Summer 2019 www.belfercenter.org

OUR ONE EARTH

ACTING ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS PAGES 4–5

“Our real aim should be not simply to limit the amount of climate change that occurs (mitigation), but also to reduce the actual harm to society and to ecosystems from the changes in climate that can no longer be avoided (adaptation). Limiting the harm overall will require enormous efforts in both mitigation and adaptation, all around the world.”

–JOHN P. HOLDREN

PLUS: Big Tech & Democracy · Ethics in Intelligence · U.S.-Russia Blueprint From the Director

n today’s tight labor market, competition * * * Ifor talented young people is fierce. Here at One reason the Belfer Center has such strong Harvard Kennedy School, that means many academic impact is because of the excellence of Staff Spotlight: graduating students are entertaining several its quarterly journal, International Security, and Amanda Sardonis attractive job offers. No doubt they’ll make their its long-time editor, Sean Lynn-Jones. Sean new employers happy. retired this year after three decades of outstand- Amanda Sardonis loves and lives her work. More important than their performance, ing service, leading the journal to a repeated No. As Associate Director of the Environment and however, is the spirit of public purpose they 1 worldwide ranking. Sean is also an influential Natural Resources Program (ENRP), she sup- bring to their work. This is true for both writer and scholar: His 1998 article, “Why the ports the program’s research, manages student government and private-sector roles. United States Should Spread Democracy,” has engagement and fellowship programs—including Let’s not kid ourselves: governance is hard, become a classic. Given his return visits to the the full-tuition Roy Fellowship—and runs the especially in democratic nations. It’s messy, Center and continued engagement with scholars, entire selection process for the prestigious Roy inefficient, and contentious. Which is all the Sean may be failing retirement. But he has suc- Award for Environmental Partnership presented more reason for skillful, ethically-centered HKS ceeded in helping us recruit an outstanding new by Harvard Kennedy School every two years.

A big part of her job is staying on top of what’s “The need for happening in the environmental space so she can help students engage in relevant fieldwork. This MARTHA STEWART MARTHA leaders who feel awareness is also essential in managing the Roy responsibility for Award selection, a lengthy process that seeks the most effective environmental partnerships in the the public good is world. Her ENRP portfolio is full and varied, but she arguably even more is especially proud of her work with the Roy Award. important in the “We’re shining a light on good things that are Professor Tarek Masoud congratulates new U.S. citizens as he private sector.” happening around the world environmentally,” she hands them their naturalization certificates. says. These partnerships “are extremely import- ant and very hard to do, and the participants don’t graduates to enter the fray. From Capitol Hill editor, Morgan Kaplan. Morgan, a former Belfer generally get the recognition they deserve.” and other nations’ capitals to federal, state, and Center fellow, joins us from the Buffet Institute local agencies that work for citizens’ security for Global Studies at Northwestern. Inspired by the Roy Award, she wrote her Harvard and rights, ensure electoral integrity, provide * * * masters thesis on “Measuring Success in environmental protection, and collaborate with On a recent quiet Monday afternoon, the Environmental Partnerships” and leads a research international partners, graduates have numer- sounds of “America the Beautiful” filled our project on partnership effectiveness, analyzing ous ways to apply their talent and dedication on halls. A singer was performing at a citizenship data collected from the program since 2003. behalf of something larger than self. ceremony in the JFK Jr. Forum. Men and women The need for leaders who feel responsibility from over 25 countries had assembled to take Outside of work, Sardonis tries to be conscious of for the public good is arguably even more the oath of citizenship. Several HKS faculty her family’s carbon footprint. Choosing not to own important in the private sector. The challenges members, including the Belfer Center’s Meghan a car, she rides her three-person bike year-round, we face today are too daunting for any O’Sullivan and Tarek Masoud, shared remarks dropping off and picking up her six- and four-year government alone. Engineers, consultants, about ideas many of us take for granted: free- olds at school and daycare. A vegetarian, she marketers, and senior managers must all feel dom, democracy, and self-government. As new loves to cook and her kids choose what vegetables a stake in solving our common problems. citizens took their oath with great reverence, they to grow in their community garden plot. Increasingly, HKS grads will transition between personified America’s unique motto: e pluribus the public and private sectors multiple times in unum—out of many, one. The same unity of spirit In her 13 years at ENRP, she has managed a number their lifetime—bringing a mentality of service fills the HKS commencement tent. Families from of projects and interacted with hundreds of “amaz- and a set of skills with them that edify their over 100 countries salute graduates who share the ing” students and leaders. Witnessing the positive professional environments. same ambition: Ask what you can do. impact of that work, she says, is “pretty cool.”

2 Newsletter | Summer 2019 In a round-table discussion of potential legislative solutions for governing the technology issues of privacy, bias, discrimination, and access, Democracy Fund’s Paul Waters makes a point. Other participants at the table included: former FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn (center), Ambassador Philip Verveer (right), and congressional staffers. Big Tech and Democracy: Policy Approaches to Address Tech Platforms by Bogdan Belei

echnology has reached a critical juncture in TAmerican society. The unfettered optimism The 116th Congress of recent decades is now tempered by rising will face pressure to concerns over privacy and security, the impact of disinformation campaigns, and increasing shape technological calls for digital accountability. It is clear that innovation through the 116th Congress will face pressure to shape technological innovation through policies that policies that protect protect and serve the best interests of their var- and serve the best ious constituents. In March, two projects at Harvard interests of their Kennedy School—the Technology and Public TAPP’s Ash Carter and Laura Manley walk to the Big Tech work- constituents. shop at the Capitol in Washington, D.C. Purpose (TAPP) Project at the Belfer Center and the Platform Accountability Project at the existing toolbox of self-regulation, antitrust, critical role in setting this agenda by launching the Shorenstein Center for Media, Politics and regulatory solutions. hearings and engaging diverse actors. and Public Policy—hosted a workshop in the The opening panel featured experts who The discussions surfaced four key insights Capitol Visitors’ Center for congressional staff were centrally involved with some of the major on tech policy challenges facing Congress and to identify and discuss policy approaches to the reforms in telecommunications and media. They how legislators could more effectively engage dilemmas of big tech platforms. The day-long included: Toni Bush, former Senate Commerce with the dilemmas of big tech: workshop sought to create an open space for Senior Counsel; Mignon Clyburn, former FCC discussion among congressional staffers and Commissioner; Dipayan Ghosh, Pozen Fellow 1. The digital marketplace and new business experts in the field, and included chiefs of staff, at the Shorenstein Center and former Privacy models are creating gaps in governance committee counsels, and legislative directors and Public Policy Advisor at Facebook; Gene authority and coordination; from both Senate and House offices. Kimmelman, former Chief Counsel of the 2. A healthy mix between self-regulation and In his opening comments, Belfer Center Justice Department’s Antitrust Division; Hong government policy is necessary; Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash Qu, Program Director for Technology at the 3. Congressional hearings are underutilized Carter, who heads the Belfer Center’s TAPP Shorenstein Center and former User Interface on technology-relevant topics; Project, emphasized the responsibility that pol­ Designer at YouTube; and Tom Wheeler, former 4. Tech policy debates are still ‘pre-partisan.’ icymakers have in shaping emerging technology. FCC Chairman. By drawing parallels to other “disruptive tech” The panelists explored the multitude of The current tech policy environment from the past, such as nuclear technology, Carter issues at play in the big tech space, such as is nascent and presents a rare opportunity stressed the historic opportunity to shape today’s competition, content accountability, privacy to advance sustainable solutions through a technology for the human good: “Once invented, and security, accessibility, and protection of civil united, bipartisan front. it can’t be undone.” Carter said case studies from rights and liberties. They agreed that any path other revolutionary communication technol- toward sustainable policy solutions must begin See the full report at ogies—such as the postal service, telegraph, with a public debate and that Congress has a belfercenter.org/tech-democracy radio, and telephone—can provide insight into

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 3 ACTING ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS WHAT MUST WE DO NOW? JASON CHAPMAN JASON MARTHA STWEART MARTHA

John Holdren and Ireland’s Mary Robinson. Henry Lee in Beijing. Robert Stavins at COP-24 in Poland. What would be sensible targets for and What advances in the technologies What are the opportunities and key ingredients of national and global of energy supply and use are most challenges of carbon-pricing as an strategies for addressing the climate needed to cope with the climate element of U.S. climate strategy? change challenge? change challenge? Robert N. Stavins Director, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements John P. Holdren Henry Lee Co-Director, Science, Technology, and Public Director, Environment and Natural Resources Policy Program; former Assistant to President Program “There are three reasons most U.S. policy Obama for Science and Technology analysts favor carbon-pricing—carbon taxes “Energy patterns in a world constrained or carbon cap-and-trade systems. First, given “The best that can be hoped for is stabilizing by climate change will rely increasingly on that the sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) Earth’s temperature at 1.5-2.0ºC above the pre- electricity, not only to power our buildings, emissions number in the hundreds of mil- industrial level before the end of the current but also to run our cars, heat our homes, and lions, it is inconceivable that emissions could century. That must be our goal. Achieving it fuel our industrial processes. While indi- be effectively regulated through conventional will require: (1) initiating immediately, and vidual technologies, such as better storage technology or performance standards. But sustaining for decades, deep cuts in CO2 options, more efficient heat pumps, new ways decentralized price signals can affect all emissions from the world’s energy, agricultural, to make cement or steel and improved electric sources in proportion to their relative carbon and forestry enterprises, along with cuts in vehicles will all make a difference, the most intensity. Second, carbon-pricing mechanisms emissions of the other major heat-trapping imposing challenge is to integrate all of these can achieve targets at the least cost by pro- gases and black soot; and (2) launching into a more flexible electric system shaped by viding incentives for all sources to control efforts worldwide to build resilience against regulation characterized more by markets and at the same marginal abatement cost. Third, the changes in climate that can no longer pricing than by rigid constraints and outdated carbon-pricing can provide effective incentives be avoided (adaptation). Success in these command and control regimes. The former for carbon-friendly technological innovation. efforts will depend on imposing a significant will provide incentives to both energy con- But because other market failures can get in the price on carbon emissions, worldwide; on sumers and producers as well as hundreds of way of price signals in particular applications, large increases in R&D to lower the costs of inventors and innovators who will expand the economists recognize that carbon-pricing will zero-emitting technologies and adaptation energy portfolio of the future.” not be sufficient. In specific cases, appropriate measures; and substantial assistance from complementary policies will also be required.” developed countries to developing ones.”

4 Newsletter | Summer 2019 As numerous studies have made strikingly clear, climate change is increasing much more rapidly than anticipated and its negative impacts are becoming more and more visible around the world. From the escalating extremity of weather events, severe droughts and wildfires, to melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and disastrous floods, climate change is already harming humans and our ecosystems in a myriad of ways. WE ASKED SEVERAL OF OUR CLIMATE EXPERTS FOR THEIR THOUGHTS ON HOW BEST TO TACKLE OUR CLIMATE CRISIS. ALANSO NICHOLS / TUFTS / NICHOLS ALANSO

Afreen Saddiqi in Jordan. Kelly Gallagher with Al Gore at Tufts. Halla Logadóttir in Iceland. What is most needed to limit How should we think about China’s role What is most needed to address the the harm from climate change in addressing global climate change? challenges arising from climate change to developing countries? in the Arctic? Kelly Gallagher, Belfer Center Board of Directors; Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy, Afreen Sadiqqi , Visiting Scholar, Science, Fletcher School, Tufts University Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Co-Director, Arctic Technology, and Public Policy Program Initiative; former Director, Iceland School of Energy, Reykjavik University “China is intrinsically important to solving the “Developing countries need adaptation capac- climate challenge as the largest global emitter, “Tackling the many challenges arising from cli- ity to limit the harm from climate change. In but it is also symbolically important as a leader mate change in the rapidly transforming Arctic particular, their systems of food and water in the global arena. When President Trump requires creating and implementing new and should receive high priority. Agriculture is announced he intended to withdraw the United innovative science-based policies. Effective of significant socio-economic importance in States from the Paris Agreement, President Xi collaboration between countries, sectors, developing countries, and in some cases, it responded with a speech where he said, ‘All experts, disciplines and communities, with the constitutes a large fraction of national GDP parties should work together to implement the goal of conserving ecosystems while ensuring and contributes to livelihoods for millions. It Paris agreement. China will continue to take sustainable development, is a key ingredient is also the largest water-consuming sector in steps to tackle climate change and fully honor its for success here. To support that process, it’s most countries. A twin focus on adaptation obligations.’ Together with the U.S., China paved critical that we boost research and global edu- of agriculture and water management is crit- the way for the Paris Agreement by announcing cation on what a ‘climate changed’ Arctic actu- ical with an eye towards not only mitigating its targets early, inspiring many other developing ally means for people and our planet. Without risks (such as crop failures or floods) but also countries to do so as well. China also appears to such understanding, people inside and outside potentially harnessing new opportunities be on track to achieve its Paris targets early. The the Arctic are less likely to care and effectively (such as production of new types of crops or main challenge for China today is to green its push forward the policies that can help avoid multi-season production). This will require a Belt and Road Initiative so it does not become unnecessary environmental, geopolitical, and trio of use of new technologies, development of a conduit for polluting investments in other economic risks in the future.” infrastructure, and synergistic policies.” developing countries.”

See more from these and other climate experts at belfercenter.org/climate-experts

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 5 BOBBY GIULIANI BOBBY

Harvard Kennedy School organizers of the 2019 Women in Power conference celebrate the gathering along with some of the event presenters and participants. Women in Power Conference: Rise. Challenge. Thrive.

arvard Kennedy School’s student-organized Women in Power and congressional delegates as well as a former EPA administrator and HConference, co-sponsored by the Belfer Center, attracted students, an under secretary of energy, and the current spokesperson for the UN faculty, and community members who took advantage of the two-day High Commissioner for Refugees. opportunity in April to explore, discuss, and debate important issues relating to the advancement of women in leadership. Belfer Center members who took part in the conference included Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach, HKS faculty members Erica Chenoweth, The conference theme, “Women in Power: Rise. Challenge. Thrive,” Zoe Marks, and Kathy Pham, Arctic Initiative Co-Director Halla focused on uniting diverse perspectives and experiences relating to women Logadóttir, digital HKS Associate Director Vanessa Rhinesmith, and in leadership positions. Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of Oxfam Senior Fellow Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall. International and a leading women’s rights activist, launched the confer- ence by debunking myths about the global economy and discussing hidden “The Women in Power Conference, the second women’s conference at and visible barriers for women and girls that deny them opportunities. the School, brought together more than 300 attendees and 70 panelists to explore issues and challenges facing women in public policy today,” said Panels covered a range of issues from debiasing classrooms and cracking Alexandra (Alex) Schmitt, a conference co-organizer. “We’re extremely the political glass ceiling to the future of women in the Republican grateful for the Belfer Center’s ongoing support of this conference, which Party, and the role of gender in climate change. The panelists included helps make sure that we get to spend a full weekend exploring how women Kennedy School students and women in an array of power positions such can rise, challenge, and thrive at HKS and in their careers beyond.” as professors, CEOs of non-profit and for-profit organizations, mayors,

BOBBY GIULIANI BOBBY Panels covered a range of issues from debiasing classrooms and cracking the political glass ceiling to the future of women in the Republican Party and the role of

Belfer Center faculty affiliate Kathy Pham (right) and digital HKS Associate Direc- tor Vanessa Rhinesmith (second from right) pose with fellow panelists, (left to gender in climate change. right) Heather Krause, Ali Martell, and Anisha Asundi, following their discussion on “Women in Technology and Gender Data Gaps.”

6 Newsletter | Summer 2019 CRISTINE RUSSELL CRISTINE AP/ALESSANDRA TARANTINO AP/ALESSANDRA

Harvard Kennedy School student Katie Segal (left photo), playing teenage Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg (shown in photo on right), calls for a School Strike for Climate. HKS students waiting to speak (left photo): Kalia Firester (playing Dr. Peter Winsor, World Wildlife Fund) and Ankur Dhanuka (playing Anders Oskal, Association of World Reindeer Herders). “The Big Melt” on Primetime Arctic Role-Play Exercise Showcases Debate

n a role-play exercise that was the capstone HKS student Laura Merryfield, as CNN questions were directed at President Trump, Ifor a Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) spring host Anderson Cooper, opened the show with which perfectly illustrated his real-life ability course, “Controversies in Climate, Energy, and the a warning: “Temperatures are rising twice as to dominate any conversation and the news Media: Improving Public Communication,” stu- fast in the Arctic, and glacial melting is already media’s inability to sufficiently challenge his dents played the roles of world leaders and activists causing drastic changes to the region.” The false narrative about the Arctic.” speaking on a fictitious cable television program broadcast featured a series of imitation press titled, “The Big Melt: The Future of the Arctic.” conferences from Reykjavík, Iceland in which Carrying a “School Strike for Climate” students gave two-minute opening remarks sign (in Swedish), Harvard Kennedy School before taking tough questions from reporters,

(HKS) student Katie Segal—playing the role played by their classmates. RUSSELL CRISTINE of 16-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta “I chose the Arctic as our student role-play Thunberg—gave a passionate plea for interna- topic to dramatize challenges in communicating tional action to help save the Arctic: “I’m just the urgency of the climate change crisis to the one voice but I represent the voice of the youth global public,” said HKS Adjunct Lecturer and who cannot speak.” The fictitious program was Environment and Natural Resources Program modeled after a CNNAnderson Cooper 360° (ENRP) Senior Fellow Cristine Russell. A sci- Kennedy School student Laura Merryfield, playing the role of CNN anchor Anderson Cooper, speaks “to cam- primetime show. ence journalist, Russell has joined ENRP staff era” during a simulated Anderson Cooper 360 broadcast and HKS students at the Arctic Circle on the future of the Arctic. “The Arctic climate story needs Assembly meetings in Reykjavík since 2015. “The Arctic climate story needs to In other segments of the “CNN” class broad- to be better told by all parties, be better told by all parties, from politi- cast, Chinese and Russian representatives promoted from politicians to the press.” cians to the press,” she said. new commercial shipping routes through Arctic In the first faux press conference, waters. Indigenous leaders called for a greater voice –Cristine Russell following a hypothetical Arctic Summit, in the future of their native lands. American climate Iceland’s President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson scientist Katharine Hayhoe (played by Thomas “The Arctic exercise improved my (played by HKS student Nikhil Kumar) diplo- Han, Harvard College) said “the most dangerous understanding of the many stakeholders who matically welcomed American President Donald myth about climate change is that it doesn’t affect influence the future of the Arctic and espe- Trump (played by Amy Chyao, Harvard Law you personally….We need to engage people in their cially helped me learn how to communicate School). Trump promptly struck a divisive note: “I hearts” and convince them Arctic climate change my message in a short amount of time,” said don’t really care about the Arctic National Wildlife impacts people as well as polar bears. Segal, an MPP student and research assistant Refuge if I’m being honest,” pushing instead for oil During the exercise, a live in-class blog of for the Arctic Initiative. In the tightly scripted drilling off the pristine Alaskan coast. the broadcast scrolled on a classroom screen, 75-minute cable television simulation, 20 stu- The Arctic simulation, noted Kumar, written by auditor Jason Dearen, an MIT dents played international leaders in govern- showed students how “working with a U.S. Knight Science Journalism Fellow and former ment, business, environment, climate science, president uninterested in compromise or facts AP correspondent. Several students voiced a Indigenous rights, and journalism. prevented us from making a dent in the United familiar refrain: “What happens in the Arctic States’ position. Moreover, all of the journalists’ doesn’t stay in the Arctic.”

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 7 FROM INTELLIGENCE AND ETHICS... Ethical and Moral Issues in the Intelligence Community

In May, a number of former intelligence officers, policymakers, cyber experts, and top journalists took part in a Belfer Center Intelligence Project conference titled “The Ethics & Morality of Intelligence.”

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Director of the Intelligence Project and former Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at DOE, noted that as the world grows more complex, leaders and policymakers increasingly rely on intelligence to advance and defend their national interests. But this trend comes at a cost. There is a heightened risk of political figures violating long-standing norms of behavior that have historically constrained intelligence activity. This can take a number of forms, from manipulating elections and silencing dissent abroad to stoking low-intensity conflict or undermining the principle of objectivity.

Valerie Plame, a former covert operations officer and current candidate for U.S. Congress, recalls the impact of her Speakers at “The Ethics & Morality of Intelligence” cover being blown in political retaliation. Former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers took part in the discussion. conference identified and discussed key moral and ethical questions around the nature of current the intelligence business was a binary question intelligence practices and future trends. “I wish the intelligence every time....Unfortunately, it is almost never In a Harvard Gazette article about the conference, a binary decision when you make it,” he said. Christina Pazzanese wrote the following (excerpt): business was a binary The keys to an ethical intelligence service question every time.... are making sure officers are disciplined and In one session, project director Rolf well-trained in ethics, and ensuring that oper- Mowatt-Larssen, a former career CIA officer, Unfortunately, it is ations are closely guided by legal counsel and asked panelists how politics intersects with intel- almost never a binary services are subject to regular, rigorous congres- ligence. The group debated whether any intelli- decision [at the time].” sional oversight, Rogers said. gence work is ever free from politics, given that David Sanger, a veteran national security agencies work for a head of state who decides –Mike Rogers correspondent for The New York Times and a what priorities are pursued and what information Belfer Center fellow and lecturer, said disclosing will be shared with the public, and when. “Sometimes you’re going to deal with some or publishing classified information is part of For Valerie Plame, the politicization of very unseemly people in the intelligence busi- the job for reporters on his beat, but added that intelligence was something “I experienced quite ness”—many of whom have done “some horrific he uses great care, and the information is often personally.” Plame, a former covert operations things,” said Mike Rogers, a former Republican the last piece of a puzzle that was started using officer working in nuclear counterproliferation, Congressman from Michigan who chaired the open-source material and reporting. recounted how politics derailed her career at the House Intelligence Committee from 2011 to CIA during the run-up to the Iraq War. Her iden- 2015 and served as an FBI special agent. tity was infamously made public in 2003 by the For intelligence officers to gather informa- For a full list of conference speakers, see belfercenter.org/IntelEthics conservative columnist Robert Novak, with help tion about a group’s intentions or capabilities, from senior White House officials, in retaliation for they often have to infiltrate and gain credibility For the complete Harvard Gazette article, see her then-husband Ambassador Joe Wilson’s public with that group, which likely means engaging in “Former FBI, CIA officers, lawmakers, analysts discuss ethical and moral issues,” criticism of the Bush administration’s push for war. activities “that we would all find morally objec- May 10, 2019. Her outing, Plame said, began a bewilder- tionable,” said Rogers. ing time of fear for the safety of her family and In that difficult environment, there are her source network and uncertainty fighting times when practitioners have to make close the administration in court and in the media. calls, and they don’t always get it right. “I wish

8 Newsletter | Summer 2019 TO ELECTIONS AND SECURITY

More than 120 Idaho election officials gathered in March for their first statewide training in how to prevent and deal with cyber and information attacks. The Secretary of State’s Tabletop Exercise (TTX) was assisted by the Defending Digital Democracy team (standing by wall).

D3P Helps States Increase Additional Efforts to Combat Cyber and Security for 2020 Elections Disinformation Attacks s threats to U.S. elections multiply, the Belfer the most positive developments have come from in the U.S. and Abroad ACenter’s Defending Digital Democracy federal engagement with private sector partners. Project (D3P) continues to help election officials In April, D3P assisted the Virginia Earlier this year, the Defending Digital Democracy fight back. Coordinated by D3P’sMari Dugas, Department of Elections in conducting its Project published a report that describes the the Defending Digital Democracy team of staff first-ever statewide election security tabletop propaganda and information operation threats and students has worked during the year with exercise. D3P members Reed Southard and against U.S. democracy and offers 10 recommen- state and local election officials in their own Matthew Podolin served as moderators for the dations that the public and private sector in the states across the country to conduct election exercise, which pitted nearly 100 local election United States can take now to combat informa- security tabletop exercises and has also expanded officials against a fictional but plausible scenario tion operations. engagement with cybersecurity professionals. featuring a range of cyber and physical threats In March, D3P sent a team of students to election infrastructure. The National Counter-Information Operations and staff to present at the RSA Conference. Strategy report is the work of Gabriel Cederberg, Selected from thousands of applicants to make “The Belfer Center Jordan D’Amato, Corinna Fehst, Simon Jones, presentations at the conference, the team Kunal Kothari, Aleksandra Milcheva, and Irene conducted a training simulation or tabletop greatly enhanced our Solaiman. It can be accessed at belfercenter.org/ exercise (TTX) to help participants learn more ability to put on an CounterInfoOps. about how officials across the U.S. are securing elections. Along with 45,000 other attendees exceptional event.” in San Francisco’s Moscone Center, the D3P –Chad Houck, Deputy Secretary of State, Idaho team also previewed some of the cybersecurity community’s most cutting-edge research. The Virginia training followed a similar “Ultimately, all elections are local,” said session in Idaho where team members Matt D3P’s student team leader Jordan D’Amato. McCalpin and Gabe Cederberg helped run “There’s an alignment between the skillsets of Idaho’s first statewide election tabletop exercise cybersecurity professionals and the need to sponsored by the Office of the Idaho Secretary of In addition to D3P playbooks for state and local secure elections. So, there are very real and con- State. More than 120 election officials participated election officials and campaign officials in the crete ways that these folks can make a difference in the exercise where they were confronted with United States, it has produced—along with the in their own communities.” worst-case scenarios intended to prepare them for National Democratic Institute and International The team’s emphasis on cross-sector potential threats to the 2020 election. Republican Institute—campaign playbooks collaboration was echoed by FBI Director “The Belfer Center greatly enhanced our adapted for use in English-speaking European Christopher Wray. In his conference keynote, ability to put on an exceptional event,” said countries and translated for campaigns in a Wray explained that while adversaries continue Chad Houck, Idaho’s Deputy Secretary of State. number of other countries worried about cyber to surveil election infrastructure and conduct “We couldn’t have pulled it off without their and information attacks on their campaigns. malign foreign influence operations, some of support and the resources they provided.”

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 9 Q&A: Karen Elliott House Belfer Center Senior Fellow Karen Elliott House is a longtime reporter and former publisher of The Wall Street Journal. She has covered Saudi Arabia for a number of years and written extensively on the country. Her most recent Belfer Center report is Profile of a Prince: Promise and Peril in Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030.

What inspired you to become a gathering. Secondly, tradi- Q journalist? tional journalistic standards are eroding as reporters In my small high school class (17) in Matador, increasingly become part Texas, I was class reporter because I could spell. of the story, not dispassion-

Those stories appeared in the town weekly,The ate observers of what they HOUSE KAREN ELLIOTT COURTESY Matador Tribune, where I got an afterschool see and hear. The Wall Street job doing everything from editing stories to Journal happily remains a setting type. The publisher, Douglas Meador, publication that clearly sep- believed the role of a newspaper was essential arates news and opinion both to our community cohesion. He inspired me to in print and online. believe that the role of a reporter is essential to communities larger than Matador because we What are the most inform and engage others in public affairs—in Q striking changes my case international affairs. you have witnessed in Saudi Arabia What lessons have you learned about since your first visit? Q how to build trust with sources and subjects? I have visited Saudi for more than 40 years as a journalist It is simple: always be totally direct and straight, and more recently an author. and never have any agenda beyond soliciting Over those years there have information from the source on behalf of been periods of deep con- readers/listeners/viewers. servatism and now relative Karen Elliott House poses with a falcon and a Saudi liberalization. But the single boy in Al-`Ula, Saudi Arabia, January 2019. most striking change has “Always be totally been the role of women who direct and straight, today are increasingly free—and encouraged What is your favorite hobby? by government—to pursue careers (not just Q and never have any as teachers of girls) drive cars, attend sporting events and concerts, mix publicly with unrelated My favorite hobby is history and my favorite agenda beyond men, and generally lead far freer lives than at pastime is reading books, particularly on Islam soliciting information any time in the past 40 years. Yes, there are still and on Arab history. restrictions on Saudi women but fewer than in from the source on the past, and as the social norm changes ever What do you value most about your behalf of readers/ more, Saudis will feel comfortable adopting the Q affiliation with the Belfer Center? new freedoms. listeners/viewers.” Here in the United States, it is the opportunity What do you wish more Westerners to interact with its serious scholars and practi- Q understood about Saudi? tioners. Abroad, I am grateful for the prestige How worried are you about the sus- that the Belfer Center and Harvard convey to Q tainability of independent journalism? I want them to understand Saudis are not a Saudis and others around the world with whom caricature. We Texans often are stereotyped as I interact. I worry for two reasons. First traditional news- cowboys and drawling hicks. Similarly, Saudi papers are shrinking and dying, and other forms men are stereotyped as oppressors or worse yet, Read Karen Elliott House’s latest report at of media like cable and the Internet are much terrorists, and women as victims. Obviously belfercenter.org/profile-prince more focused on opinion than on factual news Saudi, like Texas, defies stereotypes.

10 Newsletter | Summer 2019 Spotlight: Rolf Mowatt-Larssen Rolf Mowatt-Larssen is departing as Director of the Belfer Center’s Intelligence Project. In that capacity, he has run the Recanati-Kaplan Foundation Fellowship, which educates rising thought leaders in national and international intelligence. He previously served for a quarter century in intelligence, both in the CIA, where he became station chief in Moscow, and the U.S. Department of Energy, where he was Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence. After 9/11, he led Washington’s efforts to determine whether al Qaeda had WMD capabilities and to prevent a nuclear terrorist attack. by Josh Burek

n the popular imagination, joining the CIA From conferences on drones and ethics matters. In recent years, I’ve been examining Ibegins with a clandestine recruitment pro- to conversations with senior officers, the my faith through theology and the wisdom of cess. For Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, it started with Intelligence Project hosts dozens of events each the mystics. I have learned that the mystics of an advertisement in The Washington Post. After year that demystify this arena. One thing the the great faiths have much in common with graduating from West Point, he was serving in Project emphatically does not do is serve as a scientific discovery, and more broadly, in the the Army when he spotted the ad while home on conduit for espionage on campus. “It would be unrelenting search for truth that scientists and break. “I applied to the CIA out of curiosity,” he unacceptable for any intelligence officer to spy mystics share.” recalls. “My application process was cryptic and on students or undertake intelligence activity As he prepares for his next professional long, which only whetted my appetite to see it on campus,” Mowatt-Larssen confirms. “Like chapter—he will continue to research and through. I wasn’t sure I wanted to end my Army all students, intelligence-affiliated students are write as a Belfer Center Senior Fellow— career until I got the job offer from CIA. The at Harvard strictly to study and learn.” Mowatt-Larssen reflects on the career advice excitement I felt was not very thoughtful, but it Mowatt-Larssen’s interests range well that served him well: “Surround yourself with clinched my decision to become an intelligence beyond intelligence. Using the handle people smarter than yourself,” he says. “Take a officer. I wanted to go to Moscow and battle “@AmericanMystic,” he tweets frequently on seat somewhere where you learn something new the KGB. I was lucky enough to get to do that." faith, science, and climate change. “My first and your views are challenged every day. Break intellectual love was philosophy and science,” he bread with people of integrity, people whose says. “I never abandoned my love affair, despite purpose in life is to make the world a better the distractions imposed by more practical place. That personifies Harvard.” “Take a seat somewhere where you learn something new and your views are EMBASSY/MOSCOW U.S. challenged every day.”

Today, he feels fortunate to guide a growing class of Recanati-Kaplan Fellows. These fellows, nominated by their countries’ intelligence ser- vices and approved by the Belfer Center, hail from the United States, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. They have spent a year of intensive study at Harvard Kennedy School where they conducted independent research projects. “Being a mentor to students and staff concerning their career interests in serving intelligence, defense, and diplomacy has been the highlight of my time at the Belfer Center,” says Mowatt-Larssen. “I feel like a proud father every time a student opts to enter into public ser- vice, whether that be in national security fields, non-governmental organizations, or finding other ways to serve a higher interest than self. Never has there been a greater need for selfless 1994—Moscow’s Spaso House: Rolf Mowatt-Larssen (back center), then a declared CIA Representative to Russian In- telligence Services in Moscow, stands behind Yevgeniy Primakov, Director of the Russian External Intelligence Services service and activism in the world.” (SVRR), with President Bill Clinton and a senior Russian Orthodox Church official at the U.S. Ambassador’s residence.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 11 Belfer Center in Action MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Combating Extremism: Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach (right) with Farah Controlling Emerging Tech: Eric Lander, founding Director of the MIT/Harvard Pandith, Future of Diplomacy Project Senior Fellow, during a JFK Jr. Forum event Broad Institute, makes a point during a Faculty Working Group session hosted by titled “How We Win: Beating Extremism Abroad and in the U.S.” Juliette Kayyem Center Director Ash Carter and Engineering / Applied Sciences Dean Frank Doyle. moderated the event that included the Anti-Defamation League’s George Selim. Participants discussed effective international norms for emerging technology.

Climate and Health: Former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, currently Director Commanding First: General (ret.) and Center Senior Fellow Lori Robinson, of C-Change at the Harvard School of Public Health, speaks about impacts of the first woman to command the U.S. Northern Command and NORAD, listens climate change on public health at a Directors’ Lunch. Juliette Kayyem, Director during the Center’s International Council meeting to former Senator Sam Nunn, of the Center’s Homeland Security Project, also took part in the discussion. co-founder of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program.

In the Moment: Belfer Center Executive Director Aditi Kumar shares a light mo- Knowledge at Stake: Yan Xuelong, Distinguished Professor and Dean of the ment with former Ambassadors Nicholas Burns and Samantha Power during a Institute of International Relations at China’s Tsinghua University, talks with panel discussion on “Reinvigorating Diplomacy,” moderated by Kumar at May’s students following a seminar in which he discussed “U.S.-China Competition in annual meeting of the Center’s International Council. the Age of the Knowledge Economy” with HKS Professor Graham Allison.

12 Newsletter | Summer 2019 MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Powerful and Positive: Nobel Laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former President of Li- Talking Tech: Kara Swisher (right), Editor-at-Large of Recode and host of the beria and HKS alumna, discusses “Women’s Solidarity and Africa’s Future” at an event “Recode Decode” podcast, discusses surveillance, AI ethics, and how to regulate moderated by Professor Zoe Marks. The first democratically-elected female head of technology with Belfer Center Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash state in Africa, she led the country through reconciliation, the Ebola crisis, and more. Carter during a JFK Jr. Forum event recorded for a special podcast.

Reporter’s Role: Brooke Baldwin (right), host of CNN’s Newsroom, talks about Current and Future Leaders: Belfer Center Senior Fellow and former National Security her career during a Future of Foreign Affairs is Female seminar. Baldwin has been Adviser Susan Rice (front, center) stands with Thomas R. Pickering and Charles B. recognized for the depth of her reporting and coverage. Also pictured is Tara Rangel Foreign Affairs Fellows from Harvard Kennedy School and other area universities Tyrell, Project Coordinator for the Homeland Security Project. following a seminar Rice led on government careers.

Policy and Purpose: Former U.S. Senator Robert (Bob) Corker, who represented Inspiring Leadership: Lindiwe Mazibuko, the first black woman in South African Tennessee 2007-2019, speaks during a Belfer Center Board Lunch titled “Re- history to be elected Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, discusses “‘We flections on a Life of Leadership,” hosted by Center Director Ash Carter (right). Don’t Need Another Hero’: The Future of Public Leadership in Africa.” Mazibuko Corker chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2015 to 2019. is a Fisher Family Fellow for 2019 with the Future of Diplomacy Project.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 13 New at the Belfer Center Center Expands Focus on Economic Diplomacy and Its Global Impacts

Robert Belfer (middle right) joins Nicholas Burns (seated to his right) and Aditi Kumar (front left) in a meeting to discuss the strategic focus of the Economic Diplomacy Initiative.

eventy-two years ago the Marshall Plan, Center Executive Director Aditi Kumar, kicked of leaders, the initiative is driven by Harvard Swidely hailed as a masterpiece of American off this semester with a conversation with Kai-Fu Kennedy School students with an interest in post-war statecraft, dispatched aid worth nearly Lee, a leading technologist and investor in Chinese exploring the intersection of economic and 5 percent of U.S. GDP to reinvigorate Western high-tech companies. international affairs. In addition to faculty- Europe’s war-ravaged economy and fend off supervised research, students are planning a Soviet encroachment. policy conference and developing an immersive “It is logical,” Secretary of State George How can and should training program on economic diplomacy, both Marshall declared in a famous 1947 commence- policymakers deploy to be rolled out this fall. ment speech at Harvard laying out the plan’s vision, that America “assist in the return of economic tools to normal economic health in the world, without promote geopolitical which there can be no political stability and no interests? assured peace.” On this foundation of economic health, the Western powers built the political, military, and economic alliances that won the The Initiative aims to examine three Cold War. facets of economic statecraft. First, as Today, nations are relying on various forms economic power and responsibility shift of economic statecraft to achieve geopolitical to a broader group of states, how will objectives—from China’s expansive overseas policymakers set a clear vision for the infrastructure investment through the Belt and international economic order to facilitate Road Initiative, to American sanctions policy in multinational commerce? Second, how Iran, to the global race for dominance in critical can and should policymakers deploy technology sectors. This spring, the Belfer Center, economic tools—trade, investment, in partnership with the Mossavar-Rahmani sanctions, aid, and other policies—to Center for Business and Government, launched promote geopolitical interests? Third, an initiative to explore these and other tools of in an era of unprecedented global com- economic statecraft, their impact on international petition, how can policymakers support relations, and implications for global leaders. domestic competitiveness and innova- The Economic Diplomacy Initiative, advised tion in critical sectors? Kai-Fu Lee, founding President of Google China and Chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures, talks with stu- by Faculty Co-Chairs Professor Nicholas Burns In the spirit of the Center’s dents and faculty about his new book, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, at a Center and Professor Lawrence H. Summers and led by mission to prepare future generations seminar organized by the Economic Diplomacy Initiative.

14 Newsletter | Summer 2019 International Council Members Join in Lively Discussions of Critical Global Issues

ach spring, members of the Belfer Center’s EInternational Council—an advisory board—convene for a day of off-the-record brief- ings and conversations on pressing policy chal- lenges. At this year’s meeting, Council members enjoyed break-out sessions with Center experts, as well as opportunities to engage with current Harvard Kennedy School students. In a spirited discussion on “Right-Sizing America’s Role in a Dangerous World,” Harvard Kennedy School Professor Stephen Walt and Belfer Center Senior Fellow Paula Dobriansky shared sometimes divergent views of what America’s role is and should be. And they kept the Council members National Intelligence Director Dan Coats (right) speaks at the opening session of the Belfer Center’s annual Inter- engaged with their good-natured repartee and national Council meeting. Center Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter introduced Coats. responses to the members’ thought-provoking questions and comments. The Walt-Dobriansky session was one of nearly a dozen interactive panel discussions with Center scholars and experts during the two-day gathering of the Council in early May. Other equally dynamic sessions elicited debate and discussion on diplomacy, Mohammed bin Salman, grand strategy in Asia, cyber & AI, dilemmas of energy abundance, and the 2020 field of presidential candidates. National Intelligence Director Dan Coats joined Center Director Ash Carter in opening the annual meeting with a conversation on U.S. intelligence and security.

Belfer Center International Council members Laurence Belfer (left) and Robert Belfer, listen to a panel discussion with Douglas Dillon Professor of Government Graham Allison, and Fran Townsend.

Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International AffairsStephen Walt comments on “Right-Sizing America’s Role in a Dangerous World” in a Karen Harris chats with International Council member Kay Kapoor during a break discussion with Senior Fellow and former Ambassador Paula Dobriansky. between sessions at the International Council meeting.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 15 Global Relations Scholars Examine Current Choices and Challenges Through the Lens of History by Justin Winokur

n early May, 70 scholars and practitioners Igathered for the Applied History Network Meeting at Harvard Kennedy School, hosted by the Belfer Center’s Applied History Project, Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and the Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation. The meeting brought together leading his- torians, political scientists, economists, and policymakers from more than 10 major insti- tutions across the U.S. and Europe to examine key issues in international affairs through the lens of Applied History: the explicit attempt Kori Schake (left), Deputy Director-General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, comments to illuminate current choices and challenges during a discussion on how learning from World War I can help prevent World War III. by analyzing the historical record, particularly precedents and analogues. stability, and methods for digitizing and “The dominant mental The Network Meeting highlighted applied analyzing millions of historical documents. history’s usefulness for grappling with difficult The meeting also showcased the field’s methodology of problems across multiple regions and subjects. bright future: of the 30 speakers, 13 were Thirty panelists and chairs presented at seven emerging scholars representing a talented new real policymakers is sessions, covering China, Russia, the Middle generation of applied historians. historical reasoning.” East, economics, World War I, decision- More than simply demonstrating the prac- –Ash Carter making, and grand strategy. Discussion tice of applying history to current choices and spanned such topics as the history of election challenges, participants also explored action- Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash meddling, patterns in return on capital since able ways to improve the use of history in gov- Carter led a brainstorming session on strate- the 14th century, trends in Chinese regime ernment—and avoid its abuse. Belfer Center gies for institutionalizing historical learning, moderated by Harvard Kennedy School’s Douglas Dillon Professor of Government and Walton to Edit History of Espionage and Intelligence Applied History Project Co-Director Graham Allison. Participants considered various types Calder Walton, Ernest May Fellow in History of advisory committees, checklists, and brief- and Policy with the Belfer Center’s International ing papers that could help decision-makers Security Program and Assistant Director of learn from history efficiently and effectively. the Applied History Project, has been named Former World Bank president Robert Zoellick general editor of The Cambridge History of furthered this conversation as chair of the Espionage and Intelligence, to be published by panel on Applied History in Government. Cambridge University Press in 2022. A milestone for applied history, the Network Meeting demonstrated the power The three-volume work will document for the of harnessing the historical record to under- first time the extensive record of how under- tapestry of history” and answer the question, stand current issues, as well as the appetite of cover information-gathering has been used and “What difference can we say intelligence has scholars and practitioners alike for a deeper misused in conflicts from the ancient world made to statecraft and warfare?” connection between history and policy. through the cyberwarfare of the present. As Carter put it: “The dominant mental He hopes the work will help make HKS into a methodology of real policymakers is historical In an interview with the Harvard Gazette earlier world-leading center for the study of intelligence reasoning.” this year, Walton said the aim of the completed history and help us understand—through the lens project is to “look at this whole enormous of history—what’s going on today. For more on the Applied History Project, visit belfercenter.org/appliedhistory

16 Newsletter | Summer 2019 KRISTINN INGVARSSON KRISTINN

The Elbe Group of U.S. and Russian former military and intelligence officers gather in Iceland in March for their annual meeting. Here, they are meeting with their Icelandic hosts at Höfði, the Reykjavik house where President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev held talks in 1986, resulting in the INF Treaty. Elbe Group Provides Blueprint for Improved U.S.-Russia Relations

uring their tenth annual meeting in Strategic stability—Issue instructions to resume joint discussions and cooperation on combat- DReykjavík in March, the U.S.-Russian Elbe contacts and interaction between the national ing cyber criminals and use of the Internet by Group of retired senior military and intelligence security and military establishments. Islamic extremists. officials discussed a range of issues and agreed on specific recommendations to help improve Stability in the Baltic and Black Sea region— Countering terrorism in Syria, Near and Middle U.S.-Russian bilateral relations. The group, Significantly reduce the activity of operational East—Create a broad international antiterrorist which maintains one of the few channels of and combat training of the armed forces of coalition in the Middle East region. Deconflict communications currently open between the NATO and Russia near the border between operations against ISIS in Syria as a basis for two countries, issued a joint statement that Russia and the NATO countries. Resume the broader efforts to combat terrorism. To prevent recommends specific actions by their respective practice of the parties to invite military observ- the revival of ISIS, the military-to-military and governments that will increase dialogue across ers to maneuvers and exercises of the armed special services’ cooperation between the two the spectrum of national security establishments, forces of NATO and Russia. countries should be resumed. including military, intelligence, diplomatic, and other relevant organizations. “The U.S. and On the Arctic—Resume the practice of working The Group agreed that as the two most meetings between the Chief of the General Staff powerful nuclear states, the U.S. and Russia Russia bear a special of the Russian Armed Forces and the Chairman of bear a special responsibility to negotiate and the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Armed Forces abide by agreements that ensure strategic sta- responsibility to to discuss cooperation in the Arctic zone. bility. Both sides expressed concern that nuclear negotiate and abide by weapons treaties are being ignored, eliminated, The Elbe Group members said in their or are at risk of expiring. agreements that ensure statement that they are convinced that the search Changes in the existing system of strategic strategic stability.” for mutual interests and an understanding of stability have accelerated, they agreed, further intentions and actions of the two countries undermining a mutual sense of security. In addi- should be key components in contemporary tion, regional confrontation has increased, use INF Treaty—Preserve the fundamental provisions relations between Russia and the United States. of military forces has grown, nuclear capabilities of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty With that in mind, the Elbe Group intends “to are being modernized, and the development of (INF) for the future. promote in myriad ways the expansion of the military and dual use non-nuclear technologies dialogue between the various structures of civil is expanding. START 3—Immediately start negotiations on the society, academic and business circles, the expert The Elbe Group members agreed to urge extension of the Russian-American START-3 treaty. community, and various power structures, their respective governments to take a number including the expansion of dialogue in inter- of specific actions. Following are a few of their Cyber—Mutually agree to cease hostile use of the Congressional/Parliamentary relations.” joint recommendations. Internet in the social and political spheres; begin

For the full statement from the Elbe Group, visit belfercenter.org/ElbeStatement

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 17 MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Eric Rosenbach (left), Belfer Center Co-Director, moderates a JFK Jr. Forum event with former ROK Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan, former U.S. Ambassador to ROK Kathleen Stephens, and former U.S. Forces Korea Commander General Vincent Brooks. First Summit Grapples with Changes in Korean Security Landscape by Dong-hyeon Kim

he Belfer Center’s Korea Project convened center of the international stage, you have put at Tthe inaugural Harvard Korean Security risk everything you have created.” When asked “Chairman Kim is Summit at Harvard Kennedy School in early her thoughts on the Hanoi Summit, Ambassador breaking with his father’s April. The Summit featured a prominent gather- Stephens said, “Chairman Kim probably went ing of Korean security scholars and practitioners into the summit a little over-confident. It was a model, and following and increased attention to the field of Korean big deal for him to be the first DPRK leader to security studies within the Harvard commu- meet a sitting American president.” another model… nity. Built on the vision of the late Ambassador The full-day conference kicked off with which has far-reaching Stephen Bosworth, who first launched Korean the “ROK Perspective on U.S.-North Korea security initiatives at the Belfer Center, the event Relations.” In his remarks, Foreign Minister implications for North reflected the two traditions that drive the Belfer Yoon argued that U.S. pressure alone would be Korea and the region.” Center’s work: bringing together leading scholars insufficient to dismantle the DPRK’s nuclear and senior practitioners to jointly diagnose policy program and underscored the importance of – John Delury puzzles; and mentoring the next generation of improving the political relationship with scholars and practitioners. North Korea with concrete actions like The Summit, organized by Korea Project establishing a liaison office or declaring the Director John Park and his team and supported end of the Korean War. by the Korea Foundation, took place during a Additional panels focused on questions critical inflection point in U.S.-North Korea about the implications of security changes relations. In the aftermath of President Trump on the Korean Peninsula for the core coun- and Chairman Kim’s failed summit in Hanoi, tries. In a panel led by Ambassador Park the panelists grappled with a changed security In-kook, Patricia Kim, senior policy expert

landscape on the Korean Peninsula and debated with the U.S. Institute of Peace, observed USIP Senior Policy Expert Patricia Kim discusses China’s role with CFR Senior Fellow for Korean Studies Scott Snyder. the way ahead. The Summit opened with a JFK Jr. that Beijing’s primary national interests Forum event focused on the key question, “What are to: preserve the Chinese Communist is the Path Forward in Negotiating with a Nuclear Party’s monopoly over power at home; North Korea?” Belfer Center Co-Director Eric continue economic growth; and expand Rosenbach moderated the event with three global influence, becoming a world-class panelists: former ROK Foreign Minister Yoon power by 2049. Professor John Delury of Young-kwan, former U.S. Ambassador to ROK Seoul’s Yonsei University Graduate School Kathleen Stephens, and former U.S. Forces of International Studies said Chairman Kim Korea Commander General Vincent Brooks. is breaking with his father’s model, and fol- Offering advice directly to Chairman Kim, lowing another model—the developmental Korea Project Director John Park shares insights along with Prof. General Brooks said, “In pursuing nuclear weap- dictator—which has far-reaching implica- Kyung-Ae Park (right) of the University of British Columbia and Prof. Kim Sung-han (left) of Korea University. ons and moving Korean Peninsula issues to the tions for North Korea and the region.

18 Newsletter | Summer 2019 MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

General Hao Yeli (second from left) and colleagues from the China working group discuss responses during the fictitious cyber scenario of a third party attack on critical infrastructure. U.S.-China Cybersecurity Group Explores Mutual Interests, Goals by Julia Voo

n April, the China Institute for International IStrategic Studies (CIISS) joined the Belfer

Center’s Cyber Project in hosting their second STEWART MARTHA working group meeting, a Track II dialogue to facilitate discussions between the U.S. and China on the risks of cyber conflict. The meet- ing, which included representatives from both countries’ tech sectors, explored existing and new tools for mitigating these risks and looking into possible areas for collaboration. “The U.S. and China have a tremendous amount of power in cyber, and without appro- Julia Voo (right), Research Director with the China Cyber Policy Initiative, talks priate dialogue there is a heightened chance for with Gao Yang from the China Institute for International Strategic Studies. inadvertent conflict,” said Belfer Center Director Ash Carter. to tackle one of the most difficult international cyber scenario to discuss what their respective gov- Eric Rosenbach, Co-Director of the Belfer issues today.” ernments and companies would do in the face of a Center, said, “We need to stop talking past each The working group in Cambridge brought third party cyber attack on critical infrastructure. other, have frank and constructive conversations, together 20 former government and military offi- The working group also discussed AI, IP theft, and start working on mutual interests. We’re cials and tech, business, and academic profession- supply chain security and Huawei, arms control uniquely placed at the Belfer Center to convene als to discuss current issues in the bilateral cyber frameworks, and controlling the spread of malware a diverse group of stakeholders on both sides relationship. Both sides worked through a fictitious over the dark web. The next working group will take place in August in Shanghai, followed by a November working group in Cambridge. “We need to stop talking Ahead of the August meeting, the team, led by the project’s Research Director Julia Voo,

MARTHA STEWART MARTHA past each other, have will begin designing a joint framework for sta- frank and constructive bility between the U.S. and China in cyberspace, looking specifically at controlling the spread conversations, and of malware as an area of shared concern and start working on mutual possible collaboration. This Track II dialogue was supported by a interests.” Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach with Chinese People’s grant from the Harvard Global Institute (HGI) Liberation Army General (ret.) Hao Yeli, Senior Advisor to the – Eric Rosenbach and the Harvard President’s Office. China Institute for International Strategic Studies.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 19 Featured Fellows and Students

Project on Managing the Atom / International Security Program International Security Program Katlyn Turner Anina Schwarzenbach Spotlighting Nuclear Waste and Linking Discrimination, State Emerging Technologies Institutions & Violent Extremism

by Hannah Ebanks by Christian Gibbons

s a millennial, Katlyn Turner grew up hearing about big issues hat causes individuals to become radicalized, and to perpetrate Alike the conflict in Iraq, universal healthcare, and climate change. Wacts of violence against other people and countries? In the con- She had a desire to solve an issue with a similar magnitude, and in text of the Easter attacks in Sri Lanka and other recent acts of violent college a professor introduced her to nuclear energy. Now, Turner extremism, understanding the causes of this phenomenon may be key is studying nuclear waste and emerging technologies in the nuclear to understanding how to counter it. energy cycle as a joint research fellow with the Belfer Center’s Project Anina Schwarzenbach is a postdoctoral “Experiences of on Managing the Atom and International Security Program. fellow studying just that at Harvard Kennedy A common misconception about nuclear energy is that it’s “clean,” School’s Belfer Center. Her research with the discrimination, since it does not produce a lot of carbon dioxide, Turner said, but all International Security Program focuses on the if recurrent, alternative energy sources have pros and cons and an environmental effectiveness of different anti-extremism strate- might affect the impact. “Within the policy community there’s the misconception that gies, as well as how perceptions of the legitimacy of the waste issue isn’t important; that the important issues are only pro- state institutions can help or hinder those efforts. levels of political liferation or nuclear security or nuclear accidents,” Turner said. “But Born and educated in Switzerland, she pre- violence.” actually, the issue of waste, if it’s not handled, is a security issue.” viously worked for the government in Bern. She Turner compared the lack of public then went on to pursue her PhD at the Max Planck Institute for Foreign care surrounding nuclear waste to cli- “Whenever I’m Criminal Law in Germany. Eventually, she says, she would like to work in mate change, since it is modeled and leg- trying to explain an academia—which is why she decided to continue her research at Harvard. islated on a million-year scale and hard issue like nuclear “The work I do uses a lot of methods that are used in sociology, but for people to grasp. One of her projects is energy, it’s from the it’s very interdisciplinary,” says Schwarzenbach, who decided to shift from considering what impact nuclear waste a legal to a more sociological perspective mid-career. “At Harvard, you will have in the near future. perspective of trying can connect so many dots, and learn from so many different fields as well. “This literally affects all of us, but to bring people in That has been a source of inspiration for my own research endeavors.” there’s a small percentage of people who and be inclusive.” Through her research, she has tried to understand the potential study it,” Turner said. “So whenever I’m links between discrimination, state legitimacy, and violent extrem- trying to explain an issue like nuclear energy, it’s from the perspective ism. Her work in multi-ethnic cities in Europe, including France and of trying to bring people in and be inclusive,” she added. Germany, has allowed her to study the effects of disaffection and distrust Turner, who is from the small town of Granger, Indiana, is aware in promoting extremist views. that she is fortunate to have had access to an education that many “One hypothesis is that experiences of discrimination by state people do not have. With that mindset, she tries to take advantage institutions, such as the police, negatively affect the public’s under- of her time as a fellow at the Belfer Center. She attends as many edu- standing of the government—and consequently of society at large,” cational events as possible at the Kennedy School, especially to hear Schwarzenbach says. “These experiences of discrimination, especially if major presentations and discussions in the JFK Jr. Forum. In her free recurrent, delegitimize governments in the eyes of the public and might time, she takes advantage of activities unique to Boston, like attending affect the levels of political violence in a society, too.” She is committed Red Sox games or exploring the city’s colonial history. to shedding light on this relationship and hopes her findings will prove useful to policymakers.

20 Newsletter | Summer 2019 Dealing with Disinformation: Lessons from Taiwan and Korea

With a research grant from the Belfer Center, three Harvard Kennedy School students— Casey Corcoran, Bo Julie Crowley, and Raina Davis—traveled to Taiwan and South Korea in January to conduct research on disinformation campaigns that have long been part of East Asian politics. They describe their goals, methods, and takeaways in a forthcoming report, “Disinformation Threat Watch: The Disinformation Landscape in East Asia and Implications for U.S. Policy.”

Why did you select East Asia for Bo Julie Crowley (MPP1), Casey Corcoran (MPP1/JD), and Raina Davis (MPP1) present their conducting election disinformation new report “Disinformation Threat Watch: The Disinformation Landscape in East Asia and Impli- research? cations for US Policy” during a Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P) seminar.

We chose to study disinformation (intended false the bottom” where the use of automated software • Compel Private Sector Action: Technology information) in East Asia to better understand the to sway public opinion becomes more widespread. companies must do more to combat disinfor- global landscape of disinformation and gather les- Additionally, the weaponization of “fake news” by mation on their platforms. Content platforms sons learned for the U.S. While the 2016 election domestic politicians threatens civil liberties and can undertake specific actions to achieve highlighted the impact of disinformation on U.S. undermines trust in public institutions. this, such as: politics, disinformation is a global challenge and • Incorporate third party apps that label has a long legacy in Taiwanese and South Korean From your research, what recommenda- disinformation; politics. As democracies, Taiwan and South Korea tions did you take away for U.S. elections? share the challenge of combating disinformation • Verify citizenship requirements for all while preserving civil liberties. • Speak Out Early and Often: Government political ad purchases; leaders should develop an interagency How did you go about gathering the response plan to address disinformation as • Establish direct channels with election information you needed? early and forcefully as possible. officials globally to enhance rapid response capabilities; We interviewed more than 50 government • Increase Transparency: Intelligence agencies • Create operating standards to remove or officials, journalists, and civil society members to should release open source data to explain de-emphasize disinformation; develop our case studies. how they attributed content to foreign actors.

This will improve independent research and • Provide open APIs to researchers and Taiwan: Taiwan faces a systematic disinformation public trust in the government’s conclusion. government officials. campaign by the People’s Republic of China aimed at influencing election outcomes and public opin- • Acknowledge Capability Gaps and Support ion to advance Chinese interests. Increasing social Civil Solutions: Civil society is better-posi- What is the main lesson you learned for and political polarization, as well as a sensational tioned to respond to some kinds of disinfor- the U.S. and other governments? media climate, have amplified the spread and mation without infringing on civil liberties. impact of disinformation. Taiwanese civil society Government should support civil society In the long term, government must address the has developed a range of creative solutions to groups with grants to enable their work while root of the problem: The most effective disinfor- combat disinformation, but individual organiza- maintaining their independence. mation plays on real world fears or insecurities. tions struggle to reach a broad audience and scale Leaders need to create dialogues and policies their limited resources. • Engage in Intelligence Sharing: The United that address the legitimate concerns and States should increase cooperation with grievances of citizens and promote a proactive Republic of Korea: Disinformation has not defin- partners and allies to help each other manage message to counteract malicious ones. itively influenced the outcome of South Korean domestic information landscapes. elections, but scandals that implicate political aides and intelligence officials may instigate a “race to

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 21 Hot off the Presses

Inside the Five-Sided Box: Lessons Do Morals Matter? Presidents and from a Lifetime of Leadership in the Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump Pentagon By Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Harvard University By Ash Carter, Director, Belfer Center for Science Distinguished Service Professor and International Affairs; Former Secretary, Oxford University Press, Department of Defense Forthcoming December 2019 Penguin/Random House, June 2019

The Pentagon is the headquarters of the single largest institution in In Do Morals Matter?, Joseph S. Nye, Jr. provides a concise yet America: the Department of Defense. Yet to most Americans, the dealings penetrating analysis of the role of ethics in U.S. foreign policy during of the D.O.D. are a mystery, and the Pentagon nothing more than an the American era after 1945. Nye works through each presidency from opaque five-sided box that they regard with a mixture of awe and suspicion. Truman to Trump and scores their foreign policy on three ethical dimen- In this new book, former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter demystifies sions of their intentions, the means they used, and the consequences of the Pentagon and sheds light on all that happens inside one of the nation’s their decisions. Alongside this, he also evaluates their leadership qualities, most iconic, and most closely guarded, buildings. Drawn from Carter’s elaborating on which approaches work and which ones do not. Regardless thirty-six years of leadership experience in the D.O.D., this is the essential of a president’s policy preferences, Nye shows that each one was not con- book for understanding the challenge of defending America in a dangerous strained by the structure of the system and actually had choices. He further world—and imparting a trove of incisive lessons that can guide leaders in notes the important ethical consequences of non-actions, such as Truman’s any complex organization. willingness to accept stalemate in Korea rather than use nuclear weapons. Since we so often apply moral reasoning to foreign policy, Nye sug- “Everyone knows Ash Carter is one of America’s most respected leaders, gests how to do it better. Most importantly, presidents need to factor in but I know firsthand that he is also one of the great technologists of our time. both the political context and the availability of resources when deciding He adeptly used both gifts to make the Pentagon as innovative as possible. This how to implement an ethical policy. book tells us how he did it, and what he thinks needs to happen in the future.” —Eric Schmidt, Technical Advisor, Alphabet Inc. Titans of the Climate: Explaining Policy Process in the United States and China The Age of Living Machines: By Kelly Sims Gallagher, Member of the Board, How Biology Will Build the Next Belfer Center, and Xiaowei Xuan, former Research Fellow, Energy Technology Innovation Policy Technology Revolution Research Group

MIT Press, February 2019 By Susan Hockfield, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs In Titans of the Climate, Kelly Sims Gallagher and Xiaowei Xuan W.W. Norton, May 2019 examine how the planet’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters develop and implement climate policy. The world’s population is projected to rise to well over 9.5 billion by Gallagher, a former U.S. climate policymaker, and Xuan, a member 2050, and we are currently faced with the consequences of producing the of a Chinese policy think tank, describe the specific drivers—political, energy that fuels, heats, and cools us. With temperatures and sea levels economic, and social—of climate policies in both countries and map the rising, and large portions of the globe plagued with drought, famine, and differences between policy outcomes. They characterize the U.S. approach drug-resistant diseases, we need new technologies to tackle these problems. as “deliberative incrementalism;” the Chinese, meanwhile, engage in “stra- The Age of Living Machines describes some of the most exciting tegic pragmatism.” Comparing the policy processes of the two countries, new developments and the scientists and engineers who helped create Gallagher and Xuan make the case that if each country understands more them. Virus-built batteries. Protein-based water filters. Cancer-detecting about the other’s goals and constraints, climate policy cooperation is more nanoparticles. Mind-reading bionic limbs. Computer-engineered crops. likely to succeed.

“Entertaining and prescient....Hockfield demonstrates how nature’s molecular “An insightful analysis of climate change efforts in the United States and China: riches may be leveraged to provide potential solutions to some of humanity’s domestically determined, internationally collaborative, globally decisive.” existential challenges.” —Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary, UN — Adrian Woolfson, Science Framework Convention on Climate Change

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

22 Newsletter | Summer 2019 News & Impact Vol. 43 No. 4 Spring 2019

Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal IN D.C. BEFORE CONGRESS International Order John J. Mearsheimer The Belfer Center’s National Security Fellows In April, Project on Managing the Atom’s Matthew The liberal international order led by the United States traveled to Washington, D.C. in early May for Bunn, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey was destined to collapse. Liberal excesses provoked a meetings at the White House, State Department, released a policy brief calling on Congress to powerful nationalist backlash. In the emerging multipolar world, a realist order will manage the world economy, and Pentagon, and other agencies to present increase funding for programs that reduce the Chinese-led and U.S.-led bounded orders will help the takeaways from their research. They met with dangers of nuclear theft and terrorism. Their brief two great powers prosecute their security competition. the Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick M. is titled “Securing Nuclear Weapons and Materials Shanahan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Joseph Worldwide: Expanded Funding Needed for a More A Flawed Framework: Why the Liberal Dunford, Secretary of the Air Force Heather Ambitious Approach.” International Order Concept Is Misguided Wilson, and other top leaders. Charles L. Glaser Maintaining the liberal international order is central in the debate over U.S. security and foreign policy. Much Former National Security Fellow James of what the liberal order purports to explain, however, McConville has been nominated by the White can be explained by other theories. Analyzing issues through a grand-strategic lens would provide broader House to become the next Army Chief of Staff. options for achieving U.S. interests.

On May 13, the Technology and Public Purpose Proliferation and the Logic of the Nuclear Market Project (TAPP) and New America's Public Interest Eliza Gheorghe Tech Teams co-hosted the Data Privacy + Design What explains the scale and speed of nuclear Workshop in Washington DC. The event brought At a hearing in March on “China’s Challenges proliferation? One key factor is the level of competition together UX/UI designers, engineers, privacy to U.S. Commerce,” Eric Rosenbach testified among suppliers in the market for nuclear materials and technologies. When suppliers form a cartel, experts from civil society organizations, research- before the Senate Committee on Commerce, fewer countries can acquire what they need for ers, and congressional staff.TAPP is also working Science and Transportation about China’s move nuclear weapons program. If great power competition on a forthcoming report that will examine the into the Information Age. Without a U.S. national intensifies, suppliers will find it harder to cooperate and nuclear proliferation could accelerate. landscape of science and technology (S&T) strategy, he said, our country “risks ceding its expertise and resources available to Congress. leadership role in future economic, military, and Buying Allies: Payment Practices in Multilateral political landscapes.” Military Coalition-Building AWARDS Marina E. Henke Nicholas Burns and Douglas Lute testified Many states have been paid to join multilateral military Belfer Center Director and former Secretary of before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in coalitions. These payments are largely covered by Defense Ash Carter and Science, Technology, March about NATO and the vital importance “pivotal states”—those that care the most about an operation’s success—and take the form of deployment and Public Policy Co-Director and former Science of American leadership in the alliance. On the subsidies and political side deals to attract critical Advisor to the President John P. Holdren have seventieth anniversary of NATO, Burns and contributors to the mission. been selected by the government of Japan to Lute discussed their report, NATO at Seventy: receive the prestigious Order of the Rising Sun An Alliance in Crisis, at the Munich Security Power and Profit at Sea: The Rise of the West in awards for their notable contributions to strength- Conference and at several other major events. the Making of the International System ening Japan-U.S. relations in the fields of security/ J.C. Sharman defense and science/technology, respectively. SHAPING PUBLIC OPINION Beginning in the 1400s, Europeans built the global international system by using naval force to achieve commercial success. Europeans had a technical capacity Carter will receive the Grand Cordon of the Order of Through panel discussions, presentations, and and a cultural inclination to control the seas that Eastern empires lacked. the Rising Sun and Holdren the Order of the Rising interviews about her new book, How We Win, Senior Sun, Gold and Silver Star. They are recognized Fellow Farah Pandith continues to raise awareness for their work with Japan during the Obama of why she believes young people become extrem- administration. ists and how to prevent that conversion.

The International Security journal is edited at Matthew Meselson, Belfer Center Board member Amanda Sloat, fellow with the Project on Europe Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and and Harvard Professor, has received the $50,000 and Transatlantic Relations, has helped keep the published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions Future of Life Award for his role in the 1972 biological world informed on Brexit issues and U.S.-Europe may be directed to [email protected]. Weapons Convention, an international treaty that relations through her insightful commentary in Follow us on Twitter affirmed the existing ban on the use of biological print and broadcast media. @journal_is weapons and also banned production, stockpiling, and offensive research into biological weapons. Compiled by International Security staff

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 23 Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Permit No. 375 Science and International Affairs

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Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2019

EDITOR: Sharon Wilke Associate Director of Communications [email protected]

DESIGNER: Andrew Facini Publishing Manager [email protected]

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Josh Burek Director of Global Communications and Strategy [email protected] The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, The Communications Office was assisted in the production of this newsletter by environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for Jordan D’Amato, Hannah Ebanks, Christian Gibbons, John P. Holdren, Rex Horner, these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe Dong-Hyeon Kim, Susan Lynch, John Park, and Cristine Russell.

Cover image of Earth and pages 4-5 satellite imagery courtesy NASA. Follow us on our various @BelferCenter All other photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted. social media channels:

Farewell to Jean Woodward Congratulations

fter 32 years at Harvard Kennedy Harvard Kennedy School Dean Douglas Elemendorf ASchool, Jean Woodward will retire at announced in May the promotion of the Belfer the end of June. Center’s Juliette Kayyem to Senior Lecturer. Starting at Harvard Kennedy School in Through her teaching, government service, journal- the spring of 1987, Woodward’s first position ism, and private sector work, Kayyem is a national was with Executive Education’s National leader in America’s homeland security efforts. Security Program as a program coordinator — and as a writing consultant/coordinator for Joseph Aldy, a Belfer Center affiliate who works the National Security Fellows. She worked on actively with the Harvard Project on Climate the inaugural, historic Executive Program for Agreements, has been appointed Professor of the Soviet Officers in 1991, which brought Soviet Practice of Public Policy at the Kennedy School. general and flag officers to Harvard Kennedy —

School to study democracy-building. Jean Woodward, Assistant Director of the National Security Associate Professor of Public Policy Dara Kay Fellows Program, with former Director of National Intelligence Woodward has worked with every James Clapper following a National Security Fellows Executive Cohen, who works with the Center’s International group of Fellows since the class of 1987 and Program he taught at the Kennedy School in August 2018. Security Program, received the Emerging Scholar has administered the Program for 20 years, She has mentored hundreds of other Award from the International Security Studies continuing in that position when the Program students, fellows, and young people during Section of the International Studies Association. joined the Belfer Center last year. She maintains her time at Harvard. Cohen’s research focuses on civil war and the close relationships with the more than 600 NSF Prior to Harvard, Woodward held positions dynamics of violence, and gender and conflict. alumni and has been privileged, she says, to in electoral field organization, curriculum — watch their careers flourish. “These outstanding publishing, and writing and administration Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow Sébastien officers and intelligence community officials,” in the field of popular music and studio Philippe has been selected to participate in the she notes, “have gone on to be chiefs of services recording. A native Bostonian, she studied 69th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, scheduled or agencies, general and flag officers, and anthropology and communications at Syracuse for late June. Philippe conducts research at leaders of non-profit organizations—devoting University, both of which she employed in her the intersection of measurement systems and their lives to public service.” career working with the military. cryptography, with applications to nuclear arms control verification.

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