Global Change Research in Germany 2008

German National Committee On Global Change Research

NKGCF Imprint

Published by German National Committee on Global Change Research (NKGCF) Department of Geography Luisenstraße 37 D - 80333 Munich phone ++49 (0) 89 21 80 65 92 fax ++49 (0) 89 21 80 99 65 92 [email protected] | www.nkgcf.org

Image credits (front cover): J. Browning, ioFoto.com, A. Gulzar, J. Gutt, S. Knight, F. Kraas, H. Lehmannova, J. McIntosh, G. Niewiadomski, R. Schuster, O. von Straaten, M. Thyssen, S. Wunderlich

Concept and Editorial Work Bettina Höll Wolfram Mauser Jutta Bachmann (linguistic editing) » www.jbachmann-consulting.com «

Authors and Contributors Joseph Alcamo Norbert Jürgens Jochem Marotzke Meinrat Andreae Johannes Karte Wolfram Mauser Mariam Akhtar-Schuster Elisabeth Kalko Michael Schulz Dietrich Borchardt Martin Kaltschmitt Ralf Seppelt Ulrich Callies Gernot Klepper Peter-Tobias Stoll Wolfgang Cramer Stefan Klotz Georg Teutsch Christoph Görg Frauke Kraas Paul Vlek Bernd Hansjürgens Hartwig Kremer Gerold Wefer Martin Heimann Stefan Kroll Wolfgang Weisser Gisela Helbig Jos Lelieveld Hans von Storch Daniela Jacob Peter Lemke Steffen Zacharias

Layout Scientific Secretariat of NKGCF (K. Schmid)

Production DRUCK PUNKT Munich » www.druck-punkt.com «

Editorial Note The selection of introduced projects and programmes represent and exemplify German research activities on Global Change. Please note that several more projects and programmes in Germany address Global Change research.

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) for the printing of this publication. Global Change Research in Germany 2008

edited by Bettina Höll and Wolfram Mauser on behalf of the German National Committee on Global Change Research (NKGCF)

Munich, 2008 Abbreviations and Acronyms

ACACIA Arid Climate and Cultural Innovation FZK Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe / Research MARCO- Marine, Coastal and Polar Systems in Africa Centre Karlsruhe POLI ACSYS Arctic Climate System Study GAIM Global Analysis, Integration and Model- MARUM Zentrum für Marine Umweltwissenschaften AIMES Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling of ling / Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences the Earth System GBF Gesellschaft für Biotechnologische MICE Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes ARGO Array for Real-Time Geostrophic Ocea- Forschung / German Research Centre for MPG Max-Planck-Gesellschaft / Max Planck nography Biotechnology Society ATEAM Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis GCP Global Carbon Project MPI Max-Planck-Institut / Max Planck and Modelling GDP Gross Domestic Product Institute AVEC Assessment of Vulnerable Ecosystems GECAFS Global Environmental Change and Food NADW North Atlantic Deep Water under Global Change Systems NEP Net Ecosystem Production AWI Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar- und GECHS Global Environmental Change and Hu- NKGCF Nationales Komitee für Global Change Meeresforschung / Alfred Wegener Insti- man Security Forschung / German National Comittee tute for Polar and Marine Research GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of on Global Change Research BIOLOG Biodiversity and Global Change Systems PAGES Past Global Changes BMBF Bundesministerium für Bildung und GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experi- PDF Probability Density Function Forschung / German Federal Ministry of ment PIK Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgen- Education and Research GFZ GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam forschung / Potsdam Institute for Cli- BOD Burden of Disease GHG Greenhouse Gas mate Impact Research BSH Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht / Re- REM Regional Environmental Model Hydrographie / Federal Maritime and search Centre Geesthacht RSV Research and Supply Vessel Hydrographic Agency GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar CARIBIC Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investiga- GLOWA Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle tion of the Atmosphere Based on an SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Instrument Container GLP Global Land Project GNI Gross National Income SFB Sonderforschungsbereich / Collaborative cCASHh Climate Change and Adaption Strategies Research Centre GPS Global Positioning System for Human Health SOLAS Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study CITES Convention on International Trade in GSF Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und SPARC Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Endangered Species Gesundheit / National Research Centre Climate CLiC Climate and Cryosphere for Environment and Health GWSP Global Water System Project SPP Schwerpunktprogramm / Priority CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability Programme COCE Conservation and Use of Wild Popula- HALO High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft STORMA Stability of Tropical Rainforest Margins tions of Coffea arabica in the Montane in Indonesia Rainforests of Ethiopia HLRE Höchstleistungsrechnersystem / High Performance Computing System UBA Umweltbundesamt / Federal Environ- COSMOS Community Earth System Model mental Agency DALY Disease-Adjusted Live Year ICBM Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres / Institute for Chemistry and UFZ Umweltforschungszentrum / Centre for DEKLIM Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm / Biology of the Marine Environment Environmental Research German Climate Research Programme ICSU International Council for Science UN United Nations DFG Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft / Ger- UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biologi- man Research Foundation IDGEC Institutional Dimensions of Global Environment Change cal Diversity DKRZ Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum / Ger- IEA International Engery Agency UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat man Climate Research Centre Desertification IFM- Leibnitz- Institut für Meereswissen- DLR Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raum- UNEP United Nations Environment Programme fahrt / German Aerospace Centre GEOMAR schaften / Leibnitz Institute of Marine Sciences UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst / Germany’s on Climate Change National Meteorology Service IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme USP Unit Stream Power-Based Model ECO- Institut für Internationale und Eu- LOGIC ropäische Umweltpolitik / Institute for IHDP International Human Dimensions VAS- Variability Analysis of Surface Climate International and European Environmen- Programme CLIMO Observations tal policy IMBER Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and WBGU Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Globaler EEA European Environment Agency Ecosystem Research Umweltveränderungen / German Advi- sory Council on Global Change EOS Earth Observation System IMPRS International Max Planck Research School WCRP World Climate Research Programme ESF European Science Foundation IOW Institut für Ostseeforschung WDCC World Data Centre for Climate ESSP Earth System Science Partnership Warnemünde / Baltic Sea Research Insti- WGCM Working Group on Coupled Modelling EU European Union tute, Warnemünde WHO World Health Organisation FEU Forschungsstelle für Europäisches IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Umweltrecht / Research Centre for Euro- Change WMO World Meteorological Organisation pean Environmental Law ISSC International Social Science Council WTO World Trade Organisation FFU Forschungsstelle für Umweltpolitik / IT Industrial Transformation YLL Years of Life Lost Environmental Policy Research Centre ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone ZEF Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung / FhG Fraunhofer Gesellschaft / Fraunhofer Centre for Development Research Association KDM Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung ZMAW Zentrum für Marine und Atmosphäri- fona Forschung für Nachhaltigkeit / Research LOICZ Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone sche Wissenschaften / Centre for Marine for Sustainability and Atmospheric Sciences FZJ Forschungszentrum Jülich / Research LUCC Land-Use Cover Change MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ZMT Zentrum für Marine Tropenökologie / Centre Jülich Centre for Tropical Marine Ecology Table of Contents

section page title

I Introduction 1 Global Change Research – Science for a Sustainable Future

II Science Issues 3 Water Cycle and Water Availability 5 Biodiversity 7 Global Change in the Ocean 9 Polar Research 11 Drylands and Desertification 13 Coastal Zone Management 15 Carbon Cycle Research 17 Atmospheric Changes 19 Land Use Change 21 Megacities 23 Global Change and Health 25 Extreme Events 27 Energy – Mobility – Climate 29 Governance and Institutions 31 Observing Systems 33 Modelling the Future 35 Past Records of Global Change

III Framework 37 German Contributions to International Global Change Programmes and ESSP 39 Research Funding and Institutions 44 Future Research 45 Members of NKGCF 2006 – 2008 Global Change Research – 1 Science for a Sustainable Future

Global Change summarises the effects Global Change of humankind’s growing interference with the Earth System. This interference, Over the past few decades, evidence originate from human activities, ranging both on the global and regional scale, has been growing that planetary- from the artificial fixation of nitrogen has greatly increased during the last scale changes are occurring very and the emission of greenhouse gases century. rapidly. These are, in turn, changing to the conversion and fragmentation the patterns of forcings and feedbacks of natural vegetation and the loss of Human Beings and the Environment that characterize the internal dynamics biological species. It is these activities of the Earth System. Key indicators, and others like them that give rise to the Global Change is triggered by the increase such as the concentration of CO2 in the phenomenon of Global Change. in human population and exacerbated atmosphere, are changing dramatically, by a rapid development of technologies and in many cases the linkages of these Source: Steffen, W., Sanderson, A., Jäger, J., that utilise natural resources. Human changes to human activities are strong. Tyson, P.D., Moore III, B., Matson, P.A., Richardson, beings basically developed the ability It is increasingly clear that the Earth K., Oldfield, F., Schellnhuber, H.-J., Turner II, B.L., to satisfy the major needs of a still System is being subjected to a wide Wasson, R.J., 2004, Global Change and the Earth range of new planetary-scale forces that System. A Planet Under Pressure. growing population, commanding tools and developing technologies for the production of a large variety of industrial development, the Earth’s ability to natural variability of the Earth System goods, as well as mechanisms to create further support life and deliver natural and the causes, mechanisms and effects extraordinary wealth in certain regions goods and services to human societies is of the complex interactions between its of the world. Given the vigorous force as important as economic growth and components and the human population. and mostly uncoordinated fashion these social development. It is particularly concentrated on the per se positive developments have taken understanding of the evolution and the place, it is not surprising that adverse The Earth System: Challenges and impact of the processes that trigger and phenomena are beginning to show. Strategies drive change and on finding possible Human interaction with the Earth Enormous progress has been made alternatives for dealing with change System is affecting the climate of the over the last decades in understanding in a constructive way. Global Change planet, altering its water cycle, causing the parts and processes making up our research develops procedures that the disappearance of non-renewable natural environment, including the make the distinction between natural resources and starting to stress the life- atmosphere, oceans, land surface and variability and real changes as well as support system of the planet (Figure 1). biosphere. Considerable contributions provide prognostic abilities to foresee have been made by an international changes and their consequences, to There are no signs of a deceleration or research community under the umbrella identify options for counteraction and reversal of this development. Therefore, of the International Council for to balance adaptation to change and coping with the adverse phenomena Sciences (ICSU) and the International mitigation of causes. In this respect, of Global Change becomes a major Social Science Council’s (ISSC) four scientific progress can only be achieved challenge for human societies. Since international Global Change research through interdisciplinary approaches. human activities cause, are affected by programmes (World Climate Research Global Change research relies on so- and alter change simultaneously, it is Programme, WCRP, International phisticated observation systems to not just changes in the global climate Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, IGBP, identify changes and optimise decision system that have to be analysed, but DIVERSITAS and International Human alternatives at the earliest possible the Earth System with its physical, Dimensions Programme, IHDP). The stage. biogeochemical and socio-economical outcomes have led to a deeper and more processes has to be considered as a detailed understanding of the past and Questions of Scale whole. present functioning of the Earth as Both global and regional strategies have a system as well as of the nature and to be developed in order to balance the There is no alternative to sustainable dynamics of the interaction between interaction between humans and the development as a long-term strategy to humans and nature. Despite this Earth System and at the same time to cope with the consequences of Global progress, the intellectual complexity ensure a sustainable development of Change. In a widely accepted common related to the questions about pathways human societies. It is on the regional/ understanding, sustainable development of sustainable development and how national level where decisions that is based on the balanced fulfilment of they can be identified and implemented promote sustainable development are current needs without impairing the has been largely underestimated. most likely to be implemented and opportunities and interests of future where action occurs. The focus on generations. In the context of sustainable Global Change research analyses the regions and common efforts to bridge 2

the gap between global perspectives on development” and by the quantity of research community has also identified change as well as the analysis of regional implementable knowledge and advice. priority areas and key questions where impacts and the development of regional Research from German scientists has German scientists with their specific sustainable management options must contributed to the advances in Global qualifications can best contribute to therefore be intensified. Change research in the past. The German the international efforts to bring the National Committee on Global Change very challenging practical questions Prospects Research (NKGCF) has compiled the of Global Change research closer to a The success of Global Change following overview of German Global solution. research will be judged by its ability Change research. NKGCF with its close to operationalise the term “sustainable ties to the international Global Change

Species Extinctions Temperature

Human Population Carbon Dioxide Billions of People

10,000 5,000 0 Time (before 2005)

Nitrogen Land Cover Percentage of total Land Area of total Percentage Global N Fixation (Tg/yr) Global N Fixation

Figure 1: Selected aspects of Global Change: Changes of atmospheric composition, temperature, biodiversity, nitrogen fixation, population, land cover. Sources: | Nitrogen: Vitousek, 1994, Beyond global warming: Ecology and Global Change, Ecology 75: 1861-1876 | Species Extinction: Reid and Miller, 1989,

The scientific basis for the conservation of biodiversity, World Resources Institute, Washington DC | CO2*: Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset panels). Measurements are shown from ice cores (symbols with different colours for different studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines). The corresponding radiative forcings are shown on the right hand axes of the large panels (IPCC, 2007: WG1- AR4) | Human Population: International Database, U.S. Bureau of the Census | Land Cover: Rik Leemans, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Bilthoven & Frank Oldfield, Developing a fast-track global database of land-cover history, LUCC Newsletter No. 5, 2000 | Temperature*: Published records of surface temperature change over large regions. Brohan et al. (2006) time series are anomalies from the 1961 to 1990 mean (°C). More detailed information in IPCC 2007: WG 1-AR4 Figure 1.3. | Information has been compiled by IGBP and *IPCC. » www.ipcc.ch« » www.igbp.kva.se « 3 Water Cycle and Water Availability

Water, and in particular an adequate both managed and natural ecosystems. societal development and to manage supply of clean freshwater, is one of the In the most affected regions, water adaptation to change on the regional keys to the future development of human shortages have already ignited severe level, the GLOWA research initiative beings on the planet. Clean drinking political and cultural conflicts, e.g. in the (see box) as well as the Integrated Water water is the most important factor for Middle East, between the US and Mexico, Resources Management Initiative human health and therefore vital for the and in several parts of Africa and Asia. (IWRM) was launched by the German survival of societies. At present, one third Federal Ministry of Education and of the human population relies on low In an attempt to capture some of Research (BMBF). quality drinking water. Despite strong the complexity of competing water international efforts in recent years, demands, changing water availability GLOWA contributes to the creation it has not been possible to reduce this and disappearing aquatic habitat, of the regional knowledge necessary to fraction of the population reliant on low researchers have built models of the form a global knowledge base on water. quality drinking water. Freshwater is also global water system. The German It also prepares the necessary tools to needed in considerable quantities and research community is taking a leading facilitate an integrated and sustainable defined quality for industry and energy role in this exciting task, for instance, management of regional water resources production. By far the largest consumer as part of the EU-funded international taking into account the natural and of freshwater is agriculture. Agriculture consortium WATCH (Water and cultural specialities of the regions under translates water consumption by crops Climate Change, www.waterandclimate. consideration. GLOWA feeds into a directly into yield and food. org) and through various BMBF and more global perspective, where issues DFG projects. Model-based research like the trade of virtual water, which Clean freshwater for agricultural, at these institutions has provided many is consumed or transformed through industrial and household use is supplied new insights into the global water agricultural and industrial production, by the Earth’s life support system, namely system, including the location of critical have to be taken into account, as well physical, biogeochemical and biological areas of increasing water abstraction, as the effects of changing patterns of cycles on the land surface, in surface or the relative impact of climate change global atmospheric circulation on the groundwater and in the oceans. These on water resources in different regions distribution of rainfall. To approach contain the most powerful and cost around the world, and the future this broader perspective, the four efficient water treatment and supply agents of change in the system (Figure international Global Change research process known to man, outperforming 1). Global models developed at these programmes (WCRP, IGBP, IHDP all other known manmade water institutions have shown that an increase and DIVERSITAS) have agreed to treatment technologies. Nevertheless, in water withdrawals related to economic establish the Global Water System water technologies play an important, growth is likely to put more pressure Project (GWSP). GLOWA is a German yet expensive role in supporting nature on world water resources over the contribution to the GWSP (see chapter to maintain its productivity. next few decades than climate change. German Contribution to International Nevertheless, model calculations have GC-Programmes and ESSP, page 37). In order to run smoothly, the Earth’s life also indicated that climate change will It will provide important parts of a support system itself is critically reliant become an increasingly important actor scientific picture of the global water on sufficient water, space and diversity. as the century proceeds. cycle, eventually serving as a base for Global Change is putting increasing sustainable management strategies of stress on this system as more and more In order to develop management skills global water resources. land and water resources are put into to adapt to the upcoming climatic and increasingly intensive production. As a result, the conflict between the Figure 1: Agents of change in the demand for water to sustain a growing global water system. Shaded areas indicate where water population, the demand for water to withdrawals are computed grow renewable energy resources and to increase between 2000 and 2055 under the IPCC A2 nature’s demand for water to sustain the scenario (WaterGAP model natural water cycle is escalating sharply. calculations). Different shad- In almost all populated parts of the ings indicate the water use sector that contributes most earth, the current use of water resources to local increases in withdrawals. is more or less unsustainable, resulting Source: Alcamo, J., Floerke, M. Maerker, M. 2007b. Future long-term changes in global water in diminished natural reserves for the resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes water cycle. This, in the long run, will Hydrological Sciences. 52(2): 247-275. most likely damage the productivity of 4

GLOWA (Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle)

Programme Duration: 2000 – 2010 as well as considering developmental, Aquifer recharge from melting snow Funding: BMBF cultural and political differences between water in summer will be reduced, which regions, it aims at giving regional decision- together with reduced rainfall and The GLOWA initiative was launched as a makers the tools to ensure a sustainable increased evapotranspiration will lead to 9-year research programme and aims at use of their water resources. GLOWA works droughts in an area, where today no water developing integrated water resources in different regions of the globe. stress symptoms are discernable. This management tools, which enable the First results from climate change impact may force farmers into irrigation, which study of both natural and human impacts studies on water resources (e.g. within accelerates the depletion of the aquifers. on the water cycle at the regional level of GLOWA Danube) using complex scenarios This may considerably affect river flow large watersheds. Simulation models are show that regions under current water and water availability downstream in the developed and used within GLOWA to treat stress will not be the only ones to be river Danube in Austria, Hungary, Romania complex scenarios of how determining affected. The Figure below shows the and Bulgaria, which calls for an integrated factors in the water cycle will change in the severe impact of the IPCC-A1B climate management of both agricultural and future. By quantifying the simultaneous change scenario on snow storage in industrial water use in the Danube river impacts of future changes (e.g. rainfall, the alpine region of the Upper Danube. basin. temperature and population structure),

GLOWA Danube IMPETUS GLOWA Volta GLOWA Jordan GLOWA Elbe Integrative Techniques, An Integrated Approach Sustainable Water Use, Global Change and Inte- Global Change Impact on Scenarios and Strategies to the Efficient Manage- Changing Land Use, Rain- grative Water Resources Environment and Society for the Sustainable Water ment of Scarce Water Re- fall Reliability and Water Management in Arid Re- in the Elbe Region Management in the Up- sources in West Africa Demands in the Volta gions Coordination: PIK Pots- per Danube Coordination: Cologne Coordination: Bonn Uni- Coordination: University dam Coordination: University University versity (ZEF) of Tübingen of Munich (LMU) » www.glowa.org «

Number of days with more than 50 mm of snow water storage Scenario simulations of the average annual snow cover in the German and Austrian Alps of the Upper Danube basin. The simulations show the decadal change in the number of days with a snow storage of more than 50 mm over the course of one century from 1961 to 2060. The IPCC A1B scenario was used for determining the course of the CO2-emissions and temperature development. A severe and spatially heterogeneous decrease in snow storage can clearly be identified from the year 2019. This will drastically affect energy production through reduced river flows especially during summer as well as having a dramatic effect on winter tourism, one of the largest industries in the watershed.

IWRM Mongolia (Integrated water resources management in Central Asia exemplified for a model region in Mongolia)

Programme Duration: 2006 – 2009 tion of freshwater resources including water resources, diffuse pollution, -min Funding: BMBF the development of measures and their ing, water supply and wastewater treat- implementation using a transdisciplinary ment in rural and urban areas, protection Mongolia is proposed as a model region management approach. Furthermore, it of ecological functions and nature con- for the development, solution and imple- is proposed to implement IWRM on three servation) and that can be addressed in a mentation of integrated water resources scales: (1) a specific river catchment (river meaningful way, (2) the scale of other riv- management (IWRM) in Central Asia. The Kharaa/Darkhan) with a representative er catchments in Mongolia, (3) the scale basic concept of this proposal is the inte- range of water problems (impact of glo- of other catchments in Central Asia. grated consideration of uses and protec- bal climate change, overexploitation of » www.IWRM-momo.de « 5 Biodiversity

Biodiversity is an essential resource bioDISCOVERY: Mata Atlântica for the maintenance of our global life Assessing current levels of biodiversity; support system. Within the Earth Sys- developing the scientific basis for moni- Programme Duration: 2002 – 2009 tem, biological processes “play a much toring and observing, understanding, Funding: BMBF and predicting change stronger role than previously believed in The programme Mata Atlântica aims keeping the Earth’s environment within bioDISCOVERY focuses on developing to develop strategies and action plans habitable limits” (IGBP). Living organ- tools and infrastructures for assessing the for the conservation, sustainable isms generated the oxygen atmosphere. spatial dimension of current biodiversity, management and use of endangered Evolution and adaptation of organisms monitoring change, understanding remnants of the Brazilian Atlantic have turned most of the globe into pro- the processes of change and predicting forest. These strategies will be based on interdisciplinary research and provide a ductive ecosystems, controlling fluxes of future biodiversity changes. German long-term vision. water, carbon, nitrogen and providing activities within bioDISCOVERY focus The application of scientific results goods and services necessary for human on the development and establishment should improve the efficiency of life. Therefore, the dramatic decline of of standardised biodiversity observation measures to protect the biodiversity biodiversity on all levels (ecosystems, sites on a local, regional and global scale of the Mata Atlântica, and thereby species richness, genetic diversity) is (see BIOTA AFRICA and Observation provide an ecological basis for regional threatening not only the potential use of Systems). landscape planning, in order to promote the persistence and regeneration of the the areas that are thus degraded, but it European Networking – The typical biodiversity within this region. might also entail many cascading effects » www.pt-uf.pt-dlr.de/en/160.php « and negative long-term consequences ALARM Project for ecosystem functions and adaptation The ALARM (Assessing LArge Scale potential within the Earth System. In Risks for Biodiversity with Tested Jena Experiment view of the rapid decrease in biologi- Methods) project is the only integrated cal diversity, research is needed that can project on terrestrial and freshwater The Role of Biodiversity for Element generate positive influences on such biodiversity within the 6th Framework Cycling and Trophic Interactions: An developments. The main goals of bio- of the EU that is coordinated in Experimental Approach in a Grassland diversity research have been formulated Germany. The consortium combines Community within the science plan of the DIVER- the expertise of 68 partners from 35 countries. Project Duration: 2002 – 2008 SITAS programme (www.diversitas- Based on the search for a better Funding: DFG international.org) integrating biodi- understanding of terrestrial and The long-term experiment in Jena versity science for human well-being. freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem studies the interactions between plant functioning, ALARM develops and It consists of four core projects that diversity and ecosystem processes, tests methods and protocols for the are implemented as part of German focussing on element cycling and assessment of large-scale environmental research activities. trophic interactions. risks in order to minimise negative 60 plant species, native and common to direct and indirect human impacts. the Central European Arrhenatherum bioGENESIS: » www.alarmproject.net/alarm « Documenting biodiversity, its diver- grasslands, serve as species pool. sification and the effects of human- The species assemblages serve as a basis to study interactions not only induced changes Networking – Diversitas Germany among plant individuals and plant This new core project will focus on sig- species, but also between the different nificantly expanding our baseline data Diversitas Germany is a scientific trophic levels. In addition, special on species identities, distributions and network that identifies problems attention is paid to the ecosystem phylogenetic relationships, as well as in- relating to the safeguarding of carbon balance and the turnover and creasing our knowledge of the relevant biodiversity and the sustainable use loss of nutrients. underlying evolutionary processes. For of its goods and services. Diversitas Aerial view of the field site Germany supports the implementation this purpose, new strategies and tools of the aims of DIVERSITAS International for discovering and documenting bio- and the UN Convention on Biological diversity need to be developed. The Diversity (UNCBD) through the German dynamics of diversification will be ana- National Committee on Global Change lysed from an evolutionary viewpoint, Research (NKGCF). The national network and there will be a follow-up of the evo- strengthens links with international lutionary biology of human-induced research partners for innovative and interdisciplinary research. environmental changes. » www.diversitas-deutschland.de « J. Baade 6

ecoSERVICES: ecoSERVICES’ research projects focus, social, political and economic drivers Expanding scientific research into bio- for example, on the risks arising from of biodiversity loss, as well as social diversity and ecosystem functioning climate change, environmental chemi- choice and decision-making onto a larger scale and over a greater cals, biological invasions and pollinator However, there is not enough scien- breadth of the biological hierarchy; loss in the context of current and future tific knowledge to guarantee the swift linking changes in ecosystem structure European land use patterns, the role of and efficient protection of our planet’s and functioning to changes in ecosys- functional diversity on ecosystem func- biota. A central field of Germany’s con- tem services; assessing human response tions, and on the connection between tributions to bioSUSTAINABILITY is to changes in ecosystem services ecosystem services, their use and eco- research into the protection of biodiver- Biodiversity plays a crucial role for economic valuation (see Jena Experiment, sity in cultural landscapes (see BioTeam, system functioning, and thus for the DFG Exploratories, ALARM and Mata BfN-projects). provision of ecosystem services (e.g. Atlântica). climate regulation, carrier functions BioTeam for agriculture, carbon sequestration, bioSUSTAINABILITY: or ground water recharge). On a global Developing new knowledge to guide Programme Duration: individual Funding: BMBF scale, but often even locally, ecosystem policy and decision-making that sup- functioning constitutes critical natural port the sustainable use of biodiversity; The BioTeam research initiative capital that can hardly be substituted evaluating the effectiveness of current “BIOsphere Research – InTEgrative and by human-made capital. In Germany, conservation measures; studying the Application-Oriented Model Projects” is tackling three core issues: 1. Can a price be put on biological BIOLOG (Biodiversity and Global Change) diversity? 2. How can the benefits deriving from The objective of BIOLOG, initiated by the BIOTA AFRICA the use of biological diversity be fairly German Federal Ministry of Education Project Duration: 2000 – 2010 distributed? and Research (BMBF) in 1999, is to arrive Funding: BMBF, DS&T and other African 3. Is biological diversity in Germany at a better understanding of the role of contributions also under threat? biological diversity in ecosystems and Several projects investigate the BIOTA AFRICA forms an Africa-wide develop strategies for a sustainable use potential of the UNCBD Ecosystem scientific network which develops of biological diversity in cooperation with Approach and the Access and Benefit scientific support for sustainable use and international partners. BIOLOG consists Sharing mechanism. For example, conservation of African biodiversity. The of one project focuses on the threat to network integrates the activities of more • BIOLOG Europe, exploring the effects the last populations of wild coffee by than 80 institutions with 395 co-workers of increasing changes on biological land use change (Conservation and from 13 countries. Core topics are (a) the diversity in the European landscape, Use of Wild Populations of Coffea measurement of change of biodiversity • BIOTA Africa, with contributions from arabica in the Montane Rainforests of as related to drivers and pressures, with and in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote Ethiopia, CoCE, another on process- specific foci on land use and climate d’Ivoire, Dem. Rep. Congo, Germany, oriented development of a model for change, (b) the analysis of processes and Kenya, Maroc, Namibia, South a fair benefit-sharing for the use of mechanisms of change, (c) the production Africa and Uganda, aims at a holistic biological resources in the Amazon of user-friendly tools for decision- scientific contribution towards lowland of Ecuador (ProBenefit). makers supporting sustainable land- sustainable use and conservation » www.coffee.uni-bonn.de « use management, the transformation of the biodiversity of the African » www.probenefit.de « of scientific results based on decision continent. » www.pt-uf.pt-dlr.de/en/157.php « support modules, capacity development and learning partnerships. » www.pt-uf.pt-dlr.de/en/158.php « » www.biota-africa.org « Risks for Protected Areas under Climate Change DFG Exploratories Project Duration: 2006-2009 Funding: German Federal Agency for Recently, the DFG has established three Schorfheide-Chorin Biosphere Reserve Nature Conservation (BfN) exemplary large-scale and long-term (NE Germany), at the Hainich National research sites called biodiversity explo- Park and surrounding area (centre of Risk assessment of nature conservation ratories that address critical questions Germany), and in the upcoming Schwä- goods facing climate change, about how different types of land use bische Alb Biosphere Reserve (SW Ger- differentiated for species, habitat types affect biodiversity and how biodiversity many), focussing on grassland and forest and regions as well as the development change impacts ecosystem processes. ecosystems. of recommendations on a management The exploratories are situated at the » www.biodiversity-exploratories.de « as well as political scale. 7 Global Change in the Ocean

The ocean is the Earth’s largest reservoir North Atlantic. Hydrographic observa- can only provide snapshots of observa- of heat and climatically active gases, tions show that water properties and the tion in space and time. Therefore, it is which it stores and exchanges with the deep wintertime mixing in the Labrador important to develop automatic obser- atmosphere. Therefore, the ocean has a Sea have experienced strong changes vation systems capable of measuring decisive influence on our climate. The (Figure 1). The intensity of the win- and relaying to shore relevant informa- North Atlantic is one of the sensitive tertime deep-water formation is deter- tion in real time. Satellite observation of spots in ocean dynamics, with prime mined by the competition between the the ocean surface is of course a major importance for our climate. The North heat loss associated with cold westerly tool in this respect. However, the deeper Atlantic thermohaline circulation is winds and the input of low-salinity wa- ocean layers are much more difficult to responsible for heat transport far north ter from the Arctic. Future climatic observe, and present efforts are directed on the eastern side of the Atlantic, change and increasing ice melt will have towards the development of observation supporting a relatively mild climate in the potential to significantly decrease technology to trace critical changes in northern Europe as well as the formation the intensity of deep-water formation in physical, chemical and biological pro- of deep water that sequesters significant the North Atlantic, with consequences cesses. As an intermediate step between

amounts of anthropogenic CO2 in the for the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 ship-based and autonomous observa- interior of the ocean. and heat transport to northern Europe. tion systems, moored instruments provide time series of crucial circulation A great deal of effort has been directed Unlike on land, there are very few possi- parameters, such as the strength of the towards understanding the variability bilities to observe changes in the ocean. thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic of the current system in the northern Usually, each cruise by a research ship at 26.5°N (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Flow of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) from the source (red dot) into the Atlantic. (a) The black line shows the eastward mass transport [in mega- tons per second] between the central Labrador Sea and Bermuda, in the depth range: 0–2000 metres. The red bars show LSW formation rates (Sv, 1 Sv corresponds to 1 megaton per second). (c) Temperature time series of LSW source water. Source: Institute for Environmental Physics, University of Bremen; Kieke et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06605, doi:10.1029/ 2006GL028959, 2007

The North Atlantic as Part of the Earth System: From System Comprehension to Analysis of Regional Impacts

Programme Duration: 2006-2009 Funding: BMBF (Cooperative Project) The overall objective of the project is to specify an observational and diagnostics system capable of determining the impact of large-scale variability on regions of the North Atlantic, its adjacent seas and the European continent itself. The intention is to improve the qualitative and quantitative prediction capabilities of application-relevant models. The cooperative project uses measurements in the Atlantic to describe its current state, as well as links to other measurement campaigns. In addition, there is a status description as a function of time via models, and an assessment of large-scale variability effects on regional social and economic conditions in Europe. Schematic of the North Atlantic » www.zmaw.de/index.php?id=105 « circulation. Quadfasel, Nature, 438, 565-566, 2005 8

Figure 2: (top) Distribution of instruments at the western and eastern boundaries of the North Atlantic near 26.5°N that are used for computing the thermohaline circulation. The location of the mooring sites can be seen in the small insets. (bottom) Daily time series of Florida Straits transport (blue), Ekman transport (black), upper mid-ocean transport (magenta) and overturning transport (red) for the period from March 29, 2004 to March 31, 2005. Overturning transport is the sum of the Florida Straits, Ekman and upper mid- ocean transports and represents the maximum northward transport of upper layer waters on each day. Source: Cunningham et al., Science, 317, 935–938, 2007, and Kanzow et al., Science, 317, 938–941, 2007

Excellence Cluster “The Future Ocean”

Programme Duration: 2006-2011 THE IMPLEMENTATION scientists, economists, mathematicians, Funding: DFG (Excellence Initiative) The work of the scientists in the Kiel Cluster chemists, legal experts and social of Excellence ”Future Ocean” is aimed at scientists. A total of five faculties and 26 THE TASK examining the changes in the oceans and institutes at Kiel University, the Leibniz The ocean is extensively used and altered re-assessing the risks and opportunities Institute of Marine Sciences at the by mankind. Fishing and the combustion that will arise from the ocean for the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR) and the of fossil fuels cause a multitude of changes future. The long history of marine science Kiel Institute for World Economics (IfW) that can already be observed and that research in Kiel is the perfect background as well as the Muthesius Academy of Fine will have consequences yet unforeseen for broadening scientific horizons and Arts are participating in this Cluster. It will in both the near and distant future. This is taking an interdisciplinary approach to establish the marine research focus at Kiel another reason why a global management the pressing research at hand. A large University and thus raise the university‘s of the oceans and their resources leading group of scientists from the most diverse profile as a leading centre for marine to a new symbiosis between man and the disciplines has joined forces in this Cluster research. sea is urgently needed. to explore the future ocean together. The Cluster encompasses not only marine » www.future-ocean.de « researchers, but also geologists, medical 9 Polar Research

Earth System variability and change is driving changes, e. g. by altering global mainly a result of weak external forcing albedo while growing or shrinking.

and strong internal feedbacks within They also act as palaeoclimate archives. AWI C. Haas, the Earth System. Predominant areas Polar ice cores are unique because, of in this regard are polar regions which all palaeo-records, they are the most play a special role within the Earth Sys- directly linked to the atmosphere and tem. They are characterised by very low they contain information for many temperatures, marked seasonality, huge forcing factors of climate. Polar marine continental ice shields, large oceanic ar- ecosystems and organisms are special eas permanently or seasonally covered in that they survive under conditions by sea ice, and massive and deep-reach- of permanent cold, extreme seasonality ing permafrost layers. The polar regions and food shortage. react sensitively to climate change on the one hand, but on the other they Changes in the sea ice cover, as part of govern global climate evolution on a the surface freshwater flux, also play an broad range of timescales as well as important role within the system. The having a direct influence on global sea physics of sea ice is also influenced by the level change, hence impacting coastal fact that it is a habitat for many species regions. Due to extremely long recovery of marine flora and fauna. Sea ice is an cycles, polar ecosystems are highly sus- effective channel of primary productivity ceptible to perturbation. of small algae to stocks of large animals Figure 1: Thickness distribution of extensive sea ice thickness measurements in the Arctic (PDF: despite harsh environmental conditions. Probability Density Function). The particular significance of polar Excellent global satellite observations of regions is highlighted by the fact that the extent of sea ice are available for the about 90% of the volume of the world’s past three decades and they indicate a oceans, comprising the deep cold waters, significant retreat, especially in summer. is connected to only 10% of their surface Large-scale measurements of sea ice area, and most of these ventilation thickness, on the other hand, are still windows lie in the polar regions. Very hugely challenging. An electromagnetic specific physical and chemical processes technique to measure the thickness of shape the high latitudes, which influence sea ice floes has been developed which the global environment and its changes is now also used from helicopters, thus through atmospheric and oceanic covering larger distances than previously of Dresden University Technical R. Dietrich, teleconnections. Examples are the possible. During six expeditions with formation of cold air above the white, the research icebreaker Polarstern, an highly reflective snow and ice surfaces extensive dataset has been collected and the production of cold, dense water which indicates a thinning of the sea masses which drive global atmospheric ice cover between Spitsbergen and the and oceanic circulation; the seasonal North Pole from 2.5 m in 1991 to cycles of sea ice extent and thickness 2.0 m in 2004 and to 1.0 m in 2007 with resulting changes in ocean- (Figure 1). Figure 2: Interferomeric SAR (Synthetic Aperture atmosphere coupling; and the specific Radar) analysis gives a detailed picture on horizontal ice velocities (region of Schirmacher conditions for chemical reactions in the Ice sheets store a significant amount of Oasis, central Dronning Maud Land, Antartica). stratosphere during polar winters. fresh water. Accordingly, their variations have a big impact on the height of Of special importance is the The Antarctic Circumpolar Current sea level with major consequences for understanding of the interaction between system effectively isolates the Southern coastal regions. A special focus is now atmosphere, ice, ocean and land surfaces, Ocean, whereas continents surround put on the outlet glaciers and ice streams their variability, and their impact on the Arctic Ocean with only one deep- of the polar ice sheets, since there are the marine and terrestrial ecosystem. water passage. Continental ice sheets are recent indications that, in some cases, Important research questions are the a further special characteristic, acting as the ice discharge is increasing. With the effects of environmental variability on integral parts of the climate system by help of radar interferometry, horizontal ice the stress tolerance and resilience of polar responding, on the one hand, to changes velocities are determined (Figure 2), which organisms and ecosystems. High-latitude in external forcing and on the other hand are then converted to mass flux data. organisms and ecosystems (Figure 3) are 10

highly adapted to polar climate regimes by acclimation (of the individual) the species composition and functional as well as prevailing ice conditions. This and adaptation processes (between properties of ecosystems during climatic makes them particularly sensitive to generations). The capacity and limits change. ongoing warming and acidification of of acclimation and adaptation differ Figure 3: Antarctic invertebrate assemblage, the oceans, which additionally occur between species and climatic regions. colonising the sea floor at a water depth of 230m. The inset shows an Antarctic icefish (photographs at faster rates at polar latitudes than at For a cause and effect understanding by J. Gutt). The assemblage includes pioneer spe- lower latitudes. Previous research at the of climate impact, further efforts need cies such as sea squirts, horny corals and worms, molecular, physiological and ecological to work on elaborating the mechanistic which recruit and grow soon after disturbance events, as well as young and slow growing adult levels of biological organisation has background of, and the reasons for, such glass sponges. Icefish (inset) occur predominantly established the concept of oxygen- and differences. This will also support reliable in high latitude Antarctic habitats since they are capacity-limited thermal tolerance in forecasting of future developments in adapted to low temperatures and, as a consequence, highly sensitive to warming. marine animals. This concept allows the quantification of the first signs of warming stress felt by individual specimens. It also links performance characters of the organism to the functional properties of the ecosystem, and contributes to explaining the role each species plays in the complex interaction web that makes up an ecosystem. Building on this principal insight, current research elaborates the climate-dependent evolution of polar marine ecosystems, from foraminifera to mammals, through the functional characters of their organisms. Organisms can modify the mechanisms involved in shaping tolerance to ambient extremes J. Gutt, AWI/MARUM Research Infrastructure

German polar research relies on a sophisticated infrastructure for operations in Polar Regions including research vessels, aircraft and research stations both in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Research and Supply Vessel “R/V Polarstern” An important tool in Germany’s polar research programme is the “Polarstern”. Since she was first commissioned in 1982, the “Polarstern” has completed a total of 22 expeditions to the Arctic and 24 to the Antarctic. The ship is equipped for biological, geological, geophysical, glaciological, chemical, oceanographic and meteorological research, and contains nine research laboratories. Additional laboratory containers may be stowed on and below deck. Refridgerated rooms and aquaria permit the transport of samples and living marine fauna. Research equipment and measuring instruments are positioned with the help of cranes and winches, sometimes at extreme depths. Special sounding devices with depth ranges up to 10,000 m and which can penetrate up to 150 m into the sea floor are available for

scientific investigations. The computer system on board continuously captures and stores Photo: G. Chapelle, Source: Alfred Wegener Institute meteorological, oceanographic and other data as required. » www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/ships/polarstern «

Neumayer-Station The first “Georg von Neumayer” Station in the Antarctic, run by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), was established in 1981 on the Ekströmn Ice Shelf as a research observatory for geophysical, meteorological and air chemistry measurements, as well as a logistics base for summer expeditions. Through funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the new polar station Neumayer III is currently being constructed in the Antarctic. The new station, which is made of environmentally compatible materials, supplies a space of 3,300 m2 and will be completed in 2009. » www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/stations/neumayer_station_iii « Source: Alfred Wegener Institute 11 Drylands and Desertification

“Desertification”, i.e. land degrada- Scientific Cooperation tion of arid to semi-humid ecosystems, Desert*Net Germany and European DesertNet “resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human The German Scientific Network to The network believes that the dialogue activities” (UNCCD), poses one of the Combat Desertification (Desert*Net) is between science and policymakers most challenging threats to the continu- an association which was founded as an should be strengthened and Desert*Net ed development of society. interdisciplinary scientific network that works in close cooperation with the serves as an interface for communication United Nations Convention to Combat and knowledge transfer to prevent and Desertification (UNCCD). In October 2006, Drylands make up 41% of the world’s combat desertification (www.desertnet. a series of international meetings led to land surface, and a third of the human de). The expertise of Desert*Net the foundation of European DesertNet, population (figures from 2000) lives in Germany is based on an interdisciplinary an international scientific network for these drought- and desertification-prone group of scientists with long-term field global desertification research. The areas (Figure 1). These ecosystems, and laboratory experience in basic and European DesertNet has strong support ranging from pastoral desert margins to applied research into desertification from the EC’s DG RECH. Several European in over 40 countries. The major aims of ministries have declared that this new some key agricultural regions (including the network are to support bilateral and network is important to furthering the irrigated areas), are characterized by a multilateral activities for sustainable research process in the combat against very high sensitivity and vulnerability land use systems in degraded areas and prevention of desertification. when exposed to declining rainfall or of developing or transition countries. » www.european-desertnet.eu « unsustainable land use. Making the distinction between the two causes of ecosystem. The cost of agricultural losses calls for mitigation strategies. The degradation remains a serious scientific alone due to desertification are estimated cost of land restoration by far exceeds challenge. The Millennium Ecosystem at $28 billion annually. The Earth the cost of preventing human induced Assessment (2005) estimates with medium System Science Partnership on Global degradation. Thus, a key scientific certainty that approximately 10-20% of Environmental Change and Human challenge is to distinguish the causes of the drylands – between 6 million and 12 Health estimates that 250 million people degradation. million km² – are already degraded, other are at risk of health consequences from Human induced desertification is reports claim a “greening of the Sahel” desertification. Whereas desertification caused by land mismanagement such as since the drought of the early 1980ies due to global climate change calls for Figure 1: Desertification leads to a degradation adaptive measures, mismanagement of Overlap of urban areas with the four dryland of the function and productivity of the land resources can be prevented and categories. 12

overgrazing, deforestation, or nutrient the local realities of the affected areas cated both on a local and global scale. mining, erosion and salinisation due as well as the complex interaction with Research on desertification and related to cultivation. Superimposed climate external actors. Such research should issues in Germany involves various in- change may lead to non-linear feed- be implemented with the involvement stitutes and universities, covering a wide backs that depend on ecosystem proper- of both local and regional stakeholders range of disciplines, research regions ties thus rendering the system complex. and the findings should be communi- and countries. Desertification involves processes and mechanisms on various scales, ranging Economic and Ecological Restructuring of Land- and Water Use in from the single field or pasture to the the Khorezm Region global biosphere. Similarly, decision- makers are found at various levels, from Project Duration: 2002 – 2011 tillage methods, and the planting of local farmers to global players in world Funding: BMBF hedges and windbreaks), economic aspects (investigation of economic trade. Combating desertification, thus, Since the 1920s, irrigation for cultivation incentives for saving water, privatising calls for integrated approaches and in Uzbekistan, which involves taking water land and developing markets) and legal- measures, based on knowledge derived from the Aral Sea, has been continuously administrative factors (e.g. investigation intensified. Up until now, water has from natural as well as socio-economic of decision structures and water been delivered through extensive scientific disciplines. allocation mechanisms). irrigation systems, which are expensive » www.zef.de « to maintain, and the monocultures have In many developing countries desertifi- been heavily treated with fertilisers and cation is emerging as a major obstacle pesticides. Nevertheless, the population Irrigation equipment. to sustainable development and poverty is still exposed to low water availability, reduction. It particularly impacts rural soil degradation and salinisation, in households whose economic stability economically centralised structures. relies on the quality and quantity of The basic idea behind the project is to follow an integrated, interdisciplinary their natural resources. The loss in pro- approach, taking into account natural ductivity of the land increases rural po- resource management (integrating verty and intensifies the competition for plantations, e.g. locally favoured use and access to increasingly limited poplars for wood production; adapting natural resources. Conflicts and migra- agricultural production methods, e.g. tion are often the consequence of these improvement of irrigation techniques, ZEF processes. Environmental refugees cross national borders in search of new eco- BIOTA Southern Africa nomic perspectives whilst at the same time exporting conflicts and tensions. Project Duration: 2000 – 2009 Funding: BMBF Important fields of research are: The BIOTA South projects in Namibia • monitoring land resources by re- and western parts of South Africa are investigating the changes in biological Namibia: Grazing can have a strong impact on mote sensing and airborne systems, the composition of plant cover. The photo shows • understanding the causes, processes diversity caused by humans as well as by the Duruchaus farm in central Namibia (right- climate change. To this end, 25 observa- and mechanisms of desertification, hand side of the fence) where intensive grazing tories have been set up over an area of by a high number of sheep and goats caused • modelling and predicting future 2,000 km2. differences in the species composition of the changes, The observation zones are differentiated, vegetation compared to the neighbouring farm (cattle farming): On the right-hand side, there • establishing early warning systems, on the one hand, by their different cli- is less cover of perennial grasses and palatable • developing preventive strategies mates and vegetation and, on the other dwarf shrubs. through sustainable management of hand, by varying intensities of agricultural use. Socio-economic and ecologi- 20 years of cattle 20 years of sheep natural resources, cal thresholds that characterise adverse • developing adaptive forms of land management can thus be identified. use to cope with the impact of The BIOTA South project also shows how climate change, the surface of the land has changed over • developing rehabilitation techniques the long-term along the line of observa- for degraded systems. tories. Contributory factors here include farming use, deforestation, the impact of fires and excessive grazing. This research agenda requires an -inte » www.biota-africa.de « grated approach, taking into account D. Wesuls / BIOTA AFRICA 13 Coastal Zone Management

As areas of socio-ecological one area of focus of the newly formed 13 countries (‘BALTEX Assessment of development and transition, coastal transdisciplinary cluster of excellence Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin zones are subject to the influence of the ‘Integrated Climate System Analysis (BACC)’; http://www.baltex-research. ocean, the atmosphere and the land. and Prediction’ (CLISAP) which eu/BACC/) was accepted by the Helsinki They encompass drainage basins, coastal involves around 120 researchers from Commission for the Baltic Sea as a lowlands, estuaries and the adjoining universities and research institutions. foundation for political discussion. A shelf seas. In common with most of similar exercise, which is expected to be the world’s coastline, the North and Assessing the effects of regional and concluded in 2010, has been launched Baltic Sea coasts, which are the focus of local climate change and evaluating the for the extended metropolitan region German research activities, can hardly necessity, feasibility and efficiency of of Hamburg. An interim synthesis be regarded as natural environments. options for adaptation is a key challenge of continuing studies on long-term They have already undergone major for global change science. It requires the ecological change in the German Bight modifications caused by human activities, correct differentiation between the effects is planned as part of the new Helmholtz specifically land reclamation, coastal brought about by climate change and research programme ‘Polar Regions and defences and industrial developments. the consequences of ongoing pressure Coasts in the Changing Earth System’. The latter resulted in both qualitative from old and new forms of human land The research will be carried out from and quantitative changes of emissions and sea use. Hence considerable effort is 2009 to 2013 (www.gkss.de). to coastal seas. Ongoing threats to water being put into building a re-trospective quality originate from contamination by picture of climatic evolution during Multi-decadal high-resolution re- hazardous substances, eutrophication the past decades using long time series analyses of environmental conditions and oil spills. Global Change and model-based analyses of climate from state-of-the-art numerical implications on the regional scale would variables and dependent para-meters. models play a prominent role in the be another, more indirect, manifestation An IPCC-like assessment report for reconstruction of past conditions. Model of the anthropogenic impact on coastal past, current and possible future climate data are the only way to obtain regional zones. The prediction of the possible change and its impact on terrestrial information with no gaps in space consequences of a changing climate for and marine ecosystems put together and time. The coastDat portal (www. the North-German coastal regions is by approximately 80 scientists from coastdat.de) is a platform that hosts homogeneous and consistent sets of ICZM-Oder/Odra high-resolution hindcasts for the coastal an integrated river basin – coast – sea approach in a changing world region. These retrospective analyses are complemented by plausible model-based Duration: 2004-2010 • How long would it take to reach a coastal scenarios for the near future. To Funding: BMBF certain status and how will the status further support management decisions and all measures be influenced by The interdisciplinary national project climate and regional change? on a regional scale, atmospheric global on coastal management “ICZM-Oder/ change scenarios are processed for the Odra” has one major focus on integrated » www.ikzm-oder.de « North Sea and finally broken down into water quality modeling, assessment and potential impact levels, for example with management. Rivers and their drainage basin control processes and water quality Tourism is the major source of income at regard to surface waves, storm surges or in the coastal zone. Climate change and the Oder/Odra estuary. Increasing storm transport rates of water constituents. surges and beach erosion as well as water ongoing transformation processes in quality problems due to climate change are agriculture have serious consequences a serious economic threat. Besides climate forcing, different forms on nutrient fluxes and loads in the rivers. of human modification of the coastal • How do different stakeholders environment including land- and sea- perceive water quality and what are their specific demands? based use of natural resources (harbours, • Which measures in the river basin oil and gas exploitation, wind energy, will be necessary to reach a “good” minerals, fisheries, aquaculture) or their water quality status in coastal waters utilisation for recreational and conser- (according to the Water Framework vational purposes inevitably provoke Directive) and which nutrient sources conflicts of interest. A sustainable use of have to be tackled preferably? coastal zones requires rational and inte- • What are the costs for different water quality scenarios and how would a grated management balancing human cost-efficient approach look like? activity with the requirements of ecosystem conservation. Integrative studies Schernewski 2007 of interactions between different human 14

activities and the coastal ecosystem are serves to better understand the role of Successful integrated management of the main focus of two ongoing project the changing coastal environment for coastal zones, however, also requires clusters (see boxes).Their affiliation ecosystem function and biodiversity, thus interfaces that facilitate a two-way with the international coastal research for ecosystem goods and services, and is exchange of concepts, concerns, questions project ‘Land-Ocean Interactions in the crucial for the adequate construction of and knowledge between the climate Coastal Zone’, LOICZ (http://www. scenarios of possible future developments research community and the general loicz.org), (operating in contribution to on decadal and longer timescales. In this public. Changing public perceptions the International Geosphere Biosphere context, one of the greatest challenges and preferences have to be taken into Programme and the International Hu- is the task of ascribing observed account by researchers. To achieve this man Dimensions Programme on Glo- environmental trends to either climate goal the ‘Norddeutsches Klimabüro’ bal Environmental Change) opens exchange or direct anthropogenic pressure. (www.norddeutsches-klimabuero.de) change and review with scientific peers was founded in 2006 as one node of worldwide in a global context. The above coastal research approaches a network of similar regional offices. have been adopted within the programme The objective of the office is to identify Coastal zones have always been topic ‘Coastal Dynamics and Causes of and satisfy the information needs of threatened by weather extremes such Change’ of the Helmholtz programme a multiplicity of coastal stakeholders. as storm surges, flooding and wave ‘Marine, Coastal and Polar Systems The spectrum of information to be activity. The traditional perception of (MARCOPOLI)’. Through shared transmitted encompasses comprehensive these threats within society is something current and future research on projects analyses of regional climate conditions effective coastal zone management must such as LOICZ and IMBER (Integrated including possible trends. The office also take into consideration. Stakeholders, Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem aims to provide context and explanation including the media and the public at Research), there is ample opportunity of basic concepts such as natural climate large interpret scientific statements on for exchange between scientific peers variability, detection of human-induced Global Change within a socio-cultural on a global level. Thus, each individual change and attribution to causes, scenarios framework. In addition, scientific country’s research contributes directly and uncertainty. Located at the science- knowledge, due to vested interests, to the implementation of the scientific practice interface it will help both to political as well as economical, frequently projects of Earth System Science better identify practice-oriented aspects undergoes significant transformation partners such as IGBP, IHDP and in climate research and to communicate before entering the public arena. Socio- the Scientific Committee on Oceanic the outcomes of such research to a wider cultural sciences need to explore and Research, SCOR. non-scientific audience. comprehend such transformations in the effort to put them into the context Zukunft Küste – Coastal Futures of social choice and decision-making. Analysing coastal socio-ecological systems and related governance structures in times of global change

In order to scientifically underpin an Duration: 2004-2010 • analysing social values, problem informed integrated management of Funding: BMBF perceptions, institutional networks coastal zones, fundamental research and communication, The project cluster “Zukunft Küste – on climate, shelf sea oceanography, • analysing and assessing related Coastal Futures” works towards integrated policies and governance structures. biogeochemical processes and cycles, assessment for coastal changes. Based on ecological chemistry, as well as ecosystem the notion of socio-ecological systems, » www.coastal-futures.org « and biodiversity, must be integrated the application of the Driver-Pressure- with applied perspectives, including State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach the regional impact of global change and the concept of ecosystem services, the processes. Appropriate observational cluster focuses on risks and opportunities associated with offshore wind farms in the monitoring strategies are implemented German North Sea as an example for sea use combining efficient instrumental (in- change. Key activities include: situ and remote) measuring systems • discussing future sea use patterns with model-assisted data analysis to using a scenario approach, document ongoing change and trends. • modelling and assessing impacts Regional environmental models (REMs) of offshore wind energy on specific ecosystem services, analysing recent and historical data • modelling and assessing economic assist in determining the background impacts of offshore wind energy at of natural system variability and local local and regional scale, particularities. Process knowledge REpower Systems AG Carbon Cycle Research 15 as a Challenge of the Anthropocene

Fossil organic carbon deposits in the High spatial resolution models that role in the enhanced growth of forests, form of oil, coal, methane gas or peat are couple physical ocean processes with especially young forests. presently being used at an ever-increasing biological and chemical processes show rate as humankind’s main energy supply. that there is a strong fluctuation in An observation system for monitoring

The CO2 released by the burning of the uptake of CO2 from year to year, and quantifying large-scale regional these fossil fuels is a climatically active mainly caused by variations in wind changes in carbon fluxes and stocks gas influencing the Earth’s heat balance. stress and heat flux which affect the on the European continent and the Rising surface temperatures and changes biological fixation of carbon. Changes North Atlantic Ocean has been set up in climatic conditions are consequences in the intensity of deep-water formation, in recent years within the framework of

of the mounting CO2 concentrations climatic fluctuations and shifts in the two European integrated research in the atmosphere. This real danger has biological production significantly alter projects CarboEurope-IP (www. precipitated intensive research into the the carbon uptake and, therefore, it carboeurope.org) and CarboOcean-IP natural and anthropogenically influenced cannot be assumed that the ocean is a (www.carboocean.org). This observation carbon cycle as well as its relevance constant sink for anthropogenic carbon. system will provide (1) regional to global society. Only about 50% of information on carbon sinks, their

the emitted CO2 accumulates in the In contrast to the ocean, terrestrial carbon magnitude and spatio-temporal atmosphere, the remainder being taken sinks are much more heterogeneous variability, (2) regional information on up by sinks in the ocean and terrestrial in space and time, and are controlled climate - carbon cycle feedback processes ecosystems. It is not clear whether these by a multitude of processes that are and (3) help to independently monitor sinks will continue to exist in the future, still poorly understood. In Europe, the the evolution of the European carbon particularly in the face of a changing carbon balance is determined primarily balance in the context of the Kyoto climate. Therefore, the elucidation by fossil fuel emissions (total of 1.2 Pg protocol and its successor treaties. As of oceanic and terrestrial carbon sink C y-1) for which there is approximately part of the large-scale European research processes and their regional and global 30% compensation by terrestrial carbon infrastructure, the Integrated Carbon quantification is a priority item in carbon uptake in growing forests. On the other Observing System (ICOS) has been cycle research. hand, croplands are losing carbon and established to harmonise high quality hence reducing this terrestrial sink. In carbon observations over the next few In Germany, specific research effort has addition, climate variations strongly decades. been concentrated in the following areas: modify the terrestrial carbon balance. National support for the long-term The investigation of the role of the North Ecosystem model simulations, covering operation of ICOS constitutes a high Atlantic in sequestering anthropogenic the period from 1948-2003, showed a priority and contributes considerably

CO2, the determination of the European significant decrease in carbon uptake in carbon balance, an understanding of the Southern Europe (especially Spain and Figure 1: Concentration of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) in the year 2004 on a transect across impact of climate and land use change Southern France) and Eastern Europe the North Atlantic at approximately 35°N (in on terrestrial carbon fluxes and the during the drought year of 2003 (Figure µmol/kg, from the Caribbean to Portugal). Most of the anthropogenic CO uptake by the ocean development of alternative carbon-free 2). In the aforementioned regions, net 2 results in an accumulation of DIC (Dissolved technologies for energy production. ecosystem production (NEP) declined Inorganic Carbon) in the uppermost 800 m of by more than 100% relative to the long- the water column. Significant accumulations are also evident in the Mediterranean outflow The ocean contains 50 times more carbon term mean. The model results also show waters around 2 km depth in the eastern Atlantic than the atmosphere and, hence, small that enhanced nitrogen deposition, as well as in the western Atlantic below 3 km as part of the deep water circulation sequestering changes in the flux between ocean and increased CO2 concentrations and excess CO2 that has been taken up in the subarc- atmosphere have a very big impact on the moisture availability play an important tic North Atlantic ocean. atmospheric balance of CO2. One of the most important regions for oceanic uptake

of CO2 is the North Atlantic (Figure 1). About 20% of the global oceanic uptake of

CO2 enters this region and is transported into the ocean’s interior by physical processes of deep water formation. In addition to such physical processes, biological uptake and subsequent sinking of organic carbon to deeper waters also contribute to the global oceanic carbon balance. Tanhua et al., PNAS, 2008 16

to the implementation of the Global Figure 2: Anomalies of net ecosystem production (NEP) in 2003 were calculated as the difference between May-September NEP in 2003 and May-September mean NEP for 1998-2002 and are expressed Earth Observation System of Systems as deviation in g C m-2. NEP was calculated with the Lund-Potsdam-Jena ecosystem model. (GEOSS).

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change CarboEuropeIP. (UNFCCC), the vast majority of nations has agreed to a “stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (Art. 2). Whereas original climate policy initiatives have concentrated on the emissions of greenhouse gases gC m-2

– of which CO2 is presently considered to be the most important – it is now apparent that carbon management will need to incorporate the complete carbon cycle and not only atmospheric emissions. Hence, different forms of carbon sinks are being looked into. The Kyoto Protocol already takes account of the terrestrial carbon sink in the form of biomass. Sequestration of carbon in the deep oceans and in geological CARBOOCEAN (Marine Carbon Sources and Sinks Assessment ) land formations are part of the research Project Duration: 01/2005 – 12/2009 contribute to the large scale CO2 sources considerations and a number of test Funding: EU and sinks pattern of the North Atlantic Ocean in relation to uptake within projects already exist. However, there is The aim of CARBOOCEAN is to describe Western Europe? still a considerable amount of research to and quantify the sources and sinks of What are the key biogeochemical be done before sufficient knowledge to natural and anthropogenic CO in the 2 feedbacks that can affect ocean carbon ocean. The project’s main questions are: enable full carbon management becomes up-take and how do they operate? What are the exact dimensions of the available and before policy measures What is the quantitative global and Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO sinks, are developed in order to make such 2 regional impact of such feedbacks when i.e. how efficient is the downward forced by climatic change in the next management feasible. The European transport of carbon in the deep-water 200 years? emissions trading system for CO2 is a production areas of the world’s ocean? first step in this direction. What do European rivers and shelf seas » www.carboocean.org «

CarboEurope: Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance

Project Duration: 01/2004 – 12/2008 involves determining the European carbon 1. Determination of the carbon Funding: EU balance with its spatial and temporal balance of the European continent, its patterns, understanding the controlling geographical patterns, and changes What is the role of the European continent processes and mechanisms of carbon over time. 2. Enhanced understanding in the global carbon cycle? To advance our cycling in European ecosystems and how of the controlling mechanisms of carbon understanding in a multidisciplinary and these are affected by climate change, cycling in European ecosystems, and the integrated way, 61 research centres from 17 variability and human management, impact of climate change and variability, European countries have joined forces for as well as developing an observation and changing land management on the a 5-year EU-funded research project that system to detect changes in atmospheric European carbon balance. began in January 2004 and is coordinated CO concentrations and ecosystem 3. Design and development of an by the MPI for Biogeochemistry, Jena. 2 carbon stocks related to the European observation system to detect changes of CarboEurope aims to understand and commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. carbon stocks and carbon fluxes related quantify Europe’s present terrestrial carbon In order to achieve these aims, CarboEurope to the European commitments under the balance and the associated uncertainty on addresses three major topics: Kyoto Protocol. a local, regional and continental scale. This » www.carboeurope.org « 17 Atmospheric Changes

In the past century, the composition German institutions have been at the DLR of the atmosphere has changed forefront of modelling advancements, dramatically, with direct consequences initially via the development of general for air quality, the earth’s energy budget, atmospheric circulation models. In the protection from ultraviolet radiation, last decade, coupled ocean-atmosphere- weather events and the water cycle, all of land models have advanced and are now which primary conditions for life. It is able to perform transient climate simu- evident that the atmosphere is a central lations and seasonal climate anomaly component in the climate system. In predictions. Also emerging in the last few fact, the atmosphere is a major natural years are the first high-resolution regional transport system for energy, water, coupled models, including interactive nutrients and pollutants, being effective hydrology for detailed regional climate on different space and time scales. scenario calculations.

The main research objective is to establish Computer models are used to analyse the predictive capability required for a complex system feedback through timely response to atmospheric and cli- sensitivity studies, and to predict possible mate change, whether it be anthropo- states of the system. Atmospheric genic or natural in origin. This requires forecasting on short timescales of up to

the extension of the current generation two weeks is optimised by assimilating Figure 1: of computer models into predictive observed data into the model. This limits Airborne research platforms used in atmospheric research, indicating the investigated altitude tools, which can be adequately verified the initial conditions for simulations ranges. and validated through the compari- and provides deterministic information son with observations. A vital aspect is about predicted weather conditions, therefore the expansion of the measure- as well as air quality and ultraviolet ments of key atmospheric parameters. radiation levels. It was recently shown that anomalous weather conditions in Atmospheric research using aircraft has the stratosphere can be forecast with a

a long tradition in Germany (Figure 1). new coupled atmospheric chemistry- ChemistryMPI for In 2009, a new research aircraft, HALO climate model (Figure 2). On longer Figure 2: (see box), will be put into operation. timescales, the atmosphere-climate Model calculation of the unusual vortex split in Satellite sensors are also powerful system is “chaotic” so that forecasting can the stratosphere over Antarctica, 20-28 Septem- ber, 2002 (10 hPa). tools in atmospheric research, adding only provide statistical information. the global perspective. Based on novel data retrieval techniques, German researchers pioneered comprehensive HALO (High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft) sensing of reactive tropospheric gases HALO is financed by the German Federal It will be used for global atmospheric from space. Europe has undergone a Ministry of Education and Research research in the high troposphere and strong expansion in its capabilities of (BMBF), the Helmholtz Association of lower stratosphere for its ability to remote sensing from space thanks to German Research Centres and the Max facilitate operations with a suite of ENVISAT, the largest environmental Planck Society (MPG). instruments at altitudes up to 15.5 km with a range of about 8,000 km. satellite to date. ENVISAT comprises HALO will open up a new quality of ten sensors measuring a multitude of airborne atmospheric research for parameters in the atmosphere and on the German scientists with the potential to earth’s surface, including temperature, perform multi-sensor measurements on large scales, from the tropical rain forest water vapour, concentrations of trace to the remote oceans and the polar constituents and cloud properties. regions.

The synthesis of growing knowledge is advanced through computer modelling. Gulfstream / DLR HALO (Artwork). 18

The atmospheric research community has identified six thematic areas for which work programmes have been developed:

• “Atmospheric self-cleaning capacity and air quality” addresses the hemispheric and global distributions as well as sources/sinks of short- and long-lived chemical components and the changes affecting them. There is a particular need to better understand the role of natural trace gases, the photochemistry of the tropical troposphere and processes in the tropopause region. • “Lower-middle atmosphere interactions and climate” investigates stratosphere-troposphere coupling relating to the ozone layer and climate predictability and their impact on ultraviolet radiation. This area highlights the role of water vapour in the energy budget as well as the dynamics of the stratosphere, and how studies of dynamic interactions with the troposphere may improve long-term weather and climate forecasting. • “Biogeochemical cycles and the climate system” studies atmosphere-biosphere, atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-land exchange processes, in particular in the carbon cycle, and how they link to atmospheric composition and climate change. New aspects in this area are the role of reactive carbon species of natural origin and the coupling of the nitrogen and carbon cycles. • “Aerosols, clouds and the water cycle” focusses on the role of aerosol particles and cloud microphysical processes, convection and the properties of cirrus clouds. The investigations encompass effects of aerosols on the surface energy budget and evaporation, and precipitation formation in convective clouds. • “Extreme weather events”, is particularly concerned with the processes that lead to floods and droughts. The question is how these processes act under climate change, and how precipitation forecasts can be improved. While the overall picture is that global warming is expected to accelerate the water cycle, precipitation may become more intense in some regions and decrease in others. • “Seasonal to interdecadal variability and predictability” analyses the Earth System dynamics and its representation in coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate simulations. The present climate models will be extended into a first generation of Earth System models to be used in scenario simulations and climate forecasts. The level of detail of biogeochemical, aerosol and cloud processes in the models will be based on the thematic studies mentioned above.

CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container)

Project Duration: 1995 – 2013 traffic and by the flux of anthropogenic Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Funding: EU, BMBF emissions from the earth’s surface. Its Karlsruhe and the Leibniz Institute for current total of 1,000,000 flight kilometres Tropospheric Research, Leipzig. To date, CARIBIC is a long-term project aimed at corresponds to 25 circumnavigations the consortium comprises six German the understanding of Global Change of the globe. Highlights of the results to and five European research groups, each in the upper troposphere and lower date are revised global budgets of trace with their own specific experimental or stratosphere. The heart of CARIBIC is an gases, aerosol climatologies, convective modelling competence. automated instrument container with transport of particles and trace gases an ever-increasing number of analyses of » www.caribic-atmospheric.com « over tropical Africa, and mixing processes trace gas and aerosol parameters. This 1.5 between tropo- and stratosphere. The ton payload is deployed on commercial CARIBIC consortium was founded in 1993 aircraft flying on intercontinental routes, by the MPI for Atmospheric Chemistry, Air inlets and video camera at the lower fuse- operating autonomously at altitudes of lage of the Lufthansa A340-600, carrying the Mainz, the Institute for Meteorology and between 8 and 12 km. From 1997-2001, CARIBIC payload. the CARIBIC payload was carried on a Boeing 767 of LTU between Germany and a number of destinations in the Indian Ocean, Southern Africa and the Caribbean. Since 2005, the new partner airline Lufthansa carries CARIBIC on an Airbus 340-600 to longer haul destinations such as South America and Eastern Asia. It is planned that this partnership will last at least ten years. CARIBIC yields systematic long-term intercontinental data on composition and processes in a sensitive region of the atmosphere, which is stressed by the increasing burden of commercial air U. Kröner, Lufthansa 19 Land Use Change

Change in land cover caused by Land use change is a phenomenon that individual human actors are influenced conversion is the most substantial emerges from the interactions between by processes occurring on spatial scales human-induced alteration of the Earth’s various components of the complex ranging from international (e.g. WTO) System. Conversion for farming or human-environment system, which then to local level (local communities). another productive use serves human feeds back to influence the subsequent Most models are currently insufficient well-being, but also causes changes in development of those interactions. and include only a limited number of environmental processes that are shaping Changes in land allocation occur at the components of the feedback loops or the ecosystem functions and services on level of households and plots of land. only work on specific spatial scales. which mankind depends. For example, These short-term/localised changes are For example, spatially distributed soil agricultural intensification as fostered the result of multiple decisions made by erosion models for Ethiopia (box below) by the Common Agricultural Policy individual human actors under diverse have been successfully applied in the (CAP) of the European Union has socio-ecological conditions. Temporal identification of hotspot areas of erosion, increased the effectiveness of agricultural accumulation of short-term changes and but the interactive loop between land production over the last 40 years but spatial aggregations of localised changes use/management and this key ecological has also profoundly changed European generate emergent patterns of both process was not explicitly captured. agroecosystems. Because environmental socio-economic dynamics and land-use Land use/cover in such conventional damage is often very difficult to reverse, changes on the larger scale. Changes on models is treated as a consistent/static research on the consequences of land use the macro level such as infrastructural driver of the soil redistribution processes change needs to be based on proactive or policy interventions influence the and the environmental feedback of such management of land resources with a behaviour of the individuals in a way processes on the behaviour of the person long-term perspective in order to avoid that then produces changes on the micro using the land cannot be addressed. irreversible mistakes. This requires not level. In short, land-use change is a only a sound understanding of the non-linear, dynamic and transformative In Germany, a number of research environmental processes affected by process having multiple-dimensions institutions and universities have land use change, but also scientific tools (space, time and human). departments explicitly focussing on to enable stakeholders to anticipate feedback loops between society, land use potential outcomes (both benefits and Because of various feedback loops and environmental processes including costs) of alternative land management between society and ecological processes, biodiversity change (www.usf.uni- options. Policy decisions on land use and land-use change studies should be kassel.de/cesr/, www.pik-potsdam.de/, management would thus be based on a integrated with studies on changes in www.ufz.de, www. zef.de). In addition, proper balance between the ecosystem the functionalities of land ecosystems. A a number of funding programmes from products and services in sustaining major challenge is to integrate ecological the main German funding agencies human livelihoods and protecting the and socio-economic studies on the address the causes and consequences of environment. The German research relevant spatial scale. Changes in land land cover changes. community is heavily involved in the use often negatively affect biodiversity on analysis of these complex processes and the local level while ecological functions in the development of tools to optimise such as biogeochemical cycles are the management of these critical natural simultaneously affected on a larger scale resources, both in Europe and worldwide. such as the watershed. The decisions of

Modelling Natural and Socio-Economic Dynamics

A spatially explicit multi-agent model been integrated into the land automata socio-economic dynamics resulting from has been developed at ZEF to simulate structure. The human community is land use policy interventions. By applying land use change and the interrelated represented by heterogeneous decision- the model in an upland watershed in socio-economic dynamics at the making entities that integrate household, Central Vietnam, scenarios of land use community-catchment scale. The natural environmental and policy information changes under different policy options landscape was modelled in the form of into land use decisions. A multi-agent on forest protection zoning, agrochemical land automata, i.e., land units hosting based protocol coordinates the flexible subsidies and agricultural extension have natural processes and changing their interactions among human agents and been generated to create a scientific basis nature in response to local conditions land automata, and monitors land use for evaluating the consequences of such exerting influence on each land-unit changes and associated socio-economic policy interventions. Efforts to fine-tune and its immediate neighbourhood. dynamics. The operational model is able to the model structure and its validation in Major ecological models, e.g. on soil systematically generate spatio-temporally different geographical environments are erosion and biomass productivity, have explicit land-use change and interrelated underway. 20

STORMA (Stability of Tropical Rainforest Margins in Indonesia)

Programme Duration: 2000 – 2012 forest products by the rural poor, large- course of several years of study, STORMA Funding: DFG scale plantation forestry by the state researchers have gained many new or private firms, and the conversion of insights into the underlying processes of Tropical rainforests are disappearing at forested land by smallholder farmers, deforestation and the role of migration, an alarming rate causing unprecedented either temporarily through shifting land ownership and cropping patterns losses in biodiversity and ecosystem cultivation or permanently through the in these processes. Monitoring and services. Despite an increased recognition establishment of agroforestry, cropping modelling studies have provided new of the value of these public goods at local, or grazing systems. The main objective knowledge about the close relationship national and global levels, rainforests of STORMA is to identify and analyse the between global cash crop demands, local continue to be seriously threatened by many factors determining the stability of demographic trends, and the ecosystem various forms of encroachments such as rainforest margins in a critical case study services afforded by tropical forests. low-intensity harvesting of non-timber area, namely Sulawesi, Indonesia. In the » www.storma.de «

Global Modelling of Land Use Change

Programme Duration: 2002 – 2012 future patterns of urban, (projected) agricultural, grassland Funding: Various international and and forested areas. national funding organisations German research in global a) wheat land use modelling has The critical role that global land use change provided considerable plays in the Earth System has motivated new information about efforts to model land use change on the the coupling between 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 global scale. German research institutions -1 -1 global land use and the [kg N ha year ] are taking a leading role in this dynamic earth system, for example, field. The Potsdam Institute for Climate about the relationship Impact Research is the driving force between global land use behind the further development of changes and the fluxes of b) rice the LPJ model, one of the leading tools greenhouse gases. for simulating the response of global vegetation patterns to climate and its linkage to the global carbon cycle. The 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Centre for Environmental System Research [kg N ha-1year-1] (CESR) at the University of Kassel has developed and applied a new global land use model LandSHIFT which combines The relationship between land biophysical elements (potential crop use and greenhouse gas fluxes: c) maize and vegetation calculations) and socio- Simulated annual N2O emissions -1 -1 economic elements (cellular automata) in [kg N ha y ] in the 1990s for rainfed wheat (a), wetland rice (b) a single integrated framework. LandSHIFT and maize (c) cropping using the has been used to simulate changes in 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 modified Day Cent model. [kg N ha-1year-1]

Understanding the Feedback Loops between Society, Land Use, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning

Programme Duration: 2006 – 2018 various levels of organisation (genetic Biosphere Reserve Schwäbische Alb (SW (projected) diversity, species diversity, diversity of Germany), 50 grassland and 50 forest Funding: DFG interactions) in the same experimental plots have been established representing plots using standardised methodology, a gradient of land use intensity ranging At the end of 2006, the DFG started and link the diversity to a variety of from low management (e.g. forests in an ambitious project designed to ecosystem functioning such as carbon national parks) to highly managed area address critical questions on the storage, nutrient cycling or predation. (age-class forests). The biodiversity role of land use for biodiversity and The initial phase of this project focuses exploratories aim to bring the German ecosystem functioning. The novelty on grassland and forest ecosystems. research community together and of this approach, termed “biodiversity In each of three areas in Germany, the pioneer advanced methods of storing exploratories“ is that researchers study Biosphere Reserve Schorfheide-Chorin and analysing the data generated from the diversity of a large number of taxa (NE Germany), the Hainich area in the the projects as well as the preservation of (from microorganisms to vertebrates) at centre of Germany, and the upcoming the samples obtained. Megacities – 21 Urban Dynamics of Global Change

As from 2007, more than half of the extreme socio-economic disparities world‘s population (3.3 billion people) and fragmentation. But one must lives in cities – an increase from 30% nevertheless be wary of generalised in 1950 and 47% in 2000 – and the statements, and differences in economic proportion will probably reach 60% development, social polarisation, quality in 2030. Urbanisation is occurring at a of infrastructure and governability should fast pace, particularly in the developing not be ignored. countries of Asia and Africa. Megacities, i.e. cities with more than 5 million in- Under the dynamics of global change habitants, are particularly significant in – understood as global environmental this worldwide process of urbanisation. change as well as global socio-economic F. Kraas Almost 60 megacities, with total popu- and political change – megacities are Crowd in Mumbai, India. lation figures of more than 600 million facing an increasing number of different people, are expected to exist by 2015. options: On the one hand they are prone to growing socio-economic vulnerability Against this background, the German Megacities are characterised by new and risk due to pronounced poverty, National Committee on Global Change scales, new dynamics, new complexities, socio-spatial and political fragmentations, Research (NKGCF) successfully en- i.e. they have the largest population sometimes with extreme forms of couraged a dialogue within the scien- figures and densities and the highest segregation, disparities and conflicts. tific communities to look into options development dynamics as well as intense The juxtaposition of very different ways of bundling their previous research ef- and complex interactions of different of life (including ethnic, social and forts focussing on the most important demographic, social, political, economic behavioural groups) and lifestyles plays challenges of megacities research. At and ecological processes. Moreover, a significant differentiating role. On the the same time the German Ministry highly dynamic processes take place other hand – and this is a point that is of Education and Research (BMBF) simultaneously, thereby often reinforcing often neglected – megacities offer positive developed its programme on “Research themselves. In economically booming potential for global transformation, e.g. for the Sustainable Development of megacities, major new opportunities co- minimisation of “space consumption“, the Megacities of Tomorrow” (2005- exist with strong pressure for change. In high effectiveness of resources applied, 2013). The German Research Council the developing world, the most dominant efficient disaster prevention, adequate (DFG) granted one of its priority pro- features are largely uncontrolled health care – if good strategies are grammes to “Megacities – Megachal- spatial expansion, high traffic volumes, developed. Megacity research is therefore lenge: Informal Dynamics of Global often severe infrastructural deficits, set to become a central element of Change” (2006-2012). The Helmholtz high concentrations of industrial complex global policy issues as new scales Association started a project on “Risk production, ecological strains and and new dynamisms make megacities Habitat Megacity” (2007-2013). These overload, unregulated and disparate both global growth and innovation areas efforts are also in line with the recently land and property markets, insufficient as well as global risk areas. approved new International Human housing provision and, in some cases, Dimensions Programme (IHDP) core Map of Megacities. project on “Urbanisation and Glo- bal Environmental Change” as well as with one of the key topics “Megacities – Our Global Urban Future” of the In- ternational Year of Planet Earth (2007- 2009). Most projects are based on prov- en international partnerships between interdisciplinary academic communities as well as major stakeholders from local governments, private enterprises, non-governmental organisations and civil societies, particularly in developing countries.

At present, all major research projects running under the three German F. Kraas initiatives focus on topics such as mega- 22

urban sustainability, comprehensive Megacities - Megachallenge: Informal Dynamics of Global Change environmental and social management, mobility and transportation, climate Programme Duration: 2006 – 2012 between the informal mega-urban protection and energy efficiency, water Funding: DFG processes and the form and effect and energy supply and consumption, food of global change upon the spatial, Megacities are results of globalisation social, and institutional relationships supply and nutrition, waste treatment, processes and subject to global in megacities. The processes and urban health and quality of life, mega- ecological, socio-economic, and interactions of four issues with high urban planning and governance: loss of political change. Reciprocally, they also development dynamics and social influence these changes due to their governability and steering capabilities, relevance form the main focus of the development dynamics. Increasingly, in fragmentation and social coherence, programme: New governance forms megacities worldwide more and more social innovation, the dynamics of and self-organisation, differentiation of processes take place unregulated and urban economies, dynamics of matter informal processes, security issues, urban informally, which is hardly understood and resource flows, informal settlement vulnerability, risk assessment and disaster and researched with respect to form, development. The two mega-urban prevention. New methodologies have function, and interaction. areas of Pearl River Delta/China and Against this background, the priority to be applied for mega-urban contexts, Dhaka/Bangladesh were selected. programme of the DFG is aiming at such as the analysis of high-resolution » www.geographie.uni-koeln.de/ an understanding of the connection satellite data, decision support systems megacities-spp « and scenario techniques. Megacities of Tomorrow – Energy- and climate-efficient structures in urban growth centers

Programme Duration: 07/2005 – 03/2013 originating in cities. Many of these future potentials of urban living e.g., energy Funding: BMBF megacities not only co-drive climate supply and consumption, water supply, change, they also receive the full brunt of urban planning. For the up-coming main- BMBF’s funding priority focuses on future its consequences, not least because about phase (04/2008-03/2013) successful megacities, i.e., rapidly growing cities, a fifth of the world’s population lives less teams will have to prove their capacities approaching the threshold to megacity than 30 kilometers from the coast in areas in prioritizing their efforts on the status in the coming decade. These cities with high population densities. implementation of energy- and climate- still have the chance to practice precaution, The funding priority aims at the efficient structures in urban growth chart sustainable courses to their future development and implementation centers. and utilize proactively the momentum of solution-oriented and integrated The funding priority contributes to the of the inevitable transformations. Urban planning and management concepts international dialogue as outlined in agglomerations and, in particular, (best practice). Sixteen projects were set BMBF’s “Hightech Strategy for Climate megacities in developing and newly up for a pre-phase (07/2005-03/2008): Protection”. Furthermore, it is part of industrialising countries also contribute Cities in Latin America, Africa and Asia the “fona - Research for Sustainability” to the three quarter of global energy are considered. As to their topics, they framework programme by BMBF. consumption as well as approx. 85% of the are dedicated towards specific practical » www.emerging-megacities.org « global production of greenhouse gases needs, exigencies as well as innovation

Risk Habitat Megacity. Strategies for Sustainable Development of Megacities and Urban Agglomerations

Programme Duration: 2007 – 2013 steer the urban system towards a more inequitable developing region in the world. Funding: Helmholtz Iniatiative and sustainable development? Santiago de Chile is the ‘anchor city’ for the Networking Fund These questions are the focus of the initiative and hosts its coordination and the Risk Habitat Megacity research initiative dissemination of results. The metropolitan Urbanization, as a social phenomenon and in which scientists from currently five region of Santiago de Chile is also the physical transformation of landscapes, is Helmholtz research centers and their pilot case for the first implementation one of the dramatic current global changes. partner organisations from Latin America phase (2007-2010). The initiative intends Its speed, scale and global connectedness seek to generate orientation and decision to transfer the interdisciplinary and turn the urban habitat in megacities making knowledge. The research adopts integrative research framework to other into both a space of risk and a space of governance, risk concepts and sustainable Latin American megacities in a second opportunity. What factors drive the risks urban development as three crosscutting phase (2010-2013). The initiative is strongly and opportunities that associate with the research themes and integrating committed to training of young scientists global trend towards mega-urbanization? framework. in interdisciplinary and problem-oriented What risks, or indeed opportunities, are Geographically, the initiative concentrates research. associated with mega-urbanization? on megacities in Latin America, which » www.risk-habitat-megacity.org « What specific strategies and policies can is the by far most urbanized and most 23 Global Change and Health

There has been a growing awareness as water, air and food will be affected of the centrality of human health in due to the impact of climate change the debate on Global Change. While on the global environment. Although the effects of Global Change that have seemingly still few in number at this emerged in response to unprecedented stage, it is projected that such effects will human pressure on the biosphere in increase progressively in all countries recent decades will have a diverse (mostly and regions. Adaption strategies are adverse) impact on economic, social and needed in order to address the health environmental conditions, the ultimate risks and the vulnerability among the E. Sternfeld, CESDRRC, China risk is to human well-being, health and human population that is expected to Water scarcity in the Miyun water reservoir, China. survival. occur over the coming decades.

It is highly unlikely that any effects on Figure 1 illustrates three generic pathways tuberculosis and bacterial pneumonias. health will be new, but instead will be by which Global Change can affect Furthermore, both the long- and short- reflected in the gradual increase of the human health. These pathways can be term economic impact of emerging existing disease burden. The World direct, as in the cardiovascular effects of diseases might be severe, indicated, for Health Report 2002 estimates that in heat stress, or ecosystem-mediated, as in example, by the severe acute respiratory the year 2000 current climate change the case of increased risk of vector-borne syndrome (SARS), slowing economic caused 2.4% of the cases of diarrhoea infections. Finally, health systems can growth in some affected countries, and worldwide, 6% of malaria cases in some collapse entirely, which has far reaching avian influenza, damaging the poultry middle-income countries and 7% of consequences. This Figure also indicates industry in parts of South-East Asia. dengue fever cases in industrialized na- the foci of mitigation and adaptation tions. The WHO attributed 154,000 actions, and how each of these is Future research on Global Change and deaths (0.3%) and 5.5 million (0.4%) influenced by the results of research health should consider environmental DALYs (disease-adjusted life years) to into climate-health relationships as well drivers and pressures related to climate change. as how the level of impact on health is emerging and re-emerging infectious likely to change in future. diseases, the exploration of linkages The IPCC Synthesis Report 2007 among environmental dynamics, identifies the impact on human health Environmental changes contribute disease vectors, pathogens and human as one of the most important effects to the outbreak or re-emergence of susceptibility. Local action should be of the changing climate. Fundamental infectious diseases like SARS, West Nile combined with enhanced co-operation determinants of human well-being such virus, avian influenza virus or malaria, at global and regional levels.

Skin damage/cancer Ozone depletion Direct impacts Eyes (cataracts, etc.) Immune suppression Thermal stress: death, disease events, injury Climate change Direct impacts Storms, cyclones, floods, fires vulnerability Sea-level rise: phys hazards, displacement

Infectious disease risks (emerging and Land cover Spread of resurging/spreading) invasive Predation by species humans

Land use Biodiversity Changes in vector species changes (mosquitoes, etc.)

e.g. pollination Food yields: Water nutrition and systems: health management Avian ‘flu, Nipah Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the Food-production virus, BSE, etc. main types of bio-geo-physical path- systems: methods ways by which Global Environmental Slums, hygiene; physical hazards; Changes (boxed underlined text) can Urbanisation: human infectious disease risks (mobility, affect human health. contact networks, density) settlements Source: ESSP Report 4. Global Environmental Change and Human Health: Science Plan and Implementation Strategy (edited by Ulisses Confalonieri and Tony McMichael). 24

Direct Health Impact: The Effect of Heat Stress on Mortality

Recent scientific assessments indicate It was defined as a statistically significant heat-wave plans and warning systems. that, as global temperatures continue to deviation of mortality expectations However, effective prevention and increase because of climate change, the based on previous mortality time series. adaption requires cumulative efforts. number and intensity of extreme events In Germany, the number of deaths above Heat-waves need to be integrated into are likely to increase. Extreme events the norm was estimated at around 7,000 the health systems prepardness planning break new records every year somewhere in whole Europe it was around 35,000. process. Adaption measures have to around the globe, but in recent years Since the 2003 events prevention and promote individual protective behaviour. the number of such extremes has been adaption measures are developed in order Key issues are accurate and timely weather increasing. to reduce further avoidable mortality forecasts, a sound understanding of the The summer of 2003 was the hottest since future events caused by heat-waves. The effects of heat, information and advice the year 1500. Health-related mortality WHO summarizes that cities in France, to citizens, action aimed at vulnerable was investigated for the heat wave of Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain, and groups and urban planning. 2003 for Baden-Württemberg, Germany. the United Kindom have implemented » www.euro.who.int/Document/mediacentre/fs0307e.pdf «

Distribution of additional heat-related fatalities per year from 2071- 2100 in Germany. Shown are 10x10-km² sectors (exponential extrapola- tion of extreme heat stress) . Hübler and Klepper, 2007. Kosten des Klimawandels - Die Wirkung » www.uni-kiel.de/ifw/prog2/wwfstudie.pdf « steigender Temperaturen auf Gesundheit und Leistungsfähigkeit.

Ecosystem-mediated Health Impact (Vector-borne Disease): Incor- porating Environmental Factors in Modelling Malaria Transmission in Children under Five in Rural Burkina Faso

In the Nouna health district, Burkina Faso, understanding of malaria transmission. the contribution of malaria to the total The hypothesis was that the incidence burden of disease (BOD) is estimated of malaria was associated with local at 27% and among children under five transmission since differential land cover (U5s), it accounts for 1719.5 years of life affects the microclimate and hence the lost (YLL). Since the 1980s, the country microhabitat of mosquitoes and malaria has been involved in various studies ai- parasites. The project developed and med at identifying locally suited methods spatially validated an explicit high- for controlling the disease. The available resolution process-based model that can malaria control and prevention methods predict malaria transmission risk among have not been effective, largely because U5s in a holoendemic area, and uses the mechanism of malaria transmission, the model to forecast malaria outbreaks especially its environment component, in holoendemic areas of Sub-Saharan remains inadequately understood. Africa. This project incorporates environmental factors aimed at broadening the » www.hyg.uni-heidelberg.de/sfb544 « 25 Extreme Events

Over the last few years, Europe has during the last 30 years the probability been hit by a number of extreme weather of summer heat waves like that of 2003 events. Heavy precipitation caused major occurring, has increased by a factor of flooding in different drainage basins of 20, although the probability is still very European rivers, including the Oder low. Investigations of climate scenarios flood in 1997 and the Elbe flooding show that the probability of low river in 2002 (Figure 1). Almost every year flow will significantly increase in the there was unprecedented flooding (see future. Table on the right). These events were often connected to weather conditions Possible changes in the frequency

resulting from heavy precipitation. and intensity of extreme events such Spiegel No. 7, 2003 as hurricanes, heat waves, droughts Figure 1: Flooding of the city of Dresden in 2002. In contrast with the precipitation and floods are likely to have a huge and flooding events that lasted only a impact on society, since they can cause few days and involved relatively small considerable damage. As an example, regions, such as individual catchment Figure 3 shows changes for the Rhine areas, a widespread severe drought Valley up until 2050 in days affected by occurred in the summer of 2003. This frost and heat calculated using a regional drought, which was linked to a heat climate model (REMO) assuming wave, was not a sudden climate event, a B2 IPCC scenario. The projected but due to its long duration and the changes in extremes are coherent with fact that it occurred over large areas of the findings of Schär et al. (2004) who Europe, was termed a catastrophe. studied the occurrence of summer heat In 2007, Greece experienced its worst waves in Europe at the time and in the year on record for forest fires (Figure future. They showed that the heat wave NASA Figure 2: The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spec- 2). Extremely hot and dry weather of summer 2003 was extraordinary but troradiometer (MODIS) on NASA‘s Aqua satellite conditions combined with strong winds could occur with greater frequency in captured this image of Greece on Aug. 26, 2007. led to a disastrous increase in forest the future. The red pixels that punctuate the image are areas where MODIS detected actively burning fires. fires and wildfires. In 2007, Greece » www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/greek_fires.html « requested assistance through the MIC Another strong finding is the increase of (Monitoring and Information Centre) heavy precipitation events in summer, 4 times during June, July and August. which accompanies a decrease in The total area destroyed by fire in that monthly mean summer precipitation particular year amounted to 268,834 in central Europe (Christensen and Figure 3: Daily temperature changes for the hectares, of which 180,000 hectares Christensen, 2004). Rhine Valley up until 2050. were destroyed between 24th and 30th number of cold days per year number of summer days per year number of cold days per year (minimum daily temperature < 0 °C) number of summer days per year (maximum daily temperature > 25 °C) August 2007. (minimum daily temperature < 0 °C) (maximum daily temperature > 25 °C) 80 80

70 70

One of the challenging tasks for future 60 60 research is to better understand and 50 50 model the occurrence, evolution and role 40 40 number / year / number 30 year / number 30

of extremes within the climate system. 20 20 number / year number / year MPI für Meteorologie, HH MPI für Meteorologie, Moreover, better ways of predicting 10 10 0 0 such events need to be explored. This 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 years years requires the analysis of existing long- number of ice days per year number of hot days per year number of ice days per year (maximum daily temperature < 0 °C) number of hot days per year (maximum daily temperature > 30 °C) term measurement records. However, (maximum daily temperature < 0 °C) (maximum daily temperature > 30 °C) 40 both heavy precipitation and gusts of 25 35

20 wind are difficult to measure accurately 30

25 due to their very limited regional 15 extent. 20

number / year / number 10 15 year / number

10 5 A statistical analysis of the time series of number / year number / year 5

0 daily temperatures in Karlsruhe, carried 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 out at Frankfurt University, shows that years years 26

Such short-term, strong, convective The IPCC and Extreme Weather Events summer precipitation events can potentially cause damage, e.g. in “An extreme weather event is an event place to place. An extreme climate event is agricultural areas, but also in cities, where that is rare within its statistical reference an average of a number of weather events sewage systems might be flooded. distribution at a particular place. over a certain period of time, an average Definitions of ‘rare’ vary, but an extreme which itself is extreme (e.g. rainfall over a One focus of future climate change weather event would normally be as rare season).” as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. research should therefore concentrate on IPCC Working Group I, Climate Change 2001: By definition, the characteristics of what The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report the development of statistical as well as is called extreme weather may vary from Glossary. dynamic methods to better understand the evolution of extreme events. This will contribute to a more reasonable prediction of expected changes in Major Extreme Events in Europe 1993 – 2007 extremes. Ongoing European projects like 1993 December Century flood of Rhine and Moselle ENSEMBLES will contribute to this 1995 January Century flood of Rhine and Moselle goal with global as well as regional 1997 July Century floor of the Oder modelling. In this context, first results 1999 May Flood of the Danube and Lake Constance from the MICE project (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes, with 2000 Autumn Extensive and long-lasting floods in Western Europe, in contributions from Germany as well as particular South England and Wales other European countries) have recently 2001 July Flood of the Vistula been published. In the warmer climate of 2002 August Flood of the Danube 2070-2099 according to the IPCC SRES 2002 August Century flood of the Elbe A2 scenario, the researchers conclude, 2002 September Extreme precipitation and floods in Southern France among other findings, the following: 2003 January Severe flooding in parts along German rivers • heat waves will become hotter and 2005 Summer Alpine Flooding last longer over much of Europe, • the number of episodes with heavy 2006 October Flood in Greece rainfall (intense showers) could 2007 Summer Drought and fires in Greece increase, • fewer storms are expected, but the number of severe storms over (Sensor-Actuator-Based Early-Warning System for Hazard Protection Western Europe is expected to SAFE in Extreme Weather Conditions) increase, • floods, droughts and episodes of Project Duration: 2006 – 2009 (projected) purpose, the previous possibilities of water pollution are likely to become Funding: BMBF forecasting local extreme weather and its local impact are to be improved more severe. With an increase of occurrence and significantly through the application of intensity of extreme weather events new measuring systems and prognosis caused by climate change, the question is MICE communicates key messages for methods. Building on these more precise how society can effectively protect itself future research, which are also important prognoses, the early-warning system shall from these hazards and damages. Early- for national research activities. They also be able to activate automatic systems warning systems play a significant role in include the need to: (e.g. in plant and building technology) this, which inform the persons concerned apart from the targeted warning of • focus to a greater extent on the near of impending dangers in time and thus the people concerned. Through the future i.e. 2020s instead of 2080s, allow short-term protection measures. combination of precise prognosis and The aim of the project SAFE is to • reduce uncertainty by more reliable effective information distribution, SAFE implement innovative approaches climate modelling, is to contribute considerably to an in sensor technology, prognosis and • make research results more improved hazard prevention in the case information logistics in a new, high- accessible for the layperson, of increasing extreme weather events. quality extreme weather warning » www.klimazwei.de « • bridge the gap between what system for private people, communes » www.safe-projekt.de « scientists can produce and what end- and industrial companies. For this users require. Schär, C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C, 2004, The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heat waves. Nature 427; 332-336 Christensen JH and Christensen OB, 2004, Climate modelling: severe summer flooding in Europe. Nature 421; 805-806 27 Energy – Mobility – Climate

Fossil energy resources have been According to projections, passenger car lead to social and environmental risks one of the main drivers of economic numbers might grow from some 700 in many parts of the world. Regarding growth and prosperity since the 19th million today to 2 billion by 2050. Thus the environmental implications, biofuel century. This growth in production and transport is estimated to be the second production, which is considered to be consumption paired with the process fastest growing source of GHG emissions GHG emission neutral, can lead to net of globalization has triggered an ever- globally after power generation, and GHG emissions if vital carbon sinks increasing volume of transport. In transport’s GHG emissions are projected like grassland, wetlands and rain forests parallel our society becomes more and to grow as much as 85% between 2000 are converted into farmland. Last but more mobile within a more and more and 2030 (increase of 1990 to 2003 in not least, the overall energy efficiency of globalised world. For example currently EU see in Figure 2). several biofuels provision chains might the tourism industry that relies heavily be too low to become good substitutes. on transport services belongs to the The share of transport in the total crude Therefore, it is the task of research to largest economic sectors of the world oil consumption of the industrialized test the sustainability of new fuels and economy. Mobility of people and goods world – and consequently the GHG to develop highly efficient biofuels is considered a major achievement of emissions – will reach approx. 60% with low negative impacts on humans modern societies and is dominated by within the next decade. Predictions for and the environment. For example EU road traffic which is increasing world many developing countries show a time funded projects like CROPGEN and wide at the expense of rail and water delay but similar end points. Therefore, Bio-SNG have the overall objective transport. new strategies are needed to reduce the to develop such sustainable non- high dependency on crude oil within fossil oil fuel substitutes. Additionally The most important source of fuel for the mobility sector. Three challenges lie ongoing projects are working on the road and air transport is crude oil (Figure ahead in this respect. development of sustainability criteria to 1). But the use of this energy source is be implemented within the world wide problematic for two reasons. On the First, development of sustainable biofuel trade (cf. the BMBF research one hand, crude oil is becoming scarcer substitutes for crude oil as a fuel. funding under “BioEnergy 2021 – due to limited resources, its price will Biomass respectively biofuels are Research for Biomass Use”). therefore keep on a high and in tendency considered to be one of the most rising level and political conflicts may promising crude oil substitute today. Second, development of new drive additionally lead to interruptions in Therefore the US plan to cover 20% of concepts. New drive concepts like supply and unexpected price changes. their fuel needs in 2020 by means of hybrid or fuel cell motors as well as cars On the other hand, fossil oil used as a biofuels, the EU formulated a political driven by green electricity are potential fuel is a major source of Greenhouse gas goal to achieve a 10% biofuel share of technological substitutes for the current (GHG) emissions which are responsible the fuel demand in 2020. However, oil-based forms of mobility. Up to now, for climate change. these plans alone do not guarantee several hybrid proto-types are at hand, that biofuel use will be sustainable. but there is neither a big will in the car Additionally the mobility of people and Overambitious political and economic industry nor in politics to trigger these goods will further increase especially incentives may accelerate the land use new car concepts. The fuel cell transport in the fast growing Asian economies. competition between food and energy concept is rather a long term substitute crop production and will lead to rising and nowadays it is far from readiness Figure 1: Global fuel demand in 2005 (bio-fuel fraction only 1% of global fuel consumption). food prices. Such a development may also to marketing. Several EU projects and the European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Platform (HFP) are engaged in the Diesel: 38% LPG: 27% long-term development of these new (Liquified Petroleum Gas) Ethanol: 23% technological mobility concepts. Other projects focusing on the medium term are tackling the development of more efficient engine concepts based on Alt. Fuels: Biodiesel: 4% 4% mixtures between biofuels and fossil fuels. Additionally there are ongoing ETBE: 1% activities to develop concepts for cars with significantly lower energy CNG/LNG: 45% demand. (Compressed Natural Gas / Liquified Natural Gas) Gasoline: 58% Hart’s World Refining and Fuel Service, 2006 28

European Environment Agency Figure 2: Comparison of EU greenhouse gas emis- and social drivers of the demand for sions of road and rail transport, maritime shipping and aviation in 1990 and 2003. energy and mobility services with the consumption of natural and environmental resources? uncertain whether these opportunities 2. What is the potential of current and will suffice to reduce future energy future technologies for the provision consumption. Therefore, improved and use of transportation fuels with planning of land uses and other related respect to the sustainable use of natural policy instruments like road pricing for resources? Third, development of new social forms decreased travel distances and reduced 3. How can the potentials of renewable of mobility. Over the last decades, in urban sprawl are needed in the future sources of energy be used best for all modern societies new lifestyles emerged as a precondition for more sustainable sectors of the overall economy and what with a high demand for new mobility travel systems. are the implications for the transport options. Today, multimodal travellers sector? frequently combine different modes Especially the last aspect indicates that 4. How should the political and for their daily travel and increasingly mobility in the future might be totally regulatory framework be designed in replace the former mono-modal different in character. However, the order to support promising biofuels, traveller. The travel impacts of new path of the mobility sector is important technological and/or social substitutes household types, long-distance housing- as well, because different developments to oil-based mobility and to prevent work arrangements and new forms of in mobility may have very different social and environmental externalities? mobility are explored by researchers like impacts on society and the environment. 5. How can a successful transfer of new the European Cosmobilities Network. Research projects such as the EU- technologies in the transport sector Other research is directed towards funded QUANTIFY (see box) are into the fast growing regions of the changing travel behaviour. For instance, underway which try to model several developing world be achieved? the context of travel behaviour changes mobility scenarios and to measure the 6. Which international regimes and (e.g. key events in a life course like environmental impact of the transport what kinds of institutional requirements residential relocations) and the potential system on a regionally disaggregated are necessary for achieving sustainable of policy interventions for redirecting level. There is still the challenge as to development in the area of mobility these changes in a more sustainable way how this seemingly uncontrolled process and energy supply within a globalising need to be better understood. Moreover, of increasing environmental pressure world? programmes like the EU funded from increased mobility services can be “CIVITAS Initiative” aim at the design, reconciled with the demand for it. The relevance of this research complex improvement and dissemination of new is also reflected in the policy paper on mobility options and travel demand In the field of energy-mobility-climate Global Change research, published by management. However, while new several fundamental research questions the German National Committee on social forms of mobility evolve and give still need to be answered: Global Change Research (NKGCF) in the opportunity for travelling with less 1. What are the determinants of the June 2005, suggesting research foci for energy consuming modes, it remains complex interaction of economic the upcoming years. QUANTIFY

Project Duration: 03/2005 – 02/2010 and in particular the effects of emissions exhaust into the free atmosphere, the Funding: EU of ozone precursors and particles, as well impact of pollutants on clouds and the QUANTIFY is an integrated project as of contrails and ship tracks. The project role of absorbing aerosols. coordinated by the DLR-Institute of goal includes the provision of forecasts In QUANTIFY, a total of 35 participants Atmospheric Physics, and is funded by and other policy-relevant advice, which and four associated members from 16 the European Commission within the will be supplied to governments and European countries and the USA are 6th Research Framework Programme. to international assessments of climate collaborating. The research topics are The main goal is to quantify the climate change and ozone depletion, such organized in eight closely linked sub- impact of global and European transport as the IPCC reports (Kyoto Protocol) projects. Accompanying measurement systems for the present situation and for and WMO-UNEP ozone assessments campaigns with research aircraft are an several scenarios of future development. (Montreal Protocol). To achieve the goal, innovative part of QUANTIFY. Further goals The climate impact of various transport several advances in our fundamental are the dissemination of results through modes (land surface, shipping, aviation) understanding of atmospheric processes a web portal with e-learning function, a will be assessed, including those of long- will be required such as the mechanisms summer school, and the organisation of

lived greenhouse gases like CO2 and N2O, by which pollutants are transported from an international conference. 29 Governance and Institutions

Governance is key to understanding the the development of a bird‘s eye-view policy measures has been supplemented human impact on global environmental to achieve a general understanding of and partially replaced by economic change and for developing mitigation governance issues whilst at the same instruments. An analysis has to be made and adaptation strategies. It comprises time taking into account the diversity of as to which instrument or instrument the manifold social structures and specific environmental concerns existing mix should be selected e.g. in the field processes which shape the behaviour of at different levels, in different regions or of climate policy, and whether and under individuals and societies. The issue of in particular places. which circumstances these instruments governance, therefore, goes far beyond German research contributes to this are effective, efficient and legitimate. the formal political and state institutions research in many different ways. (1.3) The question of interplay addresses and their activities: It includes the many the proper links between large numbers informal structures and actors along with of agencies involved in global change economic institutions and other societal issues at different levels. Global change mechanisms. Consequently, in addition must be considered as an across-the- to law and politics, markets, economic board topic, which touches upon incentives, discursive processes and moral such diverse issues as climate policies, values have to be taken into account. biodiversity, agriculture, trade, traffic and In addressing the challenges of Global public health. These issues are often dealt

Change, governance must focus on the A. Künzelmann with separately by different ministries or global perspective, as required by the Literature of environmental politics. departments at national level. Moreover, concept of “Earth System Governance”. at international or regional level a huge At the same time, however, the global- 1. Coherent Multilevel Environmental number of different organisations and local interplay has to be addressed, as Governance institutions exist, which are in charge of regional, national and local structures Many organisations and institutions on matters relevant to global change. The often play an important role in decision- a global, regional, national and local necessary coordination between these making and implementation of level are active in the area of global various institutions and levels is difficult international measures. change. However, in spite of the huge to achieve. number of institutions and activities, Thus, research on global environmental there are doubts as to the effectiveness 2. Participation and Legitimacy governance has to look at the ensemble of of this kind of governance. Such doubts The challenges linked to finding political, legal and economic institutions relate to a number of research questions, coherent global governance solutions from a multi-level perspective. It has which an Institutional Dimensions of contribute to the emergence of a strong to take into account both the many Global Environmental Change project and active public movement in the formal and informal institutions and (IDGEC) working group has coined as area of global environmental change. organisations situated at different levels follows: question of scale, problem of fit Non-governmental organisations play – international institutions, transnational and question of interplay. an important role in addressing global corporations, national parliaments (1.1) The question of scale relates to the change by undertaking research, and governments, non-governmental proper assignment of responsibilities disseminating information and by taking organisations, economic forces, other and functions to different governmental an active part in environmental measures. societal institutions. Research on levels. The choice of an adequate scale is More generally, these groups are part of governance and institutions has to focus important to ensure that measures take and strengthen an international public in particular on the relationship between into account the conditions and priorities voice. This supports insights that the these different elements and levels of of the area at hand. This issue is highly participation of all relevant stakeholders environmental governance. The goal relevant, because it indicates that there in environmental decision-making at all is to identify both the potential causes is no easy “up-scaling” or “downsizing” governance levels is crucial. Moreover, of the unsustainable use of the Earth‘s of global change policies and measures. for the legitimacy of institutions and resources and opportunities to support Many sustainable resource management decisions it is important that the a more comprehensive response by schemes developed at local level cannot people, stakeholders, local communities humankind to the challenges of global easily be transferred to the regional or and non-governmental organisations change. Governance for global change is national level and vice versa. affected by environmental change have a demanding topic for the social sciences (1.2) The question of scale is closely related a say in decision-making. A number and its many disciplines ranging from to the problem of fit which concerns the of developments have taken place in anthropology to economics, through law choice of appropriate policy instruments. this regard, including better access to to political sciences and sociology. The Recently, the traditional command- information about the environment topic is demanding because it requires and-control type of environmental and access to justice. It has to be 30

explored how the continuation of such multilateral environmental agreements deal with uncertainty in decision-making participation can be ensured in view are important areas of research. while addressing urgent concerns must of international regimes and private be developed and implemented, and, last activities. Furthermore, the means by 4.) Climate Change Mitigation and not least, challenges for the incorporation which consumers are able to make Adaptation – Research Priorities of adaptation measures in different policy informed choices have to be found. For a long time, research on climate fields and for the provision of policy Concerning legitimacy, German political change has focused particularly on coherence must be addressed. Because science focused on the participation of strategies to mitigate climate change, of the pressing nature of the matter, new the global public in international regimes. mainly by reducing greenhouse gas strategies for science policy and new The question has been raised as to how emissions. Because of increasing evidence interfaces between research and decision- regimes can be “constitutionalised” of ongoing climate change, however, making are necessary. (ensuring that basic values and legitimacy recently, strategies for adaptation have are respected). become more important. This shift In conclusion, it can be noted that has important implications for further German research has made significant 3. Greening the Global Economy and research. Research for adaptation has contributions to the institutional Developing Economic Devices for to deal with the specific vulnerabilities dimension of Global Change. Besides Promoting Sustainable Development connected with climate change. These ever remaining lacunae there is a more The impact of human societies on vulnerabilities are associated not only fundamental need to integrate the many the environment is largely driven by with changing global or regional climate different methods and problem areas. economic need. The way we use natural conditions (e.g. changing precipitation Database (IRD), TU Darmstadt resources and pollute the environment rates, increasing droughts), but also » www.tu-darmstadt.de « is importantly determined by economic with societies’ capacity to cope with Göttingen University Institute for Intl. and Europ. and social structures, including markets these changes. This differs between Law, Dept. Intl. Economic and Environmental Law and the relevant regulation. Sustainable regions (e.g. semi-arid regions or coastal » inteurlaw.uni-goettingen.de/inteurlaw/ « development of human societies largely zones) and different social groups (e.g. DFG Research Training Group 765, Markets and Social Systems in Europe, Bamberg depends on there being appropriate subsistence farmers). Such capacity University pricing for natural resources and to cope, thus defines the way extreme » web.uni- bamberg.de/sowi/mse/eng/index.html « ecosystem services. To date, however, events can be absorbed and how the Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU) markets often fail to perform that resilience of socio-ecological systems » www.fu-berlin.de/ffu « function. Resource pricing often does can be maintained. Moreover, different German Development Institute not reflect resource scarcity and what’s timescales involved – some aspects of » www.die-gdi.de « more, market interventions including climate change may be significant in a Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Re- search – UFZ, Working Group “Governance subsidies often have a negative impact number of years, nevertheless, action and Institutions” on resource use. Identifying areas of is pressing today – and uncertainties » www.ufz.de/index.php?de=4952 « market failure, designing economic concerning precise scientific prognoses Institute for Intercultural/International Studies (InIIS) instruments for the internalisation of of scope and regional impact of climate » www.iniis.uni-bremen.de « environmental effects are thus important change raise additional challenges for Institute for Social-Ecological Research, tasks for governance research. This governance strategies. Questions of Frankfurt/M. includes issues related to instrument scale and interplay are important, too: » www.isoe.de « choice, such as emission trading, Measures for mitigating climate change Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law environmental taxation, green labelling need international coordination from the » www.virtual-institute.de « and other means to enable consumers word go, whereas adaptation measures Max Planck Institute for Research on Collec- to make their choice in relation to have to address specific regional and local tive Goods environmental preferences. Of even vulnerabilities, but may need national » www.mpp-rdg.mpg.de « greater importance is that such research or global support. Thus, governance for Münchner Projektgruppe für Sozialforschung e.V. has to look at the ability and awareness adaptation represents new and additional » www.m.shuttle.de/mpsev « of regulatory bodies to properly address challenges for research into strategies and Research Network GLO-GOV of Free Univer- the issue. For instance, the question has measures as well as for implementation. sity Berlin (FU), Potsdam Institute for Climate to be raised as to whether environmental The interplay of spatial and temporal Impact Research (PIK), Oldenburg University and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. concerns are properly reflected in scales has to be addressed with new and » www.glogov.de « the European Union’s Common innovative concepts, the interaction Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin Transformations Agricultural Policy. At a global level, of natural and societal processes in of the State, Bremen University » www.wzb-berlin.de « the intricate relationship between the the creation of vulnerabilities must be » www.state.uni-bremen.de « World Trade Organisation (WTO) and analysed carefully, robust strategies to 31 Observing Systems

Measurements of Earth System by supplying research platforms such as coastal areas and fisheries, monitor parameters enable an objective ships, satellites, aeroplanes, ocean drifters deforestation and land use change as well determination of the effects of Global and balloons as well as supporting as water and air quality, support the UN’s Change and their spatial distribution measurement activities at specific effort to help refugees in crisis regions or and temporal development. They form research sites, e.g. within the BIOTA, recognise and fight epidemic diseases, to the basis for a scientific understanding TERENO, LTER-D (see box) and name but a few direct benefits that affect of Global Change and the relevant Earth GLOWA projects. our economic prosperity and quality of System processes. Observing systems In order to monitor processes and life. are the prerequisite for the development dynamics of the Earth System, an of management strategies towards integrated concept for an end-to-end The main challenge in setting up sustainable development. observation process is required ranging GEOSS is the integration of a wide from observations, feeding into global range of existing observing systems with Over the past decades, a wide range and regional Earth System models, a long-range perspective. This includes of short- and long-term observation creating user-related products and thereby the deployment of additional sensors to facilities and networks have been providing a solid basis to decision-makers consistently deliver the full range of data established. Prominent examples are the for a sustained management of resources. on all scales and from all major fields of global meteorological network, which For a comprehensive effective monitoring natural and social sciences. forms the basis for reliable weather of the Earth System’s parameters, a forecasts; the network of high precision comprehensive, integrated observation Scientific achievements are needed in the

CO2-measurement stations, which have system for Global Change is required, following fields to establish this end-to-

discovered the increase of CO2 in the linking observation technologies on a end process: atmosphere; the fleet of research ships global level for the purpose of tracking • development of integrated and drifters (Figure 1) examining ocean environmental changes. The Global observation, data management, and processes; the diverse fleet of satellites Earth Observation System of Systems information delivery systems, observing the earth, which measure a (GEOSS) is currently being established • improvement of quantification of variety of physical, biogeochemical and through international cooperation. environmental processes by direct or societal parameters ranging from trace Along with new developments in indirect observations, gases and ice movements and chlorophyll monitoring, assessing and predicting • improvement of integration of content of vegetation to urban sprawl; a environmental changes, GEOSS will observations into coupled Earth multitude of ecological research sites, enable the development of facilities to System models, studying the role of vegetation in the prepare for weather emergencies, predict • test of our Earth System models over Earth System. Germany contributes to natural hazards like floods, droughts and varying time and spatial scales in the global earth observing capabilities fires, better manage crop production, comparison to observations,

Figure 1: ARGO, a broad-scale global array with ~3,000 free-drifting profiling floats that measure the temperature of the oceans, providing data for weather and climate prognoses and for marine sciences. » www.ifm-geomar.de/index.php?id=3843 « » www.argo.ucsd.edu « 32

TERENO Long-term observation enables the three observatories are planned in impact of climate change to be clearly Germany. Each observatory will consist distinguished from changes caused by of different test and monitoring sites natural fluctuations. Against this backdrop designed in a hierarchical manner to the Helmholtz Association is initiating allow interdisciplinary process studies and establishing a national network of from the local to the regional scale. State- environmental observatories for long- of-the-art monitoring and exploration term observations (> 10 years) focused technologies including for example on the challenges of global change and remote sensing imagery as well as the necessity of interdisciplinary research ground-based observation technologies in terrestrial environmental science allow a scale-spanning observation of the (Terrestrial Environmental Observatoria – different environmental compartments. TERENO). While comparable environmental TERENO will provide a long-term series F. Baret research networks are typically focused on of system variables as an important input Figure 2: Conceptualisation of a multidisciplinary, multi-scale approach for a future specific environmental compartments and for the analysis of Global Change driven Global Change Observing System, combining processes (e.g. Carbon Cycle, biodiversity) processes. Strategies for prevention, local observation sites for Earth System process the TERENO network aims at an integral mitigation and adaptation will be studies with high and medium resolution view, taking into consideration the lower developed using integrated system satellite observations. atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and models. • determination of climate variability socio-economic interactions. Currently, » www.tereno.net « and change as well as the rates of change, • explanation of the mechanisms The GEO Global Biodiversity Observation Network underlying the observed patterns, Members of the National Committee on leading the early planning stages to • communication of scientific Global Change Research were heavily implement a global biodiversity obser- understanding to all stakeholders. involved in the DIVERSITAS and NASA vation system that will collect, manage, lead initiative to develop a Global Ob- share and analyse data on the status This approach implies that measurements servation System for Biodiversity. Cur- and trends of the world‘s biodiversity, of Earth System parameters are combined rent scientific evidence demonstrates a and regularly report its findings through across a broad range of disciplines continued decline in the status of bio- GEOSS. and scales as indicated in Figure 2 for diversity. This leads to reduced benefits In April 2008, a month before the COP9 the example of land surface state and to people, especially in terms of genetic of CBD opens in Bonn, Germany will also resources, agricultural productivity, eco- host the implementation workshop of processes observations. The backbone system services, resilience to environ- the GEO-BON, 8-10 April 2008, in Berlin. of the system consists of a network mental disturbance, human health and The BIOTA-AFRICA (www.biota-africa. of standardised terrestrial observation well-being. Further understanding of org) network was one of the founding sites. The network delivers detailed, biodiversity change is therefore critical members of the GEO-BON. integrated measurements of all coupled to shift unsustainable practices towards natural and socio-economic parameters. sustainable use of biodiversity. » www.bioOBSERVATION.net « In response, DIVERSITAS and NASA are » www.diversitas-international.org « This network of observation sites is augmented by a fleet of suitable high- (second layer) and medium- (third layer) LTER-D (German Network for Long-term Ecological Research) resolution satellite observation platforms, which create a steady flow of regional The components of global change research or monitoring projects have and global environmental and societal operate on different spatial and temporal been completed. This is in line with data to fill the gaps between the global scales. Scientific analysis of this sphere, the long-term horizon of large-scale perspective and the regional impact. however, often deals with shorter time strategies for environmental protection, scales, due to the typical funding duration such as the EU Habitats Directive and the Observation sites and satellites represent of research projects. Nevertheless, long- EU Water Framework Directive, which the inputs for regional models to enhance term observation is indispensable for the plans for time periods of over 20 years. the understanding of the Earth System detection of long-term processes and LTER-D is an umbrella for other long- and to develop alternatives for local and changes, and is the foundation needed to term research projects within Germany regional decision-makers. The multi- develop sustainable strategies. LTER-D is and works in collaboration with the scale observation approach outlined in a member of the international umbrella German Biodiversity Exploratories and organisation ILTER. LTER-D insures that the TERENO initiative. Figure 2 can easily be transferred to other data are saved and documented and that » www.ilter-net.edu « areas of Global Change like the oceans they are accessible long after individual » www.lter-d.ufz.de « and the cryosphere. 33 Modelling the Future

A mong the most challenging ques- Earth System Research (see Box). About tions confronting Global Ghange sci- a quarter of the total HLRE resources entists are those having to do with the of one entire year were necessary to future state of the global environment. complete the simulations. The model The need to understand future trends of output is stored in a relational database Global Change has stimulated exciting and is available to German scientists new modelling developments to which for analysis. The data are available from the German scientific community has the World Data Centre for Climate made major contributions. (WDCC), and have fed directly into MPI-M / DKRZ / MaD the IPCC AR4. Figure 1: Simulated and observed global-mean Modelling Future Climate Change surface temperature, relative to the time mean Predictions of both natural climate vari- Anticipating the Future of Worldwide 1961-1990. The scenarios for concentrations of ability and the human impact on cli- Ecosystem Services greenhouse gases and aerosols were defined in the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions mate are inherently probabilistic, due Human life support systems are vulner- Scenarios). Source: Max Planck Institute for Me- to uncertainties in the initial conditions able to global change in ways that are teorology, German Climate Computing Centre, of the forecasts, in the representation strongly mediated through the bio- and Model & Data Group. of key processes within models, and in sphere. Drivers of global change such

climatic forcing factors. Hence, statisti- as atmospheric CO2, climate, and land Figure 2: Historical and expected land conver- cally reliable estimates of climate risks use affect elements of the biosphere that sion for different biomes as assessed by the Mil- lennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). For 2050 can be made only through ensemble are socially and economically impor- projections, the average value of the projections simulations. In such ensemble simula- tant, such as food provisioning systems under the four scenarios is plotted and the error tions, a model is run many times over and recreation areas. A key concept for bars (black lines) represent the range of values from the different scenarios. b According to the the same time period, with different but the management of the biosphere is the four MA scenarios. equally likely initial conditions, and/or idea of “ecosystem goods and services”, » www.millenniumassessment.org « with different but equally likely model parameters. In this way, a multitude, or ensemble, of model results is produced, MEDITERRANEAN FORESTS, and the scatter between model results is WOODLANDS AND SCRUB one measure of the uncertainty of the TEMPERATE FOREST climate simulation, albeit not the com- STEPPE AND WOODLAND

plete measure. TEMPERATE BROADLEAF AND MIXED FORESTS

A multi-model ensemble of climate TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL change simulations has recently been DRY BROADLEAF FORESTS carried out by modelling groups across FLOODED GRASSLANDS the world, in support of the fourth as- AND SAVANNAS sessment report (AR4) by the Intergov- TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, SAVANNAS AND SHRUBLANDS ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was published in 2007. TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL CONIFEROUS FORESTS In Germany, new simulations were performed showing a mean global warming DESERTS of between 2.5 and 4.1 degrees Celsius MONTANE GRASSLANDS until the end of this century, depending AND SHRUBLANDS

on the scenario of greenhouse gas con- TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL centrations in the atmosphere (Figure MOIST BROADLEAF FORESTS

1). One of the consequences of unabat- TEMPERATE CONIFEROUS FORESTS ed global warming would be a decrease in sea ice – by 2080, the Arctic during BOREAL FORESTS late summer could become completely ice-free. TUNDRA

All German IPCC simulations were Conversion of original biomes performed on the HLRE – the High Loss by Loss between Projected loss Performance Computing System for 1950 1950 and 1990 by 2050 34

which are the benefits that humans de- (German Climate Computing Centre) rive from ecosystems. Scientific support DKRZ for a better management of these ben- DKRZ is the German national service for the simulation of complex processes efits has been provided in the “Millen- centre for climate research and is in the climate and Earth system with nium Ecosystem Assessment” (MA). sponsored by the German Federal sophisticated, realistic numerical models. The MA has for the first time carried Ministry of Education and Research The DKRZ also maintains facilities for the (BMBF). According to its charter, DKRZ storage and management of extremely out a comprehensive scenario analysis is responsible for the installation and large data sets, including software tools of future trends in ecosystem services operation of a high-performance and the required hardware. The DKRZ (Figure 2), with important contributions computer system for basic as well as is a coordinating node in the national from German research institutions. applied research in the field of climatology and European network of climate The approach to scenario development and related disciplines. Its basic task is researchers. drew on qualitative methods often the provision of computing resources » www.dkrz.de « referred to as the “syndrome approach”. This method allows for the qualitative CliSAP (Excellence Cluster “Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction”) coupling of only partially known drivers of global change. Syndromes were also Programme Duration: 2007-2012 Atmospheric Sciences (ZMAW) of the described in earlier work to support the Funding: DFG (Excellence Initiative) University of Hamburg and its partners, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology German Advisory Council on Global The Cluster of Excellence CliSAP will and the Institute for Coastal Research address cutting-edge questions related Change (WBGU). (IfK) at the Research Centre Geesthacht to anticipated climate and climate As part of the scenario development, (GKSS), to address current challenges system changes. CliSAP will analyse and numerical estimates were made of a in integrated climate system science, predict the state of the climate system wide range of global ecosystem services (2) to further intensify the cooperation and its changes, including its physical, between ZMAW and institutions of including agricultural production, chemical and biological components, the University of Hamburg working on provision of freshwater, and carbon in response to natural and human- topics related to climate, such as the driven perturbations. Ongoing changes sequestration. These estimates were Department of Economics, Department in the climate system will be analysed derived from a global modelling exercise. of Biology, the Institute of Wood Sciences and compared to estimates of its The modelling exercise involved 7 and the newly founded Carl Friedrich past variability. CliSAP will determine global models from research groups von Weizsäcker Centre for Science and predictable elements of the climate Peace Research, (3) to offer excellent around the world which were “soft- system over a wide range of space perspectives for young researchers in linked” with each other and driven with and time scales, and it will analyse the field of integrated climate system a common set of climatic and socio- uncertainties intrinsic to predictions of science by establishing new junior important climate system indices. It will economic assumptions. The scenario research groups in key research areas investigate the feedbacks in the climate exercise generated a detailed picture of proposed in this CoE, (4) to enhance system and its interactions with social the prospects for worldwide ecosystem graduate education at the University of systems, including economies, in order Hamburg in integrated climate system services over the coming decades and to explore the system’s critical thresholds. and Earth system science, (5) transfer articulated the expected tradeoffs It will determine regional impacts of of knowledge to innovative climate between gains and losses of services. For the changing climate on geohazards, and climate impact related application, terrestrial ecosystems, marine systems, example, per capita water use is likely and (6) to improve public perception of and urban systems, mainly for Europe. to increase in poorer countries up to present and anticipated climate change 2050 (by a factor of five or more in sub- through communication with the public The most important structural goals of Saharan Africa) but this is likely to be and policy makers. CliSAP are (1) to exploit the long-standing » www.clisap.de/start.151.0.html « accompanied by a deterioration of water expertise of the Centre for Marine and quality and loss of ecosystem services provide by clean freshwater systems (genetic resources, fish production, will entail degradation in the coming are most pronounced on the regional habitat for aquatic and riparian flora decades. The MA also identified a scale. A broad range of modeling and and fauna.) significant research demand for the simulation methodologies, together development of integrated solutions with high performance computing Indeed, one of the key findings of the for resource management, particularly and visualisation, is used for assessing MA is that historical and future changes on a regional scale. Impacts of global the impact on ecosystem goods and to the biosphere lead to fundamental change patterns, which result from services, ranging from biodiversity improvements in ecosystem service an interaction of climate and land to the provisioning and regulating of provision for human society. But most use change, urbanisation, as well as regional landscapes. of these changes are unsustainable and demographic and institutional change, 35 Past Records of Global Change

Despite enormous progress in climate shift in climate research, according to North Atlantic Oscillation). Apart research, climate predictions for the which abrupt climate changes with partly from providing information about the 21st century are still associated with global implications cannot be excluded ocean, marine sedimentary archives huge uncertainties. The distinction in the future. Modern approaches in also contain a record of the terrestrial between potential human influence on paleoclimatic research link all available climate. Such information offers climate and natural climate variations archives containing climate information excellent opportunities to assess land- poses a particular challenge for climate (terrestrial, marine, ice cores), in order to ocean interactions in the context of research. Any effort to understand obtain a comprehensive analysis of global climate change (Figure 2). Moreover, this distinction is hampered by the environmental variations in the past. by employing paleoceanographic depth fact that direct observation of the Furthermore, by linking paleoclimatic transects it is possible to create a 3- climate system only covers the past reconstructions with results of climate dimensional view of past circulation few decades and only enables a very models, far-reaching insights into the changes in the ocean. limited view of the natural variability dynamics of climate variations can be on a longer timescale. Paleoclimatic gained, which are highly significant for Lake Sediments can also serve as data enable the quantification of future climate predictions (Figure 1). climate archives. They occur throughout environmental variations beyond the the world and are particularly suited range of instrumental records and Marine Archives (sediments, biogenic for the assessment of regional aspects can therefore be used to examine this precipitates) contain the chronologically of terrestrial climate variability. For important aspect of Global Change. oldest records of natural climate example, analyses can be made of climate- In addition, paleoclimatic data can be variations as well as information on induced fluctuations in climatological used to test the response of state-of-the- changes in the marine environment as transition zones (e.g. semi-arid art climate models to different forcings. a whole. Paleoclimatic reconstructions regions) with enormous implications Paleoclimatic data thus represent a generated from marine sediment archives for ecosystems. Seasonally layered significant added value for Global offer a unique opportunity to study the sediments are of particular importance, Change research. Accordingly, the 4th ocean as a key component in the climate because they offer enormous potential IPCC assessment report includes for system continuously in time over a wide for the study of past climate changes the first time a chapter entirely devoted range of timescales. Examination of in a seasonal context. Moreover, annual to the reconstruction and modelling these archives enables the quantification layers enable an exact age determination of the paleoclimate. Recent findings of the effects of climate change on the and a precise assessment of the rate of from paleoclimatic research indicate a ocean and the investigation of feedbacks past climate changes. With this high notably higher variability in the climate between the ocean and the Earth temporal resolution, changes in the system, including during interglacials system’s other components. Marine frequency of climate-independent (e.g. (e.g. the Holocene), than has so far archives from shallow water are ideal for volcanic eruptions) and climate-driven been considered. Moreover, results analysing and understanding variations (e.g. floods) weather extremes can be from paleoclimaticl research made a of socio-economically relevant modes detected and the probability of their significant contribution to a paradigm of climate variability (e.g. El Niño, occurrence can be estimated with a greater degree of confidence.

Ice Cores are the only paleoclimate archive that enables the measurement of past atmospheric compositions. In particular, past atmospheric greenhouse- gas concentrations can be quantified. This is of prime importance for quantifying the role of greenhouse gases as climate forcings as well as investigating the coupling between climatological and biogeochemical cycles.

Figure 1: Combined approach of paleoclimate reconstruction and Earth-system modelling to decipher the dynamics of past environmental changes. Data Source: North Greenland Ice Core Project members, 2004, Nature, 431, 147-151. (Copyright M. Schulz, MARUM, Univ. Bremen). 36

Moreover, ice-core archives contain information on atmospheric wet temperature, precipitation and atmospheric aerosol load (e.g. sea salt, mineral dust, volcanic and biogenic Fe/K

sulphur). The climate history recorded fluvial in polar ice sheets covers several dry glacial cycles. In combination with reconstructions from low latitudes, polar ice cores are highly suited to the documentation of teleconnection mechanisms between low and high eolian latitudes. Paleoclimate research based %] Material < 10µm [vol. Terrigenous Age (kyr B.P.) on ice cores can also be carried out on alpine glaciers that exist in the tropics and mid-latitudes. Although these archives cover shorter time periods than polar ice cores, they can contribute important insights into the variability of climate conditions at low latitudes. Because of increasing anthropogenic warming and the associated melting of alpine glaciers, these ice-core archives are increasingly under threat.

INTERDYNAMIC

(Integrated analysis of S. Mulitza, MARUM, Univ. Bremen interglacial climate dynamics) Figure 2: Reconstructed and modelled mega-droughts in the Sahel region. Top panel: Reconstructed changes in eolian dust and fluvial input in a marine sediment record off Senegal over the past 60,000 years. Grey bars indicate so-called Heinrich Events during which the Atlantic meridional overturning Programme Duration: 2007 – 2013 circulation was greatly reduced. Bottom panel: Summer precipitation anomaly (in metres per year) over Funding: DFG Northern Africa due to a ~80% weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning, simulated with a comprehensive climate model. This priority research programme aims to achieve a better understanding of The Ocean in the Earth System (MARUM) climate dynamics using quantitative paleoclimate analyses with the idea Programme Duration: 2007 - 2012 with the following institutions: Alfred of creating more reliable scenarios for Funding: DFG (Excellence Initiative) Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine future climate change. It is based on an Microbiology, Bremerhaven (AWI), Jacobs The Earth is a complex and dynamic integrated approach, in which climate University Bremen (JU), Max Planck system. Oceans, lithosphere, biosphere, reconstructions from all available Institute for Marine Microbiology, Bremen atmosphere and cryosphere are closely paleoclimate archives (terrestrial (MPI), Senckenberg Institute by the Sea, connected with each other through and marine as well as ice cores) are Wilhelmshaven (SNG), and the Centre for closely linked interactions. It is the aim of combined and linked with results from Marine Tropical Ecology, Bremen (ZMT). “The Ocean in the Earth System” MARUM Earth-system models. Key objectives The activities are closely integrated with cluster of excellence to gain a better are: (i) To assess natural climate international programmes (IGBP, PAGES, understanding of the role of the ocean in variations on timescales of several years IMAGES, IODP, InterRidges, etc.). MARUM the global Earth System. The superordinate to millennia, (ii) to evaluate the potential operates one of the three IODP core re- research topics are: Ocean and global for abrupt changes in the large-scale positories. It is one of eight institutes change, relationship between geo- and circulation of the Atlantic Ocean during worldwide to use underwater vehicles biosphere as well as between humans interglacials, (iii) to disentangle which (ROVs), a sea floor rig (MeBo) and an and the ocean. The areas of investigation biogeochemical feedback mechanisms autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) range from shelf to deep ocean regions. control the natural limits of atmospheric in its research activities, which has led The MARUM cluster of excellence is based concentrations of greenhouse gases to MARUM becoming a centre of ocean on the “Ocean margins” research centre and aerosols, and (iv) to study potential research technology and a sought-after which has been receiving funding from links between climate and pre-industrial partner in international cooperative the DFG since 1st July 2001. The University cultures. projects. of Bremen works in close cooperation » www.interdynamik.de « » www.marum.de « German Contributions to International 37 Global Change Programmes and ESSP

The German National Committee on Scope of NKGCF Global Change Research (NKGCF) was set up in October 1996 by Germany’s • Acts as scientific advisory committee to the German Research Foundation and major research funding agency, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. German Research Foundation (DFG), • Plays a significant role in the process of identifying research priorities and in in close collaboration with the German stimulating and coordinating German contributions to the four international Global Change research programmes. Federal Ministry of Education and • Aims to improve the internationalisation of Global Change research in Germany Research (BMBF). As a scientific and at promoting the integration of German contributions into the international advisory committee to DFG and BMBF, programmes. the German National Committee plays • Advises the German representation to the International Council for Science a significant role in the process of (ICSU) and the European Science Foundation (ESF). identifying research priorities and in stimulating German contributions to Members NKGCF 2006 – 2008 the four international programmes on Global Change research, DIVERSITAS, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), International Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (IHDP) and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).

The National Committee is made up of several senior scientists from different disciplines in the sciences and humanities who represent the four major international Global Change programmes; ex-officio members represent BMBF, DFG and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA), respectively. The Scientific Secretariat is also represented as the national contact point and coordinating office. enables the National Committee to of all research activities into the four By bringing together scientists from efficiently support the ESSP and to international programmes and ESSP all fields of Global Change research contribute to the development of new joint projects. This policy document and the four international programmes joint projects. was followed up in 2007 with an under the umbrella of one committee, implementation strategy for a national Germany has anticipated early the need In June 2005, NKGCF presented a new research programme on “Coping with for close collaboration between all the policy paper for a coherent German Global Change – Land Use in the Area scientific disciplines that conduct Global research strategy on Global Change, of Conflict of Resource Conservation, Change research within the framework identifying priority research areas. A Food and Energy”. of the ESSP. This organisational structure main focus is the close integration Activities of NKGCF

• Four regular Committee Meetings per year. • National Colloquia to discuss achievements and to redesign and refocus future needs of the global change research programmes. • Scientific Workshops to develop new methodologies and scientific programmes, organized with financial support from DFG and BMBF, to discuss new methodological approaches and to develop new research initiatives and new programmes. • Scientific Conferences to evaluate the progress and achievements of German contributions to Global Change research. These meetings also provide the necessary background information for future programme development. The discussions and main outcomes of these meetings are published either as books or as part of the committees’ publication series. • Ad hoc Working Groups to discuss and review new research initiatives, and to help develop new programme components. 38

ESSP (Earth System Science Partnership)

The Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) is a partnership of the four Global Change research programmes (DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP) for the integrated study of the Earth System, the changes that are occurring to the System, and the implications of these changes for global sustainability. The ESSP has five types of activities:

• joint projects on issues of global sustainability, designed to address the Global Change aspects of a small number of critical issues for human wellbeing: carbon cycle/energy systems (GCP), food systems (GECAFS), water resources (GWSP) and human health (GEC & HH), • regional activities, including capacity building, networking and integrated regional studies, • Earth System analysis and modelling, via collaboration among existing projects/activities of the four constituent programmes, • global Change Open Science Conferences. ESSP recognizes the importance of broad interaction amongst the many scientists that contribute to its activities. As such, the Partnership is committed to hosting major international science meetings every five years, • communication activities, currently under development. These include the ESSP website, a report series, a common design profile for the ESSP and features on ESSP activities in the programme newsletters. » www.essp.org «

DIVERSITAS IGBP (International Geosphere- Objectives: Addressing the complex scientific questions Biosphere Programme) posed by the loss of and changes in global biodiversity. Objectives: Studying the interactions between biological, Structure: Four interrelated areas for further development: chemical and physical processes and human systems. (1) discovering biodiversity and predicting changes – Structure: Four core projects are centred on the three major bioDISCOVERY, Earth System compartments: Oceans (IMBER and GLOBEC), (2) assessing the impact of biodiversity changes on ecosystem land (GLP) and atmosphere (IGAC). Three projects investigate functioning and services – ecoSERVICES, the interactions and feedbacks between them: Land/atmos- (3) developing the science of the conservation and sustainable phere (iLEAPS), land/ocean (LOICZ), and ocean/atmosphere use of biodiversity – bioSUSTAINABILITY, (SOLAS). Two projects, PAGES and AIMES, focus on a whole (4) documenting biodiversity, its diversification, and the system perspective. effects of human-induced changes – bioGENESIS. » www.igbp.net « » www.diversitas-international.org «

WCRP (World Climate Research IHDP (International Human Dimensions Programme) of Global Environmental Change Objectives: Developing the fundamental scientific Programme, Secretariat in Bonn) understanding of the physical climate system and climate Objectives: Fostering, coordinating and conducting social processes needed to determine to what extent climate can science research, contributing to interdisciplinary attempts be predicted and the extent of human influence on climate. of natural and social science capacity-building of research Structure: The main core projects focus on Climate and and policy communities, working at the interface between Cryosphere (CliC), Climate Variability and Predictability science and policy. (CLIVAR), Global Energy and Water Cycle Processes Structure: Current five core core projects: Global Environmen- (GEWEX), Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate tal Change and Human Security (GECHS), Industrial Transfor- (SPARC), Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere (SOLAS). mation (IT), Urbanisation and Global Environmental Change Modelling activities by different working groups lead to the (UGEC); co-sponsored with IGBP: Global Land Project (GLP), development of atmospheric circulation models for climate Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ). studies, numerical weather prediction, and coupled ocean/ » www.ihdp.org « atmosphere/land models. »wcrp.wmo.int «

Joint Projects on Global Sustainability

GWSP (Global Water System Project) indicators of the global water system); capacity building Objectives: Developing and promoting the global and (international summer school on water and climate); networking interdisciplinary dimensions of water research. and information exchange (digital world water atlas; global Activities: A wide range of activities focusing on developing catchment initiative; endorsed international projects on: the new knowledge (international comparison of estimates water cycle in Brazil, regional-scale green water fluxes, global of world water balance; development of internationally- change in the Danube basin). comparable environmental flows; elaboration of concepts of » www.gwsp.org « global governance of water; development of new integrated 39 Research Funding and Institutions

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) » www.bmbf.de «

The main contributors to the financing Global Change within the scope of Association (FhG). Their research of Global Change research in Germany short-term programmes. Additionally, facilities have a special significance are the German Federal Ministry of scientific institutions through-out in Global Change research because Education and Research (BMBF) and Germany receive institutional funding they operate instruments and systems. the German Research Foundation from the BMBF and also from their Research on Global Change relies on (DFG). respective federal states. These budgets complex equipment (e.g. aircrafts, are managed independently and are high-performance processors, ships The German Federal Ministry of self-administered. Also, significant and observatories). Additionally, Education and Research (BMBF) has amounts are mobilised for the scientific Helmholtz and Leibniz Associations several funding mechanisms designed infrastructure. The major beneficiaries address questions of Global Change to implement scientific objectives of institutional BMBF funding are four within research networks (“Earth in Global Change research. The large scientific organisations: Helmholtz System Science” and “Environmental project oriented funding serves to Association, Leibniz Association, Max Research”). solve specific scientific questions on Planck Society (MPG) and Fraunhofer

BIOTA AFRICA – An African-German Research Project for the Sustainable Use and Conservation of Biodiversity in Africa

The consequences of changes in and West, North and southern Africa. They losses to biodiversity in Africa, due to provide multi-disciplinary data series and climate change and the over-exploitation information on the complex causes and by humans are already visible. The effects of changes in biodiversity. The situation is alarming as natural resources inventory of the BIOTA AFRICA Project such as vegetation and soil still provide notably includes regions and groups of the economic backbone for many rural organisms which to date are insufficiently households in Africa. It is a major aim of documented (“filling the gaps”). The the international BIOTA AFRICA research long-term, interdisciplinary research at project to develop scientifically sound the observatories is conducted by over and policy-relevant pathways for the 300 scientists from Africa and Germany. sustainable utilisation and restoration of The project has developed a data and biodiversity in Africa. In order to support information management system called

BIOTA Africa a pan-African communication and BIOTABase to further improve software The Biodiversity Monitoring Transects data exchange network for sustainable for storage, administration and analyses of BIOTA AFRICA. development and biodiversity of ecological data and to enable regional conservation, the scientists from and continental comparability. The data Africa and Germany have developed is openly accessible for scientific and multidisciplinary standards to measure management purposes (www.biota- and analyse changes in biodiversity so africa.org). Interdisciplinary models that detailed and continuously updated have been developed which outline information on the status and ongoing major changes and trends as well as changes in biodiversity (species, genes their ecological, social and economic and ecosystems) is available from the local impacts. Capacity development is one to the continental level. A standardised of the project’s major ambitions. BIOTA Biodiversity Observation system has AFRICA has developed academic and already been established in Benin, Burkina non-academic training programmes for Faso, Cote d‘Ivoire, Democratic Republic students and land users in order to make of Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, sure that its scientific recommendations Namibia, South Africa and Uganda, for sustainable development and climate

U. Schmiedel along Biodiversity Monitoring Transects. change-driven adaptation options are BIOTA AFRICA cooperates closely with land The first Biodiversity Observatories were based on the social, economic and users in Africa (The photo shows a land user set up in 2001. Currently, more than 70 cultural realities of the target regions. and a member of the BIOTA AFRICA para-ecolo- Biodiversity Observatories exist in East, gist training programme). 40

German Research Foundation (DFG) » www.dfg.de «

he German Research Foundation the Earth System Science Partnership T STORMA (Stability of Rainforest (DFG) is the central funding organisation (ESSP). Funding is through a number of Margins in Indonesia) for universities in Germany. DFG individual projects and larger coordinated has been involved in funding Global programmes (Collaborative Research Project Duration: 2000-2012 Funding: DFG and several public Change research for a long time. As an Centres, Priority Programmes, Research donors in Indonesia organisation responsible for the funding Units, Research Training Groups, see of all disciplines, DFG is in charge of overview) which are initiated through a The stability of rainforest margin areas has been identified as a critical factor research related to all of the international bottom-up process. The overall annual in the protection of tropical forests. Global Change programmes (WCRP, funding dedicated to Global Change Stability has an ecological, social and IGBP, IHDP, DIVERSITAS) and research is around 50 million EUR. economic dimension. Understanding Overview on DFG-funded Projects and Programmes related the ecological and socio-economic determinants of land use change in to Global Change Research tropical rainforest margins on different Collaborative Research Centres 1294 Atmospheric and Earth System Research spatial scales is the key to identify (Sonderforschungsbereiche, SFB) with the”High Altitude and Long Range more suitable development objectives 299 Land Use Options for Peripheral Research Aircraft” (HALO) and programmes that better combine Regions 1315 Biogeochemical Interfaces in Soil 512 Cyclones and Climate System of the 1374 Biodiversity Exploratories nature conservation, poverty reduction North Atlantic and economic development of rural 552 Stability of Rainforest Margins in Research Units (Forschergruppen) areas. Indonesia (STORMA) 456 The Role of Biodiversity for Element The main objective of the STORMA as a 564 Sustainable Land Use and Rural Deve- Cycling and Trophic Interactions: An lopment in Mountainous Regions of Experimental Approach in a Grassland multidisciplinary research programme South-east Asia Community is to analyse processes that may 574 Volatiles and Fluids in Subduction 510 Ecological and Cultural Changes in West contribute to the stability of rainforest Zones: Climate Feedback and the and Central Africa margins and to the development of 536 Matter Fluxes in Grasslands of Inner Causes of Natural Disaster integrated concepts of sustainable 641 The Tropospheric Ice Phase (TROPICE) Mongolia as Influenced by Stocking 754 Climate – Biogeochemistry Interactions Rate (MAGIM) land use. Research foci in the third in the Tropical Oceans 539 Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment period (2006 - 2009) of STORMA are: SAMUM • integrated modelling of land Transregional Collaborative Research 584 Earth Rotation and Global Dynamic use in a highly dynamic tropical Centres (Transregio, TR) Processes 32 Patterns in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere 816 Biodiversity and Sustainable Manage- landscape: socio-economic and Systems: Monitoring, Modelling and ment of a Mega-diverse Mountain Eco- environmental effects of different Data Assimilation systems in Southern Ecuador strategies of resource use, • ecological and socio-economic Priority Programmes Research Training Groups (Schwerpunktprogramme, SPP) (Graduiertenkollegs) assessment of agroforestry 527 (Integrated) Ocean Drilling Programme 717 Proxies in Earth History management: upscaling from (IODP/ODP) 1070 Modelling Material Flows and Produc- the plot and household level to 1144 From Mantle to Ocean: Energy, Material tion Systems for Sustainable Resource villages and landscapes, and Life Cycles on Spreading Axes Use in Intensified Crop Production in • the Sulawesi Throughfall 1158 Antarctic Research with Comparable the North China Plain Investigations in Arctic Sea Ice Areas 1086 The Role of Biodiversity for Biogeoche- Displacement Experiment 1162 The Impact of Climate Variability on mical Cycles and Biotic Interactions in - Ecosystem and economic Aquatic Ecosystems (AQUASHIFT) Temperate Deciduous Forests responses to ENSO droughts in 1167 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast 1364 Interactions Between Tectonics, Climate rainforest and agro-forest. PQP (Praecipitationis Quantitati vae and Biosphere in the African-Asian Praedictio) Monsoonal Region » www.uni-goettingen.de/de/44103.html « 1176 Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth- System Graduate Schools (Graduiertenschulen) 1233 Megacities: Informal Dynamics of Global 119 Global Change in the Marine Realm Change 208 Graduate School for Integrated Studies 1257 Mass Transport and Mass Distribution in of Human Development in Landscapes the Earth System 1266 Integrated Analysis of Interglacial Cluster of Excellence (Exzellenzcluster) Climate Dynamics (Interdynamics) 80 The Future Ocean 1276 Multiple-Scale Modelling in Fluid 177 Integrated Climate System Analysis and Mechanics and Meteorology Prediction (CliSAP) 309 The Ocean in the Earth System

O. von Straaten 41

Max Planck Society (MPG) » www.mpg.de «

The Max Planck Society carries out models, for example, are theoretical • Are there options to manage or independent and non-profit research tools for investigating interrelations in control the Earth System in the in its own institutes and facilities, the Earth System. long term? which benefit from total autonomy in their choice of research foci, covering The research focuses on the following These activities are of international humanities, social sciences, life sciences, questions: relevance and are hence closely coupled natural sciences and engineering sciences internationally with large research and working in close cooperation • Which feedbacks and long distance programmes, notably the International with other research institutions and relations of the Earth System are Geosphere-Biosphere Programme universities. At the present time, there especially important? (IGBP). are 77 institutes and research facilities • What regions and components have all over Germany and in some partner a particularly sensitive reaction to Other topics related to Global Change countries. Global Change? are: Fundamentals of sustainable energy • Are there critical thresholds that supply (e.g. hydrogen) and changes Earth Science and Climate Research lead to abrupt changes in the Earth in biodiversity, both with numerous Max Planck Institutes in Mainz, System? institutes involved. Hamburg, Jena and other partnering IMPRS (International Max Planck Research Schools) institutions have joined to form the Earth System Research Partnership. Its goal is IMPRS for Atmospheric Physics and IMPRS on Earth System Modelling an integrated approach to Earth System Chemistry The Research School on Earth System Science, focussing on the interactions This Research School is a joint initiative Modelling offers Ph.D. students from all of the MPI for Chemistry, Mainz, and over the world the possibility to pursue between human activities, land-based Mainz University. Other partners are the their studies in Earth System sciences. The ecosystems, oceans and atmosphere, Atmospheric Physics Department of the research contributes to the development and applying aircraft and ground-based MPI for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg and examination of models that evaluate measurements, remote sensing and and the Universities of Heidelberg the mechanisms of the Earth System by modelling. The understanding of the and Frankfurt. The Research School taking into account a number of time Earth System and its interactions are a investigates atmospheric physical- and spatial scales and by assessing these basic prerequisite for the definition of chemical processes and the human mechanisms from different scientific influence on Global Change. Improved viewpoints. The research is combined economic and political strategies for an understanding of these processes with courses on basic and specific ideal and sustainable use of the planet’s contributes to the development of aspects of the Earth System; the lectures resources. atmospheric chemistry and climate are geared to the interdisciplinary models which will play an increasingly background of the students who work Approaches involved are threefold: important role in the assessment of at internationally renowned institutes measurements and in-situ experiments global climate change. The research in Germany, performing research into topics address sensitive regions of Global Change. The Research School are required to examine processes within the atmosphere that have received is financed in nearly equal parts by the the components. To support such relatively little attention up until now, MPG and the ZEIT Foundation Ebelin measurements, the Max Planck Society for example in the tropics. By combining and Gerd Bucerius as well as the partner operates long-term measurement stations high quality research, state-of-the- institutes: Hamburg University, GKSS and is a key partner in the acquisition art instrumentation and innovative Research Centre, Hamburg Institute and use of the HALO research aircraft. education methods, the initiators attract of International Economics, Centre for talented and highly motivated young Environmental Systems Research and Secondly, the earth has to be analysed scientists from all over the world. the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact on large time and space scales in order » www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/1280 « Research (PIK). The school focuses on to understand regional, global and international cooperation, which strives long-term processes and alterations. among other things to facilitate the For a survey of global or continental exchange of students and to admit junior phenomena, the use and analysis of scientists, particularly from emerging satellite data is irreplaceable. The third and developing countries. » www.earthsystemschool.de « main pillar is modelling. Numeric 42

Helmholtz Association » www.helmholtz.de «

The Helmholtz Association identifies Research Consortium (Konsortium Helmholtz Centres Involved and addresses the huge challenges Deutsche Meeresforschung, KDM), ten facing society, science and industry, partners from universities, Helmholtz Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and in particular through its research into Association, Max Planck Society and Marine Research (AWI) highly complex systems. Its 15 national Leibniz Association plan and coordinate German Aerospace Center (DLR) research centres carry out scientific- their marine, polar and coastal research Research Centre Jülich (FZJ) Research Centre Karlsruhe - Helmholtz technical and biological-medical activities. Centre for Infection Research (HZI) research. Helmholtz concentrates GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam its core competences and resources Other subjects related to Global (GFZ) on strategic programmes aimed at Change research are found in the field GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht increasing the efficiency, flexibility and of “Aeronautics, Space and Transport“ Helmholtz Zentrum München target-oriented focus of its research. addressing, amongst others, questions –German Research Centre for Environmental Health Funding is provided by the federal and related to the development of innovative Helmholtz Centre for Environmental state governments. solutions for environmentally friendly Research (UFZ) and energy-efficient transport, and in Earth and Environment the research field “Energy” (renewable The work done by the scientists aims to energies, efficient energy conversion). provide the most accurate description possible of the consequences of the far-reaching and complex changes Helmholtz-EOS (Integrated Earth Observation System) to the earth and the environment in order that government and society can The network is intended to facilitate financed from the resources contributed the work of scientists in depicting and by each participating centre for the work plan ahead. The research field “Earth modelling processes spatially and each carries out within the network’s and Environment” brings together temporally at high resolution and in individual research programmes. researchers from the natural sciences monitoring the status and trends of the Coordination of topics and allocation of and social sciences to work in close Earth System. The physical and chemical resources are handled by the network’s collaboration for the benefit of science, tolerances of processes critical for human steering committee. The network can be society and government. life also need to be defined, as well as expanded to address further topics with long-term monitoring of global, regional the participation of additional Helmholtz and local changes. centres, universities and research Their environmental research focuses Thanks to their expertise, scientific institutions. on addressing the major challenges infrastructure and facilities, the Helmholtz identified by national and international centres AWI, DLR, Forschungszentrum Envisat in Orbit. bodies: Natural disasters, climate Karlsruhe, FZJ, GFZ and GKSS have the fluctuations and climate change, the necessary preconditions for jointly pursuing crucial research topics in this availability of and access to clean water, context and achieving added value. sustainable use of resources, biodiversity The Helmholtz research fields “Earth and ecological stability as well as the and Environment” and “Aeronautics, socio-political dimension of Global Space and Transport” are being linked Change. The research field “Earth and to create an “Integrated Earth Observing Environment” addresses these central System”. Its purpose is to concentrate ESA expertise and share infrastructure and challenges through six programmes: Delta of Rio Negro / Province Patagonia. data, in seven research programmes: Climate Changes in Polar Regions, Global Interest Groups were established on Changes and Processes in Oceans, Coastal Megacities, Natural Disasters and Zones and Land Surface, Trends in the Technology Assessment. In addition, six Hydrological Cycle, Changes in Chemistry Helmholtz Centres are combining their and Dynamics of the Atmosphere, Global resources in a project called Helmholtz- Risks Assessment and New Methods of Radar Remote Sensing. These activities are EOS (see box). In the German Marine DLR 43

Leibniz Association » www.leibniz-association.eu «

The Leibniz Association is a network a multi-faceted approach to climate The economic impact of climate change of 82 scientifically, legally and investigations on different timescales. The is the subject of the work of the Kiel economically independent research Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Institute for the World Economy (IfW) institutes and scientific service facilities. in Warnemünde (IOW) is hosting whose research area “Climate and Leibniz Institutes carry out strategic a project aimed at the development Energy” concentrates on the complex and thematically oriented research of Policies & Adaptation Strategies interaction of energy demand, the and offer scientific services of national to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea supply of exhaustible fossil energy and significance. They strive to find scientific Region. The Centre for Tropical Marine climate goals. The research department solutions for major social challenges. Ecology (ZMT), an associated member “Energy, Transportation, Environment” Leibniz Institutes employ more than of the Leibniz Association, is involved of the German Institute for Economic 13,700 people, 5,700 of whom are in an interdisciplinary research project Research (DIW) specifically examines academics, including 2,100 junior aimed at assessing and modelling the ways in which a climate-friendly, scientists. impact of ENSO (El Niño Southern competitive and secure energy system Leibniz Institutes contribute to Oscillation) induced climate variability can be ensured. clusters of excellence in fields such as on the Humboldt Current Large Marine Five Leibniz Institutes (IOW, IfT, IfW, mathematics, optical technologies, Ecosystem (HCLME) and its resources IFM-GEOMAR, PIK) are partners in the materials research, medicine, climate and resource users. German Climate Consortium (DKK), and environmental research, bio- and The regional impacts of climate change founded in 2007 as a new platform nanotechnology as well as humanities, on the north-east of Germany were for climate research at the interface of economics and social sciences. Leibniz simulated by the Leibniz Centre for society, economy and environment. Institutes foster close cooperation with Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF). The Leibniz Institute of Marine universities, industry and other research The Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) and the institutes, both in Germany and Research (IfT) in Leipzig concentrates Kiel Institute for the World Economy abroad. The Leibniz Association has on the investigation of aerosols, i.e. small (IfW) are partners of the University of developed a comprehensive system of airborne particles, and clouds and their Kiel in the cluster of excellence “The quality management. In the unique peer strong but relatively poorly understood Future Ocean” (see box). review evaluation process, independent relationships with climate and health. experts assess every institute at regular The Future Ocean intervals. (Cluster of excellence approved by the German Research Foundation)

Leibniz Institutes and Global Change Project Duration: 2007 – 2012 between humans and the sea. Research Funding: German Research Foundation In “The Future Ocean“, experts from Several Leibniz Institutes work in the The ocean covers more than two thirds of diverse specialist areas are combining our planet. Even so, we know more about their expertise: For example, lawyers and field of climate research. They try to the surface of the moon than about the geoscientists are investigating questions promote the understanding of climate depths of the seas. This, in spite of the fact on how and who has the right to exploit and its influence on ecosystems, climate that mankind‘s future lies in the world‘s resources on the seafloor. Climatologists reconstruction, modelling and climate seas. They determine the climate of and economists are working on the policies. The research done at the PIK is tomorrow across the entire globe – and question of what conditions make are already suffering from the advance CO storage on the seafloor a relevant wholly dedicated to questions of global 2 of global warming. New raw materials option. Marine scientists, medics, warming. and sources of energy can be found on mathematicians, chemists, engineers Due to the huge impact of the oceans the seafloor– how can we exploit them? and social scientists are working on on the global climate, the Leibniz Many marine organisms may harbour many other questions. Association’s marine research institutes the secrets to cures for diseases – if they are intensely involved in climate research. are still around tomorrow. An entire research division, “Ocean These are just some of the aspects that Circulation and Climate Dynamics” at the Kiel cluster „The Future Ocean“ is investigating. The aim: to increase our the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences understanding of ocean change and its at the Christian-Albrecht University of associated potential and risks, in order to Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR), is working on enter into a new symbiotic relationship IFM-GEOMAR Future Research 44

A coherent research strategy on science partners and research and funding Thematic Area I: Development Global Change, embedded in the institutions, compiled a policy paper in of the Components of the societal context, needs to connect the 2005 prioritising central research topics concept of sustainable development for the future strategy of Global Change Earth System – Understanding and its implementation into politics research. Three years later, this policy Specific Processes, Course of and society. The fundamentals of such a document is supplemented with an Action strategy are basic skills, orientation skills implementation strategy for a national Variations and Trends in the Earth Sy- and applicable skills. On all three levels, research programme (this will be discussed stem skills generation has improved during with the scientific community at the Change of Composition and Dynamics recent years. However, skills gaps not 4th NKGCF-Colloquium). Apart from of the Atmosphere yet covered need to be systematically interdisciplinary research, such a research Ocean Circulation and Sea Level filled through scientific research and programme also aims at dissolving the Changes development. In order to identify the boundaries between academic research Change of Biosphere and Biodiversity Change of Intensity/Frequency of Ex- most urgent research questions, the and research carried out at research treme Events and their Predictability following criteria have been established institutions. A further idea behind Material Flows in the Earth System by the German National Committee on the setting up of such an ambitious Biogeochemical Cycles Global Change Research (NKGCF). The research programme is that it will lead Water Cycle questions should: to networking between the national Options and Instruments for Global • be embedded into the overall institutions that fund the research. The Carbon Management Energy – Mobility – Climate context of Global Change, and proposed interdisciplinary national simultaneously, cover questions of research programme “Coping with relevance to human society, Global Change – Land Use in the Area Thematic Area II: • lead to a better understanding and of Conflict of Resource Conservation, Global Change and Society an improved prognostic ability on a Food and Energy” should focus on areas global and regional scale, like ecosystem services, food, energy and Technology Change • address interactions between natural urbanisation as being in conflict over Consumer Patterns and societal components within the the finite resource that is the global land Integration and Reorganisation of In- Earth System, surface. Since changes in regional land ternational Environmental Regimes Health and Global Change • lead from fundamental research use also have a global effect, the research Migration questions to options for action, interests of the programme should be • be embedded in ESSP, i.e. in the on the regional (defined as hotspots of international coordinated research Global Change) and global scale and Thematic Area III: programmes WCRP, IGBP, IHDP, should focus on different timescales DIVERSITAS, or be a complement (short- and long-term) as well as the Regional Effects of Global to such programmes. interactions between the scales. National Change – Integrative Analysis research should contribute to European and Management Taking into consideration the criteria and global efforts in understanding the Integrative Analysis and Management mentioned above, NKGCF, in a dialogue Earth System and its interaction with of the Anthroposphere with the scientific community (during humankind as well as in understanding Urban and Peri-Urban Habitats the 3rd NKGCF-Colloquium), national the adaptation to climate change. Rural-Peripheral Habitats Coastal Zones Dryland Areas Short-term effects Long-term effects Mountainous Regions Permafrost Regions

Preservation, Stabilisation and Reha- bilitation of Natural Resources and Global Ecosystem Services (ESS) Functions of Ecosystems Soil Fertility Regional Water Availability and Water Quality Air Quality Food Production Urban Biodiversity

Energy Production Illustration about the contents of the National Research Programme “Coping with Global Change“. Scientific Secretariat NKGCF(K. Scientific Schmid) Secretariat Members of NKGCF 45 2006 – 2008

Prof.-Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dr. Johannes Karte (Ex-offico) Dr. Inge Paulini (Ex-offico) University of Kassel German Research Foundation Federal Environmental Agency Centre for Environmental System Research Department II, Geosciences Department I „Strategies for Sustainability Kurt-Wolters-Straße 3 Coordination Environmental Research and Information“ 34109 Kassel Kennedyallee 40 Wörlitzer Platz 1 Phone +49 561 804 3898 53175 Bonn 06844 Dessau Fax +49 561 804 7266 Phone +49 228 885 2319 Phone +49 340 2103 2105 [email protected] Fax +49 228 885 2777 Fax +49 340 2104 2105 [email protected] [email protected] Prof. Dr. Meinrat O. Andreae Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Prof. Dr. Gernot Klepper Prof. Dr. Peter-Tobias Stoll Department of Biogeochemistry University of Kiel Georg August University of Göttingen Becherweg 27 Kiel Institute of World Economics Institute for International Law and European Law 55128 Mainz Düsternbrooker Weg 120 International Business Law and Environmental Law Phone +49 6131 305 421 24105 Kiel Platz der Göttinger Sieben 5 Fax +49 6131 305 487 Phone +49 431 8814 485 37073 Göttingen [email protected] Fax +49 431 8814 522 Phone +49 551 39 4661 [email protected] Fax +49 551 39 4767 Prof. Dr.-Ing. Habil. Wilhelm Dangelmaier [email protected] University of Paderborn Prof. Dr. Frauke Kraas Heinz Nixdorf Institute University of Cologne Prof. Dr. Georg Teutsch Fürstenallee 11 Department of Geography Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Re- 33102 Paderborn Albertus-Magnus-Platz search Phone +49 5251 60 6485 50923 Köln Permoserstraße 15 Fax +49 5251 60 6483 Phone +49 221 470 7050 04318 Leipzig [email protected] Fax +49 221 470 4917 Phone +49 341 235 2242 [email protected] Fax +49 341 235 2791 Dr. Gisela Helbig (Ex-offico) [email protected] Federal Ministry of Education and Research Prof. Dr. Peter Lemke Heinemannstr. 2 Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Prof. Dr. Paul L. G. Vlek 53175 Bonn Marine Research Centre for Development Research Phone +49 1888 57 2071 Bussestr. 24 University of Bonn [email protected] 27570 Bremerhaven Walter-Flex-Straße 3 Phone +49 471 4831 1750 53113 Bonn Dr. Bettina Höll (Ex-offico) Fax +49 471 4831 1797 Phone +49 228 7318 66 Scientific Secretariat NKGCF [email protected] Fax +49 228 7318 89 Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich [email protected] Department of Geography Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke Luisenstraße 37 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Prof. Dr. Gerold Wefer 80333 Munich Bundesstr. 53 MARUM – University of Bremen Phone +49 89 2180 6747 20146 Hamburg Leobener Strasse Fax +49 89 2180 99 6592 Phone +49 40 41173 440 28359 Bremen [email protected] Fax +49 40 41173 366 Phone +49 421 218 65500 [email protected] Fax +49 421 218 65505 Prof. Dr. Norbert Jürgens [email protected] University of Hamburg Prof. Dr. Wolfram Mauser Department of Botany and Botanic Garden Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Prof. Dr. Wolfgang W. Weisser Ohnhorststrasse 18 Department of Geography University of Jena 22609 Hamburg Luisenstr. 37 Institute of Ecology Phone +49 40 428 16 260 80333 Munich Dornburger Straße 159 Fax +49 40 428 16 261 Phone +49 89 2180 6676 07749 Jena [email protected] Fax +49 89 2180 6675 Phone +49 63641 949 410/400 [email protected] Fax +49 3641 949 402 Prof. Dr. Elisabeth Kalko [email protected] University of Ulm Department of Experimental Ecology Albert-Einstein-Allee 11 89069 Ulm Phone +49 731 502 2660 Fax +49 731 502 2683 [email protected]

German National Committee on Global Change Research

» www.nkgcf.org «