VOLUMEVOL. 9 ISSUE 15 ISSUE 4 | FALL 3 | 2015 SUMMER 2021 ininFOCUSFOCUSQUARTERLY Israel: Flourishing Under Fire David Wurmser on Israel’s War with Hamas | David M. Weinberg on the Promise of the Abraham tktk on tktk | Accords | Hussain Abdul-Hussain on Palestinian Statehood | Yoram Ettinger on Israel’s Demography | Benjamin Weinthal on John le Carré | Stuart Force and Sander Gerber on Enforcing the Taylor Force Act | Yochanan Visser on the Failed Lebanese State | Uri Gabai on Israel’s Innovation Ecosystem | Michael Eisenstadt and David Pollock on U.S.-Israel Cooperation | Shoshana Bryen reviews Three Books on Iran ALLIANCES:Featuring AMERICAN an Interview INTERESTS with DouglasIN A CHANGING J. Feith WORLD LETTER FROM THE PUBLISHER elcome to our annual “Israel David Weinberg describes the growth inFOCUS issue.” A few months ago, we of the Abraham Accords countries’ rela- VOLUME 15 | ISSUE 3 planned a look at Israel’s pan- tions with Israel and why the Hamas war demic policies, vaccination will not collapse the pacts as some fear – Publisher W Matthew Brooks policies, and neighbors. We were optimis- and others hope. Yoram Ettinger and Uri tic about Israel, its people and its society. Gabai bring us demographics and eco- Editor The recent round of the Hamas war against nomics – the latter being somewhat mixed, Shoshana Bryen Israel was a shocker in some ways – num- but with the potential to broaden and Associate Editors ber of rockets, scale of damage, riots by deepen Israel’s wealth. U.S.-Israel security Michael Johnson Israeli Arabs, and the rise cooperation, a mainstay of Lisa Schiffren in attacks on American and relations since the Reagan Copy Editor British Jews. But we also Administration, receives Shari Hillman saw strong support from an update from Michael Published by: Republicans in Congress, Eisenstadt and David Jewish Policy Center Israel’s Abraham Accords Pollock. And Benjamin PO Box 77316 partners, and Central Weinthal explores John Washington, DC 20013. European governments, and surprising LeCarre’s relationship with Zionism. (202) 638-2411 support from Germany and France. Egypt Shoshana Bryen goes to the beach was, as it often is, quietly helpful. As we with Ray Takeh’s The Last Shah: America, Follow us: survey the aftermath, and fully cognizant Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty; JewishPolicyCenter of the fact that this was only one battle in Alex Vatanka’s The Battle of the Ayatollahs @theJPC Hamas’s determined war to dismantle the in Iran; and the invaluable The Fight for State of Israel, we remain optimistic about Iran: Opposition Politics, Protest, and the The opinions expressed in inFOCUS do not Israel, its people, and its society. Struggle for the Soul of a Nation by Ilan necessarily reflect those of the Jewish Policy Center, its board, or its officers. David Wurmser explains the origins Berman. of the fighting (not what you think), and If you appreciate what you’ve read, I To begin or renew your subscription, please Douglas Feith explains why it is only one encourage you to make a contribution to contact us: [email protected] round in a perpetual war. Hussein Abdul- the Jewish Policy Center. As always, you Hussein parses Palestinian politics and can use our secure site: http://www.jew- © 2021 Jewish Policy Center Sander Gerber and Stuart Force believe re- ishpolicycenter.org/donate storing U.S. aid to the PA violates both the Sincerely, spirit and the letter of the Taylor Force Act. www.JewishPolicyCenter.org Yochanan Visser chronicles the decline of Lebanon under the increasing tight grip of Matthew Brooks, Iran’s proxy Hezbollah. Publisher DAVID WURMSER, Ph.D., is a senior analyst at the Center YOCHANAN VISSER is Middle East analyst for several Israeli for Security Policy. (3) and Dutch news outlets. (27) DAVID M. WEINBERG is vice president of the Jerusalem URI GABAI is CEO of Start-Up Nation, an economic and re- Institute for Strategy and Security. (7) search policy institute. (30) Featuring HUSSAIN ABDUL-HUSSAIN is a DC-based policy analyst whose MICHAEL EISENSTADT is the director of the Military and work appears both in English and Arabic. (11) Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for YORAM ETTINGER is a retired Israeli diplomat. (14) Near East Policy. DAVID POLLOCK is TWI’s director of BENJAMIN WEINTHAL is a fellow at the Foundation for Project Fikra. (33) Defense of Democracies. (17) SHOSHANA BRYEN is Senior Director of the Jewish Policy DOUGLAS J. FEITH is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute. (20) Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly. (37) STUART FORCE is a former U.S. Air Force officer and pi- lot. SANDER GERBER is the CEO of Hudson Bay Capital Management and a distinguished fellow at JINSA. (25) The Hamas War Against Israel by DAVID WURMSER t is important to revisit the source first week of May. And yet, cancelling As the Palestinian Media Watch, and of the Hamas war in May to expose the elections was not simple, since both FLAME – an organization dedicat- the underlying political and strategic Abu Mazen’s aides and Hamas leaders ed to accuracy in media – noted, the Itrends that drove the situation to the made it clear that the latter would take to Palestinian official media organs started point of eruption. Moreover, none of the streets in a violent upheaval against broadcasting highly inflammatory and these trends are effectively suppressed the PA and Abu Mazen if he did. Abu bloody rhetoric starting on April 2. Two or resolved as a result of the war that Mazen saw no way out except to provoke particularly disturbing attacks, one a followed, which means that the coming a series of escalations that would exter- beating by three Arab youths of a Rabbi months will quite likely remain tense nalize the anticipated violence, and then in Jaffa, in the southern part of Tel Aviv, for Israel, and quite possibly again be- deflect the blame onto Israel. and another when an Arab spilled boil- come very violent. As such, the resulting two months ing liquid on a Jew entering the Old City This dangerous dynamic is exacer- of escalation, culminating in war, were of Jerusalem, were followed by violent bated by the failure of the United States set by Abu Mazen, who can properly be Arab demonstrations when police at- to preemptively and strongly signal that labelled as the crisis’ original arsonist. tempted to arrest the perpetrators. it will not allow a wedge to be driven between Washington and Jerusalem. ❚ Beginning in April ❚ Palestinians Organizing Instead, there is a strong expectation Politics among Palestinian fac- Through Social Media among various Palestinian factions and tions is often battled out through the Palestinians conducting these at- their foreign patrons that the opposite currency of Jewish blood. Once the PA tacks in early April filmed their exploits will occur and that any further violence embarked on an escalatory path, that es- and posted them to TikTok to compete will only build greater tension between calation multiplied to as many factions for the greatest number of “likes” and Israel and the United States. This then as there are among Palestinians and “approvals.” This wave of Palestinian at- would further encourage the eruption of Israeli Arabs. Like the epic art of Middle tacks on unsuspecting Jews became so violence which aligns with the underly- Eastern storytelling, the singular “um- prevalent that the escalation was dubbed ing interests of the various Palestinian brella” theme of escalation is actually the “TikTok Intifada.” factions and surrounding ambitious the product of many separate sub-tales After two weeks of these violent at- Turkish and Persian neighbors. woven into other tales which align into tacks, a small group of extremist Jews a shell or framework story. In this case, marched in the streets of Jerusalem ❚ Orchestrated Violence that unifying shell tying these separate calling for harming Arabs. Small dem- Context is everything. tales together represents a very real mo- onstrations in Jaffa near the area of Early this year, against the advice ment of danger. the April 20 attack on the Rabbi also of most of his closest aides, PA president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) called for the first Palestinian elections in well over a decade, to be held at the end of Abu Mazen saw no way out except to provoke a series May. It appears to have been a horrible miscalculation. By the end of March, it of escalations that would externalize the anticipated was painfully clear to him and everyone violence, and then deflect the blame onto Israel. else that not only would he not win, but would be trounced, with both Hamas and Marwan Barghouti’s faction of the PLO defeating him. To avoid such a devastating humili- In early April, there was a sudden took place. There were no similar acts ation, it was clear by very early April that escalation of attacks on Israeli Jews, or Jewish demonstrations prior to this. Abu Mazen would have to cancel those many of which were serious and vio- There were also one or two localized acts elections, which he eventually did the lent enough to result in hospitalization. of anonymous Jewish graffiti-spraying Israel: Flourishing Under Fire | inFOCUS 3 with hateful slogans, and the destruc- action on the Temple Mount. One night had erupted on the Temple Mount, with tion of a few trees. in late April registered nearly three doz- hundreds injured, including many po- These incidents were isolated and en rocket attacks onto Israeli towns and lice. Rioters retreated into the mosques limited. Israeli authorities investigated cities near Gaza. The northern border on the Temple Mount, and police were and will prosecute them.