DOCSLIB.ORG

BMJ Open Is Committed to Open Peer Review. As Part of This Commitment We Make the Peer Review History of Every Article We Publish Publicly Available

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
BMJ Open Is Committed to Open Peer Review. As Part of This Commitment We Make the Peer Review History of Every Article We Publish Publicly Available BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021. Downloaded from BMJ Open is committed to open peer review. As part of this commitment we make the peer review history of every article we publish publicly available. When an article is published we post the peer reviewers’ comments and the authors’ responses online. We also post the versions of the paper that were used during peer review. These are the versions that the peer review comments apply to. The versions of the paper that follow are the versions that were submitted during the peer review process. They are not the versions of record or the final published versions. They should not be cited or distributed as the published version of this manuscript. BMJ Open is an open access journal and the full, final, typeset and author-corrected version of record of the manuscript is available on our site with no access controls, subscription charges or pay-per-view fees (http://bmjopen.bmj.com). If you have any questions on BMJ Open’s open peer review process please email [email protected] http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ on September 29, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. BMJ Open BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021. Downloaded from Impact of the Tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns Journal: BMJ Open ManuscriptFor ID peerbmjopen-2021-050346 review only Article Type: Original research Date Submitted by the 17-Feb-2021 Author: Complete List of Authors: Laydon, Daniel; Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel-Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Mishra, Swapnil ; Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel-Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Hinsley, Wes; Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel-Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Samartsidis, Pantelis; University of Cambridge, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health Flaxman, Seth; Imperial College London, Department of Mathematics and Data Science Institute http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ Gandy, Axel; Imperial College London, Department of Mathematics Ferguson, Neil; Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel-Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Bhatt, Samir; Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel-Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics COVID-19, EPIDEMIOLOGY, INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Epidemiology < Keywords: INFECTIOUS DISEASES on September 29, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml Page 1 of 22 BMJ Open 1 2 3 4 BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021. Downloaded from 5 6 7 8 9 I, the Submitting Author has the right to grant and does grant on behalf of all authors of the Work (as defined 10 in the below author licence), an exclusive licence and/or a non-exclusive licence for contributions from authors 11 who are: i) UK Crown employees; ii) where BMJ has agreed a CC-BY licence shall apply, and/or iii) in accordance 12 with the terms applicable for US Federal Government officers or employees acting as part of their official 13 duties; on a worldwide, perpetual, irrevocable, royalty-free basis to BMJ Publishing Group Ltd (“BMJ”) its 14 licensees and where the relevant Journal is co-owned by BMJ to the co-owners of the Journal, to publish the 15 Work in this journal and any other BMJ products and to exploit all rights, as set out in our licence. 16 17 The Submitting Author accepts and understands that any supply made under these terms is made by BMJ to 18 the Submitting Author Forunless you peer are acting as review an employee on behalf only of your employer or a postgraduate 19 student of an affiliated institution which is paying any applicable article publishing charge (“APC”) for Open 20 Access articles. Where the Submitting Author wishes to make the Work available on an Open Access basis (and 21 intends to pay the relevant APC), the terms of reuse of such Open Access shall be governed by a Creative 22 Commons licence – details of these licences and which Creative Commons licence will apply to this Work are set 23 out in our licence referred to above. 24 25 Other than as permitted in any relevant BMJ Author’s Self Archiving Policies, I confirm this Work has not been 26 accepted for publication elsewhere, is not being considered for publication elsewhere and does not duplicate 27 material already published. I confirm all authors consent to publication of this Work and authorise the granting 28 of this licence. 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 on September 29, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml BMJ Open Page 2 of 22 1 2 3 4 1 Impact of the Tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021. Downloaded from 5 6 7 2 the UK between the first and second national lockdowns 8 9 3 10 11 1,* 1 1 2 12 4 Daniel J Laydon , Swapnil Mishra , Wes R Hinsley , Pantelis Samartsidis , Seth 13 14 5 Flaxman3, Axel Gandy3, Neil M Ferguson1, Samir Bhatt1 15 16 6 17 18 7 1 Department of InfectiousFor Disease peer Epidemiology, review MRC Centre for Global only Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel- 19 20 8 Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, School of Public Health, Norfolk Place, 21 9 London, W2 1PG 22 23 10 2 MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge Biomedical 24 25 11 Campus, CB2 0SR, United Kingdom 26 3 27 12 Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ 28 * 29 13 Corresponding Author: [email protected]; 30 31 14 32 33 34 15 Abstract 35 36 http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ 37 16 Objective: Measure the effects of the Tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the 38 39 17 UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the 40 41 18 B.1.1.7 variant of concern. 42 43 44 19 Design: Modelling study combining estimates of the real-time reproduction number Rt on September 29, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. 45 46 47 20 (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data 48 49 21 on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model 50 51 22 with latent factors using these quantities, to account for broader national trends in 52 53 23 addition to subnational effects from Tiers. 54 55 56 24 Setting: The UK at Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) level. 57 58 59 60 1 For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml Page 3 of 22 BMJ Open 1 2 3 25 Primary and secondary outcome measures: Reduction in real-time reproduction 4 BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021. Downloaded from 5 6 26 number Rt. 7 8 9 27 Results: Nationally, transmission increased between July and late September, 10 11 28 regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier 12 13 29 system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 14 15 30 (0.86 – 1.42) two weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to 16 17 18 31 Tiers. Tier 1 had negligibleFor peer effects. Tiers review 2 and 3 respectively only reduced transmission by 19 20 32 6% (5%-7%) and 23% (21%-25%). 93% of LTLAs would have begun to suppress their 21 22 33 epidemics if every LTLA had gone into Tier 3 by the second national lockdown, 23 24 25 34 whereas only 29% did so in reality. 26 27 28 35 Conclusions: The relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that 29 30 36 interventions at least as stringent as Tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, 31 32 37 especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination 33 34 35 38 is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed. 36 http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ 37 39 38 39 40 41 40 Strengths and limitations of this study 42 43 44 41 First study to measure effects of UK Tier system for SARS-CoV-2 control at on September 29, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. 45 46 42 national and regional level. 47 48 49 43 Model makes minimal assumptions and is primarily data driven. 50 51 44 Insufficient statistical power to estimate effects of individual interventions that 52 53 45 comprise Tiers, or their interaction. 54 55 56 46 Estimates show that Tiers 1 and 2 are insufficient to suppress transmission, at 57 58 47 least until widespread population immunity has amassed. Emergence of more 59 60 48 transmissible variants of concern unfortunately supports this conclusion. 2 For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml BMJ Open Page 4 of 22 1 2 3 4 49 Introduction BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Report 29: the Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on All-Cause Attendances to Emergency Departments in Two Large London Hospitals: an Observational Study
    1 July 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 response team Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study Michaela A C Vollmer, Sreejith Radhakrishnan, Mara D Kont, Seth Flaxman, Sam Bhatt, Ceire Costelloe, Kate Honeyford, Paul Aylin, Graham Cooke, Julian Redhead, Alison Sanders, Peter J White, Neil Ferguson, Katharina Hauck, Shevanthi Nayagam, Pablo N Perez-Guzman WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) Division of Digestive Diseases, Department of Metabolism Digestion and Reproduction Imperial College London Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust Imperial College London Department of Primary Care and Public Health Global Digital Health Unit Correspondence: [email protected] SUGGESTED CITATION Michaela A C Vollmer, Sreejith Radhakrishnan, Mara D Kont et al. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all- cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study. Imperial College London (30-05-2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/80295. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/80295 Page 1 of 22 1 July 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 response team Summary The health care system in England has been highly affected by the surge in demand due to patients afflicted by COVID-19. Yet the impact of the pandemic on the care seeking behaviour of patients and thus on Emergency department (ED) services is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.
    [Show full text]
  • One Year of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Annual Report – Executive Summary December 2020
    One year of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Annual report – Executive Summary December 2020 The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (the Jameel Institute) was launched in October 2019 with the mission to combat disease threats worldwide. Bringing together researchers working in global health within Imperial College’s School of Public Health and partnering with governments and international institutions, the Jameel Institute advances methods and real-world application of data analytics to identify and support effective actions and investment into population health globally. Shortly after our Institute was launched, the world faced an unprecedented pandemic which catapulted the Jameel Institute into the global spotlight. We are delighted to share the work of the Institute in our annual report and have summarised our achievements and work to date below. Our research The Jameel Institute has three main research themes: responding to health emergencies, strengthening health systems and building partnership and capacity. Responding to health emergencies In its first year, the Jameel Institute has concentrated on the emergency response to COVID-19. We recognised the seriousness of the crisis in mid-January 2020 when a small, rapidly convened team, developed models with data from cases in China to help forecast the potential impact on the UK and other countries. By the time the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared SARS-CoV-2 a global pandemic in March 2020, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team was established, under the umbrella of the Jameel Institute. By November 2020, the team had produced 39 reports, eight tools and 21 publications.
    [Show full text]
  • The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression
    26 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression Patrick GT Walker*, Charles Whittaker*, Oliver Watson, Marc Baguelin, Kylie E C Ainslie, Sangeeta Bhatia, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Christl A Donnelly, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Seth Flaxman, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Katharina Hauck, David Haw, Sarah Hayes, Wes Hinsley, Natsuko Imai, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Swapnil Mishra, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Lucy C Okell, Steven Riley, Hayley Thompson, Juliette Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela Vollmer, Caroline Walters, Hao Wei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Neil M Ferguson1, Azra C Ghani1 On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Imperial College London *Contributed equally Correspondence: [email protected], [email protected] SUGGESTED CITATION Patrick GT Walker, Charles Whittaker, Oliver Watson et al. The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London (2020) doi: DOI: Page 1 of 19 26 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Summary The world faces a severe and acute public health emergency due to the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. How individual countries respond in the coming weeks will be critical in influencing the trajectory of national epidemics.
    [Show full text]
  • Real-Time Analysis of COVID-19 – Epidemiology, Statistics and Modelling in Action
    Real-time analysis of COVID-19 – epidemiology, statistics and modelling in action Christl Donnelly Department of Statistics University of Oxford WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Imperial College London 2001 Pandemic 2009 Influenza 1996 FMD in the UK 2003 BSE/vCJD MERS in the UK SARS in Saudi in Hong Kong 2013/4 Arabia Ebola in DRC 2018… 2016 2020… 2014/6 Zika Ebola in West COVID-19 Africa What do you most want to know? • What are the symptoms? Characterise cases • How many cases are there? Estimate cases in source from exportations • How many cases might there Estimate epidemic growth be? • How serious is the disease? Estimate the CFR • If someone is exposed to Estimate the incubation period distribution infection, how long till they know djkfrdjksfljdfj jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj if they are free of infection? • How might we control the Consider options, including isolation, quarantine, disease? vaccination, as data allow. Relevant paper: Cori A., Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, et al. Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B372, 20160371, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2016.0371 Real-time analyses As of 30 June 2020: Temporal distributions of (b) the number of Coronavirus studies, (c) the SARS, MERS and Covid-19 studies. from Haghani & Bliemer https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.126813v1.full
    [Show full text]
  • A Pre-Registered Short-Term Forecasting Study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland During the Second Wave ✉ J
    ARTICLE https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0 OPEN A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave ✉ J. Bracher 1,2 , D. Wolffram 1,2, J. Deuschel 1, K. Görgen 1, J. L. Ketterer 1, A. Ullrich 3, S. Abbott4, M. V. Barbarossa5, D. Bertsimas6, S. Bhatia 7, M. Bodych 8, N. I. Bosse 4, J. P. Burgard 9, L. Castro 10, G. Fairchild 10, J. Fuhrmann5,11, S. Funk 4, K. Gogolewski 12,Q.Gu 13, S. Heyder 14, T. Hotz14, Y. Kheifetz15, H. Kirsten 15, T. Krueger8, E. Krymova 16,M.L.Li 17, J. H. Meinke 11, I. J. Michaud 18, K. Niedzielewski 19,T.Ożański 8, F. Rakowski19, M. Scholz 15, S. Soni 6, A. Srivastava 20, 1234567890():,; ✉ J. Zieliński 19, D. Zou13, T. Gneiting2,21, M. Schienle 1 & List of Contributors by Team* Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pan- demic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non- pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided prob- abilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report of the Jameel Institute
    Annual report of the Jameel Institute https://www.imperial.ac.uk/jameel-institute/ 2020 Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) The year since we launched the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (also known as the Jameel Institute) has been incredible. We are so fortunate to have created this timely and powerful new partnership. Imperial College London combined its amazing academic strength with a world-leading foundation, Community Jameel, just before the world was so quickly turned upside down by an emergency of epic proportions. The global leadership the Jameel Institute has shown was driven by its tireless leaders: Professor Neil Ferguson and Dr Katherina Hauck, and their incredible team members. They have worked night and day to advance understanding of the pandemic and provide rational, evidence-based advice to governments globally. Their scientific papers have changed the world. Speed is critical in the beginning of a pandemic. Their paper on the 17th of January analysing the three cases outside of China was the clarion call for the world to recognise that this was “substantial human-to-human transmission”. They have put out 39 more reports, numerous sources of information, maps to drive policy and planning, and a highly popular online course with Coursera: “Let’s Talk about COVID-19”. The Jameel Institute’s work on chronic and other infectious diseases, our community and government engagement on education and policy, and our training of the next generation of public health leaders, is proceeding at pace despite the disruption to ways of working.
    [Show full text]
  • Covid-19 Comprehensive Explainer: Science, Response, Lessons &
    Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God By Dr Mamnun Khan www.beingbritishmuslims.com 16 April 2020 In the name of God the Most Gracious, Most Merciful Being British Muslims is a project that seeks to: (1) produce insights into how faith can become more meaningful and relevant in today’s world; and (2) inform public debate and understanding of the multifarious crossroads, imaginings and challenges currently making and remaking British Muslim identity. This is an independent, non-partisan, non-sectarian and non-affiliated project based on the book Being British Muslims: Beyond Ethnocentric Religion and Identity Politics, www.beingbritishmuslims.com, @UKMuslims2050. This paper is not funded by any person, group or organisation. This paper is dedicated to my father Haji Faizur Rahman Khan (1944-2019). I pray that God accepts this work, counts it among the good deeds of my father, who taught me morals, and makes it a source of benefit for those who read it. I am very grateful to Shaykh Mohammed Nizami (www.nizami.co.uk) and Shaykh Arnold Yasin Mol (Leiden University, https://leidenuniv.academia.edu/ArnoldMol and the Institute for the Revival of Traditional Islamic Sciences (IRTIS) https://www.irtis.org.uk/) for their feedback on the paper before publication. All errors, omissions, oversights are mine and for any feedback please contact me through the web form on the website above or directly at [email protected]. I have an undergraduate degree in Biochemistry from Imperial College London, and a PhD in Molecular Immunology from Cambridge University. In recent years, I have advised a number of UK organisations on projects and strategy, as well as founding grassroots initiatives.
    [Show full text]
  • Considerations for Planning COVID-19 Case Management Services in Humanitarian Responses
    * THIS PAPER HAS NOT YET BEEN PEER-REVIEWED * Considerations for planning COVID-19 case management services in humanitarian responses Sylvia Garry1, Nada Abdelmagid1, Louisa Baxter2, Natalie Roberts3, Olivier le Polain de Waroux1,4, Sharif Ismail5, Ruwan Ratnayake1, Caroline Favas1, Elizabeth Lewis1, Francesco Checchi1 1 Health in Humanitarian Crises Centre, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, WC1E 7HT 2 Save the Children UK, 1 St John’s Ln, Farringdon, London, EC1M 4AR 3 Centre de réflexion sur l’action et les savoirs humanitaires (CRASH), Fondation MSF (Médecins Sans Frontières), 13-34 avenue Jean Jaurès, 75019 Paris 4 UK Public Health Rapid Support Team (UK-PHRST), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, WC1E 7HT 5 Department of Global Health and Development, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, WC1E 7HT Keywords COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus, Africa, low-income, humanitarian, crisis, fragile, case management, treatment * THIS PAPER HAS NOT YET BEEN PEER-REVIEWED * Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to cause high morbidity and mortality in crisis-affected populations. Providing case management for COVID-19 cases in crisis settings will likely entail complex trade-offs between offering services of clinical benefit and minimising risks of nosocomial infection, while allocating resources appropriately and safeguarding other essential services. This paper outlines considerations for humanitarian actors who may be planning COVID-19 case management services. We explore case management options at the patient level (diagnosis, management, location and level of treatment) and measures to reduce nosocomial transmission (cohorting patients, protecting healthcare workers).
    [Show full text]
  • REACT-1 Round 10 Report: Level Prevalence of SARS-Cov-2 Swab-Positivity in England During Third National Lockdown in March 2021
    medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.08.21255100; this version posted April 15, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . REACT-1 round 10 report: Level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in England during third national lockdown in March 2021 Steven Riley1,2,*, Oliver Eales1,2, David Haw1,2, Caroline E. Walters1,2, Haowei Wang1,2, Kylie E. C. Ainslie1,2,12, Christina Atchison1, Claudio Fronterre3, Peter J. Diggle3, Deborah Ashby1, Christl A. Donnelly1,2,4, Graham Cooke5,6,7, Wendy Barclay5, Helen Ward1,6,7, Ara Darzi6,7,8, Paul Elliott1,6,7,9,10,11 * 1 School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK 2 MRC Centre for Global infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, UK 3 CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, UK and Health Data Research, UK 4 Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, UK 5 Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, UK 6 Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, UK 7 National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, UK 8 Institute of Global Health Innovation at Imperial College London, UK 9 MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK 10 Health Data Research (HDR) UK London at Imperial College 11 UK Dementia Research Institute at Imperial College 12 Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands *Corresponding authors: Steven Riley and Paul Elliott, [email protected], [email protected], School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.
    [Show full text]
  • Celebrating Your Support
    Celebrating your support Annual Fundraising Report – A Annual Fundraising Report 2018–19 The Sir Michael Uren Biomedical Engineering Research Hub at Imperial’s White City Campus is due to open in . Work at the Hub will combine the latest medical research and engineering to improve the treatment and diagnosis of diverse medical conditions, from developing new ways to detect cancer, to musculoskeletal technology and even bionic limbs. The Hub was made possible through a million donation from the late Sir Michael Uren and his Foundation. Thank you for giving to Imperial College London. On behalf of everyone at Imperial, thank you for your support this year. Your contributions are vital to advancing the College’s mission to achieve excellence in research and education for the benefit of society, and it is thanks to you that we continue to push the boundaries of what a world class university can achieve. In this report are just a few examples of how your gifts are making a difference to both the College and our wider community. Every gift to Imperial, no matter how large or small, has an impact. Your support enables us to provide opportunities to the most talented and ambitious students, regardless of their background or financial situation. Your support broadens horizons, enabling students to take up summer placements or pursue extra-curricular activities, honing their teamwork and leadership skills through sport, music, or innovation programmes. Your support advances ground-breaking research, helping us draw teams of exceptional people together to tackle important challenges faced by people both at home and abroad.
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19: Researchers Model Likely Impact of Public Health Measures 18 March 2020, by Dr Sabine L
    COVID-19: Researchers model likely impact of public health measures 18 March 2020, by Dr Sabine L. Van Elsland, Ryan O'hare The findings are published in the 9th report from the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London. Professor Neil Ferguson, head of the MRC GIDA team and director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), said: "The world is facing the most serious public health crisis in generations. Here we provide concrete estimates of the scale of the threat countries now face. "We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will Flattening the curve: The report highlights suppression not be enough to prevent health systems being strategy scenarios for the UK showing intensive care unit overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially (ICU) bed requirements. The black line shows the unmitigated epidemic. Green shows a suppression disruptive interventions will therefore be required to strategy incorporating closure of schools and suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such universities, case isolation and population-wide social measures—most notably, large scale social distancing beginning in late March 2020. The orange line distancing—will need to be in place for many shows a containment strategy incorporating case months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes isolation, household quarantine and population-wide available." social distancing. The red line is the estimated surge ICU bed capacity in GB.
    [Show full text]
  • Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (Npis) to Reduce COVID- 19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand
    16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker, Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani. On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Imperial College London Correspondence: [email protected] Summary The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.
    [Show full text]