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2013:3 5 Average Annual Inflation Rate Is Expected to Decline from 2.5% in 2012 to 1.5% in 2013 and to 1.3% in 2014

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2013:3 5 Average Annual Inflation Rate Is Expected to Decline from 2.5% in 2012 to 1.5% in 2013 and to 1.3% in 2014 QUARTERLY REVIEW 2013 Vol. 46 No. 3 © Central Bank of Malta, 2013 Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta VLT 1060 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website http://www.centralbankmalta.org E-mail [email protected] Printed by Gutenberg Press Ltd Gudja Road Tarxien, Malta All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for statistical information published in the Economic Survey of this Review is 11 November 2013, except where otherwise indicated. Figures in tables may not add up due to rounding. ISSN 0008-9273 (print) ISSN 1811-1254 (online) CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 ECONOMIC SURVEY 9 1. International Economic Developments and the Euro Area Economy 9 International economic developments International financial markets Commodities Economic and monetary developments in the euro area 2. Output and Employment 24 Gross domestic product and industrial production Box 1: Tourism activity The labour market Box 2: Estimating Okun's Law for Malta Box 3: Business and consumer surveys 3. Prices, Costs and Competitiveness 48 HICP inflation RPI inflation Costs and competitiveness Box 4: Residential property prices 4. The Balance of Payments 57 The current account The capital and financial account 5. Government Finance 62 General government Consolidated Fund General government debt 6. Monetary and Financial Developments 68 Monetary aggregates and their counterparts The money market The capital market Box 5: Household Finance and Consumption Survey: Malta vs. euro area Box 6: ECB estimation of sensitivity to house-price and interest rate shocks 7. Economic Projections for 2013 and 2014 86 Outlook for the Maltese economy Risks to the projections ACHIEVING MALTA’S POTENTIAL GROWTH IN CHALLENGING TIMES 90 Professor Josef Bonnici Governor of the Central Bank of Malta ARTICLE 97 Inflation differentials between Malta and the euro area NEWS NOTES 108 STATISTICAL TABLES 115 ABBREVIATIONS ECB European Central Bank ECOFIN Economic and Financial Affairs Council EONIA Euro OverNight Index Average ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks ETC Employment and Training Corporation EU European Union EURIBOR Euro Interbank Offered Rate FTSE Financial Times Stock Exchange GDP gross domestic product HCI harmonised competitiveness indicator HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund LFS Labour Force Survey LTRO longer-term refinancing operation MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MFI monetary financial institution MFSA Malta Financial Services Authority MGS Malta Government Stock MRO main refinancing operation MSE Malta Stock Exchange NACE statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCB national central bank NPISH Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households NSO National Statistics Office OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OMFI other monetary financial institution OMT Outright Monetary Transaction RPI Retail Price Index ULC unit labour costs FOREWORD The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered key interest rates once during the second and third quarters of 2013. In May the Council reduced the interest rate on the main refinancing operations (MRO) of the Eurosystem by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The rate on the marginal lending facility was reduced by 50 basis points to 1.00%, while that on the deposit facility was left unchanged at 0.00%. As a result, the band around the MRO was narrowed to 50 basis points on either side. This decision was taken in view of expectations of low underlying price pressures over the medium term and against a background of economic weakness in the euro area, and subdued money and credit dynamics. On 7 November the Governing Council lowered key interest rates again amid indications of fur- ther diminishing underlying price pressures in the euro area over the medium term and subdued monetary and credit dynamics. The interest rate on the MROs of the Eurosystem was cut by another 25 basis points to a new historical low of 0.25%. At the same time, the interest rate on the marginal lending facility was lowered by 25 basis points to 0.75%, while that on the deposit facility was left unchanged at 0.00%. Meanwhile, the Eurosystem continued to implement non-standard monetary policy measures aimed at supporting the monetary policy transmission mechanism. In July the Governing Council introduced forward guidance, announcing that it expected key interest rates to remain unchanged or at lower levels for an extended period of time. In November the Governing Council also decided to continue conducting its MROs as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary and at least until 7 July 2015. This procedure will also continue to be applied in the special-term refinancing operations with a maturity of one maintenance period, and at least until the end of June 2015. The Eurosystem’s three-month longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO) will be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment, with the rates on such operations fixed at the average rate of the MROs over the life of the respective LTRO. During the second quarter of 2013 economic growth in the euro area turned positive, following six quarters of contraction. Real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% quarter-on- quarter, following a drop of 0.2% in the previous quarter. The increase in GDP reflected positive contributions from both domestic demand and net exports. The euro area economy is estimated to have expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the annual rate of inflation in the euro area, as measured using the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased further during the June quarter, extending the downward trend observed since August 2012, partly owing to the large degree of slack in the economy. The area- wide inflation rate dropped from 1.7% in March to 1.2% in April, reaching a new three-year low before rising to 1.6% in June. The decline in the annual inflation rate between March and June mainly reflected developments in services, although prices of non-energy industrial goods also increased at a slower annual rate. Inflation fell further to an estimated 0.7% in October, owing to a broad-based easing in price pressures. According to ECB staff projections published in September 2013, real GDP in the euro area is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2013 as a whole and to expand by 1.0% in 2014. The euro area CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2013:3 5 average annual inflation rate is expected to decline from 2.5% in 2012 to 1.5% in 2013 and to 1.3% in 2014. The Maltese economy continued to expand in the second quarter of 2013, with the annual real GDP growth rate accelerating to 3.6% from 1.8% in the previous quarter. Growth was main- ly driven by net exports, as imports fell more strongly than exports. Government consumption increased, while changes in inventories, gross fixed capital formation and private consumption declined on a year earlier. HICP inflation in Malta eased further during the second quarter of 2013, with the annual rate decelerating to 0.6% in June from 1.4% in March. This was predominantly due to movements in the prices of services, energy and non-energy industrial goods, where the inflation rate turned negative. Meanwhile, price pressures from processed and unprocessed food accelerated over the quarter under review. Annual HICP inflation remained unchanged at 0.6% in September. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed that, during the second quarter of 2013, employment rose by 3.0% in annual terms, while the labour force increased by 3.2% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. In the September quarter the LFS unemployment rate stood at 6.7%, com- pared with 6.5% a year earlier. With regard to competitiveness indicators, in June the nominal harmonised competitiveness indi- cator (HCI) was 3.1% higher on a year earlier, while the real HCI increased by 1.6%. Thus, the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar and the pound sterling since June 2012 was partly offset by a narrowing in Malta’s inflation differential against trading partners. More recent data up to September show that the annual rate of change in the nominal HCI went up to 3.5%, whereas the real HCI increased by only 2.6%, as the inflation differential narrowed again. During the sec- ond quarter of the year, Malta’s unit labour cost index, measured as a four-quarter moving aver- age was 3.2% higher in annual terms, up from 3.0% in the previous three-month period. In the external sector, during the second quarter of 2013 the current account of the balance of payments posted a larger surplus compared with the same period of 2012. This reflected a smaller deficit in merchandise trade and higher net inflows on the services account. These favour- able movements outweighed higher net outflows in the income account and lower net inflows on current transfers. The current account balance, expressed as a four-quarter moving sum, stood at 2.0% of GDP in the year to June 2013, down by half a percentage point over the comparable period a year earlier. The contribution of resident monetary financial institutions to the euro area broad money stock, which approximates the broad money aggregate (M3) in Malta, grew at a slower pace during the second quarter of 2013. Its annual growth rate decelerated to 6.7% in June from 7.6% in March. Subsequently, annual growth in M3 reached 8.4% in September. On an annual basis, deposits held by Maltese residents accelerated during the second and third quarters, while credit granted to them slowed down substantially.
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