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Quarterly Review 2006:1 Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2006:1 Vol. 39 No. 1 © Central Bank of Malta, 2006 Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta CMR 01 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website http://www.centralbankmalta.com E-mail [email protected] Printed by Print It Printing Services Corradino, Malta All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The Quarterly Review is prepared and issued by the Economics and External Relations Division of the Central Bank of Malta. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Bank. The cut-off date for statistical information pub- lished in this Review is 31 March 2006 except for data on Government Finance where the cut off date is 28 April 2006. Figures in Tables may not add up due to rounding. ISSN 0008-9273 (print) ISSN 1811-1254 (online) CONTENTS ECONOMIC SURVEY 1. Foreword 5 2. The International Environment 7 3. Monetary and Financial Developments 12 4. Output, Employment and Prices 20 Box 1: Business Perceptions Survey 33 Box 2: Comparison of 2005 Forecasts with Outturn 37 5. The Balance of Payments and the Maltese Lira 39 6. Government Finance 44 NEWS NOTES 48 STATISTICAL TABLES 53 ABBREVIATIONS COICOP Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECB European Central Bank ecu european currency unit EEA European Economic Area EMU Economic and Monetary Union ERM II exchange rate mechanism II ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks ETC Employment and Training Corporation EU European Union FI fungibility issue GDP gross domestic product HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MFI Monetary Financial Institution MFSA Malta Financial Services Authority MSE Malta Stock Exchange NACE Rev. 1 Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NPISH Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households NSO National Statistics Office OECD Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development OMFI Other Monetary Financial Institution OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries RPI Retail Prices Index UNDP United Nations Development Programme WTO World Trade Organisation ECONOMIC SURVEY 1. FOREWORD Broad money (M3) expanded at a faster pace, adding 1.2% between September and December. During the final quarter of 2005 and throughout Monetary expansion was driven mainly by the first quarter of 2006, the Maltese lira remained growth in domestic credit, particularly by lending stable against the euro at its central parity rate of to households. A substantial increase in the net MTL/EUR0.4293, in line with the commitment foreign assets of the banking system was mainly made by the Maltese authorities upon entry into due to an injection of equity capital into a foreign- ERM II.1 owned bank, which did not have a direct effect on monetary growth. The Central Bank of Malta’s net foreign assets continued to expand during the fourth quarter, During the fourth quarter the economy continued rising strongly in October on the back of capital to expand, with real GDP rising by 2.8% on a year- movements and seasonal flows, before declining on-year basis. The increase mainly reflected in November and December. However, the Bank’s changes in inventories and higher investment net foreign assets decreased during the following spending, but was dampened by a reduction in quarter, partly as a result of the transfer of government consumption and a drop in net government deposits denominated in foreign exports. Private consumption expenditure currency to credit institutions in January and moderated, growing at a slower annual rate than in strong demand for foreign exchange arising from the previous two quarters. oil purchases. Interest rate differentials in favour of the Maltese lira narrowed during this period as Nominal GDP expanded by 6.1% on a year earlier, euro area yields rose, but they remained sufficient with compensation to employees and gross to support the exchange rate peg. Against this operating surplus & mixed income rising by 2.6% background, the Bank left the central intervention and 9.8%, respectively. At the sector level, rate unchanged at 3.25% throughout the period, transport, storage & communications, “other judging that it provided adequate support to the services” and financial intermediation made exchange rate. However, the prospect of further significant contributions to nominal GDP growth. increases in interest rates abroad may call for a Manufacturing made a small positive reassessment of the monetary policy stance. contribution, as operating surpluses increased, whereas profits came under pressure in the Domestic money market interest rates showed tourism sector. only marginal fluctuations during the fourth quarter, reflecting the unchanged level of official Responses to the Bank’s latest business interest rates. They edged down slightly during perceptions survey showed that business the first two months of 2006. With short-term sentiment recovered, with a smaller proportion of interest rates in the euro area rising, the three- respondents expecting a deterioration in the month premium on the Maltese lira narrowed from general economic situation over the following six 120 basis points in September to 86 basis points months compared with the previous survey.2 in December, before falling further to 73 basis Sentiment improved considerably among points in February. manufacturing firms, operators in the tourism 1 The Maltese lira entered ERM II on 2 May 2005. The exchange rate is quoted in terms of units of Maltese lira per euro. 2 The survey was carried out between January and February 2006. Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2006:1 5 industry and services firms more widely. In During the first two months of 2006, inflation general, firms expected their own performance to eased on both measures. pick up in the first quarter of 2006, with domestically-oriented firms being more The deficit on the current account of the balance optimistic. of payments widened during the final quarter of 2005, expanding by Lm23.9 million on a year Labour market indicators continue to show earlier. Increased net outflows on the divergent trends. Labour Force Survey data for investment income account and a wider the final quarter of 2005 show that, with the labour merchandise trade gap outweighed increased net force expanding and employment increasing transfers and a small rise in the surplus on marginally, the number of unemployed rose on an services. Meanwhile, net inflows on the capital annual basis. As a result, the unemployment rate and financial account, excluding movements in went up to 7.3% from 6.9% a year earlier, though it reserves, amounted to Lm138.7 million, as was unchanged over the previous quarter. In against net outflows of Lm5.1 million in the contrast, administrative records compiled by the corresponding quarter of 2004. Employment and Training Corporation for November show a small fall in the labour supply Although a positive balance on the Consolidated on a year earlier and an increase in the gainfully Fund was recorded for the second consecutive occupied population. Consequently, the quarter during the final three months of 2005, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% from 5.6% in surplus narrowed compared with the same period November 2004. of 2004. Revenue increased on a year-on-year basis, reflecting higher tax receipts and grants, but Inflation accelerated during the fourth quarter. spending rose more rapidly, driven by increased Thus, according to the RPI, year-on-year inflation outlays on capital projects and social security accelerated to 3.6% in December from 2.9% three benefits. During the year as a whole, the months earlier. Energy and transport costs were Consolidated Fund deficit fell to Lm75.3 million the primary contributors to the pick-up in from Lm94.0 million in 2004. Meanwhile, the inflation, reflecting the upward revision to the general government deficit dropped to 3.3% of surcharge on water and electricity charges in GDP in 2005, from 5.1% in the previous year. As a October and higher prices of diesel and petrol. share of GDP, gross general government debt The year-on-year inflation rate based on the HICP outstanding fell by 1.5 percentage points during rose from 2.1% in September to 3.4% in December. 2005, to 74.7%. 6 Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2006:1 2. THE INTERNATIONAL during the quarter as a result of higher imports ENVIRONMENT and reduced export growth, with the gap reaching a record level of over USD800 billion for 2005 as a whole, equivalent to 6.4% of GDP. As energy The world economy prices receded, annual inflation declined from Although global growth was slower in the fourth 3.8% during the September quarter to 3.7% during quarter of 2005 than in the previous quarter, it the last quarter (see Table 2.2). Meanwhile, the remained relatively strong. The euro area grew at gradual improvement in the labour market a faster pace than in the previous three quarters, remained on track with the unemployment rate but still lagged behind the US and Japan. falling to 4.9% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in the main industrial countries generally eased as energy In line with its policy firming stance, the Federal prices retreated from the peak levels recorded in Reserve raised the federal funds rate target by 25 the summer months. basis points twice during the fourth quarter of 2005, to 4.25% in December (see Chart 2.1). The target rate was subsequently raised by an Economic and monetary developments in the additional quarter of a percentage point in major economies January 2006 and again in March, to end that Real GDP growth in the US slowed to a rate of month at 4.75%.
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