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American Policy and Changing Alignments in the Middle East

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American Policy and Changing Alignments in the Middle East American Policy and Changing Alignments in the Middle East Adam Lammon American Policy and Changing Alignments in the Middle East Geoffrey Kemp, John Allen Gay, Adam Lammon Center for the National Interest The Center for the National Interest is a nonpartisan public policy institution established by former President Richard Nixon in 1994. Its current programs focus on American defense and national security, energy and climate security, regional security in the Middle East, and U.S. relations with China, Japan, Europe, and Russia. The Center also publishes the bimonthly foreign affairs magazine The National Interest. The Center is supported by foundation, corporate and individual donors, as well as by an endowment. Copyright 2018. Center for the National Interest. All Rights Reserved. American Policy and Changing Alignments in the Middle East By Geoffrey Kemp, John Allen Gay, Adam Lammon Center for the National Interest 1025 Connecticut Ave, NW, Suite 1200 Washington, D.C. 20036 Phone: (202) 887-1000 E-mail: [email protected] www.cftni.org Cover design by Gabriella Turrisi Photographs from Reuters: From top (front to back): Yannis Behrakis, Reuters, Erik de Castro, Azad Lashkari Acknowledgments This study was supported by a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation and with encouragement from the Center for the National Interest’s Executive Director, Paul J. Saunders. The Center for the National Interest would like to thank Henri Barkey, Fiona Hill, Dennis Ross, James Dobbins, Steven Szabo, and Charles W. Freeman for their participation in a series of seminars that were invaluable in structuring the research and argumentation, as well as the Center’s former Program Assistant, Luke Hagberg, and interns Bradley L. Nelson and Benjamin Totto. Special thanks is due to Jacob Eishen, another intern at the Center, for his tireless efforts to improve the monograph’s structure, as well as his research and analytical contributions. About the Authors Geoffrey Kemp is the Senior Director of Regional Security Programs at the Center for the National Interest, and previously served as the Director of Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. During the first Reagan administration he was Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. He received tenure as a member of the faculty of Tuft’s University with the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, has written many books and monographs on regional security, and frequently writes on U.S. foreign policy for varied media outlets. Dr. Kemp received his Ph.D. in political science from M.I.T. and his graduate and post-graduate degrees from Oxford University. John Allen Gay is the Executive Director at the John Quincy Adams Society, and previously served as the managing editor of The National Interest magazine. He is the coauthor of War with Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences. He completed his master’s degree in international relations from Syracuse University’s Maxwell School and his bachelor’s in philosophy from the College of William & Mary. Adam Lammon is the Program Assistant at the Center for the National Interest. His work, which focuses on issues of national security, nuclear proliferation, and Middle Eastern geopolitics, has appeared in The Jerusalem Post, The Jewish Veteran, and The National Interest. He received his master’s degree in security policy studies from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University and his bachelor of arts in international relations from the University of Delaware. Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 The Modern Middle East ...................................................................................................................... 3 Key Arab States Outside the Gulf ........................................................................................ 9 Syria ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 Iraq ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 Lebanon............................................................................................................................................... 15 Jordan .................................................................................................................................................. 17 Egypt ................................................................................................................................................... 19 Libya ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Yemen ................................................................................................................................................. 21 The Arab Gulf States ......................................................................................................... 23 Saudi Arabia ........................................................................................................................................ 24 The United Arab Emirates .................................................................................................................. 28 Qatar .................................................................................................................................................... 30 Bahrain ................................................................................................................................................ 32 Kuwait ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Oman ................................................................................................................................................... 33 Israel .................................................................................................................................. 35 History................................................................................................................................................. 35 Arab-Israeli Relations ......................................................................................................................... 35 The Palestinians .................................................................................................................................. 36 Israel and Its Neighbors ...................................................................................................................... 39 Israel and the Iran Deal ....................................................................................................................... 42 An Israeli-Sunni State Axis? ............................................................................................................... 43 Iran .................................................................................................................................... 47 History................................................................................................................................................. 47 Vulnerabilities ..................................................................................................................................... 51 Challenges for U.S. Policy .................................................................................................................. 52 Turkey ................................................................................................................................ 57 Overview and History ......................................................................................................................... 57 The Erdogan Problem ......................................................................................................................... 58 Turkey and the Kurds .......................................................................................................................... 59 Energy ................................................................................................................................................. 61 Turkey and the Refugee Issue ............................................................................................................. 62 Vulnerabilities ..................................................................................................................................... 63 Russia ................................................................................................................................. 65 Moscow in the Eastern Mediterranean ................................................................................................ 67 Russia and Iran .................................................................................................................................... 68 Russia and Turkey ............................................................................................................................... 68 Vulnerabilities ..................................................................................................................................... 70 Backup Ally, Not Rival ......................................................................................................................
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