RESPONSES TO WATER SCARCITY: SOCIAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND THE ROLE OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. A CASE STUDY FROM TAÕIZ, YEMEN.

by:

Yasir Mohieldeen [email protected]

Occasional Paper No. 23 Water Issues Study Group School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) September 1999

1 ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to demonstrate the importance of the social aspects (dynamics) of water in the highly political process of water policy formulation and implementation. A second purpose is to illustrate the potential usefulness of one type of data in the enhancement of the mutual adaptive capacity of governments and local communities in developing safe and sustainable water allocation and management practices. The type of data used were derived from remotely sensed imagery and have been integrated into geographical information systems. The data enabled rural water use to be detected in the 1980s and in the 1990s.

The social dynamics of water scarcity are exceptionally complex. Societies have different abilities to cope with water deficits, which are referred to in the study as 'first order scarcity'. Ohlsson (1999) calls the ability to cope with water deficits the 'adaptive capacity' of a society. Lack of 'adaptive capacity' can be considered as a 'second order scarcity'. A recently developed framework by Turton (1999a) emphasises that it is the 'adaptive capacity' of the society that determines its water development trajectory.

The experience of competing water users in the Ta'iz region of Yemen in the 1960-1996 period provides empirical evidence on a number of technical, informational and social factors which contributed to the 'closure' of a groundwater resource. The hydropolitical circumstances were conflictual and, as a result, the resource managing strategies of both the local communities, that is the irrigators, and of the government providing water for the city, failed. Special attention is given to the way that the domestic and drinking water crisis in Ta'iz has been addressed after the failure of the government installed public system. The local community has adapted by developing an unregulated private market operated by well-owners and water-browser operators. The system meets current needs although it is not founded on sound water resource information and therefore may not be sustainable.

The crisis in the TaÕiz area represents a case of total water management failure. The failure occurred because of the absence of feedback and support processes between the government and the local societies throughout the implementation of all water strategies adopted by the government.

Keywords: Water demand management, water scarcity, adaptive capacity, feedback and support, remote sensing and GIS, information dissemination.

2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to acknowledge my supervisor, Professor Tony Allan for his enormous and invaluable assistance and support during the entire study. I am indebted to Mr. Chris Handley of the SOAS Department of Geography, for his generous assistance, and provision of valuable information as an expert who worked in the study area. I would also like to thank Mr. Tony Turton for his valuable conversations, and Mr. Gerhard LichtenthŠler, of the SOAS Geography Department, for his continuos support and guidance during the study.

Thanks must also be given to the many that offered to proof read this work and, of course, many thanks to those who carried out such an arduous task.

3 CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY.

ÔWe made from water every living thing.Õ (Holy QurÕan, 21:30).

1.1 Introduction:

ÒWe ask you É your opinion of artesian wells. You think they are unimportant. All

right, the hell with you. WeÕll ask somebody else who will give us the answer we

want. Nothing personal.Ó

(Reisner, 1993; cited in Turton, 1999a)

The above quote is what Senator Moody of South Dakota said when he heard John

Wesley PowellÕs report on the proposed use of artesian wells in the Dakotas, in the

1870s. One century later, in 1976, Leggette et al., were commissioned by the Yemeni

National Water and Sanitation Authority (NWSA) to carry out hydrological studies in

Wadi Al Hayma, 12 km north of the city of TaÕiz, Yemen. The objective was to assess the groundwater aquifer in Wadi Al Hayma, and to estimate the amount of water that could be siphoned through a pipeline from Al Hayma to the city of TaÕiz which faced water shortage.

In their report, Leggette et al., (1977) estimated a quantity of 10 Mm3/yr to be transported to the city of which 8 Mm3/yr is from Al Hayma and Miqbaba, an

Ôeffective end to irrigated farmingÕ in the area, as a Ôreasonable objectiveÕ for sustainable abstraction for the city.

4 In 1982/83, the NWSA started the commissioning of wells. Some locals thought that the

NWSA would drill only seven deeper wells in the area, yet now there are more than thirty (Word & Moench, unpub, cited in Handley, 1999). The shaikh1 of Lower Wadi

Al Hayma, the late shaikh Sadiq, who agreed to the drilling, managed to get three deeper drilled wells for himself out of the deal (Handley, 1999). The farmers had been informed that pumping water from the deeper wells drilled by the NWSA, its transporting to the city through the pipe line, would not effect their shallow wells or their farms, since there is an aquiclude between their wells and the NWSAÕs wells. The NWSA promised

$10M2 compensation for loss of crops (Handley, 1999). However, Why the government should offer such a huge amount of money beforehand and before anything had occurred, is not clear.

In 1986, after four years of abstraction for the city, and by local farmers in Wadi Al

Hayma, the farmersÕ shallow dug wells dried up. The lower part of the wadi was left barren, apart from a few fields including shaikh SadiqÕs successorsÕ fields which were irrigated from his deeper drilled wells. To date nothing has been received from the promised $10M government compensation.

In 1987, and as part of an emergency drilling campaign to rescue the city, the NWSA started drilling new wells in the Lower Wadi Al Hayma, four times deeper than the ones they had drilled in 1982. The locals in Wadi Al Hayma prevented the drilling in the area by force. The army interfered and took school children hostages in the school for one day, and five shaikhs were detained by the Yemeni security services for five days in

TaÕiz, while local men went into the mountains with their weapons. The shaikhs were

1 The head man of the tribe 5 released after they had signed an agreement not to stop the drilling; their sons guarded the drilling team.

During 1996-99, a hydrological study was completed by Chris Handley of the SOAS

Geography Department, University of London, as part of his PhD degree. By using remotely sensed data, processed in SOAS, GIS work carried out by the author, and

HandleyÕs results proved that Legette et al., got it wrong. The amount of water that they considered as a safe yield for siphoning to the city was unrealistic. HandleyÕs results suggest that to achieve Legette et alÕs Ôreasonable objectiveÕ of complete demise of irrigated agriculture, only 4.8 Mm3/yr rather than 8 Mm3/yr, would be the sustainable abstraction to the city (Handley, 1999). However, LeggetteÕs report (1976) has provided the ÔanswerÕ the government wanted.

This thesis will try to record and analyse water development in Wadi Al Hayma over the past two decades, through a recently developed social framework/model which emphasises the importance of linking the technical and social aspect of water demand management together. The purpose will be to show that social integrity, government legitimacy, accurate information about water resources, sharing of information and participation of local societies in decision making are the basis of effective water strategies that lead to water Ôresources reconstructionÕ.

1.2 Water Crisis and the National Extent:

Water is a natural resource of vital importance; no life is possible without water. In arid regions water brings livelihoods and security. These circumstances politicise water

2 10M was really a lot of money in Yemen in the 1970s. Still it is a lot.of money. 6 supply and demands and can make managing water resources a very hot issue. They cause different social sectors in a society act according to water resource availability, and adapt to its scarcity. However, information on water resources in developing countries is blatantly lacking. The need for accurate information and data about water resources and about the pattern of its use and, how this pattern changes, is of vital importance to any water strategy formulation. The Middle East region provides a number of good examples of social entities facing severe water resource scarcity combined with severe lack of data and information about their water resources. Among these societies, Yemen stands out very distinctly.

Yemen is one of the oldest irrigation civilizations in the world. When dam irrigation, rainwater harvesting techniques, and water management methods were developed there,

Rome was still marsh and America was a trackless waste (The World Bank report, 1997:

i). Ibn Khaldun3, in his book ÔMuqaddimahÕ, attributed the development of the Middle

East at that time, and the underdevelopment of Europe in general, to the cold environment in Europe, and so can be said to have adopted an environmental determinism approach. In recent times, Yemen has experienced an extreme water crisis, characterised by severe water shortages in the major cities, very limited access of the population to safe drinking water and rapid depletion of groundwater aquifers. The annual replenished renewable water supply is around 2.1 Ð 2.5 billion cubic metres/yr

(Abdo, 1997). Which renders an average of 130 cubic metres per person/yr. To get a sense of the significance of this number, one has to remember that the average supply in

3 Arabian scholar (1332 - 1395 C.E) He is considered universally as the founder and father of Sociology. 7 the world is 7,500 cubic metres per person/yr and, in the Middle East region it is 1,250 cubic metres per person/yr (Abdo, 1997).

The main causes of the water crisis are: the rising demand as population increases; the rapid growth of market-led agriculture; the increasingly uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater; and the implementation of frameworks which has promoted expansion rather than efficient use and sustainable management of water resources (World Bank report, 1997). Yemen represents an extreme case of water shortage. The country stands out among countries in water crisis (The World Bank report, 1997). Firstly, because of the size of the problem: the rate of exhaustion of the aquifers is the fastest in the world, and in no other country in the world will the capital of the nation and the major cities run out of water in a decade. Secondly, Yemen stands out because of the lack of governance and social-structures that allow anything approaching a real solution to be imposed. In other words, the country lacks the Ôsocial capacityÕ to make the relevant adjustments needed to cope with increased water scarcity.

Different authors and social scientists variously explain the lack of social and governance structures. Some attribute it to the difficult mountainous topography of the country, which led to internal isolation of the tribal societies from one another, and isolation from outside Yemen. Others, such as Schoch (1982), attribute the lack of social and governance structures to the long isolation of Yemen from Middle East countries and the rest of the World. Not until after the Civil War, lasting from 1962 to 1969, did Yemen open up to regional and international influence. This long-lasting isolation has led the country, on the one hand, to preserve many traditions and practices unique to Yemen.

8 On the other hand, this isolation had some other implications such as: rudimentary infrastructure (transport, communication, Éetc.), lack of industry and the domination of old-fashion agriculture, and lack of well-trained experts in any economic or administrative sector. In addition, there has been severe lack of quantitative and qualitative information on natural resources and population, and socio-economic structures (Schoch, 1982).

The severe lack of information about natural resources in Yemen, especially water, prevents proper planning and development. Therefore, there exists an urgent need for fast accurate data showing past and present natural resource conditions (status) to help manage and utilize these valuable natural assets in a sustainable way, so that future generations can meet their own needs without stress. Turton (1999a) suggests, at present, water sector reform is widespread within the developing world, indicating that the existing water policies are inadequate. Therefore, more and more data and information on water resources are going to be in high demand in order to formulate efficient water strategies that lead to its sustainable use, and water Ôresource reconstructionÕ in the cases of the water resource depletion. (Allan & Karshenas, 1996a)

Different water resource management strategies are adopted by different countries with different degrees of success. Water resource management strategies can be categorised into two main categories: Water Demand Management (WDM), and Water Supply

Management (WSM) (Merret, 1997; Merret, 1998). WDM is a policy that stresses making better use of existing supplies, rather than developing new ones (Winpenny,

1997; LichtenthŠler & Turton, 1999). WDM is becoming more and more an essential strategy and alternative to supply management strategy.

9 Allan and Karshenas (1996a) regard WDM as becoming an alternative when societies have developed their political economies to a degree that new alternatives are economically, politically and socially bearable. Another situation where WDM becomes a must is when there is a severe water scarcity. Therefore, WDM strategies are likely to become increasingly important as adaptive mechanisms to water scarcity and for sustainable use of water in/for the future (Turton, 1999a). This is basically because most of these water policies and strategies are based on wrong assumptions centred around the idea that there is always unlimited water supply and, that water is a free good.

Different social entities have different abilities to adapt and make the necessary adjustments in the face of natural resource scarcity. Ohlsson (1999) describes this ability as the Ôadaptive capacityÕ of the society. The Ôadaptive capacityÕ of a society can be regarded as a valuable Ôsocial resourceÕ or Ôsocial capitalÕ. This Ôsocial capitalÕ can be mobilised to make the required adjustments to water scarcity. If sufficient Ôsocial resourceÕ is mobilised, it can even lead to what Karshenas (1996) describes as Ônatural resource reconstructionÕ. This can only happen through the implementation of efficient water strategies, for example, water demand management WDM.

Recent work by Turton (1999a), using these concepts, resulted in the development of a model linking Ônatural resource reconstructionÕ to the Ôadaptive capacityÕ of a social entity through Ôwater demand managementÕ. The model is illustrated schematically in

Figure (1). The model resembles the construction of a monument, the foundation of which is Ôadaptive capacityÕ. The superstructure consists of WDM strategies, and the apex is Ônatural resource reconstructionÕ. The two components of adaptive capacity Ð the structural and social components - are presented in the model as the pillars that take 10 the weight of the superstructure (WDM). The right-hand pillar represents the social component of the Ôadaptive capacityÕ. The Ôsocial componentÕ is the willingness and ability of the people to accept the WDM. It is endogenous perceptions of water, normally derived from existing belief systems. It is what is in the Ôhearts and mindsÕ of the people.

The left-hand pillar represents the structural component of Ôadaptive capacityÕ. The

Ôstructural componentÕ is the institutional, intellectual and technical abilities that make the society able to find alternative technical solutions to water scarcity. Only through this part of the model external role-players such as development agencies and NGOs can play an active role in creating the capacity building needed. They can advise on institutional arrangements, IT systems, information generation and analysis, data flow and availability, and training of skilled personnel (Turton, 1999a:26).

Natural Resource Reconstruction

Water Demand Management Structural Social Component Component Partially Feedback Largely exogenous and endogenous, can be assisted elites existing in the

alternative Support technocratic solutions by by foreign Generation of Òhearts and technical and mindsÓ of the financial Intellectual governed and support in form capital cannot be of Ôcapacity artificially buildingÕ. Institutional created.

capacity social entity to accept these Willingness and ability of the technocratic solutions as being both reasonable and legitimate.

ÔAdaptive CapacityÕ or Stock of ÔSocial ResourcesÕ available

Figure 1. TurtonÕs model linking Ônatural resource reconstructionÕ via Ôwater demand managementÕ to the Ôadaptive capacityÕ of a social entity.

11 1.3 The Objectives of the Study:

The model, in Figure 1, provided by Turton (1999a), demonstrates that a high level of

Ôadaptive capacityÕ is needed for effective formulation and implementation of WDM.

The model identifies two components of the adaptive capacity these are, the Ôstructural componentÕ and the Ôsocial componentÕ. For any WDM strategy to be effective, and to have an impact on water resource reconstruction, both the ÔsocialÕ and the ÔstructuralÕ components (the two pillars) of the adaptive capacity should be equally considered by policy makers. However, the social dynamic aspects of WDM, represented by the social component of Ôadaptive capacityÕ, the right pillar in the model, is often neglected.

Furthermore, Evans (1997: 53) explicitly states that Òbefore a national water policy can be prepared, the future water availability and the future demands need to be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracyÓ. However, Evans notes that within developing countries water-related decision-support structures are very poor, and Òdata collection has been abandoned for yearsÓ. Therefore, for WDM formulation, accurate information about past and current water resource use, demand, patterns is needed to predict future demand. This addresses the Ôstructural componentÕ of Ôadaptive capacityÕ, the left pillar in the model.

The objective of the study is to look at two main factors that are vital to the effectiveness of WDM strategies, these are: the Ôsocial componentÕ of Ôadaptive capacityÕ; and the information on which WDM strategies are based. The second factor is an essential to the decision-support structures, which is a major part of the structural component of the Ôadaptive capacityÕ. The thesis will try to highlight and stress:

12 • the importance of the social aspects of water in the formulation of WDM strategies.

WDM strategies developed by technocratic elites, to manage increasing levels of

water resource scarcity, have serious knock-on effects on social entities that can lead

to high levels of social instability. These effects can result in the failure of WDM

strategies. In other words, WDM strategies cannot be effective if the social

component of the Ôadaptive capacityÕ (the right hand pillar in the model, Figure 1) is

missing or ignored.

• the importance of accurate information for the water-related decision-support

structure, that flows into and is essential to the different aspects of the Ôstructural

componentÕ of Ôadaptive capacityÕ, the left-hand pillar in the model.

Accordingly, the thesis will look at how different Ôsocial entitiesÕ in the study area adjust to and/or cope with water scarcity. Secondly, to address the latter point, the thesis will examine how modern techniques, such as EO and GIS, can be used to provide information about water use patterns to help build decision-support structures, especially in developing countries where such structures hardly exist.

The study area is defined and described in chapter two. Chapter three discusses the social frame-work used for the analysis in this study. Chapter four will look at some technical aspects of remote sensing and GIS and will discuss their potentials in providing data about water resources. Chapter five will look at how various social entities (stakeholders) in Wadi Al Hayma adapt to water scarcity. Chapter six is a concluding chapter.

13 1.4 The Problem:

Water scarcity is prominent all over Yemen. Depending on the water use pattern and the socio-economic condition - whether rural or urban - the problem is perceived differently in various parts of the country. The TaÕiz area, in the southern highland of

Yemen (see Figure 2.), represents a situation where urban and rural water problems are mixed, and conflict with each other creating an extreme case of water management problem in the whole of the Middle East. Water crisis in the TaÕiz area represents a case of total water management failure (Handley, 1999).

There are two major groups of water use in the TaÕiz area. Rural water use, which is irrigated agriculture, and urban water use, which is basically for industrial and domestic use by the increasing industry and population of the city of TaÕiz.

Using LegetteÕs et al., (1977) incorrect estimates, the government implemented a re- allocative water strategy that has had a detrimental effect on the whole area. To increase the Ôreturn to waterÕ, the government allocated the water from the agricultural sector in the rural areas to the industrial sector and, the urban population in the city of TaÕiz Ð i.e the government has adopted Ôallocative efficiencyÕ strategy (Allan, 1998). However, the water shortage/crisis in the area has affected both the inhabitants of rural areas as well as the people and the industrial sector of the city.

In the urban area, the people of TaÕiz receive water from the public water supply only once every 15 to 40 days. The water delivery crisis in the city reached a peak during the

14 summer of 1995 (Handley & Dottridge, 1997). The scene of women and children collecting water from standpipes has become a normality, and water fetching has become part of the daily life for most families in the city. In the rural area of Wadi Al Hayma, from where the water has been siphoned through the pipeline, the exploitation of the groundwater aquifer for both agriculture and for the city has resulted in the depletion of the aquifer and the drying-up of local farmersÕ wells. From the above, the problem of the water crisis in the TaÕiz area can be addressed in the following contexts:

• Rural-urban distinction in the water resource use, with the rural area being ReesÕs

Ôecological footprintÕ for the urban area (Rees, 1996).

• The environmental impacts/damages on the rural area resulting from this distinction.

These are:

- The depletion of the groundwater aquifer due to water over-abstraction to the

city supply and for agriculture.

- The pollution of surface and ground water by the industrial and urban

development of the area.

The analysis of the status of the groundwater resource use pattern of Wadi Al Hayma will be the focus of this study and, will be examined as a case study of water management in the wider TaÕiz area. This is because the depletion of water in this particular valley has had the biggest knock-on effect on the water supply in the area and its water resource management of the region.

15 CHAPTER II. THE STUDY AREA.

2.1 Location, Demography and Social-economy:

Figure (2) shows the location of the TaÕiz area which comprises the upper catchment area, upstream, of Wadi Rasyan. Wadi Rasyan is one of the seven major wadis that form the Red Sea drainage basin, and drain the high and midland region of the Yemen to the west into the Red Sea. The area of the upper and middle catchment of Wadi Rasyan is about 1,990 km2 (Gun and Ahmed, 1995). The TaÕiz study area extents from the point 378 E UTM and 1510 N UTM. It covers approximately 929 km2. Wadi Al

Hayma constitutes the upper eastern part of Wadi Rasyan.

Demographically, the population of the TaÕiz area is among the largest in the country.

Because of inaccuracies and unavailable data on population, and missing settlement names in the only available 1:50,000 topographic map (published in 1981 from aerial photographs taken in 1973 by DOS4), the population of the study area was estimated using the 1994 census data (Dar El Yemen report, 1997). In 1994, the population of the study area according to the census was 605,000. Given that the annual population growth of Yemen is 3.6%, the current population of the area, in 1999, is about 698,000 of which 400,000 live in the main urban centre in the area Ð the city of TaÕiz. The city of TaÕiz represents the main demographic feature in the area.

4 Directorate of Overseas Surveys (U.K.). 16 Socio-economically, the study area is dominated by the city of TaÕiz, and the rural parts around the city serve as the cityÕs hinterland.

17 Figure 2. The Location of the study area.

18 The city suburbs accommodate most of the largest industrial plants that provide employment for local people. Most of the working male population of the countryside work in the city and return to their villages daily or weekly. The agricultural products from the rural area are brought to the market in TaÕiz city. A considerable proportion of the exploited water resources of the area is used for domestic and industrial needs of the city (UN/DDSMS, 1997).

2.2 Geology, Physiography and Hydrogeology:

The TaÕiz area is located within a low plateau the Southern Highlands of Yemen

(Dresch, 1989). The plateau lies in an east-west faulted graben 25km wide (Figure 3).

The graben descends from 1500m in the east to less than 900m in the west in a series of step-faulted blocks of stratified volcanics, which dip to the east or north east. The eastern edge of the area is occupied by a flat loess covered plateau, forming the surface water divide between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean (UN/DDSMS, 1997: 6; Handley

& Dottridge, 1997: 1). The volcanic rocks of the graben are comprise of fractured basic and acidic lavas, and therefore have low water storage. This precludes the successful development of wellfields in the volcanics.

The water supply of TaÕiz is derived from the alluvial deposits in the graben. The first wellfields to be developed in the alluvium, Hawban and Al Hawgala, were located downstream of the city. Because of the sewage disposals of the increasing population of the city, the water quality has drastically deteriorated. Another alluvial aquifer in the area is in Wadi Al Hayma, which lies in the northern edge of the graben. The most

19 promising future water resource in the area is the Tawilah Sandstone. It outcrops to the

north of the graben, and is thought to be present throughout the graben beneath the

volcanic sequence (Figure 3b) (Handley & Dottridge, 1997).

Horst Figure a. NORTH Al Hayma Graben Tawilah Sandstone Wadi (ephemeral) Wadi (6-10month flow) Alluvium deposits

TaÕiz

Horst

Horst Horst

NORTH Graben Figure b. TaÕiz Well Tawilah Sandstone

Alluvium

Volcanic

Figure 3. Geology and Physiography of the TaÕiz area. North-south cross section of the area (b).

20 CHAPTER III. SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY.

HeracleitusÕ famous statement ÔAll is flux, nothing is stationary5Õ proves to be valid in different fields of study, including social science, and the way that societies cope with natural resource scarcity in general. Societies are continually trying to adapt and react to natural resource scarcity.

It is well known that there is an increase in water scarcity in general at the global level

(Falkenmark, 1989), and that this is affecting the developing world. Turton (1999b) argues that this increased water scarcity will impact in some form or other on social stability within these developing states, but it is not known exactly where or how this will manifest itself. In order to survive, societies have to adapt and adopt different mechanisms to adjust the resource scarcity. Turton (1999a) emphasises that the need to understand the social dynamics of water scarcity, and how various societies cope with this scarcity, is critical. He goes further and, states that a deeper knowledge of these social dynamics of water resource scarcity is of strategic significance to governments

(ibid, 1999a).

3.1 Environmental Capital and Growth:

The relationship between economic development and environmental capital has been the concern of development studies. Since the early 1970s, at least, there has been a growing concern about the impact of economic growth on the natural environment. Two

5 Quoted recently in Sulivan (1999:1) 21 main arguments/views have evolved: that Ôgrowth is badÕ for the environment; and

Ògrowth is goodÓ for the environment (Barrett, 1996).

The Ògrowth is badÓ view was propounded in the Club of Rome report, The Limits to

Growth (Meadows et al., 1972). The Club of Rome predicted that if the world continued to develop, and use its environmental capital at the same rate as it had in the past, pollution and natural resource degradation would increase exponentially until the limit to growth is reached, with the result being a total collapse. To avoid Doomsday, the Club of Rome argues economic growth should be carefully monitored and even constrained. This argument is based on the well known Malthusian population theory.

The view emphasises that developing states and societies use, and sometimes abuse, natural resources in their trajectory to develop.

The Ògrowth is goodÓ view maintains that a high standard of living will provide the resources needed to stop and, even reverse, environmental harm (natural resource reconstruction). Furthermore, growth provides reasonable and clean technologies that reduce environmental damages. It also fuels the social institutions needed to create such technologies, thereby leading to effective environmental improvements. Recent research has demonstrated that some forms of environmental degradation initially rise, but eventually decline with increase of per capita income (ibid, 1996). The World Bank

(1992) cited that growth need not lead to natural resource degradation. These two conflicting views are combined and clearly delineated in the environmental KuznetÕs inverted U curve in Figure (4) below.

22 In Figure (4) to the left of the peak, and at a relatively low income level, relatively low value is placed on natural resources and a clean environment compared with the value of a higher standard of living. At this low income level, increases in economic growth result in increased natural resource degradation and abuse. However, after a threshold level of income per person is reached, natural resource degradation effects will be reduced

(Barrett, 1996; Cypher et al., 1997).

The peak Natural resource degradation Economic development (growth)

Figure 4. Environmental KuznetÕs Curve, showing the relationship between economic development and natural resource degradation.

3.2. The Concept of Social Adaptive Capacity: stating the obvious

ÔVerily never will God change the condition of a people

until they change what is in themselvesÕ

(Holy QurÕan, 13:11)

Different social entities have different abilities to adapt to and to cope with natural resource scarcity. This explains why, although facing almost the same resource scarcity,

23 different social entities are on different development trajectories. Social entities that lack the ability to make the necessary adjustments to cope with natural resource scarcity, can be regarded as lacking a very valuable social resource. Ohlsson (1999) calls this social resource the Ôadaptive capacityÕ of a society. Therefore, if the existence of a natural resource scarcity, such as water, is regarded as being a Ôfirst-order scarcityÕ, lack of

Ôadaptive capacityÕ can be regarded as a Ôsecond-order scarcityÕ (Ohlsson, 1999; Turton,

1999a). The ability of a social entity to find the social tools with which it can deal with the consequences of the Ôfirst-order scarcityÕ is just as significant as the water resource deficit (Turton, 1999a:8). Some societies can be in short supply and have Ôsocial resource scarcityÕ. ÔSocial resource scarcityÕ, in turn, can lead to Ôsocial stressÕ that is usually incorrectly attributed to, by the prevailing discourses, the Ôfirst-order scarcityÕ

(Turton, 1999a).

The Ôadaptive capacityÕ of a social entity can, therefore, be defined as the ability of that particular society, firstly, to develop alternative options to cope with natural resource scarcity, and secondly, to accept these alternatives as being legitimate (ibid, 1999a).

ÔAdaptive capacityÕ contains two unique elements:

• The structural element which is the institutional, intellectual and technical capacity

that is involved in water strategies formulation.

• The social element, containing perceptions which have derived from belief systems.

It is what is in the ÔheartsÕ and ÔmindsÕ of the people and, it is not easy to change

Ôunless people change what is in themselvesÕ.

24 3.3 ÔAdaptive capacityÕ, ÔCoping strategiesÕ and ÔViolent conflictsÕ:

The relationship between Ônatural resource scarcityÕ and the Ôadaptive capacityÕ of a social entity has already been demonstrated. It was shown that social entities with a high level of Ôadaptive capacityÕ has the ability to generate more Ôcoping strategiesÕ or

Ôcoping optionsÕ than social entities with a limited source of Ôadaptive capacityÕ, as depicted in Figure 5(a). ÔCoping strategiesÕ can be therefore defined as the Ôelements of adaptive capacityÕ. They are responses to stimuli. This would suggest that in the face of increasing Ôresource scarcityÕ the number of available options or Ôcoping strategiesÕ is decreasing6. The relationship between the Ônatural resource scarcityÕ and the Ôrange of coping strategiesÕ is depicted in Figure 5(b). Coping strategies (Range of coping options) Adaptive Capacity Coping strategies (Range of coping options) Natural Resource Figure a. Figure b.

Figure 5. The relationship between the Ôadaptive capacityÕ and Ôthe range of coping strategiesÕ (a)., and between Ônatural resource scarcityÕ and Ôthe range coping strategiesÕ (b).

With increasing resource scarcity, the number of available Ôcoping optionsÕ minimizes.

This may lead to eruption of Ôviolent conflictsÕ. In the context of water as an element of

6 Personal conversation with Turton 1999

25 social stability, this leads to Ôwater induced conflictsÕ (Homer-Dixon, 1996). ÔWater induced conflictsÕ can be between states (water wars) or can be internal conflicts.

ÔWater induced conflictsÕ are more likely to happen when there are less Ôcoping optionsÕ available. While a concept like Ôvirtual waterÕ - water embedded in crops - provides viable options that Ômiraculously and silently avoid the apparently inevitable consequences of water deficitsÕ, for example, water induced conflicts (Allan, 1997a;

Allan, 1997b). The concept of Ôvirtual waterÕ can be regarded as an essential strategy to increase the Ôcoping optionsÕ for social entities, especially states. Figure (6) below demonstrates the relationship between Ôcoping strategiesÕ and the probability of eruption of Ôviolent conflictÕ. Possibility of Violent conflict Coping strategies (Range of coping options)

Figure 6. The relationship between the range of Ôcoping strategies Õ available and the probability of the eruption of Ôviolent conflictsÕ. The less the Ôcoping optionsÕ available, the higher the possibility of Ôviolent conflictÕ eruption.

Moreover, Ôinternal water-induced conflictsÕ are highly linked to what is described as

Ôresource captureÕ. ÔResource captureÕ is the process by which powerful social groups shift resource-distribution in their favour over time (Homer-Dixon & Percival, 1996,

26 Turton, 1999b). Resource capture leads to ecological ÔmarginalizationÕ of some social groups, and therefore results in conflicts. ÔResource captureÕ results from water strategies that are ÔallocativeÕ in nature, and fuelled by resource scarcity.

27 CHAPTER IV. REMOTE SENSING AND GIS.

4.1 Introduction

This chapter will address the issue of information for water use and water policy making. Yemen is an information scarce country. The purpose of this section will be to show how remote sensing and GIS can provide information about water resources which can be of vital importance to decision makers, and thereby, enhances the quality and the makeup of the Ôstructural componentÕ of the social Ôadaptive capacityÕ.

In this study remote sensing and GIS are used to:

- Assess water resource conditions in rural area of TaÕiz.

- Detect the change of water use patterns by detecting the change in irrigation.

- Calculate the amount of water needed for cultivation.

- Estimate future use of water.

- Model groundwater aquifers and their recovery.

4.2 Remote Sensing & GIS: Basic Principles

Remote sensing is the science of acquiring, and measurement, of information on some property/ies of a phenomenon, object, or material by a recording device not in physical, intimate contact with the feature(s) under surveillance; techniques involve amassing knowledge pertinent to environments by measuring force fields, electromagnetic

28 radiation, or acoustic energy employing cameras, lasers, radio frequency receivers, radar systems, sonar, thermal devices, seismographs, magnetometers, gravimeters, scintillometers, and other instruments (Lellisand & Keifer, 1994; Mather, 1993;

Aronoff, 1989; http://rst.gsfc.nasa.gov).

Different sensors are mounted on-board different satellites utilizing various parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. For natural resource sensing at local scale, high spatial resolution images are needed in order to be able to detect small features. Sensors such as

Thematic Mapper (TM), (28.5 by 28.5 meters), and Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) (80 by 80 meters) are commonly used. One of the main advantages of remote sensing is that information about natural resources in inaccessible areas can be collected without much effort. Also, information about critical natural resources in very politicised environments, such as water in Yemen, can be collected without being in direct contact with that environment and, hence reduce the risks.

Studies of natural resources need high spatial, temporal, and radiometric resolutions in order to detect these resources. This results in massive data sets in image formats. In order to process these data efficiently and to achieve accurate results, other data sets, such as vector and descriptive data, need to be incorporated in the analysis. These facts lead to the need for technical solutions (Allan, 1986). Such technical solutions can be found in models provided by information systems such as Geographic Information

Systems (GIS). The GIS is a computer-based information system for the capture, input, storage, analysis, modelling, manipulating, retrieval and presentation of spatial information (Burrough, 1986; Green et al., 1993, Aronoff, 1989). Although remote

29 sensing and GIS technologies have developed separately, recently they have been more and more integrated with each other. This is noticeable since a lot of GIS software can incorporate raster images (Allan, 1998).

4.3 Data, Software and Equipment:

For the purpose of this study, satellite images acquired by the Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor on board Landsat 4 & 5 were used. The spatial resolution of TM images is 28.5 meter by 28.5 meter. TM bands used in the study are shown in Table (1) below.

Band No. Band Name Band Width Characteristics

(µm)

1 Blue 0.45-0.52 Good water penetration, strong vegetation absorbency. 2 Green 0.52-0.60 Strong vegetation reflectance. 3 Red 0.63-0.69 Very strong vegetation detection (since it is highly absorbed by vegetation). 4 Near-Infrared 0.76-0.90 High land/water contrast, very strong vegetation reflectance. 5 Mid-infrared 1.55-1.75 Very moisture sensitive. 6 Mid-infrared 2.08-2.35 Good geological discrimination.

Table 1. TM Bands used in the analysis and their characteristics. Source: (Lillesand & Kiefer, 1994).

The data used in this study were used in a study carried out by Dar Al Yemen

Hydroconsultants in 1996 and funded by the UNDP. The main objective of Dar Al

Yemen study was to provide information about water resources in the area. The

30 processing of the remotely sensed imagery was carried out by the SOAS Department of

Geography, University of London.

The software used for the analysis are: Arc/Info for Unix, Arc/Info for NT, and Erdas

Imagine 8.3.1 for the main analysis. Arc View 3.1 and Surfer version 6 were used for presentation.

4.4 Surface Analysis:

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is an ordered array of numbers that represents the spatial distribution of elevations above some arbitrary datum in the landscape

(Burrough, 1986). Figure (7) represents a DEM for the study area created from contour lines digitized from a topographic map. First a Triangular Irregular Network (TIN) was created from the contour lines. The TIN divides the surface into small adjacent non- overlapping triangular planes that capture the terrain characteristics. A DEM was derived from the TIN. Different types of hydrological information were derived from the DEM, these are: slopes, aspect, drainage network, and watersheds. Aspect is the down-slope direction from each cell to its neighbour. Furthermore, the DEM was used to eliminate the topographic effect in the TM images. The topographic effect is the difference in illumination due solely to the slope and aspect of terrain relative to the elevation and azimuth of the sun. The net result is an image with more evenly illuminated terrain (Erdas Imagine on-line help, 1997). Figure (7) below shows different derivatives that were created from the DEM.

Also, the DEM was used for visualisation purposes by creating a three-dimensional perspective view to help understand the nature of the topography of the area, the flow

31 directions of the wadis, and the pattern of irrigation. Figure (8) is a three dimensional representation of the study area.

32 Contours TIN Aspect

Drainage Network Shaded Relief DEM

Watershed Slope Topographically Corrected Image Figure 7. The DEM creation, and the different hydrological and topographical information that was derived from it.

33 Figur (8) Digital Elevation Model, Wadi Al Hayma

Metre

A 3-Dimensional View from the Southwest Corner of the study area, Wadi Al Hayma.

34 4.5. Method of Approach:

4.5.1 False Colour Composite:

In order to detect the change in irrigation, and hence water use pattern, two sets of T M images, acquired in dry winter season (23rd January 1986 and 13th January 1995)., were used It is assumed that during the dry winter season, all green cover in the wadis is irrigated cropping. The presence of vegetation in winter is used as an indicator of irrigation.

For visualisation purposes and to give a sense of the pattern of change in irrigation, false colour composite images were created and viewed for 1986 and 1995 (Figure 9). Band 2

(green band), band 3 (red band) and band 4 (Near Infrared (NIR)) were respectively assigned the blue, green and red colour guns of the display monitor.

Figure 9. False Colour Composite 1986 & 1995. Red : NIR. Green : Red band. Blue: Green band.

Because near infrared (band 4) is highly reflected by vegetation and the red (band 3) is highly absorbed by vegetation for photosynthesis process, vegetation appears red in this false colour composite images (Lillesand & Kiefer, 1994). False Colour Composite technique is a means to utilize the reflective characteristics of three bands and analyse the information for the three of them simultaneously. Vegetated areas are more

35 detectable in the False Colour Composites than looking at each single band individually.

Figure (10) shows the False Colour Composite Images (with NIR assigned to grren colour) draped on the DEM.

1986 1995

False Colour Composite:

RED: Red band. GREEN: NIR band. BLUE: Green band.

N

Figure 10. False colour composite images for 1986 & 95 draped on the DEM.

36 4.5.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI):

The NDVI is designed to detect vegetation, and simultaneously minimizes the effects of soil background brightness and atmospheric ÔnoiseÕ. It has the ability to eliminate topographic effects and variations in the sun illumination angle and other atmospheric elements such as haze (Lillesand & Kiefer, 1994; Idrisi manual, 1997). The Index is based on the spectral characteristics of the near infra red (NIR) and the red bands.

NDVI = (δNIR - δRED) / (δNIR + δRED)

Where δ = reflectance

Green vegetation has high NDVI values. The NDVI is commonly applied to humid tropical areas or to arid and semi-arid dry areas. In the dry areas soil moisture is very low, and vegetation can stand out clearly in the dry-soil background.

Since the study area of TaÕiz is classified as semi-arid area, and its topography is mountainous, it has been suggested that the use of NDVI is very appropriate to detect vegetation.

To detect the change in the extent of irrigated land in Wadi Al Hayma, between 1986 and

95, two NDVI images for 1986 and 95, were derived from TM Nearinfrared and Red bands using the above formula. The two NDVI images were then thresholded

(reclassified) to distinguish between vegetated and non-vegetated areas in each year.

37 Thresholding is a technique used to segment the input image into two categories, one exceeds the threshold and the other falls below the defined threshold (Lillesand & Keifer,

1994). Figure (11a) below shows the two derived NDVI images. The thresholded, reclassified, images are shown in Figure (11b).

1986 1995

Figure a.

Figure b.

Figure 11. NDVI images, light grey batches represent vegetation (a), and the thresholded (reclassified) NDVI showing cultivated areas only (b).

The reclassified NDVI images were then overlaid on top of one another and draped on the DEM as shown in Figure (12). The result allows the distinction between irrigated areas in each year. 38 39 1986 1995

N

Irrigated in 1986 Irrigated in 1995 Irrigated in 1986 & 95

Figure 12. The reclassified NDVI images for 1986 & 95 draped on the DEM. A northward shift in irrigation is noticeable.

40 4.5.2.1 Analysis of the Result:

The images show a dramatic shift in irrigation from the southern part of the wadi to the upper northern regions. The northwards shift has taken place since the groundwater aquifer in the southern part dried up. Farmers moved uphill searching for water bearing

Tawilah Sandstone soil (see Figure 3).

To get quantitative results areas irrigated in each year, 1986 and 1995, were calculated using the thresholded images and GIS facilities. The analysis shows an increase in the amount of irrigated area by approximately 64% between 1986 to 1995. This is shown

Change in Irrigated Area 1986-95

9.7 10 8 5.9 6 sq km 4 Irrigated Area 2 0 1986 1995

Figure 13. Irrigated areas in km2 1986-1995, calculated from TM images. in Figure (13).

Assuming that 80cm depth of irrigation water is applied in the dry season, the amount of water needed to irrigate the above calculated areas can be estimated as shown in Table

(2) below.

41 Year 1986 1995

Water needed 4,720,000 m3 7,760,000 m3

Table 2: The amount of irrigated water needed in Wadi Al Hayma 1986 & 1995.

The increase in the irrigated areas between 1986 and 1995 suggests that the drying up of the Lower Al Hayma can be attributed to unsustainable water pumping by the local farmers, as well as to the pumping of the water by the pipeline for the city supply

(Handley, 1999).

4.5.3 Land-use as an Indicator of Water-use:

Land use and the way that land is utilized is a good indicator of water use patterns. To estimate the total amount of water consumed/needed in the area, a land-use map for the larger Upper Wadi Rasyan catchment was made. The map was compiled from satellite imagery interpretation and field observations. The GIS work, the calculation statistics from the spatial data, and the map design was carried out by the author. The land-use map is shown in Appendix A, at the appendix at the end of this document.

4.5.4 Groundwater and aquifer modelling :

To understand the physical causes of the water crisis in Al Hayma and why the aquifer failed and dried up, one needs to understand the physical characteristics of the aquifer

42 and how it functions. Also, one needs to include the different interrelated parameters that have played a role in the lead-up to the current situation.

The modelled area, Wadi Al Hayma, was divided into a mesh of cells of 200 by 200 metres each. Each cell was assigned a unique ID number. Using the GIS facility in

ARCVIEW software and, by overlaying the grid on the image showing the difference in irrigation between 1986 and 1995, as shown in Figure (14) below, the irrigation properties in 1986 and 1995 for each cell were identified. The analysis is based on the principle that all water inputs to individual cells must equal the outputs plus the infiltration to the groundwater aquifer and, the evaporation plus the change in storage

(Handley, 1999). This could be expressed as the following water-balance equation:

Rainfall + Run-on = Outflow + Evaporation + Abstraction for City Supply ±

Change in storage.

Where run-on and outflow have surface and sub-surface components, and evaporation also includes evapotranspiration, change in storage is the net result of sun-surface inflow and outflow. The change in storage is measured through hydrographs.

A number of models have been developed to simulate the water balance equation so as to reproduce the historical trend (Handley, 1999). Table (3) summarises the functions, inputs and outputs for each of these models. Where satellite images were used it is highlighted.

43 44 Function Inputs Outputs Runoff Model - Daily data from 1983 to 1995. To generate runoff volumes Airport Daily Rainfall, Daily flows from tributaries and to Al Hayma. SCS Land Use Types flanks to be applied to central wadi course and edge areas of Al Hayma (as mm) Evaporation Model - Daily data from 1983 to 1995. To estimate the amount of Airport daily mean dry Net infiltration and abstraction water required by each crop and wet bulb for locations receiving central from abstraction above and temperatures, sunshine spates, flank spates and just beyond that provided by hours, Airport and rainfall for the appropriate rainfall and runoff and, where Usayfra wind run. z-d cropping pattern (m3 per 100m water input from the latter and crop heights. Output x 100m grid square per season. two exceeds demand, to from Runoff model. Dry season Oct-Feb, wet Mar- estimate the infiltration. Sept) Steady State Groundwater Flow Model (GWVistas/Modflow) 1976 pre-development calibration To match groundwater heads Aquifer geometry, Calibration of flows and heads in 1976 as an essentially pre- hydraulic conductivity, development steady-state subsurface tributary and condition and compare runoff outlet constant heads, indicated by the groundwater net recharge derived model with that by the runoff from evaporation model. model. Transient Water Balance Model a) To run a mean rainfall year Satellite image Calibration of hydrographs. (1987) five times, determined irrigation Assessment of flows. incrementing drawdowns to areas for 1986. Output examine whether the scenario from evaporation model being considered could for 1987. approach matching the observed hydrographs. Transient Water Balance Model b) To match the complete Satellite image Calibration of hydrographs. observed hydrograph record determined irrigation Assessment of flows. from 1983 to 1995 areas for 1986 and 1995. Output from evaporation model for 1983 to 1995. Recovery Model To predict how long it would Satellite image Predictive hydrograph take the aquifer to recover to determined irrigation approximate pre- areas for 1995. Output development levels if the city from evaporation model continued to abstract as in for 1987. 1996 and there was no irrigation.

Table 3: Summary description of the function, inputs and outputs of each of the models used by Handley. Satellite imagery usage is highlighted. Source: Handley (1999)

45 4.6 Results and Analysis:

Leggette et alÕs (1977;8-18) estimation of 8 Mm3/yr of water, to be abstracted to the city, as an effective end to irrigated farming, was considered a Ôreasonable objectiveÕ for abstraction from Wadi Al Hayma and Miqbab. The modelling carried out by Handley suggests that if the relatively undeveloped situation of 1976 is taken as a starting point, three sustainable yields of Al Hayma should be considered:

i) 2.7 to 1.7Mm3/yr if abstraction for the city is not to detract from agriculture, ii) 4.2 to 3.0 Mm3/yr if no outflow from Miqbaba is to occur, iii) 5.9 to3.8 Mm3/yr (that is 4.8 Mm3/yr ±20%) if irrigated farming were to cease.

The last option matches the impact assumed by Leggette et al., (1981) but is only 60% of their Ôreasonable objectiveÕ of 8 Mm3/yr.

Actually, farmers increased the irrigated area in Al Hayma after 1976. Figure (15) below demonstrates the abstraction for both irrigation and the city.

The modelling suggests it would take nine years for the Al Hayma basin to recover if abstraction for the city remained at the (low) 1995 level, and if irrigated agriculture ceased (Handley, 1999).

46 Abstractions from Al Hayma - Miqbaba Aquifer : Scenario 2

7,000,000

6,000,000 Agriculture City Supply

5,000,000

4,000,000

m3 / year 3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Figure 15. Abstraction from Al Hayma Ð Miqbaba Aquifer 1983-95. Source: Handley (1999b)

4.7 Conclusion:

The hydrological model derived by Handley (1999), provided with remotely sensed data and assisted by GIS, has shown that the consultants ÐLegette et al., (1977)- got their estimates wrong. Their estimation was comprised of:

• Wrong assumptions and false data for their modelling.

• Poor logic, since they stated that the total quantity available for export to the city

was 9 Mm3/yr ±20%. They proposed an abstraction of 10 Mm3/yr (of which 8

Mm3/yr from Al Hayma and Miqbaba). Common sense would suggest a maximum

total of 7 Mm3/yr from the whole area including . Al Hayma and Miqbaba.

47 • End of irrigation: it is not good assumption and politically inconceivable. The

farmers continued abstraction from the aquifer.

Although the city of TaÕiz abstracted less than the design capacity estimated by Legette et al., every year, however, in reality that proved to be too much. In other words, the aquifer did not have the estimated capacity.

48 CHAPTER V. ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL ENTITIES IN WADI AL HAYMA:

ADAPTATION TO WATER SCARCITY:

5.1 Coping Strategies:

In a social science study, one needs to consider the unit of analysis. For instance, the unit can be an individual, which is the domain of psychology. It can be a social group, and this is the domain of anthropology. It can also be a number of social groups together, and this is the domain of political science or political geography7. In this analysis two distinct social entities are present:

• The local tribal people of Wadi Al Hayma, who are basically farmers from

communities with centuries of experience of managing water.

• The government represented by the water authority and their WDM policies.

The reason for this distinction is that the two entities show different interests.

Water scarcity in Wadi Al Hayma is one of increasing severity. This implies that the number of available coping options decreases accordingly. Local people adopt various strategies in the face of increasing water scarcity. The main water-related events, stimulants, and local peoplesÕ responses, in other words Ôcoping strategiesÕ, are as follows:

7 Turton (1999), Personal e-mail dated 12 Jul 1999. 49 • International and cross-border migration and the Ôvirtual waterÕ resulted from it,

1975 - 1990

• Hydrological mission and investment in pumping equipment, 1976 - present.

• The Gulf War and more investment in pumping equipment, 1990 Ð 1991.

• Moving up the wadi to exploit sources, 1984 Ð present.

• Internal migration, 1985 Ð present.

• Resistance by local people and confrontation with Government.

5.1.1 Cross-border migration and Ôvirtual waterÕ:

Steffen (1979) estimated the private transfer of money to Yemen by emigrants in the year 1976/77 at 4.5 billion Y Rials ($1 billion). In the years that followed, it was estimated to be more than 5 billion Y Rials (Schoch, 1982). Most of the remittances were invested in constructions, such as house building and roads, in transportation and other facilities. Most of the emigrants were from the rural population. However, investment in agriculture did not get high priority at that time (Schoch, 1982). This is because: investment in well-pumps for irrigation was always a high risk, especially in mountain areas, since no ground-water surveys had been carried out which had guaranteed successful water yield. Also, because of the sharp decline of labour available for the labour-intesive rainwater harvesting technique for agriculture, due to labour migration.

50 A very interesting point mentioned by Schoch (1982) is that, Òof main importance are the investments in qat and imported consumer goods, including foodstuffs like meat, fruits, wheatÉetcÓ, which is a form of Ôvirtual waterÕ (Allan, 1997). Therefore, groundwater aquifers were maintained and kept in a steady state (i.e. increasing the options for local people). This is illustrated in Figure (16b) below as an upward shift in the line showing the relationship between water scarcity and the Ôrange coping strategiesÕ available (the red line). Figure (16b) is a modified version of Figure (16a). In

Figure (16b) the red line is for local people while the green one is for the government.

The Yemeni government, however, subsidized the food imports, which meant a loss of foreign currency in the form of import taxes, in addition to the inflation of the Yemeni

Rial. This loss is illustrated in Figure (16b), by a downward shift in the governments curve (the green line) indicating a decrease in the coping options available for the government. However, to achieve Ôfood securityÕ and Ôfood self-sufficiencyÕ, the

Yemeni government banned certain food imports, for example, fruit imports banned in

1983, and started to investigate the groundwater aquifer. This marked the start of the hydrological mission phase.

5.1.2 Hydrological Mission:

In 1976, investigations of the groundwater aquifers in the TaÕiz area carried out by the government, and the Al Hayma aquifer was proven to have significant potential8. The main objective of the investigations in Al Hayma was to supply the city of TaÕiz with

8 Handley (1999), Personal conversation. 51 water. The engineers and scientists had neglected to inform the farmers and stakeholders about the purpose of these investigations. Consequently, local people grew suspicious of government intentions. Also, the farmers started to become aware of the potential of the groundwater as a water source for dry winter irrigation. They reacted by drilling wells, and more investment went into agriculture to safeguard their land and water resources. Similar responses to the hydrological mission have been observed in the

SaÕdah area, northern Yemen (LichtenthŠler, 1999). This has led to the exploitation of groundwater and the exacerbation of the water scarcity situation, and hence local people have lost out on coping strategies. At the same time, although temporally, the hydrological mission raised the governmentÕs expectations and appeared to increase their coping options, as demonstrated in Figure (16b).

5.1.3 More Irrigated Qat :

One of the coping strategies adopted by local people in the face of water scarcity was increasing qat cultivation. Qat is a bush-like tree that produces a narcotic leaf widely used by Yemeni people as a stimulant. It grows successfully in altitudes of 1200 - 2400 meter above mean sea level, with annual average temperatures of 16-22 C., and between

400-2000 mm precipitation. It was brought to Yemen from Ethiopia in the first half of the 13th century AD.

The early 1970s witnessed an increase in qat cultivation in Yemen. This was not only because of its high returns, but also because it proved to be one of the better options during the drought years that started in 1967, and lasted for seven years (LichtenthŠler,

52 1992). Farmers, including those in Wadi Al Hayma, rely on qat cultivation as a major element in their livelihood and sustenance for the following reasons:

• Qat is a drought resistant tree and a hardy plant, which tends to be dormant in

periods of prolonged water shortage. Its water requirement is low compared to

other crops cultivated in the area.

• Harvesting can be controlled, and returns spread out over many months. Qat yields

after four years, and the leaves of the tree are picked twice every year. However,

the tree produces new leaves as soon as it receives water. Therefore, it allows the

farmer to exercise much more control over harvesting and marketing than with other

crops (ibid, 1992).

• Qat does not require high inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides. In fact, Yemeni

farmers do not use fertlizers for qat, since they believe that fertilizers spoil its taste

and lower its quality. Stories have it that even locusts do not touch the tree

(LichtenthŠler, 1992). Commercial pesticides are not used due to fears that it might

be harmful to health. Instead, qat trees are usually dusted with dust twice a year, 15

times a year in the case of grapes, to keep insects off.

• Qat grows in poor soils and it protects the soil from erosion.

• Qat can be interplanted with other crops in the terraces. In the TaÕiz area, qat is

occasionally interplanted with maize and sorghum. In addition, since the

government banned fruit imports in 1983, farmers have started planting fruit in qat

fields (LichtenthŠler, 1992; LichtenthŠler & Turton, 1999). Some Yemenis also 53 believe that mixing other crops and trees with qat helps minimize weeds, and

protects against erosion.

• Qat trees can be productive for up to fifty years. This adds to the economic value

of the tree. The net profit can be as high as 24 times that of sorghum and 3.5 times

that of coffee. Furthermore, the tree provides fodder for some animals, highly

valued firewood, and some shade in a country that has lost most of its forests.

• Qat is a very lucrative and valuable cash crop. It generates areas of employment for

a wide range of people in the rural population.

From the above points, one can conclude that qat and the revenues from it play an important role in rural development and infrastructure construction in Yemen

(LichtenthŠler, 1992). For instance, people in small villages situated on inaccessible mountain slopes, using hand tools, build roads which connect them to qat markets in order to sell their crops.

Furthermore, the actual water requirement and consumption of qat itself appears to be less than government official claim. This might be because of the fact that qat encourages production and consumption of local grains and vegetables. Additionally, since it is a perennial tree, qat protects the soil from erosion for other seasonal crops, such as vegetables. In other words, most of the water is consumed by the crops either interplanted with qat, or qat encourages their cultivation. For instance, in Wadi Al

54 Hayma it was observed that in winter, potatoes are interplanted with qat9. In the TaÕiz area, 12% of the irrigation water is used for qat, 30% for maize, 20% for sorghum/millet, and 8% for potatoes in the major wadis (UN/DDSMS, 1997: xix).

Most of the investments in agriculture were directed towards qat cultivation. As a result, 80-90% of new well drilling in the southern highlands of Yemen, including the study area) primarily has been carried out for qat irrigation (LichtenthŠler, 1992). The above details indicate how qat cultivation is considered a very viable livelihood coping strategy for the local people in Wadi Al Hayma. It demonstrates an increase in local peopleÕs coping strategies, depicted as an upward shift of the red line in Figure (16b).

However, this dramatic increase of groundwater-irrigated qat cultivation by local people was based on the assumption that there was an unlimited source of groundwater in the aquifer10. The increase in the extent of the irrigated area for qat cultivation in Al Hayma was not very welcome to the government, for whom Wadi Al Hayma was considered the promised future solution for the city of TaÕizÕ water crisis, as shown in Figure (16b)

If the government were to stop qat cultivation, however, suitable alternatives should be found/created, before taking any action, which would substitute for this poor urban peopleÕs very vital source of sustenance. Whatever the alternative is, it should be applied gradually with carefully formulated long term planning.

5.1.4 Water Pipeline to the City:

9 Handley 1999, personal conversation

55 The number of wells drilled by the NWSA to supply the city with water has exceeded thirty (Ward and Moench, upub, cited in Handley, 1999). A pipeline has been built to transport the water directly to the urban area of TaÕiz. The authority managed to convince the shaikh of Lower Al Hayma, the late Shaikh Sadiq, to agree to the drilling of deeper wells. Out of the deal, the shaikh got three deeper drilled wells for his family.

The NWSA wells reached a maximum depth of 100 to 120m.

The pumping for the city started in 1982, and four years later local peopleÕs shallow dug wells, in Lower Al Hayma, had almost dried up. The water level in the aquifer was dramatically depleted because of the unsustainable pumping of water exceeding the sustainable yield of the aquifer. In 1987, the new wells drilled by NWSA, as part of an

Ôemergency drilling campaignÕ, reached a maximum depth of up to 500m. The government would not allow local farmers to deepen their wells, yet not surprisingly shaikh Sadiq managed to get one of these new deeper wells (Handley, 1999).

The laying out of the pipeline for the city of TaÕiz water supply has had a negative impact on the water resources in Wadi Al Hayma and the local farmers. This implies a decrease in the coping options for the local people as shown Figure (16b).

However, by ÔcapturingÕ the water resources and ÔreallocatingÕ them from the agricultural sector to industry, the government thought that would increase the options available for itself, Figure (16b). Nevertheless, with the adopted Ôallocative efficiencyÕ

10 Allan (1999) Personal conversation 56 or the Ômore jobs per drop optionÕ strategy (Allan, 1999) there are always some

Ôpolitical pricesÕ that have to be paid.

5.1.5 The Gulf War 1990-1991:

The position adopted by the Yemeni government through its support of Iraq in the Gulf

War had a big negative impact on the economy of Yemen. Most of the Yemeni people who used to work in the oil-rich Gulf countries were made redundant from their jobs and were forced to return to Yemen. This resulted in the loss of remittances and the devaluation of the Yemeni Rial. As a consequence, many of the traders in Yemen were forced out of business. Both the returnees and the ex-traders turned to the only other source of livelihood available Ð irrigated agriculture. The effect of this has been the redirection of significant amounts of capital into investment in pumping equipment.

This in turn had a very detrimental effect on the groundwater aquifer and helped in its depletion. Resultantly the coping strategies for both the local people in Wadi Al Hayma and for the government were reduced (see Figure (16b)).

5.1.6 Shift to the Upper Al Hayma:

As a consequence of the depletion of the groundwater aquifer and the drying up of their shallow wells, farmers in the Lower Al Hayma have shifted their irrigated farming up the wadi to explore the water-bearing sandstone, the Tawilah Sandstone, to the north of the graben (see Figure 3).

57 The shift can be clearly detected in the Landsat TM images (Figure 11 ). In the images it is evident that most fields irrigated in 1986 have been abandoned, with a few exceptions, in 1995. Due to the Lower Al Hayma experience, the shaikhs of the Upper Wadi Al

Hayma have refused to negotiate any proposed well drilling by the government for the city supply in their territories. This has encouraged farming practices in the area which result in intensification and extensification of agriculture in the Upper Al Hayma.

58 5.1.7 Internal Migration:

As a result the drying up of farmersÕ wells in Lower Wadi Al Hayma, some of the farmers, especially young men, abandoned farming and went to work in the city of TaÕiz or in other urban centers. The demise of irrigated farming in the area was a Ôpushing factorÕ for local farmers to migrate to other areas, and urban centers to look for alternative livelihoods and other sources of sustenance. The majority of the immigrants work in big factories in the city as labour.

5.1.8 Resistance by Local People and Confrontation with the government:

Based on their experience with what has happened in Lower Wadi Al Hayma, local people have lost trust in the government and its promises. Also, some have lost trust in their shaikhs. This is accompanied by a clear realisation that they are losing out on a very vital natural resource - water - which is ÔcapturedÕ by the government by force.

People in the upper Wadi Al Hayma started to become very suspicious of any drilling in the area. In June 1992, some locals from the Habir area, north Al Hayma, disconnected one of the governmentÕs wells. The government reacted by bringing twenty trucks of soldiers, from TaÕiz military camp, to the area on standby and helicopters were brought in for reconnaissance. The situation was resolved by a forced agreement of co-operation by the locals (Handley, 1999).

Further drilling in Habir was again met by resistance from local people in 1993. All the shaikhs in the TaÕiz area were called to attend the presidentÕs speech in SanÕa, in which

59 he threatened the shaikhs that, either through use of traditional customs or by violence they would have to co-operate with the drilling in the area (ibid, 1999).

In April 1995, six exploratory wells were started in Habir, and local people pushed the drilling workers off the site. Three shaikhs were imprisoned because they did not want to give promises of co-operation to the government, as they knew of their peoplesÕ mistrust of the government. They were released after they had been forced to sign an agreement of co-operation, and a government compensation package for the locals was included in the agreement (ibid, 1999). In January 1996, the government failed to pay part of the compensation, the drilling was stopped by local people and the violence started again. Two women were seriously injured when one of the soldiers opened fire at the protesters.

Other areas in TaÕiz started to resist government well drilling. For instance in 1995, a drilling was halted by 5,000 armed men from Wadi Warazan who suspected it was for abstracting water for the city of TaÕiz. The actual purpose of the drilling was to collect information for a dam feasibility study. The situation was resolved after the governor of

TaÕiz had ensured that no drilling for the city supply would be carried out and, no dam would be built (ibid, 1999).

5.2 The Pattern:

The diagram in Figure (16b) shows that the overall patterns of change of available

Ôcoping strategiesÕ for local people and the government mirror-image each other.

60 Increases in the range of local peopleÕs coping strategies are considered destructive and minimizing by the government, and vice-verse. This indicates the following:

• That there are different contradicting perceptions about water and its use, the

governmentÕs perception and local peopleÕs perception.

• There are different interests for the government, which tries to meet the required

demand of the urban area, and the local farmers who struggle to adapt to water

scarcity in the area.

• There is a huge cleavage between the two social entities.

• The government and the local people work in isolation of each other.

• Yemen represents a case of a society that experiences severe Ôsecond order

scarcityÕ, that is, Ôadaptive capacityÕ is lackingÕ, as well as Ôfirst order scarcityÕ

61 Figure b. Figure a.

Water Scarcity Range of coping strategies

Local People Government

Original line depicting water scarcity & coping strategies relationship Range of Available Coping Strategies

Water Scarcity

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1975 1976 1982 1990 1995 TIME

1 Migration & Ôvirtual waterÕ 1975 5 The Gulf War 1990

2 Hydrological missions 1976 6 Shift upwards the Wadi

3 Pumps for more qat 7 Resistance & confrontation Water pipe to TaÕiz 1982 4

Figure 16. The modified relationship between water scarcity & coping strategies. Figure (a) shows the original relationship. Figure (b) shows how some events have modified this relationship in the case of Wadi Al Hayma. The red line is for local people, the green one is for the government. Note: This is not a quantitative graph. It is not to scale. The two axises show relative ranges of abstract (unquantifiable) variables. The main purpose of this diagram is to show the mirrored symmetrical perceptions of the two social entities involved in the crisis, as perceived by the author.

62 5.3 Conclusion:

So far we have discussed three points. Firstly, we have examined the model through which the water crisis in the TaÕiz area can be analyzed. The model suggests that if a society has sufficient Ôadaptive capacityÕ in the face of water scarcity, water resources reconstruction can be achieved. The model is shown as a monument of which the two main supporting pillars are the Ôsocial componentÕ, what is inside the hearts and minds of local people, and the Ôstructural componentÕ, institutions and government, of the adaptive capacity (Figure 1). The existence of ÔfeedbackÕ and ÔsupportÕ between these two components is an important factor. Secondly, the importance of accurate estimates of water resources, and how they are useful in strategic planning has been examined. In

Chapter 4, the potentials of remote sensing and GIS techniques to provide such estimates were explored. Thirdly, in Chapter 5, the social dynamics of the two main social entities forming the main actors, involved in water scarcity in the area, local people and the government, and how their responses mirror-imaged each other and involved very different impacts and reactions (Figure 16b), were reviewed.

It is evident that because of the socio-political environment that exists in Wadi Al

Hayma and the TaÕiz area, water Ôresource reconstructionÕ is unlikely to take place unless the socio-political structure changes. In this chapter, the social and institutional reasons that have led the situation in Wadi Al Hayma to reach the position that they have will be examined.

63 5.3.1 What is Missing?

5.3.1.1 Lack of ÔFeedbackÕ and ÔSupportÕ:

As mentioned above, Figure (16b) indicates that there is a cleavage between the local people and the government. This cleavage has led to the absence of balance between the two main components of the Ôadaptive capacityÕ of the whole society. This cleavage/gap, in the context of Yemen, is caused by the absence of the ÔfeedbackÕ and

ÔsupportÕ shown in Figure (1). The absence of feedback and support has caused the two components of Ôadaptive capacityÕ to be developed in isolation from each other

(Turton, 1999a).

5.3.1.2 Legitimacy Crisis:

ÔSupportÕ is the backing up of the regime by the governed. It is either given or withheld as a result of some actions (ibid,1999a). Support for a government is highly dependent on the governmentÕs legitimacy. Governments gain legitimacy, for instance, through a general election (given legitimacy), or otherwise by trying to strengthen the feedback process of their actions. In the context of this study, it is obvious that the lack of legitimacy is evident. The authorities do not have enough support to implement such costly and socially stressful strategies. In other words, the government faces a legitimacy crisis as well as water crisis. By paying the shaikh of Lower Al Hayma, shaikh Sadiq, with some wells helping him achieve Ôresource captureÕ, the authority tried

64 to buy his support and thereby attempted to make its actions and strategies legitimate.

However, the actions had led to the reverse result.

Furthermore, perceptions are of vital importance for the support and gaining of legitimacy for the government. If the regime and the governed share the same perceptions about the water resource use, including the presence of other factors, the regime might then gain some support. The main facto, which needs to be present, is the

ÔfeedbackÕ process from the government. To gain support for its water management policy the government should provide some ÔfeedbackÕ to the governed. This could be in the form of sharing information about water resources with local people, and through adapting and enhancing local strategies. Techniques such as GIS and the state of the art remote sensing technology are ways of capturing accurate information quickly, and on such information, decision-makers can base their decisions and can formulate water strategies. Therefore, if used correctly, it can be of great support to the Ôstructural componentÕ of the Ôadaptive capacityÕ. However, if such information is not shared with local people, and local people are not clearly informed, in the absence of feedback, of the water resource condition, these valuable data will not be of any use and, end up in a pile of files in a government office.

The lack of feedback is evident in the case of Wadi Al Hayma. Local people were not informed about the water resource conditions at all. Also, they were not informed about the purpose of the drilling. Moreover, obviously local people did not know, and do not know, that Ôan effective endÕ to irrigated agriculture in Wadi Al Hayma was a

Ôreasonable objectiveÕ for abstraction from the area to the city of TaÕiz (Leggette et al.,

65 1977). This lack of feedback by the government can be understood in terms of

MigdalÕs (1988) Ôstrong society and week statesÕ analysis, that is, where state institutions are not strong enough to ensure that sharing information with local societies will not cause political and social stresses. The situation in Wadi Al Hayma, and the governmentÕs circulation of misinformation, clearly indicates Yemen as typifying this concept of a Ôstrong society and weak stateÕ.

66 CHAPTER VI. CONCLUSIONS.

Social frameworks are research tools to measure and assess complex social issues. They are offered to simplify otherwise complex social issues. The social dynamics of water scarcity are exceptionally complex. Various societies have different abilities to cope with water scarcity. Ohlsson (1999) calls this ability the Ôadaptive capacityÕ of a society.

The social framework, model, provided by Turton (1999a) is used to analyse the water crisis in the TaÕiz area, and the social implications are examined in this framework. The model suggests water resource reconstruction can be achieved by Water Demand

Management (WDM) strategy, if the society has enough Ôadaptive capacityÕ. The model identifies the two components of a societyÕs Ôadaptive capacityÕ, the structural component and the Ôsocial componentÕ. It emphasises that for WDM to be effective, both social and structural components/aspects should be considered and have to be balanced with each other. Therefore, there should be feedback and support between the two components.

The study has shown that for the concept of Ôadaptive capacityÕ to be applied effectively, one has to consider the scale at which a society is identified. Local people in Wadi Al Hayma, as a small social entity, adapt differently to the government, while the shaikh in Lower Al Hayma, through means of resource capture, has adapted differently to the local people. Therefore, it is a matter of social integrity, which is a function of societal perceptions.

67 Furthermore, different reports assessing the water resources of the TaÕiz area have been produced, however, they are flawed due to a lack of hydrological data. Analyses and recommendations based on flawed hydrological data can have detrimental effects on the water resources.

Furthermore, the study shows that remote sensing and GIS techniques can provide quick accurate data on which water management strategies can be based. In other words, they can improve the quality and the make up of the Ôstructural componentÕ of the

Ôadaptive capacityÕ. Such information should be shared with local societies through a feedback process.

Wadi Al Hayma has evinced that where there is a lack of feedback from the government to local people, circumstances will not improve where the community, as in the TaÕiz area does not trust a non-legitimate government.

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74 APPENDICES:

75