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Commercial Property Examiner cluttonsim.com COMMERCIAL PROPERTY EXAMINER QUARTER TWO | 2019 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q2 2019 We invest in best in class properties for their quality, income security and sustainable growth potential. We believe that a portfolio of properties demonstrating these attributes will produce a consistent, superior investment return over time. PORTFOLIO We blend incisive, value-add research with disciplined portfolio construction, selecting those sectors with the best long-term performance prospects. PERFORMANCE Our philosophy is perfectly aligned with our clients’ objectives as long-term investors in property and best illustrated in our track record of benchmark outperformance over one, three or five year or longer-term time horizons. ASSET Our portfolio management is underpinned by a rigorous approach to individual stock selection, with active asset management to protect and enhance asset value whilst driving investment returns. [email protected] cluttonsim.com | 2 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q2 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The UK economy shrunk by 0.29% in April Rental value growth for South East Industrials and although it recovered most of the lost is weakening but it is still strong by historical ground in May, July’s Markit/CIPS PMI survey standards. However, rental values for signals an easing in the rate of economic Shopping Centres, Retail Warehouses and growth from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.2% in Q2. Shops have decreased sharply. Market interest rate expectations are not May’s IPF Consensus forecast round continues indicative of any further rise in base rates to indicate that 2019 is expected to represent until the end of 2021. Indeed Gertjan Vlieghe a cyclical trough. of the MPC has suggested that rates could be reduced to “near-zero” in the event of a All Property performance expectations for no-deal Brexit. 2019 weakened from 2.4% to 1.8% and expectations for were reduced to 3.1% from Gilt yields have hardened by a further 40 bps 3.5% in February. Capital values are now since the end of Q4 in response to recent expected to shrink by 2% or more in both reductions in consumer price inflation and 2019 and 2020. the subdued outlook for the economy. The current pricing of UK real estate remains In the medium to long-term we continue to attractive relative to other asset classes. expect the UK’s exit from the EU to entrench the current slow-down in economic growth The forward looking public real estate markets that will restrain rental growth and cause indicate that private direct property investors yields to soften. Consequently, we expect a should be looking to sell down their exposure gradual weakening in property values over the to retail and buy student accommodation, next three years; with an average annualised healthcare and logistics assets. total return 4% that is some way below the long-run average in this cycle of 10%. MSCI data indicates that All Property values contracted in Q2 for the third consecutive quarter. The capital values of all retail segments are falling. Only Industrials are benefitting from an uplift in capital values. [email protected] cluttonsim.com | 3 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q2 2019 MICRO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND GVA Chart 1.1 Economic growth - rolling 12m Chart 1.2 Bank of England economic forecast (May 2019) Chart 1.3 Historic and forecast economic growth rates UK economic output has been disappointing 5% 2.50 3.00 since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Since 4.5% 2.25 2.50 June 2009 the economy has grown at an 4% 2.7 annualised rate of just 1.8%. Forecaster 3.5% expectations of the outlook for the next two 2.00 2.00 3% years are lower still. 1.8 2.5% 1.75 1.50 1.6 2% The UK economy shrunk by 0.29% in April and 1.4 1.50 1.00 1.3 although it recovered most of the lost ground 1.5% in May, July’s Markit/CIPS PMI survey signals 1% 1.25 0.50 an easing in the rate of economic growth from 0.5% 0.4% in Q1 to 0.2% in Q2. 0% 1.00 00 MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN PRE GFC POST GFC BOE TREASURY OBR 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 A similar economic shock in 2008 – 09 Source: National Statistics (ONS) Source: Bank of England (BoE) Source: ONS, BoE, HM Treasury & Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) resulted in the commercial property values declining 40%. [email protected] cluttonsim.com | 4 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q2 2019 MICRO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND CPI Chart 1.4 CPI -rolling 12m Chart 1.5 Bank of England CPI forecast (May 2019) Chart 1.6 Market interest rate expectation (May 2019) Consumer Price Inflation is currently 2.0% 6% 2.25 1.25 year-on-year; right on the MPC’s target inflation rate of 2.0%. Weak economic growth forecast 5% for the next 2-years means that inflationary pressures will be relatively subdued. 4% 2.00 1.00 There is a possibility that a further fall 3% in the value of sterling could provide an 2% 1.75 0.75 inflationary spike through higher prices for imported goods. But when sterling fell 20% 1% after the 2016 referendum result, the MPC was prepared to look through the resulting 0% 1.50 0.50 MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN inflationary spike. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 Source: ONS Source: BoE Source: BoE Market interest rate expectations are not indicative of any further rise in base rates until the end of 2021. Indeed Gertjan Vlieghe of the MPC has suggested that rates could be reduced to “near-zero” in the event of a Chart 1.7 UK city economies Chart 1.8 UK city economies excl. London 1 Chart 1.9 UK city economic growth (2013-17 annualised) no-deal Brexit. 4% 3.5% REGIONAL GVA 3% The UK’s economy is dominated by London. 2.5% The UK’s capital city is larger than the next 2% ten largest UK cities combined and has 1.5% experienced the strongest economic growth 1% of any UK city in the last 5 years. 0% -1% Analysis of City level economic data allows -2% Cluttons IM to closely target their tactical LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS BELFAST BELFAST BRISTOL BRISTOL BELFAST CARDIFF CARDIFF BRISTOL DUNDEE CARDIFF asset allocation decisions. LONDON LONDON SWANSEA SHEFFIELD SHEFFIELD ABERDEEN SHEFFIELD GLASGOW GLASGOW GLASGOW LIVERPOOL LIVERPOOL LIVERPOOL CAMBRIDGE EDINBURGH EDINBURGH NEWCASTLE EDINBURGH BIRMINGHAM BIRMINGHAM MANCHESTER MANCHESTER BIRMINGHAM MANCHESTER MIDDLESBROUGH Source: ONS Source: ONS Source: ONS [email protected] cluttonsim.com | 5 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q2 2019 INVESTMENT MARKETS INTEREST RATES & YIELDS Chart 2.1 FT GILT 5-15 year yield Chart 2.2 Property IY - GILT yield gap Chart 2.3 Asset yields(Jun 2019) The prevailing low interest rate environment 5% 5% BASE RATE 0.8 has inflated prices across the asset classes. 4.5% 4.5% But at the All Property level capital values are 4% 3M LIBOR 0.8 still below the peaks achieved in mid-2007. +1stdev 3.5% 4% FTA 5-15Y GILT 0.8 3% Gilt yields have hardened by a further 40 bps 3.5% mean 2.5% MSCI PROPERTY FUNDS 2.7 since the end of Q4 in response to recent 3% reductions in consumer price inflation and the 2% -1stdev 3.2 subdued outlook for the economy. The current 1.5% 2.5% FTSE 250 property initial / gilt yield gap has therefore 1% 2% FTSE 100 4.3 increased to 4.23 % which is more than one 0.5% standard deviation above the 10-year average. 0% 1.5% MSCI ALL PROPERTY 5.1 JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN The gap has widened by 80 basis points since 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 September last. Source: Financial Times (FT) Source: FT, MSCI & APR Source: FT & MSCI The current pricing of UK real estate remains attractive relative to other asset classes. PUBLIC REAL ESTATE PRICING Chart 2.4 FTSE Reit Nav discount Chart 2.5 Discount/Premium to NAV by country (Jul 19)2 Chart 2.6 Discount/Premium to NAV by country (Jul 19)3 80 It is not uncommon for shares in European 10% 40 public real estate companies to trade at a 30 60 5% price that reflects a discount to NAV. 20 40 0% 10 20 In the UK the widening discount to NAV of -5% 0 Reits suggests that investors are wary of 0 -10% -10 current domestic property valuations. -20 -15% -20 -30 Land Securities and British Land, with -20% -40 portfolios of Central London Offices and -40 -25% -60 Shopping Centres; and specialist Shopping -50 Centre Reits, Hammerson and Intu have a -30% -60 -80 JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN ESP PHP BYG SHB BEL CHE SWE AUT FIN NOR DEU ESP EURO FRA GBR NLD ITA LMP DLN NRR UTG WKP SAFE DIGS INTU THRL CAPC BLND BBOX LAND SGRO market capitalisation that is at a discount of 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 GPOR HMSO 40% or more to the net value of assets in Source: European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA) Source: EPRA Source: EPRA their portfolios.
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