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The "Islamic State" Crisis and U.S. Policy

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The The “Islamic State” Crisis and U.S. Policy Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Christopher M. Blanchard Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Carla E. Humud Analyst in Middle Eastern and African Affairs Matthew C. Weed Analyst in Foreign Policy Legislation Rhoda Margesson Specialist in International Humanitarian Policy Alex Tiersky Analyst in Foreign Affairs September 10, 2014 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R43612 The “Islamic State” Crisis and U.S. Policy Summary The Islamic State is a transnational Sunni Islamist insurgent and terrorist group that has expanded its control over areas of northwestern Iraq and northeastern Syria since 2013, threatening the security of both countries and drawing increased attention from the international community. There is debate over the degree to which the Islamic State organization might represent a direct terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland or to U.S. facilities and personnel in the region. The Islamic State (IS) was initially part of the insurgency against coalition forces in Iraq and has in the years since the 2011 U.S. withdrawal from Iraq expanded its control over areas of northwestern Iraq and northeastern Syria. The Islamic State has thrived in the disaffected Sunni tribal areas of Iraq and in the remote provinces of Syria torn by the civil war. In the summer of 2014, Islamic State-led forces, supported by Sunni Arab tribalists and groups linked to ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, advanced along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, seizing multiple population centers including Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. Since then, IS forces have massacred Iraqi civilians, often from ethnic or religious minorities, and recently executed two American journalists who had been held in captivity. The Islamic State’s tactics have drawn the ire of the international community, increasing U.S. attention on Iraq’s political problems and on the civil war in Syria. At the NATO summit in Wales during September 4-5, 2014, the Administration began to unveil a comprehensive strategy to defeat the Islamic State organization. As articulated by President Obama and other senior U.S. officials, the strategy is to use a combination of military action, support for partner forces in Iraq and Syria, diplomacy, intelligence sharing, and financial actions to try to progressively shrink the geographic and political space, manpower, and financial resources available to the Islamic State. The Administration and its allies all have ruled out deploying combat forces to either Iraq or Syria. Some assert that the U.S. strategy will attract the support of Sunnis in both Syria and Iraq in a broad effort to defeat the Islamic State. Others assess that the strategy might have minimal effect because local anti-IS forces will not have support from U.S. or other western combat troops. For details on Islamic State operations in Iraq and U.S. policy toward Iraq since the 2003 U.S. invasion, see CRS Report RS21968, Iraq: Politics, Governance, and Human Rights, by Kenneth Katzman. For further information on the Islamic State’s operations in Syria, see CRS Report RL33487, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response, coordinated by Christopher M. Blanchard. Congressional Research Service The “Islamic State” Crisis and U.S. Policy Contents The Islamic State ............................................................................................................................. 1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 2 The Situation in Iraq ........................................................................................................................ 2 Islamic State Goes on Offensive In Kurdish-Controlled Territory ...................................... 4 Effect on Iraqi Government Formation ............................................................................... 4 Iranian Involvement in the Iraq Crisis ................................................................................. 5 Situation in Syria ............................................................................................................................. 6 U.S. Responses and Options ............................................................................................................ 7 Actions in Iraq ........................................................................................................................... 8 Options in Syria ......................................................................................................................... 9 Authority for Use of Military Force Against the Islamic State and the War Powers Resolution ................................................................................................................................... 11 Selected Additional Issues Raised by the Crisis ............................................................................ 15 Humanitarian Impact and Response ........................................................................................ 15 Responses to Threats to U.S. Personnel, Facilities, and Citizens ............................................ 16 Possible Questions for Congressional Consideration .................................................................... 18 Figures Figure 1. Iraq, Syria, and Regional Unrest .................................................................................... 13 Figure 2. Evolution of IS/ISIL and Extremist Groups in Iraq and Syria, 2002-2014 .................... 14 Contacts Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 19 Congressional Research Service The “Islamic State” Crisis and U.S. Policy The Islamic State The Islamic State (IS, aka the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL/ISIS)is a transnational Sunni Islamist insurgent and terrorist group that has expanded its control over areas of northwestern Iraq and northeastern Syria since 2013, threatening the security of both countries and drawing increased attention from the international community. The Islamic State has thrived in the disaffected Sunni Muslim- inhabited areas of Iraq and in the remote provinces of Syria torn by the civil war. The Islamic State’s tactics have drawn the ire of the international community, increasing U.S. attention on Iraq’s political problems and on the civil war in Syria. Although the Islamic State is considered a direct threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East, it is unclear if it currently poses a significant direct threat to U.S. homeland security. In September 2014, National Counterterrorism Center Director Matthew Olsen stated that the group poses “a direct and significant threat to us—and to Iraqi and Syrian civilians—in the region and potentially to us here at home.”1 Olsen reported that the Islamic State “has more than 10,000 fighters …And its strategic goal is to establish an Islamic caliphate through armed conflict with governments it considers apostate—including Iraq, Syria, and the United States.” Olsen stated that “we have no credible information that ISIL is planning to attack the U.S.,” and highlighted potential threats posed by foreign fighters with Western passports. According to Olsen, as many as 12,000 foreign fighters have travelled to Syria, including more than 1,000 Europeans, and more than 100 U.S. citizens. Previous U.S. government assessments suggest that these fighters hail from more than 50 countries and that among them are Al Qaeda-linked veterans of previous conflicts. Olsen also stated that U.S. counterterrorism officials “remain mindful of the possibility that an ISIL-sympathizer—perhaps motivated by online propaganda—could conduct a limited, self-directed attack here at home with no warning.” However, Olsen noted that, “In our view, any threat to the U.S. homeland from these types of extremists is likely to be limited in scope and scale.” Statements and media materials released by the Islamic State reflect an uncompromising, exclusionary worldview and a relentless ambition. Statements by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi and Islamic State spokesman Abu Mohammed al Adnani feature sectarian calls for violence and identify Shiites, non-Muslims, and unsupportive Sunnis as enemies in the group’s struggle to establish “the Islamic State” and to revive their vision of “the caliphate.”2 The group describes Iraqi Shiites derogatorily as “rejectionists” and “polytheists” and paints the Iraqi government as a puppet of Iran. Similar ire is aimed at Syrian Alawites and the Asad government, although some sources allege that operatives for the Islamic State and its antecedents have benefitted from evolving financial and security arrangements with Damascus that started during the 2003-2011 U.S. military presence in Iraq. In July 2012, Al Baghdadi warned U.S. leaders that “the mujahidin have set out to chase the affiliates of your armies that have fled.... You will see them in your own country, God willing. The war with you has just begun.”3 In January 2014, Al Baghdadi threatened the United States directly, saying, “Know, O defender of the Cross, that a proxy war will not help you in the Levant, just as it will not help you in Iraq. Soon, you will be in direct conflict—God permitting—against your will.”4 English language propaganda 1 Remarks at the Brookings Institution by NCTC Director Matthew G. Olsen, September 3, 2014. 2 OSC Report GMP20130409405003, “ISI Emir Declares
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