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Book QR 2010-3.Indb QUARTERLY REVIEW 2010 Vol. 43 No. 3 © Central Bank of Malta, 2010 Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta VLT 1060 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website http://www.centralbankmalta.org E-mail [email protected] Printed by Gutenberg Press Ltd Gudja Road Tarxien, Malta All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The Quarterly Review is prepared and issued by the Economics and External Relations Division of the Central Bank of Malta. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Bank. The cut-off date for statistical information published in the Economic Survey of this Review is 22 October 2010, except where otherwise indicated. Figures in tables may not add up due to rounding. ISSN 0008-9273 (print) ISSN 1811-1254 (online) CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 ECONOMIC SURVEY 8 1. International Economic Developments and the Euro Area Economy 8 International economic developments Commodities Economic and monetary developments in the euro area Box 1: International Regulatory Reform - Basel III 2. The Maltese Economy 24 Output Box 2: Business and consumer surveys Box 3: Residential property prices The labour market Prices Costs and competitiveness The balance of payments Government finance Box 4: Tourism activity Monetary and financial developments NEWS NOTES 59 STATISTICAL TABLES 65 Box 5: Developments in the Central Bank of Malta’s statistics ABBREVIATIONS EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECB European Central Bank EEA European Economic Area EMU Economic and Monetary Union EONIA Euro OverNight Index Average ERM II exchange rate mechanism II ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks ETC Employment and Training Corporation EU European Union EURIBOR Euro Interbank Offered Rate FI fungibility issue FSB Financial Stability Board FTSE Financial Times Stock Exchange GDP gross domestic product HCI harmonised competitiveness indicators HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund LFS Labour Force Survey LTRO Long-term Refinancing Operation MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MFI monetary financial institution MFSA Malta Financial Services Authority MRO Main Refinancing Operation MSE Malta Stock Exchange NACE statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCB national central bank NPISH Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households NSO National Statistics Office OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OMFI Other Monetary Financial Institution OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries RPI Retail Price Index ULC unit labour costs FOREWORD During the second and third quarters of 2010, the ECB’s Governing Council left official interest rates unchanged. The Council expected price developments to remain moderate over the policy relevant horizon and inflation expectations to stay firmly anchored. Thus, the interest rate on the MROs was kept constant at 1.00% over the entire period. During both quarters, the Governing Council continued to implement non-standard monetary pol- icy measures and, in May, took several steps to address severe tensions observed in some mar- ket segments, notably by intervening in public and private debt markets. Moreover, the Council decided to adopt a fixed rate tender procedure with full allotment in the three-month LTROs to be allotted in May and June and to conduct an additional six-month LTRO with full allotment in May. It also reactivated temporary swap lines with the Federal Reserve System and resumed US dollar liquidity-providing operations. Subsequently, in June, the Council decided that the regular three- month LTROs to be conducted in the third quarter of 2010 would also be carried out as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment. In the same vein, in September, the Council decided to conduct the MROs and the special-term refinancing operations with a maturity of one maintenance period as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary. Furthermore, the Council decided to conduct the three-month LTROs in the fourth quarter as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment, with interest rates fixed at the average rate of the MROs over the life of the respective operation. It also decided that three additional fine-tuning operations would be carried out by the end of the year. As a result of these measures, liquidity provision remained ample. Money market interest rates appeared to have stabilised and then rose slightly, which could be a sign of a return to more nor- mal levels of interbank activity. The Governing Council’s decisions were taken in an environment in which uncertainty still pre- vailed. During the second quarter of 2010, activity in most industrial economies expanded at a faster rate but quarterly growth patterns were uneven, raising concerns that the recovery might lose momentum. In contrast, the principal emerging market economies continued to expand robustly. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures worldwide generally moderated. Euro area economic activity expanded further during the second quarter of 2010. Real GDP increased by 1.9% on a year earlier, compared with 0.8% in the previous quarter. Growth was driven entirely by domestic demand, as private consumption grew at a faster pace, with invento- ries accumulating further and the decline in investment moderating. At the same time, the contri- bution of net exports to growth decreased as imports rose faster than exports. Annual HICP inflation stood at 1.4% in June, unchanged from its March level, reflecting offsetting movements among the major components. However, it picked up again in the following quarter, rising to 1.8% in September. According to the latest ECB staff projections published in September, real GDP growth is expect- ed to remain moderate. Average annual real GDP growth in the euro area is projected to range between 1.4% and 1.8% in 2010 and between 0.5% and 2.3% in 2011. In an environment of CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2010:3 5 moderate growth, inflationary pressures over the forecast horizon are set to remain contained, with the average annual HICP inflation rate forecast to rise to between 1.5% and 1.7% in 2010 and between 1.2% and 2.2% in 2011. Economic activity in Malta also continued to expand in the second quarter. Real GDP increased by 3.9% on a year earlier, supported by a sustained recovery in exports and, to a lesser degree, by higher final domestic demand. Private consumption and investment increased further, although at a slower pace, while government consumption picked up. On the other hand, a sharp reduction in inventories, which include the statistical discrepancy, dampened growth. Business confidence improved during the quarter, but declined during the three months to September. The recovery in output appears to have led to an improvement in labour market conditions. Sur- vey data and administrative records both showed that employment increased during the year to June, with particularly strong growth in part-time employment. At the same time, unemployment eased, with the jobless rate dropping by June, and falling further until August. Inflation increased at a faster pace during the second quarter of 2010, with the annual rate of HICP inflation accelerating to 1.8% in June from 0.6% in March, mainly driven by faster growth in energy prices. Prices of services also grew more rapidly and the decline in unprocessed food prices moderated. The rate went up again over the following three months, reaching 2.4% in September. Developments related to external price competitiveness were mixed. During the second quarter of 2010, labour productivity increased faster than employee compensation. This resulted in a fur- ther fall in unit labour costs, so that the gap between ULC in Malta and in the euro area as a whole narrowed marginally. Similarly, both the nominal and real HCIs continued to fall, also suggesting some competitiveness gains. In the following quarter, however, some of these gains were lost, partly because of developments in domestic inflation. Recent trends in money and credit were maintained during the three-month period to June. Growth in residents’ deposits gathered momentum, with overnight deposits rising rapidly. Credit to residents expanded at a more moderate, though still substantial, pace. Interest rate develop- ments were mixed, however, since whereas average bank deposit rates declined slightly, average lending rates rose. In the domestic financial markets, short-term interest rates generally fell, as did benchmark government bond yields. During the second quarter the general government balance improved as revenue grew faster than expenditure. As a result, during the twelve months to June the cumulative general govern- ment deficit fell to 3.4% of GDP. For the year as a whole, however, the latest official estimates presented in the Budget point to a deficit ratio of 3.9%, which is projected to fall to 2.8% in 2011. The tighter fiscal stance announced in the Budget Speech is timely as consolidation is neces- sary to ensure the sustainability of public finances and contain the rise of public debt, thereby safeguarding credibility and investor confidence. The expenditure-based thrust of the adjust- ment is also welcome as international experience suggests that fiscal consolidation based on the reduction of expenditure tends to have a relatively
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