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The Tokugawa Legacy: a Survey*

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The Tokugawa Legacy: a Survey* The Economic Studies Quarterly Vol. 38, No. 4, December 1987 THE TOKUGAWA LEGACY: A SURVEY* By YASUKICHI YASUBA 1. Introduction Japan, at the time it emerged from its self-imposed seclusion from the rest of the world, used to be thought of as a backward and stagnant country. Its population had increased little during the preceding century. Fairly frequent famines were reported and infanticide was widely practiced as the major means of population control. More than three-fourths of the labor force were engaged in agriculture. How, then, was it possible for Japan to modernize itself in contrast to other late-comer coun- tries? Japan was fortunate in a sense because Western nations, preoccupied with their own affairs, did not seriously try to colonize Japan, when they reached its shores. However, there are countries which failed or showed no interest in economic development despite a similarly favor- able external environment. The question must then be asked whether the causes of the diver- gence of the course of development of Japan and other non-Western countries can be found in the differences in domestic social and economic conditions before the beginning of modern economic growth, namely, in the middle of the nineteenth century. The present paper will generally be confined to domestic social conditions toward the end of the Tokugawa Period and try to describe and evaluate part of the Tokugawa legacy in an effort to explain the later development.1) Demographic, cultural, political and economic factors will be taken up in the following sections, and the conclusion will be a general assessment. 2. Demographic Factors One of the most obvious social factors which favored Japan in the course of its industrialization after the Meiji Restoration was the relatively low rate of increase in population. The rate of natu- ral increase did not exceed 10 per thousand until around 1900, and the peak rate of increase in the 1930s was only slightly more than 15 per thousand. There is little doubt that such a slow popula- tion increase helped economic development by enabling the Japanese to achieve a higher rate of capital accumulation and requiring a lower demand for housing and related infrastructure. Despite considerable recent research in historical demography,2) the demographic state of affairs before 1920 is still less than clear. Even for the period from the Meiji Restoration to 1920 * I am grateful to Susan B. Hanley, Henry Rosovsky and C.L.J. van der Meer for comments on an earlier draft. 1) A similar, but inmost cases, more limited effort has been made by Crawcour (1965, 1974), Nakamura (1968), Umemura (1973a, 1973b). 2) For Tokugawa demographic history in particular, see the works by Akira Hayami and his associates cited below. -290- Y. Yasuba: The Tokugawa Legacy: A Survey we have conflicting estimates of vital statistics. All we know at present is the approximate size of population in 18723)(34-35 million) and the approximate rate of increase (about 5 per thousand at first, gradually rising to 15 per thousand in 1920 and subsequent years). Hence, any combination of fertility and mortality rates capable of yielding these figures cannot be rejected.4) Under the circumstances, probably the best way to shed some light on the nature of the demo- graphic transition in Japan is to compare life expectancy and, in particular, age-specific death rates Table 1 Age Specific Death Rates, Male, Japan, 1751-1923 and U.N. Model Notes: a) Ages for Yokouchiand Hida are expressedin the traditional Japaneseway. They exceedthe Westernreckoning by 1.5 years on average. b) Age groupsfor Fujito and Fukiageare 6-15, 16-45,46-65 and 66 andover. c) Averagefor the birth cohort born in 1726- 1775. d) For the population registeredat a templein Miya Mum. Age groupsare 1, 2-5, 6-10, etc. Peculiaritiesarising from using Japaneseages were correctedfor the firstthree age groups. One half of those who diedat agetwo weremoved to age one (zeroaccording to Westerncounting). Similarlyone tenth of deaths at ages5-9 and 10-14were shiftedto youngerage groups,although the mortality rate for the 15-19group was unchanged. e) Life-tablelife expectancy at age 0, estimated by a shortcut method suggestedin United Nations (1956), pp. 23-24, 26. Sources:Yokouchi: Hayami (1973), pp. 200, 204. Fujito and Fukiage:Hanley (1974), p. 133. Hida: Suda (1973),pp. 430-440. Japan, 1923: Mizushima (1963),p. 126. U.N. model: United Nations (1956),pp. 72-73 3) An incomplete registration of population was made in this year. Later estimates give the figures 34-35 million. See, for example, Mori (1935), p. 86. 4) Morita (1944), Okazaki (1962), and Yasukawa and Hirooka (1972) are some of the representative estimates. They give crude birth rates ranging between 30 and 37 for the 1870s. -291- The Economic Studies Quarterly before and after the Meiji Period. Accordingto recent studies based on religious investigations registers (shumon aratamecho), averagelife expectancyat birth or at age one tended to have been between 35 and 45.5) Since religious investigation registers do not record the deaths of infants born between the annual investigations,we are not in a position to make definitivestatements about life expectancy at birth. However, a comparison of the age-specificdeath rates of the adult population reveals that health in Tokugawavillages was no worse than in the Japan of 1923(for which life expectancy at birth for males was 41.1) or than the U.N. model correspondingto a life expectancy of 40 for males (see Table 1). Temple burial records meticulously compiled by Keizo Suda are instructive because they in- clude all deaths although under-registration cannot be ruled out. Second, they enable compari- sons to be made before and after the Meiji Period. Male life expectancy at birth, in this Hida (Gifu) villagein 1801-1850(34.7) was considerablybelow that for Japan in 1923 (41.1). This is because of higher mortality rates at ages below 10.6) Data are still limited and conflicting,7)but a few tentative conclusionsmay be presented. First health conditions for adults were relatively good. Secondly the infant mortality rate and the child mortality rate were high and were comparablewith those of LDCs before the introduction of modern medicine. Thirdly, the effective birth rate and the death rate were lower than in LDCs, setting the stage for a relativelylow rate of population increase after the Meiji Restoration. Finally, life expectancy was probably comparable to British expectancy before 1800.8) There is some evidence to indicate that a low rate of population increase was realized mainly at the expense of the poor.9) Further, there is evidence to show that it was the poor who postponed and abstained from marriage. In a village in Mino (Gifu), Akira Hayami found that the average age at first marriage was distinctly higher and the proportion of those who remained single was larger for the poor, with the result that the averagenumber of children was positively associatedwith economic status.10)A similar pattern was observed for another Mino villageby T.C. Smith. Smith also found that life expectancy was longer for peasants with large holdings than for those with small holdings.11)This and other evidence12)appear to substantiate 5) Kobayashi (1956), p. 38, Hayami (1971), p. 278, idem., (1973), p. 284, Suda (1973), p. 75, Kito (1974), p. 74, Hanley (1974), pp. 139-140, and Smith (1977a), p. 13. 6) Life expectancy can be correctly estimated from this type of data only when there is no migration of population. Probably migration may be disregarded in this particular village far from the large urban centers during the Tokugawa Period. 7) Kalland and Pedersen (1984) estimate from kakocho data that infant mortality in Fukuoka domain was as low as 100, even though there was some evidence of the underrecording of children's deaths . 8) British life expectancy is estimated to have been 35.9 in 1799-1803. Wrigley and Schofield (1981), p. 230. 9) Takahashi (1941) gives a detailed account of these practices. 10) Hayami (1974), pp. 180-181, and Hayami's worksheets. 11) Smith (1977a), pp. 51, 74, 92-94, 123. 12) Tsuda (1977) shows there was a wide discrepancy in family size according to economic status in a Kawachi (Osaka) village in 1871. The average family size for laborers was between 2.7 and 3.4, whereas the comparable figure for landowners with more than 5 koku (5 bushels of rice) was between 5.1 and 5.7 (pp. 51-56, 67-68). Towards the end of the Tokugawa Period, the extinction of poor families was often reported for Kami-Kawarabayashi, Settsu (Hyogo) [Imai and Yagi (1955), p. 76]. -292- Y. Yasuba: The Tokugawa Legacy: A Survey the thesis13)that a large proportion of population control was realized at the expense of the poor. The practice helped to prevent the polarization of people by economic status. Official population statistics reveal no trend, remaining at about 26 million during the latter half of the Tokugawa Period. The accuracy of the figures, which exclude bushi (samurai), their ser- vants, and certain other classes of people, is subject to doubt, but despite a recent effort at revi- sion,14) the stagnation thesis has yet to be definitely modified. Thus, Tokugawa society was characterized by a moderate population increase until around 1730, which was followed by a cen- tury or more of near stagnation.15) Population pressure in the middle of the eighteenth century was already as high as in the early years of Meiji. It was relieved only by the population control already referred to, labor-intensive technical changes in agriculture, and the growth of non-agri- cultural activities, to which reference will be made later.
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