IGBP Report 55 International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Science Plan and Implementation Strategy Citation This report should be cited as follows: IGBP (2006) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 55. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 76pp. Front Cover Illustration The cover illustration is a depiction of the Earth System, highlighting the complexities of and cross-scale interactions between the different elements of the system. The structure of the illustration mirrors the programme structure of IGBP, which is built around the Earth System compartments of land, atmosphere and ocean, the interfaces between these compartments, and system-wide integration. At the centre of the illustration is the Earth – reflecting the IGBP focus on the Earth System – with a superimposed grid indicating the importance of Earth System modelling. The illustra- tion emphasises the importance of physical, chemical and biological processes from the molecular to the global scale. Evidence of human activities is apparent in each Earth System compartment, reflecting the growing focus of IGBP and research partners on the coupled human-environment system. The illustration was commissioned by IGBP to help communicate IGBP science and to strengthen visual integration across IGBP products. Publication Details Published by: ISSN 0284-8105 IGBP Secretariat Copyright © 2006 Box 50005 SE-104 05, Stockholm, SWEDEN Copies of this report can be downloaded from the Ph: +46 8 166448 IGBP website and hard copies can be ordered from Fax: +46 8 166405 the IGBP Secretariat. Web: www.igbp.net Editors: Bill Young, Kevin Noone and Will Steffen Series Editor: Bill Young Graphic Design: Hilarie Cutler Science Plan and Implementation Strategy Prepared by IGBP Secretariat staff: Wendy Broadgate Susannah Eliott João Morais Kevin Noone Will Steffen Bill Young and the following SC-IGBP members (past and present): Meinrat Andreae, Germany Guy Brasseur, United States Sandra Lavorel, France Karin Lochte, Germany Carlos Nobre, Brazil Berrien Moore III, United States Katherine Richardson, Denmark Mark Stafford Smith, Australia An Zhisheng, China (Beijing) with contributions to text boxes also provided by: Robert Buddemeier, United States James Galloway, United States Roger Hanson, United States Timothy Jickells, United Kingdom Bernd Kromer, Germany Steven Smith, United States Andrew Watson, United Kingdom Preface This Science Plan and Implementation Strategy sets out the research agenda for the second phase of IGBP. This phase will need to be even more integrative than the first, and therein lies a major challenge. We cannot lose sight of the need for focused, disciplinary research in areas where process-level Earth System understanding is poor. Yet at the same time, we must address over-arching questions that require a systemic – not just a systematic – approach. We must combine research on Earth System components (atmosphere, land and ocean) with research on processes occurring at the interfaces between components, and we must integrate across all of these to develop diagnostic and predictive capabilities for the Earth System. Herein, we describe our strategy for producing high quality, unbiased, credible, fundamental scientific research in the area of global change: a strategy centred on ten projects, to be carried out by the several thousand scientists worldwide who are part of the IGBP network. Further, we describe how we will communicate the results of this research to different audiences, in order to realise our vision: “to provide scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth”. This should be considered a living document. Like IGBP itself, is has evolved considerably since the first draft. It is neither a static nor an exclusive plan for the second phase of IGBP, but rather, is a guide book for our continued scientific journey. We describe how IGBP developed over the years and moved into its second phase, how we responded to the changing research landscape and our plans for the evolution of the network. As with any good guide book, we have tried to identify the major vistas that IGBP will visit in the next eight years, but have purposefully left ample opportunity for further exploration. We expect the guidebook to be updated as the journey continues and as new territory is explored. This document is the work of many hands and minds. As such, it illustrates one of the greatest strengths of IGBP: the willingness of a large number of scientists around the world to voluntarily give their time and expertise to the common endeavour of building the scientific infrastructure necessary to conduct global change research. We believe the document reflects the diversity of expertise, disciplines and cultures that characterises our scientific community, and their commitment to addressing some of the most important scientific issues of our time: understanding how our planet functions in a holistic sense including the important role of humans, and mapping out a sustainable future for humankind. Carlos Nobre, Chair SC-IGBP Guy Brasseur, Past Chair SC-IGBP Kevin Noone, IGBP Executive Director Will Steffen, IGBP Executive Director (1998–2004) Acknowledgements This Science Plan and Implementation Strategy has Importantly, the science agenda outlined in this document benefited from varying types and levels of input, advice is largely based on the science agendas of IGBP projects, and comment from many people during the several years and thus thanks are extended to the scientific committees over which it evolved. The authors and editors thank of these projects and to cosponsoring organisations. The all SC-IGBP members during 2003–05 – especially the cosponsoring organisations include IHDP, SCOR, WCRP, chairs of IGBP project SSCs – for their contributions IOC (of UNESCO) and CACGP (of IAMAS). Addition- and guidance, including during discussion groups at ally, as articulated in this document, ESSP is increasingly the 2005 SC-IGBP meeting. All Executive Officers of important for the integration and policy relevance of IGBP IGBP projects and ESSP projects during 2003–05 are science; IGBP thanks its ESSP partners (DIVERSITAS, similarly thanked for their contributions and comments. IHDP and WCRP) for their support. From the IGBP Secretariat, John Bellamy, Sofia Roger and Charlotte Wilson-Boss assisted in preparation of the Finally of course, none of this would have been achieved document. The several people who provided construc- without the continued financial support from over forty tive reviews (in late 2004 and late 2005) are thanked for countries, the financial and institutional support from their time and contributions. ICSU, and the support for the IGBP Secretariat of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm. Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................1 Introduction.................................................................................................3 The Scientific Basis...................................................................................................6 Systemic Behaviour.......................................................................................................................6 Natural Variability...........................................................................................................................7 The Role of the Biosphere............................................................................................................8 Human Influence...........................................................................................................................8 The Research Challenge...........................................................................................13 IGBP Projects and Activities.....................................................................................16 PAGES.........................................................................................................17 IGAC..............................................................................................................21 iLEAPS.........................................................................................................25 GLP.........................................................................................................................29 LOICZ.........................................................................................................33 GLOBEC and IMBER..................................................................................................................37 SOLAS................................................................................................................43 AIMES...............................................................................................................47 Fast-Track Initiatives....................................................................................................................50 Integration and Synthesis............................................................................................................50 Implementation Strategy..........................................................................................54 International Frameworks for Collaborative Research.................................................................54 Research Networks to Tackle Focused Scientific Questions..................................................55 Institutional Network for Earth System Science..........................................................................55