Pdf | 281.89 Kb
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Special Report— March 31, 2000 FEWS bulletin 1999/2000 Sahel VulnerabilityAFR/00-03 Assessment USAID-Financed Famine Early Warning System Eastern Africa and the Horn Inside: The Current Crisis Worsens in Ethiopia New assessments in Somalia target extremely food-insecure areas ................. 1 (Insert) Food aid needed in Tanzania but need t the time of this report,the onset of the criti- If the belg harvest fails completely,the dimen- estimates lowered ................................. 3 Acal belg (secondary) rains was already 3 to 5 sions of the crisis will expand quickly.Early analy- Distribution activities continue in Karamoja weeks late in highly and extremely food-insecure ses of the potential impact of a total failure of the Area and Bundibugyo District in Uganda .... 3 agricultural areas in Tigray,Amhara,Oromiya and belg harvest suggest that food aid requirements NGOs withdraw from southern Sudan over SNNPR Regions.The second half of March is the during 2000 could rise from 836,000 MT to almost Memo of Understanding issue ................ 4 last viable planting period for farmers to plant 1.3 million MT.In the northern highlands (South Current food access conditions generally good short-cycle belg crops.Large tracts of parched pas- Tigray,North Wello,South Wello and North Shewa), in Mauritania,but food insecurity toral areas in the SNNPR,Oromiya and Somali Re- about 2 million people are highly dependent on looms for some .................................... 4 gions continued,literally,to burn under extended the belg-season harvest of short-cycle crops.A har- Abundance brings low cereal prices and dryness.If the belg rains do finally come in late vest failure would mean that most of these farm- hardship for some Malians ..................... 5 March or early April,they could help to alleviate ers would need food assistance from July until at Excellent market gardening prospects the harsh pastoral conditions that are devastating least the end of the year.The case is similar in the in Niger ............................................. 5 the herds and livelihoods of hundreds of thou- southwestern farming areas (parts of SNNPR,in- Off-season gardening as a coping mechanism sands of pastoralists in these areas.Nevertheless, cluding Konso,Derashe,Burji and North Omo).Al- in Niger ............................................. 5 movements of Somali Region pastoralists towards though it is too early to predict if southern and Off-season agriculture booming in Chad ....... 6 food relief distribution points have already begun eastern pastoral areas will receive April rains to re- Current food aid programs in Chad .............. 6 and will likely increase if rains do not arrive quickly. generate water points and pastures and reduce Flooding in eastern and southern Zimbabwe .. 6 The late onset of the rains in both the belg- food aid needs,it is clear that Ethiopia is already Good crop development in Zambia .............. 6 farming areas and the southern and southeastern facing a scenario that is substantially worse than First-round production estimates released pastoral areas represents an immediate additional the current response was designed to handle. in Malawi ........................................... 7 crisis for the relief effort now being implemented. The dimensions of the current food crisis in Mozambique experiences worst flooding Current estimates of national food aid require- Ethiopia now appear to be growing larger,and the in 50 years .......................................... 7 ments assumed that the belg harvest would be av- problems greater.The opportunity to avert a mas- erage and contribute approximately 250,000 MT of sive human disaster now rests even more precari- rapid assessments in the Region were conducted food to belg farmers,and that pastoral area water ously upon the ability of Government and donors in February.These assessments documented both points and pastures would be regenerated by the to not only fully fund and carry-out the current the diversity and the severity of food insecurity in rains.Already,the delay in planting will increase emergency efforts,but to expand them to meet parts of the Region found there. the relief requirements of belg farmers by 1 to 2 needs that are substantially greater and more For example,CARE reported no pressing food months of food needs (by as much as 50,000 MT), urgent. security concerns in Hudur and Tieglo towns,while and more if the rains do not come at all.The im- WFP confirmed large population movements,visi- pact of the delayed belg rains will also be felt in Somalia ble signs of malnutrition,stretched coping capaci- lost plantings and poor germination conditions for Following a Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) ties,serious water shortages,poor livestock the main season long-cycle crops that should be and FEWS alert in late January on the deteriorat- condition,and unseasonably high cereal prices in planted during this period. ing food security situation in Bakol,a number of Wajid,Rab-Dure and El Barde Districts.A UNICEF Weather Anomalies in Eastern and Southern Africa Linked uring February and March,powerful global weather systems related to the distant La pressure system of the preceding cyclone pulled it down the same path.On the way south, DNiña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean have contributed to 2 evolving disasters in the cyclones siphoned moisture that might have eventually moved westward into the Horn, Africa:one in southern Africa and the other in the Greater Horn of Africa.Heavy rains that pulling it southwestward instead.Arriving in Madagascar and Mozambique,the cyclones often characterize La Niña in southern Africa hit Mozambique,South Africa,Swaziland and dumped large amounts of moisture and worsened the flooding in both countries.Because Zimbabwe and caused massive flooding downstream in Mozambique.La Niña also helped this moist air did not arrive in Ethiopia,the critical belg (secondary) rains have already been spawn a string of tropical cyclones in the central Indian Ocean,where they began moving to- delayed by more than a month.The delay,and the chance that the rains may not come at all, ward Madagascar and Mozambique.As each successive new cyclone was generated,the low- will exacerbate the already massive crisis of food,water,and pasture shortfalls in Ethiopia. nutritional assessment in Rab-Dure town found a global malnutrition rate of 30 percent, including 6 Kenya—Currently Food Insecure Districts percent severe malnutrition. A UNICEF nutrition survey in Wajid town showed a 21 percent global Eastern malnutrition rate, and a severe rate of 3 percent, Moyale despite major WFP food distributions in each of Turkana Mandera the last 3 months. The overall regional pattern is Rift Valley Marsabit that the degree of food insecurity increases dra- matically as one moves southwest from Hudur town to Wajid town, and then north to Rab-Dure Northeastern and El Barde and the Ethiopian border. The UN Co- Western ordination Unit declared that “the humanitarian situation is as serious as outlined in the FSAU re- ports, and in some cases, certainly in terms of Tharaka numbers affected, may be worse”. Mwingi In Gedo Region, a multi-donor mission in which Nyanza MachakosMakueni FEWS participated undertook a rapid assessment Kitui of food security in February and found high food Central insecurity among poor agropastoralists and urban Nairobi dwellers (comprising 20 to 30 percent of the popu- Coast lation). The assessment also noted the likelihood that poor nutritional status and a depletion of KM livelihood assets, especially livestock, will continue 0 100 200 at least until April. Food security conditions in Priority Districts in WFP EMOP Gedo, like Bakol, worsen as one moves from the Districts Potentially Covered by WFP EMOP south to the north. Districts Covered by Government of Kenya's Relief Program The extreme food insecurity of parts of Bakol, Source: FEWS/Kenya Figure 1 FEWS, March 2000 Gedo and Bay Regions is partly due to the almost total failure of the 1999/2000 deyr (secondary) sea- Kenya Despite areas with harvest shortfalls, the Ministry son harvest in most rainfed sorghum-growing Donors have begun responding to a request by of Agriculture’s short-rains production estimate areas of Gedo, Bakol and parts of Hiran and Bay WFP for funding of a $43.4 million Emergency Op- has been revised upward to 430,000 MT from the Regions. Deyr production in Bakol Region was esti- eration (EMOP) that could target 1.7 million peo- December estimate of 315,000 MT. This is due mated at only 113 MT, compared to the post-war ple in 18 food-insecure districts of Kenya (figure mostly to a good harvest in the drought-prone average of over 2,100 MT. These results stand in 1). Pledges of financial and commodity support Districts of Machakos, Kitui and Makueni (Eastern). stark contrast to the favorable harvests in coastal have been received from the Governments of Considering this and 1999 long-rains harvest fig- southern and central Somalia, where total cereal Australia, Finland, France, the United States, Great ures, in-country stocks and informal imports from production (maize and sorghum) is estimated at Britain and the European Union. WFP has desig- Uganda and Tanzania, the estimated maize deficit approximately 108,200 MT, or 54 percent more nated 9 priority districts to receive 38,000 MT of through June 2000 has been revised downward than the post-war average for the deyr season. Par- food for 780,000 people between February and from 400,000 to 210,000 MT. The private sector ticularly good maize harvests came from irrigated June. WFP has also released $1.5 million from its should be able to cover the deficit through com- areas in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and parts of Immediate Response Account for EMOP start-up mercial channels if current import duties are Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba Regions. costs, some of which will purchase 2,000 MT of lowered significantly.