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Sumitro Djojohadikusumo General Observations T Heviewspresentedherea

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Sumitro Djojohadikusumo General Observations T Heviewspresentedherea INDONESIA TOWARDS THE YEAR 2000-) by : Sumitro Djojohadikusumo General Observations The views presented here are a rough sketch of certain features it the trajectory of Indonesia's evolution between now and a generatior hence, towards the end of the century. This paper deals with somt fundamental problems and identifies key issues in the problem area; under review. It indicates the significant variables which bear on tht likely course of events. It includes a normative element in the sense that we do not wish to remain passive objects of whatever forces anc trends may appear as "imminent" on the horizon. These should on the contrary move us to influence them so as to foster the growth and progress of our society under conditions of social stability and justice. However, normative desiderata must be based on a realistic comprehen• sion of the present and the recent past. Perspectives of the future, even as more glimpses, help us to envisage some of its requirements as preconditions for a bearable human existence. They provide the needed additional dimensions to the context within which we must take action now or in the immediate term to ensure that future requirements can be met. Conversely, current policies and programmes have ramifications that shape the distant future to an important degree. Our present decisions and actions affect for better or worse the pattern of our sociecy through• out the remainder of this century. It is well therefore to ask ourselves continuously what the major longer term implications are of present day policies. In the preparation of this paper I have received valuable assistance from the following associates, who are directly or indirectly connected with my work: Mr. Moh. Arsjad. Deputy-Director. Institute of Economic and Social Research, University of Indonesia ; Dr. William C. Hollinger. Consultant to the Indonesian Government; Dr. Thee Kian Wie, Project Director of the "Study on Indonesia's Long Term Growth Perspectives" ; Mr. Th. Sangian. Staff member. Office of the Minister of State for Research. They have undertaken a great part of the preparatory work and I have bene• fitted from their comments and observations during a series of discussions. The responsibility for the views expressed, for the interpretation of subject matters and for the deficiencies attendant there to is entirely mine. EKI, VOL. XXIIl NO. 3. SEPT., 1975 211 In general I subscribe lo what is fashionably called the "systems — approach" in analysing and assessing the working of the social process, i.e. the need to look at the totality of all aspects of a problem rather than to focus attention on an isolated phenomenon'). Nevertheless within the scope of this paper I have confined myself deliberately to two in• terrelated "routes of variables" pertinent to Indonesia's future. The routes are interrelated as they use the same key variable, population growth, as a common point of departure. Also, each of the routes is seen in the perspective of the year 2000 as the common "terminal date". In the Indonesian setting, as in other developing countries, popula• tion is the single most important dynamic factor among a range of other social and economic dynamics. Population growth is the given reality for the rest of this century and beyond, even when we take into consideration the possible results of vigorously pursued population policies. This being so, two categories of questions come to the fore. The first category relates to the basic requirements of the Indone• sian people in the year 2000. They are expressed in quantitative terms of food, habitation, clothing, health and education facilities. I have no desire to join the debate on the "quality of life". Not do I imply that the aforementioned components approach even remotely the criteria for life's quality that have gained currency in circles concerned with the subject. What I do emphasize is that without the future capability to provide our people with a minimum degree (which I shall spell out later) of those mundane necessities, then social stability and political via• bility will seriously he endangered. Viewed from this angle, Indonesia's future development depends critically on our ability- to make the best possible use of our natural resources, in perpetuity with a minimum of waste and for the benefit of the greatest number of people. This can he done only by enhancing the scope of human activities and by raising the quality of human resources. It is in connection with the develop• ment of our natural and human resources that the important role of 1) Mesarovic and Pcstel use the term : a "holistic" view or approach, meaning that "everything seems to depend on everything else". Cf. Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pcstel ; "Mankind at the Turning Poinl", 1974. p. 21. I have in previous writings on diflerent subjects tried lo develop some characteristics of such an approach by vievzing things in interrelationships within a broader spectrum. Cf. Sumitro Djojohadikusumo : "7/ic I'ulure of the Pacific Community", Wellington. 1972 and "Pacing the Issues of Growth-Southeast Asian Perspective", Toronto 1973. 212 EKI. VOL. XXIII NO. 3, SEPT.. 1975 science and technology — of the advanced, the adaptive and the pro• tective kind — come to mind -). The second category of questions stems from the view we have of the structure and pattern of present conditions. At this point in timi! we ask where structural relationships which bear on societal pattern; lead to by the year 2000. We proceed with conventional extrapolatioi of gross domestic product, in aggregate and per capita, over the rangt of growth rates we think to he desirable, or feasible or to he a com hination-mix" of such considetations. Sector coefficients of growth elasti city and size elasticity are applied to the aggregate projections to obtair projected growth rates disaggregated over main sectors. They consequent• ly imply a structural change of the economy with reference to relativt sectoral contributions to national income and, perhaps by inference attendant occupational activities. Sector growth entails also a considera• tion of the resource base and of the expected scope for growth of part• icular sectors of the economy. Each of the two "routes" indicated above contains elements of judgements and choices pertinent to "desirability" and "feasibility". But we must also face the question of "acceptability". To what extent a course of events will he accepted by the community-at-large related to the sense of equity which may or may not prevail. We must therefore take a look at the structure and pattern of income distribution among social groups : as they arc now and as they arc in the perspective of future evolution. By comparing the results of the two routes and infusing in such comparison the "equity" aspects, we may through an iterative process obtain a contour picture of Indonesia in the year 2000. It should he obvious that the approach deployed and the views presented here are no more than a tentative probing into a realm of dynamic relationships, which require further studies in depth in almost all respects and concerning each of their major "building blocks".'') '-) Cf. Sumitro Djojoliadil<usumo : "Aspek Ekonomi dan Volilik daripada Masalah Ekologi dan Lingkungan lUdHp" (Tlie Political liconomy of Ecology and En• vironment). Jattarta. April 197-4 Sucli studies are presently under way. Tlie Indonesian Government lias design• ated a study on Indonesia's long term growl li jierspectives. based on a com- prcliensive inventory evaluation of resources, as a priority in our national research programme. The study is being carried out under tlie supervision of the Minister of State for Rcsenrcli. who lias appointed Dr. Tbce Kian Wie of tiie National institnie ol Economic Researcli (LEKNAS) as director of ibe project. EKI, VOL. XXIIl NO. 3. SEPT.. 1975 Tig Hence. I need hardly stress that where quantifications are used in this paper, they are not intended as forecasts and certainly not as predictions. They serve solely to illustrate the nature and magnitude of the problems and to illuminate their dimensions. Future developments must he viewed and frequently re-assessed in the light of the interplay between the social and political dynamics within the societies concerned and the external circumstances and trends shaped by the strategic, political and economic forces in the international setting. This is of particular relevance to Indonesia. Our country, as part of the Southeast Asian region, has always been an area for con• vergence of and conflicts between major power interests. External in• fluences may provide valuable stimuli. They can also impede national progress. It is fair to hold that a country's success in coping with its internal problems is an important factor in its ability to turn external forces into invigourating elements or at least to mitigate their adver.se impact. We shall deal in a consecutive section with salient aspects of the regional and international context. Bearing in mind our remarks on the interplay between internal dynamics and external forces, cross-references between the national and the international spheres are sometimes mentio• ned hut mostly implied. The Growth of Indonesia's Population Our demographers, starting with the results of the population census of I97I, have projected Indonesia's population to the year 2000. They have made projections on the basis of four alternative assumptions with respect to the degree of success of our programme to decelerate popula• tion growth. Those assumptions are : first, no change in fertility rates ; second, a decline in the fertility rate of 25 percent by the year 2000 ; third, a decline of 50 percent in the fertility rate ; and finally, a decline in the fertility rate sufficient to achieve a net reproduction rate of one (NRR = I) by that year.'') Under the circumstances we deem a 25 per• cent reduction of fcrliiily rates as the most realistic.
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