VOLUMEVOL. 9 ISSUE 15 ISSUE 4 | FALL 3 | 2015 SUMMER 2021

ininFOCUSFOCUSQUARTERLY Israel: Flourishing Under Fire

David Wurmser on Israel’s War with Hamas | David M. Weinberg on the Promise of the Abraham tktk on tktk | Accords | Hussain Abdul-Hussain on Palestinian Statehood | Yoram Ettinger on Israel’s Demography | Benjamin Weinthal on John le Carré | Stuart Force and Sander Gerber on Enforcing the Taylor Force Act | Yochanan Visser on the Failed Lebanese State | Uri Gabai on Israel’s Innovation Ecosystem | Michael Eisenstadt and David Pollock on U.S.-Israel Cooperation | Shoshana Bryen reviews Three Books on Iran

ALLIANCES:Featuring AMERICAN an Interview INTERESTS with DouglasIN A CHANGING J. Feith WORLD LETTER FROM THE PUBLISHER

elcome to our annual “Israel David Weinberg describes the growth inFOCUS issue.” A few months ago, we of the Abraham Accords countries’ rela- VOLUME 15 | ISSUE 3 planned a look at Israel’s pan- tions with Israel and why the Hamas war demic policies, vaccination will not collapse the pacts as some fear – Publisher W Matthew Brooks policies, and neighbors. We were optimis- and others hope. Yoram Ettinger and Uri tic about Israel, its people and its society. Gabai bring us demographics and eco- Editor The recent round of the Hamas war against nomics – the latter being somewhat mixed, Shoshana Bryen Israel was a shocker in some ways – num- but with the potential to broaden and Associate Editors ber of rockets, scale of damage, riots by deepen Israel’s wealth. U.S.-Israel security Michael Johnson Israeli Arabs, and the rise cooperation, a mainstay of Lisa Schiffren in attacks on American and relations since the Reagan Copy Editor British Jews. But we also Administration, receives Shari Hillman

saw strong support from an update from Michael Published by: Republicans in Congress, Eisenstadt and David Jewish Policy Center Israel’s Abraham Accords Pollock. And Benjamin PO Box 77316 partners, and Central Weinthal explores John Washington, DC 20013. European governments, and surprising LeCarre’s relationship with Zionism. (202) 638-2411 support from Germany and France. Egypt Shoshana Bryen goes to the beach was, as it often is, quietly helpful. As we with Ray Takeh’s The Last Shah: America, Follow us: survey the aftermath, and fully cognizant Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty; JewishPolicyCenter of the fact that this was only one battle in Alex Vatanka’s The Battle of the Ayatollahs @theJPC Hamas’s determined war to dismantle the in Iran; and the invaluable The Fight for State of Israel, we remain optimistic about Iran: Opposition Politics, Protest, and the The opinions expressed in inFOCUS do not Israel, its people, and its society. Struggle for the Soul of a Nation by Ilan necessarily reflect those of the Jewish Policy Center, its board, or its officers. David Wurmser explains the origins Berman. of the fighting (not what you think), and If you appreciate what you’ve read, I To begin or renew your subscription, please Douglas Feith explains why it is only one encourage you to make a contribution to contact us: [email protected] round in a perpetual war. Hussein Abdul- the Jewish Policy Center. As always, you

Hussein parses Palestinian politics and can use our secure site: http://www.jew- © 2021 Jewish Policy Center Sander Gerber and Stuart Force believe re- ishpolicycenter.org/donate storing U.S. aid to the PA violates both the Sincerely, spirit and the letter of the Taylor Force Act. www.JewishPolicyCenter.org Yochanan Visser chronicles the decline of Lebanon under the increasing tight grip of Matthew Brooks, Iran’s proxy Hezbollah. Publisher

DAVID WURMSER, Ph.D., is a senior analyst at the Center YOCHANAN VISSER is Middle East analyst for several Israeli for Security Policy. (3) and Dutch news outlets. (27) DAVID M. WEINBERG is vice president of the Jerusalem URI GABAI is CEO of Start-Up Nation, an economic and re- Institute for Strategy and Security. (7) search policy institute. (30)

Featuring HUSSAIN ABDUL-HUSSAIN is a DC-based policy analyst whose MICHAEL EISENSTADT is the director of the Military and work appears both in English and Arabic. (11) Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for YORAM ETTINGER is a retired Israeli diplomat. (14) Near East Policy. DAVID POLLOCK is TWI’s director of BENJAMIN WEINTHAL is a fellow at the Foundation for Project Fikra. (33) Defense of Democracies. (17) SHOSHANA BRYEN is Senior Director of the Jewish Policy DOUGLAS J. FEITH is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute. (20) Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly. (37) STUART FORCE is a former U.S. Air Force officer and pi- lot. SANDER GERBER is the CEO of Hudson Bay Capital Management and a distinguished fellow at JINSA. (25) The Hamas War Against Israel by DAVID WURMSER

t is important to revisit the source first week of May. And yet, cancelling As the Palestinian Media Watch, and of the Hamas war in May to expose the elections was not simple, since both FLAME – an organization dedicat- the underlying political and strategic Abu Mazen’s aides and Hamas leaders ed to accuracy in media – noted, the Itrends that drove the situation to the made it clear that the latter would take to Palestinian official media organs started point of eruption. Moreover, none of the streets in a violent upheaval against broadcasting highly inflammatory and these trends are effectively suppressed the PA and Abu Mazen if he did. Abu bloody rhetoric starting on April 2. Two or resolved as a result of the war that Mazen saw no way out except to provoke particularly disturbing attacks, one a followed, which means that the coming a series of escalations that would exter- beating by three Arab youths of a Rabbi months will quite likely remain tense nalize the anticipated violence, and then in Jaffa, in the southern part of Tel Aviv, for Israel, and quite possibly again be- deflect the blame onto Israel. and another when an Arab spilled boil- come very violent. As such, the resulting two months ing liquid on a Jew entering the Old City This dangerous dynamic is exacer- of escalation, culminating in war, were of Jerusalem, were followed by violent bated by the failure of the United States set by Abu Mazen, who can properly be Arab demonstrations when police at- to preemptively and strongly signal that labelled as the crisis’ original arsonist. tempted to arrest the perpetrators. it will not allow a wedge to be driven between Washington and Jerusalem. ❚ Beginning in April ❚ Palestinians Organizing Instead, there is a strong expectation Politics among Palestinian fac- Through Social Media among various Palestinian factions and tions is often battled out through the Palestinians conducting these at- their foreign patrons that the opposite currency of Jewish blood. Once the PA tacks in early April filmed their exploits will occur and that any further violence embarked on an escalatory path, that es- and posted them to TikTok to compete will only build greater tension between calation multiplied to as many factions for the greatest number of “likes” and Israel and the United States. This then as there are among Palestinians and “approvals.” This wave of Palestinian at- would further encourage the eruption of Israeli Arabs. Like the epic art of Middle tacks on unsuspecting Jews became so violence which aligns with the underly- Eastern storytelling, the singular “um- prevalent that the escalation was dubbed ing interests of the various Palestinian brella” theme of escalation is actually the “TikTok Intifada.” factions and surrounding ambitious the product of many separate sub-tales After two weeks of these violent at- Turkish and Persian neighbors. woven into other tales which align into tacks, a small group of extremist Jews a shell or framework story. In this case, marched in the streets of Jerusalem ❚ Orchestrated Violence that unifying shell tying these separate calling for harming Arabs. Small dem- Context is everything. tales together represents a very real mo- onstrations in Jaffa near the area of Early this year, against the advice ment of danger. the April 20 attack on the Rabbi also of most of his closest aides, PA president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) called for the first Palestinian elections in well over a decade, to be held at the end of Abu Mazen saw no way out except to provoke a series May. It appears to have been a horrible miscalculation. By the end of March, it of escalations that would externalize the anticipated was painfully clear to him and everyone violence, and then deflect the blame onto Israel. else that not only would he not win, but would be trounced, with both Hamas and Marwan Barghouti’s faction of the PLO defeating him. To avoid such a devastating humili- In early April, there was a sudden took place. There were no similar acts ation, it was clear by very early April that escalation of attacks on Israeli Jews, or Jewish demonstrations prior to this. Abu Mazen would have to cancel those many of which were serious and vio- There were also one or two localized acts elections, which he eventually did the lent enough to result in hospitalization. of anonymous Jewish graffiti-spraying

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 3 with hateful slogans, and the destruc- action on the Temple Mount. One night had erupted on the Temple Mount, with tion of a few trees. in late April registered nearly three doz- hundreds injured, including many po- These incidents were isolated and en rocket attacks onto Israeli towns and lice. Rioters retreated into the mosques limited. Israeli authorities investigated cities near Gaza. The northern border on the Temple Mount, and police were and will prosecute them. Moreover, sub- heated up as well, with an increased pace forced to take positions up near them. sequent investigations, even by leftist hu- of activity by the Iranian Revolutionary This put Israel in the difficult position man rights organizations like BeTzelem, Guard Corps (IRGC) to establish its abil- of being accused of “aggression” against have been forced to admit they had been ity to attack Israel, followed by a series of the Temple Mount and threatening the misled and thus must retract some of Israeli strikes in Syria to diminish that “status quo.” The concept of status quo their accusations of Jewish violence, capability. After one Israeli strike, a stray itself is odd since over the last two de- particularly arson, which turned out to Syrian SA-5 missile flew nearly 200 km cades it has been fluid rather than static, be acts of Palestinian arson. The actual across Israel and landed near Israel’s nu- masking constantly expanding chal- Jewish demonstrations and disturbanc- clear reactor in Dimona. lenges to Israeli sovereignty and Jewish es were quickly suppressed by Israeli po- In the first week of May, the esca- and Christian access to the Temple lice and largely disappeared. lation continued. The PA then formal- Mount, at the hands of the increasingly ly canceled its planned elections and restrictive Muslim Waqf, which at this ❚ Escalating Violence blamed Israel, after which the long-silent point answers mostly to the PA. In contrast, Arab demonstrations head of the Hamas military structure, accelerated, expanded, broadened geo- Muhammad Deif, suddenly resurfaced ❚ Outside Parties graphically, and became increasingly to call for violent attacks, to include A broader context also intruded. violent. The leadership of the PA contin- also “hit and run” attempts to run over Several parties, both Palestinian fac- ued to use its media outlets not to calm Israelis. On May 2, live-fire weaponry tions as well as external actors including the flames, but to pour high-octane fuel was re-introduced when a Palestinian Iran and Turkey, see a need and oppor- on them. This incitement includes songs terrorist, Muntazir Shalabi and a driver, tunity to incite escalation against Israel and chanting of slogans calling for mar- machine-gunned three Israelis waiting on many fronts, of which popular un- tyrdom and blood in children’s programs at a bus stop at Kfar Tapuah Junction rest was the first phase. The escalatory across all age groups, even toddlers. in the territories. One Israeli teenager, interests of the PA, Erdogan’s govern- Another series of attacks centered Yehuda Guetta, died and another is in ment in Turkey, and the revolutionary on the Damascus Gate leading into the serious condition. A third escaped with regime in Iran emanate from a sense of Old City. This campaign of violence, moderate injuries. Guitta was the first threat to their regimes from grave crises especially a series of beatings of Jews Israeli to die to live-fire in a terror attack internally that rattle their governments and riots in Jerusalem, Jaffa and at the in years. in dangerous ways. There is also a rising Damascus Gate on April 12, led Israel On May 5, Hamas resumed incen- expectation that any increase in violence to set up barriers on April 13 to control diary balloon attacks, which this time surrounding Israel will cause tension flow, keep potentially violent Jewish and included not only incendiary devices between Jerusalem and Washington un- Arab extremists separated, and main- attached to set fires in Israeli fields, but der the Biden administration, thus pro- tain pedestrian traffic control to seg- also small bombs which could have viding a strategic incentive to engage in ment and respond quickly to rioting caused considerable personal injury or just such an escalation. Such a reflexive attempts by either side. When a large death if they landed close to people in reaction has been a consistent theme number of Arab agitators quickly surged Israel. greeting every new administration in toward the area that evening, the barri- On Friday May 7, Israeli forces which there was hope that it might be ers proved inadequate, and several days stopped a heavily armed squad originat- less pro-Israel. of escalating nightly Arab riots against ing in Tulkarem that was attempting to Israeli police ensued, which eventually enter central Israel. Israeli forces identi- ❚ The Role of Israeli Arabs provoked a smaller Jewish demonstra- fied the terrorists, who were driven in a The internal Israeli Arab dimen- tion and unrest on April 20. minibus with stolen Israeli tags. When sion is crucial. In the recent elections, stopped, the three terrorists exited the an Arab party, the United Arab List ❚ Hamas Joins the Violence minibus and initiated firing near the (Ra’am) under Mansour Abbas, gained It was not long before the border with Salem military base checkpoint but almost as many seats in the Israeli par- Gaza heated up as well, and rockets were failed to injure any Israelis, while two of liament (Knesset) as the traditional lead- launched into Israel – weeks before any- the three terrorists were killed. ership represented by the Joint Arab List one noticed Sheikh Jarrah or any Israeli Finally, by nightfall on May 7, riots party led by Ayman Oudeh.

4 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 DAVID WURMSER: The Hamas War Against Israel

A man in the central Israeli city of Petah Tikva on May 13 checks the damage from a rocket launched from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. (Photo: Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images)

Mansour Abbas’s party gained this Traditional Israeli Arab leader- interests of diversion noted regarding traction because the Israeli Arab popu- ship, anchored to the Joint Arab List, Abu Mazen, but foreign actors who seek lation is facing a series of grave crises in instigated some of the recent violence to drive a wedge between Israel and the such areas as crime, education, and the in order to embarrass and undermine United States. economy. There is popular erosion of sup- the rising support for Ra’am. The Joint port for the traditional leadership, since it Arab List under Oudeh even provoked ❚ A Cheap Shot at Israel fails to deliver on issues that are impor- direct violent attacks on Mansour A final, disturbing, and novel di- tant to average people. And patience is Abbas and some in his party in Um mension of this current escalatory cycle stretched for continued sacrifice for the al-Fahm in May, designed to shame is that it is attended by a considerable elites’ obsessive, theoretical support for Ra’am’s leadership enough to force it footprint from U.S. territory. First is unattainable nationalist aspirations. into expressing support for the unrest, the clearly coordinated advance pro- Mansour Abbas’ party promised which would sabotage the party’s abil- paganda campaign to multiply the ten- to work within the framework of any ity to deliver on its promise and enter sions it would cause in U.S.-Israeli rela- Israeli government as a normal parlia- an Israeli government. tions. With blazing speed after the PA mentary party to secure the interests of Thus, the Arab rioting, the climate and Hamas had signaled there would its constituents. Rather than respond of tension created by the impressive per- be an escalatory cycle, pro-Palestinian competitively, the “establishment” the formance of Ra’am in the Israeli election, voices in the United States mobilized to Joint Arab List continued peddling followed by the violence instigated at the secure this narrative. The Middle East an anti-Zionist, pan-Arab agenda that behest of Abu Mazen and then Hamas Institute’s Khaled Elgindy, publishing in sacrificed its ability to enter the parlia- and Islamic Jihad, were not themselves Foreign Policy, is a revealing example of mentary power structure to leverage the whole story. They were a prelude the effort. He wrote: for constituents’ interests. It continued to attempts to lay the groundwork for a to opt for international applause for its more dangerous escalation that erupt- The unrest began on April 13 – rhetorical and entirely disenfranchising ed at a very high level in the following around the start of Ramadan – nationalist behavior. days and weeks, served not only the when Israeli authorities blocked

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 5 off the steps to the Old City’s iconic neighborhood since the Ottoman era. only hope the motivation is ignorance. Damascus Gate in Palestinian East The area was successfully secured by the Nonetheless, these statements greatly Jerusalem. The seemingly arbitrary Harel brigade of the Haganah in early inflamed the situation by encouraging move sparked several days of clashes 1948. British soldiers, not Arabs, attacked Arab rioters to believe their mayhem was between Palestinian protesters and and removed the area from Israeli con- gaining traction. The statements by the Israeli security forces.

There was nothing arbitrary about Israel’s moves at the Damascus gate on April 13, since for weeks before the re- Palestinian attacks on unsuspecting Jews became striction, accelerating numbers of un- provoked attacks, incited by Palestinian so prevalent that the escalation was dubbed the leaders, occurred on Jews in both “TikTok Intifada.” Jerusalem and in Jaffa. So why April 13, an arbitrary mile marker midstream in a series of escalating activities? Because it was the start of Ramadan. The implica- tion is insidious: the Israelis chose to out of the blue attack Muslims in Jerusalem trol, forcing the Jewish families to leave U.S. government, while less flagrantly ig- on that day of all days since it marked and turning it over to Arab forces. norant or prejudicial, have been weak and the beginning of the most holy month. When Israel reunified Jerusalem disturbingly neutral as well, which also Israel is subtly accused of launching a and the surrounding areas in 1967, the enflames the situation. grave religious attack on Islam itself – a Jewish families that had been expelled highly incendiary implication. two decades earlier asserted their land ❚ Conclusion Elgindy’s article must be character- deeds. A decision by Israel’s Supreme The Hamas attacks against Israel ized not as an attempt to illuminate, but Court in 1972 ruled the Jewish claims were not a mutually reinforcing “cycle much more as an attempt to serve as a were valid, and thus ownership was of violence” between two sides, but a calculated propaganda offensive coor- theirs. But it also ruled that for practical concerted offensive serving the strate- dinated with the determined effort of reasons, any Arab family that occupied gic aims of a number of Israel’s enemies. escalation started by Abu Mazen now would be protected from eviction if they This, then, is the key dynamic: tension, joined by Hamas and Islamic Jihad as agreed to pay rent to the Jewish owners. feuds, and violence among Palestinian well as Iran and Turkey. The use of the Recently, Arabs have come forward with factions, exacerbated by outside coun- word “arbitrary” to characterize Israeli counterclaims, all of which are proving tries with particular interests, and laying actions is a propaganda device to not to be forgeries. blame on Israel for the resulting warfare. only to obscure, but to erase the context In 1972, a number of families did The more the United States tries of Israel’s actions rather than effort to accept the Israeli Supreme Court formu- to accelerate efforts for peace without bring about understanding. la and paid rent, but a much larger num- recognizing the other factors, the more ber of families simply ignored the law it opens space for distance between ❚ Sheikh Jarrah as a and refused to pay. The current issue of Jerusalem and Washington. This weak- Flashpoint eviction is about some of those families ens Israel, which encourages those who The Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood has that have refused to pay rent since 1972. are its enemies to pile on and escalate, deep historical importance to both Jewish American politicians, including and those who sought to make their and Muslim communities, but there is Senator Elizabeth Warren, added to ten- peace with Israel already – such as the even more legal and strategic importance. sions with highly incendiary and destabi- Israel Ra’am party or the UAE – to hun- Sheikh Jarrah is in the strategic tri- lizing claims that the Jewish land owner- ker down and run for cover. angle between the green line, the French ship deeds constitute an “abhorrent” and Hill, and Givat Hamiftar connecting “illegal” act of occupation and settlement. DAVID WUR MSER, Ph.D. is a Israel to Mount Scopus. In 1948 the Such statements display such insensitiv- Senior Analyst and Director of the neighborhood’s three sections housed ity to or ignorance of the history of the Project on Global Antisemitism and about 125 Arab families who had moved neighborhood. Or worse, an anti-Semitic the U.S. Israel relationship at the there in the 1930s and 1940s and about outlook that holds that Jewish titles and Center for Security Policy. A version 80 Jewish families who lived in the land deeds simply do not count. One can of this article was published by CSP.

6 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 The Sand Curtain Has Fallen by DAVID M. WEINBERG

he Sand Curtain, like the Iron According to the Emirati Minister mini war that Israel had just fought with Curtain 30 years ago, has fallen. of State for Foreign Trade, Thani bin Hamas in Gaza and with Palestinian Israel and its “Abrahamic” part- Ahmed Al-Zayoudi, the two coun- radicals in Jerusalem. Tners are enjoying a lightning-fast tries have signed approximately 25 These are the beginnings of real peace bonanza. But some Westerners agreements in more than 15 sectors. people-to-people engagement; some- have difficulty rejoicing in the break- Academics from the Emirates and Israel thing that Israel has never enjoyed with through. The Left assiduously seeks to are participating in each other’s confer- the publics in Egypt or Jordan. It can be poke holes in the Abraham Accords, ences. Israel’s two main strategic think said that the “Sand Curtain” between and makes sourpuss faces whenever tanks, INSS and JISS, each have signed Israel and the Arab world has fallen, like advances in Gulf-Israel ties are men- research partnerships with leading the fall of the Iron Curtain between the tioned. The good news is that the ac- Emirati institutes. democratic and communist worlds 30 cords easily survived the recent Hamas- Tourist packages for Israelis and for years ago. Israel conflict. How a renewed JCPOA Jews everywhere to the Gulf are sprout- It is important to note that the accord will affect ties remains an open ing like mushrooms, and Gulf tourists to Emirati and Bahraini pursuit of peace and troubling question. Israel are coming soon too. Three Emirati with Israel is genuine. It is backed by a and three Israeli airlines are operating or discourse of religious moderation and ❚ Falling in Love planning daily flights to Dubai and Abu broadmindedness that is deep and ad- The speed with which Israeli rela- Dhabi (slowed only by lingering effects mirable; a discourse of reconciliation tions with the United Arab Emirates of the COVID-19 crisis), as is Bahrain’s brought to the fore by the Trump admin- and Bahrain have taken off (and with Gulf Air. Emirati Airlines times its istration-brokered Abraham Accords. Morocco and Sudan to a degree as well), flights from Ben-Gurion Airport to con- By explicitly referencing the and the genuine warmth experienced nect with Emirates flights from the Gulf Abrahamic common heritage of by every Israeli business delegation and tourist group to have visited these coun- tries, is astounding. It is a speed of light peace bonanza, a whirlwind of almost The Emiratis and Bahrainis want to redefine the self- Biblical proportions. Venture capitalists from Tel Aviv identity and global image of Arab Muslims in a way and Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Manama that blends enlightenment with tradition. are scouting out joint investment oppor- tunities in cybersecurity, fintech, aggro- tech, food security, educational technol- ogy, and healthcare. Bilateral business chambers have been established, in- to the Far East, giving Israelis new routes Moslems and Jews in the foundational cluding a Jewish-Muslim women’s busi- to China, Japan, Thailand and more. document of the normalization process ness council and a youth council. One Hundreds of Israelis in kippas and (and deliberately naming it the Abraham Emirati investment house executive en- Emiratis in long white robes and kan- Accords), the treaty implicitly acknowl- thused to The New York Times, “It’s like duras gathered in early June at a Global edges that Jews are a Biblical people falling in love!” Investment Forum in Dubai, co-spon- indigenous to the Land of Israel. This Trade between Israel and the UAE sored by The Jerusalem Post and The is a revolution; it is no less than a blunt already has exceeded $354 million. Khaleej Times. This, despite the fierce rejection of the ongoing Palestinian

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 7 President Donald J. Trump, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Ben- jamin Netanyahu and Minister of Foreign Affairs for the United Arab Emirates Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyani sign the Abraham Accords Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2020, on the South Lawn of the White House. (Photo: White House / Shealah Craighead) campaign to deny and criminalize the Iran invests heavily in religious hatred; meant to increase tolerance and respect. Jewish People’s historic rights in Israel. hatred of Israel, of America and the We in the UAE believe that terrorism It goes even deeper. The Emiratis West, and of other Muslims who do and extremism are not a threat to a sin- and Bahrainis want to redefine the not hew to the radical Shiite line. The gle nation or to a single region; they are self-identity and global image of Arab Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps a threat to the whole world.” Muslims in a way that blends enlight- (IRGC) relies on religious hatred to In short, the Abraham Accords enment with tradition. Affiliating with mobilize young men to its ranks. So do are meant “to take religious hatred out Israel fits perfectly into this agenda, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood, of the equation,” and move Israel-Arab aside from the security and economic ISIS, and Al-Qaeda. ties to the level of normal state-to-state benefits that will spin off from partner- The Emiratis see themselves and relations, hopefully setting an example ship with Israel. other Sunni Arabs as “victims of de- for other Arab countries in the region. Indeed, these Gulf Arabs see them- cades of media brainwashing” in sup- “Hatred is not from God. It does not selves as people and nations that suc- port of “narrow agendas” (meaning, flow from logic. And hatred is not the fu- cessfully blend ancient tradition, culture radical Islamic agendas) and “immature ture,” a very senior Emirati who is close and ethnic identity with modern prog- thinking” (meaning, Palestinian think- to UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin ress and ambition. That is exactly how ing). These deleterious discourses always Zayed told me. they view Israel as well. need an “enemy” to hate. The Emiratis are talking about of- The core problem in the Middle Dr. Ali Al Nuami, chairman of the fering their school curriculums on re- East, Emiratis and Bahrainis have told Defense Affairs, Interior and Foreign ligious and ethnic tolerance, and the me, is that religious hatred has become Affairs Committee of the Federal value of scientific and critical human- the main political currency, a volatile National Council for the Emirate of Abu istic thinking, to Arab schools across and hypocritically exploited currency. Dhabi, says, “The Abraham Accords are the Middle East. They may launch an

8 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 DAVID The Sand Curtain Has Fallen M. WEINBERG: Emirati distance-learning program with which Palestinian rights are paramount. should make good on its explicit prom- high school and college courses available Fifth, it seriously upsets progres- ise of “full coordination” with Israel and to Arab and Muslim students – from sives that the Abraham Accords side- the Saudis regarding the JCPOA talks. Morocco to Iran. Over time, this educa- line the Palestinians and their claims. In the Palestinian arena, the Biden tional export product could have a real It is no longer possible to argue that administration should be working to moderating impact. the Palestinian struggle is the “crux” of build on Abraham Accord dynamics Middle East conflict. Sunni states part- too. ❚ Sourpuss Reactions nering with Israel even question wheth- Instead of letting the Palestinian Unfortunately, some around the er there is an “urgent need” or sufficient Authority get away with violence (in- world remain begrudging in their em- justification for the Palestinians to gain cluding issuing a fatwa banning Emirati brace of these blessed developments. a state of their own. Muslims from visiting or praying on For the extreme left, it is hard to For the five reasons listed above, the Temple Mount!), and instead of swallow the fact that Israel is demonstra- left-of-center leaders have been as- Washington “working to significantly bly a force for good, knowledge, pros- siduously poking holes in the Abraham support urgent humanitarian recon- perity, and stability in the Middle East. Accords and making sourpuss faces struction assistance in Gaza” (something After all, that is the reason the UAE and whenever the speed of light advances in that almost assuredly will strengthen Bahrain are collaborating with Israel. Gulf-Israel ties are mentioned. Hamas) – the Biden administration Second, the left has been reluctant Some American officials prefer to should be pressing the PA to welcome to credit Donald Trump or Binyamin signal disdain for the Abraham Accords, the role that the UAE and Bahrain can Netanyahu for the Accords (or anything at least indirectly. One way of doing this play in an expanded peace process. else), even when the result obviously is so beneficial. Third, the left and center-left,- in cluding the Biden administration, wishes to reinstate the JCPOA nuclear Emiratis and Bahrainis have told me, religious hatred deal with Iran; a deal to which Israel has become the main political currency, a volatile and and its Gulf partners were, and remain, adamantly opposed. In fact, creation of hypocritically exploited currency. Iran invests heavily in a common front against the nuclear and religious hatred... hegemonic designs of Iran is the main motive underlying Israel-Gulf relations. The Abraham Accords get in the way of the American rush to reconcile with Iran. Expansion of the “Abrahamic is giving a cold shoulder to U.S. and Gulf colleagues can help PA pres- circle of peace” to other countries (say, Israeli allies in the region, like Egypt ident-for-life Mahmoud Abbas dial- Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Kuwait, and and Saudi Arabia, because of their hu- down his expectations and understand Oman) certainly would anger the man rights abuses. The Biden admin- that there will be no reverting to stale Iranians. As a result, it seems that the istration even dangerously has spoken and unworkable formulas based on Biden administration is not prioritizing of “reassessing” U.S. ties to Riyadh. It maximalist Palestinian demands and enlargement of the Accords. In fact, the pulled U.S. support for the Saudi war on minimalist regard for Israeli security Biden administration will not even use the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen (a needs and national-historic claims. This the term “Abraham Accords,” but rather, terrible strategic mistake). For a while, it refers to discredited formulas involv- “normalization agreements.” held-up the F-35 sale to the Emirates. ing the uprooting of settlements, Israeli Fourth, some are uncomfortable withdrawals from most of Judea and with the renewed “religious” discourse ❚ Strategic Realities Samaria, and division of Jerusalem. about Biblical patrimony and rights, Instead of acting to taint the These are dead proposals – no mat- as described above. To leftist ears, this Abraham Accords ecosystem, the left ter how fiercely Abbas attacks Israel in smacks of Evangelical Christian and ought to be strengthening the Accords, international forums or how impolitely right-wing Orthodox Jewish stand- because they strengthen America and President Biden presses Israel. They are points. The only type of “rights” they are its true regional allies, while weakening dead proposals under whatever new - comfortable with are the liberal, politi- Russian, Turkish, and Iranian interests. non-Netanyahu - government is formed cally-correct, intersectional kind – in At the very least, the administration in Jerusalem, too.

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 9 ❚ Stress Test dials back its commitment to countering a key role in cultivating relations be- In this context it is worth not- Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions, it tween Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, ing that the Abraham Accords passed seems logical that Gulf countries will as well as unofficial ties with Saudi their first stress test during the recent seek to further strengthen their security Arabia. The leaders of those countries Israeli-Palestinian dust-up in Gaza and and diplomatic ties with Israel. Israel knew Netanyahu well enough to talk to Jerusalem. While Gulf and Moroccan will remain actively engaged in a long- him about key defense and intelligence leaders issued harsh condemnations of term shadow war, and in an increas- issues. They knew that his commitment Israel for its tough police response to the Arab riots on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, no Abraham Accords coun- The real shadow hanging over the future of try did more than protest verbally. Abraham Accord-type peace treaties in the region None withdrew their ambassadors from Israel, and none slowed the pace of comes from the incipient reconciliation between developing economic ties. Compare this Washington and Tehran, in the form of a renewed with the Second Intifada in 2000, when Tunisia, Morocco, Oman, and Qatar nuclear deal. dissolved their less-than-full diplomatic ties with Israel. Most notable of all, neither the UAE, ingly public war against Iran’s designs. to aggressively countering Iran was ab- Bahrain, Sudan, or Morocco truly criti- And Israel quietly but determinedly will solute. Will the same level of trust per- cized Israel for striking hard at Hamas help protect its Gulf allies from Iranian tain to an Israeli government led by a in Gaza. In fact, they probably cheered machinations too. coalition of Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid this, quietly. Their mild press releases On the other hand, if the U.S. takes and Benny Gantz? about the fighting resembled standard itself out of the frontline against Iran, it is Lapid has made statements support- State Department calls for de-escalation perhaps possible that Gulf countries will ing the JCPOA; Gantz has demurred from and “restraint.” Emirati foreign minister make the reluctant decision to ally with some of Netanyahu’s recent tough com- Abdullah bin Zayed even doubled down Iran; or at the very least, to hedge their bets ments about countering Iran should the U.S. decide to back away; and it is unclear whether Bennett will make Abraham Accord partnerships a priority (of course, Sunni states partnering with Israel even question he should), and whether he can quickly whether there is an “urgent need” or sufficient gain the trust of Gulf leaders. The Israel envoy to the UAE, justification for the Palestinians to gain a state of Ambassador Eitan Naeh, says that it their own. does not matter who is prime minister, foreign minister or defense minister of Israel: “UAE-Israel ties will continue to grow because both countries have es- on the Abraham Accords, citing the by minimizing open ties to Israel and their sential interests in doing so.” “Essential conflagration as a “somber reminder of full alignment with the United States. interests” is certainly true. But the level the urgent need for peaceful dialogue.” To a certain extent, this process of cultivation, and whether there will be In sum, none of these Arab coun- may already be underway. For the opportunities to bring more countries tries added to the diplomatic pressure first time in many years, the Saudis into the Abraham Accords given the on Israel in any substantive way. and Emiratis recently held direct and new governments in Washington and The real shadow hanging over public talks with Iranian leaders. This Jerusalem – remains to be seen. the future of Abraham Accord-type could be a signal that Gulf leaders re- peace treaties in the region comes from alize Washington will no longer lead DAVID M. WEINBERG is vice presi- the incipient reconciliation between a counter-Iran coalition and that ally- dent of the Jerusalem Institute for Washington and Tehran in the form of ing openly with Israel may no longer be Strategy and Security, and a diplomatic a renewed nuclear deal. overwhelmingly beneficial. and defense columnist for The Jerusalem On the one hand, if Washington Then there is the question of Israeli Post and Israel Hayom newspapers. His goes soft on Iran’s nuclear program and leadership. Netanyahu personally played personal site is davidmweinberg.com.

10 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 Why There is No Palestinian State by HUSSAIN ABDUL-HUSSAIN

land without a people for a own. Then Palestinians started talking defeat of the leader of Arab nationalism, people without a land” is a about a Palestinian nation-state whose Egypt’s Gamal Abdul-Nasser. phrase that gets under the capital is Jerusalem. Nasser tried to make up for his de- “A skin of most Palestinians, Yet despite the birth of this feat by propping up Palestinian nation- who think that the authors of the phrase Palestinian nation overnight, the mean- alism and militias to fight a “war of attri- looked at Ottoman Palestine, did not see ing of independent Palestine remained tion” against Israel. This war of attrition, them, and instead saw an empty land. elusive, especially to Islamists and Arab now fought by pro-Iran regime militias Yet perhaps this phrase would have made nationalists, both of which saw the bor- like Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, sense if we zoomed in on the meaning of ders drawn by British and French colo- continues until today. the word “people.” nials as fake and designed to divide-and- Even as Palestinians started pro- Whoever coined the phrase that conquer Muslims or Arabs. moting their local identity, their conflict became a Zionist slogan did not use the But even after Arab nationalists against the Zionists maintained its pre- word people to describe a bunch of hu- started referring to Palestine as a country Palestinian nationalism format, render- mans dwelling on a certain land. People, with a flag and national emblems, they ing the conflict with Israel as one over in this phrase, is used to mean a nation, still criticized Lebanon’s Christians for land and sovereignty rather than civil a state or a nation-state. insisting on an independent Lebanon, rights, as can be seen in the behavior of Before 1948, the Arabs who lived saying that Arab countries were fake, Arab Israelis, who claim to be suffering in Palestine had never organized them- and were produced by the colonials to Israeli discrimination, which they coun- selves in a state, but had, for centu- divide the Arab and Muslim nation. ter — not by demanding assimilation — ries, lived as subjects of empires that Arab nationalists also disapproved of but through Palestinian nationalism. ruled them from faraway capitals, such the creation of Jordan and Syria. While insisting on the creation of as Damascus, Cairo, Baghdad, and Izz-eldeen al-Qassam, the Muslim independent Palestine, a majority of Istanbul. In the history of the Arabs, Imam who died near Haifa while fight- Palestinians seem to think that a state is Jerusalem never served as the seat of any ing the British in 1935, and whose made of land and people, not of people dynasty and never practiced sovereignty. At best, the city served as a provincial capital. In this sense, when the Zionists ... the meaning of independent Palestine remained looked at Ottoman Palestine, they did not see a nation-state. They saw Arab illusive, especially to Islamists and Arab nationalists, provinces of successive empires, Arab both of which saw the borders drawn by British and or Turkish. This is why the land looked one without a people, that is without a French colonials as fake... nation state.

❚ The Mandate and Nationalism After the British stitched a few name Hamas borrowed for its mili- organizing themselves into a success- Ottoman provinces together to produce tary wing and locally produced rock- ful state. But land alone does not make Mandatory Palestine in 1920, and with ets, was Syrian. His coffin was draped states. Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq are the Zionists putting forward their vision in the flags of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and all sovereign over the land, and yet all of a country in Palestine with its capital Yemen, but not Palestine, which shows three of them are failed states. This is in Jerusalem, Palestinians borrowed ele- that Palestinian nationalism was a late- why Israel fears that land concessions to ments from both, and made them their comer that only surfaced after the 1967 Palestinians will result in a failed state,

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 11 and not country in the world wants a make the Jews a minority in the country peace, Arafat was either too weak or too failed state — that would turn into a hot- that they have worked hard to create and unwilling to do so, forcing Israel to do the bed of terrorism, crime, and illicit trade maintain. This “right of return” is there- policing for him, as Palestinians sat back — on its borders. fore a deal breaker for the Israelis and, so and claimed victimhood, often by depict- far, for Palestinians as well. ing Israeli policing as unwillingness to ❚ Studying Zionism pursue peace. Palestinians spent a century try- ❚ Palestinian Governance The way out of stalemate is tied to ing to learn how the Zionists managed Even if the two sides manage to Palestinians figuring out how to build to overpower them. Think tanks were separate their respective populations, a state that can represent them, deliver set up to teach Palestinian researchers Palestinians have never demonstrated on its security promises, and offer the Hebrew and to monitor Israeli press and any ability to govern themselves. While Palestinians a good government able literature. The Palestinians drew many self-determination is a right enshrined to grow the economy, decrease poverty lessons, but the only one they never seem in the UN’s founding literature, it is not and therefore offer them hope that keeps to have learned was that Zionists created a guarantee that sovereign nations can them away from joining suicidal groups a state long before they had any land. create and manage successful states. If like Hamas. In his manuscript on Zionism, writ- other Arab states — including Lebanon, There was one Israeli leader who, ten in the 1890s and only published this Syria, and Iraq — are any indicator, it is despite his reputation of being a right- year, Palestinian Rawhi al-Khalidi was highly likely that the Palestinian state wing bully, understood the require- impressed, not only by the good organi- will be a failed state too. ments of peace with Palestinians and zation of the Zionist movement and its Such a state next to Israel means that pursued them. regular elections, but also by the dedica- the Jewish state will have to keep tabs on tion of its rank and file. Al-Khalidi wrote its neighbor, and maybe police it. After ❚ Ariel Sharon that poor Jewish peasants in Russia or all, no state would want to sit adjacent to Ariel Sharon was Israeli the Arabs Eastern Europe saved on buying food a failed state that can become a hotbed hated most. As a general, he was blamed in order to pay their membership fees for terrorism, crime, and illicit trade. for reversing the Arab tide in the 1973 to the Zionist organization and elect its It is unfortunate that Palestinians war and leading Israel’s counterattack officials. Khalidi described the move- have yet to recognize these two Israeli across the Suez Canal. As Minister of ment as a government without a land. prerequisites for a Palestinian state: That Defense, he led the Lebanon War that This would have perfectly described a Israel’s population remains predomi- ejected Arafat and his militias from “government (people) without a land for nantly Jewish and that a Palestinian state Beirut. As opposition leader, Sharon a land without a government (people).” has a good enough government that can visited the Al-Aqsa compound in

❚ The “Right of Return” Successive rounds of conflict have re- sulted in the division of the land along the Sharon hoped that an elected Israeli government line of the 1948 truce, known as the Green Line. Conflict has forced some pragma- and an elected Palestinian government could make tism but neither side is happy about di- comprehensive and lasting peace. viding the land into two states. Yasser Arafat and other Arab states agreed to “land-for-peace” in principle, but with the caveat that Arabs who were displaced (or willingly left) the 1948 territories, recog- guarantee the security and safety of its Jerusalem, giving the brewing Second nized as the State of Israel, have the right neighbors, including Israel. Intifada its spark. To the Arabs, Sharon to return to Israel. Palestinians cite a UN It is also unfortunate that was a criminal and a bully. He certainly General Assembly (UNGA) resolution to Palestinians blame the failure of peace on enjoyed strong credentials with Israel’s substantiate their claim, even though un- Israel’s expansion of settlements in dis- Right wing and settler movement. like the Security Council, UNGA’s resolu- puted land. The Palestinians never seem But when it came to peace with the tions have no legal power. to have noticed that it was Hamas’s sui- Arabs, the hawkish Sharon had a vision To Israel, the return of a few million cide bombings the obstructed the peace and a plan, one that was never completed Palestinians to their country would tip process, until it killed it. Instead of rein- because of a sudden brain hemorrhage the demographic scale drastically and ing in Hamas and proceeding toward that resulted in his incapacitation in

12 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 HUSSAIN ABDUL-HUSSAIN: Why There is No Palestinian State and handed the strip over to Abbas, who had been elected president eight months prior, following the death of Arafat. Sharon was probably on his way to do the same in the West Bank when he was suddenly hospitalized. Sharon was succeeded by Ehud Olmert, a much less charismatic charac- ter, who tried to carry on with Sharon’s plan by offering Abbas a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, in addition to the Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem, and a promise to iron the remaining wrinkles. Abbas turned down Olmert’s peace proposal, and again turned down a similar offer by Benjamin Netanyahu, which was made under the auspices of the Palestine-friendly Lines of Israeli soldiers wait to remove settlers from the Tel Katifa Jewish settlement as part of the Israeli disengagement from Gaza. (Photo: Eddie Gerald) American president Barack Obama. The biggest obstacle to Abbas’s abil- 2006. To the late Israeli prime minister, notorious terrorist groups on the planet. ity to say yes to any Israeli offers for a peace was impossible between a democ- In 2006, Hezbollah started a war Palestinian state is that he cannot fore- racy, like Israel, and militias, like Arafat’s with Israel that lasted for 33 days and re- go the “right of return” of Palestinians PLO or Lebanon’s armed factions. sulted in death and destruction in Israel, to Israel (not to the to-be-created When Sharon invaded Lebanon in but exponentially much more death Palestine). He tested the waters by giving 1982, his plan was to sponsor the elec- and destruction in Lebanon. Today, an interview in which he said that any tion of a president and empower the Hezbollah still dominates Lebanon. peace deal with Israel would not mean weak state over the armed militias that Like Hamas, Hezbollah rejects peace his return to his birthplace in Safed, in had been engaged in civil war since wholesale and wants Israel destroyed. northern Israel. Palestinians, especially 1975. Sharon ejected Arafat and the It imposes its maximalist view on the hardliners like Hamas, immediately Palestinian militias and supervised the Lebanese, forcing them to say that Israel forced Abbas to retract his statement. election of Bashir Gemayel as president is an illegitimate state, and to refer to the of Lebanon. Sharon reasoned that only country instead as “Occupied Palestine.” ❚ Conclusion then could Israel sign a lasting peace Peace between Israel and the treaty with Lebanon. ❚ Gaza Disengagement Palestinians was not always standing Gemayel was elected, but before he Sharon repeated the same experi- at a dead end like it does today. Some could take office, the Syrian regime of ment with the Palestinians in the West Israelis, like Sharon, understood that Hafez Assad assassinated him. Sharon Bank and Gaza. Sharon had given up on Palestinians have to have a representa- was also weakened at home amid an un- Arafat, seeing him as a weak and unreli- tive government that can make peace popular war in Lebanon and atrocities able peace partner. With American assis- with Israel, manage Palestinians well, that accompanied the Israeli invasion, tance, the Israeli prime minister forced and maintain neighborly relations with especially at the Sabra and Shatila camps the Palestinian Authority (PA) to elect a Israel. But Sharon’s plan died with him. in Beirut. With Sharon and Bashir prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, who Since then, the Palestinians have yet to Gemayel out of the picture, Bashir’s was supposed to eclipse the wily Arafat. understand what it takes for them to get brother Amin was elected president and Sharon hoped that an elected Israeli gov- their state, and that does not include de- tried to carry on with the plan. On May ernment and an elected Palestinian gov- stroying Israel or behaving as the victim. 17, 1983, Lebanon and Israel signed a ernment could make comprehensive and peace treaty, which was later killed by lasting peace. HUSSAIN ABDUL-HUSSAIN Assad. Under international pressure, Sharon then put his money where is a DC-based policy analyst. He Israel eventually ended its occupation his mouth was. In September 2005, amid tweets @hahussain and you can sub- of Lebanon, which became the hotbed much anger from settlers, Sharon dis- scribe to his page at https://hus- of pro-Iran Hezbollah, one of the most mantled the Israeli settlements in Gaza, sainabdulhussain.substack.com

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 13 Arab Demography Westernizes As Jewish Demography Thrives by YORAM ETTINGER

n defiance of both conventional wis- unprecedented Israeli development of expectancy surged, almost to the Israeli dom and Israel’s critics, the highest- health, medical, transportation, edu- level. Emigration was substantially ever Arab population growth rate in cation and employment infrastructure curtailed due to new opportunities for IJudea and Samaria (the West Bank) in Judea and Samaria, following stag- higher education and employment. occurred during the period of Israel’s nation during the Jordanian occupa- Hence, while net-emigration dur- full control of the area (1967-1992). tion of the area (1948-67). In addition, ing the 17 years of Jordan’s control was Between 1967 and 1992, the Arab Israel offered employment opportu- 28,000 annually, it subsided to 7,000 population of Judea and Samaria ex- nities inside its pre-1967 core, to the annually during the 25 years of Israel’s panded by 79%, compared to a mere Arabs of Judea and Samaria, who pre- full-control. 0.9% growth during the 1950-1967 ferred working in Israel to the distant The exceptionally high Arab pop- Jordanian rule. In raw numbers, the Arab Gulf states, West Africa or Latin ulation growth rate during Israel’s population increased from 586,000 to America. full control of Judea and Samaria in- 1,050,000 people. As a result of enhanced medical cluded 170% growth of the 25-34 age The unprecedented Arab popula- infrastructure, Arab infant mortal- group, which is the bulk of likely emi- tion growth rate was the outcome of the ity was drastically reduced, so that life grants. That they stayed attests to the

14 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 YORAM ETTINGER: Arab Demography Westernizes, As Jewish Demography Thrives unprecedented development of employ- last for one generation, before falling impacted by the Israeli state of mind, ment opportunities for Arabs by Israel. due to other effects of modernization/ which is heavy on optimism, faith, pa- Compared to an Arab population Westernization, as evidenced in Judea triotism, attachment to roots, collec- growth rate of merely 0.9% during and Samaria: tive responsibility, and the centrality Jordan’s rule - when births were almost • Massive urbanization (from 75% ru- of children. The modern Israeli psyche offset by net emigration – there was a ral in 1967 to 77% urban in 2021) retains elements of a frontier mental- 2.2% average annual population growth • Reduced emigration. ity, after centuries of costly Jewish rate during Israel’s rule. Moreover, 1990 • Most girls complete high school and history and contemporary existential and 1991 featured 4.5% and 5.1% popu- increasingly pursue higher education threats in the stormy, violently intol- lation growth rates. • Reduced teen pregnancy and in- erant, unpredictable and anti-”infidel” Arguably, the surge in Arab popu- creased use of contraceptives (within Middle East. lation growth was misperceived by the marriage) (70%) Unlike the generally pessimis- demographic establishment, which • Greater female participation in the tic and less-patriotic European state projected a continued growth at the job market of mind, which has produced an ex- same rate, ignoring the “pre-fall-surge” • Rising marital age of women from tremely low fertility rate of 1.5 babies syndrome. That phrase character- 15 years old to 22 and older per woman (2.1 is required to sus- izes population growth rates of Third • Shorter reproductive period (from tain an existing level of population), World societies, when they more close- 16–55 year old to 23-45 years old) Israelis - left and right, doves and ly resemble Western world societies in • Higher divorce rate and youth hawks, secular and religious, wealthy certain areas. emigration and poor - all embrace the Zionist vi- When a Third World population Bottom Line: 9 births per Arab sion to buttress the Jewish State. They is provided with modernized infra- woman in the 1960s; 3.02 births in 2021. consider children a means to enrich structure, it triggers a surge in the fer- their own lives and secure the civilian tility rate some of which attributable ❚ Why is Israel’s Jewish and military future of the Jewish State. to lowered infant mortality). But the Fertility Rate Thriving? For these reasons, Israel, with a surge in population growth tends to Jewish demography has been birthrate of 3.09 per woman, leads the

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 15 34 OECD countries in fertility and pop- compared to a 16% rise of the annual “For one who adds a soul to Israel is as ulation growth rates. Israel also leads in Israeli Arab births from 36,500 in 1995 though he built a whole world….” the percentage of youth under the age to 42,435 in 2020. of 15 - at 28% of the population; and the Israel’s demographic momentum ❚ Conclusion percentage of immigrants, at 23% of the has evolved despite a moderate de- • Israel’s unique secular and religious population. Israel’s Jewish fertility rate crease in the ultra-Orthodox fertility fertility rate reflects the sturdy state of is the highest among the top 100 devel- rate, which is a result of the expansion mind of the Jewish State in the stormy oped countries in the world. of ultra-Orthodox participation in the Middle East, a most challenging region Moreover, Israel’s Jewish fertility job market and higher education – es- of the world. rate is unique in the world in the posi- pecially for Orthodox women. • Israel’s robust demography refutes tive correlation between level of educa- While the ultra-Orthodox fertility the assertion that its Jewish majority is tion and income on the one hand, and rate has decreased from 7.5 births per threatened by a supposed Arab demo- the number of babies per woman on woman in 2000 to 6.5 births in 2020, graphic time bomb. In fact, well-docu- the other hand. Jewish women have it is still – by far – the highest fertil- mented demographic data, since 1900, sustained their relatively high fertil- ity rate in Israel. The ultra-Orthodox suggest that policy-makers and public ity rate, despite their increasing age at remain committed to the Torah-driven opinion molders, who enunciate such marriage. worldview, which highlights children an assertion are either dramatically It is currently common for a sec- as a source of divine joy and critical mistaken, or outrageously misleading. ular, urban, highly-educated, high- obligation. • Finally, the uniquely optimistic income and over-30-year-old working The ultra-Orthodox state of mind demography of the Jewish State re- Israeli Jewish woman to have three or underscores procreation, as stated in flects the unique qualities of the Jewish four children. This is unheard of else- Genesis 1:28: “God blessed them and people, which have enabled them to where in the West. said to them, ‘be fruitful and increase overcome calamities, such as physi- Since 1995, the secular sector has in number….’” It underscores God’s cal destruction, exiles, pogroms, the played the key role in Israel’s Jewish blessing of Abraham that his descen- Holocaust and systemic anti-Semitism. demographic momentum: there has dants will be as numerous as the stars been a 68% rise in annual Jewish births in the heavens (Genesis 15:5), and the YORAM ETTINGER is from 80,400 in 1995 to 134,866 in 2020; firm belief in Maimonides’ assertion: a retired Israeli diplomat.

16 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 The Divided Self of John le Carré by BENJAMIN WEINTHAL

he death of perhaps history’s leader Jeremy Corbyn.The left-wing and Liz Gold, a librarian who is a mem- greatest espionage writer John Guardian paper published the missive, ber of the Communist Party of Great le Carré in December 2020 which warned about “the prospect of a Britain, as idealistic devotees to the cause Tsparked a series of lively debates prime minister steeped in association of a building a new society. Of course, the about the British novelist’s contradic- with antisemitism.”The letter contin- German Democratic Republic was packed tory views toward Zionism, Jews and ued, “Mr. Corbyn has a long record of with “Red painted fascists,” a term coined Israel. The Times of London columnist embracing antisemites as comrades” by a German Social Democrat, and le Melanie Phillips asked in her Jewish and, “The path to a more tolerant soci- Carré captures the antisemitism target- News Syndicate column after his death: ety must encompass Britain’s Jews with ing Fiedler in his novel. While many “He remains a product of his time unwavering solidarity.” members and politicians from today’s and an enigma. Was he on the side of The British Left reacted in shock, German Left party, the current succes - the Jewish people – or their enemies?” seemingly ambushed by le Carré’s potent sor to the Party of Democratic Socialism, Phillips admits that she could not crack opposition to Corbynism, for le Carré, as the Socialist Unity Party (which was the le Carré enigma. Le Carré, whose like Corbyn, embodied an anti-Amer- known in English as the East German birth name was David Cornwell, left an icanism largely animated by a loathing Communist Party) styled itself from enormous literary output, a great deal of neo-conservative foreign policies and 1989 to 2007, romanticize the communist of which is peppered with Jewish and American dominance of the world stage. state, it was without question a deeply an- Israeli characters. Before delving into Le Carré’s worldview remains, however, a tisemitic, totalitarian regime.“We are wit- his first successful spy tale, which fea- mixed bag of philo-semitism, pro-Israel nessing the lousy end to a filthy, lousy op- tures an East German Jew and British zeal and dangerous anti-Americanism, eration to save Mundt’s skin. To save him Jew, it is worth noting le Carré’s fare- marred, one could argue, by an atypi- from a clever little Jew in his own depart- well public intellectual act, in which cal spilling over into the realm of con- ment who had begun to suspect the truth. he addressed left-wing antisemitism in temporary antisemitism in a Guardian They made us kill him, d’you see, kill the the United Kingdom. Shortly before the interview about his 2003 book Absolute Jew. Now you know the truth, God help 2019 British general election, le Carré Friends. The 1963 novel that catapulted le us both,” the British spy Alec Leamas says to Gold about Fiedler in the novel. Hans- Dieter Mundt is a double agent who is employed by the East German spy service the Stasi, but secretly works for British in- Le Carré’s worldview remains, however, a mixed bag telligence. A former Nazi. Was there ever of philo-semitism, pro-Israel zeal and dangerous such a thing as a former Nazi during that period? Mundt’s antisemitism is the sub- anti-Americanism... ject of Fiedler’s dialogues with Leamas. In the novel, Fiedler was able to flee Nazi Germany and lived in exile in Canada be- fore he returned to East Germany. Reports later emerged that le Carré joined a group of distinguished writ- Carré into international literary stardom, based the character on Markus Wolf, ers, artists and campaigners against The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, the longtime head of the Stasi’s foreign racism and antisemitism in a public let- depicts two Jewish characters: the East intelligence service, whose father was a ter urging a vote against Labour party German communist officer Josef Fiedler, prominent German Jewish author. Wolf

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 17 lived in exile in the Soviet Union during to aid in the capture of a Palestinian to invoke a phrase first popularized by WWII. master bomb-maker terrorist, Khalil. In the 19th century antisemitic German Wolf, who was known during the the novel, Le Carré demonstrates a pro- historian Heinrich von Treitschke, Cold War as “the Man Without a Face” found understanding of post-Holocaust seamlessly bleeds into “Israel is our mis- due to his success in avoiding being pho- Jew-hatred in continental Europe. Take fortune.” Plainly put, le Carré helped to tographed, denied the connection in a the example of Khalil, who says, “We flush out a new form of Jew-hatred in the conversation with this writer. Le Carré have many friends in Germany. But not early 1980s. also flatly rejected any link between because they love Palestinians. Only be- While le Carré does not explic- Fiedler and Wolf.The Israeli journalist cause they hate Jews.” itly label this antisemitism as “guilt- and Middle East analyst Dr. Jonathan Khalil neatly encapsulates many defensiveness antisemitism,” to use the Spyer wrote as early as 2015 about le Germans’ ubiquitous instrumentaliza- phrase of the German-Jewish philoso- Carré’s posture toward Israel. “Outside tion of Israel as the be-all and end-all phers Theodor W. Adorno and Max of ‘The Little Drummer Girl’ le Carre for evil. The passage reminds one of Horkheimer, Khalil’s words conjure tends to avoid direct reference to Israel the dialogue in the late Rainer Werner up the pathological guilt response to in his fiction,” notes Spyer. Fassbinder 1975 play The Garbage, the the Shoah that is widespread in today’s A decent size library could be filled City and Death, in which the antise- German society. with dissertations and books about le mitic character Hans von Gluck de- Based on how le Carré informs Carré’s treatment of Jews, Israel and clares: “And it’s the Jew’s fault, because Khalil’s character, the biting, sarcastic Zionism in The Little Drummer (1983), as he makes us feel guilty because he exists. comment attributed to the Israeli psy- well as his other novels that are sprinkled If he’d stayed where he came from, or if choanalyst Zvi Rex in the 1980s, that with complex Jewish characters. they’d gassed him, I would sleep better.” “The Germans will never forgive the Perhaps his best-known work to- The Nazi-era in- day, The Little Drummer Girl covers the citement of “The Jews Mossad’s recruitment of a British actress are our misfortune,”

18 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 BENJAMIN WEINTHAL : The Divided Self of John le Carré Jews for Auschwitz,” would conform to happen if we allow present trends to con- Maoist ferocity, a nation crackling with le Carré’s outlook. tinue to the point of absurdity where cor- debate, rediscovering its past while it Le Carré, who was fluent in German porate media are absolutely at the beck fought for its future.” and infatuated with the language, had and call in the United States of a neo- Davis quoted le Carré: “‘No na- a German-Jewish refugee nanny as a conservative group which is command- tion on earth,’ he says passionately, ‘was young boy. The novelist would portray ing the political high ground, calling the more deserving of peace – or more con- a sympathetic character, the German- shots and appointing the State of Israel demned to fight for it.’” Jewish refugee nanny Annie Lippsie, in as the purpose of all Middle Eastern and A question that frustrates many his 1986 book A Perfect Spy. practically all global policy.” aficionados of le Carré’s public intel- To return to his monumental work Sadly, le Carré invokes a series of lectual life and his oeuvre: Which side about Israel, The Little Drummer Girl, antisemitic tropes in his aforesaid com- was he on with respect to Israel and the which was turned into a 1984 film star- ment, lashing out at the United States Palestinians? ring Diane Keaton and a 2018 British and Israel. From the suggestion that Le Carré’s answer in 1998: “Where television series, posits a deeply mis- the Jewish state controls U.S. foreign I began – only more so. I mean, I stood guided and nonsensical ethical equiva- policy to neo-conservative control over – and stand – wholeheartedly behind the nation-state of Israel as the homeland and guardian of Jews everywhere. And whole- heartedly behind the peace process as the guarantor not only of Israel’s survival, A question that frustrates many aficionados of le Carré’s but of the Palestinian survival also.” public intellectual life and his oeuvre: Which side was He adds, “I’m afraid the truth is that, in fiction as in politics, the extreme he on with respect to Israel and the Palestinians? center is a pretty dangerous place to be. It’s where you draw the fire from the fa- natics on both sides.” One can grapple with the layers of le Carré’s divided self toward Jews and lence between a Palestinian movement American power politics and media, le Israel ad infinitum. His rejection a year animated by terrorism and the demo- Carré entered the realm of contemporary before his death of Jeremy Corbyn, the cratic State of Israel. antisemitism. As the late columnist and personification of a movement that seeks Perhaps with the hindsight experi- pundit Charles Krauthammer noted, the the abolition of Israel, suggests le Carré ence of jihadi terrorism in Britain since term “neo-conservative” largely became broke with his unsavory post-9/11 com- 9/11, and the Sunni and Shi’ite terrorism synonymous with American Jews during ments about the Jewish state. attacks that swept the continent since the period after 911 (falsely, it should be There is undoubtedly a pressing al-Qaeda’s attacks in the United States noted) and devolved into an epithet used need for more literary interrogation (and there might be fewer attempts by intel- by antisemites of all stripes to disguise scholarly studies) of le Carré’s books that lectuals to equate democracies with ter- their Jew-hatred. Hence Krauthammer feature Jewish characters and Israel. Le rorist movements. eschewed the term in his discourse. Carré can be coy, blunt and shield his As Jonathan Spyer, whose profound Contrast the abovementioned state- characters behind appearances. The eth- knowledge of le Carré is reflected in his ments with le Carré’s deeply pro-Israel ical struggles of many of his Jewish and article “John Le Carre and the Last of and pro-Jewish statements in his 1998 Israeli characters undoubtedly resonate Empire,” notes, “Le Carre’s depictions interview with Douglas Davis for the with his Jewish and Israeli readers. of Americans seem to me also to be in Jewish World Review. During his visit to Absent unpublished archival mate- some way related to his strange and Israel to conduct research for The Little rial about le Carré and Israel, le Carré troubled relationship with Israel.... His Drummer Girl, le Carré told Davis, he connoisseurs will be stuck with a spy- novels dealing with the 9-11 Wars are experienced “the most extraordinary master who, like Markus Wolf, is loath filled with American characters of a pe- carnival of human variety that I have to reveal his entire face. culiarly repulsive kind.” ever set eyes on, a nation in the process In connection with the U.S. war on of re-assembling itself from the shards BENJAMIN WEINTHAL is a fel- terrorism during the post-911 period, of its past, now Oriental, now Western, low at the Foundation for Defense le Carré said his book Absolute Friends now secular, now religious, but always of Democracies. Follow Benjamin (2003) sought to reveal “what could anxiously moralizing about itself with on Twitter @BenWeinthal.

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 19 Hamas: Ironic and Perverse An inFOCUS interview with DOUGLAS J. FEITH

Douglas J. Feith is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, where he works on a range of foreign and defense issues, including terrorism, arms control, alliance relations, national security policy making. He served as undersecretary of defense for policy from July 2001 to August 2005, where he helped devise the U.S. government’s strategy for the war on terrorism and contributed to policy for the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns. He served during the Reagan administration as a Middle East specialist for the National Security Council and then deputy assistant secretary of defense for negotiations policy.

Shoshana Bryen: Let’s jump Messenger is its leader, the Koran is its Shiite Islam. As has been shown fre- right in. You wrote in an arti- constitution, jihad is its methodology, quently in history, however, ideological cle that “Key Biden team mem- and death for the sake of Allah is its opponents manage to create strategic al- bers seem to understand what most coveted desire.” liances against common enemies. Hamas is.” Doug Feith, what is This is the language of the Muslim The Shiite Iranians and the Sunni Hamas? Brotherhood, which was founded in jihadists of Hamas are strategic partners Egypt in 1928. One reason Israel and against Israel. Douglas Feith: Hamas is the Palestinian Egypt have such a cooperative partner- branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. ship in dealing with Hamas is that the Bryen: One can assume those At its founding in 1988, it pub- Egyptian government views the Muslim rocket and missile factories lished a covenant that defines Hamas as Brotherhood as one of its main enemies. supplied by Iran are part of the an acronym for the Islamic Resistance It therefore recognizes Hamas as a hos- infrastructure the Israeli Air Movement and clarifies its identity, out- tile organization. Force attempted to destroy. lines its stand, explains its aims, speaks It’s not just Israel that has been about its hopes, and calls for its support, blockading Gaza. Gaza also has a land Feith: Yes. There is a question about how adoption, and joining its ranks. boundary with Egypt, and Egypt is good the intelligence was. Do the Israelis I quote it because there’s nothing blockading Gaza. And there’s substan- know the locations of all these key facili- like quoting the organization directly tial Egyptian cooperation in trying to ties? The ones they know about can be rather than just characterizing it. keep Hamas from getting weapons and destroyed. But you don’t know what you • “Our struggle against the Jews is very building up its strengths in Gaza because don’t know. great and very serious. Hamas supports Muslim Brotherhood • “There is no solution to the elements hostile not just Israel but to the ❚ Hamas’s Moral Depravity Palestinian problem, except by jihad. Egyptian regime. There’s also the problem that The initiatives, operations, and interna- Hamas, as a matter of practice, locates tional conferences are a waste of time Bryen: But a lot of those weap- its military production facilities and and a kind of child’s play. ons actually do get smuggled its military operational bases to ensure • “The Islamic Resistance Movement across the Egyptian border that when the Israelis attack those fa- is an outstanding type of Palestinian into Gaza. So, although the cilities, there will inevitably be large movement. It gives its loyalty to Allah, Egyptian government’s posi- civilian casualties. This really deserves adopts Islam as a system of life, and tion is in line with the govern- attention because it is unique in history. works toward raising the banner of ment of Israel, the border isn’t No party to a war has ever before, as an Allah on every inch of Palestine. closed. element of its strategy, purposefully ar- • “As far as the ideology of the Islamic ranged to maximize civilian deaths on Resistance Movement is concerned, giv- Feith: Hamas gets financial support its own side. ing up any part of Palestine is like giving from Iran, among other places. This is an I doubt you can cite another example up part of its religion. interesting, complex situation because, of a country that makes one of its funda- • “The motto of the Islamic Resistance as a Muslim Brotherhood organization, mental strategic planks the maximiza- Movement is, ‘Allah is its goal, the Hamas has an ideology very hostile to tion of civilian casualties on its own side.

20 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 DOUGLAS J. FEITH: Interview So, Hamas is doing something that is re- ally innovative, morally horrific and…

Bryen: Disgusting. In June, the UN Special Coordinator for Middle East Peace and Security said openly, overtly, unequivo- cally, that Hamas locating its military effects inside of civil- ian neighborhoods and firing into civilian neighborhoods in Israel is a war crime and it needs to stop immediately.

Feith: It is surprising, and it may be the first time that a UN official made a statement like that about Hamas and did not balance it to set up a kind of moral equivalency with Israel. It may reflect that what Hamas is doing is even worse than the war crime of using civilians as human shields. `The purpose of using human shields in war is to protect what the hu- man shields are shielding. The purpose is not to kill the human shields. In fact, a war party that uses human shields bene- Douglas J. Feith fits if those human shields are not killed. But what Hamas is doing is pur- on the Palestinian side. Israel. The people who do this to deplore posefully maximizing Palestinian civil- This innovative and evil strategy is Israel often speak as outraged humani- ian casualties. It wants to force Israel to a horrifying regression, a repudiation tarians, as people who respect the law of have to kill Palestinian civilians because of the absolute heart of the idea of the war and want to keep civilians safe. But Hamas can then use the Palestinian law of war. People who take the law of their support for Hamas and denuncia- corpses to delegitimate Israel – to make war seriously, and UN officials of course tions of Israel are rewards for Hamas’s the Israelis look brutal and inhumane, to say they do, should recognize that what anti-civilian strategy. make it appear that the Israelis are war Hamas is doing here is not simply violat- Here is the irony and the perverse- criminals. ing the law, but setting it back centuries, ness of it all. When people with humane Hamas’s strategy is deeply ironic, to the era before nations acknowledged instincts side with Hamas because they deeply perverse. their obligation to protect civilians in think Palestinian losses in the war are The strategy aims to exploit the gen- war. “disproportionate” and greater than eral respect around the world for the law Perhaps this recognition is what ac- Israeli losses in the war, they are in effect of war, respect for the principle that ci- counts for the extraordinary criticism of paying for – validating and encourag- vilians should not targeted. This respect Hamas by the UN Special Coordinator ing – the Hamas strategy that is so inhu- is so widespread and intensely held that that you mentioned. We can only hope mane, so regressive, so destructive of the Hamas’s strategy is to harness it in its that that UN official is properly focused very idea of the law of war. ideological war against Israel. on this and understands how outrageous The Hamas strategy therefore is what Hamas is doing is. Bryen: If Hamas maximizes its to base its military assets and military Hamas has adopted this strategy own side’s civilian deaths be- operations in civilian areas. That way, for one reason. It gets rewarded politi- cause it understands it can when Israel, to defend itself, legitimately cally around the world by people who turn the conversation to “look attacks Hamas military targets, there in- cite the Palestinian loss of life and limb at those horrible Israelis kill- evitably will be large civilian casualties in Gaza to condemn – not Hamas – but ing our children,” the question

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 21 is, does it work on the Biden Blinken gave Israel time to do that. its capabilities, but they don’t want to administration? The Biden team was under pres- pay the price of taking over Gaza again. sure from abroad and from within the The question then is, is there a middle Feith: The Biden team put out mixed Democratic Party to push Israel harder ground where the Israelis can go in on signals, which may have been a con- to stop its military operations. They were the ground, destroy Hamas, destroy the scious tactic, or may reflect the reality trying to have it both ways by giving lip infrastructure, and then leave? There of different points of view within the ad- service to the people who demanded a might be large Israeli casualties if they ministration. ceasefire, but not actually demanding an did that, and even larger Palestinian ca- sualties, strong international condem- nation and Israel’s position in the world Hamas is purposefully maximizing Palestinian civilian would suffer. casualties. It wants to force Israel to have to kill There are other people who say the Israelis should go in on the ground, do Palestinian civilians because Hamas can then use the job they need to do, and their posi- the Palestinian corpses to delegitimate Israel... tion in the world wouldn’t be that much worse than it is now when they get de- nounced anyway. Maybe they could The Democratic Party right now immediate ceasefire and not allowing the clean up the Hamas problem to a much has a vigorous debate underway between UN to pass a resolution demanding an greater extent than they can by trying to two factions. One wing is represented immediate ceasefire. fight it from outside and from the air. by “the Squad,” congressional represen- tatives Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Bryen: A ceasefire that leaves ❚ The Iran Deal Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and others. It Hamas in control of various Bryen: It is important to under- is intensely anti-Israel, anti-semitic, very aspects of its military setup stand that there is unanimity outspoken, and reasonably influential. means Hamas gets to determine in Israel about what Hamas is, The other faction is the more traditional the timing of the next war as but what to do about it, not so one, which is generally sympathetic to well, which it seems to me, is an much. You mentioned Iran. The Israel in principle though it strongly fa- intolerable burden on Israel. Biden administration is pursu- vors Israeli politicians on the left over ing a new deal with Iran, in the Netanyahu and his Likud and right-of- Feith: That’s one way of looking at it. course of which they have de- center colleagues. There’s a debate in Israel over military cided, openly, to leave things The argument between these factions strategy. When Prime Minister Ariel off the table: human rights, is also going on within the administra- Sharon decided that Israel was going support for terrorism, includ- tion. Statements by both the President to withdraw unilaterally from Gaza in ing Hamas and Hezbollah but and Secretary of State Blinken reflected 2005, it was an enormously controver- also the Houthis. Does that understanding that Israel needed to rees- tablish deterrence against Hamas. They gave Israel time to punish Hamas for the The administration sent an unconstructive signal by rocket attacks against Israel and to dimin- restoring aid to the Palestinian Authority. Hamas may ish Hamas’s military capabilities, and the combination could restore deterrence. have read it as a sign of possible sympathy for them. It’s worth noting, the last significant war between Israel and Hamas was in 2014. Here we are seven years later. The sial decision. It was so controversial that stoke this problem at this Israelis, through major operations of the it lost Sharon his own political party. time? Did Hamas and Iran think kind that they’re now engaging in, buy a Controversial as it was, once Israel they had a clear shot at Israel few years of quiet. Then there is a flare- got out, there was no substantial po- because the Biden people were up three, five, seven years down the road, litical support for Israel re-taking Gaza. more interested in the Iran and Israel has to strike back at Hamas You hear hardly anybody in Israel say- deal? all over again. That’s the way the Israelis ing, “We wish we controlled Gaza.” have been handling Hamas attacks in And so, the Israelis are constrained. Feith: I think that is slightly less clear. recent years. And it looks like Biden and They would like to destroy Hamas and There are people in the administration at

22 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 DOUGLAS J. FEITH: Interview actually focusing on taking advantage of the Iranians’ weakened position. So far, we don’t have a deal. If the admin- istration maintains the position that they want one, but they can’t achieve one, while keeping the Iranians in a se- vere economic squeeze, that’s not a ter- rible position. I’d feel better if they had a smarter declaratory position, more in line with the more hard-headed posi- tion that some hawks are advocating. But you can’t expect the Biden people to sound like hawks, that’s not their politi- cal constituency.

❚ Funding the PA Equals Funding Hamas Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Photo: kremlin.ru) Bryen: But whether that gives senior levels who are precisely in line with the value of the Iranian currency. It aid and comfort to Hamas and the way you’ve described the policy. But my drove prices up throughout Iran, which its decisions to fire at Israel is sense is there are some people who show created enormous political unhappiness still an open question. at least some awareness that the world has and mass demonstrations against the re- changed in the years since the Obama ad- gime. The Iranians were brought to their Feith: Something that may be encourag- ministration made the Iran deal. knees economically. ing Hamas is the Biden administration’s The world has changed, in ways that As they are trying to revive nego- decision to restore economic aid to the have made Iran a lot weaker than it was tiations with Iran, there are people in Palestinians, despite continuing Pales- five, six, seven years ago. the administration who realize that the tinian support for terrorists. That could America’s unilateral sanctions on Iranians are crippled economically. And have affected Hamas calculations. It may Iran were far more effective than almost so that allows for a harder line by the have led Hamas leaders to think that anybody I know believed was possible. United States. they would not pay a severe price with Most people, including people who were I do think that the Biden administra- the United States by launching their in favor of a very hard line toward Iran, tion is making a terrible mistake in try- rockets at Israel. like myself, believed that to be effective, ing to keep a narrow focus on the nuclear The administration sent an uncon- U.S. sanctions needed to be supported program rather than bringing into the structive signal by restoring aid to the internationally, multilaterally; that the dialogue with Iran all of the Iranian ac- Palestinian Authority. Hamas may have United States by itself would not be able tivities that are counter to American in- read it as a sign of possible sympathy for to put a really effective squeeze on Iran. terests. I also think it’s a mistake to talk them. They got a lot of sympathy from But the squeeze that the Trump admin- about relieving the Iranians rapidly from John Kerry last time around, in 2014, istration put on unilaterally turned out our economic pressure. Whatever hope and they may have thought that the to be far more effective than I believed we have of concessions from the Iranians Kerry team had returned. If they be- was possible. You have to give the Trump – agreement to back off on the activities lieved that, they’re probably now some- administration credit for having seen that are harmful to us – come from that what disappointed. that unilateral U.S. sanctions imposed in enormous economic pressure. We should a very strong fashion could constrain the keep them there. But the Biden adminis- Bryen: It’s okay with me if Iranian economy far more than almost tration’s strategy seems not to take this they’re disappointed. How all the experts said was possible. properly into account. much of this has to do with To give you an example, as a result Nevertheless, they’re not just rush- Hamas-Fatah political war- of the economic sanctions imposed by ing into a deal. They are not relieving the fare? Hamas demands that the Trump administration, Iranian oil economic pressure immediately. And Israel leave the Temple Mount exports went down from around 2.9 it’s possible that some top administra- and stop evicting people from million barrels a day to 0.5 million bar- tion officials are just claiming to want the Sheik Jarrah neighbor- rels a day. That’s stunning. It devastated to restore the old nuclear deal while hood of Jerusalem. This is an

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 23 entry by Hamas into the politi- by the assassination of the Archduke in Israel this spring and continue cal workings of what has his- Sarajevo. There’s a difference between a to provide benefits for both torically been the Palestinian war’s triggering event and a cause. No sides in the future? Authority’s purview on the serious person should believe that the eastern side and the West Bank war between Hamas and Israel is about Feith: The Abraham Accords represent and in Jerusalem. How much of rental payments in Sheikh Jarrah. a strategic decision by Arab countries this is violence between Hamas And that’s why I emphasized the that, in the life and death matter of the and Fatah for control of the importance of the Hamas Covenant. Iranian threat against them, the Israelis Palestinian narrative? I want to remind people to take a step are enormously valuable and effective back and see the strategic picture and allies. That is even more important to Feith: To understand a phenomenon as not get lost in the details of the cur- them than giving support to the long- large as war, you have to take a lot of things rent scene and its particular disputes. standing Palestinian war against Israel, into account. And certainly, the things Hamas is at war with Israel because its especially because Palestinian leaders that you’ve just highlighted are an impor- members believe that Israel’s existence are generally on the side of Iran. That tant element of the current politics. They is an offense against Islam, and against really antagonizes the Gulf Arabs. And the Palestinian leadership is in any event corrupt and ineffectual. The UAE and Bahrain were repudi- The Abraham Accords represent a strategic decision ating the idea that the United States and Israel could make substantial diplomatic by Arab countries that, in the life and death matter progress – and increase strategic coop- of the Iranian threat against them, the Israelis are eration – with the Gulf Arabs only after Israel reached a peace settlement with enormously valuable and effective allies. the Palestinians. The idea had domi- nated U.S. policy for decades. The Gulf Arabs are now saying, however, “It’s not true. We’re willing to have closer coop- provide triggers and political opportuni- the Arab and Palestinian people, and eration with Israel and the U.S. to deal ties for action by Hamas to score points the only way to remedy the injustice and with our important strategic problems, against the PA, to make the PA leadership dishonor caused by Israel is to end its ex- even if the Palestinians remain benight- look, not just corrupt, but old and tired istence. That’s why there’s a war between ed and violent and pro-terrorist and un- and ineffectual. And so, Hamas looks Hamas and Israel. constructive.” That’s what gave rise to young and vigorous, rising to the defense There is no lack of excuses for the Abraham Accords. of Arab interests in Jerusalem. There is Hamas to initiate active combat. There’s The current fighting with Hamas political competition between Hamas and no shortage of rocks to throw, and there’s further shows that Arab parties to the the PLO people who run the PA. no shortage of incidents between Israelis Abraham Accords give more weight and Palestinians that can be used as an to their own particular strategic con- ❚ Causes and Triggers excuse – a trigger – for violence. cerns than to the political preferences But people, and journalists in par- It’s misleading and ignorant for of Palestinians. None of those parties ticular, often fail to see the forest for the journalists and government officials cancelled or suspended the Accords as trees by focusing on current political around the world to believe that what is a result of the Hamas-Israel war - fur- issues – the triggers for current action motivating Hamas, which has a strategic ther proof that the leaders of the UAE, – rather than the deeper motivations. commitment to Israel’s destruction, is Bahrain and the other parties are no The dispute over the Sheik Jarrah neigh- some petty quarrel that Hamas happens longer willing to subordinate their na- borhood of Jerusalem and the clashes to cite for its own immediate political tional security interests to the policies of between Israeli police and Arab demon- purposes. Hamas and the PLO. strators on the Temple Mount at the al- Aqsa mosque may be triggers, but they ❚ The Abraham Accords Bryen: Doug Feith, on behalf are not the cause of the Hamas-Israel Bryen: A concluding question: of the Jewish Policy Center war. When journalists say that those do you think Israel’s relation- and the readers of inFOCUS things caused the war, it’s as ignorant ship with the Gulf states will Quarterly, thank you for an as believing World War I was caused extend beyond the fighting in enlightening conversation.

24 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 By Renewing Palestinian Aid, America Is Funding Terrorism by STUART FORCE and SANDER GERBER

Editor’s Note: After the 11-day Hamas our American taxpayer dollars? all assistance represents a direct benefit. rocket war on Israel, the Biden ad- Fortunately, bipartisan support co- The Biden administration is, nev- ministration announced it would send alesced to re-align misguided U.S. poli- ertheless, forging ahead with new as- aid to Gaza through UNRWA and the cy. In 2018, the Taylor Force Act became sistance to the Palestinians, notwith- Palestinian Authority (PA). This ap- law, prohibiting American economic standing the PA’s refusal to budge on pears to be a violation of both the letter assistance which “directly benefits the blood money payments. It has quietly and the intent of the Taylor Force Act. Palestinian Authority” as long as the PA moved to give $130 million ostensibly continues to pay financial rewards for for Palestinian law enforcement and apt. Taylor Force was an Eagle terrorism. civil society. A recently leaked State Scout, a West Point graduate who Yet, even facing an aid cutoff, the Department memo implies that the aid served multiple tours in Iraq and cash-strapped PA insists on honoring, will go through various civil society CAfghanistan, and an all-around subsidizing and rewarding terrorists, groups and NGOs not officially connect- terrific young man. In 2016, on a univer- condemning efforts to stop the terror- ed to the PA. sity study trip to Israel, he was murdered incentive payments as “insane” and “ag- While that sounds theoretically by a Palestinian terrorist on a stabbing gression against the Palestinian people.” reasonable, practically it merely elevates rampage near Tel Aviv’s beach. He was State Department criteria judge form over substance. It circumvents U.S. twenty-eight years old. Then-Vice President Joe Biden, only minutes away, meeting with Israeli of- ficials, heard the sirens of first respond- ers racing to the scene. His coincidental The Biden administration is... forging ahead with new personal connection to Force’s death makes his emerging Palestinian aid poli- assistance to the Palestinians, notwithstanding the PA’s cy hard to swallow: the proposed aid will refusal to budge on blood money payments. effectively reward such attacks, violating both letter and spirit of an anti-terror- funding law bearing Force’s name. Force’s family suffered another blow when Palestinian authorities declared the terrorist, killed mid-attack by police, whether aid “directly benefits” the PA law by essentially laundering funds that a “hero” and “martyr.” That designation by “the extent of ownership or control will still ultimately benefit and fall un- entitled his family to substantial lifetime the PA exerts over…the primary benefi- der the control of an unrepentant PA, payments. Incredibly, those special “pay- ciary or end user of the assistance,” and still doling out rewards for terror. for-slay” payments to families of such “whether the assistance or services pro- A new PA law has effectively nation- “heroic” terrorists—dozens of whom vided directly replace assistance or ser- alized all once-independent civil society murdered U.S. citizens like Force—were vices provided by the PA.” For example, groups and NGOs. They now must sub- effectively underwritten by hundreds of paying the PA’s electrical bills frees up mit plans and budgets to the PA to review millions of dollars in annual U.S. aid to PA funds for terror reward payments, their conformity with the “work plan the Palestinian Authority (PA). In 2017, and is thus prohibited. The de facto con- of the relevant ministry.” Additionally, those reward payments totaled $345 trol the authoritarian PA exerts over all the law gives the PA power to dissolve million. Is there a more obscene use of Palestinian institutions means almost any organization and seize or transfer

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 25 The Taylor Force Act being introduced by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) and Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) in 2016. Taylor Force’s father, Stuart Force is pictured at the center-right.

its assets “to a similar Palestinian asso- Proponents insist that funding The principle behind the Taylor ciation or institution.” Aid to “indepen- “clean” entities won’t “directly benefit” Force Act is morally compelling and dent” organizations can now be seized the PA or consequently directly fund transcends partisan politics. Hiding be- by the very PA that the United States is terror or “pay-for-slay” payments. From hind semantics to pretend that U.S. tax legally prohibited from funding directly. a purely legal standpoint, that is debat- dollars will not flow to the sponsors and Meanwhile, a new (nonpartisan) able; but from a moral standpoint, it is families of the murderers of Force and Government Accountability Office audit abhorrent: it facilitates “pay-for-slay” so many other Americans is cowardly. shows that from 2015 to 2019, the U.S. through a shell game where the funding Could any honorable administration government could not sufficiently vet aid ultimately lands in the same pockets. In figure look our families in the eye and sub-grantees, as required under U.S. anti- this case, “benefiting” vs. “directly ben- tell us otherwise? The same bipartisan consensus which stood behind this principle before must step forward again: the moral cal- culus is no different today. The adminis- The principle behind the Taylor Force Act is morally tration must not dishonor itself by doing the unconscionable: laundering U.S. tax compelling and transcends partisan politics. Hiding dollars to the very terror networks re- behind semantics to pretend that U.S. tax dollars will sponsible for promoting and rewarding the shedding of innocent blood, particu- not flow to the sponsors and families of the murderers larly that of U.S. citizens. of Force and so many other Americans is cowardly. STUART FORCE is a former US Air Force officer and pilot. He and his wife Robbi were instrumental in the passage of the anti-terror financing law named terrorism laws. That giant unaccountabil- efiting” is a distinction without a moral for their son, Taylor. SANDER GERBER ity loophole has allowed millions in U.S. difference. is the CEO of Hudson Bay Capital taxpayer dollars to flow to terror-sup- However pure our intent, practical- Management, a distinguished fellow at porting sub-grantees, laundered through ly, aid we direct to non-terror-connected JINSA, and a fellow at the Jerusalem misleadingly benign-sounding NGOs Palestinians will be intercepted through Center for Public Affairs. This article orig- such as the Palestinian Peace Coalition the thuggish tyranny of a PA still subsid- inally appeared in The National Interest. and Pal-Think for Strategic Studies. ing “pay-for-slay.”

26 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 Lebanon’s Crisis and Its Impact on Israel by YOCHANAN VISSER

Editor’s Note: Since the Port of Beirut ex- Aboud reported a chronic shortage tried to obtain generators but without fuel, plosion in 2020, Lebanese the currency of medicines and medical equipment in if was pointless. Diab then turned to the has lost 90 per cent of its value, inflation Lebanon. “We can always find a piece of Iraqi government and asked for help – has driven more than half the popula- bread – that is not lacking – but not hav- which he received when Bagdad agreed to tion below the poverty line, the country ing medicine is terrible. Hospitals can’t deliver a portion of the needed fuel. has defaulted on its debts, and banks pay doctors or operate equipment. We are This exposed the real problem in have all but cut clients off from their dol- in a critical situation, and we don’t want Lebanon. Hezbollah. lar deposits. Scenes of shoppers brawl- to die while waiting for a solution to our Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ing over scarce goods, protesters burn- problems.” is the defacto leader of Lebanon and ing tires to block roads, and hundreds Aboud’s statement about “always without his consent nothing happens or of shuttered businesses are common- finding a piece of bread” must be taken will change in the country. Hezbollah’s place. And Israel is Lebanon’s neighbor. with a grain of salt. dominance is a huge problem, but the Less than a year ago a food crisis Lebanese government and military don’t he unprecedented economic, began in the Cedar country, once a hub have the means, or in many cases the political, and social crisis in of prosperity in the Middle East that at- will, to act against the heavily armed Lebanon seems to worsen every tracted many tourists and businessmen. Iranian proxy. Tday and the caretaker government The existing food crisis was greatly ex- Nasrallah intervened in the energy of Prime Minister Hassan Diab gives the impression it has no clue what to do to tackle the country’s myriad problems. Lebanon is “in the heart of great dan- ger” and needs friendly countries to save ...the Lebanese government and military don’t have it, Diab said in June in a televised address the means, or in many cases the will, to act against to the nation. “Either you save it (Lebanon) the heavily armed Iranian proxy. now before it’s too late or else no regrets will help… I call on political powers to present concessions, and those will be small no matter how big they may seem. Only that will alleviate the suffering of the acerbated after the government raised crisis and announced that he would re- Lebanese and stop this frightening path.” the price of bread for the first time in a quest the necessary oil shipments from Diab has been leading the caretaker decade in July 2020. In one fell swoop, the Iranian regime. government since his cabinet resigned bread prices rose 33 percent, causing a in the aftermath of the Beirut port blast run on supermarkets as people tried to ❚ Israel’s Concerns & on August 4, 2020. The giant explosion stock up on essential food items. International Diplomacy devastated large swathes of the Lebanese The food crisis led Al-Makhazen Israel is increasingly concerned that capital and killed hundreds of people Coop, the largest food retailer in Hezbollah and Iran will use Lebanon’s while injuring thousands. To get an idea Lebanon, to close its branches in Beirut. massive economic and social crisis to just how dire the current situation is, The crisis worsened further in June take over the country completely and you only have to read an interview with 2021, with many petrol stations running then prepare for a massive multi-front Michel Aboud the President of Caritas out of fuel. This lack of fuel, in turn, caused attack on the Jewish state. The expand- Lebanon. electricity blackouts. Lebanese residents ing internal crisis accounts for the Israeli

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 27 government’s recent diplomatic offen- sive in Europe and in Russia. In March, outgoing Israeli President Reuven Rivlin and Aviv Kochavi, Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), arrived in Europe to speak with European leaders about the growing threat from Iran through Hezbollah. They spoke with German President Frank Walter Steinmeier and Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. The Israeli del- egation was also in France, where Rivlin and Kochavi spoke with President Emmanuel Macron. France has a historic role in Lebanon as its colonial ruler, and French governments have maintained close ties with Beirut. Macron has spent months trying to mediate between the parties to establish a stable government Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. (Photo: khamenei.ir) in the crisis-ridden country. However, he now gives the impression that he has the government have tried to resolve the in the performance of its duties under given up his effort to find a solution. deadlock by organizing meetings with Resolution 1701: While Rivlin and Kochavi were in members of the political parties, but Germany, Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi their efforts have been in vain thus far. I call upon the Government of Ashkenazi flew to Moscow to discuss the Lebanon to take all actions neces- same subject with his Russian counter- ❚ Undermining Regional sary to ensure the full implementa- part, Sergei Lavrov. Stability tion of the relevant provisions of the The Russian Foreign Minister had Hezbollah’s manipulation of this Taif Accords and of resolutions 1559 received a high Hezbollah delegation two enormous crisis is designed to gain to- (2004) and 1680 (2006), which re- days before he met with Ashkenazi. He tal dominance, threatening not only quire the disarmament of all armed spoke with Mohammed Raad, leader of the Lebanese people and Israel, but also groups in Lebanon so that there the Hezbollah bloc in the Lebanese par- regional stability. This is the conclusion will be no weapons or authority in liament, and urged him to agree to the drawn not only by the Israeli Ministry Lebanon other than those of the formation of a new government under of Foreign Affairs but also by the United Lebanese State. the leadership of Sa’ad Hariri, who had Nations (UN), which published a com- previously served as Lebanon’s Prime prehensive report on the situation. The The terror organization uses the Minister. But it is Raad’s Hezbollah bloc report plainly states that Iran is con- pseudo environmental protection organi- that has been blocking the formation of tinuing its destructive role in the re- zation “Green Without Borders” to block a government since the port explosion. gion by providing financial support to UNIFIL investigations into Hezbollah’s Hezbollah and its Shiite allies have Hezbollah as well as through weapons illegal activities on the border with Israel. held up the formation of a technocrat- and training of Hezbollah terrorists. IDF intelligence officers believe Iran and ic government led by Hariri, a Sunni The UN report further describes the Nasrallah will further exploit the situa- Muslim, because they do not want to situation in southern Lebanon and criti- tion in Lebanon to carry out their plan to lose control. They continue their ob- cized Hezbollah for the continued viola- eventually transform Lebanon into a base structionism to this day, putting up new tion of Security Council Resolution 1701, from which to attack Israel. obstacles to undermine any progress which ended The Second Lebanon War The understanding that Iran and made in political discussions. The situ- in 2006, and called on the (non-existent) Hezbollah may find no serious interna- ation remains stuck now over Shiite op- Lebanese government to take measures tional pushback to their attempt to take position to a proposal to appoint two that will allow the UNIFIL peacekeep- over Lebanon – and that the catastroph- Christian politicians to ministerial posts ing force to do its job. According to UN ic situation there could end in a scenario in the new cabinet. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, like the one that occurred in Syria – Influential Lebanese leaders outside Hezbollah constantly hinders UNIFIL was the reason for Rivlin, Kochavi, and

28 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 YOCHANAN VISSER: Lebanon’s Crisis and Its Impact on Israel Ashkenazi’s trips to Europe and Russia. militias were responsible for the three But while aid appears to be off the As Lebanon continues to slide to- times that rockets were fired at northern table for now and sanctions remain, ward disaster, Iran and Hezbollah make Israel during the eleven-day war. the Biden Administration has allowed their intention to control the country Hezbollah operatives, furthermore, the sale of seven fast patrol boats to even more clear and their threats against led the demonstrations against the Lebanon to go forward. The official- ex anyone pushing for reform in Lebanon IDF near Metullah in northeast Israel. planation for this sale is that it will al- more obvious. In a recent speech from During these clashes, the Israeli army low the Lebanese government to “stop his bunker, Nasrallah even threatened killed one Hezbollah terrorist. smugglers.” the Lebanese citizens who have long It should be understood that the protested the dire economic situation. ❚ Lebanese Frustration smuggling of goods and medicines is It was, therefore, no coincidence that a The Iranians and Hezbollah are ex- an industry for Hezbollah and that number of IDF intelligence officers re- ploiting the crisis by doing nothing to al- Washington expects that these fast pa- cently published an article in the news- leviate the dire situation at home and by trol boats will be manned by members of paper Yediot Aharonot. blocking the formation of a government the Lebanese Army (LAF) in opposition The officers wrote that the IDF that could be able to work to put things to Hezbollah. The LAF, however, can- knows everything about Nasrallah, and in order. Such a government is essential not be seen as a reliable partner for the that the Hezbollah leader knows this. to receiving foreign aid and obtaining a United States, as its members have a long The article was clearly intended as a gigantic IMF loan, which in turn might history of corruption and collaboration warning to Nasrallah: Do not go too far! “save Lebanon,” as Diab put it. with Hezbollah. According to a description of the article, The Lebanese people, meanwhile, A recent report by The Washington Nasrallah is “obsessed with reading are fed up with the total collapse of Institute for Near East Policy, further- Israeli media coverage, with his image their country and have taken to the more, showed that the LAF has no less in Israel and in Lebanon in general and streets again. In June, protesters in vari- than 400 generals who upon retirement with maintaining extraordinary levels ous parts of the country blocked roads “receive a one-time six-figure pension of micromanagement and control of the even amid fears that the Lebanese Army payout, as well as a monthly stipend and Lebanese state.” (LAF) would use force or even live fire a car, driver, and free gas in perpetuity.” to reopen the more important intersec- Former Assistant Secretary of State ❚ The Hamas War tions. They are becoming more desper- David Schenker, who wrote the report, The recent war in southern Israel ate by the day but have no one to turn to. noted that: also showed that Iran, via its proxies in This leads us to the question where Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, pulled the the United States is in this whole drama. Watching Lebanon’s continued dete- strings. Hamas receives $30 million rioration is difficult, but the decline from Iran every month while Palestinian ❚ The American Role is clearly attributable to what the Islamic Jihad (PIJ) openly admits that it The Trump Administration had World Bank recently described as is a de facto branch of the Iran’s Islamic wanted to up the pressure on Hezbollah ‘the disastrous deliberate policy in- Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). and Iran and so put more sanctions on action’ of Lebanese political elites. Both terror organizations in Gaza re- members of Hezbollah. So far, the Biden Washington and its partners should ceived sophisticated weapons from Administration has not lifted these therefore continue using carrots and Iran and their operatives are trained by sanctions. However, the Biden State sticks to press these elites into put- Iranian officers in the local production Department also expressed the view ting their country first, while main- of rockets and missiles. In fact, there was that it wants to maintain “cordial ties” taining the international insistence a so-called “war room” in Beirut during with Lebanon and appears to have given on reform as a prerequisite for a the conflict where IRGC officers togeth- Europe the lead on how to deal with the bailout.” er with Hezbollah and Hamas operatives Lebanese crisis and “fix” the failed state. coordinated the battle against Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken In the meantime, Hezbollah gains Hezbollah was indeed careful not has been in Europe, where he discussed ground, the Lebanese people suffer, and to go too far by opening a second front what to do with Lebanon as long as it has Israel worries. in northern Israel, but it was involved in no functioning government. Massive the war effort by shipping weapons and foreign aid is made conditional by both YOCHANAN VISSER is Middle ammunition to Hamas and by provok- Europe and the U.S. on political and East analyst for several Israeli and ing Israel via Iranian-backed Palestinian economic reforms – something that will Dutch news outlets, including Israel factions in Lebanon and, Syria. Those not happen anytime soon. Today and Israel National News.

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 29 Israel’s Innovation Ecosystem Must Evolve by URI GABAI

he word ‘impossible’ has the top tech companies from around the post-coronavirus era as the Israeli tech ceased to exist in the vocab- world attest to the Israeli high-tech sec- industry is heating up faster than the ulary of technical science tor’s unique global attractiveness, yet the Negev desert in mid-summer. Despite “T…We ourselves will use productivity level in almost every other - or perhaps because of - the pandemic, and carry on every new attempt in our sector is significantly lower than the cor- 2020 was a record-breaking year for Jewish land… making of the new land a responding OECD average. the tech industry, with $10B of equity land of experiments and a model state.” Such dualities are not uncommon investments in Israeli startups, up 25% These words were written more than a in Israeli society. Though Israel is the from 2019. Don’t expect this frenzy to 135 years ago by Theodor Herzl about only democracy in the Middle East, its calm down in 2021. Investments already his vision for the Jewish state’s future. political dysfunction dragged citizens reached the $10B mark in the first five Israel achieved a lot since Herzl through four elections in two years. months, as dozens of startups in Fintech, wrote these words, but the journey is far Israel has a buzzing LGBTQ scene, but cybersecurity, and enterprise software from over. no civil marriage. It mishandled many are raising increasingly bigger rounds In the past two decades, the main- aspects of the battle with coronavirus, (median deal size rose from $6.8B to stream Israeli economy has not caught yet it led the world’s most successful $14B). Assuming this pace continues, up with the extraordinary “Start-Up vaccination campaign, (hopefully) put- it is likely we will surpass $20B, an un- Nation.” Israeli engineers and entre- ting the pandemic behind it. Its educa- thinkable figure pre-corona (average fig- preneurs are behind some of our most tion system produces Nobel Prize win- ure for 2017-2019 was $6.5B). revolutionary smart transportation in- ning scientists and incredible technical True, this isn’t just an Israeli phe- novations (e.g., Via, Waze, Mobileye and minds, but in 2018 it trailed in 41st place nomenon. The pandemic has ushered Moovit), yet Israel has been dragging its in the standardized math test among 79 the world into “The New Digital Age” in feet for decades to adopt the century- countries. which digital interaction is the standard. Working and studying remotely, shop- ping, banking, and checking in with a physician online, and streaming most of entertainment to our living rooms – all The gap between the innovation and mainstream became second nature in 2020. Many of economy is becoming one of the most fundamental these trends are irreversible. And so, we challenges Israel will face in the next decades. see tech companies all over the world racing forward, disrupting one industry after another while creating an unprec- edented amount of wealth. This hyper-digital disruption chang- es not just economies, but also geopoli- old subway technology. Israeli Fintech ❚ Accelerating the Innovation tics. A country’s clout no longer depends innovators, such as Lemonade, Hypo, Economy solely on size and military might. The Fundbox, and Payoneer are disrupting The gap between the innovation ability to form a powerful ecosystem that financial businesses all over the world, and mainstream economy is becoming produces cutting-edge technologies and yet 2020 was the first time in 40 years one of the most fundamental challeng- innovative companies is quickly becom- that a new bank was registered in Israel. es Israel will face in the next decades. ing a key trait in the global balance of Three hundred seventy R&D centers of This gap is widening even faster in the power. The innovation race has replaced

30 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 URI GABAI: The Azrieli Towers, Tel Aviv, a center of commerce in Israel

The Azrieli Towers a center of commerce in Tel Aviv, Israel (Photo: Zoonar GmbH / Alamy) last century’s nuclear arms race, with as- own innovation ecosystem. leadership in the next decades. This is piring global leaders like China choosing Yet in order to transform from an becoming increasingly difficult as more to base their growth strategy on techno- ecosystem leader to a leading economy, countries and regions enter the global logical innovation, and specifically on ar- Israel’s innovation capability must tran- innovation race. And as artificial intel- tificial intelligence (AI). sition to its next phase. Forty years into ligence (AI) turns out to be the gener- Israel’s recent diplomatic break- this unprecedented journey, the out- al-purpose technology of this century, throughs illustrate this phenomenon. Its comes of the Israeli model are clear. The economies with access to big data – AI’s new “popularity” in the region is largely entrepreneurial culture and the level of “fuel” – have an inherent advantage. This due to its technological prowess. The technology are unmatched anywhere in means that Israel, with its nine million Abraham Accords, normalizing the re- the world outside Silicon Valley - Israel people, must be much more innovative, lationship between Israel and the Gulf leads the world in R&D investments, in inventive, and agile than big countries countries, represent the shift from oil to GDP terms, as well as in VC investments whose citizens produce several orders of data as the sine-qua-non of our era. The and startups per capita. Yet at the same magnitude more data. United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other time, the spillovers from this innova- To achieve this, Israel’s tech indus- countries in the region understand that tion to the mainstream Israeli economy try, academia, and government must there is much to be gained from forming are rather scarce, leading to many of the work together to focus and enhance its close ties with the Israeli tech ecosystem. aforementioned dualities. competitive advantage. Indeed, Israel’s Indeed, these newly formed ties are like- Three major goals must be on biggest achievements in the innova- ly to benefit both sides - from Gulf based Israel’s innovation agenda. tion sphere emerged from such public- companies being first clients of Israeli private partnerships that paved the way technologies, through Gulf individuals ❚ Maintaining Tech to what became the “Start-Up Nation.” and funds investing in Israeli start-ups, Leadership Government and academia are especial- to Israeli experts helping UAE and other The first and most basic one is ly important in the beginning of an in- countries in the region strengthen their to maintain and fortify Israel’s tech novation cycle when infrastructure and

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 31 regulation play a crucial role. We are homogenous. The typical tech worker is capabilities are by and large not being currently in such a moment, as econom- usually male, secular, from the middle to directed to address Israel’s societal and ic and social gains from the internet, so- upper-middle class, and lives in the cen- economic needs. Linking these together cial networks, and smartphones begin to ter of the country or in large metropoli- will create opportunities for start-ups to subside, giving way to the age of smart, tan areas. For many Israelis, high-tech is pilot their technologies and solutions, and increasingly independent machines. a closed club reserved for the privileged while benefitting wider parts of Israel’s society. Edtech start-ups can help the ed- ucation system pioneer a hybrid learn- ing model, combining human teachers Israel’s biggest achievements in the innovation and software-based tutoring; healthtech sphere emerged from such public-private companies can use the data in health or- ganizations’ electric medical records to partnerships that paved the way to what became the offer Israeli citizens the most advanced “Start-Up Nation.” precision-medicine treatments; and fin- tech companies can help improve and simplify the tax regime while minimiz- ing the black economy.

One of the major obstacles to sus- few. Remote work is an opportunity to ❚ Conclusion taining Israel’s tech leadership is the overcome that – cultural, religious, geo- In the midst of social tensions and now-chronic shortage of engineers. A graphical, and work-life issues are much erosion of solidarity, we must not lose May 2021 report, by Start-Up Nation easier to overcome when part of the sight of the goal. The path toward eco- Central, showed that even amidst a work can be done from a distance. nomic and social prosperity is clear: it is once-in-a-century pandemic, the over- Incorporating more people into in- only by embracing science and technol- all appetite for tech talent – estimated novative industries is important for most ogy can Israel thrive; it is only by ensur- at more than ten thousand people - still countries, but it is absolutely essential ing equal opportunities for all can it do significantly exceeds the human capi- for Israel. Its size and distance from any so justly. tal Israel produces on a regular basis substantial market make the innovation It is not an easy path. It takes navi- – roughly 6,500 high-tech graduates economy the only globally competitive gating in the most competitive global every year. industry in which Israel can hold a lead- landscape through the ever-changing ership position. Not surprisingly, it is tech environment. To help in that jour- ❚ Expanding and Diversifying much more rewarding relative to other ney, we are establishing an innovation the Talent Pool industries – Israeli high-tech employees policy institute, Start-Up Nation Policy The solution to this shortage lies not earn on average three times the amount Institute (SNPI) – co-chaired by Mr. in middle of Tel Aviv nor in discharged their non-high-tech counterparts do. Paul Singer and Prof. Eugene Kandel – soldiers from the elite intelligence Unit which I am privileged to lead. Our goal 8200. Those talent pools are already ex- ❚ What’s in It For Me? is to help Israeli policy makers navigate hausted. To pump more fuel into its in- The third challenge goes back to the the rough waters of this innovation jour- novation engine, Israel must overcome dualities presented in the beginning of ney, raising tough questions and offering the second challenge in the innovation this article. It is not socially sustainable practical solutions. We plan to partner agenda – integrating untapped wells of to have a thriving tech industry when the with all those who have the same goals talent to the tech scene. This includes majority of Israelis do not benefit from in mind, and we invite those who share women – who currently represent less it. Israeli innovation leadership should our vision to take part in this journey than 30% of tech employees and only 5% not be just about making a small group with us. of CTOs - as well as the ultra-Orthodox of people rich and helping global com- And remember Herzl. and Israeli Arab populations. The latter panies develop their tech products. It two are growing more rapidly than the can and should also be used to improve URI GABAI is CEO of the new Start- rest of the Israeli population, so inte- Israel’s public and municipal services. Up Nation economic and research policy grating them into high-productivity in- This is not just wishful think- institute, a think tank that will focus on dustries is absolutely essential to Israel’s ing. Israeli startups excel in reinvent- sustaining Israel’s long-term economic economic sustainability. ing products, services, and work pro- health by helping the country keep its Israeli high-tech is quite cesses for the entire world. Yet those competitive edge in high tech innovation.

32 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 The New Strategic Context for the U.S.-Israel Partnership by MICHAEL EISENSTADT and DAVID POLLOCK

ith the Biden administration Power competition; restoring global Jerusalem were at odds during President now in office, the U.S. “spe- economic competitiveness; and building Barack Obama’s second term, then in cial relationship” with Israel climate resilience, while addressing de- agreement in the era of President Donald Wis entering a new phase. But velopment, public health, sustainability, Trump, as he withdrew from the Joint its diverse roots remain firmly in place: and similar concerns. And in all these Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), common values, democratic poli- areas, the United States is the preferred as the nuclear deal is known, and reim- tics, and strategic interests, as well as partner of Israeli firms seeking to ex- posed stiff sanctions against Tehran. close intelligence, military, economic, pand operations and access to the global Renewed disagreement can be expected scientific-technological, cultural, and market. Furthermore, while Israel main- as the Biden administration seeks to re- people-to-people ties. At the same time, tains ties with China, the latter’s invest- join the nuclear accord in some form. recent years have witnessed some dra- ment in the Israeli high-tech sector, for As demonstrated by the controversy matic ups and downs in the relation- example, is holding at just around 10 surrounding Israel Defense Forces chief ship, along with significant changes in percent, while the remaining 90 percent of staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi’s public the broader strategic context. is overwhelmingly with Western, and criticism of this U.S. plan, it is best to air At the global level, the sharpen- especially American, partners. these differences privately. Future con- ing U.S.-China – and, to a lesser extent, In the Middle East regional arena, a sultations on this matter, moreover, will U.S.-Russia – competition looms larger major recent shift offers new horizons for likely include a number of Israel’s new today than in the past, while Middle U.S.-Israel cooperation: the tide of Arab Gulf Arab partners. East oil and gas have lost their centrality “normalization” with Israel, which has Yet despite the serious Obama-era to the American economy. Nevertheless, occurred with active American support. quarrel, both sides have long understood the Middle East is an important arena in This current is embodied by the August the value of cooperation against threats this new Great Power competition due 2020 Abraham Accords with the United from Iran. This has included intelligence not just to growing Asian demand for Arab Emirates and Bahrain, later joined sharing, missile defense, joint cyber ac- its energy resources but also to its geo- by Sudan, along with a separate but par- tivities, and covert counterterrorism graphic location, political and religious allel Israeli deal with Morocco. Saudi operations. significance, and continuing potential to Arabia, Oman, and others could follow. In addition, one can readily fore- export instability worldwide. To the ex- This trend overturns the conventional see renewed diplomatic disputes over tent that Great Power competition is in- wisdom that the unresolved Palestinian Israeli-Palestinian issues, including the creasingly economic and technological conflict is an insurmountable obstacle fate of the two-state solution. Managing, as well as military and political, Israel is to decent relations between Israel and if not resolving, such disputes will one Middle East state well-placed to de- Arab states. Beyond that, it paves the pose a complicated challenge for both liver outsize contributions. way for U.S.-Arab-Israel collaboration Washington and Jerusalem. To be sure, Israel is a world-class innovator in in a host of areas. The recent decision by resolving the conflict would be best for technologies that will be critical to meet- the U.S. Department of Defense to move all parties, but this issue is no longer ing future challenges, including artificial Israel from the European Command central to U.S.-Israel bilateral ties or the intelligence (AI), information technol- (EUCOM) to the Middle East–focused region’s politics. ogy (IT), and cybersecurity; sustainable Central Command (CENTCOM) was In the United States, there is rising water, food, and energy solutions; and greeted without objections by America’s partisan polarization regarding Israel high-tech medicine. All these areas are Arab allies and partners and is another (but) American domestic politics is no supportive of America’s foreign poli- important indicator of this new reality. longer the primary driver of the infor- cy priorities: pursuing peaceful Great Regarding Iran, Washington and mal U.S.-Israel alliance. Rather, new

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 33 and Israel collaborate in numerous ar- eas: intelligence sharing, rocket and missile defense, military and defense- industrial cooperation, and, since 9/11, homeland security. • Intelligence Cooperation: U.S.- Israel intelligence cooperation dates to the early 1950s and has long been a pillar of the security relationship. Today, Israeli intelligence remains a major source of information regarding the activities of IS and al-Qaeda and their affiliates, Hezbollah’s global activities, as well as Iran’s nuclear program – as ex- emplified by its successful heist of Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear archive. Israeli sabotage operations, moreover, have helped delay Iran’s nuclear program. Israel’s compara- tive advantages include a sustained focus on key hard targets, the development of unique sources and innovative methods, Israeli air defense commander Brig. Gen. Tzvika Haimovitch, right, shakes hands with and a willingness to incur risk. And as Lt. Gen. Richard Clark, head of the U.S. delegation to the Juniper Cobra air defense U.S. intelligence increasingly turns its exercise in March 2018. (Photo: Israel Defense Forces) attention to China, Russia, and North regional and global realities, along with with substantial military and economic Korea and U.S. intelligence spending the tangible benefits to the United States aid – topping $146 billion since 1949. likely remains flat or decreases, America of security and economic partnerships Moreover, military equipment preposi- will rely more on allies such as Israel to fill with Israel, now drive the “special rela- tioned in Israel, valued at around $1.2 capabilities and knowledge gaps, manage tionship” to a greater extent. billion, is available to support U.S. con- risk, and maintain situational awareness tingencies in the eastern Mediterranean in the Middle East. ❚ The Enduring Strategic Logic and Persian Gulf. This assistance has • Missile Defense. Israel – America’s of the Alliance helped Israel build an extremely capable most sophisticated partner in this arena The U.S.-Israel special relationship military that can independently ensure – is the only country worldwide with has traditionally been defined in terms the survival of the state, without U.S. an operational national missile defense of a moral obligation, shared values, military intervention. system protecting major population and common interests. During the Cold Washington, moreover, is still seen centers. U.S. aid for this program since War, Israel also came to be seen as a as an address for Arabs seeking to influ- the early 1990s totals more than $7 bil- strategic asset that served as a bulwark ence Israeli policies, while Israel is still lion. In return, the United States has against Soviet influence and a counter to seen as an address for Arabs seeking obtained a deeper understanding of the radical Arab nationalism. U.S. military to influence Washington. Indeed, the rocket and missile threat in the Middle assistance to Israel contributed to peace recent Abraham Accords were at least East, and lessons drawn from Israel’s treaties with Egypt and Jordan and has partly born of these kinds of calcula- extensive operational experience since deterred the outbreak of major interstate tions. And Israel is seen by a number of 1991. Israel’s Iron Dome counter-rocket Arab-Israel conflicts since 1982. Arab states as a critical ally in the strug- and mortar system – the most active Washington has demonstrated gle to contain Iran’s influence, as the component of the country’s rocket and a commitment to preserving Israel’s United States draws down its military missile defenses – is credited with more “qualitative military edge,” bolster- presence in the region. than 2,400 intercepts and an 85 percent ing Israeli deterrence against hostile success rate, enabling Israel to act with state and nonstate actors. The United ❚ Countering Traditional and relative restraint in the face of frequent States has also granted Israel “major Emerging Military Threats rocket attacks from Gaza. non-NATO ally” status, signed a free To address common traditional In light of this success, the United trade agreement with it, and provided it hard security threats, the United States States has purchased two Iron Dome

34 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 MICHAEL EISENSTADT and DAVID The New Strategic Context for the U.S.-Israel POLLOCK: Partnership batteries – renamed “SkyHunter” by arms exports in that year. Israeli firms diplomatically isolating the Jewish state, the U.S. Army – to fill an interim cruise partner with American counterparts or limiting its military and economic op- missile defense gap, and elements of the create U.S. subsidiaries to enhance the tions, and pressuring it to unilaterally system are being considered as a long- prospects of sales to the U.S. military and withdraw from the West Bank – which, term answer to the growing rocket, to third countries, thus preserving or cre- for many BDS proponents, is a first step unmanned aircraft system (UAS), and ating American jobs. A number of Israeli toward dismantling Israel itself. Such ef- cruise missile threat. However, interop- firms are also trusted suppliers of major forts have not garnered widespread sup- erability and cyber vulnerability chal- components for U.S. weapons systems. port in the United States and have had a limited impact thus far. Nevertheless, they could, if successful, harm invest- The past decade has shown the most promising ment in Israel and hinder collaborative areas for U.S.-Israel engagement to be in the wider R&D and production efforts that are central to the Israeli economy, to high- regional and global arenas, rather than the narrow tech sectors of the U.S. economy, and to Israeli-Palestinian framework... the broader U.S.-Israel relationship. • Peace with the Palestinians. The perception that Israel bears significant responsibility for the impasse with the lenges may preclude their integration • Artificial Intelligence. The AI rev- Palestinian Authority has gained trac- into U.S. missile defenses. Looking to- olution promises to transform every tion in various U.S. circles, and could ward the future, Israel and the United aspect of human activity, and Israel is eventually endanger the U.S.-Israel States are discussing joint R&D for la- poised to help lead it – ranking first glob- relationship. ser weapons and hypersonic missile ally in the number of AI companies per defenses. capita, and third globally in the number ❚ Regional Cooperation: A • Military Cooperation The U.S. and of AI start-ups. Israeli developers and “New Normal” Israeli armed forces have benefited from start-ups are teaming up with American The past decade has shown the most decades of extensive collaboration in the partners, from giant corporations to promising areas for U.S.-Israel engage- fields of counterterrorism, military les- small and medium-size entrepreneurs. ment to be in the wider regional and sons learned, and UAS employment. global arenas, rather than the narrow • Counterterrorism. The Israeli mili- ❚ Future Challenges Israeli-Palestinian framework, based tary conducted the first successful res- While Israeli contributions to U.S. not only on growing, mutually beneficial cue of hostages from a hijacked airplane economic, national security, and foreign U.S.-Israel economic partnerships, and in 1972 and pioneered many of the tac- policy objectives are substantial, achiev- on the Arab normalization wave, but tics eventually adopted by U.S. and al- ing the full potential of the partnership also on the closer cooperation between lied counterterrorism units. will require both sides to address several Washington and Jerusalem on other im- • UAS, counter-UAS, and robotics. challenges: portant regional issues – including Syria, Israel is producing robotic systems for • Lingering Mistrust. Despite enjoy- Iran, and the eastern Mediterranean. use on the land and in the sea, and its ing intimate ties, an undercurrent of Accordingly, the United States military is pushing to rapidly integrate mistrust continues to affect U.S.-Israel should work with Israeli and Arab dip- robotic systems into its force structure. relations. This is the result of a num- lomatic partners to create synergies be- The U.S. military is evaluating a num- ber of events, including the 1980s-era tween the normalization process and ber of Israeli robotic systems, including Jonathan Pollard espionage affair, secret Palestinian needs. If Palestinians resist the unmanned Micro Tactical Ground U.S. nuclear talks with Iran followed by joint projects with Israel aimed at en- Robot and the manned EZRaider HD4 Israel’s open lobbying against the 2015 hancing their quality of life, addressing off-road vehicle. nuclear deal, and Israel’s commercial water and food security challenges, and • Defense-industrial cooperation. In ties to China. While differences between building climate resilience, then perhaps the past two decades, Israel has emerged even the closest of allies are inevitable, Arab partners can help. as a major supplier of defense articles the United States and Israel can do more This growing momentum on the to the U.S. military, with sales growing to avoid or defuse such tensions. regional front, moreover, could prompt from $300 million annually in the 1990s • Delegitimization. Israel’s critics and Egypt and Jordan to warm up their to nearly $1.5 billion annually in 2019 – enemies are turning to boycott, divest- “cold” peace accords with Israel. While about 20 percent of Israel’s $7.2 billion in ment, and sanctions (BDS) as a means of they cooperate closely with Israel on

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 35 border and other security issues, and future of both countries. In particular, ❚ Conclusions periodically on shared energy or water protecting the fruits of joint U.S.-Israel In today’s global context, Israel is issues, conspicuously lacking have been investments and R&D in cutting-edge one of America’s most valuable strategic the deeper economic, environmental, proprietary technologies, formulas, and partners – one that not only shares myr- public health, and other ties that would processes – both civilian and military – iad interests and values with the United clearly benefit all three countries. will be key to preserving U.S. and Israeli States, but also makes unique contribu- global competitiveness. Washington and tions to addressing common challenges ❚ Hard Security Partnerships Jerusalem should therefore tighten and in the military, economic, sustainability, Despite longstanding U.S.-Israel co- broaden cybersecurity cooperation and and other domains. The Biden adminis- operation on hard security issues, room seek collaborative cybersecurity ventures tration, even as it attends to other urgent exists for broader and deeper engage- with other high-tech democracies. And concerns, should build on the achieve- ment on several fronts. on projects in they should consider creating a joint AI ments of its predecessors to broaden and the region and beyond. Finally, Israel al- R&D institute, emulating successful enti- deepen this partnership toward achiev- ready participates in several significant ties in other areas, such as the U.S.-Israel ing its full potential – for the benefit of UN regional programs, with represen- Energy Center and the BIRD Foundation. the people of both countries and of the tatives at the Middle East Desalination • Growing the National Technology global community. For the relation- ship’s potential to be fully realized, U.S. commercial, technical, scientific, medi- cal, and aid agencies should take even greater advantage of Israeli expertise – In today’s global context, Israel is one of America’s and more actively involve Israel along- side other international partners. And most valuable strategic partners... the U.S. private sector, which is already deeply invested in practical partnerships with its Israeli counterparts, should be further incentivized to bring home the benefits of these unusually productive Research Center in Oman (since 1996) and Industrial Base. The United States connections. and the International Renewable Energy must strengthen technological/industrial To be sure, even the closest allies oc- Agency headquarters in the UAE (since cooperation with other states. The abil- casionally disagree; and some U.S.-Israel 2015). This is the ideal time for the United ity to do so is one of America’s key asym- disagreements are almost inevitable, re- States to become more engaged in these metric advantages vis-à-vis strategically garding both Iran and the Palestinians. endeavors, which would serve multiple lonely adversaries such as China, Russia, Yet as this paper has shown, those is- American and global objectives. North Korea, and Iran. To this end, the sues are no longer the centerpiece of • A drone and missile defense U.S. should consider expanding the NTIB bilateral relations. Instead, a whole web “Manhattan Project.” Increasingly, the – a defense technology alliance that cur- of mutual interests and joint projects United States faces adversaries such as rently includes the United States, Canada, – whether security-related, economic/ Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia Britain, and Australia – to include Israel scientific, or some combination thereof that rely on drones and surface-to sur- and other high-tech partners that share – links the two countries, in ways that face missile systems as core compo- U.S. interests and values. President Biden benefit both. And with the current wave nents of their anti-access/area-denial should also consider following up on his of Arab-Israel normalization, those ben- (A2AD) and warfighting capabilities. proposed “Summit for Democracy” by efits promise wider sharing across the Everywhere, expensive U.S. and allied creating an informal grouping of high- region as a whole. missile defenses risk being overwhelmed tech democracies to set norms, define a by much cheaper and more numerous common agenda on emerging issues, Israel MICHAEL EISENSTADT is director of adversary drones and missiles or defeat- should be included as a founding member- Military and Security Studies Program at ed by countermeasures. state of such a grouping, which would offer The Washington Institute for Near East • Cybersecurity and AI. Protecting in- new ways to advance the U.S.-Israel rela- Policy. DAVID POLLOCK is director of tellectual property from theft and indus- tionship in a multilateral framework. This TWI’s Project Fikra. This article is ex- trial espionage, and protecting economic could likewise require hard decisions by cerpted from a TWI policy Paper available activity and infrastructure from cyber- Israel regarding its ties to China. at https://www.washingtoninstitute.org. attack, will be critical to the economic

36 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 Beach Reading review by SHOSHANA BRYEN

ake an Iranian to the beach. Take familiar to post-Shah observers), and a than constitutional rule soured his re- several. Throw in the CIA, State desire to emulate the rapid moderniza- lations with several streams of Iranian Department, Presidents from tion of Germany in the 1930s. Not quick society, while rapid modernization TFDR to Carter, and shake well. enough to expel the Nazis, Reza Shah strained relations among his traditional Swallow and digest. These three books was exiled in 1941 by the British in fa- support groups. His increasingly fear- will remind you how Shah Reza Pahlavi vor of his 21-year-old son, Crown Prince ful isolation, leading to the rise of the lost the Peacock Throne (it was a much Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. After WWII, SAVAK as his protector rather than longer and more interesting process the crises of oil nationalization and the army of the state, should be seen as than you might think), how the soap Azerbaijan, the departure of the British a model for the rise of the IRGC. The opera of mullahs and seminarians took from the region, and the entry of the ruthless Khomeini was left as the only advantage of the ultimate weakness of United States set the stage. The young force able to mobilize the people. Takeyh the Shah and each other, and enlight- Shah was a modernizer as well. writes, “No one was willing to die for the en you with the undercurrents of dis- And therein lies the tale. Shah.” sent in Iran today. And what America Takeyh expertly explores – with But where the Shah was unwilling understood, and what it missed, in the some sympathy for just about everyone to kill Iranian citizens, Khomeini had process. Read them in order. except for the Ayatollah Khomeini – the no such scruples, nor do his successors. many threads and personalities in Iran’s society over time – mullahs, landlords, bazaar shopkeepers and traders, teach- ers, student, peasant farmers, the army, and the elites. Communists, socialists, re- formers, and traditionalists. They all in- teracted, made alliances, broke them, and made others. The mullahs had no trouble talking to the communists, the army, and the mullahs, and so on. Interestingly, the CIA comes out looking pretty good, both in the Mosaddeq period (noting that there were two coups, and the CIA was only diffidently engaged in the first, failed one) and in the Carter period. Carter looks stronger than he is often portrayed. Truman and Eisenhower were the last presidents to decline U.S. aid to the Shah on the grounds that there was plenty of revenue available to Tehran if it would Start with The Last Shah: America, solve its own oil nationalization problem To better understand the soap op- Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi – and that American taxpayers would era that was Iran’s religious politics, dip Dynasty by Ray Takeyh of the Council disapprove. into The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran on Foreign Relations. A former State Even the Shah has some good years. by Alex Vatanka, who should have had Department official and an Iranian His reforms of the 1960s and ‘70s actu- a better English-language editor. Born American, Takeyh starts with Reza ally did change the dynamic in society, in Tehran, his family fled, and he spent Shah’s attempt to modernize the coun- particularly in the area of land reform, his youth in Denmark. Educated later in try prior to World War II. The arrange- and the 1970s were generally economi- England, he moved to the United States ment was oil for machinery and technol- cally and socially positive. But the Shah’s in 2006. Vatanka concentrates on the ogy from Germany (which should sound increasing interest in dictatorship rather relationship between Akbar Hashemi

Israel: Flourishing Under Fire| inFOCUS 37 Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, social opportunities, so The Fight for Iran but the two – alternately partners and ri- tells the same tale in our own decade. It vals – are central to a swirling and ever- is a reminder that the people of Iran have changing cast of Iranians who believed been living with upheaval for a very long the revolution a) could be tamed and b) time. Berman starts with the Trump was getting started in Iran, but had larg- Administration’s rejection of the 2015 er, worldwide goals. JCPOA (the “Iran deal”), which was cou- The bloody years of 1979-81 ulti- pled with his intention NOT to overthrow mately produced an Iranian regime that the current Islamic government. That was was closed, radical, and single-minded. a disappointment to many people – par- Khomeini renounced whatever liberal- ticularly inside Iran and particularly in ism he evinced in Paris during his exile. light of the disintegration of the Iranian “I said many things in Paris. But I do not economy in 2019 and into the pandemic consider myself bound by them.” Or any- period of 2020. thing else. For those who believed Tehran This is a roadmap. Former Crown wanted relations with the U.S. and want- Prince Reza Pahlavi, the (reformed?) ed to find a way out of the hostage crisis, Mujahedin e-Khalq (MeK) with its vio- the chants of pro-Khomeini demonstra- lent background, women, particularly tors are instructive. “War, war until the Masih Alinejad a former reporter and Removal of Intrigue from the Whole So, you really need The Fight for the women of anti-hijab campaign, and World.” And “The road to Jerusalem goes Iran: Opposition Politics, Protest, and civil society groups and other organiza- through Karbala (in Iraq).” the Struggle for the Soul of a Nation by tions are all out there, popping up and It was all there for the U.S. to see Ilan Berman of the American Foreign dropping down. The chapter on ethnic and to respond to. Yet, some Americans Policy Council. By itself, the book is odd. divisions is essential reading – what is the – including the Obama and (apparent- A compendium of Berman’s published role of the nearly 27 million Azerbaijanis ly) the Biden administration, through columns from 2019 and 2020 defining and 8 million Kurds and 5 million Arabs the JCPOA and even now – believe the Iranian opposition groups and their re- among 42 million Persians? Islamic Republic can be dealt with. lations with the United States. Or their In the civil society chapter, Berman Iranian cheating before and during the desired relations with the United States. writes: JCPOA, the financial and military sup- I was prepared to dislike it. But I port for Hezbollah and Hamas (including can’t. There is too much important ma- According to [activist Marian in the 2021 Hamas rocket war on Israel), terial here – much of it lost in the anti- Memarsadeghi] Iran’s population to- the murderous Iranian proxy army war- Trump whirlwind of 2016-2020. In fact, day is very similar to the captive audi- ence that languished behind the Iron Curtain. It… understands full well the deformities of the current regime, Takeyh expertly explores – with some sympathy chafes under its increasingly blatant for just about everyone except for the Ayatollah excesses, and has given up hope that any meaningful reform of the existing Khomeini – the many threads and personalities in system is possible. But it is also one Iran’s society over time... that is demoralized by a lack of atten- tion from the outside world and out- gunned by the increasingly repressive practices of the ruling regime.

fare through the Sunni center of Syria, the this might be the most important of the Time does march on, not always as Shiite militias of Iraq, the purges of the three because while history is interesting, Berman would have it. The chapter on Iranian Army that killed thousands of Berman’s dissidents plan to be the future. then IRGC posits that the Revolutionary officers, the political assassinations, and Berman – a terrific writer – brings Guard might be the catalyst for over- the religious suffocation of the Iranian Takeyh up to date. As The Last Shah throwing the regime and notes that some people should have told us something. makes clear that there are diverse streams observers thought the death of Soleimani But no. of Iranians wanting diverse political and would been the end of the Guard. But no.

38 inFOCUS | Summer 2021 SHOSHANA BRYEN: At heart, all three books are about in the World: How Jack, Bobby, and Ted that stays inside its boundaries and America as much as about Iran. Iranians Remade America’s Empire by historian doesn’t threaten other countries or peo- are always asserting their need to be a Lawrence J. Haas, reviewed in inFOCUS ple of other religions. Nice, idealistic major power while waiting for someone Quarterly, Spring 2021]. Nixon and Ford American goals for others and for our- to rescue them from their internal con- moved closer to the Shah’s view. Carter selves. But after the hideous experiences tradictions. But it is unlikely that any- was surprisingly unhappy with the rise of countries where the U.S. overthrew one will or can. The Americans want to of the mullahs. leaders – Iraq, Libya, Egypt – and waf- Book Review be helpful, even when American “help” Some of Berman’s dissident groups fling on war crimes in Syria – the gov- makes things worse, as it sometimes did. want the United States to overthrow the ernment doesn’t have any good plans. Takeyh limns relations between the mullahs and others want Washington to So, Berman has prescriptions: Shah and Presidents Truman through convene a “congress” of change-makers. • Make human rights a real issue • Reach out to the Iranian people through America’s Radio Liberty and Radio Farda, both of which need signifi- ... all three books are about America… What does cant upgrading, and • Encourage collaboration among op- American want? …for people to have a calm, safe, position groups. prosperous life, with a government that stays inside Sigh and reapply your sunscreen. The Biden administration is currently its boundaries and doesn’t threaten other countries... looking for a “peace process” with Iran that involves restoration of the JCPOA and the money. If he succeeds, the dissi- dents will be further crushed, the region Carter. The earlier presidents were un- Some want the U.S. to strangle the econ- will be in further upheaval with Iranian willing to support the Shah’s desire for omy and others want it to strangle the gains in the Red Sea, North Africa and a bigger and stronger military. Kennedy government. None want a return to the in countries surrounding Israel. But you was a true believer in the power of tech- JCPOA or a revival of the money spigot will know more. nology and education coupled with good to the mullahs. governance to produce healthy, forward- What does America want? What we SHOSHANA BRYEN is Senior looking countries in what was then always want – for people to have a calm, Director of The Jewish Policy Center called the Third World [see The Kennedys safe, prosperous life, with a government and Editor, inFOCUS Quarterly.

Vice Chairmen: Board of Fellows: Marshall J. Breger Richard Baehr Michael David Epstein William J. Bennett Mona Charen Honorary Chairman: Midge Decter Sheldon B. Kamins Rabbi Daniel Lapi Michael A. Ledeen General Counsel: Michael Medved Jeffrey P. Altman David Novak Daniel Pipes Board of Trustees: John Podhoretz Diana Epstein Norman Podhoretz Cheryl Halpern Dennis Prager Joel Hoppenstein Ilya Shapiro Eliot Lauer Tevi Troy J. Philip Rosen Ruth Wisse Walter Stern

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❚ A Final Thought ...

❚ A Final Thought ... U.S.tk Aid for Terrorists? Money doesn’t care where it’s spent – or by whom on what. home on a Friday night after Sabbath dinner. Palestinian cous- Whiletk we talk about “dirty money” or “laundering money” to ins Amjad Mahmad Awad, and Hakim Mazen Awad confessed make it clean, the morality of money is with the people who and there was DNA evidence. Amjad told court reporters: “I spend it. People who spend money doing inoffensive – or even don’t regret what I did, and I would do it again. I’m proud of good—things with their money are still behaving immorally if what I did, and I’ll accept any punishment I get, even death, their money helps bad people do bad things with other money. because I did it all for Palestine.” It’s a sort of “money laundering” in reverse. If you can Three-month-old Hadas was decapitated. make dirty money clean, you can make clean money dirty. Having now spent 10 years in an Israeli prison, the Awad Good money becomes bad by virtue of its impact. And other- cousins are entitled to a 50 percent increase in their PA stipend, wise-good people become tainted by their willingness to help a monthly “salary” of $1,806. They have received more than bad people do bad things. $100,000 thus far – and they’re only still in their twenties. That will be the effect of President Joe Biden’s restoration Where will that money come from? Possibly, from the U.S. of American funds to the PA. American money will be used for providing “clean” money that the PA will convert into “dirty” schools, water projects, “civil society” programming and agri- money – amounting to laundering money for terrorists. culture. But fungibility means that the PA won’t have to spend And just how dirty will it be? Very. its money on those things and will therefore have more money to pay terrorist salaries. It is a violation in the spirit, if not the –Shoshana Bryen letter, of the bipartisan Taylor Force Act. Editor, inFOCUS Quarterly The PA calls the money paid to terrorists “sacred.” Let’s talk about what is sacred and why. Ehud Fogel, Ruth Fogel and three of their six children – Yoav, 11, Elad, 4, and infant Hadas – are dead, massacred at