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Commercial Property Examiner cluttonsim.com COMMERCIAL PROPERTY EXAMINER QUARTER FOUR | 2020 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q4 2020 1. KEY TAKE AWAYS The UK’s commercial real estate market has Ultra-low risk free rates and a low outlook been far more resilient in the face of the for interest rates remain supportive of real pandemic than was first feared in March and estate investment. April after the introduction of Lockdown 1.0. In the 12-months to the end of December All Property total returns could recover to 2020, All Property total returns decreased to +5% in 2021 and an annualised average of -1.0% from 2.1% in 2019. 7% in the 3 years ending December 2023. [email protected] © Cluttons LLP 2021 – 2788 | 0221 cluttonsim.com | 2 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q4 2020 2. SUMMARY The World Bank expects global economic Stock markets across the world celebrated All Property investment volumes increased output to expand by 4% in 2021 but at the authorisation of the first vaccines and by 21% in Q4 but nevertheless remained end of the year will still be more than 5% prospects of a return to normality. The UK 16% below their long run average. Total below its pre-pandemic level. Global growth equity markets rose 11% in Q4 but still investment volumes in 2020 were the lowest is projected to moderate to 3.8% in 2022, ended the year down 14%. The NASDAQ since 2012. weighed down by the pandemic’s lasting index ended the year 44% higher as investors damage to potential growth. continued to aggressively support tech stocks. For 2021, offices, logistics and residential are the favoured sectors for institutional Following six consecutive monthly increases, The current property initial / gilt yield gap investors and Germany, France and the UK GDP fell by 2.6% in November 2020 as the remains 4.9%; more than one standard the preferred destinations in Europe. UK entered its second national lockdown, deviation above the 10-year average. leaving the economy 8.5% below the levels The central forecast from Cluttons’ HouseView seen in February 2020. The UK’s commercial real estate market has model has been amended to reflect the been far more resilient in the face of the performance of the market in 2020 and the Some sectors of the economy had shown pandemic than was first feared in March and revised macro-economic forecasts. On balance, signs of a strong recovery from the first April after the introduction of Lockdown 1.0. we expect capital values at the All Property lockdown. Real estate benefitted from stamp level to stabilise this year together with an duty relief and built-up demand created by In Q4, All Property total returns increased to income return of +5%. All Property total the first lockdown. Hotels and restaurants, 2.0% from 0.7% in Q3. Capital growth was returns could therefore recover to +5% in 2021 hairdressers and beauty salons and gyms, and 0.6% compared to a decrease of -0.7% in and an annualised average of 7% in the 3 years arts and entertainment, however, have been Q3. Hardening All Property equivalent yields ending December 2023. However, the usual afflicted by the biggest loss of jobs. contributed a 1.1% uplift to valuations whilst caveats regarding uncertainty surrounding this All Property rental values decreased -0.4%. central forecast remain. The UK is now four weeks into its third Income returns amounted to 1.4% national lockdown of the pandemic. It is highly likely that economic activity will In the 12-months to the end of December decline further in Q1 2021. 2020, All Property total returns decreased to -1.0% from 2.1% in 2019. Capital growth was In September last year, there were 942,000 -6.3% in 2020 compared to -3.1% in 2019. All fewer workforce jobs than in September 2019 Property rental values decreased -2.3% and and 475,000 fewer than at the end of June 2020. income returns amounted to 5.6%. Unemployment could rise by a further 800,000 at the end of the furlough scheme and peak at 2.6 million or 7.5%. [email protected] cluttonsim.com | 3 © Cluttons LLP 2021 – 2788 | 0221 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q4 2020 3. THE WORLD ECONOMY 1.1 WORLD GROWTH PROJECTIONS (%) 1.2 DIFFERENCE FROM JUN 20 PROJECTIONS January’s edition of Global Economic Prospects Downside risks to this baseline predominate, 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 produced by the World Bank notes that including the possibility of a further increase 6 3 following a collapse last year caused by the in the spread of the virus, delays in vaccine 4 4.0 4.0 2.5 COVID-19 pandemic, global economic output procurement and distribution, more severe and 3.8 3.5 3.6 2 3.3 2 is expected to expand by 4% in 2021 but at the longer-lasting effects on potential output from 1.7 0 end of the year will still be more than 5% below the pandemic, and financial stress triggered by 1 -2 its pre-pandemic level (see Chart 1.1). Global high debt levels and weak growth. As the crisis -3.6 0.9 -4.3 -4 growth is projected to moderate to 3.8% abates, policy makers need to balance the risks 0 -0.5 in 2022, weighed down by the pandemic’s from large and growing debt loads with those -6 -0.2 -7.4 -0.9 lasting damage to potential growth. from slowing the economy through premature -8 -1 fiscal tightening. World USA Euro World USA Euro The global recovery in the second half of 2020 has been stronger than expected but has recently been dampened by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases leading to weaker projections for 2021 (see Chart 1.2). Nevertheless, the world economy is expected to strengthen over the Bank’s three year forecast horizon as confidence, consumption, and trade gradually improve, supported by ongoing vaccination. [email protected] cluttonsim.com | 4 © Cluttons LLP 2021 – 2788 | 0221 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q4 2020 4. THE UK ECONOMY 1.3 UK ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.4 UK SERVICE OUTPUT BY SECTOR Following six consecutive monthly increases, Manufacturing grew by 0.7% in November 110 120 GDP fell by 2.6% in November 2020 as the as the sector was relatively unscathed by rolling 3m (%) cons truc ma nufac services All Office Retail 20.2 UK entered its second national lockdown, Lockdown 2.0. Eight of its 13 sub-sectors 100 18.8 100 increased output. The largest contribution 90 3.8 All Services leaving the economy 8.5% below the levels 9.9 80 seen in February 2020. came from the motor vehicle industry, which Logistics 80 Arts grew 5.7% in November 2020. This industry is -0.3 -8.4 60 -1.0 70 The service sector of the economy grew by now 1.3% above its February 2020 level. -25.0 40 3.7% in the three months to November 2020 -7.6 FBS 60 -22.3 driven by increases in education and health Manufacturing also grew by 4.7% in the three 20 50 which together contributed 1.5%. However, months to November 2020. The manufacture 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov the sector declined by 3.4% in November and of transport equipment grew by 18.9%, 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov however, it is still 15.3% below its pre- is now 9.9% below the level of February 2020. 1.5 UK MANUFACTURING OUTPUT BY SECTOR (see Chart 1.3). pandemic level. The manufacture of air and spacecraft in this sub-sector has struggled to 120 regain output and remains 35.5% below the Pharma Chemicals There were falls in output in all 14 services 110 sub-sectors between October and February level (see Chart 1.5). 100 Computers November 2020. The largest contributors 90 to this were consumer facing activities IHS Markit/CIPS January survey data suggests damaged by the reimposition of restrictions that the UK economy suffered from the 80 All Manufac steepest fall in private sector output since last 70 on interaction with their customers. Transport Accommodation and food service activities May as the government introduced Lockdown 60 including hotels and restaurants, wholesale 3.0. Services were hard-hit by restrictions 50 and retail trade, other service activities on trade and reduced consumer spending. 40 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov represented by hairdressers and beauty However, manufacturers recorded a small salons and gyms, and arts, entertainment and rise in production volumes, but the rate of recreation accounted for nearly 80% of the expansion eased sharply since December. fall in services (see Chart 1.4). CGA who monitor and research the hospitality sector estimate that nearly 6,000 licensed premises were permanently closed in 2020. In fact, 9,930 sites closed and 3,955 opened for the first time. This represents a 5% contraction in the market and a 175% increase on the number of sites closed since 2019. [email protected] cluttonsim.com | 5 © Cluttons LLP 2021 – 2788 | 0221 Cluttons Investment Management Commercial property examiner | Q4 2020 The November 2020 Monetary Policy Report 1.6 MPC ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS released by the Bank of England’s MPC notes that pandemic control measures will weigh on Aug Nov 115 near-term spending to a greater extent than projected in the August 2020 Report, leading 110 to a decline in GDP in 2020 Q4.
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