Special Report—

March 31, 2000 FEWS bulletin 1999/2000 Sahel VulnerabilityAFR/00-03 Assessment USAID-Financed Famine Early Warning System

Eastern Africa and the Horn Inside: The Current Crisis Worsens in Ethiopia New assessments in Somalia target extremely food-insecure areas ...... 1 (Insert) Food aid needed in Tanzania but need t the time of this report,the onset of the criti- If the belg harvest fails completely,the dimen- estimates lowered ...... 3 Acal belg (secondary) rains was already 3 to 5 sions of the crisis will expand quickly.Early analy- Distribution activities continue in Karamoja weeks late in highly and extremely food-insecure ses of the potential impact of a total failure of the Area and Bundibugyo District in Uganda .... 3 agricultural areas in Tigray,Amhara,Oromiya and belg harvest suggest that food aid requirements NGOs withdraw from southern Sudan over SNNPR Regions.The second half of March is the during 2000 could rise from 836,000 MT to almost Memo of Understanding issue ...... 4 last viable planting period for farmers to plant 1.3 million MT.In the northern highlands (South Current food access conditions generally good short-cycle belg crops.Large tracts of parched pas- Tigray,North Wello,South Wello and North Shewa), in Mauritania,but food insecurity toral areas in the SNNPR,Oromiya and Somali Re- about 2 million people are highly dependent on looms for some ...... 4 gions continued,literally,to burn under extended the belg-season harvest of short-cycle crops.A har- Abundance brings low cereal prices and dryness.If the belg rains do finally come in late vest failure would mean that most of these farm- hardship for some Malians ...... 5 March or early April,they could help to alleviate ers would need food assistance from July until at Excellent market gardening prospects the harsh pastoral conditions that are devastating least the end of the year.The case is similar in the in Niger ...... 5 the herds and livelihoods of hundreds of thou- southwestern farming areas (parts of SNNPR,in- Off-season gardening as a coping mechanism sands of pastoralists in these areas.Nevertheless, cluding Konso,Derashe,Burji and North Omo).Al- in Niger ...... 5 movements of Somali Region pastoralists towards though it is too early to predict if southern and Off-season agriculture booming in Chad ...... 6 food relief distribution points have already begun eastern pastoral areas will receive April rains to re- Current food aid programs in Chad ...... 6 and will likely increase if rains do not arrive quickly. generate water points and pastures and reduce Flooding in eastern and southern Zimbabwe .. 6 The late onset of the rains in both the belg- food aid needs,it is clear that Ethiopia is already Good crop development in Zambia ...... 6 farming areas and the southern and southeastern facing a scenario that is substantially worse than First-round production estimates released pastoral areas represents an immediate additional the current response was designed to handle. in Malawi ...... 7 crisis for the relief effort now being implemented. The dimensions of the current food crisis in Mozambique experiences worst flooding Current estimates of national food aid require- Ethiopia now appear to be growing larger,and the in 50 years ...... 7 ments assumed that the belg harvest would be av- problems greater.The opportunity to avert a mas- erage and contribute approximately 250,000 MT of sive human disaster now rests even more precari- rapid assessments in the Region were conducted food to belg farmers,and that pastoral area water ously upon the ability of Government and donors in February.These assessments documented both points and pastures would be regenerated by the to not only fully fund and carry-out the current the diversity and the severity of food insecurity in rains.Already,the delay in planting will increase emergency efforts,but to expand them to meet parts of the Region found there. the relief requirements of belg farmers by 1 to 2 needs that are substantially greater and more For example,CARE reported no pressing food months of food needs (by as much as 50,000 MT), urgent. security concerns in Hudur and Tieglo towns,while and more if the rains do not come at all.The im- WFP confirmed large population movements,visi- pact of the delayed belg rains will also be felt in Somalia ble signs of malnutrition,stretched coping capaci- lost plantings and poor germination conditions for Following a Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) ties,serious water shortages,poor livestock the main season long-cycle crops that should be and FEWS alert in late January on the deteriorat- condition,and unseasonably high cereal prices in planted during this period. ing food security situation in Bakol,a number of Wajid,Rab-Dure and El Barde Districts.A UNICEF

Weather Anomalies in Eastern and Southern Africa Linked uring February and March,powerful global weather systems related to the distant La pressure system of the preceding cyclone pulled it down the same path.On the way south, DNiña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean have contributed to 2 evolving disasters in the cyclones siphoned moisture that might have eventually moved westward into the Horn, Africa:one in southern Africa and the other in the Greater Horn of Africa.Heavy rains that pulling it southwestward instead.Arriving in Madagascar and Mozambique,the cyclones often characterize La Niña in southern Africa hit Mozambique,South Africa,Swaziland and dumped large amounts of moisture and worsened the flooding in both countries.Because Zimbabwe and caused massive flooding downstream in Mozambique.La Niña also helped this moist air did not arrive in Ethiopia,the critical belg (secondary) rains have already been spawn a string of tropical cyclones in the central Indian Ocean,where they began moving to- delayed by more than a month.The delay,and the chance that the rains may not come at all, ward Madagascar and Mozambique.As each successive new cyclone was generated,the low- will exacerbate the already massive crisis of food,water,and pasture shortfalls in Ethiopia. nutritional assessment in Rab-Dure town found a global malnutrition rate of 30 percent, including 6 Kenya—Currently Food Insecure Districts percent severe malnutrition. A UNICEF nutrition survey in Wajid town showed a 21 percent global Eastern malnutrition rate, and a severe rate of 3 percent, Moyale despite major WFP food distributions in each of Turkana Mandera the last 3 months. The overall regional pattern is Rift Valley Marsabit that the degree of food insecurity increases dra- matically as one moves southwest from Hudur town to Wajid town, and then north to Rab-Dure Northeastern and El Barde and the Ethiopian border. The UN Co- Western ordination Unit declared that “the humanitarian situation is as serious as outlined in the FSAU re- ports, and in some cases, certainly in terms of Tharaka numbers affected, may be worse”. Mwingi In Gedo Region, a multi-donor mission in which Nyanza MachakosMakueni FEWS participated undertook a rapid assessment Kitui of food security in February and found high food Central insecurity among poor agropastoralists and urban Nairobi dwellers (comprising 20 to 30 percent of the popu- Coast lation). The assessment also noted the likelihood that poor nutritional status and a depletion of KM livelihood assets, especially livestock, will continue 0 100 200 at least until April. Food security conditions in Priority Districts in WFP EMOP Gedo, like Bakol, worsen as one moves from the Districts Potentially Covered by WFP EMOP south to the north. Districts Covered by Government of Kenya's Relief Program The extreme food insecurity of parts of Bakol, Source: FEWS/Kenya Figure 1 FEWS, March 2000 Gedo and Bay Regions is partly due to the almost total failure of the 1999/2000 deyr (secondary) sea- Kenya Despite areas with harvest shortfalls, the Ministry son harvest in most rainfed sorghum-growing Donors have begun responding to a request by of Agriculture’s short-rains production estimate areas of Gedo, Bakol and parts of Hiran and Bay WFP for funding of a $43.4 million Emergency Op- has been revised upward to 430,000 MT from the Regions. Deyr production in Bakol Region was esti- eration (EMOP) that could target 1.7 million peo- December estimate of 315,000 MT. This is due mated at only 113 MT, compared to the post-war ple in 18 food-insecure districts of Kenya (figure mostly to a good harvest in the drought-prone average of over 2,100 MT. These results stand in 1). Pledges of financial and commodity support Districts of Machakos, Kitui and Makueni (Eastern). stark contrast to the favorable harvests in coastal have been received from the Governments of Considering this and 1999 long-rains harvest fig- southern and central Somalia, where total cereal Australia, Finland, France, the United States, Great ures, in-country stocks and informal imports from production (maize and sorghum) is estimated at Britain and the European Union. WFP has desig- Uganda and Tanzania, the estimated maize deficit approximately 108,200 MT, or 54 percent more nated 9 priority districts to receive 38,000 MT of through June 2000 has been revised downward than the post-war average for the deyr season. Par- food for 780,000 people between February and from 400,000 to 210,000 MT. The private sector ticularly good maize harvests came from irrigated June. WFP has also released $1.5 million from its should be able to cover the deficit through com- areas in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and parts of Immediate Response Account for EMOP start-up mercial channels if current import duties are Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba Regions. costs, some of which will purchase 2,000 MT of lowered significantly. Current relief efforts continue to be hindered maize for distribution in Turkana, Marsabit, Moyale Pasture, browse and water availability deterio- by civil insecurity. CARE distributed about 3,000 MT and Mandera Districts. During March, the Govern- rated significantly in February in the western and of food aid in southern Somalia during February, ment will distribute over 4,300 MT of maize to 26 northern pastoral districts, including Moyale, including almost 2,100 MT of emergency relief pastoral, agropastoral and marginal agriculture Turkana, Marsabit and parts of Mandera and Sam- food in Bay, Bakol and Gedo Regions, and the re- districts. Multi-agency, rapid assessments of the buru. Many pastoralists moved their herds to mainder through food-for-work activities in Lower current food security conditions in 22 of the dis- areas that are less secure but have better quality Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiran Regions. CARE tricts currently receiving Government relief food pasture and water sources. However, extensive food distributions in Garbahare District (Gedo Re- were completed during March. The Kenya Food movement and clustering of pastoralists and live- gion) were disrupted by civil insecurity and even- Security Steering Group is using this information stock has exacerbated livestock raiding both tually suspended. WFP delivered over 570 MT of to reassess which districts require immediate food within Kenya and across the Ethiopia and Uganda food in Bakol Region (Wajid, El Barde and Rab- aid and to harmonize Government and WFP borders. In the worst hit divisions of these dis- Dure Districts) at the end of February but noted distribution programs. tricts, rates of malnutrition for children under 5 are that civil insecurity makes it virtually impossible to February was seasonably dry throughout most at an alarmingly high rate of 30 to 60 percent, provide intended levels of food aid to target of Kenya, facilitating the harvest of the short-rains compared to a normal estimate of 15 to 20 per- beneficiaries. crop but causing the failure of some late-planted cent. crops in parts of Eastern and Coast Provinces.

2 FEWS bulletin AFR/00-03, March 31, 2000 Maize price decreases in several key markets food aid, Government resources should be ade- begin increasing until the next harvest in across the country in February are attributed to quate to cover food aid needs until the beginning June/July. The recent 12 percent increase in fuel the conclusion of the harvest in several key short- of the next harvest in late April and May. Careful prices will affect the cost of transport from pro- rains areas, the inflow of maize from Uganda and monitoring of all 800,000 people previously iden- duction areas to major markets, and the cost of the National Cereals and Produce Board’s (NCPB) tified as food insecure is needed along with con- food commodities is expected to increase. decision to temporarily halt maize purchases. De- tingency planning for another poor harvest. The Reduced pressure for emergency food aid has spite the price declines, the current price in key improvement in the status of most of the 800,000 allowed humanitarian organizations to concen- reference markets remains 10 to 40 percent food insecure appears to result mainly from the trate more on food-for-work (FFW) programs. The higher than the 1994-1999 average February continuing availability of food at relatively low focus of these programs is aimed at supporting price. prices, although the ability of many households to the agricultural sector and increasing rural in- purchase food may be limited. The assessment comes. Most FFW projects are oriented toward Tanzania mission observed that maize grain and maize marshland reclamation for agricultural produc- Generally sparse and poorly distributed rainfall flour are available in the food-insecure areas, even tion, land terracing and soil conservation. Cur- since November has led to a poor vuli (secondary) in remote locations. Availability is facilitated by rently about 40 percent of WFP’s food aid season harvest and impeded the start of the the active network of small-scale trades and program (about 5,000 MT per month) is going to masika (main) agricultural season in many areas weekly markets. Maize prices are quite low, rang- FFW, but this percentage is expected to increase of Tanzania. A joint assessment mission in Febru- ing from 1,500 to 2,000 Tsh per debe (20kg) from as more activities are identified. ary by Government agencies, FEWS, Save the Chil- October 1999 to February 2000 compared with dren Fund–UK and WFP investigated the vuli 1,700 to 4,000 Tsh per debe for the same period of Uganda harvest results and food insecurity in the northern the previous year. As a result of the worrisome food supply situation and central regions. The assessment estimated in the Karamoja Region (Kotido and Moroto Dis- that vuli season production of maize, beans, Rwanda tricts), WFP began distributing modest amounts sorghum/millet, cassava and potatoes were, re- By early March, the rainfall season was established of emergency food aid to the most vulnerable–— spectively, 69, 68,57, 22 and 33 percent below across Rwanda, signaling the start of season B children under 5 and the infirm—in early March. their 1993/94 –1997/98 averages. In unimodal 2000. Farmers have completed land preparation WFP also drafted an emergency appeal for central Tanzania, especially in the Rift Valley areas and sowing. To reduce the risk of total crop failure roughly 8,000 MT of food for a 6-month relief pro- of Dodoma, Manyoni and Singida Districts, most in the event of poor rainfall distribution, farmers gram to be executed between March and August crops planted in December and January wilted at spread planting over several weeks to maintain 2000. The document is under evaluation by WFP the early stages and, in some cases, a third plant- crops at various stages of development. Sorghum, Rome and should be presented to donors by the ing in March is necessary. In other northern and which was planted in January and February, is de- end of March. In addition to WFP’s food aid, the central unimodal rainfall areas, crops are at the veloping well now that rains have become fully Lutheran World Federation (LWF) began a market late vegetative to flowering stages but have been established. There are no shortages of planting supply stabilization program (FEWS bulletin, De- subjected to drought stress following below-aver- material of traditional varieties, but imported vari- cember 1999) in Moroto District to increase mar- age and sporadic rainfall in February. If rainfall eties (such as mosaic tolerant cassava cuttings) ket access for the most food-insecure populations. does not improve before mid-March, prospects for are in short supply. Fertilizer, which is an impor- By selling maize in the market at subsidized a good harvest will diminish, and the number of tant input for Irish potatoes and rice production, prices, the NGO has helped stabilize and even re- food-insecure households is likely to increase. In remains in short supply with only about one- duce spiraling food prices. Prices are now ap- the grain-basket southern highlands, field crops in quarter of the country’s needs available in the proaching their historical average for this time of most locations are growing well but will require market. Although additional supplies are report- the year. This effort—combined with food aid in- good rainfall for several months. edly being imported by traders, they are not ex- terventions by WFP—should help improve In general, pasture and water availability for pected to arrive in time for use this season. The household food security until the next harvest livestock are good except in the Rift Valley in Rwanda Department of Meteorology forecasts (August 2000). Dodoma and Singida Regions, where there are re- that Season B rains will be normal throughout Since January, increased military deployment ports of unusual migrations by agropastoralists most of the country during the March to May pe- in Bundibugyo District (in the western part of the and their livestock in search of water. riod, with a higher probability of normal to below- country) has improved civil security in an area The preliminary report of the February joint as- normal rainfall in the south and southwest previously threatened by rebels. Humanitarian sessment indicates that up to 70,000 people are in regions. agencies have steadily returned to the District to immediate need of food aid. Those in greatest Since the season A harvest began in December provide food and non-food assistance to inter- need are concentrated in Manyoni District of 1999, prices of major staples have followed an ex- nally displaced persons estimated at more than Singida Region, Mbulu District of Arusha Region pected downward trend. Beans and Irish potato 100,000. Improved security has allowed WFP to re- and Ulanga District of Morogoro Region. While prices are currently at their lowest levels since sume food aid distributions, and since the end of this number is still significant, it is considerably 1994. In addition to local production, imports January, almost 1,100 MT of food has been deliv- less than the 800,000 food insecure identified in from Uganda and the Democratic Republic of ered for approximately 100,000 beneficiaries. The assessments carried out from mid to late 1999 in Congo are helping to maintain market supply and ability of displaced households to cultivate during Mara, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Tabora, Arusha, Iringa, lower prices for these 2 commodities. As a result, this agricultural season (March–July) remains un- Singida, Dodoma and Morogoro Regions (FEWS for the next few months, Rwandans should expe- certain and depends upon the continuity of civil bulletin, December 1999). Although there are not rience little difficulty gaining access to food. How- security. yet any concrete plans to distribute the required ever, in the coming weeks, prices are expected to

FEWS bulletin AFR/00-03, March 31, 2000 3 In Uganda’s northern Gulu and Kitgum Dis- and Save the Children-UK) have refused to sign and non-food assistance. The WFP/TSU recently tricts, the civil situation remains insecure as spo- and have withdrawn from SRRA-controlled areas. completed the first assessment in over a year of radic rebel attacks continue. A sizeable percentage The withdrawal of these NGOs will have an almost Ruweng County (Upper Nile Region) and found of these Districts’ population remains in displaced immediate negative impact on food aid, health an urgent need for both food aid and health care. camps. WFP and NGOs are continuing to provide and nutrition, and water and sanitation programs Médecins du Monde reports that malnutrition rates relief through their ongoing programs. for over half a million people. UN agencies, not in Abuyong Payam (Yirol County in Lakes Region) The Ugandan Department of Meteorology pre- subject to the MOU terms, will attempt to cover rose to a 23 percent global rate, with 3 percent se- dicts near normal to below-normal rains for most some of the populations most threatened by the vere malnutrition in December 1999, compared of Uganda for the March to May 2000 period. withdrawal. with 14 percent (global) and 2 percent (severe) in First-season rains are expected to begin by early Before the MOU issue, the WFP/TSU (Technical October 1999. to mid-March, peak in April, and end by early June Support Unit, formerly the Food Economy Analysis UNICEF and NGOs have finalized plans to dis- in the southern half of Uganda. The rainy season Unit) updated estimates of food aid requirements tribute more than 3,000 MT of cereal and pulse in northern and northeastern Uganda is expected for 2000, based on a number of new assessments. seeds for the up-coming main agricultural season to begin in early April. Dry spells are forecast for Overall, more than 1.5 million people, represent- (March to July/August), a decline of about 22 per- late April to early May 2000 for the northeast, ing almost 30 percent of the total population of cent from last year due to the relatively good har- where the rains should be fully established in southern Sudan, will require about 42,800 MT of vests in most areas. Distribution plans indicate June. food assistance over the year to meet a minimum that the seed requirements for some areas, no- First-season cultivation has begun with farm- daily per capita consumption level target of 2,100 tably Upper Nile and Jonglei Regions, will fall ers in the south of the country preparing fields calories. An additional amount of about 19,400 short by more than 450 MT. Planned distributions and sowing. Farmers in northern Districts, where MT of emergency food assistance is also being re- of about 775 MT of seeds in SRRA-controlled areas rains normally arrive about one month later than quested to preserve assets for more than 200,000 are likely to be adversely affected by the with- in the south, have already dry-sown sorghum and people. WFP is expected to provide 90 percent of drawal of key NGOs. In February, WFP delivered millet in anticipation of the rains. these food aid requirements, while the remainder nearly 3,500 MT of food, representing 96 percent will be provided by NGOs, including Lutheran of planned deliveries for the month. Distributions Southern Sudan World Federation, Norwegian Peoples’ Aid and in Upper Nile and Jonglei Regions did not meet In southern Sudan, many NGOs refused to sign a Catholic Relief Services. targets because of low WFP cereal stocks in Loki- March 1, 2000 Memorandum of Understanding Recent assessments by various agencies have choggio (Kenya) and a temporary suspension of (MOU) prepared by the Sudan Relief and Rehabili- highlighted the conditions of 3 groups who re- operations in Relief Association of Southern tation Association (SRRA). The MOU makes NGO quire urgent attention. A multi-agency team com- Sudan (RASS)-controlled areas. As of March 1, WFP aid projects subject to SRRA’s approval and overall prised of WFP, UNICEF, Médecins du Monde, reported about 60 MT of cereal stocks in Loki- control of the distribution of humanitarian assis- International Rescue Committee, FEWS and the choggio, with plans to obtain a loan of 700 MT of tance in SRRA-controlled areas in southern Sudan. SRRA has indicated that about 20,000 recent re- cereal in March (probably from WFP Uganda) and Eleven of 43 international NGOs (including large turnees from the north who currently reside in to purchase additional cereal supplies from within organizations like CARE, World Vision International camps in Aweil East County need immediate food the region.

Sahel

Mauritania Gorgol, Tagant, Trarza and western Assaba and watering conditions in the southern WFP and the Food Security Commission (CSA) Wilayas), current food access has improved sub- agropastoral zones remain satisfactory except in completed distributions of 3-month rations to stantially following the CSA/WFP food distribu- parts of Assaba, Brakna and Trarza Wilayas, populations affected by flooding and damage tions and increased food availability from where herders had to begin their seasonal mi- from heavy rains during the 1999 rainy season gardening and off-season production of crops grations earlier than usual. Food access contin- in Brakna and Gorgol Wilayas. These distribu- such as maize, sweet potatoes and cowpeas. ues to be difficult for the members of these tions bring to an end the emergency program However, food access for these farm households pastoralist households who remained in settle- that distributed 2,240 MT of cereals, about 290 will be difficult during the May to August hun- ments, cut off from their main source of food ac- MT of cowpeas and over 130 MT of oil to 57,500 gry period because heavy pest damage to re- cess. For most pastoralists, however, food people in 12 moughataas in Brakna, Gorgol, cessional crops has clouded earlier hopes that security conditions remain the best in recent Tagant and Trarza Wilayas. good recessional production would help house- years. As the Muslim holiday of Tabaski ap- Current food access for farm households in holds make up for losses in rainfed or irrigated proaches (mid-March), animal prices continue to the eastern rainfed agropastoral zone (Guidi- production (see CVA Insert). climb, increasing pastoralists’ purchasing power. maka, Hodh Ech Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi and Heavy rains in February in northern Maurita- In Nouakchott, prices of imported foods (rice, eastern Assaba Wilayas) continues to be good nia caused additional damage to homes and in- cooking oil and sugar) remained stable for the because of excellent rainfed harvests and good frastructure in the economic capital, second consecutive month. Fish prices contin- pastoral conditions during the 1999 rainy sea- Nouadhibou, but favored pasture development ued to be erratic because of the heavy winds son. In the center and west of the zone (Brakna, and watering conditions for livestock. Pasture that intermittently prevented fishing. In most of

4 FEWS bulletin AFR/00-03, March 31, 2000 the main production zones, traditional cereal Malian products from several agricultural sub- Development (MRD) indicate a gross production prices rose between January and February, re- sectors, including traditional cereals. of 1,334,000 MT, equivalent to about 270,000 flecting reduced expectations that the ongoing MT in cereals. This is double the disappointing recessional harvest will be good because of Burkina Faso 1998/99 production, with all Departments regis- mounting pest damage. Continued low cereal prices and adequate avail- tering significant increases over last year’s levels. ability of fruits, vegetables, milk, meat and other Such good production bodes well for the food Mali food products in local markets are ensuring security of many Nigeriens, particularly in the Mali’s national early warning system (SAP) re- food security for most consumers across Burkina Department of Maradi. There, the population cently completed its annual meeting at which it Faso. Even in Provinces that have larger than av- mobilized all their resources toward market gar- evaluates food security conditions in the coun- erage cereal production deficits this year, cereals dening after a main season cereal production try (north of the 14th parallel) and identifies are readily available in markets as traders are ac- shortfall in 6 of the 7 arrondissements, espe- populations at increased risk of food insecurity tively moving supplies in from surplus areas. In cially in Guidan Roumdji, which experienced a before the next rainfed harvest. For the second the Sahelian Provinces (Oudalan, Seno and production shortfall of over 40 percent. In Diffa consecutive year, the SAP did not recommend Soum), where estimated cereal production was Department, the area cultivated was slightly any food aid distributions (see CVA Insert). How- well below average, agricultural officers report lower than last year as a result of flooding of the ever, the SAP did identify several arrondisse- that the wild fonio harvest, which is not fully re- Koumadougou River. Off-season activity has not ments where households will experience flected in cereal production estimates, is excel- yet started near Lake Chad because of high economic difficulties and will have to intensify lent this year. Adequate water for off-season water levels. coping activities. Two of these are located in gardening and fishing, as well as adequate fod- Through early March, Niger’s National Secu- Bankass and Koro Circles (Mopti Region) where der for livestock, are providing rural households rity Food stocks remained unchanged at over crops were lost to flooding. with supplementary income to finance food and 14,900 MT. Riz du Niger held about 1,500 MT of In a paradoxical turn, the SAP identified sev- non-food needs. Pastoralist purchasing power is various types of rice, an increase of 12 percent eral arrondissements that will be experiencing strong, with 1 medium goat selling for the compared to last month (near 1,300 MT). WFP economic difficulties not because of crop or equivalent of almost one-half ton of millet. De- held almost 7,100 MT of cereal. Total publicly pasture failure, but because of low prices result- spite the overall positive food security situation, held stocks equal 23,500 MT. ing from the overall abundance of cereals. Fol- there are 3 Provinces where households are National Market Information System (SIM) lowing 2 years of record cereal harvests in Mali highly food insecure and 8 others where they data show that cereal price trends remain mixed and low demand from neighboring countries, are moderately food insecure (see CVA insert). without any geographic pattern. However, de- harvest-period cereal prices are at very low lev- According to official sources, almost 100 mil- spite the good harvest, prices are significantly els. Farm households who normally depend on lion CFA francs were donated in February by higher in most (27 of 39 surveyed) markets than the sale of a part of their production to finance NGOs, private donors and development partners they were in early 1999, ranging from 4 percent other basic needs (clothing, purchase of other for the Burkinabé who fled ethnic violence in in Agadez to 56 percent in Kokomani (Tillabéry). food items, school materials, medical care and Côte d’Ivoire last November. Most of the re- In Niamey, livestock prices have been rising medicine) have seen their revenue fall substan- turnees are being reintegrated into their villages since December 1999. Ram prices have in- tially. The affected arrondissements are in Diema of origin in Burkina Faso, largely in Poni creased by 16 percent and bull prices by 11 per- Circle (Kayes Region), Bankass and Koro Circles Prefecture. cent, but goat prices remained stable. These (Mopti Region), Macina and Ségou Circles price increases can be attributed to sales for the (Ségou Region), and Diré Circle (Tombouctou Niger mid-March festival of Tabaski. A decrease is ex- Region). In Koro and Mopti Circles, millet prices Preliminary harvest estimates of off-season gar- pected after the festival. have fallen to 30 to 35 FCFA per kilo, the lowest den production from the Ministry of Rural since the devaluation of the FCFA in 1994. Farm households would have to sell a ton of millet to Off-season Gardening as a Coping Mechanism buy one medium sheep. In Diré Circle, the rice- growing area of Tombouctou Region, rice prices in Niger are so low some farmers are unable cover pro- ff-season gardening has evolved in Niger as a coping transformation of perishable vegetables for storage is gen- duction costs. Omechanism to deal with fluctuations in rainfed agri- erally not possible,and only a fraction can be eaten.This The last time Mali experienced large sur- cultural production.The Government of Niger has been pro- year,as in previous years,garden seeds were distributed pluses was in 1992-93. At that time, donors ex- moting gardening programs since the mid-1970s.For those late due to lack of resources,despite the financial and seed plored the possibility of purchasing Malian Nigerien farmers who have water sources,off-season gar- assistance of the Government,FAO and other donors.In cereals for food aid programs in neighboring dening improves revenues,diversifies the diet,delays the some areas,the seeds distributed were too old to germi- countries. USAID, for instance, was interested in onset of the hungry period and decreases the need for out- nate.This was particularly true of seeds for lettuce and cab- sending Malian cereal to Niger for free food dis- migration in search of supplementary income.Garden bage.Other limiting factors this year included high prices tributions. A study conducted at that time, how- crops,such as manioc and potatoes,are sold and also eaten of fuel,spare parts for irrigation pumps and fertilizer. ever, concluded that it was cheaper to import in place of millet. While market gardening is important for those who grain from the US than to import it from Mali. However,even in areas where off-season gardening is have water sources,unfortunately many needy Nigeriens That was before the devaluation of the CFA possible,it is not a perfect solution.In successful years,har- do not have this option. franc. Subsequent studies have shown that the vest-period market prices of vegetables plummet because devaluation increased the competitiveness of

FEWS bulletin AFR/00-03, March 31, 2000 5 Chad Chad’s recessional sorghum (berbéré) harvest has Current Food Aid Programs in Chad ended in most of the Sahelian zone and is wind- ccording to WFP,1,050 MT of locally purchased ce- the port of Douala (Cameroon) by mid-March for WFP ing down in Am Timan Subprefecture (Salamat Areal is currently being delivered to the eastern Sa- school-feeding programs in the area for this year and Prefecture). The harvest has increased food avail- helian zone subprefecture of Adré (Ouaddaï) for next.WFP has almost 300 MT of assorted food items ability in Sahelian zone markets, and prices are Sudanese refugees and poor Chadians.UNHCR and its such as beans and cooking oil for ACF (Action Contre le seasonably low. The expected surplus should be implementing partner,Catholic Development Aid Faim) nutritional programs in Kanem. adequate to supply Sahelian areas where produc- (SECADEV),will soon start the first of 3 planned distri- The national food security stock currently contains tion shortfalls occurred, such as Batha, Ouaddaï, butions.The last is planned to end in late June. 3,600 MT,and France may authorize the National Cereals Guéra and Biltine Prefectures and even remote WFP reports that distributions to flood victims in Office (ONC) to use its counterpart funds to buy an addi- markets such as Sarh (Moyen-Chari Prefecture). southwestern Prefectures will begin shortly.Some bul- tional 4,000 MT of sorghum.The resulting stock will be Lake Chad water levels neared last year’s gar wheat (1,200 MT) remains from last year’s distribu- distributed to populations identified as highly food inse- record level. As a result, improved fish production tions to southern Prefectures and WFP is considering cure by SISAAR (Système d’Information pour la Sécurité is expected around Lake Chad and along the using this to start the current distribution.Another Alimentaire et l’Alerte Rapide) of the Action Committee Chari and Logone Rivers. In general, market gar- 3,500 MT of soy-fortified corn meal is expected to reach for Food Security and Crisis Management (CASAGC). dening prospects are also aided by higher Lake levels, and that, combined with fishing produc- and wheat are both cash crops in the area. second consecutive year. However, bush fires are tion, should improve household incomes in these Prospects look good for maize during the off- reported to have destroyed pastures in a large areas. However, although higher water levels will season that starts in March. strip extending from Arada to Moussoro in the be beneficial in the long run as fields that have In the Sudanian zone, recessional agriculture is northern part of the Sahelian zone. Fortunately, at been dry for years become usable, in the short not traditional. Although berbéré cultivation is be- this time of year few animals would normally be term, some farmers are suffering. According to the coming more common, it is unlikely that it can present in the area. Lake Chad Development Society (SODELAC), the eliminate local food access problems. Farmers in Prices in N’Djaména markets are lower than area planted to wheat has decreased because the southwest affected by floods or low prices for those observed last year. The berbéré harvest will fields were lost to rising Lake levels. Nonetheless, their cash crops will need food assistance during increase availability in the Sahelian zone and the net result is more usable farmland, with the hungry season (see food aid programs box). should keep prices there stable for the next 2 SODELAC reporting increased sugar cane cultiva- Pastures and surface water for animals are months. tion near the western part of the Lake. Sugar cane abundant throughout most of Chad for the

Southern Africa

outhern Africa has endured a series of fierce waterlogging and leaching of nutrients in Serima, represents a 13 percent increase over 1998/99 Scyclones that struck the region in mid-Janu- Chikwanda and Gutu Central communal areas in and 19 percent over the 1990s average. Area ary and continued into mid-March. Heavy rains Gutu District, and in some parts of Masvingo and planted to maize increased 8 percent over last and flooding have resulted. Of the countries cov- Zaka Districts (Masvingo Province). In Chivi, year and 20 percent over the average for the ered by FEWS, Mozambique and, to a lesser ex- Mvuma and Shurugwi Districts (Midlands decade. The largest increases in area planted are tent, Zimbabwe have experienced severe Province), yield reductions from water logging in millet, sunflower and tobacco. flooding in some areas. and nutrient leaching may reach 30 to 40 per- With the exception of areas experiencing cent. Fortunately none of the flood-affected dis- flooding and therefore dependent on food aid, Zimbabwe tricts are major grain-producing areas. Some current food availability in the communal sector Following 3 weeks of widespread heavy rainfall, pasturelands in the 13 districts have also been is good. Farmers have started to harvest green Cyclone Eline hit eastern and southern Zim- heavily eroded. maize, groundnuts and pulses. At the end of Jan- babwe during the last week of February, causing The Government has declared a disaster in uary, the Grain Marketing Board and major grain severe floods and extensive damage in 13 dis- these areas. Immediate needs include food and millers had over 448,000 MT of maize meal in tricts of Matebeleland South, Masvingo, Midlands shelter for affected households. Dams, roads, stock, enough to cover all requirements for this and Manicaland Provinces (figure 2). The extent bridges and irrigation structures will need to be marketing season (April-March), including addi- of damage and actual figures of people affected rehabilitated in the medium- to long-term. The tional relief needs. are still being debated, but they currently stand Government’s preliminary estimate of the total In general, food access is better for urban than at 500,000 people affected, with an estimated rehabilitation costs is about Z$ 600 million for rural consumers. Maize prices in rural markets 96,000 people directly affected, including 20,000 (US$16 million). This figure could change as the (Z$ 11.20 per kg) are much higher than in urban displaced. About 100 deaths have been reported. situation unfolds. markets (between Z$ 4.83 and Z$ 5.66 per kg). The flooding has also washed away crops and is Official harvest estimates from the Crop Fore- expected to affect crop yields in these areas. The casting Committee will be available only by the Zambia Department of Agricultural Technical and Exten- end of March or early April. However, preliminary Zambia experienced reduced rainfall in early Feb- sion Services (AGRITEX) estimates that yield re- pre-flooding estimates from AGRITEX field re- ruary throughout most regions. Rainfall improved ductions could be as high as 50 percent in ports indicate that the total area planted in all mid-month while becoming very heavy during affected areas. The heavy rains have resulted in farming sectors was 2.8 million ha. This the last 10 days.

6 FEWS bulletin AFR/00-03, March 31, 2000 Despite reduced rainfall in the first dekad of February, soil moisture remained adequate for Southern Africa—Areas of Heavy Rains and plant growth. Field reports from Cooperative Flooding League of USA (CLUSA) and CARE indicate that February 1–10, 2000 February 11–20, 2000 crops are generally in good condition in their Democratic project areas of Central and Southern Provinces. Republic of the Congo Tanzania Most maize is in the grain-filling stage, while early-planted maize has reached maturity. The Angola Zambia sorghum crop is also in good condition. In the Malawi drier parts of Monze District, farmers sowed more Zimbabwe Namibia area to sorghum this year compared to normal in Botswana Mozambique response to dry conditions early in the season. In Mkushi and Chibombo Districts (Central Swaziland Province), tobacco is in excellent condition and is South Africa Lesotho being harvested. Most soybeans, on the other hand, were planted late because farmers were February 21–29, 2000 March 1–10, 2000 preoccupied with planting and replanting maize. Consequently, CLUSA projects a 40 percent re- duction in soybean yields in the areas where they work. Areas of concern include parts of Kafue Dis- trict (Chiawa areas) and Luangwa District in Lusaka Province where some crops were re- ported submerged in water after the spill gates of Kariba Dam were opened to avoid bursting of Heavy Rains the dam from exceptionally high water levels. Extremely Heavy Rains Areas of Flooding Source: FEWS Teams consisting of the Government and WFP as- Figure 2 FEWS, March 2000 sessed the effect on households, and the Govern- ment has since sent food to affected households. production estimates for the 1999/2000 harvest the height of the normal hungry season, maize is Good-quality maize and meal are readily avail- (May-June). Total maize production is estimated still readily available in the markets. Furthermore, able in the markets. This is an improvement over to be 2,334,000 MT, down 6 percent from last Agricultural Development and Marketing Corpo- what is normally available at this time of year – year’s bumper crop of 2,478,000 MT but 34 per- ration (ADMARC) sales were 63 percent less than the end of the marketing season when maize cent higher compared with the 1995-99 average they were last year at this time. In February in the sold in these markets usually contains weevils. of 1,745,000 MT. Hectares sown to maize ex- North and Central Regions, maize market prices Lusaka wholesalers have been purchasing from panded 3 percent this year compared to last year, rose but remained below the ADMARC consumer Chongwe District (Lusaka Province), Chipata, but the prolonged dry spell experienced in De- price. Normally at this time, market prices are typ- Katete and Petauke Districts (Eastern), Kalomo cember will cause some yield reductions. The ically double the ADMARC price. (Southern) and Mumbwa (Central), indicating worst affected Agricultural Development Divi- Official maize stocks at the end of February that small-scale farmers have begun selling sions (ADDs) are Blantyre in South Region and stood at over 208,000 MT, about 7 times the maize that they had been storing to capture Salima in Central Region, with expected produc- amount available at this time last year. No maize higher late-season prices. The Food Reserve tion reductions of 15 and 27 percent, respectively. imports will be required for the April 2000 to Agency estimates that current stocks held by Other crops have been adversely affected by March 2001 marketing season if the current traders, millers and commercial farmers from last the dry spell as well. Early estimation of rice pro- maize production estimates are realized. season’s harvest are about 76,000 MT. An addi- duction (82,000 MT) suggests a 12 percent de- Annualized inflation rose 7 percent in January, tional 54,000 MT from this year’s early harvest cline compared to last year due to an 11 percent but the current rate of 30 percent is well below should become available during March to drop in yields. However, this represents a 52 per- last year’s level of 42 percent. Urban households May 2000. cent increase over the 1995-99 average of 54,000 will feel some relief since urban inflation dropped MT. Groundnut and tobacco production are ex- 8 percent, but rural households are experiencing Malawi pected to drop 3 and 13 percent, respectively. much higher prices as indicated by a 20 percent Although Malawi experienced moderate to heavy Only sweet potato production is estimated to in- increase in the annualized rural inflation rate. rains in February, cumulative rainfall remained crease, mainly because farmers in Mzuzu and below normal for the Central and North Regions. Shire Valley ADDs expanded production. Cassava Mozambique Karonga District (largely a millet-producing area) production comparisons are complicated by a From late January into March, a series of cyclones in the extreme north has received the least cu- change in reporting units. FEWS is currently caused the worst floods in 50 years in Mozam- mulative rainfall relative to normal (43 percent working with MOAI on developing appropriate bique, inundating much of the south and central below). conversion factors. regions as they moved from Maputo Province In mid-February, the Ministry of Agriculture Consumers are still reaping the benefits of last northward to Gaza, Inhambane, Sofala and Man- and Irrigation (MOAI) released the first-round year’s good maize harvest. Although it is currently ica Provinces. Areas most affected lie along rivers

FEWS bulletin AFR/00-03, March 31, 2000 7 WFP is providing food (maize, beans, veg- Mozambique—Farm Households Mozambique— etable oil and sugar) to 650,000 people in need Affected and Crop Area Lost Population Affected of immediate assistance, 50 percent of whom live Due to Flooding by Floods in Gaza and 27 percent in Maputo Province (fig- Province Families Area Percentage of ure 3). Of these 650,000 people, 200,000 have Affected Lost (ha) Area Sown (ha) been displaced—largely in Gaza and Sofala 1999/2000 Provinces. An additional 300,000 people will re- Maputo 31,290 34,247 41 Gaza 54,080 59,285 25 quire support in the form of food-for-work. By the Inhambane 6,059 6,966 2 end of February, 150 deaths had been confirmed, Sofala 19,083 23,553 13 but the total is expected to climb as waters re- Manica 2,633 2,391 1 cede. On February 10, the Government launched Total 113,145 126,442 12 Zambezi an appeal for US$ 2.7 million. However, joint field Figure 4 Source: SNAP-DINA Manica assessments established additional needs of over 5 0 Lucite US$ 50,000 for emergency relief and rehabilita- According to a recent WFP/UNICEF/MISAU assess- 1 Mucune Sofala Búzi 15 tion covering the period from mid-February to ment of several affected districts in Gaza Macune 12 mid-August. In addition to the traditional donor Province, prices of food and basic necessities have Limpopo Save 23 Gaza countries, several African countries have offered risen dramatically since the onset of the floods. In 50 Inhambane 48 3 assistance, including South Africa, Zambia, Malawi Xai-Xai, the price of rice rose 33 percent; cooking 45 9 17 and Ghana. oil, 42 percent; sugar, 100 percent; and salt, Umbeluzi The National Directorate of Agriculture (DINA) 150 percent. Incomati Maputo KM 27 reports losses of cropland in excess of 139,000 ha, Crops sown in highland areas of the south re- 31 0 100 200 mostly in Maputo, Gaza and Sofala Provinces (fig- gion are in good condition and are in the flower- 13 ure 4). Field assessments are currently underway ing and grain-forming stages. Aside from Affected Areas to update this number and provide a more pre- flood-affected areas of the central region, major Provincial Population cise picture of the damages, relief needs and im- maize-producing areas of the central and north as a Precentage of Total Requiring Emergency Assistance plications for the coming harvest (March-April). regions have received slightly above-normal rain- Vulnerable While cropland losses are 40 percent higher than fall, contributing to good crop development. Displaced those of 1996/97 (100,000 ha), the devastation of Because of the prolonged dry spell in Decem- Source: FEWS/Mozambique property and infrastructure is estimated to ex- ber, farmers in Cabo Delgado Province lost and Figure 3 FEWS, March 2000 ceed 1996/97 levels by an even greater margin. replanted 44,000 ha of crops. These crops are or on flood plains. Rivers creating the greatest These production and asset losses will have sig- starting to emerge. Although the dry spell also amount of damage include the Incomati, Um- nificant negative effects on households’ short- negatively affected maize in parts of Zambezia beluzi, Limpopo, Save, Búzi, Lucite, Mucune and and long-term food security. Province, cassava is performing well. Gaza and In- Mussorize (figure 3). The situation is currently Floods are affecting food availability and ac- hambane Provinces have good potential for sec- most critical in Chokwe and Xai-Xai Districts in cess through crop losses and yield reductions, on- ond-season production, but timely seed Gaza Province. farm stock losses, livestock mortality and reduced distribution is needed. commodity flows from surplus to deficit areas.

The FEWS bulletin is published for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Africa Bureau, Office of Sustainable Development, Crisis Management Response Division (AFR/SD/CMR), by The FEWS Project. Project No. 698-0491 (Contract No. AOT-0491-C-00-5021-00). Contractor: Associates in Rural Development, Inc., Burlington,Vermont.

Electronic hypertext versions are available at http://www.info.usaid.gov/fews/fews.html This document should not be construed as an official Agency pronouncement. Comments and suggestions regarding the FEWS bulletin should be addressed to the FEWS Director at the address below. FEWS Project ARD, Inc. 1611 N. Kent Street, Suite 1002 Arlington,VA 22209 USA Telephone: 703-522-7722 Fax: 703-522-7729 E-mail: [email protected] URL: http://www.info.usaid.gov/fews/fews.html

FEWS bulletin AFR/00-03, March 31, 2000