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Danmarks Nationalbank Monetary Review 4Th Quarter Danmarks Nationalbank 2007 Danmarks Monetary Review Nationalbank Monetary Review 4th Quarter 07 4 Danmarks Nationalbank Havnegade 5 DK-1093 Copenhagen K D A N M A R K S Telephone +45 33 63 63 63 Fax +45 33 63 71 25 N A T I O N A L www.nationalbanken.dk E-mail: [email protected] B A N K 2 0 0 7 4 MMON4_07.inddON4_07.indd 1 118-01-20088-01-2008 114:19:434:19:43 Monetary Review - 4th Quarter 2007 MONETARY REVIEW 4th QUARTER 2007 The small picture on the front cover shows the "Bankers" clock, which was designed by Arne Jacobsen for the Danmarks Nationalbank building. Text may be copied from this publication provided that Danmarks Nationalbank is specifi- cally stated as the source. Changes to or misrepresentation of the content are not permit- ted. The Monetary Review is available on Danmarks Nationalbank's website: www.nationalbanken.dk under publications. Managing Editor: Jens Thomsen Editor: Anders Møller Christensen This edition closed for contributions on 7 December, 2007. The Monetary Review can be ordered from: Danmarks Nationalbank, Information Desk, Havnegade 5, DK-1093 Copenhagen K. Telephone +45 33 63 70 00 (direct) or +45 33 63 63 63. Inquiries: Monday-Friday 9.00 a.m.-4 p.m. E-mail: [email protected] Datagraf Auning A/S ISSN 0011-6149 (Online) ISSN 1398-3865 18-01-2008 07:22:00 Antal sider: 1 Rev. nr. kolofon Oprettet af Alice Colombo Monetary Review - 4th Quarter 2007 Contents Recent Economic and Monetary Trends ............................................. 1 Two New Euro Area Member States: Cyprus and Malta ................... 27 Longevity Bonds – a Financial Market Instrument to Manage Longevity Risk ....................................................................................... 29 Governor Jens Thomsen and Jens Verner Andersen, Financial Markets The article discusses the perspectives for issuance of financial instruments that are indexed to the development in life expectancy (longevity bonds). Longevity bonds can transfer the risk in connection with higher life expectancy to investors in the financial markets. However, neither issuers nor investors have so far fully embraced the instrument. Against that background, the article outlines the challenges in relation to developing a market for longevity bonds, including why there is no basis for government longevity bonds. Flexicurity – the Danish Labour-Market Model ................................. 45 Erik Haller Pedersen and Johanne Dinesen Riishøj, Economics Over the last 15 years, unemployment in Denmark has gradually decreased to one of the lowest levels in the OECD. The decrease should be viewed against the background of the string of extensive labour-market reforms that were initiated in the mid-1990s. They have contributed to the special Danish labour-market model, flexicurity. The article provides a review and assessment of flexicurity. Development in Productivity in Denmark .......................................... 67 Per Flink Iversen and Johanne Dinesen Riishøj, Economics Productivity growth in Denmark has been modest in recent years compared to previously and to other countries. This article describes recent productivity trends in Denmark and makes comparison with other countries by means of harmonised data. Economic Development in the Baltic States: Success and New Challenges ............................................................... 79 Karsten Stæhr, Tallinn University of Technology and Eesti Pank The Baltic States have seen very strong economic growth and rapidly increasing standards of living. This has been accompanied by very large current-account deficits and rising inflation. It is not clear whether the result will be a hard or a soft landing. 18-01-2008 07:23:00 Antal sider: 2 Rev. nr. 2 H:\kvo\ENG\2007\4qt\faerdige\Indholdsfortegnelse-en.doc Oprettet af Alice Colombo Monetary Review - 4th Quarter 2007 Hedge Funds and the Financial System .............................................. 97 Jesper Ulriksen Thuesen, Financial Markets Hedge funds can contribute to strengthening financial stability e.g. by enhancing price formation and supporting the development of new securities markets. At the same time, they can increase the risk of systemic crises. The most important means of protection against financial instability is competent risk management in the financial enterprises that are hedge-fund counterparties. Foreign-Exchange and Derivatives Markets in 2007 .......................... 115 Rune Egstrup and Birgitte Damm Fischer, Statistics Average daily turnover in the Danish foreign-exchange market has more than doubled since 2004. Growth in the global foreign-exchange markets has also been significant. The higher turnover in the foreign-exchange markets reflects factors such as a sustained overall upswing and increasing internationalisation. In Denmark the increase is also to a large extent related to liquidity management by banks. Speech by Governor Nils Bernstein at the Annual Meeting of the Danish Bankers Association on 5 December 2007 ....................... 129 Press Releases ....................................................................................... 135 Tables and Graphs Section Vol. XLVI, No. 4 18-01-2008 07:23:00 Antal sider: 2 Rev. nr. 2 H:\kvo\ENG\2007\4qt\faerdige\Indholdsfortegnelse-en.doc Oprettet af Alice Colombo Monetary Review - 4th Quarter 2007 1 Recent Economic and Monetary Trends This review covers the period from mid-September to the beginning of December The global economy is subject to more uncertainty than it has been for a long time due to the continued turmoil in the financial markets and rising inflation in most countries. Global economic growth remains high, but is increasingly driven by the emerging market economies. Strong demand has led to continued high commodity prices, and above all to a surge in oil prices. The dampening of growth is primarily attributable to developments in the industrialised countries, notably a negative trend in the housing markets. GDP growth is expected to subside in the USA, but to remain stable and high in non-Japan Asia and weaken in Japan. The expansion in Europe continues. The risk scenario is asymmetrical, so that global economic growth is more likely to be lower, and inflation higher, than in the central forecast. The Danish economy has heated up after several years' sustained boom. The considerable increase in activity in recent years has led to a pro- nounced rise in employment and the lowest rate of unemployment since 1974. Many business enterprises have problems recruiting the labour they need to match domestic and external demand. The shortage of labour is reflected in a clear upward trend in the rate of wage increase during 2007. Furthermore, it curbs supply-side growth. With a positive outlook for Denmark's trading partners, as well as sound household finances in Denmark, growth in demand is expected to increase in the near future. The pressure on the labour market is thus also likely to be sustained, and the rising rate of wage increase will have an adverse impact on Denmark's competitiveness. The risk of a subsequent period with unfavourable developments in activity and unemployment has thus increased. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Global economic growth is high. According to the forecasts of the Inter- national Monetary Fund (IMF), global GDP growth is expected to be 5.2 per cent in 2007, compared to 5.4 per cent in 2006. In 2008, a decline to 4.8 per cent is expected. Growth may be lower due to the uncertainty concerning the US housing market and the resulting financial turmoil, as well as the risk of higher energy prices. 18-01-2008 07:30:00 Antal sider: 26 Rev. nr. 2 H:\kvo\ENG\2007\4qt\faerdige\001- 026.doc Oprettet af Niels Arne Dam Monetary Review - 4th Quarter 2007 2 CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH IN GLOBAL PPP-GDP Chart 1 Per cent 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 USA Euro area Rest of OECD China and India Rest of world Note: Calculated on the basis of purchasing power parities (PPP). 2007-08 are estimates. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2007. The declining growth is attributable to developments in the industri- alised world, particularly the USA. Emerging market economies and other developing countries now contribute the largest share of global growth, with China and India together accounting for approximately half of the growth, cf. Chart 1. CONSENSUS FORECASTS OF GDP GROWTH Chart 2 Per cent 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov USA 2007 USA 2008 EUR 2007 EUR 2008 JPN 2007 JPN 2008 Note: The horizontal axis indicates the time of the forecasts. Source: Consensus Economics. 18-01-2008 07:30:00 Antal sider: 26 Rev. nr. 2 H:\kvo\ENG\2007\4qt\faerdige\001- 026.doc Oprettet af Niels Arne Dam Monetary Review - 4th Quarter 2007 3 GDP GROWTH, FORECASTS Table 1 2008 2009 IMF EC OECD IMF EC OECD USA ................................................ 1.9 1.7 2.0 n.a. 2.6 2.2 Euro area ....................................... 2.1 2.2 1.9 n.a. 2.1 2.0 Japan ............................................. 1.7 1.9 1.6 n.a. 2.3 1.8 Note: The IMF's forecast is from October, the European Commission's and the OECD's are from November. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, European Commission Autumn Economic Forecast, and OECD Economic Outlook. As a result of the turmoil in the international financial markets over the summer, expectations of global growth in industrialised countries have been adjusted downwards in the most recent consensus forecasts. The largest downward adjustment relates to growth in 2008 in the US economy, which is now expected to fall below its long-term level in both 2007 and 2008, cf. Chart 2. The international institutions expect even lower growth in the USA in 2008 than the respondents in the consensus forecasts do, but expect the economy to pick up in 2009, cf.
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