MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES FALL 2016 MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM FALL OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES 2016 From Tribe to Nation: Iraqi Kurdistan on the Cusp of Statehood “For better or nition that after decades of dogged, if at times Amberin Zaman, worse, it is hard unorthodox, efforts to build their own state, Public Policy Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International to escape [the] the Iraqi Kurds are on the cusp of formally de- Center for Scholars conclusion that claring independence. It is no longer a matter future of Iraqi of “if” but “when.” Kurds lies with And the United States, as much as Iraq’s their integration neighbors—Iran, Turkey, and Syria, which into Iraqi state have restive Kurdish populations of their […] In terms of re- own—needs to be ready when Iraqi Kurdis- gional stability, it is probably preferable that tan, the first real Kurdish state in the modern [the] Kurdish independence movement does sense, is born. Most importantly, so do the not succeed.” Thus opined an American dip- Kurds. lomat stationed in Baghdad in a secret cable It will be a premature birth on many dated July 1, 1973.1 counts. The Kurdistan Regional Government Forty-three years on, official U.S. policy— (KRG) remains at war against jihadists of the that Iraq needs to remain territorially intact— so-called Islamic State (ISIS). Collapsing oil has not changed. But there is growing recog- prices have bankrupted the KRG’s rentier 1 MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES FALL 2016 About the Middle East Program Director The Middle East Program was launched in February 1998 in light of Henri J. Barkey increased U.S. engagement in the region and the profound changes sweep- ing across many Middle Eastern states. In addition to spotlighting day-to-day Associate issues, the Program concentrates on long-term economic, social, and political developments, as well as relations with the United States. Kendra Heideman The Middle East Program draws on domestic and foreign regional experts Assistant for its meetings, conferences, and occasional papers. Conferences and meet- Julia Craig Romano ings assess the policy implications of all aspects of developments within the region and individual states; the Middle East’s role in the international arena; American interests in the region; the threat of terrorism; arms proliferation; and Special thanks strategic threats to and from the regional states. Special thanks to Kendra Heideman and Julia Craig The Program pays special attention to the role of women, youth, civil society Romano for coordinating institutions, Islam, and democratic and autocratic tendencies. In addition, the Middle East Program hosts meetings on cultural issues, including contempo- and editing this publication; rary art and literature in the region. Mohammed A. Salih and Elena Scott-Kakures for • Current Affairs: The Middle East Program emphasizes analysis of current editing; Sherin Zadah for her issues and their implications for long-term developments in the region, includ- research assistance; and the ing: the events surrounding the uprisings of 2011 in the Middle East and its effect on economic, political, and social life in countries in the region; the Design staff for designing the increased use of social media; the role of youth; Palestinian-Israeli diplomacy; Occasional Paper Series. Iran’s political and nuclear ambitions; the drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq and their effect on the region; human rights violations; globalization; economic and political partnerships; and U.S. foreign policy in the region. • Gender Issues: The Middle East Program devotes considerable attention to the role of women in advancing civil society and to the attitudes of govern- ments and the clerical community toward women’s rights in the family and society at large. The Program examines employment patterns, education, legal rights, and political participation of women in the region. The Program also has a keen interest in exploring women’s increasing roles in conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction activities. • Islam, Democracy and Civil Society: The Middle East Program monitors the growing demand of people in the region for the transition to democratization, political participation, accountable government, the rule of law, and adher- ence by their governments to international conventions, human rights, and women’s rights. It continues to examine the role of Islamic movements and the role of Islamic parties in shaping political and social developments and the variety of factors that favor or obstruct the expansion of civil society. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect those of the Woodrow Wilson Center. 2 economy together with that of the rest of Iraq. The welcome American bases in their planned state. Many influx of more than a million internally displaced peo- hope that just as the United States recognized Kosovo’s ple2 (IDPs) as well as Syrian refugees has compounded independence when presented with the fait accompli, the KRG’s financial burden and sharpened ethnic fis- it will do the same for Iraqi Kurdistan. sures. Corruption and nepotism are endemic. Distrust The challenges are multiple, complex, and, many and rivalry between the two main political parties, the would argue, insurmountable. An independent Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Kurdistan will be in a prolonged state of incubation for Union of Kurdistan (PUK), remain acute, allowing sure. Yet, it has been over a century in the making and Turkey and Iran—the regional hegemons—to play the despite the obstacles, to some of its leaders at least, it two sides against each other. Iraqi Kurdistan is land- finally seems within reach. Iraq’s estimated five million locked and will always feel pressure from its neighbors. Kurds have been governing themselves for the past 25 Meanwhile, the war between the Turkish state and years. They formally achieved federal status in 2005. the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the other main Unlike the Turkish and Iranian states, the Iraqi state Kurdish bloc that sprang from Turkey, has resumed is weak. Syria’s Kurds have made big gains, but their after a more than two-year lull. Turkish fears have future is far less certain. been stoked by the fact the PKK has gained control Iraq’s Kurds have significant energy resources and over a big chunk of territory in neighboring Syria in large Western oil companies are developing them al- the wake of civil conflict there. The KDP-dominated ready. They have well-established diplomatic ties; all Iraqi Kurdish government does not need much goad- five permanent members of the UN Security Council ing from Turkey to side with it against the PKK. This have consulates in Iraqi Kurdistan as well as significant is because the Turkish Kurdish rebels are now staking economic interests in the region. Israel has already de- claim to parts of Iraqi Kurdistan as well. KDP leaders clared it would recognize an independent Iraqi Kurd- have vowed to eject them by force if need be. A dustup istan.4 Turkey, once a formidable foe, is now Iraqi is brewing.3 Kurdistan’s fastest friend. And, in Washington, the One must also consider the central Iraqi govern- Iraqi Kurds enjoy the support of Republicans and ment in Baghdad. Can a deal be struck with the Iraqis Democrats alike. over new borders, oil wealth, and, just as critically, It is too early to say what effect an independent water sharing? And how will Turkey and Iran react, Kurdistan will have on the region. If the Iraqi Kurds knowing that without their assent, life for the infant get it right, the new state could well become a force state could be truly miserable, if not impossible? for stability and a showcase for democratic governance Turkey or Iran may expect the Iraqi Kurds to help where Kurds and non-Kurds, Muslims and non-Mus- them suppress their own Kurds in exchange for rec- lims, men and women, can prosper equally. ognition, but this is unlikely to happen. Regardless of The notion that the Iraqi Kurds should be denied what their leaders think, ordinary Kurds are no longer a state because this would further fan the flames of willing to spill each other’s blood. Nationalism has separatism in Iran and Turkey is morally and logically overtaken tribalism in the Kurdish psyche. flawed. It is up to Turkey and Iran to offer their own Finally, and most crucially, what will the U.S. gov- Kurds a good enough deal to lay down their arms. ernment do? Without ironclad U.S. security guaran- Peace in either Turkey or Iran is not for the Iraqi tees, an independent Kurdistan is unlikely to survive. Kurds to deliver. The same goes for Syria. Iraqi Kurdish leaders have openly hinted they would The Iraqi Kurds have endured far greater horrors 3 MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES FALL 2016 and betrayal than any of their brethren across the bor- in stark contrast to the rest of the country that was ders. Th eir will for independence is unremitting. It is wracked by sectarian bloodletting. Indeed, during the ultimately up to the Iraqi Kurds themselves to ensure boom years it was hard to feel much sympathy for the that their long-awaited state is not stillborn. Iraqi Kurds, let alone grasp their persistent drive for a country of their own. Iraqi Kurdish Independence: The Ottoman Centuries The Long and Winding Road Until the defeat of the Ottomans by the Allies in World War I, the majority of Kurds were subjects of When most analysts discuss Iraqi Kurdish statehood, the Ottoman Empire, with the rest concentrated in they limit their arguments to a linear, cost-benefi t neighboring Persia. Th erefore, the Kurds of present- analysis. More often than not they conclude that the day Iraq and Syria were ruled from Istanbul.