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Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the US Withdrawal

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FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VISIT US AT http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ UNITED STATES ARMY WAR COLLEGE Visit our website for other free publication downloads PRESS http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ Carlisle Barracks, PA and To rate this publication click here. TURKEY-KURDISH REGIONAL GOVERNMENT RELATIONS AFTER THE U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ: PUTTING THE KURDS ON THE MAP? U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Bill Park This Publication SSI Website USAWC Website The United States Army War College The United States Army War College educates and develops leaders for service at the strategic level while advancing knowledge in the global application of Landpower. The purpose of the United States Army War College is to produce graduates who are skilled critical thinkers and complex problem solvers. Concurrently, it is our duty to the U.S. Army to also act as a “think factory” for commanders and civilian leaders at the strategic level worldwide and routinely engage in discourse and debate concerning the role of ground forces in achieving national security objectives. The Strategic Studies Institute publishes national security and strategic research and analysis to influence policy debate and bridge the gap between military and academia. The Center for Strategic Leadership and Development CENTER for contributes to the education of world class senior STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP and DEVELOPMENT leaders, develops expert knowledge, and provides U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE solutions to strategic Army issues affecting the national security community. The Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute provides subject matter expertise, technical review, and writing expertise to agencies that develop stability operations concepts and doctrines. 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STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and, • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of Defense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip reports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army participation in national security policy formulation. i Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press TURKEY-KURDISH REGIONAL GOVERNMENT RELATIONS AFTER THE U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ: PUTTING THE KURDS ON THE MAP? Bill Park March 2014 The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the inter- est of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted. iii ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5010. ***** This manuscript was funded by the U.S. Army War College External Research Associates Program. Information on this program is available on our website, www.StrategicStudies Institute.army.mil, at the Opportunities tab. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications may be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission and appropriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA. Contact SSI by visiting our website at the following address: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press publishes a monthly email newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming confer- ences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/newsletter. ISBN 1-58487-607-7 iv FOREWORD When U.S. forces departed Iraq at the end of 2011, they left behind unresolved problems relating to that country’s governance, notably concerning the rela- tionship between the federal authority in Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north. Today, disputes over the territo- rial delineation of the KRG remain a source of tension, while the discovery of significant reserves of oil and gas within and straddling the borders of the KRG has raised the stakes. Tensions have been heightened still further by the determination of the KRG authorities to pursue an energy policy independent of the central government. This has involved entering into lucrative energy exploration and exploitation agreements with a number of major energy companies, among them the U.S.-based ExxonMobil and Chevron, and moving ahead with an energy partnership with neighboring Turkey involving the construction of direct pipelines across their shared border. Baghdad regards these ac- tivities as illegal, and fears that they could be a precur- sor to Kurdish independence and a break-up of the country. Baghdad also resents Turkey’s role in these developments, which has added to the tensions be- tween these two countries that had already emerged as a result of the increasing authoritarianism and Shia sectarianism of the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. This monograph, authored by Mr. Bill Park, seeks to explore the ramifications of these developments, both for the region and for U.S. policy and interests. Tur- key is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally, Iraq is a legacy of U.S. policy, and Washington was, in many ways, the midwife for the KRG’s initial v emergence and subsequent growth. Furthermore, U.S. energy companies are now centrally involved in the evolution of the region and its relationships. Thus, the United States cannot remain indifferent to the march of events in and around Iraq and, whether it likes it or not, will be held at least partly responsible for the outcome. While this monograph makes a contribution to the ongoing debate about the legacy of the past U.S. approach to Iraq, it also performs the valuable service of bringing up to date developments in the region subsequent to the U.S. military withdrawal. To that end, the monograph throws the recent Syrian uprising into the mix. This has intensified sectarian divisions in the Middle East, further pitted Ankara against Bagh- dad, and additionally raised the specter of the Kurd- ish question. It has also brought about the deployment of NATO Patriot anti-air batteries into Turkey’s south- east, and thrown an additional spotlight on Washing- ton’s relationship with its NATO ally, Turkey. Syria’s Kurds are currently seeking to carve an au- tonomous zone out of that country’s chaos, which has aroused the interest of Iraq’s Kurds and is profoundly worrying the Turks. Ankara fears that a Syrian Kurd- ish zone could serve as a refuge and base for the Kurd- ish Workers Party (PKK), weaken the opposition to Assad, complicate any post-Assad settlement in Syria, and altogether make it harder to keep a lid on its own Kurdish problem. Indeed, Ankara’s latest effort to re- solve its domestic Kurdish difficulties is surely linked to events in neighboring Syria and Iraq. Thus, Mr. Park’s monograph is also a study of the geopolitical ramifications of a Kurdish bid for self-determination, and offers insight into the current struggle in Syria. vi Mr. Park’s timely monograph addresses a pleth- ora of issues that are vital to a range of U.S. interests, and to the debate over the legacy and purposes of U.S.
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