sustainability Article The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies Flavio R. Arroyo M. 1,2,* and Luis J. Miguel 1,* 1 Systems Engineering and Automatic Control, School of Industrial Engineering, Paseo del Cauce s/n, University of Valladolid, 47011 Valladolid, Spain 2 Faculty of Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Av. Universitaria, Central University of Ecuador, Quito 170129, Ecuador * Correspondence: fl[email protected] (F.R.A.M.); [email protected] (L.J.M.) Received: 29 November 2019; Accepted: 8 December 2019; Published: 18 December 2019 Abstract: Climate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO2 emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO2 emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO2 emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO2, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO2 that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period. Keywords: Business as usual (BAU); global warming; energy intensity; energy efficiency; CO2 emissions; energy policies 1. Introduction The scientific evidence is overwhelming for the proposition that global warming is due in great measure to the increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, as is the fact that the increase in CO2 concentration is due to human activity [1–4]. Climate change is currently one of the most pervasive and threatening problems. In many places, the changes in temperature are already placing ecosystems under stress and are also affecting human well-being [2]. Environmental change is happening at a much faster rate than previously thought, making it imperative that governments act now to reverse the damage that has been done to the planet [1,5]. The World Health Organization estimates that more than seven million people die every year due to poor air quality, and that three million of those deaths are premature. Several studies have shown that air pollution associated with the production and use of energy directly affects air quality and climate [6–12]. As global Gross domestic product (GDP) grew between 2014 and 2016, global fossil fuel emissions stagnated. However, this trend did not continue, and in 2017 global emissions increased by 1.6%. The projections of the Global Carbon Project suggest that CO2 emissions will grow by around 2.7%, reaching 37.1 gigatons by the year 3000 [4]. The main sources of air pollution are associated with inefficient transport systems, the use of electrical energy produced in power plants that consume fossil fuels, and also industrial activities. Sustainability 2020, 12, 20; doi:10.3390/su12010020 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 2 of 21 Between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 310 GTCO . About 40% of these emissions have remained in the atmosphere (880 35 ± 2 ± GTCO2)[5]; the rest have been removed from the atmosphere and stored on land (in plants and soils) and in theSustainability ocean. People’s 2020, 12, x FOR life PEER expectancy REVIEW is threatened by climate change through the2 of limitation 22 of access to water, food, medical care, and land. Therefore, it is important to reduce the consumption of Between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 fossil fuels and increase the use of renewable energy in order to minimize CO emissions [13]. ± 310 GTCO2. About 40% of these emissions have remained in the atmosphere (880 ±2 35 GTCO2) [5]; Sustainabilitythe rest have of been power removed systems from withthe atmosphere high renewable and stored energy on land penetration(in plants and ratessoils) and is a in topic the of major interest, especiallyocean. People’s when life considering expectancy is thethreatened intermittency by climate of change renewable through energy the limitation source of (RES)access to production and the actualwater, growingfood, medical trend care, of and energy land. 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