SPECIAL REPORT
Pre-election political Panorama – Colombia
Bogotá, February 2014
BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO PRE-ELECTION POLITICAL PANORAMA – COLOMBIA
1. INTRODUCTION 1.INTRODUCTION 2. GENERAL ANALYSIS LLORENTE & CUENCA’s team produced the following document which 3. ELECTORAL MAP ACCORDING summarizes the present political panorama with a view to the elections TO THE POLITICAL PARTIES of the Senate (9th of March), the House of Representatives (9th of POLITICIANS March) and the Presidency of the Republic (25th of May) which will take AUTHORS place during this year. LLORENTE & CUENCA The main political parties and their stance with regards the popular election day are presented.
2. GENERAL ANALYSIS
After months of uncertainty and speculations, the Colombian political panorama is beginning to clarify itself. The announcement of the ex- President Álvaro Uribe Vélez to head the list of the Centro Democrático (Democratic Centre) for the Senate, the definition of candidates of other collectives for the Presidency, the announcement of President Juan Manual Santos to stand for re-election and the beginning of campaigns for the candidates for the seats in the Senate and the Camera of Representatives, are facts which begin to outline the electoral future.
In the specific case of the presidential elections, the most prominent facts are focused on the announcement of the Partido Conservador (Conservative Party) to present its own candidate, leaving behind the alliance with the president Juan Manuel Santos for re-election. In addition, the latter has still not defined who will be his formula in the Vice-presidency, but speculations suggest that it could be the former Director of the National Police, Oscar Naranjo.
A third leading actor in the campaign for the presidency is Oscar Iván Zuluaga, representative of the Centro Democrático (Democratic Centre) party, who has the support of the former president Uribe.
It is worth highlighting that for the time being, only three parties support the re-election of Santos: Partido Liberal (Colombian Liberal Party), Cambio Radical (Radical Change) and Partido de La U (Social Party of National Unity or Party of the U). With this panorama, the current President will stand for the presidential elections in a coalition with these movements and it is expected that the logos of the three parties will appear in the space designated for the candidate for president on the electoral leaflet.
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Along different lines and based • Although the country has on the most recent survey already began to breath the elaborated by Ipsos-Napoleón atmosphere of the electoral Franco for the media alliance of campaign, no candidate RCN Radio, RCN Televisión, La stands out or makes an FM and Revista Semana, “four important difference. months before the first round, Santos maintains his lead, but • Zuluaga has not been able an atypical trend continues. The to shorten the distance that Colombians don’t know who to separates him from president vote for”1. Santos and it isn’t even a double digit figure. The most relevant data of this one, the first presidential survey of • The downward trend impasse 2014, allowed the following facts to of Oscar Ivan contrasts even be established2: more dramatically with the tendencies in favor • It would be historical for the of the former president country that the blank vote Álvaro Uribe. Whilst the won. In a scenario of a second presidential aspiration of round, the trend continues: a Zuluaga is paralyzed in one-to-one between Santos, the the opinion polls, Uribe blank votes and the indecisive. registers a favorability of
1 “¡Nadie despega en las encuestas!” (Nobody stands out in the opinion polls!), Revista Semana, 1st of February 2014. Online version: http://www.semana.com/nacion/ articulo/encuestas-presidenciales-continuan-con-su-tendencia-nadie-despega/375790-3 2 “¡Nadie despega en las encuestas!” (Nobody stands out in the opinion polls!), Revista Semana, 1st February 2014. Online version: http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/ encuestas-presidenciales-continuan-con-su-tendencia-nadie-despega/375790-3 source: week
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61% and has grown 7 points Partido Liberal (Liberal Party) since April last year. • Presidential Elections: The • Peñalosa is the second Partido Liberal (Liberal Party) candidate with the best supports the re-election of image after President Santos, President Juan Manuel Santos. with 34%. Simón Gaviria, president of the above-mentioned collective • The leadership of Alianza assured in an interview with Verde (Green Party) obeys the newspaper El País that: the guidelines of the “we only have a Plan A, that is mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo President Juan Manuel Santos… Petro, staunch opponent The President has important of Peñalosa. Although he majorities consolidated within aspires to participate in liberalism, but the party does the internal consultation not have a commitment nor a process of the Alliance the Plan B for any scenario; here following 9th of March, it there is only a Plan A”. is not certain that they will convene it or that they will • Elections – Senate and allow him to compete. Chamber of Representatives: After the last National • Pessimism continues to set Convention of the Partido the tone in the electorate: six Liberal (Liberal Party), this of every ten Colombians think collective named Horacio that the country is on the Serpa as head of the list and wrong track. what’s more he thinks that he would obtain 25 seats in the • Although the favorable image Senate and 50 in the Chamber of President Santos has won of Representatives. 17 percentage points from the drop in September last year, it Regarding this issue, the is one point below the negative president of the Congress, value, which is 47 per cent. Juan Fernando Cristo, sustained that “the election of Serpa as head of the list 3. ELECTORAL MAP was a unanimous decision of ACCORDING TO THE the Senate representatives”3. POLITICAL PARTIES This comment was made as a result of the rumors of fights The electoral panorama is of Serpa with the Senator Juan presented here below according Manuel Galán and the former to the political parties. representative from Valle,
3 “Partido Liberal eligió a Horacio Serpa como cabeza de lista al Senado” (The Partido Liberal chose Horacio Serpa as head of the list to the Senate). El País, 30th of November 2013. Online version: http://www.elpais.com.co/elpais/colom bia/noticias/ inicia-convencion-partido-liberal-para-refrendar-decisiones
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Sigifredo López, to occupy been given to the re-election the position that Serpa holds of president Santos. currently. The conservative meeting had In this context, Galán affirmed one of its highest moments after the afore-mentioned of tension when the Senator Convention that the party Roberto Gerlein, head of “returned to the era in the list for the Senate and which the opportunities for responsible for defending the participation were closed and position that supported re- the decisions were taken behind election, was booed when he peoples back in secret meetings was about to participate in a of local chiefs and landowners. debate in front of his fellow We have recycled the system of party members and had to fake prefabricated conventions leave the premises. where everything is decided without deliberation or “The Senator assured that debate”4. never before in an event of the Partido Conservador Partido Conservador (Conserva- (Conservative Party) he had tive Party) to risk his physical integrity. He demanded guarantees • Presidential Elections: to the Convention and even The Partido Conservador threatened to leave the (Conservative Party) was the summit in the company of the protagonist of one of the most other congressmen and some outstanding political events other managing directors so far in 2014, after having such as the one of Antioquía, voted in the last National one of the most powerful ones Convention of the Partido of the party and rendering Conservador (Convervative invalid what is decided in Party) the former Defense the summit. With cries of Minister, Marta Lucía Ramírez “get out of here wimps” as candidate for the next the most extremist group presidential elections, amongst the conventionalists leaving behind in this way prevented the participation the support that had initially of Gerlein”5.
4 ibid 5 “Marta Lucía Ramírez, candidata del partido Conservador” (Marta Lucía Ramírez, candidate of the Partido Conservador). Revista Semana, 26th of January 2014. Online version: http://www.semana.com/nacion/elecciones-2014/articulo/marta-lucia- ramirez-candidata-del-partido-conservador/372166-3
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In the face of this situation, the responsibility of the national former vice-minister of Justice unity, a coalition which has Guillermo Reyes will refute amongst others, two strong the Conservative Convention parties, Partido Liberal (Liberal before the National Electoral Party) and Cambio Radical Convention. (Radical Change). Radical.
• Elections — Senate and These two collectives are House of Representatives: convinced that they will The president of the party, support Santos in the re- Omar Yepes Alzate ratified election; however, some Senator Roberto Gerlein as time ago the liberals wanted head of the list for the Senate. President Santos to identify “He was already chosen to himself as a member of this head the lists. Of 22 senators, party. Although the leader 18 signed a letter asking the began his political career in National Directive to give liberalism, the announcement Gerlein the number 1 and of his presidential candidature of course this petition was was done with the support of accepted, in such a way that La U. the Senator at this moment is already ratified as head of • Elections- Senate and list”, Yepes pointed out6. Chamber of Representatives: The list is headed by the former The objective of the Partido Senator Jimmy Chamorro, Conservador (Conservative followed by General Freddy Party) is to maintain the Padilla de León, one of the number of Congressmen that brains of the “Jaque” Operation exist currently in the Congress in which Íngrid Betancourt was (22 Senators). released; and in third place Jorge Eduardo Gechen, who The list inscribed in the was kidnapped by the FARC Delegate Registry Office (Revolutionary Armed Forces of of Cunina is made up of 63 Colombia) for nearly six years aspirants of whom 22 are and was Senator during the currently congressmen. Government of Andrés Pastrana (1998-2002). Partido de Unidad Nacional / Partido de la U (Social Party of Uribe Centro Democrático National Unity or Party of the U) (Democratic Centre)
• Presidential Elections: The • Presidential Elections: Oscar re-election of President Iván Zuluaga, former Finance Juan Manuel Santos is the Minister during the second
6 “Roberto Gerlein, cabeza de lista al Senado por el Partido Conservador” (Roberto Gerlein, head of the list to the Senate for the Partido Conservador). El Espectador, 3rd of December 2013. Online version: http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/politica/ roberto-gerlein-cabeza-de-lista-al-senado-el-partido-co-articulo-461913
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presidential period of Álvaro Maria del Rosario Guerra, the Uribe Vélez (2006-2010) was journalist Paloma Valencia, elected in the convention political analyst at BluRadio, of the Centro Democrático Ana Mercedes Gómez, former (Democratic Centre) party director of El Colombiano as the only presidential and Susana Correa Borrero, candidate of the Uribista a businesswoman from Valle school of thought. del Cauca.
In spite of the bad forecasts In the following positions, that the opinion polls provide, amongst others, are Alfredo Zuluaga is confident that he Rangel, Fernando Nicolás will have a good result in the Araújo son of the former next elections. His campaign Minister and former President has been characterized by of the Partido Conservador a strong criticism of Santos (Conservative Party) Fernando government and by the need Araújo and the controversial to rescue the virtues that the cousin of Pablo Escobar, Uribista government had. José Obdulio Gaviria. The inclusion of Gaviria has caused Recently, the national controversy not only amongst press announced that the detractors of Uribe, but it once the elections for the has also caused division inside Senate and the Chamber of the political movement. Oscar Representatives take place, Iván Zuluaga, candidate of Zuluaga would look for an Uribism, asked José Obdulio alliance with the candidate Gaviria in 2013 to take his name of the Partido Conservador, off the list. Gaviria answered
Marta Lucía Ramírez. saying that he “has the keys of the Centro Democrático • Elections — Senate and (Democratic Centre)”. Chamber of Representatives: Uribe Centro Democrático Alianza Partido Verde y (Democratic Centre) was one Progresistas: Alianza Verde of the first parties to announce (Green Party) the lists of candidates for the elections to the Senate • Presidential Elections: In of the Republic. The former order to be able to face the President Uribe will launch his 2014 elections, the Partido campaign with 50 candidates Verde (Green Party) which was and his bet is to obtain a third part of the Coalición Nacional part of the Congress. (National Coalition), decided to make a strategic alliance The former President Álvaro with the Partido Progresista Uribe will head the list to (Progressive Party), political the Senate and four women movement that supports the will follow him: the former current Mayor of Bogotá, minister of Communications Gustavo Petro.
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The collective will choose its included in this list were candidate through a popular Unión Patriótica (Patriotic consultation or an inter-party Union) which will be led by consultation next 9th of March, the journalist Carlos Lozano; in which the former Mayor of Progresistas (Progressive Bogotá, Enrique Peñalosa and Party) headed precisely by the senators John Sudarsky Navarro; the Podemos (We and Camilo Romero will run Can) Colombia movement, for election. led by the former Mayor of Cali Jorge Iván Ospina; the For his part, Lucho Garzón, National Victims movement, one of the strongest the animal rights groups and members of the Partido the LGTBI community had Verde (Green Party) will not a space in the lists to the participate in this alliance, Congress…It is a plural list after accepting to continue that will work together and it his job in the Presidency will be the big surprise in the of the Republic in the High next elections”7. Council for Social Dialogue and Citizen Mobilization. Polo Democrático (Alternative Democratic Pole) By the 7th of February at the latest, the party will have • Presidential Elections: Clara to confirm the mechanism López is Polo Democrático’s with which it will choose its (Alternative Democrative candidate. Pole) candidate for 2014 elections. López, who was • Elections — Senate and the Mayor of Bogotá, is a Chamber of Representatives: woman close to the principles This party aspires to obtain of liberalism but linked to the 25 seats, for which it named economic doctrines of the as head of list the former Colombian left. governor of Nariño, Antonio Navarro. Other strong cards According to the media, the of this movement are Claudia proposal of López is one of López, Jorge Ospina, Franklin the few in which the ideal of Legro and Carlos Lozano. the political party stands out above country’s situation and According to Navarro, “The personal political ideals. list of Alianza Verde (Green Alliance) is the most diverse However, a series of facts and pluralistic one of the and scandals have spoilt the electoral market. The parties image of the party such as the
7 “Alianza verde le apuesta a obtener 25 curules” (Alianza Verde seeks to obtain 25 seats). Revista Semana, 17th of December 2013. Online version: http://www.semana. com/nacion/articulo/elecciones-2014-verdes-presentan-candidatos-congreso/368732-3
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Carrusel de la Contratación party Cambio Radical (Radical (Contracting Carrousel) Change) will support the re- scandal, which could play election of Juan Manuel Santos. against the aspiration to be Germán Vargas Lleras, the next inhabitant of the who is envisioned as the Casa de Nariño possible candidate of this movement, was named • Elections – Senate and by President Juan Manuel Chamber of Representatives: Santos as strategic director The media have assured of his re-election campaign. that the Polo Democrático Alternativo (Alternative • Elections – Senate Democratic Pole) bet they will and Chamber of win more than 450 thousand Representatives: Cambio votes, the amount they need Radical (Radical Change) to preserve their legal status. has as head of list Carlos According to political analysts, Fernando Galán, son of Luis the stronghold would be in the Carlos Galán (candidate to Senator Jorge Enrique Robledo the presidency of Colombia in as head of the list, one of the 1986-1990 and assassinated most influential people in by the old Medellín Cartel) national politics and opponent and brother of the senator of the Santos Government. Juan Manuel Galán. The son of the senator Fuad Char, Cambio Radical (Radical Change) Arturo Char Chaljub and Dusan Albin Vélez, brother • Presidential Elections: Carlos of the mayor of Cartagena, Fernando Galán, president of Dionisio Vélez are also on the community ensured that the the list.
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AUTHORS
María Esteve is Director General of LLORENTE & CUENCA in Colombia. She graduated as Social Communicator at the Javeriana University. She has a vast experience in the fields of Crisis Communications and Public Affairs, thanks to her activity in several communication firms and private companies. She joined LLORENTE & CUENCA in July 2013, after working as the Corporative Communication Director of CoprBanca for two years. She started her career in Dattis Consultants, where she remained for 10 years and reached the position of Consulting Manager, which entailed dealing with clients such as Ecopetrol, BBVA, Telefónica and Gómez-Pinzón Zuleta, among others. [email protected]
Diego Gonzalez is Junior Consultant for LLORENTE & CUENCA in Colombia. Diego is a Social Communicator and Journalist from the University of La Sabana and specialized in Strategic Communication at the Sergio Arboleda University. He also has a Degree in Communication and Political Marketing at the University of La Sabana. He has a vast experience in the field of Organizational Communication thanks to his work in communication and marketing agencies such as CMS-Communication and Marketing Solutions, Openmind Networking and the Foundation for Press Freedom (FLIP). [email protected]
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