Millennium Ecosystem Assessment II Land and water scarcity as drivers of migration and conflicts? The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ippo, a professional circus clown in than in the more humid parts of the world. Surrey, England, must no longer To make matters worse, the intensification projects that the Zindulge in water fights with his col- of freshwater scarcity projected by the MA leagues or else face fines of up to GBP in combination with continuous water intensification of 5 000 (EUR 7 300) and disconnection from extraction from delicate dryland ecosys- freshwater scarcity in the standpipe of the local Water Board. tems is likely to exacerbate desertification, What sounds like another peculiar twist thus leading to a downward spiral of eco- combination with of British humour turns out to be a much logical deterioration and a precarious continuous water more serious matter. As even the notori- depreciation of livelihoods in many devel- ously rain-prone United Kingdom had to oping regions.This in turn can push people extraction from experience a drought of sorts, the Depart- to migrate, which can have far reaching ment for the Environment, Food and Rur- political implications wherever people delicate dryland al Affairs has issued an order to restrict compete for arable soil and freshwater. In ecosystems is likely to water consumption in Southern Eng- combination with socio-economic crisis or land’s Sutton and East Surrey districts, cultural and ethnic tensions, desertifica- exacerbate thereby affecting the lives of hundreds of tion and migration may thus even lead to thousands of citizens. In the event, the violent conflicts, exacerbate ongoing ones desertification, thus authorities deprive some sad clowns of and further the displacement of affected leading to a downward what they might rightfully claim a quint- peoples. essential requirement of their everyday Against this background, it is easily con- spiral of ecological work and livelihood. For a clown, as Zippo ceivable that the societal impacts of deser- insists, «chucking water around is as im- tification can extend beyond immediate deterioration and a portant as wearing a red nose» (Daily dryland regions. With migration serving as precarious depreciation Mail, 27 May 2006). a transmission belt, political repercussions Consider now the dryland regions of the can indeed be felt in regions that are actu- of livelihoods in many world where water matters all the more. ally remote from the world’s great deserts. developing regions. Indeed, access to water is both a vital and In the following, I will sketch the role of limiting factor in deserts and drylands. desertification as a driver of migration and This in turn can push Ecosystem services for basic human needs, discuss potential interlinkages between crop and dairy production as well as live- desertification, migration and political people to migrate, stock herding are crucially dependent on instability in dryland regions and else- which can have far the availability of freshwater, which not where. only is scarce in dryland regions per se, but reaching implications restricted further by over-exploitation and the mutually reinforcing impacts of cli- affecting local, mate change and desertification. regional, and even Indeed, the Millennium Ecosystem Assess- ment (MA) underscores that reductions in The drastic decrease in food global political and the provision of ecosystem services are a production in the Sahelian economic stability. much greater threat in dryland regions countries forces people to leave their home countries to make a living in the Western countries.

Steffen Bauer German Development Institute (DIE) Bonn, Germany

[email protected] Photo: dpa-picture-alliance

agriculture & rural development 1/2007 7 Desertification prompts ile communities are much more likely to migration give up their homes and migrate than families who are comparatively better off and living in communities that are less Some forty per cent of the world’s land vulnerable to ecological stress. Moreover, mass can be classified as dryland. These the likelihood for these migrants to return are terrestrial regions where water scarcity decreases as droughts recur more often is a limiting factor for the production of and become more severe. Although robust crops, forage, wood, and other ecosystem figures on the displacement of peoples provisioning services. In contrast to that is primarily caused by desertification deserts as such, which have little to loose are hardly available and render current in terms of natural productivity, dryland efforts for quantification largely specula-

regions are particularly at risk of desertifi- tive, these general dynamics have been Photo: UNCCD cation. For the same reasons, the impact of well documented for many dryland desertification on human livelihoods is regions in Africa, Asia and the Middle East internal displacement (see Leighton, as much more severe in densely populated as well as the Americas (see Michelle above, with further references). semi-arid regions compared to scarcely Leighton, Desertification and Migration,in: Politically, of course, both the South-North inhabited deserts. According to the Millen- Governing Global Desertification, by P.M. trespassers and the internally displaced nium Ecosystem Assessment the total Johnson et al., Ashgate: Aldershot 2006). sufferers of desertification could be cap- population of the world’s drylands The perennial stream of impoverished tured under one flag. Even two decades amounts to roughly two billion. Among Mexicans seeking to cross the «tortilla cur- ago, the United Nations Environment Pro- Desertification those, the livelihoods that need to be con- tain»(T.C. Boyle) into the United States and gramme (UNEP) suggested that those sidered as severely affected by dryland the dubious fate of Africans trying to make migrants who are effectively fleeing from degradation amount to at least 250 mil- their way to the shores of Italy and Spain hostile environmental conditions, could lion and probably up to 1.2 billion people, have recently attracted considerable reasonably be classified as «environmen- depending on the choice of criteria. Many attention in the Western media and at the tal refugees» (see Hassan el-Hinnawi, Envi- more are threatened by the prospect of highest levels of government. Although ronmental Refugees, UNEP: Nairobi 1985). desertification. In particular, they face los- these migrants are usually classified as Today it is all the more evident that global ses in biological and economic productivi- economic refugees and not necessarily climate change and desertification are ty of land as a result of gradual soil degra- running away from desertification in a indeed significant root causes for both dation. narrow sense, it can reasonably be assum- seasonal and permanent migration, inter- Given the intricate linkages of soil degra- ed that shortages of arable land, water nally as well as across borders. The label dation, agricultural production, food secu- scarcity and general ecological deteriora- «environmental refugee» remains contro- rity and poverty, many household mem- tion are among the key factors that drive versial, however, owing to the complexity bers may as a consequence of desertifica- them to leave their homes. of migration. Drawing distinct lines tion leave their homes and seek to While Western governments readily cater between political, economic and environ- supplement the income of their families to the nebulous fears attached to South- mental refugees is hardly feasible. Still, the through cash remittances. Others may North migration, the correlations between International Panel on Climate Change even be uprooted with their whole fami- degrading agricultural lands and migra- expects some 150 million environmental lies and decide to migrate in order to sur- tion of poor farmers are all the more refugees by 2050, owing to global warm- vive. In fact, it is one of the key findings of apparent with a view to internally dis- ing and an ensuing acceleration in soil ero- the Millennium Assessment that recurring placed people within the affected regions. sion and water pollution. However, to droughts and land degradation are pre- In fact, desertification-induced migration acknowledge environmental refugees dominant factors in the movement of peo- occurs at a considerably larger scale within would entail potentially far-reaching im- ple from drylands to other areas. Rather the global South, but largely out of sight of plications regarding the status of migrants unsurprisingly, recent studies also confirm the Western public. and refugees in international law. As of that poor households in ecologically frag- This relates in particular to Africa, which is now, environmental refugees are not rec- the region most acutely affected by deser- ognized as such and thus not entitled to tification. At the Horn of Africa, for request protection or asylum. Accordingly, The Millennium Ecosystem instance, rural migration out of Ethiopia’s both the UN High Commissioner for Assessment and migration drought-prone Amhara and Tigray regions Refugees and the International Organiza- «The societal and political impacts of is found to result largely from environ- tion for Migration avoid the term «envi- desertification also extend to non- mental degradation and poverty. In the ronmental refugee» and refer to «environ- dryland areas. … An influx of migrants Western Sahel, studies from Senegal, Mali mentally displaced persons» instead. may reduce the ability of the popula- and Northern Nigeria also demonstrate This notwithstanding, the United Nations tion to use ecosystem services in a rural-out migration and urban sprawl in Convention to Combat Desertification sustainable way. Such migration may response to soil erosion and declining agri- (UNCCD) explicitly acknowledges the link exacerbate urban sprawl and by com- cultural yields in the country. Similar pat- between environmental degradation and peting for scarce natural resources terns are now also studied in Central Asia migration and requests governments to bring about internal and cross-bound- and Latin America. For instance, migration take into account «the relationship be- ary social, ethnic, and political strife. is identified as a coping strategy for farm- tween poverty, migration caused by envi- Desertification-induced movement of ing households in Argentina’s rural regions ronmental factors, and desertification» people also has the potential of which are confronted with dryland degra- (UNCCD, article 17.1 (e)). Yet, this provision adversely affecting local, regional, and dation; in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan has not translated into tangible political even global political and economic severe soil erosion through salinization action so far. Given the multitude of issues stability, which may encourage for- and windstorms, in combination with covered by the convention and other, more eign intervention.» (Millennium Eco- water pollution, is a main push factor for pressing priorities on the agenda of the system Assessment: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute: Washington, DC 2005). 8 agriculture & rural development 1/2007 Up to 1.2 billion cases of environmentally induced migra- so far, is a constitutive component of that people tion nowadays, ecological deterioration is overarching discourse. seen to intensify a complex set of mecha- Given the increasingly apparent impact of worldwide are nisms, which ultimately lead to migration. global warming, doubts are burgeoning as threatened by In regions already affected by political or to whether the relatively comforting the impacts of socio-economic instability, an influx of assessment of environmental conflict desertification. migrants or refugees is likely to exacerbate research may hold for the future. Notably instability and may thus also increase the weak states, which are already struggling potential for conflict. Although conflict to maintain the most basic functions of will not necessarily follow from desertifi- governance and statehood, will almost cation-induced migration, it does not help necessarily overstrain – and may eventual- that many dryland regions are located in ly collapse – once their task to protect their developing countries with weak gover- citizens will be compounded by societal nance structures and a propensity for and economic needs to adapt to the con- parties this does not come as a big sur- internal strife. To the contrary, the societal sequences of climate change. prise. It is quite intriguing though, that the impacts of desertification and simmering Even today, growing populations and the UN Secretary-General’s recent report on conflicts are likely to mutually intensify influx of migrants into drylands bring with international migration and development and may thus fuel ongoing conflicts and – them considerable ecological footprints, even fails to mention either the issue of in extreme cases – even further the failure notably with a view to freshwater extrac- desertification or the UNCCD. In fairness to of fragile states. tion and food security. Improved manage- the UN Secretary-General it should be Again, it is Africa that provides for the ment of water supplies hence is a key chal- acknowledged, however, that the mandate most dramatic examples how vicious cir- lenge for the future of sustainable dryland to assess inter-national migration basical- cles of conflict, drought, migration and the development. However, easy solutions are ly precludes the issue of internally dis- overstraining of ecosystem services may hardly in sight. Irrigation schemes, for placed people, which constitute the bulk thrive. Reports of violent clashes between instance, have been proven a viable instru- of environmental refugees. pastoral peoples and farming communi- ment to increase food production as well ties abound. Yet, the escalation of conflicts as decreasing poverty in many rural devel- Desertification + Migration = between these groups is hardly triggered opment projects. Yet, they bear consider- by either desertification or migration able long-term risks. Because of their Conflict? alone. In fact, conflicts over the use of graz- propensity to exploit surface and ground- ing land versus farmland are often water resources, they can easily magnify In the context of recent debates about charged with ethnic tensions or other pre- the problems related to desertification weak and failing states (for an overview texts as currently observed in Western and thereby come to undermine the posi- see e&lr, no 6/2005), the nexus between Sudan’s complex Darfur crisis. In a some- tive effects attributed to them in the short desertification and migration is also con- what less intricate example, sporadic out- run. sidered as a security issue. For instance, the bursts of violence between nomadic tribes Moreover, the challenges of desertification German Advisory Council on Global and peasant farmers in the Kenyan Rift and water scarcity will increasingly tran- Change (WBGU) was prompted to explore Valley were skilfully geared by cronies of spire to the lives of peoples who were thus the linkages between continuous environ- President Daniel arap Moi throughout the far only marginally affected by the mental degradation and global security in 1990s. In the case of the Rwandan geno- impacts of desertification. To name but the medium and long-term. To this end it cide, the scarcity of land has rightfully one example, even conservative climate investigates, among a set of related ques- been highlighted as a core problem. Yet, change scenarios predict substantial loss- tions, whether migratory movements pro- the excessive and systematic violence is es in freshwater available for domestic vide a trigger for conflicts in dryland hardly conceivable without the violent consumption and farmland irrigation in regions. context of the region’s colonial and post- the dry, but highly developed region of Cal- Thus far, conflict research indicates that colonial history and politics. ifornia and Arizona. The riverine systems ecological degradation is unlikely to trig- The point thus remains that the likelihood on which these climatically dry states ger an escalation of violent conflicts in its for latent conflicts to escalate will natural- thrive originate from glaciers and snow- own right (for an overview see Nils Petter ly increase wherever an influx of displaced covered mountain ranges. In this sense, Gleditsch, Armed conflict and the environ- people intensifies the exploitation of deli- the worries of Zippo the clown merely rep- ment: a critique of the literature, Journal of cate dryland ecosystems and the competi- resent the tip of the proverbial iceberg Peace Research 35 (3) 1998). Quite to the tion over access to the latter. that is the global meltdown of glaciers, contrary, environmental problems have changing precipitation patterns and ensu- often lead to cooperation, sometimes even Outlook ing water scarcity. between neighbours with otherwise tense relations such as Egypt and Israel. Howev- er, growing demands on limited resources Hardly a suspect of green alarmism, for- will bring about more conflicts of interest. mer US president Bill Clinton recently Environmentally Displaced Persons … Fierce competition for scarce resources of prompted that global change is «more … according to the International Organiza- land and water is not only a cause for mi- remote than terrorism, but a more pro- tion for Migration are «persons who are dis- gration, but can also be intensified if in- found threat», thereby reflecting a grow- placed within their own country of habitual coming migrants or refugees increase the ing concern for the interlinkages between residence or who have crossed an interna- pressure on fragile environments and rural ongoing patterns of environmental tional border and for whom environmental communities that are already under stress. change and global security. The relation- degradation, deterioration or destruction is With a view to the past and present, no ship between desertification, migration a major cause of their displacement, al- straightforward link between migration and instability in the world’s dryland though not necessarily the sole one» (see and conflict has been proven. In most regions, vaguely understood as it may be IOM, Environmentally-Induced Population Displacements and Environmental Impacts Resulting from Mass Migrations. Geneva: UNHCR and IOM, 1996). agriculture & rural development 1/2007 9