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QUARTERLY REVIEW 2011 Vol QUARTERLY REVIEW 2011 Vol. 44 No. 4 © Central Bank of Malta, 2011 Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta VLT 1060 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website http://www.centralbankmalta.org E-mail [email protected] Printed by Gutenberg Press Ltd Gudja Road Tarxien, Malta All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for statistical information published in the Economic Survey of this Review is 13 January 2012, except where otherwise indicated. Figures in tables may not add up due to rounding. ISSN 0008-9273 (print) ISSN 1811-1254 (online) CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 ECONOMIC SURVEY 8 1. International Economic Developments and the Euro Area Economy 8 The international economy Commodities Economic and monetary developments in the euro area 2. Output and Employment 21 Gross domestic product Box 1: Tourism Activity The labour market Box 2: Business and consumer surveys 3. Prices, Costs and Competitiveness 34 HICP inflation RPI inflation Costs and competitiveness Box 3: Residential property prices 4. The Balance of Payments 41 The current account The capital and financial account 5 Government Finance 45 General government Consolidated Fund General government debt Box 4: Government's fiscal outlook Box 5: Deficit-debt adjustments in Malta: 2007-2010 6. Monetary and Financial Developments 56 Monetary aggregates and their counterparts The money market The capital market 7. Economic projections for 2011 and 2012 64 Outlook for the Maltese economy Risks to the projections LESSONS FROM THE CRISIS 68 Professor Josef Bonnici Governor of the Central Bank of Malta NEWS NOTES 78 STATISTICAL TABLES 83 ABBREVIATIONS ECB European Central Bank ECOFIN Economic and Financial Affairs Council EEA European Economic Area EONIA Euro OverNight Index Average ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks ETC Employment and Training Corporation EU European Union EURIBOR Euro Interbank Offered Rate FTSE Financial Times Stock Exchange GDP gross domestic product HCI harmonised competitiveness indicator HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund LFS Labour Force Survey LTRO Long-term Refinancing Operation MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MFI monetary financial institution MFSA Malta Financial Services Authority MGS Malta Government Stock MRO Main Refinancing Operation MSE Malta Stock Exchange NACE statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCB national central bank NPISH Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households NSO National Statistics Office OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OMFI Other Monetary Financial Institution RPI Retail Price Index ULC unit labour costs FOREWORD After raising key interest rates by 25 basis points in July 2011, the Governing Council of the ECB lowered them in both November and December, cutting them by 25 basis points on each occasion. As a result, the interest rate on the MRO declined to 1.00% by the end of the year. Simultaneously, the rates on the marginal lending facility and on the deposit facility were lowered to 1.75% and 0.25%, respectively. These decisions were taken in view of the expectation that the intensification of market tensions would dampen economic activity and that inflation pressures in the euro area would remain modest. During the second half of the year the Eurosystem continued to implement non-standard mon- etary policy measures to support the functioning of the financial system in the euro area. In particular, in August the Governing Council decided to conduct a liquidity-providing six-month supplementary longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) as a fixed rate tender procedure with full allotment. It repeatedly extended its commitment to apply this procedure for MROs, three-month LTROs and special-term refinancing operations with a maturity of one maintenance period. In the fourth quarter, the Governing Council announced a 12-month and a 13-month LTRO, and scheduled two 36-month LTROs for December 2011 and February 2012. Each of these opera- tions is subject to the full allotment procedure and to a rate that is fixed at the average rate of the main refinancing operations over its respective life. The Council also launched a new covered bond purchase programme, lowered the reserve requirement ratio from 2% to 1%, and relaxed its collateral requirements. Meanwhile, to enhance liquidity support to the global financial system, the ECB extended a num- ber of foreign currency liquidity swap arrangements with other central banks and, in a coordinated move with them, also lowered their pricing. These measures were adopted against the backdrop of a weak economic performance in the euro area. During the third quarter of 2011, real GDP in the euro area expanded by 1.4% on a year earlier, down from 1.7% in the previous quarter. Net exports were the main driver of growth, with private consumption and investment also contributing, albeit to a lesser extent. The quarter- on-quarter pace of expansion remained unchanged at 0.2%. Annual HICP inflation in the euro area eased to 2.5% in July and August 2011, before rising to 3.0% in September. The increase in the annual inflation rate during the third quarter was mainly driven by energy prices, although processed food and, to a lesser extent, the non-energy indus- trial good categories also contributed. Headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.0% in October and November, as lower price pressures in the service sectors counteracted developments in the other HICP components. According to the December 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, real GDP growth in the euro area was expected to be between 1.5% and 1.7% in 2011, subsequently falling to between -0.4% and 1.0% in 2012, and then recovering to between 0.3% and 2.3% in 2013. The average annual rate of inflation was expected to range between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2012 and between 0.8% and 2.2% in 2013. CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2011:4 5 The pace of economic expansion in Malta also slowed down in the third quarter, with the annual rate of real GDP growth easing to 2.2% from 2.4% in the second quarter. The third quarter expansion was driven by a recovery in domestic demand, particularly a less negative change in inventories (including the statistical discrepancy), and higher government consumption. Private consumption rose moderately, whereas investment, which had risen exceptionally strongly a year earlier, declined. Labour market conditions remained broadly favourable in the third quarter, with both LFS and ETC data pointing to further annual increases in employment. However, job growth slowed down relative to the first half of the year. The average LFS unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% in the third quarter following a rate of 6.7% in the second quarter. Annual consumer price inflation measured in terms of the HICP eased from 3.1% in June to 2.7% in September. This reflected more muted increases in the prices of unprocessed food and non- energy industrial goods. Inflation eased further to 2.4% in October and 1.5% in November. A comparative assessment reveals that, since 2004, ULC growth in Malta has broadly tracked that in the euro area. As regards competitiveness, third quarter indications were mixed. While there was a slight deterioration in ULC, the HCI signalled an improvement between June and September 2011, in both real and nominal terms, reflecting favourable exchange rate develop- ments and a narrowing in Malta’s inflation differentials against its major trading partners. In the external sector, the current account of the balance of payments turned to a surplus from a deficit a year earlier. This improvement was primarily driven by a substantial decline in net outflows on the income account that was reinforced by a narrowing in the visible trade gap, by an increase in the surplus on services and by a small shift to net inward current transfers. As a result, the current account deficit, expressed as a four-quarter moving sum, narrowed to 3.0% of GDP from 4.6% in the year to September 2010. The contribution of resident MFIs to the euro area broad money stock, which approximates the broad money aggregate (M3) in Malta, expanded at a stronger pace compared with the second quarter of 2011. The annual growth rate rose to 5.7% in September from 3.9% in June, partly reflecting an acceleration in Maltese residents’ deposits. Meanwhile, the annual growth rate of credit to residents of Malta rose to 5.1% in September, bringing the deceleration seen since the beginning of 2009 to a halt. In the primary market, the yield on domestic three-month Treasury bills increased, whereas in the secondary market both the three-month rate and particularly long- term yields declined from end-June levels. Going into the fourth quarter, the three-month yield fell while the ten-year yield edged up slightly. In its latest projections, the Bank expects real GDP growth to have eased to 2.3% in 2011 and, as a result of deteriorating external demand, to slow down even further to 1.7% in 2012.1 Private consumption and net exports are expected to have been the main drivers behind the expansion in 2011. Although investment is anticipated to recover in 2012, private and government con- sumption growth are expected to moderate, dampening domestic demand. At the same time, the slowdown in Malta’s main trading partners is expected to curtail the contribution of net exports of goods and services to GDP growth. 1 These projections were based on information available up to 25 November 2011. CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2011:4 6 Average HICP inflation is expected to have risen to 2.4% in 2011, mostly driven by developments in the prices of food, non-energy industrial goods and services.
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