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What Would Thomas Malthus Tell Us in the 21St Century? Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Assessment Modeling from an International Development Perspective

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What Would Thomas Malthus Tell Us in the 21St Century? Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Assessment Modeling from an International Development Perspective What would Thomas Malthus tell us in the 21st Century? Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Assessment Modeling from an International Development Perspective Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm AOSC/ENCE/ESSIC/JGCRI UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND Famous Quotes “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain The water-energy-food challenge is already present and very real “Environmental Security”: an ideal ground for research and applicaon of IAM ▪ Increase in food production required to feed a world of 8 Food Security billion by 2030, 9 billion by 2050 ▪ Increased dependence on food trade exposes countries to water stress impacts abroad ▪ Trade-offs between water and energy including integrated Energy Security management of hydro and other energy sources ▪ Regional cooperation needed to optimize hydropower in conjunction with other water uses ▪ Increased water demand from growing cities Water Security ▪ Growing numbers of people and value of assets at risk from flooding Environmental Security and the Nexus ! ! 5 Nexus&schematic&with&a&WEF&security&focus&(Bazilian&et&al.&2011).& Working with Interna/onal Development Banks " ! World Bank, IDB, EBRD, ADB, AfDB, others. " ! Development bank owners are its clients. " ! These clients are countries (but really governments)… " ! …so, “country needs” are oNen mixed up with “poli=cal needs”. " ! How can you effec=vely get science into the poli=cally and demand- driven process? " ! How do you do this in regions with varying poli=cal tendencies, agendas and levels of development? South Africa: the case of a water scarce country Water scarce country with very stressed basins in terms of water demands/allocaon Coal thermal power plants account for almost 90% of the power capacity installed Compe==on for water across sectors will increase – power plants have priority, which could negavely affect other sectors such as agriculture Fracking for shale gas is being explored, which will put addi=onal pressure on water resources Need for Water-Energy-Food integrated planning to achieve a sustainable future and avoid scarcity problems in the next years Sources - Top: CSIR, BoIom: ESKOM and Department of Energy of South Africa Needed to “geo-reference” somehow the power plants and energy facili=es in order to regionally constraint the amount of water available by assigning the different power plants and energy extrac=on locaons to their basin South Africa: Marginal Cost of Water Supply Needed to add the cost of supplying water to the energy facili=es by calculang the marginal cost of water supply for each basin SOURCE: ERC - UCT China: a case of mismatched water and energy resources Economics: the water supply curve LAC: Required Investment in Power Generation (2015-2025) Required Investment in Electricity Genera/on for the Period 2015-2025 Cumulave Addi/onal Capacity Required Investment 2014 GDP (2012 Bn Investment as % of Capacity (MW) (MW) (2012 M US$) US$) 2014 GDP Brasil 219,003 46,047 $135,730 1399 9.7% Mexico 83,048 38,552 $55,898 1266 4.4% Colombia 21,175 5,295 $18,868 261 7.2% Chile 23,849 5,086 $16,155 210 7.7% Bolivia 2,810 1,441 $2,666 15.6 5.8% Peru 22,476 10,525 $37,028 138 3.7% Argen=na 39,000 7,203 $6605 402 1.6% Venezuela 37,000 7,058 $6472 228 2.8% LAC 500,000 123,000 $304,393 4564 6.7% Sources: 1986-2013 – EIA Sources:1986-2013 –EIA Installed Capacity (GW) Electricity 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 50 0 1980 change. adeep hydroelectricplants is experiencing relianceon historical America’s Latin 1981 1982 1983 LAC 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Total Hydro Total 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Total Fossil Fuels Total 1997 1998 Capacity Installed 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Total Others Total 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Sources: 1986-2013 – EIA Sources: 1986-2013–EIA Installed Capacity (GW) Electricity 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 50 0 plants isexperiencing adeepchange. historical reliance onhydroelectric America’s Latin 1980 solar, and geothermal power. and on other energy sources such as wind, par=cularly natural gas in various technologies, The region will rely more heavily on fossil fuels, 50% by 2025 Fossil fuels are 47% of total capacity and will be be 39% by 2025 Hydro power is 46% of total capacity and will 1981 1982 1983 LAC 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Total Hydro Total 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total Fossil Fuels Total 1995 1996 1997 1998 CapacityInstalled 1999 2000 2001 Total Others Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 WatWera WStecarWa tSeracrc tiaSetyrrcc IaSintrycdc aeiItnryxcd iI(tenWyxd I Sen(WxId) e (SfWxoI r)(S WfoI)rS foI)r for the tMheitd hMdeltie hdM edEi ldeMad sEildte ada Eslnetad aEs Nnta doas rntNt dhao nANrdtfho rN irActhoafr r Ait(chMfar AiE c(fMNari cAE(Ma)N RE(AMNe) EgARiNo)e AnRg)ieo Rgnieognion 2012502250520100 µµµµ Legend LegendLegendLegend Scenario: SRceefnearerinoSc:ce RenefaerrioeSn:c cReenefaerrioen: cReeference WSI WSI WSI WSI 0 0 N o S c a 0 r c i t yN o S c 0 a r c N i t yo S c a r c i t yNo Scarcity 0.01 - 0.1 0 . 0L1o w- 0 S.1c0 a . r0 c 1 i t Ly-o 0w.1 S0 c. 0 a 1Lrc o-iw t0y .S1c a r c i tLyow Scarcity 0.1 - 1 0 . 1M -o 1d e r a 0 t e. 1 S - Mc 1ao r dc ie t0 yr . a1 t Me- oS1d c e a r ac t it ey S Mcaordceitryate Scarcity 1 - 10 1 -H 1ig0h S c1 a - r c 1 itH0y i g h 1 S c- aH1r0icg i th y S c a r c iHtyigh Scarcity 10 - 100 1 0 S -e 1v0e0re 1S 0 c - a Sr1c0eit0vy e 1 r e0 S-S c1ea0vr0ec ri te y S c a Srceitvyere Scarcity > 100 > 1M0o0s t S e > v 1e 0r eM0 So sc ta >Sr c e1i tMv0ye0or se t S S c e a v re c r itMey oSscta Srceitvyere Scarcity 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Country Borders 0 500 1,0000 1,550000 2,105,0000000 1,0500 12,5000 2,000 Country Borders Country BCoorduenrtsry Borders Kilometers KilometerKsilometerKsilometers 18 Some takeaways (this is what Malthus would tell us) J • ”Nexus Thinking” -> focus on upstream integrated planning toward investments (avoid “stranded assets”). This is where larger gains can be achieved. It is a tougher sell though, and the economics/financial case must be made. • Environmental security worldwide is highly influenced by human signal (demand for water, energy, food). Climate change adds stress to that signal (policies matter!). • Strong need to build capacity (regional, in-country) toward integrated planning, and identification of tradeoffs and synergies in water-energy-food systems. 19 “Water and Climate Systems” " ! Offered 2015-pres " ! Taught using social media (Facebook) and Dropbox for file sharing " ! All lectures (presentations, videos, readings) are openly distributed and available " ! Trying to bridge science- policy interface using IAM " ! Attracts students in natural and social sciences Another thing Malthus may tell us today… “(IAM in international development) is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it… nobody really knows how to do it… everyone thinks everyone else is doing it… so everyone claims they are doing it…” .
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