SPECIAL REPORT Pre-election political Panorama – Colombia Bogotá, February 2014 BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO PRE-ELECTION POLITICAL PANORAMA – COLOMBIA 1. INTRODUCTION 1.INTRODUCTION 2. GENERAL ANALYSIS LLORENTE & CUENCA’s team produced the following document which 3. ELECTORAL MAP ACCORDING summarizes the present political panorama with a view to the elections TO THE POLITICAL PARTIES of the Senate (9th of March), the House of Representatives (9th of POLITICIANS March) and the Presidency of the Republic (25th of May) which will take AUTHORS place during this year. LLORENTE & CUENCA The main political parties and their stance with regards the popular election day are presented. 2. GENERAL ANALYSIS After months of uncertainty and speculations, the Colombian political panorama is beginning to clarify itself. The announcement of the ex- President Álvaro Uribe Vélez to head the list of the Centro Democrático (Democratic Centre) for the Senate, the definition of candidates of other collectives for the Presidency, the announcement of President Juan Manual Santos to stand for re-election and the beginning of campaigns for the candidates for the seats in the Senate and the Camera of Representatives, are facts which begin to outline the electoral future. In the specific case of the presidential elections, the most prominent facts are focused on the announcement of the Partido Conservador (Conservative Party) to present its own candidate, leaving behind the alliance with the president Juan Manuel Santos for re-election. In addition, the latter has still not defined who will be his formula in the Vice-presidency, but speculations suggest that it could be the former Director of the National Police, Oscar Naranjo. A third leading actor in the campaign for the presidency is Oscar Iván Zuluaga, representative of the Centro Democrático (Democratic Centre) party, who has the support of the former president Uribe. It is worth highlighting that for the time being, only three parties support the re-election of Santos: Partido Liberal (Colombian Liberal Party), Cambio Radical (Radical Change) and Partido de La U (Social Party of National Unity or Party of the U). With this panorama, the current President will stand for the presidential elections in a coalition with these movements and it is expected that the logos of the three parties will appear in the space designated for the candidate for president on the electoral leaflet. 2 PRE-ELECTION POLITICAL PANORAMA – COLOMBIA Along different lines and based • Although the country has on the most recent survey already began to breath the elaborated by Ipsos-Napoleón atmosphere of the electoral Franco for the media alliance of campaign, no candidate RCN Radio, RCN Televisión, La stands out or makes an FM and Revista Semana, “four important difference. months before the first round, Santos maintains his lead, but • Zuluaga has not been able an atypical trend continues. The to shorten the distance that Colombians don’t know who to separates him from president vote for”1. Santos and it isn’t even a double digit figure. The most relevant data of this one, the first presidential survey of • The downward trend impasse 2014, allowed the following facts to of Oscar Ivan contrasts even be established2: more dramatically with the tendencies in favor • It would be historical for the of the former president country that the blank vote Álvaro Uribe. Whilst the won. In a scenario of a second presidential aspiration of round, the trend continues: a Zuluaga is paralyzed in one-to-one between Santos, the the opinion polls, Uribe blank votes and the indecisive. registers a favorability of 1 “¡Nadie despega en las encuestas!” (Nobody stands out in the opinion polls!), Revista Semana, 1st of February 2014. Online version: http://www.semana.com/nacion/ articulo/encuestas-presidenciales-continuan-con-su-tendencia-nadie-despega/375790-3 2 “¡Nadie despega en las encuestas!” (Nobody stands out in the opinion polls!), Revista Semana, 1st February 2014. Online version: http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/ encuestas-presidenciales-continuan-con-su-tendencia-nadie-despega/375790-3 source: week 3 PRE-ELECTION POLITICAL PANORAMA – COLOMBIA 61% and has grown 7 points Partido Liberal (Liberal Party) since April last year. • Presidential Elections: The • Peñalosa is the second Partido Liberal (Liberal Party) candidate with the best supports the re-election of image after President Santos, President Juan Manuel Santos. with 34%. Simón Gaviria, president of the above-mentioned collective • The leadership of Alianza assured in an interview with Verde (Green Party) obeys the newspaper El País that: the guidelines of the “we only have a Plan A, that is mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo President Juan Manuel Santos… Petro, staunch opponent The President has important of Peñalosa. Although he majorities consolidated within aspires to participate in liberalism, but the party does the internal consultation not have a commitment nor a process of the Alliance the Plan B for any scenario; here following 9th of March, it there is only a Plan A”. is not certain that they will convene it or that they will • Elections – Senate and allow him to compete. Chamber of Representatives: After the last National • Pessimism continues to set Convention of the Partido the tone in the electorate: six Liberal (Liberal Party), this of every ten Colombians think collective named Horacio that the country is on the Serpa as head of the list and wrong track. what’s more he thinks that he would obtain 25 seats in the • Although the favorable image Senate and 50 in the Chamber of President Santos has won of Representatives. 17 percentage points from the drop in September last year, it Regarding this issue, the is one point below the negative president of the Congress, value, which is 47 per cent. Juan Fernando Cristo, sustained that “the election of Serpa as head of the list 3. ELECTORAL MAP was a unanimous decision of ACCORDING TO THE the Senate representatives”3. POLITICAL PARTIES This comment was made as a result of the rumors of fights The electoral panorama is of Serpa with the Senator Juan presented here below according Manuel Galán and the former to the political parties. representative from Valle, 3 “Partido Liberal eligió a Horacio Serpa como cabeza de lista al Senado” (The Partido Liberal chose Horacio Serpa as head of the list to the Senate). El País, 30th of November 2013. Online version: http://www.elpais.com.co/elpais/colom bia/noticias/ inicia-convencion-partido-liberal-para-refrendar-decisiones 4 PRE-ELECTION POLITICAL PANORAMA – COLOMBIA Sigifredo López, to occupy been given to the re-election the position that Serpa holds of president Santos. currently. The conservative meeting had In this context, Galán affirmed one of its highest moments after the afore-mentioned of tension when the Senator Convention that the party Roberto Gerlein, head of “returned to the era in the list for the Senate and which the opportunities for responsible for defending the participation were closed and position that supported re- the decisions were taken behind election, was booed when he peoples back in secret meetings was about to participate in a of local chiefs and landowners. debate in front of his fellow We have recycled the system of party members and had to fake prefabricated conventions leave the premises. where everything is decided without deliberation or “The Senator assured that debate”4. never before in an event of the Partido Conservador Partido Conservador (Conserva- (Conservative Party) he had tive Party) to risk his physical integrity. He demanded guarantees • Presidential Elections: to the Convention and even The Partido Conservador threatened to leave the (Conservative Party) was the summit in the company of the protagonist of one of the most other congressmen and some outstanding political events other managing directors so far in 2014, after having such as the one of Antioquía, voted in the last National one of the most powerful ones Convention of the Partido of the party and rendering Conservador (Convervative invalid what is decided in Party) the former Defense the summit. With cries of Minister, Marta Lucía Ramírez “get out of here wimps” as candidate for the next the most extremist group presidential elections, amongst the conventionalists leaving behind in this way prevented the participation the support that had initially of Gerlein”5. 4 ibid 5 “Marta Lucía Ramírez, candidata del partido Conservador” (Marta Lucía Ramírez, candidate of the Partido Conservador). Revista Semana, 26th of January 2014. Online version: http://www.semana.com/nacion/elecciones-2014/articulo/marta-lucia- ramirez-candidata-del-partido-conservador/372166-3 5 PRE-ELECTION POLITICAL PANORAMA – COLOMBIA In the face of this situation, the responsibility of the national former vice-minister of Justice unity, a coalition which has Guillermo Reyes will refute amongst others, two strong the Conservative Convention parties, Partido Liberal (Liberal before the National Electoral Party) and Cambio Radical Convention. (Radical Change). Radical. • Elections — Senate and These two collectives are House of Representatives: convinced that they will The president of the party, support Santos in the re- Omar Yepes Alzate ratified election; however, some Senator Roberto Gerlein as time ago the liberals wanted head of the list for the Senate. President Santos to identify “He was already chosen to himself as a member of this head the lists. Of 22 senators, party. Although the leader 18 signed a letter asking the began his political career in National Directive to give liberalism, the announcement Gerlein the number 1 and of his presidential candidature of course this petition was was done with the support of accepted, in such a way that La U. the Senator at this moment is already ratified as head of • Elections- Senate and list”, Yepes pointed out6.