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Global Change Research in Germany 2008 German National Committee On Global Change Research Global Change Research in Germany 2008 NKGCF Imprint Published by German National Committee on Global Change Research (NKGCF) Department of Geography Luisenstraße 37 D - 80333 Munich phone ++49 (0) 89 21 80 65 92 fax ++49 (0) 89 21 80 99 65 92 [email protected] | www.nkgcf.org © German National Committee on Global Change Research (NKGCF), March 2008 ISBN 978-3-9808099-5-5 Image credits (front cover): J. Browning, ioFoto.com, A. Gulzar, J. Gutt, S. Knight, F. Kraas, H. Lehmannova, J. McIntosh, G. Niewiadomski, R. Schuster, O. von Straaten, M. Thyssen, S. Wunderlich Concept and Editorial Work Bettina Höll Wolfram Mauser Jutta Bachmann (linguistic editing) » www.jbachmann-consulting.com « Authors and Contributors Joseph Alcamo Norbert Jürgens Jochem Marotzke Meinrat Andreae Johannes Karte Wolfram Mauser Mariam Akhtar-Schuster Elisabeth Kalko Michael Schulz Dietrich Borchardt Martin Kaltschmitt Ralf Seppelt Ulrich Callies Gernot Klepper Peter-Tobias Stoll Wolfgang Cramer Stefan Klotz Georg Teutsch Christoph Görg Frauke Kraas Paul Vlek Bernd Hansjürgens Hartwig Kremer Gerold Wefer Martin Heimann Stefan Kroll Wolfgang Weisser Gisela Helbig Jos Lelieveld Hans von Storch Daniela Jacob Peter Lemke Steffen Zacharias Layout Scientific Secretariat of NKGCF (K. Schmid) Production DRUCK PUNKT Munich » www.druck-punkt.com « Editorial Note The selection of introduced projects and programmes represent and exemplify German research activities on Global Change. Please note that several more projects and programmes in Germany address Global Change research. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) for the printing of this publication. Global Change Research in Germany 2008 edited by Bettina Höll and Wolfram Mauser on behalf of the German National Committee on Global Change Research (NKGCF) Munich, 2008 Abbreviations and Acronyms ACACIA Arid Climate and Cultural Innovation FZK Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe / Research MARCO- Marine, Coastal and Polar Systems in Africa Centre Karlsruhe POLI ACSYS Arctic Climate System Study GAIM Global Analysis, Integration and Model- MARUM Zentrum für Marine Umweltwissenschaften AIMES Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling of ling / Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences the Earth System GBF Gesellschaft für Biotechnologische MICE Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes ARGO Array for Real-Time Geostrophic Ocea- Forschung / German Research Centre for MPG Max-Planck-Gesellschaft / Max Planck nography Biotechnology Society ATEAM Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis GCP Global Carbon Project MPI Max-Planck-Institut / Max Planck and Modelling GDP Gross Domestic Product Institute AVEC Assessment of Vulnerable Ecosystems GECAFS Global Environmental Change and Food NADW North Atlantic Deep Water under Global Change Systems NEP Net Ecosystem Production AWI Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar- und GECHS Global Environmental Change and Hu- NKGCF Nationales Komitee für Global Change Meeresforschung / Alfred Wegener Insti- man Security Forschung / German National Comittee tute for Polar and Marine Research GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of on Global Change Research BIOLOG Biodiversity and Global Change Systems PAGES Past Global Changes BMBF Bundesministerium für Bildung und GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experi- PDF Probability Density Function Forschung / German Federal Ministry of ment PIK Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgen- Education and Research GFZ GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam forschung / Potsdam Institute for Cli- BOD Burden of Disease GHG Greenhouse Gas mate Impact Research BSH Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht / Re- REM Regional Environmental Model Hydrographie / Federal Maritime and search Centre Geesthacht RSV Research and Supply Vessel Hydrographic Agency GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar CARIBIC Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investiga- GLOWA Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle tion of the Atmosphere Based on an SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Instrument Container GLP Global Land Project GNI Gross National Income SFB Sonderforschungsbereich / Collaborative cCASHh Climate Change and Adaption Strategies Research Centre GPS Global Positioning System for Human Health SOLAS Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study CITES Convention on International Trade in GSF Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und SPARC Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Endangered Species Gesundheit / National Research Centre Climate CLiC Climate and Cryosphere for Environment and Health GWSP Global Water System Project SPP Schwerpunktprogramm / Priority CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability Programme COCE Conservation and Use of Wild Popula- HALO High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft STORMA Stability of Tropical Rainforest Margins tions of Coffea arabica in the Montane in Indonesia Rainforests of Ethiopia HLRE Höchstleistungsrechnersystem / High Performance Computing System UBA Umweltbundesamt / Federal Environ- COSMOS Community Earth System Model mental Agency DALY Disease-Adjusted Live Year ICBM Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres / Institute for Chemistry and UFZ Umweltforschungszentrum / Centre for DEKLIM Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm / Biology of the Marine Environment Environmental Research German Climate Research Programme ICSU International Council for Science UN United Nations DFG Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft / Ger- UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biologi- man Research Foundation IDGEC Institutional Dimensions of Global Environment Change cal Diversity DKRZ Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum / Ger- IEA International Engery Agency UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat man Climate Research Centre Desertification IFM- Leibnitz- Institut für Meereswissen- DLR Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raum- UNEP United Nations Environment Programme fahrt / German Aerospace Centre GEOMAR schaften / Leibnitz Institute of Marine Sciences UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst / Germany’s on Climate Change National Meteorology Service IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme USP Unit Stream Power-Based Model ECO- Institut für Internationale und Eu- LOGIC ropäische Umweltpolitik / Institute for IHDP International Human Dimensions VAS- Variability Analysis of Surface Climate International and European Environmen- Programme CLIMO Observations tal policy IMBER Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and WBGU Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Globaler EEA European Environment Agency Ecosystem Research Umweltveränderungen / German Advi- sory Council on Global Change EOS Earth Observation System IMPRS International Max Planck Research School WCRP World Climate Research Programme ESF European Science Foundation IOW Institut für Ostseeforschung WDCC World Data Centre for Climate ESSP Earth System Science Partnership Warnemünde / Baltic Sea Research Insti- WGCM Working Group on Coupled Modelling EU European Union tute, Warnemünde WHO World Health Organisation FEU Forschungsstelle für Europäisches IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Umweltrecht / Research Centre for Euro- Change WMO World Meteorological Organisation pean Environmental Law ISSC International Social Science Council WTO World Trade Organisation FFU Forschungsstelle für Umweltpolitik / IT Industrial Transformation YLL Years of Life Lost Environmental Policy Research Centre ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone ZEF Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung / FhG Fraunhofer Gesellschaft / Fraunhofer Centre for Development Research Association KDM Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung ZMAW Zentrum für Marine und Atmosphäri- fona Forschung für Nachhaltigkeit / Research LOICZ Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone sche Wissenschaften / Centre for Marine for Sustainability and Atmospheric Sciences FZJ Forschungszentrum Jülich / Research LUCC Land-Use Cover Change MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ZMT Zentrum für Marine Tropenökologie / Centre Jülich Centre for Tropical Marine Ecology Table of Contents section page title I Introduction 1 Global Change Research – Science for a Sustainable Future II Science Issues 3 Water Cycle and Water Availability 5 Biodiversity 7 Global Change in the Ocean 9 Polar Research 11 Drylands and Desertification 13 Coastal Zone Management 15 Carbon Cycle Research 17 Atmospheric Changes 19 Land Use Change 21 Megacities 23 Global Change and Health 25 Extreme Events 27 Energy – Mobility – Climate 29 Governance and Institutions 31 Observing Systems 33 Modelling the Future 35 Past Records of Global Change III Framework 37 German Contributions to International Global Change Programmes and ESSP 39 Research Funding and Institutions 44 Future Research 45 Members of NKGCF 2006 – 2008 Global Change Research – 1 Science for a Sustainable Future Global Change summarises the effects Global Change of humankind’s growing interference with the Earth System. This interference, Over the past few decades, evidence originate from human activities, ranging both on the global and regional scale, has been growing that planetary- from the artificial fixation of nitrogen has greatly increased during the last scale changes are occurring very and the emission of greenhouse gases century. rapidly. These are, in turn, changing to the conversion and fragmentation the patterns of forcings and feedbacks of natural vegetation and the loss of Human Beings and the Environment that characterize the internal dynamics biological species. It is
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