2018 Elections in Colombia: a Test for Peace?
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Colombia: Current and Future Political, Economic and Security Trends
Colombia: Current and Future Political, Economic and Security Trends By Stephen J. Randall, FRSC Fellow of the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute and Director, Institute for United States Policy Research Jillian Dowding, MA Assistant Director, Institute for United States Policy Research December 2006 Prepared for the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute 1600, 530 – 8th Avenue S.W., Calgary, AB T2P 3S8 www.cdfai.org © Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute Introduction For some analysts Colombia is seen to be at a crossroads, with the capacity to move beyond more than thirty years of internal conflict and realize its potential, especially in the economic sector. This paper outlines the current political, economic and security situation in the country and explores some of the possible scenarios for the next five to ten year period.1 The authors suggest that it is critically important to examine the ways in which the political and strategic environment has evolved over the past decade in order to understand the current situation and predict where the country will likely move in the near future. Most analysts of Colombia concur that Colombia has not realized its economic potential in the past fifty years because of the internal conflict, a conflict that has its roots in both ideological differences as well as socio-economic inequalities, but which have been greatly exacerbated since the emergence of the narcotics industry in the 1970s. That internal conflict has defeated government after government in its effort to develop a broader vision of the role that Colombia could play in inter-American relations or economically to move into the developed world. -
IFES Faqs on Elections in Colombia
Elections in Colombia 2018 Presidential Election Frequently Asked Questions Americas International Foundation for Electoral Systems 2011 Crystal Drive | Floor 10 | Arlington, VA 22202 | www.IFES.org May 14, 2018 Frequently Asked Questions When is Election Day? ................................................................................................................................... 1 Who are citizens voting for on Election Day? ............................................................................................... 1 When will the newly elected government take office? ................................................................................ 1 Who is eligible to vote?................................................................................................................................. 1 How many candidates are registered for the May 27 elections? ................................................................. 1 Who are the candidates? .............................................................................................................................. 1 How many registered voters are there? ....................................................................................................... 2 What is the structure of the government? ................................................................................................... 2 Are there any quotas in place? ..................................................................................................................... 3 What is the -
Elections in Colombia: 2014 Presidential Elections
Elections in Colombia: 2014 Presidential Elections Frequently Asked Questions Latin America and the Caribbean International Foundation for Electoral Systems 1850 K Street, NW | Fifth Floor | Washington, D.C. 20006 | www.IFES.org May 23, 2014 Frequently Asked Questions When is Election Day? ................................................................................................................................... 1 Who are citizens voting for on Election Day? ............................................................................................... 1 Who is eligible to vote?................................................................................................................................. 1 How many candidates are registered for the May 25 elections? ................................................................. 1 Who are the candidates running for President?........................................................................................... 1 How many registered voters are there? ....................................................................................................... 3 What is the structure of the government? ................................................................................................... 3 What is the gender balance within the candidate list? ................................................................................ 3 What is the election management body? What are its powers? ................................................................. 3 How many polling -
Assessing the US Role in the Colombian Peace Process
An Uncertain Peace: Assessing the U.S. Role in the Colombian Peace Process Global Policy Practicum — Colombia | Fall 2018 Authors Alexandra Curnin Mark Daniels Ashley DuPuis Michael Everett Alexa Green William Johnson Io Jones Maxwell Kanefield Bill Kosmidis Erica Ng Christina Reagan Emily Schneider Gaby Sommer Professor Charles Junius Wheelan Teaching Assistant Lucy Tantum 2 Table of Contents Important Abbreviations 3 Introduction 5 History of Colombia 7 Colombia’s Geography 11 2016 Peace Agreement 14 Colombia’s Political Landscape 21 U.S. Interests in Colombia and Structure of Recommendations 30 Recommendations | Summary Table 34 Principal Areas for Peacebuilding Rural Development | Land Reform 38 Rural Development | Infrastructure Development 45 Rural Development | Security 53 Rural Development | Political and Civic Participation 57 Rural Development | PDETs 64 Combating the Drug Trade 69 Disarmament and Socioeconomic Reintegration of the FARC 89 Political Reintegration of the FARC 95 Justice and Human Rights 102 Conclusion 115 Works Cited 116 3 Important Abbreviations ADAM: Areas de DeBartolo Alternative Municipal AFP: Alliance For Progress ARN: Agencies para la Reincorporación y la Normalización AUC: Las Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia CSDI: Colombia Strategic Development Initiative DEA: Drug Enforcement Administration ELN: Ejército de Liberación Nacional EPA: Environmental Protection Agency ETCR: Espacio Territoriales de Capacitación y Reincorporación FARC-EP: Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo GDP: Gross -
Colombia Country Fact Sheet
National Documentation Packages, Issue Papers and Country Fact Sheets Page 1 of 4 Home > Research > National Documentation Packages, Issue Papers and Country Fact Sheets Country Fact Sheet COLOMBIA April 2007 Disclaimer 1. GENERAL INFORMATION Official name Republic of Colombia. Geography Colombia is located at the northern point of South America and shares borders with Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil and Venezuela. Colombia has a total of 3,208 km of coastline on the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The total area is 1,038,700 km2. The coast has a tropical climate, the interior plateaux are temperate and some Andean areas have snow year-round. Population and density Population: 43,593,035 (July 2006 estimate). Density: 39.7 persons per km2. Principal cities and populations (2005 estimate) Bogota (political capital) 8,350,000; Medellin 3,450,000; Cali 2,700,000; Barranquilla 1,925,000; Cartagena 1,075,000. Languages Spanish (official). Religions Catholic 90%. Ethnic groups Mestizo 58%, white 20%, mulatto 14%, black 4%, mixed black-Amerindian 3%, Amerindian 1%. Approximately 75 % of Colombians are of mixed-blood. Demographics http://www.irb-cisr.gc.ca:8080/Publications/PubIP_DI.aspx?id=209&pcid=359 2/23/2011 National Documentation Packages, Issue Papers and Country Fact Sheets Page 2 of 4 Population growth rate: 1.46% (2006 estimate). Infant mortality rate: 20.35 deaths/1,000 live births. Life expectancy at birth: 72.6 (2004). Fertility rate: 2.54 children born/woman (2006 estimate). Literacy: 92.8% of people aged 15 and older can read and write (2004). Currency Colombian Peso (COP). -
Understanding the Deterioratin in US-Colombian Relations, 1995
UNDERSTANTING THE DETERIORATIN IN US-COLOMBIAN RELATIONS, 1995- 1997. CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN THE WAR AGAINST DRUGS BY ALEXANDRA GUÁQUETA M. PHIL. THEIS SOMERVILLE COLLEGE, UNIVERISTY OF OXFORD APRIL, 1998 INTRODUCTION Colombia, unlike the majority of its Latin American and Caribbean neighbours, had a remarkable record of friendly relations with the United States throughout most of the twentieth century. However, this situation changed in 1995 when the U.S. downgraded Colombia's previous status of alliance in the war against illegal drugs by granting it a conditional certification (national interest waiver) on its performance in drug control.1 The drug certification is the annual process by which the U.S. evaluates other countries' accomplishments in drug control making foreign aid conditional to their degree of cooperation. It also involves economic sanctions when cooperation is deemed unsatisfactory. In 1996 and 1997 Bill Clinton's administration decertified Colombia completely. The media reported Colombia's 'Cuba-nisation' in Washington as U.S. policy makers became obsessed with isolating the Colombian president, Ernesto Samper.2 Colombia was officially branded as a 'threat to democracy' and to the U.S.3 1 See chapter 3 for detailed explanaition of certification. 2 Expression used by journalist Henry Raymount in Washington and quoted in El Tiempo, November 6, 1996, p. 11A. 3 U.S. Department of State, Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL), International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) 1997, Washington D.C., March 1997. p. xli. 1 Colombia and the U.S. quarrelled so severely that they perceived each other as enemies. 'Never before, had relations between the U.S. -
Elite Bargains and Political Deals Project: Colombia Case Study
Elite Bargains and Political Deals Project: Colombia Case Study Roddy Brett Stabilisation Unit February 2018 This report has been produced by an independent expert. The views contained within do not necessarily reflect UK government policy. Author details The author is Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor with the School of International Relations at the University of St Andrews, and the Director of the Masters Programme in Peace and Conflict Studies and Acting Director of the Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies. He has acted as Advisor to the United Nations Development Programme in both Colombia and Guatemala, to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in Guatemala and as Advisor on Indigenous Affairs to the Norwegian Embassy in Guatemala. Background to Elite Bargains and Political Deals Project This case study is one of a series commissioned to support the Stabilisation Unit’s (SU’s) development of an evidence base relating to elite bargains and political deals. The project explores how national and international interventions have and have not been effective in fostering and sustaining political deals and elite bargains; and whether or not these political deals and elite bargains have helped reduce violence, increased local, regional and national stability and contributed to the strengthening of the relevant political settlement. Drawing on the case studies, the SU has developed a series of summary papers that bring together the project’s key findings and will underpin the revision of the existing ‘UK Approach to Stabilisation’ (2014) paper. The project also contributes to the SU’s growing engagement and expertise in this area and provides a comprehensive analytical resource for those inside and outside government. -
Political Finance and the Equal Participation of Women in Colombia: a Situation Analysis
Political finance and the equal participation of women in Colombia: a situation analysis The impact of economic resources on the political participation of women has become a prominent issue in the field of comparative political finance. In recent Kevin Casas-Zamora and Elin Falguera years, there has been a growing recognition that politics dominated by money is, more often than not, politics dominated by men. It is not surprising that the issue has moved to the forefront of debates on gender and political finance. This report assesses the extent to which political finance is a significant obstacle to women running for political office. It focuses on the experience of Colombia, a country that, like many other Latin American countries, continues to struggle with the legacies of pervasive social, economic and political inequality that disproportionately affect women. It explores the role of political finance in hindering women’s access to political power and its relative weight with respect to other obstacles to women’s political participation. It also suggests a number of institutional changes that might ameliorate some of the problems identified, while being fully cognizant of the limits to institutional change recasting deep-rooted gender imbalances. International IDEA NIMD Strömsborg Passage 31 SE-103 34 Stockholm 2511 AB The Hague Sweden The Netherlands T +46 (0) 8 698 37 00 T +31 (0)70 311 54 64 F +46 (0) 8 20 24 22 F +31 (0)70 311 54 65 [email protected] [email protected] www.idea.int www.nimd.org About the organizations About the authors International IDEA Kevin Casas-Zamora is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Peter D. -
The Political Culture of Democracy in Colombia, 2011 Democratic Attitudes PostUribe
The Political Culture of Democracy in Colombia, 2011 Democratic Attitudes PostUribe Juan Carlos Rodríguez Raga, Ph.D. Universidad de los Andes Mitchell A. Seligson, Ph.D. Vanderbilt University ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… … This study was made possible thanks to support provided by the program for Democracy and Human Rights of the United States Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of the United States Agency for International Development. Bogotá, November 2011 Table of contents 3 Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................................... 7 LIST OF TABLES ..............................................................................................................................................................11 PROLOGUE: BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY ....................................................................................................................13 Acknowledgements.....................................................................................................................................................................15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................17 -
Latin America's Shifting Politics
October 2018, Volume 29, Number 4 $14.00 Latin America’s Shifting Politics Steven Levitsky Forrest Colburn and Arturo Cruz S. Alberto Vergara Carlos de la Torre Jean-Paul Faguet Laura Gamboa Kenneth Greene and Mariano Sánchez-Talanquer Democracy’s Near Misses Tom Ginsburg and Aziz Huq Liberal Democracy’s Crisis of Confidence Richard Wike and Janell Fetterolf Alexander Libman & Anastassia Obydenkova on Authoritarian Regionalism Sophie Lemi`ere on Malaysia’s Elections Christopher Carothers on Competitive Authoritarianism Tarek Masoud on Tunisian Exceptionalism Why National Identity Matters Francis Fukuyama Latin America’s Shifting Politics THE PEACE PROCESS AND COLOMBIA’S ELECTIONS Laura Gamboa Laura Gamboa is assistant professor of political science at Utah State University. She is currently working on a book that examines opposition strategies against democratically elected presidents who try to under- mine checks and balances and stay in office, effectively eroding democ- racy. Her work has been published in Political Research Quarterly and Comparative Politics. As his two terms in the presidency neared their end in 2018, Juan Manuel Santos might have expected that he would be enjoying high standing among his fellow Colombians. Having won the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize for his role as leader of a peace deal with the long-running leftist insurgency known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Co- lombia (FARC), Santos could fairly claim to be leaving his country of fifty-million people a better democracy than it had been when he first took office in 2010. The peace agreement is Colombia’s most important achievement in recent decades. Signed in November 2016, the accord ended an armed conflict that had gone on for more than five decades. -
Colombian Conservative Party, Colombian Liberal Party, Social National Unity Party
Political Highlights Government type: Presidential Republic Head of state: Ivan Duque Marquez Elections/appointments: The president is directly elected by absolute majority vote for a 4-year term Next legislative and presidential elections are due in March 2022 and May 2022 respectively Legal system: Civil law Legislative branch: Bicameral congress (108-seat Senate and 172-seat Chamber of Representatives) Major political parties: Democratic Center Party, Radical Change, Colombian Conservative Party, Colombian Liberal Party, Social National Unity Party Economic Trend Economic Indicators 2018 2019 2020* 2021^ 2022^ Nominal GDP (USD bn) 333.5 323.6 264.9 280.4 296.2 Real GDP growth (%) 2.5 3.3 -8.2 4 3.6 GDP per capita (USD) 6,692 6,423 5,207 5,457 5,713 Inflation (%) 3.2 3.5 2.4 2.1 2.5 Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.9 -4.2 -4 -3.9 -3.8 General government debt (% of GDP) 53.7 52.3 68.2 68.1 67.3 *Estimate ^Forecast Hong Kong Total Exports to Colombia Hong Kong Total Exports to Colombia (HK$ billion) (World) (Colombia) Year Colombia World 4,500 7.0 2011 2.5 3,337 4,000 2012 2.6 3,434 6.0 2013 3.4 3,560 3,500 2014 5.3 3,673 5.0 2015 5.4 3,605 3,000 2016 World 3.9 3,588 4.0 2017 3.7 3,876 2,500 2018 Colombia 6.1 4,158 2,000 2019 5.3 3,989 (HK$ billion) 3.0 2020 3.5 3,928 1,500 2.0 1,000 1.0 500 0 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Hong Kong Exports to Colombia by Product (% share) Hong Kong Exports to Colombia by Product (2020) Electrical machinery, Product 2020 apparatus and Telecommunications and sound recording -
Notes on the Implementation of the Peace Agreement in Colombia
CHALLENGES IN COLOMBIA’S CHANGING SECURITY LANDSCAPE Notes on the Implementation of the Peace Agreement in Colombia: Securing a Stable and Lasting Peace by Juan Carlos Restrepo, Presidential Security Advisor to the President of Colombia, Presidential Delegate for the implementation of security guarantees in the peace agreement between the Colombian government and FARC-EP Allow me to introduce this note with a metaphor: the urban country followed a relatively normal a peace agreement is like a marriage. One development path, for some parts of Colombia the thing is the signature on the documents, and time for development stopped running while the a very different thing is the 30 or 40 years that conflict took place in the rural parts of the country, (hopefully) follow. and half a century was lost in many regards. During that period, those regions of Colombia prioritized On June 23, 2016, after more than half a century today as “most affected by the conflict” saw very of armed confrontation between the Colombian little of the government, in the form of neither government and the FARC-EP guerrilla group, the roads, schools, nor hospitals. Various armed actors— parties signed an agreement intended to end an regular and irregular forces alike—made their armed conflict that left behind a trail of blood, presence known, however. poverty, and displacement: more than two hundred thousand people killed, a population of nearly It is now June 2018, and President Juan Manuel seven million people displaced from their territories, Santos is about to leave government after serving and more than eight million victims.