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Human and Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first Century

by Richard E. Benedick

Abstract: have put pressure on their natural surroundings throughout history. Yet the world is now facing truly global environmental challenges and rapid in the final half of the twentieth century is a critical component to understanding these phenomena. In his article, Ambassador Richard Benedick examines a host of and their complex interlinkages with three representative environmental issue areas: forests, freshwater resources, and . These connections raise the impor- tance of meeting the commitments made at the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development. Benedick maintains that investments in measures to slow the rate of population growth-and thereby to reach a stable population earlier, and at lower levels, than under current trends-would significantly reinforce efforts to address the environmental challenges of the century ahead, and considerably lower the cost of such efforts.

INTRODUCTION: PEOPLE AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT

hen historians in the far distant future look back upon the tumultuous twentieth century, they will likely judge the most outstanding feature to be the extraordinary increase in human numbers that has occurred W during this relatively short time period. It took the entire history of humanity—tens of thousands of years—for the world’s population to reach one billion, which is now estimated to have occurred around 1804. It was more than a century later that the second billion was reached. But, it took only twelve years—from 1987 to 1999—for the most recent billion, the sixth, to be added. The world has never seen anything like the steep popula- tion growth of the twentieth century, with most of it concentrated during the last fifty years. That human populations can exert strains upon their natural surrounding is nothing new. However, from the dawn of history until about thirty years ago, the impacts of human activities were primarily localized. Early regional civilizations—Mesopotamia in the Near East, Mohenjo Daro in Southwest , the Mayans of Central America, and possibly the Anasazi in the southwest of what is now the United States—collapsed due to a likely combination

Ambassador Benedick, formerly Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, was responsible for population and environmental policies. He was chief U.S. negotiator for the historic 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, and author of Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet (Harvard University Press, revised edition 1998). Currently, he is Deputy Director at Battelle Washington Operations, Visiting Fellow at Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, and President of the National Council for Science and the Environment. This article reprinted with permission from Rolf Kreibich and Udo E. Simonis, eds. Globaler Wandel-Global Change: Ursachenkomplexe und Lösungsansätze. [Global Transformation-Global Change: Causal Structures, Indicative Solutions] Berlin: Verlag, 2000.

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of and scarcity or depletion of arable extent already upon us, measured and tracked by scien- land and supply. In some places, archaeologists tists. And, these come in an era have found evidence of adverse environmental effects when human numbers are moving rapidly upward into caused by and by gradual salinization of uncharted territory. irrigated land. The final blow may have been a regional All of these global environmental trends are, in some climate change: a succession of unusual dry years, prob- ways, touched by demographic dynamics: population ably ascribed by local spiritual leaders to angry or size, population growth rates, population densities, and capricious gods. Many centuries before the Aswan High migration of peoples. Some environmental problems are , Herodotus wrote of salinization in the Delta. influenced more directly by population, some less—even Much later, rapid industrialization in and North acknowledging that there are such mediating factors as America was accompanied by severe local of income levels, consumption patterns, technological air and water. structure, and economic and political institutions. Be- Environmental stress has thus been a continuing cause of these intervening parameters, it is often difficult factor throughout . It is fair to say, how- to establish with scientific precision clear correlations ever, that at the close of the twentieth century, the six between population pressures and environmental deg- billion inhabitants of planet find themselves threat- radation. Nevertheless, it is hard to disagree with the ened by environmental dangers that would have been conclusion of a recent study that “the least likely theory unimaginable to our 1.65 billion forefathers at the be- is that there are no relationships at all.”1 ginning of the century. The industrial, agricultural, and Many scientists are beginning to express concern energy policies that produced enormous improvements about the extent of the planet’s capacity, as reflected in in standards of living during the last half-century are the functioning of its natural cycles and , to now beginning to have profound environmental impacts support the unprecedented numbers of people and their that can adversely affect the interactive natural planetary growing demands.2 Can enough food and energy be cycles upon which all life depends. For the first time, we provided—not to mention jobs, education, care, confront a new generation of environmental problems and disposal—to accommodate these billions with- that are global in nature such as: out causing some irreversible that could imperil the whole human experiment? • Changing climate that could bring both and As one example, the fragile layer of ozone molecules flooding, altered rainfall patterns and loss of agri- scattered throughout the stratosphere is vital to the sur- cultural land, sea-level rise, severe storms, and the vival of life on Earth. The example of Antarctica offers spread of disease; us a sobering lesson: the sudden and totally unexpected • Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer that protects depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer over the south- , plants, and animals from potentially fatal ern continent (the so-called “ozone hole”) demonstrates ultraviolet radiation; that when the atmosphere is perturbed, nature may not • Loss of biological diversity due to mass of provide convenient early warning signals to moderate animal and plant species that represent an irreplace- our activities in time. About twenty-five years ago, the able genetic library; cumulating effects of man-made chlorofluorocarbons • Spread of arid lands, , and soil (CFCs)—an “ideal” chemical whose usefulness in thou- on a global scale, affecting the livelihood of hun- sands of products and processes made it almost dreds of millions of already poor people; synonymous with modern standards of living—began • Pollution of marine and freshwaters that combine with slowly to lift the quantity of chlorine in the atmosphere to imperil a vital food source; from its natural level of 0.6 parts per billion (ppb). Con- • Destruction of forests at a rate never experienced in centrations increased gradually, to 0.9, 1.4, then 1.9 the history of the planet; and, ppb—yet the ozone layer remained unaffected. Only • Worldwide diffusion of hazardous substances , includ- when chlorine concentrations passed the minute but ing the persistent organic pollutants that may, even unforeseen threshold of two parts per billion did the in minute quantities and over long time periods, ozone layer over Antarctica suddenly collapse, to the adversely affect the metabolism of humans and ani- surprise and alarm of the scientific . Not- mals. withstanding the successful global controls imposed by the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent revisions, These new environmental issues are not the premo- the long atmospheric lifetime of CFCs means that it nitions of modern Cassandras. They are to a significant will take about seventy years for the ozone layer world-

6 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROJECT REPORT, ISSUE 6 (SUMMER 2000) Richard E. Benedick . Human Population Featuresand Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first Century wide to recover to natural levels.3 that under the low variant assumptions, population is By their very nature, the risks of other environmen- peaking and will begin a slow decline to eventual stabi- tal thresholds are not quantifiable. But they are not zero. lization around seven billion.) The most likely global In this article, I would like population in 2030 is 8.1 to explore population-environ- billion—over two billion ment interlinkages in three more people than at present. representative areas: forests, “ n 1950, there were fewer There are three aspects freshwater, and climate change. than half as many Afri- of these demographic devel- Following this, I will examine I opments that I would like to the most recent comprehensive cans as Europeans; now, highlight because of their rel- effort by the international com- evance to the environment. munity to address population despite the AIDS epidemic, First, population growth has issues, as manifested in the been, and will continue to twenty-year Cairo Programme there are nearly three times be, strongly skewed. Over of Action negotiated at the ninety percent of the popu- 1994 International Conference as many. lation increase during the last on Population and Develop- half-century occurred in the ment (ICPD). But before this, poorer regions of the world. I will look more closely in the following section at some The pace accelerated to ninety-seven percent in the dimensions of the population nexus. 1990s, and for the coming fifty years, it will be virtually 100 percent. Just the additions to ’s population in the last five years—eighty million people—was equiva- THE POPULATION CENTURY lent to the total population of Germany. This phenomenon has brought about a significant Some time during October 1999, the world’s popu- redistribution of the Earth’s population. Between 1950 lation passed six billion souls. Since the middle of the and 2000, the populations in developing regions grew century, when there had been 2.5 billion people, the by over three billion (which was equivalent to total number of human beings on planet Earth had grown by in 1960). Whereas in 1950, the in- an additional 3.5 billion. Within the previous two de- dustrialized countries accounted for about one-third of cades alone, the increase was equivalent to the entire the total, their proportion dropped below twenty per- population of the world at the beginning of the twenti- cent by century’s end. According to the most likely U.N. eth century. Never in human history have populations estimate, by 2050 the developing nations will comprise grown so rapidly and in such dimensions.4 To be sure, eighty percent of the global population. Most of these the annual growth rate peaked at two percent in 1965- countries already face problems of health and deterio- 70, and the annual increments reached a height of nearly rating environments, with large numbers living in ninety million in 1985-90. Global population growth ecologically fragile areas (e.g., drylands, hillsides, savan- is currently estimated at 1.3 percent, representing an nas, low-lying deltas), and now confronting combined annual addition of just under eighty million. environmental impacts brought about by both Using sophisticated demographic tools and assump- and by the early stages of industrialization. tions about the continuing rate of fertility decline, the Within the developing world itself there are also currently estimates that in fifty more significant differences in growth patterns. While Asia’s years, by 2050, the world’s population will probably lie growth rates are slowing, it was and will remain the larg- within a range of 7.3 billion (low variant) to 10.7 bil- est region in total numbers, with about sixty percent of lion (high variant), with the 8.9 billion medium variant the global population. The fastest growing—and poor- considered as “most likely.” The difference between the est—region is , with its proportion projected to low and high variants depends largely on the degree to grow from less than nine percent in 1950 to nearly 20 which families in developing countries freely decide to percent of the much larger world total in 2050. In 1950, reduce their number of pregnancies. there were fewer than half as many Africans as Europe- Looking only thirty years into the future, the ranges ans; now, despite the AIDS epidemic, there are nearly are closer, and the estimates more accurate, because three times as many. Most industrialized countries cur- tomorrow’s parents have already been born. The low rently have stable, or even declining populations, the variant is 7.4 billion, the high variant 8.8 billion. (Note main exceptions being the United States and Canada

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROJECT REPORT, ISSUE 6 (SUMMER 2000) 7 Features

due to immigration and higher growth rates. sheds. Increased overcrowding will bring greater health A surprising note on aging: while there has been problems and higher vulnerability to epidemics and much written about the increase in numbers of older natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, people in the industrialized world, looking ahead, the storms, and flooding. Issues of waste disposal—air and prospect is quite different. Currently, the over-sixty and solid —will assume gigantic population in the South amounts to about 170 million, proportions. It is also worth mentioning that dwell- or only forty-three percent of this age category world- ers consume more energy and natural resources per capita wide. However, during the next fifty years, the number than their country cousins. is projected to surge more than nine-fold, to 1.6 billion, The third and final dimension of the population which will then comprise eighty percent of the world’s picture is the phenomenon of demographic momentum. total elderly population. For industrialized countries, the In developing nations, an unusually large proportion of expected growth is from 226 million in 2000 to 376 the population is under fifteen years of age—in dozens million in 2050. of countries they exceed forty percent of the total. This A second outstanding demographic development of means that even if future families have fewer children, our era is the accelerated concentration of populations there is a continuing growth factor because the number in urban areas. In 1950, just over one third of the world’s of people that are entering into their reproductive years population were city (new parents) is greater dwellers, a total of 860 than the number that are million. By the close of leaving those years. Thus, the century, this number “ he industrial, agricultural, populations continue to had grown to just under grow significantly for three billion, forty-eight Tand energy policies that pro- many decades even after percent of total popula- fertility rates begin to de- tion. But in just the duced enormous improvements . Hence, there is a coming fifteen years, it is in standards of living during the built-in growth momen- expected that four bil- tum. lion people will live in last half-century are now begin- The current total fer- , or fifty-five per- tility rate (TFR, or cent of the global ning to have profound environ- average number of chil- population. dren per female) in most Again, most of this mental impacts that can of Africa and the Middle growth in East is well over five, will occur in the South, adversely affect the interactive which, combined with with masses fleeing rural high proportions of poverty brought about natural planetary cycles upon young people, explains by scarcity of arable land the continuing rapid and water, growing land which all life depends.” population growth pro- degradation, and aridity. jected for these areas. In By 2015, nearly three contrast, some develop- billion city dwellers in the poorer countries will consti- ing countries with slow growth now have reached TFRs tute three-fourths of the world’s urban population. of under three (e.g., , Brazil, and Indonesia), or Perhaps the most striking aspect of the urbanization even less than two (e.g., , Thailand). However, as trend is the rise of “,” agglomerations of over long as TFR exceeds 2.1 (representing one female child ten million people—a phenomenon new to the planet. per woman, with allowance for some deaths before the In 1950, there was only one , New York City. female children themselves, reach reproductive age), a By 2015, it is anticipated that there will be twenty-six, nation’s population will continue to grow.5 of which twenty-two will be in the South. It is difficult Because of the factor of demographic momentum, to conceive of Lagos holding nearly twenty-five million for most developing countries, the greatest increase in num- inhabitants, or Dhaka with over nineteen million. bers actually lies ahead, not in the past. The following Such urban concentrations have significant environ- figures are based on the current U.N. medium variant mental implications. In many cases, cities will encroach (“most likely”) estimates published in 1999. Only if the on farmland or ecologically sensitive or water- fertility decline is steeper than is considered most prob-

8 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROJECT REPORT, ISSUE 6 (SUMMER 2000) Richard E. Benedick . Human Population Featuresand Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first Century able based on recent experience, or if mortality rates and/ DWINDLING FORESTS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD or emigration are higher than expected, will the num- bers for 2050 turn out to be below the current medium The forests of our planet have been basic to the de- variant estimate. velopment of human civilization. They are a With the exceptions of China, India, and Indone- that is unique in its combination of multifaceted utility sia (which are shown here because of their size), in all of and easy renewability, through planting. Wood prod- these countries and in many more, the greatest growth ucts are a major element in the global economy, in numbers will probably occur in the coming fifty years. fundamental for human settlements in housing, furnish- This is so, despite the fact that they have all witnessed a ings, fuel, paper and packaging, and for such non-wood doubling, tripling, or even quadrupling of their num- products as berries, nuts, and medicinal herbs. For ex- bers within the previous fifty years. By 2050, the number ample, nine of the ten most-prescribed pharmaceuticals of Afghans (and Sudanese, and Yemenis) will each ex- in the United States derive from forest plants and ani- ceed the number of Frenchmen; there will be more mals. Although wood has been replaced for many Tanzanians than Germans. traditional uses by , oil, steel, and , wood In other words, the largest increases are still to come. and wood products still rank third in value among the Most of these countries are already in political and/or world’s commodities, trailing only behind oil and natu- ecologically precarious situations. Yet political leaders, ral gas.6 North and South, do not act as if they are aware of what Complementing their direct economic benefits are lies ahead demographically. Against this background, I the irreplaceable ecological functions of the world’s for- will now examine three specific environmental issues in ests. Forests are essential for biological diversity. Tropical terms of their relationship to population dynamics. forests alone shelter at least half of the world’s known

Chart 1. Population Growth: Past, Present, and Projected Future

(population in millions) 1950 2000 2050 (est.) Trouble Spots Afghanistan 9 23 61 Angola 4 13 37 Dem. Rep. 12 52 160 Congo 5 20 55 Water scarce 18 63 169 3 22 54 9 29 59 Yemen 4 18 59 Tropical Colombia 13 42 72 Guatemala 3 11 27 21 76 131 Tanzania 8 34 81 Giants China 555 1278 1478 India 368 1014 1529 Indonesia 80 212 312 Nigeria 31 112 244 40 156 345

Source: U.N. Population Division, 1999.

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species.7 Through the evapotranspiration cycle between is also the poorest and most densely populated. In South soil, trees, and atmosphere, forests are a major determi- Asia, the U.N. Food and Organization nant of local climate and their diminution could bring warned that conservation efforts “will be nullified and on drought. An estimated seventy-five to ninety-five per- in places reversed, unless...accompanied by a reduction cent of rainfall in the Congo basin is recycled in the rate of growth of population.”11 through forests.8 Forests protect and enrich soils and Many analysts are convinced that the greatest fu- watersheds, providing erosion control against landslides ture threat to forests stems from the imperative to provide and flooding, enhancing water quality, and regulating food for the immense numbers of people on the hori- the quantity of water. As a major sink for carbon diox- zon. Judging from the recent half-century, there will be ide, the world’s forests help to offset anthropogenic pressures to clear more forests to provide land for crops emissions from burning fossil fuel, and thereby miti- and/or . When are constructed to furnish gate potential climate change. Not to be ignored are the needed water for , forests are often flooded and recreational, esthetic, and spiritual aspects of forests. are displaced to highlands, where the destruc- More forests have been cleared since 1850 than in tion cycle continues in order to make room for all of previous history, and the rates of destruction have agricultural land. Forests have also fallen victim to gov- been highest in recent decades. Although forest cover in ernment resettlement programs in response to local the industrialized world is now expanding, this has been population pressures (e.g., in Indonesia, Brazil, and the more than offset by destruction of forests in the devel- Philippines). Poverty and inequitable land tenure force oping nations. Asia and Africa, regions with the greatest landless workers to seek a livelihood by clearing forest population growth, have lost an estimated sixty-five to lands. seventy percent of their original forest cover.9 It has been estimated that by 1995, 1.7 billion people Global wood consumption has tripled during the in forty countries already were, because of inadequate twentieth century—roughly paralleling growth in hu- forest cover, vulnerable to shortages of fuel wood and to man numbers. But interestingly, forest loss is not a growing impacts of flooding and erosion. In just thirty problem caused by profligate consumers in the North. years, by 2025, this number is projected to rise to 4.6 Industrialized countries, largely with managed forests billion people in fifty-three countries. In many areas, and programs, produce seventy-five per- including , Kenya, and Pakistan, it is anticipated cent of the total industrial hardwood, while tropical that severe forest loss will combine with increased water forests account for only fifteen percent. Thus, the North scarcity over this period to compound the threats to the produces eighty percent of the world’s wood used for well-being of hundreds of millions of people.12 paper and pulp. In contrast, developing countries pro- duce ninety percent of wood used for household consumption as fuel and charcoal. In the ten develop- GROWING ing nations that lost the most forest in the period 1990-1995, all but two consumed over ninety percent Water gives an illusion of since it covers of their output domestically, including Brazil, Congo, about two thirds of our planet’s surface. The reality, Indonesia, Mexico, Sudan, and Thailand. Rising demand however, is that only 2.5 percent consists of the fresh- for wood, especially for fuel, in , China, In- water needed by human beings. Of this fraction, dia, , Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam, sixty-nine percent is locked into permanent cover poses increasing dangers to the viability of their forests.10 or . A further thirty percent consists of fresh Because of the complexities involved in human use , much of which is inaccessible, unusable, of forests, it has been difficult to provide definitive proof or only obtained at great expense of energy. Only three- of the link between population growth and forest de- tenths of one percent of total freshwater can truly be struction. Nevertheless, a recent study of 111 countries considered as renewable: the water from rainfall, seep- by an international research consortium concluded that ing into the soils to nourish plant and tree growth and approximately half of the deforestation over the course replenish underground , collecting in and of human history could be explained by changes in popu- , flowing into the , and evaporating into the lation. The has noted that Central Africa, atmosphere in a natural hydrological cycle that will pro- during the 1980s, experienced the world’s second high- duce more .13 est rate of deforestation while having the lowest per capita Humanity uses freshwater for drinking and , income and the highest population growth rate. Haiti, for carrying away wastes (e.g., from urban areas), for the most severely deforested nation in Central America, industrial purposes, but most of all—more than two-

10 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROJECT REPORT, ISSUE 6 (SUMMER 2000) Richard E. Benedick . Human Population Featuresand Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first Century thirds—for irrigating land to satisfy the world’s grow- Beyond the strictly utilitarian demands on freshwa- ing demand for food. In the past half-century, there has ter, scientists and environmentalists make a strong case been a virtual explosion of large-scale irrigation projects, for a holistic concept of freshwater as part of a network mostly concentrated in the developing world. The num- of interconnected ecological systems. Although econo- ber of large dams (defined as over fifteen meters in height) mists cannot assign a market price, freshwater ecosystems grew from 5,000 in 1950 to approximately 40,000 to- perform numerous vital functions: carrying nutrients day.14 Most of the expansion in irrigation has been into the sea that sustain marine life; providing concentrated in Asia. China, India, Indonesia, and Pa- and spawning grounds for a diversity of animal and plant kistan, for example, species; replenishing soil depend on irrigated fertility; and diluting land for more than half “ wastes. And, as with for- of their domestic food oor quality ests, the possess harvest.15 affects the health of hundreds aesthetic and inspira- Current trends in P tional qualities that have water usage are disturb- of millions of people in the devel- enriched the human ex- ing. Growth in irrigated perience. land in recent decades oping world and is a major factor A symbol of the con- has not kept pace with flict between preserving population growth. in infant and child mortality. an and con- The watersheds of some ventional economic of the largest Asian riv- development is the ers—the Indus, , , and Yellow Okavango Delta in Botswana, the largest in the world. rivers—have been damaged by deforestation.16 Many The Okavango nourishes Africa’s biggest oasis, a water- of the world’s major rivers—including, in addition to ing ground for millions of animals fleeing the Kalahari the above-mentioned, the Nile, Colorado, Chao Phraya Valley during the dry season. About 100,000 local fish- (Thailand), and Amu Darya (Central Asia), are over- ers and herders also derive their livelihood from the used to such a degree that little or none of their flow Okavango. Development planners, advising neighbor- ever reaches the sea. Indeed the has run ing Namibia, proposed a system of dams and dredging dry in every year throughout the 1990s.17 to divert the river for multiple purposes, including irri- Worldwide, cropland is being lost to cities, indus- gation, a rapidly growing , and diamond mine try, erosion, flooding, and to salinization—the slowly operations. A consortium of conservationists and local cumulating curse that accompanies big irrigation villagers was able to block the project and ecotourism schemes, described as “one of the gravest threats to irri- has been promoted as an alternative revenue source. But gated agriculture and .”18 Increasing reliance the demands, here and elsewhere, will inevitably grow.21 on nonrenewable groundwater is resulting in falling Looking into the coming century, it should be pos- water tables being recorded on every continent, includ- sible to meet the growing water needs for personal use, ing in the United States. It is estimated that India’s water for municipalities, and for industries, assuming there is withdrawals are already twice the rate of natural ground- more intensive conservation measures, more realistic water recharging—and a half-billion more Indians are water pricing, and some luck with technological inno- on the way.19 vation. However, there will be growing with Poor quality drinking water affects the health of hun- the needs of agriculture, which could lead to loss of food dreds of millions of people in the developing world and production. is a major factor in infant and child mortality. The num- The population-food-land equation is compounded ber of people without access to safe drinking water has by humans seeking ever greater supplies of water—un- risen by the end of the twentieth century to over 1.2 der the U.N.’s most likely variant, two billion additional billion, roughly one person in four in the poorer coun- people in the next thirty years. Because of the sheer vol- tries.20 The growth in the developing world of large ume of water required for irrigation, population growth cities with over one million inhabitants—from thirty- is the critical factor, translated into demand for food, four in 1950 to an estimated 400 by 2015—imposes which in turn implies more irrigated land. It is clear added strains on water supplies and leads to rainwater that the risks are growing that more people will face the being flushed away rather than recharging underground prospect of water scarcity and, therefore, food scarcity. aquifers by natural seepage through the soil. As a leading water resource scholar recently observed:

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROJECT REPORT, ISSUE 6 (SUMMER 2000) 11 Features

“Water scarcity is now the single biggest threat to food The future will need to see different and more effi- production.”22 cient management of the planet’s scarce freshwater The poor are particularly vulnerable. Researchers resources, combined with greater sensitivity to the in- have noted that approximately 470 million people in terconnected ecological systems—water, land, and the developing world were affected by water stress or forests—that provide the context for our civilization and scarcity in 1995. They estimate that this number could well-being. The of irrigation water could rise more than six-fold in only thirty years, to over three be enhanced by greater conservation and by various tech- billion by 2025—nearly forty percent of the world’s nical improvements. Measures could include drip population.23 People in affected countries would be irrigation and high efficiency sprinklers; rational pric- subject to chronic shortages as not enough water would ing and water allocation planning; crop selectivity and be available to satisfy all the needs of cities, industries, better cultivation practices; more accurate weather fore- and irrigated agriculture. casting linked to water distribution; and of With water scarcity affecting harvests, poor coun- urban water for irrigation use. If not discouraged by tries will need to import increased quantities of grain. political or emotional considerations, further advances Egypt, for example, which used to be self-sufficient, now in biogenetics could create food crop varieties that are depends on imports for forty percent of its grain con- resistant to drought, salts, and pests. Desalinization of sumption. If the situation worsens, economic seawater might provide unlimited supplies if problems development will be set back and serious environmen- of cost, energy, and transport can be solved. tal degradation may occur. The combination of , If population growth could be slowed to the low rising prices for imported grain, and large urban popu- variant path of the UN estimates, with only one billion lations has the potential to destabilize societies in many additional people, the task of marshalling parts of the world. to meet rising demands while preserving the planet’s As recently as twenty to thirty years ago, shortages associated ecosystems would be considerably more man- of water were only occasional, scattered occurrences. ageable. But clouding the future of is the Now, the problem is becoming pervasive. Water scar- wild card of climate change, which itself will be influ- city on such a large scale, affecting hundreds of millions enced by population. Potential climate change can greatly of people, is a uniquely modern phenomenon. Security complicate issues of planning, timing, and location of concerns mount as nations compete for increasingly long-term investments in water management. scarce water to meet the needs of their people. Many of the great river systems provide water to countries with rapidly rising populations, and in most cases the great- GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE est numbers are, as we have seen above (see Chart 1), still to come, such as with the Tigris-Euphrates River Sophisticated models based on paleological evidence, (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq); the Ganges River (India and and on theories of physical, chemical, and biological Bangladesh); and the Nile River (Sudan, Ethiopia, and interactions, predict that continued unchecked emissions Egypt). In 1985, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, at that time, of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources (chiefly Foreign Minister of Egypt, warned that “the next in carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion and destruc- our region will be over the waters of the Nile, not poli- tion of forests, but also methane and other gases) could tics.”24 precipitate a global change in the climate that has ac- Many agricultural specialists believe that the future companied the history of human habitation. In actuality, of the will depend on irrigation, since concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have only an assured water supply will justify farmers’ large increased by about a third since the start of the Indus- investments in seeds, , , and technolo- trial Revolution, and (like population numbers) they gies to increase land productivity. But, how will this are moving up into uncharted territory. There is scien- happen? Most potential major dam sites have already tific consensus that this growth cannot continue been exploited, at great social and economic cost. In indefinitely without throwing the Earth’s climate out of any event, the long-term viability of such massive projects the equilibrium that has prevailed for millennia – nota- is questionable. Rising costs (including compensation bly, since the dawn of agriculture.26 for displaced persons), greater awareness of ecological Great uncertainties, however, surround the issue of consequences, , and waterlogging and climate change. Since there is no prior experience with are diminishing the returns from mammoth irrigation this phenomenon, the prospective consequences are schemes.25 largely conjectural. There is no indication as to what

12 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROJECT REPORT, ISSUE 6 (SUMMER 2000) Richard E. Benedick . Human Population Featuresand Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first Century level of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmo- billion people in the South are yet to be supplied with sphere could prove dangerous, nor how severe or electricity, quite apart from the greater numbers that lie differentiated the possible impacts might be in different ahead. Unprecedented urbanization, combined with an regions of the planet. For example, intensified hurri- aging population (more households) will further con- canes and storms are expected, and rainfall and monsoon tribute to higher per capita energy consumption. patterns would almost surely shift. In some regions there Intensive industrialization in the currently less devel- could be more rainfall, in others less. Presently unpro- oped nations will also add to total energy demand. ductive areas (e.g., Carbon dioxide emissions Siberia) might become will rise as additional land more suitable for agricul- is cleared for agriculture ture. Elsewhere, there “ entral Africa, during the and fuelwood, and more could be flooding, ero- 1980s, experienced the methane will be released sion, drought, and the C from paddies and other spread of arid lands. Riv- world’s second highest rate of forms of agricultural pro- ers might change their duction, as well as from courses. More carbon deforestation while having the expanding livestock herds. dioxide could prove con- It is true that per capita ducive to higher crop lowest per capita income and the emissions of carbon diox- yields and the expansion ide from fossil fuel of agriculture. On the highest population growth rate. combustion in the cur- other hand, there might rently less developed be an increase in weeds, nations average only about disease, and pests. Higher sea levels and resultant salin- one-fifth that of the North. However, emissions of total ization of coastal farmlands and ecosystems are among greenhouse gases from the South are augmented by the the most probable consequences. For all of these pos- massive clearing of forests and to acquire ever sible impacts, however, the extent and timing are unclear. more firewood and land for crops and settlements, a The continuing growth in anthropogenic green- factor as yet difficult to measure but nevertheless sig- house gas emissions might be mitigated to some degree, nificant. Some estimates place them at about one-fourth although not indefinitely, by offsetting natural forces of all anthropogenic emissions.27 Moreover, developing such as greater carbon absorption in the oceans or in- countries’ understandable priority for , creasing cloud cover. But because the gases have such means that their future per capita emissions will increase long atmospheric lifetimes, any major change in the great even as their population growth begins to taper off.28 planetary forces that determine long-term climate— In fact, developing nations’ emissions are already stratospheric windstreams, currents, polar ice rapidly overtaking those of the North. Even consider- cover, or the hydrological cycle—could have portentous ing only carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel and potentially irreversible results. Crossing an invis- combustion (and ignoring those from deforestation and ible and unpredictable threshold would be dangerous. burning), the South’s portion of the global to- The links between population and climate change tal has jumped in only twelve years from twenty-nine are subtle. Historically, most carbon dioxide emissions percent in 1985 to forty-two percent in 1997. China’s stem from the great economic expansion of the indus- emissions are already second only to the United States, trialized nations of the North, fueled largely by energy and the ground under 1.3 billion Chinese contains one from coal and oil during the last century. These nations third of the world’s known coal reserves. India’s emis- have relatively small populations and, at present, virtu- sions have surged nearly fifty percent since 1990 and ally no population growth. But, they also have very high are now higher than Germany’s. South Korea has sur- per capita emissions. However, climate change is decid- passed Italy, and Mexico’s emissions are almost as large edly not—as an Indian diplomat once remarked to me as those of France.29 Propelled by rapid population in the context of the ozone negotiations— “rich man’s growth and expanding industrialization, the South’s problem: rich man’s solution.” emissions will probably exceed those of the North in Demographic trends in the developing world can two to three decades. affect in several ways. More Unfortunately, efforts under the United Nations to energy will be consumed by large and growing popula- curb rising worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases have tions to enhance their standard of living. Even now, two met with little success to date. Beginning at Chantilly,

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Virginia, in early 1991, 180 nations have been negotiat- CONTAINING POPULATION GROWTH: ing in vain to establish a realistic approach to the problem THE CAIRO SOLUTION of climate change. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in June 1992 at the U.N. H.L. Mencken, the satirical American social com- Conference on Environment and Development in Rio mentator of the 1930s, has been quoted as stating that de Janeiro and entered into force two-and-a-half years for every difficult problem, there is a simple solution— later. This was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, agreed and it is usually wrong. The phenomenon of population upon in Japan in December 1997. The protocol, how- growth, as we have witnessed it in the twentieth cen- ever, has thus far, only been ratified by nineteen small tury, is surely one of the most difficult and complex of developing countries and none of the major emitting problems. countries. Its prospects for entering into force are ques- Birth rates in most countries of the South have be- tionable given continuing deep differences among the gun to decline during the past decade. But, in the face negotiating parties on the modalities for achieving emis- of the United Nations’ medium variant projection for sions reductions.30 2050, the “most likely” outcome, are they declining rap- During the negotiations for both of these treaties, idly enough? Is nearly nine billion people in the next population was an unwelcome guest. There was no overt fifty years—and still rising, possibly to eleven or twelve discussion of the linkages. Because of the inability of billion desirable? Is it inevitable? industrialized countries to undertake effective steps to Can we lower birth rates sufficiently to achieve the cut emissions, key developing nations have refused to 7.3 billion low variant—which, incidentally, would even consider commitments to rein in their own rap- imply a future stabilization of global population at some- idly rising emissions. Unfortunately, the populations of what below this level, just a billion or so more than at the South, most already living in ecologically fragile ar- present? Is “development the best contraceptive,” as pro- eas, are also the most vulnerable to possible impacts of pagandists for the South trumpeted for many years as climate change, especially altered monsoon patterns, an argument for more, and ever more, foreign aid? Will flooding, drought, aridity, sea-level rise, and severe the free market and less interference pro- storms. vide the solution? Is “democratization” the key? Is it Climate change and population growth share the simply a matter of inundating the South with condoms characteristic of being long-term in their effects. Halt- and contraceptive pills? As the experience of popula- ing population growth will not by itself prevent climate tion programs over the last thirty years has demonstrated, change. Especially in the near term, a slower rise in popu- there are no simple answers. We will have to do many lation will barely affect total emissions, which will be things simultaneously. largely influenced by the nature of industrialization, At Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the U.N. Conference on energy use, and consumption patterns in the South. Still Environment and Development, the largest world sum- less, will it affect the level of atmospheric carbon diox- mit in history, culminated over two years of negotiations ide concentrations during the coming century, as it is on an agenda for the future. Among the many impor- mainly a product of previous emissions of the long-lived tant documents, resolutions, declarations, and gases? aspirations at this monumental conference, one historic However, in the longer term, the effects of slowing feature stands out. The leaders of nearly all the world’s population growth—and of an earlier stabilization of nations established for the first time the political legiti- global population—would cumulate and significantly macy of the concept, : to conserve improve the chances of mitigating climate change. The and manage the planet’s resources in a manner that can further into the future one looks, the greater the differ- improve the conditions of today’s populations without ence between smaller (low variant) and larger (high foreclosing options for the well-being of the generations variant) population sizes could make in the ability of still to come. growing economies to achieve the substantial future A logical follow-up to the rather profound and cutbacks in carbon dioxide emissions that are necessary many-faceted implications of the Rio conference was in order to avoid dangerous levels of atmospheric con- the convening in Cairo, two years later, of the 1994 In- centrations. Slower population growth would also relieve ternational Conference on Population and Development pressures on fragile ecosystems—freshwater, forests, (ICPD). Again, following two years of preparatory ne- highlands, watersheds, and arid regions—and thus, im- gotiations, the world’s at Cairo affirmed prove the chances for adaptation to long-term climate that early stabilization of the Earth’s human population changes.31 would be crucial for attaining sustainable development.

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In particular, they agreed on a “Cairo Programme of ric, the realities were different as the century drew to a Action.”32 close. About one third of women of reproductive age in This carefully negotiated document, a twenty-year developing nations—approximately 350 million—have program to the year 2015, was both more specific and no access to information and services. more practical than the voluminous 800-page “Agenda Existing health programs were strained to meet the needs 21” that was adopted at Rio to encourage long-term of the increasing numbers of women entering their re- actions to promote sus- productive years. There are tainable development. approximately one billion Under the Cairo “ he populations of the adolescents—more than Programme, govern- ever before in history— ments accepted specific [ ]South, most already liv- who, largely because of quantitative and qualita- T religious and cultural mores, tive twenty-year targets ing in ecologically fragile areas, are hypocritically kept un- which, if achieved, educated about these might enable the world are also the most vulnerable to subjects, even though most to achieve population are sexually active. Thus, stabilization at just over possible impacts of climate they are particularly suscep- seven billion, rather than tible to sexually transmitted facing in mid-century a change, especially altered mon- diseases and unwanted early still-growing population pregnancies, which are in- of nine billion or even soon patterns, flooding, drought, imical to the health of both eleven billion. aridity, sea-level rise, and severe the young mothers and their The ICPD delibera- infants. And, finally, in most tions were influenced by storms. countries social equity for three decades of interna- women remains a cruel fic- tional experience that tion, and they are still clearly demonstrated that family planning programs denied equal access to education, health care, and job could succeed in countries widely differing in their cul- opportunities. tures, political and economic systems, and levels of Against this background, high-level representatives development—from to , from to Viet- of 179 governments at Cairo, under the sensitive lead- nam, and from Sri Lanka to Brazil. The key to significant ership of the conference secretary general Dr. Nafis Sadik, lowering of birth rates was the presence of certain en- Executive Director of the United Nations Population abling conditions: when girls and women enjoyed decent Fund, agreed on several quantitative targets to be health care and access to family planning methods and achieved in the ensuing two decades.33 These targets advice; when most girls received at least a primary edu- included: cation; when women had better economic opportunities and social status; when infant mortality was low; when • universal access by 2015 to the full range of “repro- adolescent child-bearing declined; when marriage was ductive health” services, covering family planning, delayed to a later age; and, when births were spaced more maternal health, and prevention and treatment of widely. Each of these factors reinforces the others, in a sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV/AIDS; cumulative effect. Perhaps most important, experience • universal primary education by 2015 for all girls worldwide showed that most women, if given the choice and boys; and the means, would have fewer children than their • specified, significant reductions by 2015 in mortal- mothers did. ity rates for infants, children, and mothers; and, For over twenty years, since the first world confer- • financial targets. ence on population in 1974 in Bucharest, governments had largely paid lip service (and then only after strenu- In addition, the Cairo Programme of Action iter- ous negotiations) to the concept that all couples and ated qualitative goals, or aspirations, which were just as individuals have a basic right to decide freely and re- carefully negotiated as the quantitative targets. These sponsibly the number, spacing, and timing of their included: increased access by young women to higher children—and to have the information, education, and education (beyond primary school); greater attention to means to do so. But, despite two decades of noble rheto- adolescents’ reproductive health needs; the elimination

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of violence against women; broad-based measures to foreign donors, in particular, were far behind the needed ensure gender equity and equality; and the empower- pace. In 1997, only $1.7 billion had been raised, mak- ment of women in the job market and in the ing it highly unlikely that the donors would reach their development process. $5.7 billion target for 2000.35 With the exception of a The ICPD did not adopt or recommend demo- handful of nations (Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, graphic targets, such as specific reductions in birth rates Norway, and Sweden), aid-malaise appears to have taken or family size, since experience in some countries, nota- its toll on the health, education, and women’s programs bly India and China, had shown that such targets could recommended by the ICPD. To place the sums in per- lead to human rights abuses by overzealous administra- spective, the $17.5 billion global target for 2000 amounts tors. Instead, a consistent theme throughout the Cairo to less than one week of the world’s expenditures on Programme of Action was the emphasis on personal armaments.36 choice and on the quality of reproductive health and family planning services. Underlying the ICPD approach is the assumption CONCLUSION: UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD that creating suitable conditions will lead women—and their menfolk—to make the “right” choices in terms of It is clear that in the course of the new century, the birth spacing and family size. As discussed above, expe- human population will move into a zone—eight to rience has showed that birth rates can indeed decline twelve billion—which many analysts predict could ex- under certain circumstances. What remains an open ceed the Earth’s supportive capacity.37 The difference question after Cairo, however, is whether they can fall between the 7.3 billion United Nations low variant and fast enough and far enough to make a difference, or the 10.7 billion high variant for 2050 is equivalent to whether the total fertility rate might stall at three or even the total population of the world as recently as 1966. 2.5 children per woman. Were this to occur at anything That is quite a difference. above a TFR of 2.1 (the “replacement level of fertility”), There is no question that improving standards of population numbers would continue to climb to new living for the current poor of the world, plus providing heights, albeit more slowly. for the billions still to come, will increase global de- Unfortunately, follow-up negotiations during 1999, mand for food, water, energy, wood, housing, , to evaluate progress under the program, revealed back- and disposal of wastes. Even if the interrelationships sliding by some governments and sadly familiar between population and the ecological support systems controversies over issues of cultural and religious sensi- of the planet are not yet established with statistical cer- tivity, ranging from acknowledgment of adolescent tainty, it behooves us to act with prudence: to err on the sexuality and ensuring safe abortion (where legal) to the side of caution in both our population and our envi- status and rights of women in general. Five years after ronmental policies. Cairo, the trends were not encouraging: continued dis- Investments in measures to slow the rate of popula- crimination and violence against girls and women; tion growth—and thereby to reach a stable population hundreds of millions of couples still lacking access to earlier, and at lower levels, than under current trends— family planning services; HIV/AIDS spreading more would significantly reinforce efforts to address the rapidly than anticipated; tens of thousands of women environmental challenges of the century ahead, and con- still dying due to unsafe abortions; and, only limited siderably lower the cost of such efforts. We need to progress in reducing infant, child, and maternal mor- proceed on several fronts simultaneously, including: tality.34 Equally discouraging was the failure of governments • achieving the health, education, and gender equity to come up with the financial resources that had been goals of the ICPD Programme of Action; estimated at Cairo as essential to implement the pro- • reducing wasteful life-styles and consumption; gram. The ICPD, after hard negotiation, had calculated • investing in technology to facilitate new energy that a total of $17.5 billion would be required by the forms and less resource-intensive industrial and ag- year 2000, and $21.7 billion by 2015, to achieve the ricultural production; and, quantitative targets enumerated above. It was agreed that • adapting our political and economic institutions to two-thirds of these amounts would be raised by the de- the future, making them more responsive, more hu- veloping countries themselves, while the donor com- mane, and more focused on the long-term munity would furnish the remaining one-third. perspective rather than on tomorrow’s stock market The latest available data, however, revealed that the results or next year’s elections.

16 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROJECT REPORT, ISSUE 6 (SUMMER 2000) Richard E. Benedick . Human Population Featuresand Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first Century

Seven years ago, the officers of fifty-eight national mine the future of our species. It is not merely a techni- academies of science met at a worldwide “Science Sum- cal problem of feeding the teeming billions. We must mit” in New Delhi. They issued a warning that is relevant define our vision of the future: an Earth of humans and to our current concerns. The scientific leaders (or edible seaweed) without the , with- out the great animals? Decisions made now will be “... expressed a sense of urgent concern about critical. The central issue is the quality of life: how men the expansion of the world’s population and con- and women of the future will be able to live, their op- cluded that if current predictions of population tions and their trade-offs. Will it be a life of dignity, growth prove accurate and patterns of human activ- security, and beauty? ity on the planet remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent irreversible degradation of the and contin- REFERENCES ued poverty for much of the world. ... The academies believe that ultimate success in Ashford, Lori S. New Perspectives on Population: Lessons dealing with global social, economic, and environ- from Cairo. Washington, DC: Population Reference mental problems cannot be achieved without a stable Bureau, 1995. world population. The goal should be to reach within the lifetime of our chil- Benedick, Richard E. Global Climate Change—The In- dren.”38 ternational Response. Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin Paper, FS II 97-401, 1997. The stable population goal of the national academies ______. Ozone Diplomacy—New Directions in Safe- is equivalent to the U.N. low variant estimate for 2050, guarding the Planet (rev. ed.). Cambridge, MA and which is also the objective of the ICPD’s Cairo London: Harvard University Press, 1998. Programme of Action. We are, clearly, not on that path. The interactions between human activities and the ______. “Contrasting Approaches: The Ozone Layer, Earth’s natural systems in the century ahead will deter- Climate Change, and Resolving the Kyoto Dilemma,”

NOTES

1 O’Neill et.al., 1998, emphasis added. 20 Watson, et.al. 1998. 2 Cohen 1995, Watson, et.al. 1998. 21 Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman 1997; Postel 1997. 3 Benedick 1998. 22 Postel 1999:6. 4 Demographic data throughout this article come from: 23 Ibid,128-132; Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman 1997. United Nations Population Division 1999 and, for urban data, 24 Gleick 1994. ibid., 1998. 25 Postel 1999:60-64. 5 United Nations 1999:70-72. 26 Benedick 1997; 2000. 6 Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman 1999:18-19. 27 Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman 1999:23. 7 Ibid, 22. 28 Meyerson 1998. 8 Ibid, 19. 29 CDIAC 1999. 9 Ibid, 25-27. 30 Benedick 2000. 10 Ibid, 9,34-37. 31 Meyerson 1998; Bongaarts et.al. 1997; O’Neill et.al. 11 Ibid, 32-33,56. 1998. 12 Ibid, 9,49-51. 32 Ashford 1995; UNFPA 1999. 13 Shiklomanov 1993. 33 UNFPA 1999. 14 Postel 1999:81. 34 Ibid. 15 Ibid, 41. 35 Ibid. 16 Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman 1999:21. 36 UNFPA 1997. 17 Postel 1999:65-73. 37 Cohen 1995. 18 Ibid, 109. 38 National Academy of Sciences 1993. 19 Ibid,73-80; United Nations 1999:28.

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In Global Biogeochemical Cycles in the Climate System, New York: United Nations Population Fund, 1997. E-D Schulze, et al, eds. Jena: Max Planck Institute for ______. The State of the World Population 1999: Six Biogeochemistry (forthcoming). Billion, A Time for Choice. New York: United Nations Bongaarts, John, Brian C. O’Neill, and Stuart R.Gaffin. Population Fund, 1999. “Global Warming Policy: Population Left Out in the United Nations Population Division. World Urbaniza- Cold.” Environment 39:9 (November 1997): 40-41. tion Prospects, The 1996 Revision. New York: United Cohen, Joel E. How Many People Can the Earth Support? Nations, 1998. New York: W.W. Norton, 1995. ______. World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revi- Engelman, Robert. Profiles in Carbon: An Update on sion. New York: United Nations, 1999. Population, Consumption, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions. Watson, Robert, et.al., eds. Protecting Our Planet—Se- Washington, DC: Population Action International, curing Our Future. Washington, DC: UN Environment 1998. Programme, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Ad- Gardner-Outlaw, Tom and Robert Engelman. Sustain- ministration, World Bank, 1998. ing Water, Easing Scarcity: A Second Update. Washington, DC: Population Action International, 1997. ______. Forest Futures: Population, Consumption, and Wood Resources. Washington, DC: Population Action ECSP-FORUM International, 1999. The Environmental Change and Security Project’s Gleick, Peter H. “Water, War, and Peace in the Middle E-Mail Forum for Environment,Population, East.” Environment 36:3 (April 1994): 6-42 pp. and Security Issues ______. The World’s Water, 1998-1999. Washington, DC: Island Press, 1998. The Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP) is pleased to announce its new e-mail fo- Meyerson, Frederick A.B. “Population, Carbon Emis- rum for environment, population, and security sions, and Global Warming: The Forgotten Relationship issues—ECSP-FORUM. This forum, which oper- at Kyoto.” Population and Development Review, 24:1 ates via e-mail, serves as a means for practitioners, (March 1998): 115-130. scholars, and policymakers to participate in a dia- National Academy of Sciences. Population Summit of the logue with others in the community. The purpose World’s Scientific Academies. Washington, DC: The Na- of ECSP-FORUM is to provide a forum for dis- tional Academy Press, 1993. cussing relevant issues and research, posting current policy questions, and listings relevant policy, schol- O’Neill, Brian C., F. Landis MacKellar, and Wolfgang arly, and teaching resources. Accessible from the Lutz. Population and Climate Change. Cambridge: Cam- ECSP Web site or by e-mail, it is a convenient and bridge University Press, 1998. resourceful tool for all interested in the topics of Postel, Sandra. Last Oasis (rev. ed.). New York and Lon- environment, population, and security. don: W.W.Norton/Worldwatch, 1997. To subscribe to ECSP-FORUM, send an email to ______. Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last? [email protected] and: New York and London: W.W.Norton/Worldwatch, 1999. 1) Leave the subject heading blank Shiklomanov, I. World Freshwater Resources, Water in 2) In the text box type sub ECSP-FORUM your Crisis: A Guide to the World’s Freshwater Resources, ed. name. Peter H. Gleick. New York: Oxford University Press, For example, sub ECSP-FORUM Jane Doe 1993. For more information, please visit our website at United Nations Population Fund. Coming Up Short: http://ecsp.si.edu/listserv. Struggling to Implement the Cairo Programme of Action.

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