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2013:1 5 Employment Figures Based on the Labour Force Survey Showed an Annual Increase of 3.4% in the December Quarter

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2013:1 5 Employment Figures Based on the Labour Force Survey Showed an Annual Increase of 3.4% in the December Quarter QUARTERLY REVIEW 2013 Vol. 46 No. 1 © Central Bank of Malta, 2013 Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta VLT 1060 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website http://www.centralbankmalta.org E-mail [email protected] Printed by Gutenberg Press Ltd Gudja Road Tarxien, Malta All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for statistical information published in the Economic Survey of this Review is 7 May 2013, except where otherwise indicated. Figures in tables may not add up due to rounding. ISSN 0008-9273 (print) ISSN 1811-1254 (online) CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 ECONOMIC SURVEY 8 1. International Economic Developments and the Euro Area Economy 8 International economic developments Commodities Economic and monetary developments in the euro area 2. Output and Employment 25 Gross domestic product and industrial production Box 1: Tourism activity Box 2: Business and consumer surveys Box 3: Measuring the effects of structural reforms - A model-based analysis The labour market Box 4: Labour market resilience in Malta 3. Prices, Costs and Competitiveness 47 HICP inflation RPI inflation Costs and competitiveness Box 5: Residential property prices 4. The Balance of Payments 55 The current account The capital and financial account 5. Government Finance 60 General government Consolidated Fund General government debt Box 6: Government's fiscal outlook: Budget 2013 6. Monetary and Financial Developments 69 Monetary aggregates and their counterparts The money market The capital market 7. Economic Projections for 2013 and 2014 79 Outlook for the Maltese economy Risks to the projections ARTICLE 83 A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy NEWS NOTES 105 STATISTICAL TABLES 113 ABBREVIATIONS ECB European Central Bank ECOFIN Economic and Financial Affairs Council EONIA Euro OverNight Index Average ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks ETC Employment and Training Corporation EU European Union EURIBOR Euro Interbank Offered Rate FTSE Financial Times Stock Exchange GDP gross domestic product HCI harmonised competitiveness indicator HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund LFS Labour Force Survey LTRO longer-term refinancing operation MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MFI monetary financial institution MFSA Malta Financial Services Authority MGS Malta Government Stock MRO main refinancing operation MSE Malta Stock Exchange NACE statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCB national central bank NPISH Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households NSO National Statistics Office OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OMFI other monetary financial institution OMT Outright Monetary Transaction RPI Retail Price Index ULC unit labour costs FOREWORD The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged during the last quarter of 2012 and for the first four months of this year. On 2 May the Council cut interest rates, lowering the rate on the main refinancing operations (MRO) by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The interest rate on the marginal lending facility was lowered by 50 basis points to 1.00%, while that on the deposit facility was kept unchanged at 0.00%. This decision was taken in view of expectations of low underlying price pressures over the medium term and the continuing reces- sionary environment in the euro area. At the same time, money and credit dynamics remained subdued, while economic sentiment was weak. Throughout the period reviewed, the Eurosystem continued to implement non-standard monetary policy measures, which were mainly aimed at strengthening the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The Eurosystem also extended the conduct of MROs and special-term refinanc- ing operations with a maturity of one maintenance period as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment. Similar procedures for the three-month longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO) allotted in 2013 and in the first half of 2014 were also extended. During the final quarter of 2012, economic activity in the euro area contracted by 0.9% on a year earlier. This contraction was driven by domestic demand, which offset the positive contribution of net exports. All domestic demand components went down on their year-ago levels, with invest- ment showing the sharpest contraction. Euro area inflation based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) eased during the last three months of 2012, going down from 2.6% in September to 2.2% in December. This drop mainly reflected developments in energy prices, although movements in prices of non-energy industrial goods and of processed food also contributed. HICP inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food remained at 1.6% over the same period. The euro area-wide inflation rate con- tinued to moderate during the first four months of 2013, reaching 1.2% in April. According to the ECB staff projections published in March 2013, the euro area economy is set to contract this year, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth expected to range between -0.9% and -0.1%. Growth should recover in 2014, to stand within a range of 0.0% and 2.0%. The euro area average inflation rate is expected to ease from 2.5% in 2012 to between 1.2% and 2.0% in 2013, and between 0.6% and 2.0% in 2014. On the domestic front, economic expansion continued in the last quarter of 2012, although at a slower pace compared with the previous quarter. The annual GDP growth rate stood at 1.1%, with net exports being the driver of growth. In contrast, domestic demand declined, reflecting lower investment and inventories, while private and government consumption increased on a year earlier. HICP inflation in Malta moderated further during the fourth quarter of 2012, with the annual rate edging down to 2.8% in December from 2.9% in September. This deceleration was due to price developments in services and energy, which offset increased price pressures in non-energy industrial goods. Inflation continued to fall during the first three months of 2013, with the annual rate dropping to 1.4% in March. CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2013:1 5 Employment figures based on the Labour Force Survey showed an annual increase of 3.4% in the December quarter. As a result the unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% from 6.6% in the same period of the previous year. Competitiveness indicators continued to show mixed developments during the last three months of 2012. Thus, while both the nominal and the real harmonised competitiveness indicator increased, mostly as a result of the appreciation of the euro against major currencies, growth in unit labour costs, measured as a four-quarter moving average, eased to 3.7% from 3.9% in the year to September. Meanwhile, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a smaller surplus compared with the last quarter of 2011. This was mainly due to net outflows on the income account and a larger deficit on the merchandise trade account. As a proportion of GDP, the current account bal- ance, expressed as a four-quarter moving sum, stood at 0.4% compared with 0.5% in the previ- ous quarter, and -0.2% in 2011. The contribution of resident monetary financial institutions to the euro area broad money stock, which approximates the broad money aggregate (M3) in Malta, continued to expand in the fourth quarter of 2012. The annual growth rate accelerated to 8.7% in December from 6.3% three months earlier. Deposits held by Maltese residents also grew at a faster pace when compared with the September quarter, while credit granted to the private sector slowed down. Meanwhile, yields on three-month Treasury bills fell in both the primary and secondary market, with the secondary market rate ending the year at 1.00%. Yields on ten-year government bonds also declined, standing at 3.83% in December. Yields continued to decline in the first quarter of 2013, with the three-month and ten-year rates standing at 0.78% and 3.47% respectively at the end of March. With regard to fiscal developments, the general government deficit reached 3.3% of GDP in 2012, after it had dropped below 3% in 2011. This widening occurred as expenditure outpaced revenue. Expenditure growth partly reflected the impact of public sector wage increases, as well as strong growth in intermediate consumption and social benefit payments. Revenue was boosted by buoy- ant corporate tax receipts, as indirect tax revenue grew at a slower pace. General government debt increased, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 70.3% in 2011 to 72.1% in 2012. In its latest projection exercise concluded in May, the Bank expects real GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2012 to 1.4% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014. The Bank expects domestic demand to be the main driver of economic growth during these two years, with private consumption expected to accelerate over the projection horizon. Investment is also set to contribute to economic expan- sion, particularly in 2014, when government investment is expected to accelerate and investment in the energy sector gathers momentum. Net exports are projected to add to GDP growth in 2013, but are set to have a negative impact in 2014 as imports outpace exports. With regard to prices, HICP inflation is set to moderate to 1.4% in 2013, partly under the impact of lower energy prices. The inflation rate is projected to remain at that level in 2014. Risks to the GDP projections are broadly balanced. The fragile situation in the euro area and the possibility that external demand is weaker than expected remains a key negative risk. On the other hand, export growth may accelerate if the ongoing expansion of the business and financial CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2013:1 6 service sectors is maintained and extends into new export markets.
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