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Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9” black and white photographic prints are availat)le for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. Bell & Howell Information and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Artwr, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 UMT PROBLEMS OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION IN POST-COMMUNIST BULGARIA DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of the Ohio State University By Rossen V. Vassilev, M.A. The Ohio State University 2000 Dissertation Committee: Professor Richard Gunther, Adviser Approved by Professor Anthony Mughan Professor Goldie Shabad Adviser Department of Political Science UMI Number 9971652 UMI UMI Microform9971652 Copyright 2000 by Bell & Howell Information and Leaming Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Information and Leaming Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Aitor, Ml 48106-1346 ABSTRACT This dissertation attempts to explain why post-Communist Bulgaria has successfully established a new democratic order but has so far failed to become a truly consolidated democracy. In order to accoimt for this hardly unexpected outcome, the study brings into analytical focus key propositions derived from the recent democratization literature. The major hypotheses of the mainstream approaches to democratic transition and consolidation are tested systematically and rigorously for the purpose of measuring the impact of both structural and micropolitical factors upon the coimtry’s democratization trajectory. The first part of the analysis imderscores that the Bulgarian transition has taken place under inauspicious structural and contextual circumstances that are generally unfavorable to democratic transition and consolidation. These include (a) the legacies of a highly divisive modem history, (b) weak democratic traditions and generally impropitious historical heritage from a distant semi-democratic past, (c) a revolution of rising (and thus far disappointed) expectations among a discontented population, as the most enduring legacy of the relatively successful modernization of the country under the Communist regime, (d) a combination of fiscal, macroeconomic, social, health, and demographic crises of destabilizing proportions, (e) ethnic tensions and conflicts which are just short of a stateness crisis. 11 The second part of the analysis demonstrates that the political elite has made major strides toward successful democratization in spite of the inauspicious objective conditions, but has been unable to consolidate fully the new set of political and economic institutions in Bulgaria. Even though intensive high-level negotiations were held and several comprehensive political agreements were signed, the main party elites have often pursued the individually “rational” strategy of maximizing the “benefits” of power domination while minimizing the “costs” of concessions to and cooperation with the opposing side, thus leading to the collectively “irrational” outcome of political polarization and fierce partisan confrontation. Such a myopic rational, zero-sum strategy may have facilitated the anti- Communist opposition’s successful “march across the institutions” but has at the same time precipitated a ferocious political conflict between Left and Right, leading to the fundamental disruption of the consolidation process. As a result, the democratic project has run into some major hiu*dles of institutional, attitudinal and especially behavioral nature. The dissertation concludes that the explicit theoretical criteria for full democratic consolidation have not been met. Ill Dedicated to the memory of my parents IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The work on this dissertation was completed thanks to the contribution of many people, which comes to confirm the general recognition that a dissertation is almost by definition a collective effort. First of all, I wish to thank the members of my dissertation committee. Professors Richard Gimther, Goldie Shabad and Anthony Mughan, all of whom must be given credit for being the co-authors of this study. Next, I would like to acknowledge the invaluable assistance of Professor Albert Melone of the Southern Illinois University at Carbondale, Illinois, who was kind enough to provide me with his unpublished manuscript on democratization in post-Communist Bulgaria. The manuscript contains Dr. Melone’s primary research, which is based on a series of in-depth interviews with top Bulgarian politicians and judicial officials. Finally, the research on this dissertation owes a lot to my father, Vasil Vasilev, who made a valuable contribution before he passed away on 14 October 1999. Not only did my father encourage my efforts to finish this work, but he acted throughout the dissertation- writing process as my research assistant and consultant, making helpful suggestions, offering insightful comments, and collecting almost 700 pages of primary and secondary research data, including interviews with members of the Bulgarian political elite, many of whom he knew personally. VITA December 23, 1952 ......................................... Bom—Burgas, Bulgaria 1991 ...................................................................M.A. in Political Science, The Ohio State University 1994-present ..................................................... Graduate Teaching and Research Associate. The Ohio State University PUBLICATIONS Research Publication R. Vassilev, “Modernization Theory Revisited: The Case of Bulgaria.” East European Politics and Societies 13, no. 3 (1999). FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science VI TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... ii Dedication.................................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................... v Vita............................................................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents .................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................x Chapters 1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................1 Perspectives on democratization.................................................................... 7 Research design and methodology............................................................... 11 Sources of data.............................................................................................. 24 Outline of the study .......................................................................................26 2. Electoral democracy....................................................................................................28 Elections and electoral fiaud........................................................................ 29 1990 GNA election ........................................................................... 31 1991 parliamentary election ............................................................ 38 1992 presidential election .................................................................43 1994 parliamentary election ............................................................ 47 1996 presidential election .................................................................50 1997 parliamentary election .............................................................54 Restrictions on political parties....................................................................57 Political and civil liberties ............................................................................ 61 3. Partial consolidation................................................................................................... 69 vn Structural dimension ......................................................................................75 Attitudinal dimension....................................................................................84