Working Paper Working Narratives of scarcity: understanding the ‘global resource grab’ Ian Scoones, Rebecca Smalley, Ruth Hall, Dzodzi Tsikata February 2014 Working Paper 076 www.future-agricultures.org Abstract Global resource scarcity has become a central policy concern, with predictions of rising populations, natural resource depletion and hunger. Resulting narratives of scarcity drive behaviour and justify actions to harness resources considered ‘under-utilised’, leading to contestations over rights and entitlements and producing new scarcities. Yet scarcity is contingent, contextual and above all political. We present an analysis of three framings – absolute scarcity, relative scarcity and political scarcity – associated with the intellectual traditions of Malthus, Ricardo and Marx, respectively. A review of 134 global and Africa-specific policy and related sources produced over the past six years demonstrates how diverse framings of scarcity – what it is, its causes and what is to be done – are evident in competing narratives that animate debates about the future of food and farming in Africa and globally. We argue that current mainstream narratives emphasise absolute and relative scarcity, while ignoring political scarcity. We suggest a more political framing of scarcity requires paying attention to how resources are distributed between different needs and uses, and so different people and social classes. This requires, we argue, a policy emphasis for land and resource issues on rights and access, and distributional issues, centred on equity and justice. Working Paper 076 2 www.future-agricultures.org 1. Introduction agribusiness and civil society material concerning agriculture, natural resources, food availability and the global land rush? We considered material that addresses Understandings of what has been called the ‘global these issues at a global level, as well as material that resource grab’ – the large-scale acquisition of land and focuses on sub-Saharan Africa. We systematically selected other resources by governments, agribusiness companies material that has been widely cited in academic and grey and financiers often in overseas territories – have often literature on the land rush since 2007, as well as material been cast in terms of ‘scarcity’. A number of overlapping from organisations, donors and agribusinesses that have narratives are at play. Commodities, be they food, feed been influential in wider debates about land and or fuel, are deemed scarce, and therefore sought in areas agriculture, especially in Africa2. Our sources are where land and water in particular are seen to be categorised into five groups: relatively abundant. This involves taking advantage of global comparative advantages of demand and supply • International policymakers, advisers and to realise a ‘win-win’ situation, in which commodities are donors (e.g. World Bank, FAO, IFPRI, the UK supplied to those who need them while those who have think tank Foresight); the resources to produce them profit as well. A related narrative sees rising scarcities as a threat to peace. As • African regional policymakers, advisers and the world runs out of resources, increasing competition donors (e.g. African Development Bank, potentially leads to processes of exclusion, conflict and NEPAD, the Southern African Development the undermining of development. Some narratives also Community); suggest that if environmental limits are exceeded, dangers may arise, as we transgress earth system • Private investors, asset management firms boundaries. and public-sector investment arms (e.g. Chayton Capital, Rabobank, International What does the deployment of the term scarcity imply? Finance Corporation); How should we understand it? And what narratives arise from these diverse understandings? In this paper, we • Agribusiness (e.g. Syngenta, Cargill, Illovo explore of how scarcity is manufactured in policy debates; Sugar); and by who, to what ends, and involving what forms of knowledge politics. Notions of ‘scarcity’ are deployed as a • Civil society and NGOs, especially on ‘land deliberate political strategy by different groups (Hildyard grabs’ (e.g. Oxfam, ActionAid, GRAIN, African 2010; Mehta 2010a; 2001; Xenos 1989; Daly 1974). For Biodiversity Network). example, the concept of scarcity is strategically deployed within neoclassical economics to justify property rights The material was mostly textual, such as reports and regimes (Mehta 2010b). Claims of current or imminent web pages, with some video interviews (see Appendix). scarcity have been used to justify appropriation and This was a qualitative analysis involving a close reading dispossession of resources (McCarthy and Wolford 2011), of the texts, looking for discourses of scarcity and related or to support repressive policies such as population narratives as they are revealed through storylines, control (Hartmann 2010). Pointing out the constructed metaphors and omissions (Keeley and Scoones 2003; and political nature of scarcity, however, is not a call to Forsyth 2003). To help understand the authors’ underlying relativism – ‘real’, material scarcities clearly exist – but attitudes towards scarcity, we looked for key words and an acceptance that meanings and interpretations are phrases that signify particular positions, such as ‘yield co-constructed in particular policy settings, in arenas gap’ and ‘limits’. The textual material amounts to of power and contestation. There are winners and losers thousands of pages, reflecting the explosion of policy from different policy narratives, as they have material and campaign literature on the subject. effects, and shape outcomes in struggles over resources. Scarcity narratives do not merely describe but justify This paper is divided into four parts. Following an changes in access to and control over resources, in ways introduction to the ‘land rush’ context since 2007-2008, that might reduce but also reallocate scarcities across especially in Africa, the paper moves to a review of some regions and populations. It is for this reason that a deeper of the foundational literatures on the concept of scarcity, look at the narratives of scarcity currently being deployed and identifies three ‘framings’ of scarcity that each in policy arenas is important. contribute to different degrees to the policy narratives identified. Next, the paper analyses how ideas of scarcity This paper examines these narratives of scarcity are represented in the majority of sources, and the through an analysis of 134 policy sources produced since processes through which ‘scarcity’ is constructed in these 2007, with a particular focus on Africa (see Appendix)1. mainstream narratives. The final section of the paper The aim is to interrogate the assumptions and analyse offers a critical assessment of the mainstream narratives the positioning of these narratives, as a way of exploring that we uncovered, highlighting the gaps and silences, the framing and response to assumed resource scarcity. as well as the emergence of some alternative narratives. Our content analysis was guided by the question: what In conclusion, the paper argues for a greater emphasis framings of scarcity are visible in policy, investor, on the political dimensions of scarcity. Working Paper 076 3 www.future-agricultures.org 2. The land rush context Widespread degradation and deepening scarcity of land and water resources have placed a number of key food production systems around the globe The land rush sparked by the global financial, food at risk, posing a profound challenge to the task and fuel crises of 2007-2008 occurred in a context shaped of feeding a world population expected to reach by cycles of land rushes in Africa – first in the colonial 9 billion people by 2050. (FAO, 2011c: para. 1) period when Africa was partitioned by global powers, then in the 1980s with far-reaching economic From this period there has been an explosion in what liberalisation policies, including land market liberalisation some term ‘land grabs’ – investments in large-scale and the passage of investment codes targeted at commercial farms – often linked to ‘water grabs’ to promoting foreign direct investment. guarantee irrigated production. Such investments have often been justified in terms of ‘scarcity’, with overseas These cycles of land acquisitions have established investments focused on stable, secure and sustainable various models of large-scale commercial farming by food and fuel supplies to meet demands at home. Such transnational corporations for export commodity investments have involved both food crop and biofuel production alongside the dominant systems of production, and have occurred on a large scale, although smallholder agriculture across Africa (White et al. 2012). the extent of functioning investments is disputed3. A Since the 1980s, these commercialisation processes have large proportion of these are in Africa, where the debate prompted land concentration and the individualisation over the pros and cons has been intense (Deininger and of land ownership. Even in countries dominated by Byerlee 2011). peasant agriculture, there is increasing dispossession of small farmers for a range of land uses – notably mining, Globally, the policy debate has thus intensified, with agriculture and tourism. These changes have also much discussion about the drivers and consequences of intensified the commodification of hitherto non-market the rush for scarce resources. The European Commissions’ land transactions, tenure insecurity and