What Would Thomas Malthus Tell Us in the 21St Century? Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Assessment Modeling from an International Development Perspective

What would Thomas Malthus tell us in the 21st Century? Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Assessment Modeling from an International Development Perspective

Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm AOSC/ENCE/ESSIC/JGCRI UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

Famous Quotes

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”

Mark Twain The water-energy-food challenge is already present and very real “Environmental Security”: an ideal ground for research and applicaon of IAM

▪ Increase in food production required to feed a world of 8 Food Security billion by 2030, 9 billion by 2050 ▪ Increased dependence on food trade exposes countries to water stress impacts abroad

▪ Trade-offs between water and energy including integrated Energy Security management of hydro and other energy sources ▪ Regional cooperation needed to optimize hydropower in conjunction with other water uses

▪ Increased water demand from growing cities

Water Security ▪ Growing numbers of people and value of assets at risk from flooding Environmental Security and the Nexus !

! 5 Nexus&schematic&with&a&WEF&security&focus&(Bazilian&et&al.&2011).& Working with Internaonal Development Banks World Bank, IDB, EBRD, ADB, AfDB, others. Development bank owners are its clients. These clients are countries (but really governments)… …so, “country needs” are oen mixed up with “polical needs”. How can you eﬀecvely get science into the polically and demand- driven process? How do you do this in regions with varying polical tendencies, agendas and levels of development?

South Africa: the case of a water scarce country

Water scarce country with very stressed basins in terms of water demands/allocaon

Coal thermal power plants account for almost 90% of the power capacity installed

Compeon for water across sectors will increase – power plants have priority, which could negavely aﬀect other sectors such as agriculture

Fracking for shale gas is being explored, which will put addional pressure on water resources

Need for Water-Energy-Food integrated planning to achieve a sustainable future and avoid scarcity problems in the next years

Sources - Top: CSIR, Boom: ESKOM and Department of Energy of South Africa Needed to “geo-reference” somehow the power plants and energy facilies in order to regionally constraint the amount of water available by assigning the diﬀerent power plants and energy extracon locaons to their basin South Africa: Marginal Cost of Water Supply

Needed to add the cost of supplying water to the energy facilies by calculang the marginal cost of water supply for each basin

SOURCE: ERC - UCT China: a case of mismatched water and energy resources

Economics: the water supply curve LAC: Required Investment in Power Generation (2015-2025)

Required Investment in Electricity Generaon for the Period 2015-2025

Cumulave Addional Capacity Required Investment 2014 GDP (2012 Bn Investment as % of Capacity (MW) (MW) (2012 M US$) US$) 2014 GDP

Brasil 219,003 46,047 $135,730 1399 9.7%

Mexico 83,048 38,552 $55,898 1266 4.4%

Colombia 21,175 5,295 $18,868 261 7.2%

Chile 23,849 5,086 $16,155 210 7.7%

Bolivia 2,810 1,441 $2,666 15.6 5.8%

Peru 22,476 10,525 $37,028 138 3.7%

Argenna 39,000 7,203 $6605 402 1.6%

Venezuela 37,000 7,058 $6472 228 2.8%

LAC 500,000 123,000 $304,393 4564 6.7% Electricity Installed Capacity

500 LAC Latin America’s historical reliance on 450 hydroelectric plants is experiencing a deep change.

400

350

300

250

200 Installed Capacity (GW)

150

100

0 2011 2011 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024

Sources: 1986-2013 – EIA Total Hydro Total Fossil Fuels Total Others Electricity Installed Capacity

500 LAC

450 Latin America’s historical reliance on hydroelectric plants is experiencing a deep change.

400 Hydro power is 46% of total capacity and will be 39% by 2025

350 Fossil fuels are 47% of total capacity and will be 50% by 2025 The region will rely more heavily on fossil fuels, 300 parcularly natural gas in various technologies, and on other energy sources such as wind, 250 solar, and geothermal power.

200 Installed Capacity (GW)

150

100

Sources: 1986-2013 – EIA

Total Hydro Total Fossil Fuels Total Others

WatWera WStecarWa tSeracrc tiaSetyrrcc IaSintrycdc aeiItnryxcd iI(tenWyxd I Sen(WxId) e (SfWxoI r)(S WfoI)rS foI)r for the tMheitd hMdeltie hdM edEi ldeMad sEildte ada Eslnetad aEs Nnta doas rntNt dhao nANrdtfho rN irActhoafr r Ait(chMfar AiE c(fMNari cAE(Ma)N RE(AMNe) EgARiNo)e AnRg)ieo Rgnieognion

2012502250520100 µµµµ

Legend LegendLegendLegend Scenario: SRceefnearerinoSc:ce RenefaerrioeSn:c cReenefaerrioen: cReeference WSI WSI WSI WSI 0 0 N o S c a 0 r c i t yN o S c 0 a r c N i t yo S c a r c i t yNo Scarcity 0.01 - 0.1 0 . 0L1o w- 0 S.1c0 a . r0 c 1 i t Ly-o 0w.1 S0 c. 0 a 1Lrc o-iw t0y .S1c a r c i tLyow Scarcity 0.1 - 1 0 . 1M -o 1d e r a 0 t e. 1 S - Mc 1ao r dc ie t0 yr . a1 t Me- oS1d c e a r ac tit ey S Mcaordceitryate Scarcity 1 - 10 1 -H 1ig0h S c1 a - r c 1 itH0y i g h 1 S c- aH1r0icg i th y S c a r c iHtyigh Scarcity 10 - 100 1 0 S -e 1v0e0re 1S 0 c - a Sr1c0eit0vy e 1 r e0 S-S c1ea0vr0ec ri te y S c a Srceitvyere Scarcity > 100 > 1M0o0s t S e > v 1e 0r eM0 So sc ta >Sr c e1i tMv0ye0or se t S S c e a v re c r itMey oSscta Srceitvyere Scarcity 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Country Borders 0 500 1,0000 1,550000 2,105,0000000 1,0500 12,5000 2,000 Country Borders Country BCoorduenrtsry Borders Kilometers KilometerKsilometerKsilometers 18 Some takeaways (this is what Malthus would tell us) J • ”Nexus Thinking” -> focus on upstream integrated planning toward investments (avoid “stranded assets”). This is where larger gains can be achieved. It is a tougher sell though, and the economics/financial case must be made. • Environmental security worldwide is highly influenced by human signal (demand for water, energy, food). Climate change adds stress to that signal (policies matter!). • Strong need to build capacity (regional, in-country) toward integrated planning, and identification of tradeoffs and synergies in water-energy-food systems.

19 “Water and Climate Systems”

Offered 2015-pres Taught using social media (Facebook) and Dropbox for file sharing All lectures (presentations, videos, readings) are openly distributed and available Trying to bridge science- policy interface using IAM Attracts students in natural and social sciences Another thing Malthus may tell us today…

“(IAM in international development) is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it… nobody really knows how to do it… everyone thinks everyone else is doing it… so everyone claims they are doing it…”