Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God By Dr Mamnun Khan www.beingbritishmuslims.com 16 April 2020 In the name of God the Most Gracious, Most Merciful Being British Muslims is a project that seeks to: (1) produce insights into how faith can become more meaningful and relevant in today’s world; and (2) inform public debate and understanding of the multifarious crossroads, imaginings and challenges currently making and remaking British Muslim identity. This is an independent, non-partisan, non-sectarian and non-affiliated project based on the book Being British Muslims: Beyond Ethnocentric Religion and Identity Politics, www.beingbritishmuslims.com, @UKMuslims2050. This paper is not funded by any person, group or organisation. This paper is dedicated to my father Haji Faizur Rahman Khan (1944-2019). I pray that God accepts this work, counts it among the good deeds of my father, who taught me morals, and makes it a source of benefit for those who read it. I am very grateful to Shaykh Mohammed Nizami (www.nizami.co.uk) and Shaykh Arnold Yasin Mol (Leiden University, https://leidenuniv.academia.edu/ArnoldMol and the Institute for the Revival of Traditional Islamic Sciences (IRTIS) https://www.irtis.org.uk/) for their feedback on the paper before publication. All errors, omissions, oversights are mine and for any feedback please contact me through the web form on the website above or directly at [email protected]. I have an undergraduate degree in Biochemistry from Imperial College London, and a PhD in Molecular Immunology from Cambridge University. In recent years, I have advised a number of UK organisations on projects and strategy, as well as founding grassroots initiatives. My passion is to bring critical insight and thought leadership in advocating contextualised Islam and making the British Muslim experience God- centred. In my professional capacity I have a background in corporate management at a FTSE 100 company and over 14 years of experience in business improvement, management and strategy. Picture of virus on the front page is taken from the BBC. © Mamnunur Rahman Khan. All rights reserved. Publication date 16 April 2020. Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God, Dr Mamnun Khan, 16 April 2020 Contents 1. Introduction and purpose of paper ....................................................................................................... 5 2. Facts about Covid-19 (also called “SARS-CoV-2” / “2019-nCoV” / “Coronavirus”) ............................... 7 Virus strain ................................................................................................................................................. 7 SARS-CoV-2: structure, mechanism and mutation .................................................................................... 7 Disease pathology of Covid-19 ................................................................................................................ 11 Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 .................................................................................................................... 14 Treatments to Covid-19 ........................................................................................................................... 15 Testing ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 Immune response .................................................................................................................................... 20 Long term immunity ................................................................................................................................ 21 Pandemics in comparison ........................................................................................................................ 23 3. The UK’s strategy for public health emergency .................................................................................. 25 Do nothing – was never an option .......................................................................................................... 25 Do something – required a great balancing act of four competing realities .......................................... 25 Epidemiological modelling....................................................................................................................... 26 Failures in the UK’s response to date ...................................................................................................... 31 Making sense of death numbers and risk................................................................................................ 32 4. Deep systemic shock to society from Covid-19 ................................................................................... 34 Public health emergency – the UK Government’s response ................................................................... 34 Managing the economic downturn ......................................................................................................... 37 Collateral damage to society ................................................................................................................... 39 Differential impact on people.................................................................................................................. 42 Good will support from the rest of society ............................................................................................. 43 5. Exit scenarios and implications for global policy ................................................................................. 44 Relaxing lockdown measures .................................................................................................................. 44 Exit scenario will be a mix of different approaches................................................................................. 45 6. Lessons of Covid-19 as a “great awakener” of modern society and the basis for believers to argue for and do things differently in an ever-increasingly complex world ............................................................... 47 Covid-19 symbolism and imaginings ....................................................................................................... 47 Will the changes stick? Yes and no .......................................................................................................... 48 Meta-lesson for new directions – pertaining to “what our hands reap” and “corruption in the land” . 49 Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God, Dr Mamnun Khan, 16 April 2020 Wider reflections ..................................................................................................................................... 52 7. Advice on spending time at home and isolation with children off school .......................................... 54 8. Early responses in Muslim communities ............................................................................................. 56 On the question of mosque closure ........................................................................................................ 56 Charity responses .................................................................................................................................... 57 Disinformation and hysteria .................................................................................................................... 57 9. The sound basis of the believer’s muhasbah paradigm negates fatalism ........................................... 59 Fatalism is the opposite of muhasabah ................................................................................................... 59 God’s ordered system of nature and phenomena .................................................................................. 61 Calamity and loss aren’t necessarily punishments .................................................................................. 62 Re-introducing fitn (test) with a “systems framework” .......................................................................... 66 10. God in causation – readjusting our relationship with the natural world ........................................ 69 Between Ghazali and Ibn Rushd .............................................................................................................. 69 Modelling cause and effect ..................................................................................................................... 72 11. Ending du’a ...................................................................................................................................... 74 Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God, Dr Mamnun Khan, 16 April 2020 Covid-19 comprehensive explainer: science, response, lessons & God www.beingbritishmuslims.com By Dr Mamnun Khan 16 April 2020 1. Introduction and purpose of paper We are living in unprecedented times. Never since World War Two (when most of us weren’t around) have we seen the level of shutdown to society, and social, cultural and economic life. Yet this is what we’re now living through, at least for the next few months. Unfortunately, it will not end at the end of this period. Much of the deep systemic shock that has entered into society locally and globally in response to the public health emergency will likely remain with us for some time to come. The role of Government has drastically expanded,