DOCSLIB.ORG

Narratives of Scarcity: Understanding the 'Global Resource Grab'

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Narratives of Scarcity: Understanding the 'Global Resource Grab' Working Paper Working Narratives of scarcity: understanding the ‘global resource grab’ Ian Scoones, Rebecca Smalley, Ruth Hall, Dzodzi Tsikata February 2014 Working Paper 076 www.future-agricultures.org Abstract Global resource scarcity has become a central policy concern, with predictions of rising populations, natural resource depletion and hunger. Resulting narratives of scarcity drive behaviour and justify actions to harness resources considered ‘under-utilised’, leading to contestations over rights and entitlements and producing new scarcities. Yet scarcity is contingent, contextual and above all political. We present an analysis of three framings – absolute scarcity, relative scarcity and political scarcity – associated with the intellectual traditions of Malthus, Ricardo and Marx, respectively. A review of 134 global and Africa-specific policy and related sources produced over the past six years demonstrates how diverse framings of scarcity – what it is, its causes and what is to be done – are evident in competing narratives that animate debates about the future of food and farming in Africa and globally. We argue that current mainstream narratives emphasise absolute and relative scarcity, while ignoring political scarcity. We suggest a more political framing of scarcity requires paying attention to how resources are distributed between different needs and uses, and so different people and social classes. This requires, we argue, a policy emphasis for land and resource issues on rights and access, and distributional issues, centred on equity and justice. Working Paper 076 2 www.future-agricultures.org 1. Introduction agribusiness and civil society material concerning agriculture, natural resources, food availability and the global land rush? We considered material that addresses Understandings of what has been called the ‘global these issues at a global level, as well as material that resource grab’ – the large-scale acquisition of land and focuses on sub-Saharan Africa. We systematically selected other resources by governments, agribusiness companies material that has been widely cited in academic and grey and financiers often in overseas territories – have often literature on the land rush since 2007, as well as material been cast in terms of ‘scarcity’. A number of overlapping from organisations, donors and agribusinesses that have narratives are at play. Commodities, be they food, feed been influential in wider debates about land and or fuel, are deemed scarce, and therefore sought in areas agriculture, especially in Africa2. Our sources are where land and water in particular are seen to be categorised into five groups: relatively abundant. This involves taking advantage of global comparative advantages of demand and supply • International policymakers, advisers and to realise a ‘win-win’ situation, in which commodities are donors (e.g. World Bank, FAO, IFPRI, the UK supplied to those who need them while those who have think tank Foresight); the resources to produce them profit as well. A related narrative sees rising scarcities as a threat to peace. As • African regional policymakers, advisers and the world runs out of resources, increasing competition donors (e.g. African Development Bank, potentially leads to processes of exclusion, conflict and NEPAD, the Southern African Development the undermining of development. Some narratives also Community); suggest that if environmental limits are exceeded, dangers may arise, as we transgress earth system • Private investors, asset management firms boundaries. and public-sector investment arms (e.g. Chayton Capital, Rabobank, International What does the deployment of the term scarcity imply? Finance Corporation); How should we understand it? And what narratives arise from these diverse understandings? In this paper, we • Agribusiness (e.g. Syngenta, Cargill, Illovo explore of how scarcity is manufactured in policy debates; Sugar); and by who, to what ends, and involving what forms of knowledge politics. Notions of ‘scarcity’ are deployed as a • Civil society and NGOs, especially on ‘land deliberate political strategy by different groups (Hildyard grabs’ (e.g. Oxfam, ActionAid, GRAIN, African 2010; Mehta 2010a; 2001; Xenos 1989; Daly 1974). For Biodiversity Network). example, the concept of scarcity is strategically deployed within neoclassical economics to justify property rights The material was mostly textual, such as reports and regimes (Mehta 2010b). Claims of current or imminent web pages, with some video interviews (see Appendix). scarcity have been used to justify appropriation and This was a qualitative analysis involving a close reading dispossession of resources (McCarthy and Wolford 2011), of the texts, looking for discourses of scarcity and related or to support repressive policies such as population narratives as they are revealed through storylines, control (Hartmann 2010). Pointing out the constructed metaphors and omissions (Keeley and Scoones 2003; and political nature of scarcity, however, is not a call to Forsyth 2003). To help understand the authors’ underlying relativism – ‘real’, material scarcities clearly exist – but attitudes towards scarcity, we looked for key words and an acceptance that meanings and interpretations are phrases that signify particular positions, such as ‘yield co-constructed in particular policy settings, in arenas gap’ and ‘limits’. The textual material amounts to of power and contestation. There are winners and losers thousands of pages, reflecting the explosion of policy from different policy narratives, as they have material and campaign literature on the subject. effects, and shape outcomes in struggles over resources. Scarcity narratives do not merely describe but justify This paper is divided into four parts. Following an changes in access to and control over resources, in ways introduction to the ‘land rush’ context since 2007-2008, that might reduce but also reallocate scarcities across especially in Africa, the paper moves to a review of some regions and populations. It is for this reason that a deeper of the foundational literatures on the concept of scarcity, look at the narratives of scarcity currently being deployed and identifies three ‘framings’ of scarcity that each in policy arenas is important. contribute to different degrees to the policy narratives identified. Next, the paper analyses how ideas of scarcity This paper examines these narratives of scarcity are represented in the majority of sources, and the through an analysis of 134 policy sources produced since processes through which ‘scarcity’ is constructed in these 2007, with a particular focus on Africa (see Appendix)1. mainstream narratives. The final section of the paper The aim is to interrogate the assumptions and analyse offers a critical assessment of the mainstream narratives the positioning of these narratives, as a way of exploring that we uncovered, highlighting the gaps and silences, the framing and response to assumed resource scarcity. as well as the emergence of some alternative narratives. Our content analysis was guided by the question: what In conclusion, the paper argues for a greater emphasis framings of scarcity are visible in policy, investor, on the political dimensions of scarcity. Working Paper 076 3 www.future-agricultures.org 2. The land rush context Widespread degradation and deepening scarcity of land and water resources have placed a number of key food production systems around the globe The land rush sparked by the global financial, food at risk, posing a profound challenge to the task and fuel crises of 2007-2008 occurred in a context shaped of feeding a world population expected to reach by cycles of land rushes in Africa – first in the colonial 9 billion people by 2050. (FAO, 2011c: para. 1) period when Africa was partitioned by global powers, then in the 1980s with far-reaching economic From this period there has been an explosion in what liberalisation policies, including land market liberalisation some term ‘land grabs’ – investments in large-scale and the passage of investment codes targeted at commercial farms – often linked to ‘water grabs’ to promoting foreign direct investment. guarantee irrigated production. Such investments have often been justified in terms of ‘scarcity’, with overseas These cycles of land acquisitions have established investments focused on stable, secure and sustainable various models of large-scale commercial farming by food and fuel supplies to meet demands at home. Such transnational corporations for export commodity investments have involved both food crop and biofuel production alongside the dominant systems of production, and have occurred on a large scale, although smallholder agriculture across Africa (White et al. 2012). the extent of functioning investments is disputed3. A Since the 1980s, these commercialisation processes have large proportion of these are in Africa, where the debate prompted land concentration and the individualisation over the pros and cons has been intense (Deininger and of land ownership. Even in countries dominated by Byerlee 2011). peasant agriculture, there is increasing dispossession of small farmers for a range of land uses – notably mining, Globally, the policy debate has thus intensified, with agriculture and tourism. These changes have also much discussion about the drivers and consequences of intensified the commodification of hitherto non-market the rush for scarce resources. The European Commissions’ land transactions, tenure insecurity and
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Coping with Water Scarcity: What Role for Biotechnologies?
    ISSN 1729-0554 LAND AND WATER DISCUSSION 7 PAPER LAND AND WATER DISCUSSION PAPER 7 Coping with water scarcity: What role for biotechnologies? As one of its initiatives to mark World Water Day 2007, whose theme was "Coping with water scarcity", FAO organized a moderated e-mail conference entitled "Coping with water scarcity in developing countries: What role for agricultural biotechnologies?". Its main focus was on the use of biotechnologies to increase the efficiency of water use in agriculture, while a secondary focus was on two specific water-related applications of micro-organisms, in wastewater treatment and in inoculation of crops and forest trees with mycorrhizal fungi. This publication brings together the background paper and the summary report from the e-mail conference. Coping with water scarcity: What role for biotechnologies? ISBN 978-92-5-106150-3 ISSN 1729-0554 9 7 8 9 2 5 1 0 6 1 5 0 3 TC/M/I0487E/1/11.08/2000 LAND AND WATER Coping with Water DISCUSSION PAPER Scarcity: What Role for 7 Biotechnologies? By John Ruane FAO Working Group on Biotechnology Rome, Italy Andrea Sonnino FAO Research and Extension Division Rome, Italy Pasquale Steduto FAO Land and Water Division Rome, Italy and Christine Deane Faculty of Law University of Technology, Sydney Australia FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2008 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
    [Show full text]
  • Assessing Resource Depletion in LCA: a Review of Methods and Methodological Issues
    Assessing resource depletion in LCA: a review of methods and methodological issues Serenella Sala www.jrc.ec.europa.eu Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation Outline Sustainability and resources Key concepts and perspectives Review on current impact assessment methodologies for Resources 27 November 2012 2 Resources and sustainability -1 One of the father of the definition of “sustainability” was Hans Carl von Carlowitz. The concept was founded in forestry and was strictly resource-based and stayed so for centuries (Carlowitz 1713, Cotta 1828). The concept was developed by foresters because timber had been excessively overused and become a very scarce resource in the process of the industrial revolution and urbanisation. Carlowitz HC (1713)Sylvicultura oeconomica, oder haußwirthliche Nachricht und Naturmäßige Anweisung zur wilden Baum-Zucht 27 November 2012 3 Resources and sustainability _2 Around 1700, the mining industry and livelihood of thousands was threatened in Saxony. It was not that the mines had been exhausted of their ores, the problem was an acute scarcity of timber. The mining industry and smelting of ores had consumed whole forests. In the vicinity of places of mining activity the old growth forests had disappeared completely. Trees had been cut at unsustainable rates for decades without efforts to restore the forests. First, the river systems in the Erzgebirge was engineered, so logs could be transported from ever more distant forest areas, but these measures only postponed the crisis. The prices for timber rose ever more, which led to bankruptcy and closure of parts of the mining industry. 27 November 2012 4 Resources and sustainability _3 • Environmental as well as economic and social dimension • Interplay between socio-economic drivers, environmental and socio economic impacts Should resources be included in LCIA? Scientific debate For sure they should be part of the impact assessment in LCSA….
    [Show full text]
  • How Do the Extinctions of Other Creatures Affect Humans Directly?
    4/30/2020 How Do the Extinctions of Other Creatures Affect Humans Directly? How Do the Extinctions of Other Creatures Affect Humans Directly? ••• Updated March 10, 2018 By Milton Kazmeyer While extinction of animal species is part of the natural process of evolution, the expansion of the human species has led to significant increases in the extinction rate. Because humans share ecosystems with endangered species, our quality of life and our survival is linked to them. Habitat destruction, climate change, resource depletion and other factors have increased the extinction rate by a factor of 1,000, putting substantial pressure on thousands of the most vulnerable creatures on the planet. American Bison One example of how the depletion of a species affected humans is what occurred after the American bison nearly vanished in the 19th century. Originally, the bison was a common animal on the central plains, with an estimated population of 15 million, and the Native Americans of the region depended on the animal for food, leather, fur and many https://sciencing.com/extinctions-other-creatures-affect-humans-directly-20692.html 1/11 4/30/2020 How Do the Extinctions of Other Creatures Affect Humans Directly? other goods vital to a nomadic lifestyle. By 1890, however, there were only a few thousand bison left in America. Tribal hunters were able to kill more of the animals with the aid of firearms, and in some cases the United States government encouraged the widespread slaughter of bison herds. The vanishing species forced tribes dependent on the animal to move to new lands in search of food, and eventually those tribes could no longer support themselves and had to deal with the United States government for survival.
    [Show full text]
  • Plight, Plunder, and Political Ecology
    1 Plight, Plunder, and Political Ecology CIVIL STRIFE in the developing world represents perhaps the greatest international security challenge of the early twenty-first century.1 Three-quarters of all wars since 1945 have been within countries rather than between them, and the vast majority of these conflicts have oc­ curred in the world’s poorest nations.2 Wars and other violent conflicts have killed some 40 million people since 1945, and as many people may have died as a result of civil strife since 1980 as were killed in the First World War.3 Although the number of internal wars peaked in the early 1990s and has been declining slowly ever since, they remain a scourge on humanity. Armed conflicts have crippled the prospect for a better life in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, by destroying essential infrastructure, deci­ mating social trust, encouraging human and capital flight, exacerbat­ ing food shortages, spreading disease, and diverting precious financial resources toward military spending.4 Compounding matters further, the damaging effects of civil strife rarely remain confined within the afflicted countries. In the past de­ cade alone tens of millions of refugees have spilled across borders, pro­ ducing significant socioeconomic and health problems in neighboring areas. Instability has also rippled outward as a consequence of cross- border incursions by rebel groups, trafficking in arms and persons, dis­ ruptions in trade, and damage done to the reputation of entire regions in the eyes of investors. Globally, war-torn countries have become ha­ vens and recruiting grounds for international terrorist networks, orga­ nized crime, and drug traffickers.5 Indeed, the events of September 11, 2001, illustrate how small the world has become and how vulnerable even superpowers are to rising grievances and instabilities in the de­ veloping world.
    [Show full text]
  • The Water-Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities Overview
    U.S. Department of Energy The Water-Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities JUNE 2014 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY BLANK Table of Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................. iii Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................................. v Chapter 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 DOE’s Motivation and Role .................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 The DOE Approach ................................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Opportunities ............................................................................................................................................. 4 References ..........................................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Four Billion People Affected by Severe Water Scarcity
    Briefing paper Four billion people affected by severe water scarcity Number of people living in water scarce areas Research published in Science Advances on water scarcity by Prof. Hoekstra and Dr. Mesfin Mekonnen, researchers from University of Twente, reveals that as many as four billion people worldwide live under water scarcity for at least one month of the year. Their research shows that the earlier estimates did not capture the monthly variability of water scarcity and that the number of people affected by severe water scarcity are much higher. For example, the entire population of 37 countries and more than half of the population of 97 countries live under severe water scarcity during at least one month per year (Figure 1). This information is key in addressing Sustainable Development Goal 6.4 which aims to substantially reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity. Blue water scarcity is a result of the cumulative impact of the blue water footprint of agriculture, domestic water supply and industry. In areas where blue water scarcity is greater than 1 – moderate, significant and severe water scarcity – environmental flow requirements are not met, which can lead to degradation of natural ecosystems, loss of valuable ecosystem services and negative impacts on subsistence uses, such as access to drinking and other household water and loss of local fisheries. Figure 1: Percentage of population experiencing severe water scarcity at least one month of a year. Source: Water Footprint Network Data from M.M. Mekonnen & A.Y. Hoekstra, University of Twente Trade risk and water scarcity As nations work toward securing food, water, energy and other essential inputs for people’s well being, livelihoods and the country’s economic development, most countries rely on imports as well as exports of goods and services.
    [Show full text]
  • Life Cycle Assessment and Water Footprint of Hydrogen Production Methods: from Conventional to Emerging Technologies
    environments Article Life Cycle Assessment and Water Footprint of Hydrogen Production Methods: From Conventional to Emerging Technologies Andi Mehmeti 1,* ID , Athanasios Angelis-Dimakis 2 ID , George Arampatzis 3 ID , Stephen J. McPhail 4 and Sergio Ulgiati 5 1 Department of Science and Technology, Parthenope University of Naples, 80143 Naples, Italy 2 School of Applied Sciences, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield HD1 3DH, UK; [email protected] 3 School of Production Engineering and Management, Technical University of Crete, 731 00 Chania, Greece; [email protected] 4 DTE-PCU-SPCT, ENEA C.R. Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Rome, Italy; [email protected] 5 Department of Science and Technology, Parthenope University of Naples, 80134 Naples, Italy; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +39-327-556-3659 Received: 26 December 2017; Accepted: 2 February 2018; Published: 6 February 2018 Abstract: A common sustainability issue, arising in production systems, is the efficient use of resources for providing goods or services. With the increased interest in a hydrogen (H2) economy, the life-cycle environmental performance of H2 production has special significance for assisting in identifying opportunities to improve environmental performance and to guide challenging decisions and select between technology paths. Life cycle impact assessment methods are rapidly evolving to analyze multiple environmental impacts of the production of products or processes. This study marks the first step in developing process-based streamlined life cycle analysis (LCA) of several H2 production pathways combining life cycle impacts at the midpoint (17 problem-oriented) and endpoint (3 damage-oriented) levels using the state-of-the-art impact assessment method ReCiPe 2016.
    [Show full text]
  • Using Game Theory to Develop Sustainability Strategies in an Era
    ering & ine M g a n n E a Seifi and Crowther, Ind Eng Manage 2018, 7:1 l g a i e r m t Industrial Engineering & DOI: 10.4172/2169-0316.1000240 s e u n d t n I Management ISSN: 2169-0316 Research Article Open Access Using Game Theory to Develop Sustainability Strategies in an Era of Resource Depletion Shahla Seifi and David Crowther* Faculty of Business and Law, De Montfort University, The Gateway, Leicester, LE1 9BH, UK *Corresponding author: David Crowther, Faculty of Business and Law, De Montfort University, The Gateway, Leicester, LE1 9BH, UK, Tel: +44(0)7971629198; Fax: +44(0)1332720660; E-mail: [email protected] Received date: 02 November 2017; Accepted date: 07 March 2018; Published date: 14 March 2018 Copyright: © 2018 Seifi S, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Abstract Objective: Sustainability is recognized as an important objective in business planning and is of equal relevance to policy makers. It is equally accepted, almost universally, that the resources of the planet are finite and are being over consumed on an annual basis. The prognosis therefore is that resources are being depleted and competition for access to remaining resources must ensue, as countries seek to grow and develop. This will have the effect of increasing the transaction costs of business activity as they find greater difficulty in seeking restricted supply of resources.
    [Show full text]
  • Freshwater Resources
    3 Freshwater Resources Coordinating Lead Authors: Blanca E. Jiménez Cisneros (Mexico), Taikan Oki (Japan) Lead Authors: Nigel W. Arnell (UK), Gerardo Benito (Spain), J. Graham Cogley (Canada), Petra Döll (Germany), Tong Jiang (China), Shadrack S. Mwakalila (Tanzania) Contributing Authors: Thomas Fischer (Germany), Dieter Gerten (Germany), Regine Hock (Canada), Shinjiro Kanae (Japan), Xixi Lu (Singapore), Luis José Mata (Venezuela), Claudia Pahl-Wostl (Germany), Kenneth M. Strzepek (USA), Buda Su (China), B. van den Hurk (Netherlands) Review Editor: Zbigniew Kundzewicz (Poland) Volunteer Chapter Scientist: Asako Nishijima (Japan) This chapter should be cited as: Jiménez Cisneros , B.E., T. Oki, N.W. Arnell, G. Benito, J.G. Cogley, P. Döll, T. Jiang, and S.S. Mwakalila, 2014: Freshwater resources. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 229-269. 229 Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 232 3.1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Linking Environment and Conflict Prevention the Role of the United Nations
    FULL REPORT LINKING ENVIRONMENT AND CONFLICT PREVENTION THE ROLE OF THE UNITED NATIONS CSS peace ETH Zurich © CSS and swisspeace 2008 Center for Security Studies (CSS) ETH Zurich Seilergraben 45-49 - SEI CH – 8092 Zürich Tel.: +41-44-632 40 25 Fax: +41-44-632 19 41 [email protected] www.css.ethz.ch swisspeace Sonnenbergstrasse 17 P.O. Box CH - 3000 Bern 7 Tel.: +41-31-330 12 12 Fax: +41-31-330 12 13 [email protected] www.swisspeace.ch A report by Simon A. Mason, Adrian Muller Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich Albrecht Schnabel, Rina Alluri, Christian Schmid swisspeace, Bern Supervised by Andreas Wenger (CSS), Victor Mauer (CSS), and Laurent Goetschel (swisspeace) This is the full report, which can be accessed at <www.css.ethz.ch> and <www.swisspeace.ch> as well as in the “CSS Environment and Conflict Transformation” Series (www.isn.ethz.ch > “Publishing House” > “Publication Series”). An 18-page summary of this full report can be accessed at the same websites. Cover photo Paul Klee, Rosenwind 1922,39 Ölfarbe auf Grundierung auf Papier auf Karton 38,2 x 41,8 cm Zentrum Paul Klee, Bern, Schenkung Livia Klee Contents Foreword..................................................................................................................................... 4 Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 5 List of Figures and Tables...........................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Water Theft in Rural Contexts Abstract
    Water theft in rural contexts Rob White Distinguished Professor of Criminology School of Social Sciences University of Tasmania AUSTRALIA Contact author – Rob White: [email protected]; +61 3 6226 2877 Abstract Water theft is a phenomenon that is set to grow in the light of climate change, chronic drought, freshwater scarcity, and conflicts over natural resources. Drawing upon recent developments pertaining to poor regulation and the stealing of water from the Murray- Darling river system in Australia, this paper explores the cultural and political economic dimensions of water theft in the context of rurality and criminality. Framed within the overarching perspective of green criminology, the article examines water theft through the lens of rural folk crime as well as failures of regulation and environmental law enforcement. It raises issues relating to the social construction of victims of water theft, human (such as Indigenous people) and non-human (such as ecosystems). This article argues that the geographical location of water theft is integral to the dynamics of the harms committed, and the response of both governments and residents to the crime. Key words: water theft; green criminology; rural folk crime; Murray-Darling river; environmental regulation © 2019 White. This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/) Water theft in rural contexts – White Introduction In July 2017, an Australian Broadcasting Corporation Four Corners investigation revealed a series of improper conducts pertaining to the Murray-Darling Basin, the largest fresh-water system in Australia (ABC, 2017). Four Corners is a long-running investigative current affairs television program produced by the national public broadcaster (the ABC).
    [Show full text]
  • Evaluating the Economic Impact of Water Scarcity in a Changing World
    ARTICLE https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22194-0 OPEN Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world ✉ Flannery Dolan 1 , Jonathan Lamontagne 1, Robert Link2, Mohamad Hejazi3,4, Patrick Reed 5 & Jae Edmonds 3 Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond 1234567890():,; geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi- scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems. 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA. 2 Department of Medicine, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA. 3 Joint Global Change Research Institute,
    [Show full text]