FEWS Bulletin AFR/98-03 USA/0-Financed Famine Early Warning System
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Marc h 26, 1998 FEWS bulletin AFR/98-03 USA/0-Financed Famine Early Warning System Eastern Africa and the Horn Inside: Poorroad cond itionsco ntinueto disrupt Favorable Weather in Eastern Africa reliefan d marketsin Kenya... ..... ............ 2 Oryweat her letsfarmers ha rvestand prepare fieldsin Tanzania...................... 2 he flooded areasof easternAfr ica and the Ethiopia THorn are drying up. Sincelate February, Pastoralpopulations in Ethiopia'ssoutheastern Usingcli matefor ecaststo improvedisa ster the rains havedecreased and much of the ex· lowlandsdepend heavily on livestockexports mitigation......................................... 3 cesssoi l moisture has evaporated(fig ure 1). In to Somalia, most of which are reexportedto the Rwandanfood defi cit projectioni ncreases... 3 many places,land preparationand planting GulfStates. Saudi A rabia has respondedto out· Rootc ropsand p lantainsbo lsterfoo d are under way.Swollen rivers are receding,and breaksof RiftValley fever in easternAfrica by security in Uganda............................... 4 road accessis improving.As farmersmarket banning livestockimports from eight countries Maizeprices contin ue steepincrease newly harvestedcrops, imp roved commodity in the region,including Ethiopia. No casesof inMala\Yi.. ........................................ S flows are stabilizing food prices. However,co n· livestockRift Valley fever have been reported in Overall cropout looki sgood ti nuing problemsalong the major road and Ethiopia,however, and the EthiopianMinistry of forMozamb ique.................................. 5 rail corridorsacross Tanzania and Kenya have Health recently determined that suspected Donorsrespo nd to foodneeds in forced WFPto reducefood rations to refugees human caseswere actuallymalar ia. Until the Mauritania......................................... 6 and internally displaced persons. SaudiGovernment li fts its ban on livestock Acrossthe region,human and animal dis· sales,th e livelihoodsof about 3 million pas Cereal deficitin BurkinaF asois l argerthan easesare decreasing,but livestockmorb idity toralists in Ethiopia'ssouthern rangelands w ill previouslyest ill)ated ............................ 6 in Kenyaand Tanzania remainshigh relative to be seriously disrupted. Continuedhardship in Niger..................... 7 usual patterns.Saud i Arabia'sban on livestock Belg(secondary season) ra ins begani n most imports,due to reportsof Rift Valleyfever, of Ethiopia'sbelg areas in January- 1 to taining fertilizer loansfrom the Government, posesa threat to the livestockeco nomies of 2 months earlier than normal- and the belg whosecurrent credit policy requiresthat all Ethiopiaand Somalia. weatherpattern was fu lly establishedby mid· loansbe repaid beforeit will makenew ones. February.Ra infall amountsand timing have However,many farmers were unableto repay Potential for Residual beenfavorable for crop production, particularly last year's loansbecause of reducedp roduction Moisture Versus Normal, in the major belgproductio n areasof the north· causedby weatheranomalies. Increased area ern highlandsand centraland southernEthio · plantedthis season may compensatefor some March 1-10, 1998 pia.Planting began at the higheralt itudes in of thesenegative effects . early Januaryand progressedto lower altitudes throughout February.S ubstantial rains alsofe ll Somalia in the southernrange landsof BorenaZone and After monthsof excessiverainfall, the jilaal westernSoma li Region during February, further (long dry season)has a rrived in Somalia.South · benefitinga lreadygood pasturesand abundant ern Somalia is finally drying up, but floodwaters water suppliesfor livestock. If good rainfall con· still join the Jubaa nd Shabelle Rivers.Although tinuesthroughout this belgseason, it will be roadshave been badly damaged,food supplies the longestand most favorablebe/g season in are moving againby land.Watera nd sanitation 6 years. conditionsremain ve ry poor,and malariais a Althoughagroclimat ic conditions so far majormenace to public health.With improving rangefrom good to excellent,some farmers marketflows and supply,t he FoodSecurity As · lackt he agricultural inputs that they needto re sessmentUn it estimatesthat food aid needsfor alizethis belgseason's fu ll production potential. Marchhave decl ined by about one-third from Torrential rains damagedmeher (ma in season) Februarylevels. Ratioof Mob:htrt Supply VtrsusOtmaiM cropsduri ng the harvestper iod last year, result· Responding to reportedcases of RiftValley Mud,BtklWHOfmlll 8tlowNorma l ing in a shortageof good seedth is season. Low fever in southernSoma lia and other areasof normal germinationrates from damagedseeds will the GreaterHorn of Africa,Saud i Arabia has AbO"ttllOfmill MuchAbove Norma l Source:FEWS limit crop performanceand thus production. placeda n embargoon livestocki mports from Fi ure 1 FEIYS,March1998 Farmersa re alsoencounter ing problems in ob· eight countries in easternAfr ica,i ncluding So· malia. Although international investigators Kenya-Livestock Kenya'spri ncipal long-rains production zones, havenot found any clinical evidenceof the dis· in Westernand NyanzaProvinces, relative ly dry easei n central or northern Somalia, this trade Deaths in North conditions in the secondha lf of February facili· dependentarea w ill feel the heaviestimpact Eastern Province, tated land preparation. from the ban. Becausethe ban coincideswith a October 1997- Availability of pulsesand maizefrom the period of peakdema nd in SaudiArabia, befo re short-rainsharvest has improved the food secu· the hajj, it will probably cause substantial eco· February 1998 rity of farm households in short-rainsproduc· nomic and financial harm,incl uding lossof in· tion zones.In marginal agricultural areasof come and revenuesand deteriorating terms of EasternProvince, however, cash -strappedfarm trade.Those affected in the short term include householdsare selling much of their harvest.If herders,bro kers,l ivestockexporters, food im· the upcoming long-rainsseason is poor,these porters,a nd consumers. The economy of the households mayface diff iculties later in the vastarea (Soma li land,and the Somali Region of year. Ethiopia) that suppliesthe port of Berbera, So· maliland, is morevu lnerableto this embargo Tanzania than the areas upplying Bosasso,So malia, be· Acrossmuch of Tanzania,relative ly dry condi causemore than 90 percent of livestockexpo rts - Population tions in February provided relief from the heavy from Berberaa re destinedfor SaudiA rabia, • o.,,h, rainsthat had predominated sinceNovembe r. comparedwith lessthan 50 percentfro m Source:N orth EasternProvince livestock Qf(l((~ In bimodal areas,drier conditions facilitated Bosasso. Figure 2 FEWS,M,mh 1998 harvestingof vuli (short rains)crops and land The Somaliland Ministryof Livestockis look· dres.singimmed iate needs,b ut longer term in· preparationand planting of masika(long rains) ing into rehabilitating a livestockholding terventions will be necessary to prevent large crops. In unimodalareas, t hey facilitated har· ground and instituting animal health inspec numbersof pastoralistsfrom becoming desti· vesting of the bean crop plantedin November, tions to satisfyi mporting countriesthat health tute. NGO'swor king in pastoral areasr eport an planting of the secondbean crop,and weeding and safetyconcerns a re being met.However, influx of destitute pastoralists into towns. of other cropsp lanted in Novemberand internationalquarantine require ments are strin· Driercond itions in pastoralareas have re December. gent,and it will be difficult to fulfill them before stored road accessto marketsi n lsiolo,Marsa · In February,the FAO- WFPcrop and food the end of the peakexport season. Accordingto bit, and MoyaleDistricts in Eastern Province; supplyassess ment mission publishedi ts initial the health codeof the International Office of Mandera District in North EasternProv ince; estimateof vu/Iproduct ion, putting total pro· Epizootics,an embargoca n continuefor 3 years SamburuD istrict in RiftValley P rovince;a nd the duction at 1.1m illion MT:620,000 MT of cere· if the exportingcountry is unableto observe whole of the coastalstrip, but northern Garissa als,430,000 MT of root crops,and 52,000MT of the international guidelines. If the embargo be· and southern WajirD istricts in North Eastern pulses.The m issionest imatesthis year's harvest comespro longed,i t will likely weakenthe cur· Province and much of TanaRiver District in in most areasat levelswe ll abovel ast year's renciesof Somalia and Somaliland,further CoastProv ince remain cut off. Evenwhere roads drought-affected output. Februarywas too erodingtraders ' capabilityto import foodstuffs. are now passable,co nditions are very poor, in· earlyin the seasonto quantify masikaproduc· If the food securitysta tus of largesegments of creasing transport time and costsfor both com· tion in unimodal areas,but the assessmentmis · the population of Somaliland deterioratesas a mercial and relief food deliveries. Becauseof sion reportsthat if rainfall levels are normal result of the livestock embargoand its eco· poor roadcondit ions,WFP cont inued airlifts of throughApr il, production of maize,rice, and nomic consequences,donors may be called relief supplies to Manderaa nd WajirD istrictsin root cropsshould be well aboveaverage. Pro upon to providefood and other assistanceon a February. duction of sorghumand millet will be below large scale. Harvestingof pulsesis complete in the averagebecause of seedsho rtages at planting short-rainspulse