DOCSLIB.ORG

Covid-19 Comprehensive Explainer: Science, Response, Lessons &

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Covid-19 Comprehensive Explainer: Science, Response, Lessons & Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God By Dr Mamnun Khan www.beingbritishmuslims.com 16 April 2020 In the name of God the Most Gracious, Most Merciful Being British Muslims is a project that seeks to: (1) produce insights into how faith can become more meaningful and relevant in today’s world; and (2) inform public debate and understanding of the multifarious crossroads, imaginings and challenges currently making and remaking British Muslim identity. This is an independent, non-partisan, non-sectarian and non-affiliated project based on the book Being British Muslims: Beyond Ethnocentric Religion and Identity Politics, www.beingbritishmuslims.com, @UKMuslims2050. This paper is not funded by any person, group or organisation. This paper is dedicated to my father Haji Faizur Rahman Khan (1944-2019). I pray that God accepts this work, counts it among the good deeds of my father, who taught me morals, and makes it a source of benefit for those who read it. I am very grateful to Shaykh Mohammed Nizami (www.nizami.co.uk) and Shaykh Arnold Yasin Mol (Leiden University, https://leidenuniv.academia.edu/ArnoldMol and the Institute for the Revival of Traditional Islamic Sciences (IRTIS) https://www.irtis.org.uk/) for their feedback on the paper before publication. All errors, omissions, oversights are mine and for any feedback please contact me through the web form on the website above or directly at [email protected]. I have an undergraduate degree in Biochemistry from Imperial College London, and a PhD in Molecular Immunology from Cambridge University. In recent years, I have advised a number of UK organisations on projects and strategy, as well as founding grassroots initiatives. My passion is to bring critical insight and thought leadership in advocating contextualised Islam and making the British Muslim experience God- centred. In my professional capacity I have a background in corporate management at a FTSE 100 company and over 14 years of experience in business improvement, management and strategy. Picture of virus on the front page is taken from the BBC. © Mamnunur Rahman Khan. All rights reserved. Publication date 16 April 2020. Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God, Dr Mamnun Khan, 16 April 2020 Contents 1. Introduction and purpose of paper ....................................................................................................... 5 2. Facts about Covid-19 (also called “SARS-CoV-2” / “2019-nCoV” / “Coronavirus”) ............................... 7 Virus strain ................................................................................................................................................. 7 SARS-CoV-2: structure, mechanism and mutation .................................................................................... 7 Disease pathology of Covid-19 ................................................................................................................ 11 Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 .................................................................................................................... 14 Treatments to Covid-19 ........................................................................................................................... 15 Testing ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 Immune response .................................................................................................................................... 20 Long term immunity ................................................................................................................................ 21 Pandemics in comparison ........................................................................................................................ 23 3. The UK’s strategy for public health emergency .................................................................................. 25 Do nothing – was never an option .......................................................................................................... 25 Do something – required a great balancing act of four competing realities .......................................... 25 Epidemiological modelling....................................................................................................................... 26 Failures in the UK’s response to date ...................................................................................................... 31 Making sense of death numbers and risk................................................................................................ 32 4. Deep systemic shock to society from Covid-19 ................................................................................... 34 Public health emergency – the UK Government’s response ................................................................... 34 Managing the economic downturn ......................................................................................................... 37 Collateral damage to society ................................................................................................................... 39 Differential impact on people.................................................................................................................. 42 Good will support from the rest of society ............................................................................................. 43 5. Exit scenarios and implications for global policy ................................................................................. 44 Relaxing lockdown measures .................................................................................................................. 44 Exit scenario will be a mix of different approaches................................................................................. 45 6. Lessons of Covid-19 as a “great awakener” of modern society and the basis for believers to argue for and do things differently in an ever-increasingly complex world ............................................................... 47 Covid-19 symbolism and imaginings ....................................................................................................... 47 Will the changes stick? Yes and no .......................................................................................................... 48 Meta-lesson for new directions – pertaining to “what our hands reap” and “corruption in the land” . 49 Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God, Dr Mamnun Khan, 16 April 2020 Wider reflections ..................................................................................................................................... 52 7. Advice on spending time at home and isolation with children off school .......................................... 54 8. Early responses in Muslim communities ............................................................................................. 56 On the question of mosque closure ........................................................................................................ 56 Charity responses .................................................................................................................................... 57 Disinformation and hysteria .................................................................................................................... 57 9. The sound basis of the believer’s muhasbah paradigm negates fatalism ........................................... 59 Fatalism is the opposite of muhasabah ................................................................................................... 59 God’s ordered system of nature and phenomena .................................................................................. 61 Calamity and loss aren’t necessarily punishments .................................................................................. 62 Re-introducing fitn (test) with a “systems framework” .......................................................................... 66 10. God in causation – readjusting our relationship with the natural world ........................................ 69 Between Ghazali and Ibn Rushd .............................................................................................................. 69 Modelling cause and effect ..................................................................................................................... 72 11. Ending du’a ...................................................................................................................................... 74 Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God, Dr Mamnun Khan, 16 April 2020 Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God www.beingbritishmuslims.com By Dr Mamnun Khan 16 April 2020 1. Introduction and purpose of paper We are living in unprecedented times. Never since World War Two (when most of us weren’t around) have we seen the level of shutdown to society, and social, cultural and economic life. Yet this is what we’re now living through, at least for the next few months. Unfortunately, it will not end at the end of this period. Much of the deep systemic shock that has entered into society locally and globally in response to the public health emergency will likely remain with us for some time to come. The role of Government has drastically expanded,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • An Affront to Dignity, Inclusion and Equality: Coronavirus and the Impact of Law, Policy and Practice on People with Disabilities in the United Kingdom
    Report Recommendations - An Affront to Dignity, Inclusion and Equality: Coronavirus and the impact of law, policy and practice on people with disabilities in the United Kingdom In the following areas our Report urges the government to: On reforming the Coronavirus Act 2020, disability rights and mitigating effects of the pandemic 1. Undertake an immediate review of legislation passed during the coronavirus crisis and communication thereof. In doing so, we ask that the government change this legislation and all related policymaking to meet its duties under the Equality Act 2010, and commitments to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, and take steps to avoid or mitigate any potential disadvantage for disabled people. 2. Implement recommendations made by the 2016 House of Lords Select Committee Report on the Equality Act 2010 and Disability, and by the Women and Equalities Committee, on enhancing the enforcement of the Equality Act 2010, both by removing deterrents to individuals bringing disability discrimination cases; and by measures which embed the monitoring and enforcement of relevant duties in the work of regulatory and inspection bodies. 3. Undertake an inquiry on the impact of COVID-19 on disabled people to examine why this group has carried such a heavy burden for the pandemic, including the scale of Covid-19 related deaths. 4. Establish a Covid-19 Disability Inclusive Response and Recovery Group, of experts by experience with disabilities and Disabled People’s Organisations, to ensure disabled people are central to decision-making on the economic and social recovery to the pandemic and guidance. 5.
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19 and the Use and Scrutiny of Emergency Powers
    HOUSE OF LORDS Select Committee on the Constitution 3rd Report of Session 2021–22 COVID-19 and the use and scrutiny of emergency powers Ordered to be printed 2 June 2021 and published 10 June 2021 Published by the Authority of the House of Lords HL Paper 15 Select Committee on the Constitution The Constitution Committee is appointed by the House of Lords in each session “to examine the constitutional implications of public bills coming before the House; and to keep under review the operation of the constitution and constitutional aspects of devolution.” Membership The Members of the Constitution Committee are: Baroness Corston Baroness Fookes Lord Sherbourne of Didsbury Baroness Doocey Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield Baroness Suttie Baroness Drake Lord Hope of Craighead Baroness Taylor of Bolton (Chair) Lord Dunlop Lord Howarth of Newport Lord Faulks Lord Howell of Guildford Declarations of interests A full list of Members’ interests can be found in the Register of Lords’ Interests: https://members.parliament.uk/members/lords/interests/register-of-lords-interests/ Publications All publications of the committee are available at: https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/172/constitution-committee/ Parliament Live Live coverage of debates and public sessions of the committee’s meetings are available at: http://www.parliamentlive.tv Further information Further information about the House of Lords and its committees, including guidance to witnesses, details of current inquiries and forthcoming meetings is available at: http://www.parliament.uk/business/lords Committee staff The current staff of the committee are Michael Torrance (Clerk), Ava Mayer (Policy Analyst) and Dan Weedon (Committee Assistant).
    [Show full text]
  • BMJ Open Is Committed to Open Peer Review. As Part of This Commitment We Make the Peer Review History of Every Article We Publish Publicly Available
    BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021. Downloaded from BMJ Open is committed to open peer review. As part of this commitment we make the peer review history of every article we publish publicly available. When an article is published we post the peer reviewers’ comments and the authors’ responses online. We also post the versions of the paper that were used during peer review. These are the versions that the peer review comments apply to. The versions of the paper that follow are the versions that were submitted during the peer review process. They are not the versions of record or the final published versions. They should not be cited or distributed as the published version of this manuscript. BMJ Open is an open access journal and the full, final, typeset and author-corrected version of record of the manuscript is available on our site with no access controls, subscription charges or pay-per-view fees (http://bmjopen.bmj.com). If you have any questions on BMJ Open’s open peer review process please email [email protected] http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ on September 29, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. BMJ Open BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 on 22 April 2021. Downloaded from Impact of the Tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns Journal: BMJ Open ManuscriptFor ID peerbmjopen-2021-050346 review only Article Type: Original research Date Submitted by the 17-Feb-2021 Author: Complete List of Authors: Laydon, Daniel; Imperial
    [Show full text]
  • Report 29: the Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on All-Cause Attendances to Emergency Departments in Two Large London Hospitals: an Observational Study
    1 July 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 response team Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study Michaela A C Vollmer, Sreejith Radhakrishnan, Mara D Kont, Seth Flaxman, Sam Bhatt, Ceire Costelloe, Kate Honeyford, Paul Aylin, Graham Cooke, Julian Redhead, Alison Sanders, Peter J White, Neil Ferguson, Katharina Hauck, Shevanthi Nayagam, Pablo N Perez-Guzman WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) Division of Digestive Diseases, Department of Metabolism Digestion and Reproduction Imperial College London Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust Imperial College London Department of Primary Care and Public Health Global Digital Health Unit Correspondence: [email protected] SUGGESTED CITATION Michaela A C Vollmer, Sreejith Radhakrishnan, Mara D Kont et al. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all- cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study. Imperial College London (30-05-2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/80295. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/80295 Page 1 of 22 1 July 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 response team Summary The health care system in England has been highly affected by the surge in demand due to patients afflicted by COVID-19. Yet the impact of the pandemic on the care seeking behaviour of patients and thus on Emergency department (ED) services is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19: Implementation of Easements
    COVID-19: Implementation of Easements This resource has been prepared for tri.x customers. Its purpose is to support practitioners and managers on the frontline when the local authority has decided to implement some or all of the easements to the Care Act 2014 set out in sections 14 and 15 of the Coronavirus Act 2020. It provides information about carrying out revised adult care and support duties and functions, and which procedures this is likely to have an impact upon. Use the Contents list on the following page to find the information you are looking for. Updated 13.10.20 NOTE: If your local authority is managing to sustain all duties under the Care Act this guidance does not apply. Key decision makers should see Care Act easements: guidance for local authorities for guidance on deciding whether/when to apply the easements. Contents 1. Making Decisions-key section to be read by all 2. General Responsibilities of the Care Act 3. Safeguarding and Risk Assessment 4. Referrals and Assessment 5. Eligibility 6. Meeting Needs 7. Review/Revision of Plans 8. Transition 9. Financial Assessment & Charging 10. NHS Continuing Healthcare 11. Hospital Discharge 12. Continuity of Care Arrangements 13. Protecting Moveable Property and Belongings 14. End of Life 15. No Recourse to Public Funds 16. AHMP Appendix 1: Government Guidance Links 1. Making Decisions Local authorities will still be expected to do as much as they can to comply with their powers to meet needs during any period of easement and the duty of care they have towards an individual’s risk of serious neglect or harm still remains.
    [Show full text]
  • One Year of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Annual Report – Executive Summary December 2020
    One year of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Annual report – Executive Summary December 2020 The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (the Jameel Institute) was launched in October 2019 with the mission to combat disease threats worldwide. Bringing together researchers working in global health within Imperial College’s School of Public Health and partnering with governments and international institutions, the Jameel Institute advances methods and real-world application of data analytics to identify and support effective actions and investment into population health globally. Shortly after our Institute was launched, the world faced an unprecedented pandemic which catapulted the Jameel Institute into the global spotlight. We are delighted to share the work of the Institute in our annual report and have summarised our achievements and work to date below. Our research The Jameel Institute has three main research themes: responding to health emergencies, strengthening health systems and building partnership and capacity. Responding to health emergencies In its first year, the Jameel Institute has concentrated on the emergency response to COVID-19. We recognised the seriousness of the crisis in mid-January 2020 when a small, rapidly convened team, developed models with data from cases in China to help forecast the potential impact on the UK and other countries. By the time the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared SARS-CoV-2 a global pandemic in March 2020, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team was established, under the umbrella of the Jameel Institute. By November 2020, the team had produced 39 reports, eight tools and 21 publications.
    [Show full text]
  • William Wragg MP Chairman Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee House of Commons 26 August 2020
    Edward Argar MP Minister of State for Health 39 Victoria Street London SW1H 0EU 020 7210 4850 William Wragg MP Chairman Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee House of Commons 26 August 2020 Dear William, Thank you for your letter of 16 July with some follow-up questions, further to the appearance of the Paymaster General and myself, along with senior officials from the Department of Health and Social Care and the Cabinet Office before your committee on 14 July. May I apologise for the delay in responding to your letter, however, there were a number of detailed questions within it, and we have used the time to give you answers which are as detailed as possible. I have provided a response to your further points below, covering the matters for which my Department are responsible. I understand The Paymaster General has replied separately. Ministerial responsibilities I know that Paymaster General has responded to your question about ministerial responsibilities across government as a whole. In addition to the strategic direction provided by the Secretary of State, I have attached a list of DHSC ministers’ Covid and non-Covid ministerial responsibilities at Annex A. Exercise Cygnus Question 103 was about Exercise Cygnus which as the committee will be aware was conducted in 2016, with its findings circulated to relevant Ministers in 2017. The release of the Exercise Cygnus report is currently under review and Ministers will be making a decision shortly – for this reason, I am not currently able to share a copy with the committee. I can, however, confirm that Government accepted the lessons identified by Exercise Cygnus which, along with learning from previous pandemics, infectious disease outbreaks and incidents, and other preparedness exercises, continue to inform work undertaken by Government and a range of stakeholders, including expert advisory groups and local emergency planners.
    [Show full text]
  • The Impact of the Pandemic on Disabled People
    Prynhawn da - Good afternoon!1 The impact of the pandemic on disabled people So much more than Covid-19 Ann N.James 2 Crossing the Rubicon(1) ➢ 30th January 2020 WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern ➢ 3rd March 2020 Covid Plan published by UK Government and Devolved adminsitrations (1) Increasingly apparent – UK Nations are not equipped for a pandemic ➢ Weak Public Health Services - Decimated by austerity and organisational changes - Essential Equipement for a Respiratory Virus not available - Depleted NHS workforce - Fragmented Social Care workforce 3 Crossing the Rubicon(2) “We prepared for the wrong pandemic”(2) Jeremy Hunt Former Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, UK. 4 Crossing the Rubicon(3) Welsh Government in lockstep with UK Government Divergence limited by devolution settlement and geography Consequently, Covid-19 impact similar across the nations of the UK Highest death rates per 100,000 5 Crossing the Rubicon(4) UK Strategy one of containment and delay not suppression Strategy exacerbated by indecisiveness Results in catastrophic loss of life and illness Death rates from SE Asia, New Zealand and Australia tell us this was not inevitable 6 Legislating for Coronavirus Coronavirus Act 2020 receives Royal Assent on the 25th March Four nations suspend a raft of legilslative duties and powers Described as the ‘most draconian legislation in peace time’(3) In relation to social care, it allows for the relaxing of duties and powers relating to assessment, and meeting needs for care and
    [Show full text]
  • The Time the Children Didn't Go to School
    THE TIME THE CHILDREN DIDN’T GO TO SCHOOL ANNABELLE HAYES FOREWORD ......................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................. 4 APRIL 2020 ............................................................ 5 MAY, 2020 ............................................................ 33 JUNE, 2020 .......................................................... 63 JULY, 2020 ......................................................... 102 AUGUST, 2020 .................................................... 110 SEPTEMBER, 2020 ............................................ 114 OCTOBER, 2020 ............................................... 129 NOVEMBER, 2020 ........................................... 152 DECEMBER, 2020 ............................................ 166 JANUARY, 2021 ................................................. 176 FEBRUARY, 2021 .............................................. 202 MARCH, 2021 .................................................... 223 AFTERWORD ................................................... 230 2 FOREWORD In March 2020, schools, nurseries and colleges in the United Kingdom were shut down in response to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. By 20 March, all schools in the UK had closed to all children except those of key workers and children considered vulnerable. After a month of numbness at having all the children home, I started these diaries to document the unprecedented time when the children didn’t go to school. When the world stopped, the children didn’t – this records their
    [Show full text]
  • Written Evidence from S.J. Groenewegen BEM (RCC20)
    Written evidence from S.J. Groenewegen BEM (RCC20) Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee Responding to Covid-19 and the Coronavirus Act 2020 inquiry I am providing evidence as a private citizen who is currently self-employed as a freelance author, but who has 25 years of experience in the public administration arena. I was employed as a Civil Servant from January 2005 to September 2019, specifically at the National Crime Squad of England and Wales, the Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA), the National Crime Agency (NCA), and HM Prison and Probation Service (England and Wales). I worked in a variety of roles at practitioner and middle management levels. Prior to migrating to the UK in 2004, I worked in the Australian public service as a government policy officer in the areas of occupational health and safety, and then policing and national security. My concerns about how the UK Government responded stem from my experience in risk assessment and management, national security and public safety as they relate to the criminal justice system. My evidence draws on my broad experience in these fields but does not refer to any specific example. In my capacity as a private citizen, I am responding to the additional questions on the nature of an inquiry and not the original set of questions posed about the legislative framework. What form is the most appropriate for an inquiry into the UK response to the Coronavirus pandemic? Should it be a statutory inquiry and, if not, what form of non- statutory inquiry should be held? Statutory, under the Inquiries Act 2005.
    [Show full text]
  • The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression
    26 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression Patrick GT Walker*, Charles Whittaker*, Oliver Watson, Marc Baguelin, Kylie E C Ainslie, Sangeeta Bhatia, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Christl A Donnelly, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Seth Flaxman, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Katharina Hauck, David Haw, Sarah Hayes, Wes Hinsley, Natsuko Imai, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Swapnil Mishra, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Lucy C Okell, Steven Riley, Hayley Thompson, Juliette Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela Vollmer, Caroline Walters, Hao Wei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Neil M Ferguson1, Azra C Ghani1 On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics Imperial College London *Contributed equally Correspondence: [email protected], [email protected] SUGGESTED CITATION Patrick GT Walker, Charles Whittaker, Oliver Watson et al. The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London (2020) doi: DOI: Page 1 of 19 26 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Summary The world faces a severe and acute public health emergency due to the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. How individual countries respond in the coming weeks will be critical in influencing the trajectory of national epidemics.
    [Show full text]
  • Written Evidence from James Tudor-White1 (RCC 07)
    Written evidence from James Tudor-White1 (RCC 07) Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee Responding to Covid-19 and the Coronavirus Act inquiry SUMMARISATION The Covid-19 pandemic caught the world by surprise in early 2020, and we are still by no means close to having found a solution to the pandemic. While the "situation in Europe is improving, globally it is worsening" (World Health Organisation, 2020, p.1). The Coronavirus Act 2020 was implemented to provide the government with the powers necessary to be able to tackle and handle the pandemic. In April, the government outlined its 5 tests for determining when lockdown measures could and should be lifted. These measures will also play an important determinant on whether to end the temporary provisions of the Coronavirus Act of 2020. The ultimate goal is that Covid-19 will no longer pose a threat to the population of the United Kingdom. Once this is the case, there would be no reason for the government to possess any of the temporary powers it was given as a result of this piece of legislation. Each test the government laid out will have its own advantages and caveats when determining the duration of the lockdown and when the temporary provisions of the Coronavirus Act 2020 can be repealed. The National Health Service being overwhelmed by the coronavirus outbreak was a major concern, and still is a concern for any future planning. This test is a good benchmark for determining whether the United Kingdom could handle another significant outbreak of Covid-19. It is widely accepted that this is likely to be the case, and it should be viewed as a case of when, not if.
    [Show full text]