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QUARTERLY REVIEW 2012 Vol QUARTERLY REVIEW 2012 Vol. 45 No. 3 © Central Bank of Malta, 2012 Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta VLT 1060 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website http://www.centralbankmalta.org E-mail [email protected] Printed by Gutenberg Press Ltd Gudja Road Tarxien, Malta All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for statistical information published in the Economic Survey of this Review is 22 October 2012, except where otherwise indicated. Figures in tables may not add up due to rounding. ISSN 0008-9273 (print) ISSN 1811-1254 (online) CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 ECONOMIC SURVEY 8 1. International Economic Developments and the Euro Area Economy 8 International economic developments Commodities Economic and monetary developments in the euro area 2. Output and Employment 21 Gross domestic product Box 1: Tourism activity The labour market Box 2: Business and consumer surveys 3. Prices, Costs and Competitiveness 35 HICP inflation RPI inflation Costs and competitiveness Box 3: Residential property prices 4. The Balance of Payments 43 The current account The capital and financial account 5 Government Finance 47 General government Consolidated Fund General government debt 6. Monetary and Financial Developments 52 Monetary aggregates and their counterparts The money market The capital market NEWS NOTES 61 STATISTICAL TABLES 67 ABBREVIATIONS ECB European Central Bank ECOFIN Economic and Financial Affairs Council EONIA Euro OverNight Index Average ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks ETC Employment and Training Corporation EU European Union EURIBOR Euro Interbank Offered Rate FTSE Financial Times Stock Exchange GDP gross domestic product HCI harmonised competitiveness indicator HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund LFS Labour Force Survey LTRO longer-term refinancing operation MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MFI monetary financial institution MFSA Malta Financial Services Authority MGS Malta Government Stock MRO main refinancing operation MSE Malta Stock Exchange NACE statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NCB national central bank NPISH Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households NSO National Statistics Office OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OMFI other monetary financial institution RPI Retail Price Index ULC unit labour costs FOREWORD The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points in July, bringing the rate on the main refinancing operations (MRO) to a new historical low of 0.75%. In parallel, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were cut to 1.50% and zero, respectively. This decision was taken against the background of moderating inflationary pressures, a deteriorating growth outlook and subdued underlying monetary growth. Key interest rates were left unchanged up until November. The Eurosystem continued to implement non-standard monetary measures to support the finan- cial sector in the euro area. In September, the Council decided on the modalities to be used to carry out Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) in secondary markets for sovereign bonds in the euro area. Such transactions, which are subject to conditionality, seek to address distortions in government bond markets that hinder the transmission of interest rate decisions to the euro area economy. The Governing Council also eased the collateral eligibility requirements of certain securities issued or guaranteed by the central government of countries eligible for OMT or that are under a European Union/International Monetary Fund programme. In addition, it decided that the Eurosystem will restart accepting as collateral marketable debt instruments denominated in the US dollar, the pound sterling and the Japanese yen. A liquidity swap arrangement which the ECB had with the Bank of England was extended in September by another year. With regard to economic activity in the euro area, during the second quarter of 2012 real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.5% in annual terms, as a decline in domestic demand offset the positive contribution of net exports. In particular, private consumption and gross fixed capital formation decreased on a year earlier. Changes in inventories also had a significant nega- tive impact on annual GDP growth, while government consumption increased marginally. The euro area annual inflation rate based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the euro area fell to 2.4% in June from 2.7% in March. This decline was broad-based across components, but mainly reflected an easing in energy inflation. Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food lost 0.1 percentage point between March and June, falling to 1.8%. The overall annual inflation rate began to rise again in the third quarter, however, with the annual rate return- ing to 2.6% in September. According to the ECB staff macroeconomic projections published in September 2012, annual real GDP growth in the euro area is expected to be between -0.6% and -0.2% in 2012 and between -0.4% and 1.4% in 2013. Average annual inflation is expected to range between 2.4% and 2.6% this year and between 1.3% and 2.5% in 2013. In Malta, real GDP growth recovered in the second quarter, with the annual growth rate turning positive at 0.9%. The expansion during the quarter under review reflected higher net exports. In contrast, domestic demand was down on a year earlier, as lower private consumption and investment offset an increase in government consumption. Changes in inventories, which include the statistical discrepancy, also lowered GDP growth substantially. Nominal gross value added expanded, reversing the small decline recorded in the first quarter. This development reflected stronger growth in the service sectors, as well as a more moderate fall in the energy and manu- facturing sectors. CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2012:3 5 HICP inflation increased further during the second quarter of 2012, with the annual rate rising to 4.4% in June from 2.6% in March. This acceleration mainly reflected higher prices for services, particularly hotel accommodation rates, with developments in the latter also being influenced by recent methodological changes. Non-energy industrial goods inflation also increased, although moderately. In contrast, inflationary pressures stemming from energy and food prices eased. In the following quarter of the year, however, inflation decelerated to 2.9% in September. The easing between June and September was mostly due to developments in accommodation prices and fares for passenger transport. Employment continued to grow on an annual basis during the second quarter of the year, rising by 1.9%, while, according to the Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate declined on a year earlier, reaching 6.5% in June. Developments in competitiveness indicators were mixed during the June quarter. The nominal Harmonised Competitiveness Indicator dropped from its March level, reflecting the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar and pound sterling. However, when measured in real terms, it increased slightly, in line with a widening inflation differential against Malta’s main trading part- ners, thus signalling a small loss in competitiveness. Unit labour costs, measured as a four- quarter moving average, also increased on the previous quarter, as labour productivity dropped and compensation per employee rose. In the external sector, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus in the second quarter of 2012. This compares with a deficit in the same quarter of 2011. The swing to a surplus was generated mainly by a narrowing of the merchandise trade gap, though the other components of the current account also improved. Thus, lower net outflows were recorded on income transactions, while net inflows on services and current transfers were marginally higher. As a share of GDP, the current account, measured as a four-quarter sum, showed a surplus of 4.1% compared with a deficit of 7.5% in the year to June 2011. The contribution of resident monetary financial institutions to the euro area broad money stock, which approximates the broad money aggregate (M3) in Malta, continued to accelerate in the second quarter of 2012, with the annual growth rate rising to 5.6% in June, from 5.3% three months earlier. Flows into more liquid assets remained the main driver behind this development. Meanwhile, the annual growth rate of credit to residents of Malta slowed down, falling to 5.9% in June from 6.4% in March, although it continued to outpace the rate of increase in the euro area as a whole. With regard to domestic financial markets, the primary market yield on three-month Treasury bills increased to 1.04% in June. In the longer-term market, yields on ten-year government bonds dipped slightly to 4.31%. With regard to fiscal developments, the general government deficit narrowed by EUR21.5 mil- lion on a year earlier in the second quarter, as revenue outpaced expenditure. Measured over a 12-month period, the deficit stood at 2.9% of GDP. General government debt also increased, compared with March, reaching 76.3% of GDP in June. The narrowing in the deficit ratio in the quarter under review only partly corrects the widening recorded in the first quarter. Available information suggests that, without corrective action, the CENTRAL BANK OF MALTA Quarterly Review 2012:3 6 target set in the Update of the Stability Programme 2012 – 2015 may not be met. Fiscal poli- cy should continue to be oriented towards consolidation to ensure sufficient progress towards the medium-term objective of a structural balanced budget and to help stabilize, and eventually reduce, the government debt ratio. The fiscal consolidation effort should be accompanied by structural reforms aimed at increas- ing productivity and enhancing the economy’s growth potential. To support competitiveness, it is essential that wage growth be more closely linked to productivity.
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