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Climate Change and Alpine Vegetation Shifts on Mountaintop Summits in Norway

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Climate Change and Alpine Vegetation Shifts on Mountaintop Summits in Norway Faculty of Bioscience Engineering Academic year 2015 – 2016 Climate Change and Alpine Vegetation Shifts on Mountaintop Summits in Norway Thomas Vanneste Promotors: prof. dr. ir. Pieter De Frenne and prof. dr. ir. Kris Verheyen Master thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Bioscience Engineering: Land and Water Management Preface The field work and data collection for this thesis was carried out within the framework of the third vegetation sampling campaign of the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA). In 2015, the field work was financed by the Norwegian Environment Agency (Miljødirektoratet), whereas the field work in 2001 and 2008 was financed by the GLORIA-Europe project within the 5th RTD - Framework Program of the European Union and the Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management, respectively. Moreover, with the help of their technician, Manfred Bardy-Durchhalter, I was able to access the complete temperature and vegetation dataset from 2001 and 2008. I would like to thank my supervisors Pieter De Frenne and Kris Verheyen for their excellent guidance and support during the writing process of this thesis. Not only did they provide me with some relevant comments and corrections, but they also assisted with the statistical analysis. In addition, I would like to express my gratitude to the people who assisted me during the field work, in particular Magni Olsen Kyrkjeeide, Rozália Kapás, Sigrid Lindmo and Ottar Michelsen. With their help, I acquired some valuable local plant knowledge and was able to schedule and carry out the field work within the provided time period. Furthermore, I acknowledge Ottar Michelsen for helping me to read out the temperature loggers and providing me with additional data for the malfunctioning loggers. I also thank Håkon Holien and Kristian Hassel for determining the altitudinal ranks of the lichens and bryophytes. Finally, I would also like to thank Bente Jessen Graae for arranging the accommodation and Mia Vedel and her team for keeping me alive and, above all, well-fed with the delicious vegetarian cooking during my four-week stay at the Villreinsenter in Hjerkinn, Norway. Thomas Vanneste Ghent, June 2016 I Table of Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................................... I List of abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. IV Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. V Samenvatting ......................................................................................................................................... VI Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 Literature review ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Tundra ecosystems .............................................................................................................................. 3 Climate change: history, processes, causes and effects and future projections ................................... 6 Ecological and evolutionary responses of tundra ecosystems to climate change .............................. 11 General consensus ......................................................................................................................... 11 Phenology changes ........................................................................................................................ 11 Distribution shifts .......................................................................................................................... 12 Community reorganization and ecosystem responses ................................................................... 18 Feedbacks of biodiversity changes on ecosystem processes ......................................................... 21 Other possible drivers of ecological responses in tundra ecosystems ............................................... 22 Aims .................................................................................................................................................. 24 Materials and methods ........................................................................................................................... 25 Study area .......................................................................................................................................... 25 Geography ..................................................................................................................................... 26 Geology ......................................................................................................................................... 26 Macroclimate ................................................................................................................................. 27 Ecology .......................................................................................................................................... 30 Flora .......................................................................................................................................... 30 Fauna ......................................................................................................................................... 30 Management .................................................................................................................................. 31 The GLORIA project ......................................................................................................................... 31 Study design ...................................................................................................................................... 33 Climatic data...................................................................................................................................... 37 Statistical analyses ............................................................................................................................. 37 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 41 Microclimate ..................................................................................................................................... 41 Vegetation ......................................................................................................................................... 43 Vegetation status in 2015 .............................................................................................................. 43 II Vascular plants in the quadrats and summit area sections ......................................................... 43 Lichens and bryophytes ............................................................................................................. 43 Changes over time ......................................................................................................................... 47 γ-diversity .................................................................................................................................. 47 α-diversity: vascular plants in quadrats and the summit area sections ...................................... 47 α-diversity: lichens and bryophytes ........................................................................................... 50 β-diversity: modified Gower dissimilarity indices for the quadrats .......................................... 53 β-diversity: Species composition ............................................................................................... 55 Thermophilization ..................................................................................................................... 57 Responses of individual species ................................................................................................ 60 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 62 Temporal changes in climate ............................................................................................................. 62 Vegetation analysis ............................................................................................................................ 65 Changes with elevation and aspect (2015) .................................................................................... 65 Vascular plants .......................................................................................................................... 65 Lichens and bryophytes ............................................................................................................. 67 Changes over time (2001-2015) .................................................................................................... 69 Vascular plants .......................................................................................................................... 69 Lichens and bryophytes ............................................................................................................
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