VOL.1, NO.2 DECEMBER 2013 ISSN : 2311-0635 OPINION A JOURNAL OF THE ARMED FORCES WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY, PAKISTAN EDITORIAL BOARD Patron Major General Hidayat Ur Rehman HI(M) Chief Editor Cdre Ayaz Ahmed Nasir SI(M) Editor Brig Muhammad Shahbaz Khan Assistant Editors Gp Capt Chaudhary Ahsan Rafiq, PAF Capt Naeem Sarwar, PN Lt Col Adnan Ahmed Khan Lt Col Jehanzeb Akhtar ADVISORY BOARD Dr Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema Dean Faculty of Contemporary Studies NDU Islamabad Dr Syed Bashir Hussain Head of the Department Government & Public Policy FCS, NDU Islamabad Head of the Department Leadership & Management Dr Tahir Masood Studies FCS, NDU Islamabad Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed Chaudhry Head of the Department Peace & Conflict Studies FCS, NDU Islamabad Dr Zulfiqar Khan Chaudhry Head of the Department Strategic & Nuclear Studies FCS, NDU Islamabad Dr Muhammad Khan Head of the Department International Relations FCS, NDU Islamabad AFWC Journal (OPINION) is sponsored and edited by the Armed Forces War College (AFWC), National Defence University Islamabad, Pakistan. Manuscripts and editorial communications may be directed to: Chief Editor, OPINION Armed Forces War College National Defence University Sector E-9, Islamabad Pakistan http://www.ndu.edu.pk DISCLAIMER Statement, facts and opinions mentioned in AFWC Journal are solely of the authors and do not imply the official policy of the Institution, Editors or Publishers. OPINION Vol.1 No 2 December 2013 MESSAGE OF PATRON According to Greek Philosopher, Heraclitus of Ephesus, there is nothing permanent except change. Today’s world is transforming at an unprecedented pace. In this era of growing uncertainty, enormous challenges that confront us require mastering the skills of strategic thinking to navigate change effectively. The year long academic curriculum covering policy and strategy formulation with emphasis on national security and defence at Armed Forces War College provides an opportunity to course members to enhance their ability to think independently and sharpen their analytical skills. The intellectual pursuits include extensive research on global / regional and national security issues along with in-depth study of military strategy. The premise of publication of OPINION is to benefit from the research work of the members presented in the shape of group/individual research papers, seminars and military history presentations. This being the 2nd edition of OPINION, I am sure will prove to be a repository of reference material for those in pursuit of excellence on matters of national importance and military significance. I am confident that with continued tradition of research and reflection, this journal will greatly assist the larger group of researchers and scholars. I acknowledge the efforts of the members of the course, faculty and the editorial board in publication of this journal. I extend my appreciation to ISSRA and FCS for their value addition. Major General Hidayat Ur Rehman HI (M) Commandant, Armed Forces War College NDU, Islamabad OPINION Vol.1 No 2 i December 2013 CHIEF EDITOR’S CORNER I am extremely pleased to be a part of 2nd edition of ‘AFWC e-Journal’. It is a collection of research work conducted by members of National Security and War Course (NSWC) 2012-13. An endeavour has been made to present researched facts and opinions to enhance awareness about global and national security issues. As per the format, the research work of the panels / individuals has been divided into four distinct parts. Part-I covers the global/regional issues; Part-II discusses the national security aspects, while the third part focuses on the military strategy. The last part highlights the views of individual writers on contemporary issues and challenges vis-à-vis needs of the domestic / global policy formulation. I am grateful to all those involved in the production of this e-Journal. I hope it will be a constructive contribution towards NDU’s vision of enhancing, nurturing and developing intellectual and professional capabilities in the field of national security studies. Commodore Ayaz Ahmed Nasir SI (M) Chief Editor OPINION AFWC Journal OPINION Vol.1 No 2 ii December 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-I Global / Regional Issues Page Emerging Economies and their Growing Influence in Global Politics 1 Global Maritime Security Challenges in 21st Century 13 Politics of Asia Pacific and US Strategic Interests 30 India’s Balancing Act: Relations with the US, Russia and China 41 Part-II National Security Global Geopolitical Scenarios in Short, Medium and Long Terms – 54 Implications for Pakistan Indo-US Ties in Afghanistan; Myths, Realities and Implications for Pakistan 68 Religious Extremists’ Narrative in Pakistan 85 Balochistan; A War of Narratives 99 Civil-military Relations - A Case Study (2008-12) 115 Part-III Military Strategy Eastern Strategic Thought, with Focus on Sun Tzu - Relevance in the 127 Contemporary World Intelligence Wars- Indirect Approach with Direct Strategy 145 Part-IV Views Offensive Deterrence in Non Kinetic Domain 157 OPINION Vol.1 No 2 iii December 2013 PART – I Global / Regional Issues Emerging Economies and their Growing Influence in Global Politics Global Maritime Security Challenges in 21st Century Politics of Asia Pacific and US Strategic Interests India’s Balancing Act: Relations with the US, Russia and China OPINION Vol.1 No.2 December 2013 EMERGING ECONOMIES AND THEIR GROWING INFLUENCE IN GLOBAL POLITICS Introduction Considering their rising economies and increasing participation in global politics, BRICS countries are progressively achieving influence in the international affairs. Dealing with the role of these upcoming economic powers along with transforming worldwide institutions will become a critical issue for an effective global governance system. 1In general, an incremental approach with the mindset of supportive stake holders might serve BRICS better to change the current world order in a more amicable way. Though, the BRICS countries are generally viewed as regional powers, their leadership is often challenged within the region or by powers of other regions. Aim To analyse future scenarios for global politico – economic, influence and role of emerging economies. Historical Perspective of Global Politico Economic Influence Assertions of economic and political influences at the global level have been exercised through cumulative effects of all elements of national power of a particular state or alliance of states. In this part, an effort has been made to establish a historical linkage of the power of various countries in the 19th and 20th centuries with which they influenced the behaviour of other countries. It is very interesting to note that various countries relied on different dimensions of power to exercise power. It is, therefore, fair to suggest that power or influence is relative, conditional and contextual. WW II and Emergence of Bipolar World At the news of the US entry in to the war, Winston Churchill openly rejoiced and with good reason. As he later explained it, ‘Hitler’s fate was sealed. Mussolini’ fate was sealed. As for the Japanese, they would be ground to powder. All the rest was merely the proper application of overwhelming power. The key events of December 1941 entirely altered the balances; the Russian counter-attack at Moscow showed that it would not fall to Blitzkrieg Warfare; and the entry of Japan and the United States into what was now a global conflict brought together a ‘Grand Alliance’ of enormous industrial – productive staying power.2 The Power Struggle During the Cold War As it turned out, a large part of the international politics over the following two decades was to concern itself with adjusting to the Soviet – American rivalry and then OPINION Vol.1 No.2 1 December 2013 with its partial rejection. In the beginning, the Cold War was centered upon remaking the boundaries of Europe. Russia’s strategic and political position was most likely to be enhanced if it could create other Marxist – led states which looked to Moscow for guidance. Such considerations probably dominated the Soviet policy in the post – 1945 world. A major element in the Cold War was the increasing arms race between the two blocs, alongwith the creation of supportive military alliances. In terms of monies spent, the trend was by no means an even one. The enormous surge in American defence expenditures reflected the costs of the Korean war and Washington’s belief that it needed to rearm in a threatening world; the post – 1953 decline was Eisenhower’s attempt to control the ‘military – industrial complex’ before it damaged both society and economy; the 1961 – 2 increases reflected the Berlin Wall and Cuban missile crises; and the post 1965 jump in spending showed the increasing American commitment in Southeast Asia.3 Demise of Cold War and Emergence of US as the Sole Super Power Radical reforms in family law and education were introduced by the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), a Communist group. Criticism from Islamic leaders eventually turned into an armed struggle. Soviet Union tried to back the PDPA for almost nine years against nationalist Islamic movement by Islamic warriors known as ‘Mujahideen’. The Mujahideen were aided by the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Pakistan. Surface to air missiles of US tilted the balance in Mujahideen’s favour; and the Soviets pulled out in 1989.4 Relations between the two super powers were renewed after the meeting between the US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in Moscow in 1988. 5 The two leaders decided to end the Cold War that created an opening for changes.6 The revolutions of 1989 in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union was the result of the decision to end the Cold War.7 Reunification of Germany came into being in 1990, following the collapse of Communist regimes in the late 1980 and early 1990. While the Warsaw Pact collapsed, Germany remained member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.