Federal Register/Vol. 77, No. 249/Friday, December 28, 2012/Rules and Regulations

76706 Federal Register / Vol. 77, No. 249 / Friday, December 28, 2012 / Rules and Regulations

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Protected Resources, Alaska Region, about threats to their habitat from NMFS, Attn: Ellen Sebastian. You may climate warming and loss of sea ice. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric submit this information, identified by petitioner also requested that critical Administration FDMS Docket Number NOAA–NMFS– habitat be designated for these species 2010–0258, by any one of the following concurrently with listing under the 50 CFR Parts 223 and 224 methods: ESA. In response to the petition, we • [Docket No. 101126590–2478–03] Electronic Submissions: Submit all published a 90-day finding that the electronic public comments via the petition presented substantial scientific RIN 0648–XZ59 Federal eRulemaking Portal http:// or commercial information indicating www.regulations.gov. To submit that the petitioned action may be Endangered and Threatened Species; information via the e-Rulemaking warranted (73 FR 51615; September 4, Threatened Status for the Arctic, Portal, first click the ‘‘submit a 2008). Accordingly, we prepared status Okhotsk, and Baltic Subspecies of the comment’’ icon, then enter NOAA– reviews of ringed, bearded, and spotted Ringed Seal and Endangered Status NMFS–2010–0258 in the keyword seals and solicited information for the Ladoga Subspecies of the search. Locate the document you wish pertaining to them. Ringed Seal to comment on from the resulting list On September 8, 2009, the Center for AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries and click on the ‘‘Submit a Comment’’ Biological Diversity filed a lawsuit in Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and icon on the right of that line. the U.S. District Court for the District of Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), • Mail: Submit written comments to Columbia alleging that we failed to Commerce. P.O. Box 21668, Juneau, AK 99802. make the requisite 12-month finding on ACTION: Final rule. • Fax: (907) 586–7557. its petition to list the three seal species. • Hand delivery to the Federal Subsequently, the Court entered a SUMMARY: We, NMFS, issue a final Building: 709 West 9th Street, Room consent decree under which we agreed determination to list the Arctic (Phoca 420A, Juneau, AK. to finalize the status review of the hispida hispida), Okhotsk (Phoca Comments must be submitted by one ringed seal (and the bearded seal) and hispida ochotensis), and Baltic (Phoca of the above methods to ensure that the submit a 12-month finding to the Office hispida botnica) subspecies of the comments are received, documented, of the Federal Register by December 3, ringed seal (Phoca hispida) as and considered by NMFS. Comments 2010. Following completion of a status threatened and the Ladoga (Phoca sent by any other method, to any other review report and 12-month finding for hispida ladogensis) subspecies of the address or individual, or received after spotted seals in October 2009 (74 FR ringed seal as endangered under the the end of the comment period, may not 53683; October 20, 2009; see also 75 FR Endangered Species Act (ESA). We will be considered. 65239; October 22, 2010), we propose to designate critical habitat for All comments received are a part of established Biological Review Teams the Arctic ringed seal in a future the public record and will generally be (BRTs) to prepare status review reports rulemaking. To assist us in this effort, posted for public viewing on for ringed and bearded seals. we solicit information that may be www.regulations.gov without change. The status review report for the ringed relevant to the designation of critical All personal identifying information seal (Kelly et al., 2010a) is a compilation habitat for Arctic ringed seals. In light (e.g., name, address, etc.) submitted of the best scientific and commercial data available concerning the status of of public comments and upon further voluntarily by the sender may be the species, including identification and review, we are withdrawing the publicly accessible. Do not submit assessment of the past, present, and proposed ESA section 4(d) protective confidential business information, or future threats to the species. The BRT regulations for threatened subspecies of otherwise sensitive or protected that prepared this report was composed the ringed seal because we have information. of eight marine mammal biologists, a determined that such regulations are not NMFS will accept anonymous fishery biologist, a marine chemist, and necessary or advisable for the comments (enter ‘‘N/A’’ in the required a climate scientist from NMFS’s Alaska conservation of the Arctic, Okhotsk, or fields if you wish to remain and Northeast Fisheries Science Baltic subspecies of the ringed seal at anonymous). Attachments to electronic Centers, NOAA’s Pacific Marine this time. Given their current comments will be accepted in Microsoft population sizes, the long-term nature of Environmental Lab, and the U.S. Fish Word or Excel, WordPerfect, or Adobe and Wildlife Service (FWS). The status the primary threat to these subspecies PDF file formats only. (habitat alteration stemming from review report underwent independent FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: peer review by five scientists with climate change), and the existing Tamara Olson, NMFS Alaska Region, protections under the Marine Mammal expertise in ringed seal biology, Arctic (907) 271–5006; Jon Kurland, NMFS sea ice, climate change, and ocean Protection Act, it is unlikely that the Alaska Region, (907) 586–7638; or Marta proposed protective regulations would acidification. Nammack, NMFS Office of Protected The BRT reviewed the best scientific provide appreciable conservation Resources, (301) 427–8469. and commercial data available on the benefits. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: ringed seal’s taxonomy and concluded DATES: This final rule is effective on that there are five currently recognized Background February 26, 2013. Replies to the subspecies of the ringed seal: Arctic request for information regarding On March 28, 2008, we initiated ringed seal; Baltic ringed seal; Okhotsk designation of critical habitat for Arctic status reviews of ringed, bearded ringed seal; Ladoga ringed seal; and ringed seals must be received by (Erignathus barbatus), and spotted seals Saimaa ringed seal (which previously February 26, 2013. (Phoca largha) under the ESA (73 FR was listed as endangered under the ADDRESSES: You may submit comments 16617). On May 28, 2008, we received ESA; 58 FR 26920; May 6, 1993). and information related to the a petition from the Center for Biological On December 10, 2010, we published identification of critical habitat for the Diversity to list these three species of in the Federal Register a 12-month Arctic ringed seal to Jon Kurland, seals as threatened or endangered under finding and proposed to list the Arctic, Assistant Regional Administrator for the ESA, primarily due to concerns Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga subspecies

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of the ringed seal as threatened (75 FR The ESA defines the term that the farther into the future the 77476). We also concluded in that ‘‘endangered species’’ as ‘‘any species analysis extends, the greater the finding that the Saimaa subspecies of which is in danger of extinction inherent uncertainty, and we the ringed seal remains in danger of throughout all or a significant portion of incorporated that limitation into our extinction, consistent with its current its range.’’ The term ‘‘threatened assessment of the threats and the listing as endangered under the ESA. species’’ is defined as ‘‘any species species’ response. For other threats, We published a 12-month finding for which is likely to become endangered where the best scientific and bearded seals as a separate notification within the foreseeable future throughout commercial data do not extend as far concurrently with this finding (75 FR all or a significant portion of its range.’’ into the future, such as for occurrences 77496; December 10, 2010), and The foreseeability of a species’ future and projections of disease or parasitic proposed to list two population status is case specific and depends upon outbreaks, we limited our analysis to the segments of bearded seals as threatened. both the foreseeability of threats to the extent of such data. This threat-specific On December 13, 2011, we published species and foreseeability of the species’ approach creates a more robust analysis in the Federal Register a document response to those threats. When a of the best scientific and commercial announcing a 6-month extension of the species is exposed to a variety of threats, data available. It is also consistent with deadline for a final listing determination each threat may be foreseeable over a the memorandum issued by the to address substantial disagreement different time frame. For example, Department of Interior, Office of the relating to the sufficiency or accuracy of threats stemming from well-established, Solicitor, regarding the meaning of the the model projections and analysis of observed trends in a global physical term ‘‘foreseeable future’’ (Opinion M– future sea ice, and in particular snow process may be foreseeable on a much 37021; January 16, 2009). cover, for Arctic ringed seals (76 FR longer time horizon than a threat NMFS and FWS recently published a 77466). At that time we also announced stemming from a potential, though draft policy to clarify the interpretation that to address the disagreement and unpredictable, episodic process such as of the phrase ‘‘significant portion of the better inform our final determination, an outbreak of disease that may never range’’ in the ESA definitions of we would conduct a special have been observed to occur in the ‘‘threatened’’ and ‘‘endangered’’ (76 FR independent peer review of the sections species. 76987; December 9, 2011). The draft of the status review report over which The principal threat to ringed seals is policy consists of the following four there was substantial disagreement. We habitat alteration stemming from components: subsequently conducted this special climate change. In the 2008 status 1. If a species is found to be peer review and made available for review for the ribbon seal (Boveng et al., endangered or threatened in only a comment the resulting peer review 2008; see also 73 FR 79822, December significant portion of its range, the report (NMFS, 2012) that consolidated 30, 2008), NMFS scientists used the entire species is listed as endangered or the comments received (77 FR 20773; same climate projections used in our threatened, respectively, and the ESA’s April 6, 2012). risk assessment for ringed seals (which protections apply across the species’ is summarized in the preamble to this entire range. ESA Statutory, Regulatory, and Policy final rule), and analyzed threats 2. A portion of the range of a species Provisions associated with climate change through is ‘‘significant’’ if its contribution to the Two key tasks are associated with 2050. One reason for that approach was viability of the species is so important conducting an ESA status review. The the difficulty of incorporating the that, without that portion, the species first is to identify the taxonomic group increased divergence and uncertainty in would be in danger of extinction. under consideration; and the second is climate scenarios beyond that time. 3. The range of a species is considered to conduct an extinction risk assessment Other reasons included the lack of data to be the general geographical area to determine whether the petitioned for threats other than those related to within which that species can be found species is threatened or endangered. climate change beyond 2050, and the at the time FWS or NMFS makes any To be considered for listing under the fact that uncertainty embedded in the particular status determination. This ESA, a group of organisms must assessment of the ribbon seal’s response range includes those areas throughout constitute a ‘‘species,’’ which section to threats increased as the analysis all or part of the species’ life cycle, even 3(16) of the ESA defines to include ‘‘any extended farther into the future. if they are not used regularly (e.g., subspecies of fish or wildlife or plants, Since completing the analysis for seasonal habitats). Lost historical range and any distinct population segment of ribbon seals, with its climate impact is relevant to the analysis of the status any species of vertebrate fish or wildlife analysis, NMFS scientists have revised of the species, but cannot constitute a which interbreeds when mature.’’ The their analytical approach to the significant portion of a species’ range. term ‘‘distinct population segment’’ foreseeability of threats due to climate 4. If the species is not endangered or (DPS) is not commonly used in change and responses to those threats, threatened throughout all of its range, scientific discourse, so FWS and NMFS adopting a more threat-specific but it is endangered or threatened developed the ‘‘Policy Regarding the approach based on the best scientific within a significant portion of its range, Recognition of Distinct Vertebrate and commercial data available for each and the population in that significant Population Segments Under the respective threat. For example, because portion is a valid DPS, we will list the Endangered Species Act’’ to provide a the climate projections in the DPS rather than the entire taxonomic consistent interpretation of this term for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate species or subspecies. the purposes of listing, delisting, and Change’s (IPCC’s) Fourth Assessment The Services are currently reviewing reclassifying vertebrates under the ESA Report (AR4; IPCC, 2007) extend public comment received on the draft (61 FR 4722; February 7, 1996). The five through the end of the century (and we policy. While the Services’ intent subspecies of the ringed seal qualify as note the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report ultimately is to establish a legally ‘‘species’’ under the ESA. In the (AR5), due in 2014, will extend even binding interpretation of the term Summary of Comments and Responses farther into the future), for our analysis ‘‘significant portion of the range,’’ the below, we discuss the application of the of ringed seals we used the same models draft policy does not have legal effect DPS policy to the ringed seal to assess impacts from climate change until such time as it may be adopted as subspecies. through 2100. We continue to recognize final policy. However, the discussion

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and conclusions set forth in the draft A. Present or Threatened Destruction, of 80° N. latitude) also shows declines policy are consistent with NMFS’s past Modification, or Curtailment of the in sea ice cover that are most apparent practice as well as our understanding of Species’ Habitat or Range in July and November after 2050. For the statutory framework and language. The main concern about the Hudson Bay, under a warmer climate We have therefore considered the draft conservation status of ringed seals stems scenario (for the years 2041–2070) Joly policy as non-binding guidance in from the likelihood that their sea ice et al. (2010) projected a reduction in the evaluating whether to list the Arctic, habitat has been modified by the sea ice season of 7–9 weeks, with Okhotsk, Ladoga, and/or Baltic warming climate and, more so, that the substantial reductions in sea ice cover most apparent in July and during the subspecies of the ringed seal under the scientific consensus projections are for first months of winter. ESA. continued and perhaps accelerated In the Bering Sea, April and May ice warming in the foreseeable future. A Species Information cover is projected to decline throughout second concern, related by the common this century, with substantial inter- A thorough review of the taxonomy, driver of carbon dioxide (CO2) annual variability forecasted in the life history, and ecology of the ringed emissions, is the modification of habitat eastern Bering Sea. The projection for seal is presented in the status review by ocean acidification, which may alter May indicates that there will commonly report (Kelly et al., 2010a; available at prey populations and other important be years with little or no ice in the aspects of the marine ecosystem. A http://alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/). This western Bering Sea beyond mid-century. reliable assessment of the future information, along with an analysis of Very little ice has remained in the conservation status of each of the species delineation and DPSs, was eastern Bering Sea in June since the subspecies of the ringed seal therefore summarized in the preamble to the mid-1970s. Sea ice cover in the Barents requires a focus on the observed and Sea in April and May is also projected proposed rule (75 FR 77476; December projected changes in sea ice, snow 10, 2010) and will not be repeated here. to decline throughout this century, and cover, ocean temperature, ocean pH in the months of June and July, ice is Summary of Factors Affecting the (acidity), and associated changes in expected to disappear rapidly in the Ringed Seal ringed seal prey species. coming decades. The threats associated with impacts of Based on model projections, April Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA and the the warming climate on the habitat of snow depths over much of the range of listing regulations (50 CFR part 424) set ringed seals (analyzed in the preamble the Arctic ringed seal averaged 25–35 forth procedures for listing species. We to the proposed rule and in the status cm in the first decade of this century, must determine, through the regulatory review report), to the extent that they consistent with on-ice measurements by process, if a species is endangered or may pose risks to these seals, are Russian scientists (Weeks, 2010). By threatened because of any one or a expected to manifest throughout the mid-century, a substantial decrease in combination of the following factors: (1) current breeding and molting range (for areas with April snow depths of 25–35 The present or threatened destruction, snow and ice related threats) or cm is projected (much of it reduced to modification, or curtailment of its throughout the entire range (for ocean 20–25 cm). The deepest snow (25–30 habitat or range; (2) overutilization for warming and acidification) of each of cm) is forecasted to be found just north commercial, recreational, scientific, or the subspecies. of Greenland, in the Canadian Arctic While our inferences about future educational purposes; (3) disease or Archipelago, and in an area tapering regional ice and snow conditions are predation; (4) inadequacy of existing north from there into the central Arctic based upon the best available scientific regulatory mechanisms; or (5) other Basin. Southerly regions, such as the and commercial data, we recognize that Bering Sea and Barents Sea, are natural or human-made factors affecting there are uncertainties associated with forecasted to have snow depths of 5 cm its continued existence. The preamble to predictions based on hemispheric or less by mid-century. By the end of the the proposed rule discussed each of projections or indirect means. We also century, April snow depths of 20–25 cm these factors for each subspecies of the note that judging the timing of the onset are forecasted only for a portion of the ringed seal (75 FR 77476; December 10, of potential impacts to ringed seals is central Arctic, most of the Canadian 2010). That discussion will not be complicated by the coarse resolution of Arctic Archipelago, and a few small repeated in its entirety here, but we the IPCC models. Nevertheless, NMFS isolated areas in a few other regions. provide a summary for each of the determined that the models reflect Areas with 25–30 cm of snow are factors below. Section 4.2 of the status reasonable assumptions regarding projected to be limited to a few small review report provides a more detailed habitat alterations to be faced by ringed isolated pockets in the Canadian Arctic discussion of the factors affecting the seals in the foreseeable future. by 2090–2099. five subspecies of the ringed seal (see Okhotsk ringed seal: None of the IPCC Regional Sea Ice and Snow Cover models performed satisfactorily at ADDRESSES). The data on ringed seal Predictions by Subspecies abundance and trends of most projecting sea ice for the Sea of Okhotsk, populations are unavailable or Arctic ringed seal: In the East so projected surface air temperatures imprecise, especially in the Arctic and Siberian, Chukchi, Beaufort, Kara- were examined relative to current Okhotsk subspecies, and there is little Laptev, and Greenland Seas, as well as climate conditions as a proxy to predict basis for quantitatively linking projected in Baffin Bay and the Canadian Arctic sea ice extent and duration. Sea ice environmental conditions or other Archipelago, little or no decline in ice extent is strongly controlled by extent is expected in April and May temperature; this is especially true for factors to ringed seal survival or during the remainder of this century. In smaller bodies of water relative to the reproduction. Our risk assessment most of these areas, a moderate decline grid size of available models. Also, the therefore primarily evaluated important in sea ice is predicted during June physical processes by which increased habitat features and was based upon the within this century; while substantial greenhouse gases (GHGs) lead to best available scientific and commercial declines in sea ice are projected in July warming are better understood and data and the expert opinion of the BRT and November after mid-century. The more easily modeled than the other members. central Arctic (defined as regions north processes that influence sea ice

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formation and persistence. Therefore, Peninsula is projected to decrease 10–30 benefits of reduced ice thickness are whether the whole geographic region percent before mid-century and 50–90 expected to be outweighed by the around the Sea of Okhotsk is above or percent by 2100 (Saelthun et al., 1998, negative effects of increased below the freezing point of sea water cited in Kuusisto, 2005). thermoregulatory costs and should be a reasonable indicator of the vulnerability of seal pups to predation Effects of Changes in Ice and Snow presence or absence of sea ice. associated with earlier ice break-up and Cover on Ringed Seals Based on that analysis, ice is expected reduced snow cover. to persist in the Sea of Okhotsk in Ringed seals are vulnerable to habitat Ringed seals, especially the newborn, March during the remainder of this loss from changes in the extent or depend on snow cover for protection century, although ice may be limited to concentration of sea ice because they from cold temperatures and predators. the northern region in most years after depend on this habitat for pupping, Occupation of subnivean lairs is mid-century. Conditions for sea ice in nursing, molting, and resting. The especially critical when pups are nursed April are likely to be limited to the far ringed seal’s broad distribution, ability in late March–June. Ferguson et al. northern reaches of the Sea of Okhotsk to undertake long movements, diverse (2005) attributed low ringed seal or non-existent by 2100. Little to no sea diet, and association with widely recruitment in western Hudson Bay to ice is expected in May by mid-century. varying ice conditions suggest resilience decreased snow depth in April and Average snow depth projections for in the face of environmental variability. May. Reduced snowfall results in less April show depths of 15–20 cm only in However, the ringed seal’s long snow drift accumulation next to the northern portions of the Sea of generation time and ability to produce pressure ridges, and pups in lairs with Okhotsk in the past 10 years and only a single pup each year will thin snow cover are more vulnerable to nowhere in that sea by mid-century. By challenge its ability to adapt to predation than pups in lairs with thick the end of the century average snow environmental changes such as the snow cover (Hammill and Smith, 1989; depths are projected to be 10 cm or less diminishing ice and snow cover Ferguson et al., 2005). When snow cover even in the northern Sea of Okhotsk. projected in a matter of decades. Ringed is insufficient, pups can also freeze in Baltic and Ladoga ringed seals: For seals apparently thrived during glacial their lairs as documented in 1974 when the Baltic Sea, we considered the maxima and survived warm interglacial roofs of lairs in the White Sea were only analysis of regional climate models by periods. How they survived the latter 5–10 cm thick (Lukin and Potelov, Jylha¨ et al. (2008). They used seven periods or in what numbers is not 1978). Similarly, pup mortality from regional climate models and found good known. Declines in sea ice cover in freezing and polar bear (Ursus agreement with observations for the recent decades are more extensive and maritimus) predation increased when 1902–2000 comparison period. For the rapid than any other known decline for unusually warm spring temperatures forecast period 2071–2100, one model at least the last few thousand years caused early melting near Baffin Island predicted a change to mostly mild (Polyak et al., 2010). in the late 1970s (Smith and Hammill, conditions, while the remaining models Ringed seals create birth lairs in areas 1980; Stirling and Smith, 2004). predicted unprecedentedly mild of accumulated snow on stable ice Prematurely exposed pups also are conditions. They noted that their including the shorefast ice over vulnerable to predation by wolves estimates for a warming climate were in continental shelves along Arctic coasts, (Canis lupus) and foxes (Alopex lagopus agreement with other studies that found bays, and inter-island channels. While and Vulpes vulpes)—as documented unprecedentedly mild ice extent some authors suggest that shorefast ice during an early snow melt in the White conditions in the majority of years after (ice attached to the shore) is the Sea in 1977 (Lukin, 1980)—and by gulls about 2030. The model we used to preferred pupping habitat of ringed (Laridae) and ravens (Corvus corax) as project snow depths (CCSM3) did not seals due to its stability throughout the documented in the Barents Sea (Gjertz provide adequate resolution for the pupping and nursing period, others and Lydersen, 1983; Lydersen and Baltic Sea. The climate models analyzed have documented ringed seal pupping Gjertz, 1987; Lydersen et al., 1987; by Jylha¨ et al. (2008), however, on drifting pack ice both nearshore and Lydersen and Smith, 1989; Lydersen forecasted decreases of 45–60 days in offshore. Both of these habitats can be and Ryg, 1990; Lydersen, 1998). When duration of snow cover by the end of the affected by earlier warming and lack of snow cover has forced birthing century in the northern Baltic Sea break-up in the spring, which shortens to occur in the open, some studies have region. The shortened seasonal snow the length of time pups have to grow reported that nearly 100 percent of pups cover would result primarily from and mature in a protected setting. died from predation (Kumlien, 1879; earlier spring melts, but also from Harwood et al. (2000) reported that an Lydersen et al., 1987; Lydersen and delayed onset of snow cover. Depth of early spring break-up negatively Smith, 1989; Smith et al., 1991; Smith snow is forecasted to decrease 50–70 impacted the growth, condition, and and Lydersen, 1991). The high fidelity percent in the region over the same apparent survival of unweaned ringed to birthing sites exhibited by ringed period. The depth of snow also will be seal pups. Early break-up was believed seals also makes them more susceptible decreased by mid-winter thaws and rain to have interrupted lactation in adult to localized degradation of snow cover events. Simulations of the snow cover females, which in turn, negatively (Kelly et al., 2010b). indicated that an increasing proportion affected the condition and growth of Increased rain-on-snow events during of the snow pack will consist of icy or pups. the late winter also negatively affect wet snow. Unusually heavy ice has also been ringed seal recruitment by damaging or For example, ice cover has implicated in shifting distribution, high eliminating snow-covered birth lairs, diminished about 12 percent over the winter mortality, and reduced increasing exposure and the risk of past 50 years in Lake Ladoga. Although productivity of ringed seals. It has been hypothermia, and facilitating predation we are not aware of any ice forecasts suggested that reduced ice thickness by polar bears and other predators. specific to Lake Ladoga, the simulations associated with warming in some areas Stirling and Smith (2004) documented of future climate reported by Jylha¨ et al. could lead to increased biological the collapse of subnivean lairs during (2008) suggest warming winters with productivity that might benefit ringed unseasonal rains near southeastern reduced ice and snow cover. Snow seals, at least in the short-term. Baffin Island and the subsequent cover in Finland and the Scandinavian However, any transitory and localized exposure of ringed seals to hypothermia.

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They surmised that most of the pups Lydersen and Ryg, 1991; Smith and habitat suitable for pupping, nursing, that survived exposure to cold were Lydersen, 1991; Ferguson et al., 2005). and molting in the Sea of Okhotsk are eventually killed by polar bears, Arctic We therefore considered areas expected to lead to reduced abundance foxes, or possibly gulls. Stirling and forecasted to have less than 20 cm and productivity. Smith (2004) postulated that, should average snow depth in April to be Baltic and Ladoga ringed seals: The early season rain become regular and inadequate for the formation of ringed considerable reductions in ice extent widespread in the future, mortality of seal birth lairs. forecasted by mid-century, coupled with ringed seal pups will increase, Arctic ringed seal: The depth and deteriorating snow conditions, are especially in more southerly parts of duration of snow cover is projected to expected to substantially alter the their range. decrease throughout the range of Arctic habitats of Baltic ringed seals. Climate ringed seals within this century. forecasts for northern Europe also Potential Impacts of Projected Ice and Whether ringed seals will continue to Snow Cover Changes on Ringed Seals suggest reduced ice and snow cover for move north with retreating ice over the Lake Ladoga within this century. These As discussed above, ringed seals deeper, less productive Arctic Basin habitat changes are expected to lead to divide their time between foraging in waters and whether forage species that decreased survival of pups (due to the water, and reproducing and molting they prey on will also move north is hypothermia, predation, and premature out of the water, where they are uncertain and speculative (see weaning) and considerable declines in especially vulnerable to predation. additional discussion below). Initially, the abundance of these subspecies in Females must nurse their pups for 1–2 it is possible that impacts will be the foreseeable future. Although Baltic months, and the small pups are somewhat ameliorated if the subspecies’ and Ladoga ringed seals have been vulnerable to cold temperatures and range retracts northward with its sea ice reported using terrestrial resting sites avian and mammalian predators on the habitats. By 2100, however, April snow when ice is absent, these sites provide ice, especially during the nursing cover is forecasted to become inferior pupping and nursing habitat. As period. Thus, a specific habitat inadequate for the formation and sea ice and snow conditions deteriorate, requirement for ringed seals is adequate occupation of ringed seal birth lairs over Baltic ringed seals will be limited in snow for the occupation of subnivean much of the subspecies’ range. Thus, their ability to respond by shifting their lairs, especially in spring when pups are even if the range of the Arctic ringed range northward because the Baltic Sea born and nursed. seal contracts northward, by 2100 April is bounded to the north by land; and the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has snow cover suitable for birth lairs is landlocked seal population in Lake declined in recent decades and spring expected to be limited to a portion of Ladoga will be unable to shift its range. melt times have become earlier (ACIA, the central Arctic, most of the Canadian 2005). In most areas of the Arctic Ocean, Arctic Archipelago, and a few other Impacts on Ringed Seals Related to snow melt advanced 1–6 weeks from small isolated areas. The projected Changes in Ocean Conditions 1979–2007. Throughout most of the decreases in ice and, especially, snow ringed seal’s range, snow melt occurred cover are expected to lead to increased Ocean acidification is an ongoing within a couple of weeks of weaning. pup mortality from premature weaning, process whereby chemical reactions Thus, in the past three decades, snow hypothermia, and predation. occur that reduce both seawater pH and melts in many areas have been Okhotsk ringed seal: Based on the concentration of carbonate ions pre-dating weaning. Shifts in the timing temperature proxies (which were used when CO2 is absorbed by seawater. of reproduction by other pinnipeds in because the climate models did not Results from global ocean CO2 surveys response to changes in food availability meet the performance criteria for over the past two decades have shown have been documented. However, the projecting sea ice), ice is expected to that ocean acidification is a predictable ability of ringed seals to adapt to earlier persist in the Sea of Okhotsk through consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 snow melts by advancing the timing of the onset of pupping in March through levels. The process of ocean reproduction will be limited by snow the end of this century. Ice suitable for acidification has long been recognized, depths. As discussed above, over most pupping and nursing likely will be but the ecological implications of such of the Arctic Ocean, snow cover reaches limited to the northernmost portions of chemical changes have only recently its maximal depth in May, but most of the sea, as ice is likely to be limited to begun to be appreciated. The waters of that accumulation takes place in that region in April by the end of the the Arctic and adjacent seas are among autumn. It is therefore unlikely that century. The snow cover projections the most vulnerable to ocean snow depths for birth lair formation suggest that snow depths may already acidification. Seawater chemistry would be improved earlier in the spring. be inadequate for lairs in the Sea of measurements in the Baltic Sea suggest In addition, the pace at which snow Okhotsk, and most Okhotsk ringed seals that this sea is equally vulnerable to melts are advancing is rapid relative to apparently now give birth on pack ice acidification as the Arctic. We are not the generation time of ringed seals, in the lee of ice hummocks. However, it aware of specific acidification studies in further challenging the potential for an appears unlikely that this behavior Lake Ladoga. Fresh water systems, adaptive response. could mitigate the threats posed by the however, are much less buffered than Snow drifts to 45 cm or more are expected decreases in sea ice. The Sea ocean waters and are likely to needed for excavation and maintenance of Okhotsk is bounded to the north by experience even larger changes in of simple lairs, and birth lairs require land, which will limit the ability of acidification levels than marine depths of 50 to 65 cm or more (Smith Okhotsk ringed seals to respond to systems. The most likely impact of and Stirling, 1975; Lydersen and Gjertz, deteriorating sea ice and snow ocean acidification on ringed seals will 1986; Kelly, 1988; Furgal et al., 1996; conditions by shifting their range be at lower tropic levels on which the Lydersen, 1998; Lukin et al., 2006). northward. Some Okhotsk ringed seals species’ prey depends. Cascading effects Such drifts typically only occur where have been reported on terrestrial resting are likely both in the marine and average snow depths are at least 20–30 sites during the ice-free season, but freshwater environments. Our limited cm (on flat ice) and where drifting has these sites provide inferior pupping and understanding of planktonic and taken place along pressure ridges or ice nursing habitat. Within the foreseeable benthic calcifiers in the Arctic (e.g., hummocks (Hammill and Smith, 1991; future, the projected decreases in sea ice even their baseline geographical

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distributions) means that future changes B. Overutilization for Commercial, virulence, but we continue to consider will be difficult to detect and evaluate. Subsistence, Recreational, Scientific, or the potential threats to ringed seals from Warming water temperatures and Educational Purposes disease as low. decreasing ice likely will result in a Ringed seals have been hunted by Ringed seals are most commonly contraction in the range of Arctic cod, humans for millennia and remain a preyed upon by Arctic foxes and polar a primary prey of ringed seals. The same fundamental subsistence resource for bears, and less commonly by other changes will lead to colonization of the many northern coastal communities terrestrial carnivores, sharks, and killer Arctic Ocean by more southerly species, today. Ringed seals were also harvested whales (Orcinus orca). When ringed seal including potential prey, predators, and commercially in large numbers during pups are forced out of subnivean lairs competitors. The outcome of new the 20th century, which led to the prematurely because of low snow competitive interactions cannot be depletion of their stocks in many parts accumulation and/or early melts, gulls specified, but as sea-ice specialists, of their range. Commercial harvests in and ravens also successfully prey on ringed seals may be at a disadvantage in the Sea of Okhotsk and predator-control them. Avian predation is facilitated not competition with generalists in an ice- harvests in the Baltic Sea and Lake only by lack of sufficient snow cover but diminished Arctic. Prey biomass may be Ladoga caused population declines in also by conditions favoring influxes of reduced as a consequence of increased the past, but have since been restricted. birds. Lydersen and Smith (1989) freshwater input and loss of sea ice Although subsistence harvest of the pointed out that the small size of habitat for amphipods and copepods. Arctic subspecies is currently newborn ringed seals, coupled with On the other hand, overall pelagic substantial in some regions, harvest their prolonged nursing period, make productivity may increase. levels presently seem sustainable. them vulnerable to predation by birds Climate change is likely to alter patterns and likely set a southern limit to their Summary of Factor A Analysis of subsistence harvest of marine distribution. mammals by changing their local Climate models consistently project densities or distributions in relation to Ringed seals and bearded seals are the overall diminishing sea ice and snow hunting communities. Predictions of the primary prey of polar bears. Polar bear cover at least through the current impacts of climate change on predation on ringed seals is most century, with regional variation in the subsistence hunting pressure are successful in moving offshore ice, often timing and severity of those losses. constrained by the complexity of along floe edges and rarely in ice-free Increasing atmospheric concentrations interacting variables and imprecision of waters. Polar bears also successfully of greenhouse gases, including CO2, will climate and sea ice models at small hunt ringed seals on stable shorefast ice drive climate warming and increase scales. Accurate information on both by catching animals when they surface acidification of the ringed seal’s ocean harvest levels and species’ abundance to breathe and when they occupy lairs. and lake habitats. The impact of ocean and trends will be needed in order to Hammill and Smith (1991) further noted warming and acidification on ringed assess the future impacts of hunting as that polar bear predation on ringed seal seals is expected to be primarily through well as to respond appropriately to pups increased 4-fold in a year when changes in community composition. potential climate-induced changes in average snow depths in their study area The precise extent and timing of these populations. Recreational, scientific, decreased from 23 to 10 cm. They changes is uncertain, yet the overall and educational uses of ringed seals are concluded that while a high proportion trend is clear: Ringed seals will face an minimal and are not expected to of pups born each year are lost to increasing degree of habitat increase significantly in the foreseeable predation, ‘‘without the protection modification through the foreseeable future. We conclude that there is no provided by the subnivean lair, pup future. evidence that overutilization of ringed mortality would be much higher.’’ Diminishing ice and snow cover are seals is occurring at present. The distribution of Arctic foxes the greatest challenges to persistence of C. Diseases, Parasites, and Predation broadly overlaps with that of Arctic ringed seals. Arctic foxes prey on all of the ringed seal subspecies. While Ringed seals have co-evolved with newborn seals by tunneling into the winter precipitation is forecasted to numerous parasites and diseases, and birth lairs. The range of the red fox increase in a warming Arctic, the those relationships are presumed to be overlaps with that of the Okhotsk, duration of ice cover is projected to be stable. Evidence of distemper virus, for Baltic, and Ladoga subspecies, and on substantially reduced, and the net effect example, has been reported in Arctic rare occasion red foxes also prey on will be lower snow accumulation on the ringed seals, but there is no evidence of newborn ringed seals in lairs. ice. Within the century, snow cover population-level impacts to ringed seal adequate for the formation and abundance or productivity. After the High rates of predation on ringed seal occupation of birth lairs is forecasted to proposed listing rule was published, the pups have been associated with occur in only parts of the Canadian occurrence of an elevated number of anomalous weather events that caused Arctic Archipelago, a portion of the sick or dead ringed seals in the Arctic subnivean lairs to collapse or melt central Arctic, and a few small isolated and Bering Strait regions of Alaska before pups were weaned. Thus, areas in other regions. Without the beginning in July 2011 led to the declining snow depths and duration of protection of lairs, ringed seals, declaration of an unusual mortality snow cover during the period when especially newborns, are vulnerable to event (UME) by NMFS under the Marine ringed seal pups are born and nursed freezing and predation. We conclude Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) on can be expected to lead to increased that the ongoing and projected changes December 20, 2011. The underlying predation on ringed seal pups. We in sea ice habitat pose significant threats cause of this UME is unknown and conclude that the threat posed to ringed to the persistence of each of the five remains under focused expert seals by predation is currently subspecies of the ringed seal and are investigation. Abiotic and biotic moderate, but predation risk is expected likely to curtail the range of the species changes to ringed seal habitat to increase as snow and sea ice substantially within the foreseeable potentially could lead to exposure to conditions change with a warming future. new pathogens or new levels of climate.

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D. Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory Reduced productivity in the Baltic or brought into production. Shell plans Mechanisms ringed seal in recent decades resulted to drill up to three wells during 2012 at from impaired fertility that was several locations in the northeast As noted above in the discussion of associated with pollutants. High levels Chukchi Sea. Shell also plans to drill Factor A, a primary concern about the of DDT (dichloro-diphenyl- offshore in the Beaufort Sea in 2012 conservation status of the ringed seal trichloroethane) and PCBs near Camden Bay. No offshore oil or gas stems from the likelihood that its sea ice (polychlorinated biphenyls) were found fields are currently in development or habitat has been modified by the in Baltic (Bothnian Bay) ringed seals in production in the Bering Sea. warming climate and, more so, that the the 1960s and 1970s, and PCB levels About 80 percent of the oil and 99 scientific consensus projections are for were correlated with reproductive percent of the gas produced in the continued and perhaps accelerated failure. More recently, PFOSs Arctic comes from Russia (AMAP, warming in the foreseeable future (perfluorooctane sulfonate; a 2007). With over 75 percent of known combined with modification of habitat perfluorinated contaminant or PFC) Arctic oil, over 90 percent of known by ocean acidification. Current were reported as 15 times greater in Arctic gas, and vast estimates of mechanisms do not effectively regulate Baltic ringed seals than in Arctic ringed undiscovered oil and gas reserves, GHG emissions, which are contributing seals. Russia will likely continue to be the to global climate change and associated Present and future impacts of dominant producer of Arctic oil and gas modifications to ringed seal habitat. The contaminants on ringed seal in the future (AMAP, 2007). Oil and gas projections we used to assess risks from populations warrant further study. developments in the Kara and Barents GHG emissions were based on the Climate change has the potential to Seas began in 1992, and large-scale assumption that no new regulation will increase the transport of pollutants from production activities were initiated take place (the underlying IPCC lower latitudes to the Arctic, during 1998–2000. Oil and gas emissions scenarios were all ‘‘non- highlighting the importance of production activities are expected to mitigated’’ scenarios). Therefore, the continued monitoring of ringed seal grow in the western Siberian provinces inadequacy of mechanisms to regulate contaminant levels. The BRT considered and Kara and Barents Seas in the future. GHG emissions is already included in the potential threat posed to ringed seals Recently there has also been renewed our risk assessment, and contributes to from contaminants as of low to interest in the Russian Chukchi Sea, as the risks posed to ringed seals by these moderate significance, with the least new evidence emerges to support the emissions. threat identified for Arctic ringed seals notion that the region may contain Based on questionnaire and interview and the greatest for Baltic ringed seals. world-class oil and gas reserves. In the Sea of Okhotsk, oil and natural gas data obtained from fishermen at Lake Oil and Gas Activities Ladoga, Verevkin et al. (2006, 2010) operations are active off the concluded that annual bycatch mortality Extensive oil and gas reserves coupled northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island, of Ladoga ringed seals has been with rising global demand make it very and future developments are planned in substantial in recent years and that likely that oil and gas development the western Kamchatka and Magadan mitigation measures are needed. Thus activity will increase throughout the regions. inadequacy of existing mechanisms to U.S. Arctic and internationally in the A major project underway in the regulate bycatch of Ladoga ringed seals future. Climate change is expected to Baltic Sea is the Nord Stream 1,200-km is contributing to the severity of the enhance marine access to offshore oil gas line, which will be the longest threat posed by fisheries interactions and gas reserves by reducing sea ice subsea natural gas pipeline in the world. with that subspecies, and compounds extent, thickness, and seasonal duration, Concerns have been expressed about the the effects of threats induced by climate thereby improving ship access to these potential disturbance of World War II change discussed above. resources around the margins of the landmines and chemical toxins in the Arctic Basin. Oil and gas exploration, sediment during construction. There are E. Other Natural or Manmade Factors development, and production activities also concerns about potential leaks and Affecting the Species’ Continued include, but are not limited to: Seismic spills from the pipeline and impacts on Existence surveys; exploratory, delineation, and the Baltic Sea marine environment once Pollution and Contaminants production drilling operations; the pipeline is operational. Circulation construction of artificial islands, of waters in the Baltic Sea is limited and Contaminants research on ringed seals causeways, ice roads, shore-based any contaminants may not be flushed is extensive and has been conducted in facilities, and pipelines; and vessel and efficiently. most parts of the species’ range (with aircraft operations. These activities have Large oil spills or blowouts are the exception of the Sea of Okhotsk), the potential to affect ringed seals considered to be the greatest threat of oil particularly throughout the Arctic primarily through noise, physical and gas exploration activities in the environment where ringed seals are an disturbance, and pollution, particularly marine environment. In contrast to important diet item in coastal human in the event of a large oil spill or spills on land, large spills at sea are communities. Pollutants such as blowout. difficult to contain and may spread over organochlorine (OC) compounds and Within the range of the Arctic ringed hundreds or thousands of kilometers. heavy metals have been found in all of seal, offshore oil and gas exploration Responding to a spill in the Arctic the subspecies of ringed seal (with the and production activities are currently environment would be particularly exception of the Okhotsk ringed seal). underway in the United States, Canada, challenging. The U.S. Arctic has very The variety, sources, and transport Greenland, Norway, and Russia. In the little infrastructure to support oil spill mechanisms of contaminants vary United States, oil and gas activities have response, with few roads and no major across ringed seal ecosystems. Statistical been conducted off the coast of Alaska port facilities. Reaching a spill site and analysis of OC compounds in marine since the 1970s, with most of the responding effectively would be mammals has shown that, for most OCs, activity occurring in the Beaufort Sea. especially difficult, if not impossible, in the European Arctic is more Although five exploratory wells have winter when weather can be severe and contaminated than the Canadian and previously been drilled in the Chukchi daylight extremely limited. Oil spills U.S. Arctic. Sea, no oil fields have been developed under ice would be the most

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challenging because industry and annual average of 0.46 Arctic ringed seal For indirect interactions, we note that government have little experience mortalities incidental to commercial commercial fisheries target a number of containing or effectively recovering fishing operations. NAMMCO (2002) known ringed seal prey species such as spilled oil in such conditions. The stated that in the North Atlantic region walleye pollock (Theragra difficulties experienced in stopping and Arctic ringed seals are seldom caught in chalcogramma), Pacific cod, herring containing the blowout at the Deepwater fishing gear because their distribution (Clupea sp.), and capelin. These Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico, does not coincide with intensive fisheries may affect ringed seals where environmental conditions and fisheries in most areas. We could find indirectly through reductions in prey response preparedness are no information regarding ringed seal biomass and through other fishing comparatively good (but waters are bycatch levels in the Sea of Okhotsk; mediated changes in ringed seal prey much deeper than the Arctic continental however, given the intensive levels of species. shelf), point toward even greater commercial fishing that occur in this Shipping challenges of attempting a similar feat in sea, bycatch of ringed seals likely occurs a much more environmentally severe there. The BRT considered the threat The reduction in Arctic sea ice that and geographically remote location. posed to Okhotsk ringed seals from has occurred in recent years has Although planning, management, and physical disturbance associated with the renewed interest in using the Arctic use of best practices can help reduce combined factors of oil and gas Ocean as a potential waterway for risks and impacts, the history of oil and development, shipping, and commercial coastal, regional, and trans-Arctic gas activities indicates that accidents fisheries moderately significant. marine operations. Climate models predict that the warming trend in the cannot be eliminated. Tanker spills, Drowning in fishing gear has been Arctic will accelerate, causing the ice to pipeline leaks, and oil blowouts are reported as one of the most significant begin melting earlier in the spring and likely to occur in the future, even under mortality factors for seals in the Baltic resume freezing later in the fall, the most stringent regulatory and safety Sea, especially for young seals. There resulting in an expansion of potential systems. In the Sea of Okhotsk, an are no reliable estimates of seal bycatch shipping routes and lengthening the accident at an oil production complex in this sea, and existing estimates are resulted in a large (3.5-ton) spill in potential navigation season. known to be low in many areas, making The most significant risk posed by 1999, and in winter 2009, an unknown risk assessment difficult. Based on quantity of oil associated with a tanker shipping activities in the Arctic is the monitoring of 5 percent of the accidental or illegal discharge of oil or fouled 3 km of coastline and hundreds commercial fishing effort in the of birds in Aniva Bay (Sakhalin Island). other toxic substances carried by ships, Swedish coastal fisheries, bycatch of In the Arctic, a blowout at an offshore due to their immediate and potentially Baltic ringed seals was estimated at 50 platform in the Ekofisk oil field in the long-term effects on individual animals, seals in 2004. In Finland, it was North Sea in 1977 released more than populations, food webs, and the estimated that about 70 Baltic ringed 200,000 barrels of oil. environment. Shipping activities can Researchers have suggested that pups seals were caught by fishing gear also affect ringed seals directly through of ice-associated seals may be annually during the period 1997–1999. noise and physical disturbance (e.g., particularly vulnerable to fouling of There are no estimates of seal bycatch icebreaking vessels), as well as their dense lanugo coats. Adults, from Lithuanian, Estonian, or Russian indirectly through ship emissions and juveniles, and weaned young of the year waters of the Baltic. It has been the possibility of introducing exotic rely on blubber for insulation, so effects suggested that decreases in the use of species that may affect ringed seal food of oiling on their thermoregulation are the most harmful types of nets (i.e., webs. expected to be minimal. A variety of gillnets and unprotected trap nets), Current and future shipping activities other acute effects of oil exposure have along with the development of seal- in the Arctic pose varying levels of been shown to reduce seals’ health and proof fishing gear, may have resulted in threats to ringed seals depending on the possibly survival. Direct ingestion of oil, a decline in Baltic ringed seal bycatch type and intensity of the shipping ingestion of contaminated prey, or (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, activity and its degree of spatial and inhalation of hydrocarbon vapors can 2007). temporal overlap with ringed seal cause serious health effects including It has been estimated that 200–400 habitats. These factors are inherently death. Ladoga ringed seals died annually in difficult to predict, making threat The BRT considered the threat posed fishing gear during the late 1980s and assessment highly uncertain. However, to ringed seals by disturbance, injury, or early 1990s. Fishing patterns reportedly given what is currently known about mortality from oil spills, and/or other changed since then, and in the late ringed seal populations and shipping discharges, as of low to moderate 1990s fishing was not regarded to be a activity in the Arctic, some general significance, with the greatest threat threat to Ladoga ringed seal assessments can be made. Arctic ringed identified for Okhotsk and Baltic ringed populations, although it was suggested seal densities are variable and depend seals. that it could become so should market on many factors; however, they are often conditions improve (Sipila¨ and reported to be widely distributed in Commercial Fisheries Interactions and Hyva¨rinen, 1998). Based on interviews relatively low densities and rarely Bycatch with fishermen in Lake Ladoga, congregate in large numbers. This may Commercial fisheries may affect Verevkin et al. (2006) reported that at help mitigate the risks of more localized ringed seals through direct interactions least 483 Ladoga ringed seals were shipping threats (e.g., oil spills or (i.e., incidental take or bycatch) and killed in fishing gear in 2003, even physical disturbance), since the impacts indirectly through competition for prey though official records only recorded 60 from such events would be less likely to resources and other impacts on prey cases of bycatch. Further, Verevkin et al. affect large numbers of seals. The fact populations. NMFS has access to (2010) reported questionnaire responses that nearly all shipping activity in the estimates of Arctic ringed seal bycatch by fishermen that indicated annual Arctic (with the exception of only for commercial fisheries that bycatch of Ladoga ringed seals caught in icebreaking) purposefully avoids areas operate in Alaska waters. Based on data fishing nets has been substantial in of ice and primarily occurs during the from 2002–2006, there has been an recent years. ice-free or low-ice seasons also helps to

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mitigate the risks associated with being important risks to the continued efforts are necessary to shipping to ringed seals, since they are conservation status of this subspecies. ensure that population-level effects from closely associated with ice at nearly all The threats posed from shipping contaminant exposure do not recur in times of the year. Icebreakers pose activity in the Sea of Okhotsk, Baltic Baltic ringed seals in the future. special risks to ringed seals because Sea, and Lake Ladoga and are largely the Drowning of seals in fishing gear and they are capable of operating year-round same as they are for the Arctic. Two disturbance by human activities are in all but the heaviest ice conditions obvious but important distinctions conservation concerns for ringed seals and are often used to escort other types between these regions and the Arctic are in Lake Ladoga and could exacerbate the of vessels (e.g., tankers and bulk that these bodies of water are effects of climate change on this seal carriers) through ice-covered areas. If geographically smaller and more population. Drowning in fishing gear is icebreaking activities increase in the confined than many areas where the also one of the most significant sources Arctic in the future as expected, the Arctic subspecies lives, and they of mortality for ringed seals in the Baltic likelihood of negative impacts (e.g., oil contain much smaller populations of Sea. Although we currently do not have spills, pollution, noise, disturbance, and ringed seals. Therefore, shipping and any data to conclude that these threats habitat alteration) occurring in ice- ringed seals are more likely to overlap are having population-level effects on covered areas where ringed seals occur spatially in these regions, and a single Baltic ringed seals, reported bycatch will likely also increase. accident (e.g., a large oil spill) could mortality in Lake Ladoga appears to Though few details are available potentially impact these smaller pose a significant threat to that regarding shipping levels in the Sea of populations severely. However, the lack subspecies, particularly when combined Okhotsk, resource development over the of specific information on threats and with the effects of climate change on last decade stands out as a likely impacts (now and in the future) makes ringed seal habitat. threat assessment in these regions significant contributor. Relatively high Analysis of Demographic Risks levels of shipping are needed to support uncertain. More information is needed to adequately assess the risks of Threats to a species’ long-term present oil and gas operations. In persistence are manifested addition, large-scale commercial fishing shipping to ringed seals. The BRT considered the threat posed to Okhotsk, demographically as risks to its occurs in many parts of the sea. Winter abundance, productivity, spatial shipping activities in the southern Sea Baltic, and Ladoga ringed seals from physical disturbance associated with the structure and connectivity, and genetic of Okhotsk are expected to increase and ecological diversity. These considerably as oil and gas production combined factors of oil and gas development, shipping, and commercial demographic risks provide the most pushes the development and use of new direct indices or proxies of extinction classes of icebreaking ships, thereby fisheries moderately significant, while also noting that drowning of seals in risk. A species at very low levels of increasing the potential for shipping fishing nets and disturbance from abundance and with few populations accidents and oil spills in the ice- human activities are specific will be less tolerant to environmental covered regions of this sea. conservation concerns for Ladoga ringed variation, catastrophic events, genetic The Baltic Sea is one of the most seals. processes, demographic stochasticity, heavily trafficked shipping areas in the ecological interactions, and other world, with more than 2,000 large ships Summary of Factor E processes. A rate of productivity that is (including about 200 oil tankers) sailing We find that the threats posed by unstable or declining over a long period on its waters on an average day. pollutants, oil and gas activities, of time can indicate poor resiliency to Additionally, ferry lines, fishing boats, fisheries, and shipping do not future environmental change. A species and cruise ships frequent the Baltic Sea. individually or collectively place the that is not widely distributed across a Both the number and size of ships Arctic or Okhotsk subspecies of ringed variety of well-connected habitats is at (especially oil tankers) have grown in seals at risk of becoming endangered in increased risk of extinction due to recent years, and the amount of oil the foreseeable future. We recognize, environmental perturbations, including transported in the Baltic (especially however, that the significance of these catastrophic events. A species that has from the Gulf of Finland) has increased threats would likely increase for lost locally-adapted genetic and significantly since 2000. The risk of oil populations diminished by the effects of ecological diversity may lack the raw exposure for seals living in the Baltic climate change or other threats. resources necessary to exploit a wide Sea is considered to be greatest in the Reduced productivity in the Baltic array of environments and endure short- Gulf of Finland, where oil shipping Sea ringed seal in recent decades and long-term environmental changes. routes pass through ringed seal pupping resulted from impaired fertility that was The key factors limiting the viability areas as well as close to rocks and islets associated with pollutants. We do not of all five ringed seal subspecies are the where seals sometimes haul out. have any information to conclude that forecasted reductions in ice extent and, Icebreaking during the winter is there are currently population-level in particular, depths and duration of considered to be the most significant effects on Baltic ringed seals from snow cover on ice. Early snow melts marine traffic factor for seals in the contaminant exposure. We find that the already are evident in much of the Baltic Sea, especially in the Bothnian threats posed by pollutants, petroleum species’ range. Increasingly late ice Bay. development, commercial fisheries, and formation in autumn is forecasted, Lake Ladoga is connected to the Baltic increased ship traffic do not contributing to expectations of Sea and other bodies of water via a individually or collectively pose a substantial decreases in snow network of rivers and canals that are significant risk to the persistence of the accumulation. The ringed seal’s specific used as waterways to transport people, Baltic ringed seals. We recognize, requirement for habitats with adequate resources, and cargo throughout the however, that the significance of these spring snow cover is manifested in the Baltic region. However, reviews of the threats would likely increase for pups’ low tolerance for exposure to wet, biology and conservation of Ladoga populations diminished by the effects of cold conditions and their vulnerability ringed seals have not identified climate change or other threats. We also to predation. Premature failure of the shipping-related activities (other than note that, particularly given the elevated snow cover has caused high mortality accidental bycatch in fishing gear) as contaminant load in the Baltic Sea, due to freezing and predation. Climate

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warming will result in increasingly necessary steps to reduce threats or However, it should be noted that the early snow melts, exposing vulnerable factors for decline, includes quantifiable IUCN Red List assessment criteria differ ringed seal pups to predators and performance measures for monitoring from the listing criteria provided by the hypothermia. compliance and effectiveness, ESA. The ringed seal is currently The BRT considered the current risks incorporates the principles of adaptive classified as a species of ‘‘Least to the persistence of Arctic, Okhotsk, management, and is likely to improve Concern’’ on the IUCN Red List. The Baltic, and Ladoga ringed seals as low the species’ viability at the time of the Red List assessment notes that, given to moderate, with the Ladoga ringed seal listing determination. the risks posed to the ringed seal by receiving the highest scores. Within the climate change, the conservation status International Conservation Efforts foreseeable future, the BRT judged the of all ringed seal subspecies should be Specifically to Protect Ringed Seals risks to Arctic ringed seal persistence to reassessed within a decade. The be moderate (diversity and abundance) Baltic ringed seals: (1) Some protected European Red List compiles to high (productivity and spatial areas in Sweden, Finland, the Russian assessments of the conservation status structure). As noted above, the impacts Federation, and Estonia include Baltic of European species according to IUCN to Arctic ringed seals may be somewhat ringed seal habitat; (2) the Baltic ringed red listing guidelines. The assessment ameliorated initially if the subspecies’ seal is included in the Red Book of the for the ringed seal currently classifies range retracts northward with sea ice Russian Federation as ‘‘Category 2’’ the Ladoga ringed seal as ‘‘Vulnerable.’’ habitats, but by the end of the century (decreasing abundance), is classified as The Baltic ringed seal is classified as a snow depths are projected to be ‘‘Endangered’’ in the Red Data Book of species of ‘‘Least Concern’’ on the insufficient for lair formation and Estonia, and is listed as ‘‘Near European Red List, with the caveats that maintenance throughout much of the Threatened’’ on the Finnish and population numbers remain low and subspecies’ range, including the Swedish Red Lists; and (3) Helsinki that there are significant conservation potentially retracted northward one. Commission (HELCOM) concerns in some part of the Baltic Sea. The BRT also judged the risks to recommendation 27–28/2 (2006) on Similar to inclusion in national red lists persistence of the Okhotsk and Baltic conservation of seals in the Baltic Sea and red data books, these listings ringed seal in the foreseeable future to established a seal expert group to highlight the conservation status of be moderate (diversity) to high address and coordinate seal listed species and can inform (abundance, productivity, and spatial conservation and management across conservation planning and structure). Okhotsk and Baltic ringed the Baltic Sea region. This expert group prioritization. seals will have limited opportunity to has made progress toward completing a The Convention on the Conservation shift their range northward because the set of related tasks identified in the of European Wildlife and Natural sea ice will retract toward land. HELCOM recommendation, including Habitats (Bern Convention) is a regional Risks to Ladoga ringed seal coordinating development of national treaty on conservation. Current parties persistence within the foreseeable future management plans and developing to the Bern Convention within the range were judged by the BRT to be moderate monitoring programs. The national red of the ringed seal include Norway, (diversity), or high to very high lists and red data books noted above Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. (abundance, productivity, and spatial highlight the conservation status of The agreement calls for signatories to structure). As noted above, Ladoga listed species and can inform provide special protection for fauna ringed seals are a landlocked population conservation planning and species listed in Appendix II (species to that will be unable to shift their range prioritization. be strictly protected) and Appendix III in response to the pronounced Ladoga ringed seals: (1) In May 2009, to the convention (species for which any degradation of ice and snow habitats Ladoga Skerries National Park, which exploitation is to be regulated). The forecasted to occur. will encompass northern and northwest Ladoga ringed seal is listed under Lake Ladoga, was added to the Russian Conservation Efforts Appendix II, and other ringed seals fall Federation’s list of protected areas to be under Appendix III. Hunting of Ladoga When considering the listing of a established; and (2) the Ladoga ringed ringed seals has been prohibited since species, section 4(b)(1)(A) of the ESA seal is included in the Red Data Books 1980, and hunting of Baltic ringed seals requires NMFS to consider efforts by of the Russian Federation, the Leningrad has also been suspended (although any State, foreign nation, or political Region, and Karelia. Finland permitted the harvest of small subdivision of a State or foreign nation International Agreements numbers of ringed seals in the Bothnian to protect the species. Such efforts Bay beginning in 2010). would include measures by Native The International Union for the The provisions of the Council of the American tribes and organizations, local Conservation of Nature and Natural European Union’s Directive 92/43/EEC governments, and private organizations. Resources (IUCN) Red List identifies on the Conservation of Natural Habitats Also, Federal, tribal, state, and foreign and documents those species believed of Wild Fauna and Flora (Habitats recovery actions (16 U.S.C. 1533(f)), and by its reviewers to be most in need of Directive) are intended to promote the Federal consultation requirements (16 conservation attention if global conservation of biodiversity in U.S.C. 1536) constitute conservation extinction rates are to be reduced, and European Union (EU) member measures. In addition to identifying is widely recognized as the most countries. EU members meet the habitat these efforts, under the ESA and our comprehensive, apolitical global conservation requirements of the Policy on the Evaluation of approach for evaluating the directive by designating qualified sites Conservation Efforts (68 FR 15100; conservation status of plant and animal for inclusion in a special conservation March 28, 2003), we must evaluate the species. In order to produce Red Lists of areas network known as Natura 2000. certainty of implementing the threatened species worldwide, the IUCN Current members of the EU within the conservation efforts and the certainty Species Survival Commission draws on range of the ringed seal include Sweden, that the conservation efforts will be a network of scientists and partner Finland, and Estonia. Annex II to the effective on the basis of whether the organizations, which uses a Habitats Directive lists species whose effort or plan establishes specific standardized assessment process to conservation is to be specifically conservation objectives, identifies the determine species’ risks of extinction. considered in designating special

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conservation areas, Annex IV identifies any domestic conservation efforts under snow. The projected decreases in sea species determined to be in need of our Policy on Evaluating Conservation ice, snow cover, and thermal capacity of strict protection, and Annex V identifies Efforts (68 FR 15100; March 28, 2003). birthing lairs will likely lead to species whose exploitation may require NMFS has established a co- decreased pup survival. Thus, within specific management measures to management agreement with the Ice the foreseeable future it is likely that the maintain favorable conservation status. Seal Committee (ISC) to conserve and number of Arctic ringed seals will The Baltic ringed seal is listed in Annex provide co-management of subsistence decline substantially, and they will no II and V, and the Arctic ringed seal is use of ice seals by Alaska Natives. The longer persist in substantial portions of listed in Annex V. Some designated ISC is an Alaska Native Organization their range. We have determined that Natura 2000 sites include Baltic ringed dedicated to conserving seal the Arctic subspecies of the ringed seal seal habitat. populations, habitat, and hunting in is not in danger of extinction throughout In 2005 the International Maritime order to help preserve native cultures all of its range, but is likely to become Organization (IMO) designated the and traditions. The ISC co-manages ice so within the foreseeable future. Baltic Sea Area outside of Russian seals with NMFS by monitoring Therefore, we are listing it as territorial waters as a Particularly subsistence harvest and cooperating on threatened. Sensitive Sea Area (PSSA), which needed research and education Okhotsk subspecies: (1) The best provides a framework under IMO’s programs pertaining to ice seals. available scientific data suggest a International Convention for the NMFS’s National Marine Mammal conservative estimate of 676,000 ringed Prevention of Pollution from Ships Laboratory is engaged in an active seals in the Sea of Okhotsk, apparently (MARPOL 73/78) for developing research program for ringed seals. The reduced from historical numbers. It has internationally agreed upon measures to new information from this research will been estimated that the ringed seal reduce risks posed from maritime be used to enhance our understanding population in the Sea of Okhotsk shipping activities. To date, a maritime of the risk factors affecting ringed seals, numbered more than one million in traffic separation scheme is the sole thereby improving our ability to develop 1955. (2) Before the end of the current protective measure associated with the effective management measures for the century, ice suitable for pupping and Baltic PSSA. Expansion of Russian oil species. nursing is forecasted to be limited to the terminals is contributing to a marked northernmost regions of the Sea of Listing Determinations increase in oil transport in the Baltic Okhotsk, and projections suggest that Sea; however, the Russian Federation We have reviewed the status of the snow cover may already be inadequate has declined to support the Baltic Sea ringed seal, fully considering the best for birth lairs. The Sea of Okhotsk is PSSA designation. scientific and commercial data bounded to the north by land, which HELCOM’s main goal since the available, including the status review will limit the ability of Okhotsk ringed Helsinki convention first entered force report. We have reviewed threats to seals to respond to deteriorating sea ice in 1980 has been to address Baltic Sea these subspecies of the ringed seal, as and snow conditions by shifting their pollution caused by hazardous well as other relevant factors, and range northward. (3) Although some substances and to restore and safeguard considered conservation efforts and Okhotsk ringed seals have been reported the ecology of the Baltic. HELCOM acts special designations for ringed seals by resting on island shores during the ice- as a coordinating body among the nine states and foreign nations. In free season, we are not aware of any countries with coasts along the Baltic consideration of all of the threats and occurrence of ringed seals whelping or Sea. Activities of HELCOM have led to potential threats to ringed seals nursing young on land. (4) The Okhotsk significant reductions in a number of identified above, the assessment of the ringed seal’s pupping and nursing monitored hazardous substances in the risks posed by those threats, the seasons are adapted to the phenology of Baltic Sea. However, pollution caused possible cumulative impacts, and the ice and snow. Decreases in sea ice by hazardous substances continues to uncertainty associated with all of these, habitat suitable for pupping, nursing, pose risks. we draw the following conclusions: and molting will likely lead to declines The Agreement on Cooperation in Arctic subspecies: (1) There are no in abundance and productivity of the Research, Conservation, and specific estimates of population size Okhotsk subspecies. We have Management of Marine Mammals in the available for the Arctic subspecies, but determined that the Okhotsk subspecies North Atlantic (North Atlantic Marine most experts postulate that the of the ringed seal is not in danger of Mammal Commission [NAMMCO]) was population numbers in the millions. (2) extinction throughout its range, but is established in 1992 by a regional The depth and duration of snow cover likely to become so within the agreement among the governments of are forecasted to decrease substantially foreseeable future. Therefore, we are Greenland, Iceland, Norway, and the throughout the range of the Arctic listing it as threatened. Faroe Islands to cooperatively conserve ringed seal. Within this century, snow Baltic subspecies: (1) Current and manage marine mammals in the cover is forecasted to be inadequate for estimates of 10,000 Baltic ringed seals North Atlantic. NAMMCO has provided the formation and occupation of birth suggest that the population has been a forum for the exchange of information lairs over most of the subspecies’ range. significantly reduced from historical and coordination among member (3) Because ringed seals stay with the numbers. It has been estimated that countries on ringed seal research and ice as it annually advances and retreats, about 180,000 ringed seals inhabited the management. the southern edge of the ringed seal’s Baltic Sea in 1900 and that by the 1940s range may initially shift northward. this population had been reduced to Domestic U.S. Conservation Efforts Whether ringed seals will continue to about 25,000. (2) Reduced productivity NMFS is not aware of any formalized move north with retreating ice over the in the Baltic subspecies in recent conservation efforts for ringed seals that deeper, less productive Arctic Basin decades resulted from impaired fertility have yet to be implemented, or which waters and whether the species that associated with pollutants. (3) Dramatic have recently been implemented but they prey on will also move north is reductions in sea ice extent are have yet to show their effectiveness in uncertain. (4) The Arctic ringed seal’s projected by mid-century and beyond in removing threats to the species. pupping and nursing seasons are the Baltic Sea, coupled with declining Therefore, we do not need to evaluate adapted to the phenology of ice and depth and insulating properties of snow

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cover on Baltic Sea ice. The Baltic Sea Significant Portion of the Range other sections of the preamble to this is bounded to the north by land, which Evaluation final rule. Based on our review of the will limit the ability of Baltic ringed Under the ESA and our implementing record, we did not find substantial seals to respond to deteriorating sea ice regulations, a species warrants listing if information indicating that any of the and snow conditions by shifting their it is endangered or threatened threats to the Arctic and Okhotsk range northward. (4) Although Baltic throughout all or a significant portion of subspecies, including those associated ringed seals have been reported resting its range. In our analysis for this final with the changes in sea ice habitat, are on island shores or offshore reefs during rule, we initially evaluated the status of so severe or so concentrated as to the ice-free season, we are not aware of and threats to the Arctic, Okhotsk, and indicate that either subspecies currently any occurrence of ringed seals whelping Baltic subspecies throughout their entire qualifies as endangered within some or nursing young on land. (5) The Baltic ranges. We found that the consequences portion of its range. As described in our ringed seal’s pupping and nursing of habitat change associated with a Listing Determinations, the threats are seasons are adapted to the phenology of warming climate can be expected to such that we concluded that Arctic and ice and snow. The projected substantial manifest throughout the current Okhotsk ringed seals are likely to reductions in sea ice extent and breeding and molting ranges of ringed become endangered within the deteriorating snow conditions are seals, and that the ongoing and foreseeable future. As a result, we find expected to lead to decreased survival of projected changes in sea ice habitat pose that the best available data show that there are no portions of their ranges in pups and a substantial decline in the significant threats to the persistence of which the threats are so concentrated or abundance of the Baltic subspecies. We these subspecies. The magnitude of the acute as to place those portions of the have determined that the Baltic threats posed to the persistence of ranges of either subspecies in danger of subspecies of the ringed seal is not in ringed seals, including from changes in extinction. Because we find that the danger of extinction throughout all its sea ice habitat, are likely to vary to some Arctic and Okhotsk subspecies are not range, but is likely to become so within degree across the range of the species endangered in any portions of their the foreseeable future. Therefore, we are depending on a number of factors, ranges, we need not address the listing it as threatened. including where affected populations question of whether any portions may Ladoga subspecies: (1) The occur. In light of the potential be significant. population size of the ringed seal in differences in the magnitude of the About 75 percent of the Baltic Lake Ladoga is currently estimated at threats to specific areas or populations, population is found in the Gulf of 3,000 to 5,000 seals, a decrease from we evaluated whether the Arctic, Bothnia (Bothnian Bay) in the northern estimates of 20,000 seals reported for Okhotsk, or Baltic subspecies might be Baltic Sea, while considerably smaller the 1930s, and estimates of 5,000 to in danger of extinction in any portions of the population are found in 10,000 seals in the 1960s. (2) Reduced significant portions of their ranges. In the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland (15 ice and snow cover are expected in Lake accordance with our draft policy on percent and 5 percent of Baltic ringed Ladoga within this century based on ‘‘significant portion of its range,’’ our seals, respectively; Ministry of regional projections. As ice and snow first step in this evaluation was to Agriculture and Forestry, 2007). Palo et conditions deteriorate, the landlocked review the entire supporting record for al. (2001) noted that the Baltic Sea population of Ladoga ringed seals will this final determination to ‘‘identify any subspecies has recently been fragmented be unable to respond by shifting its portions of the range[s] of the into these three breeding segments, but range. (3) Although Ladoga ringed seals [subspecies] that warrant further that genetic evidence of the separation have been reported resting on rocks and consideration’’ (76 FR 77002; December is not yet evident. Recent population island shores during the ice-free season, 9, 2011). We evaluated whether increases in the Baltic subspecies have we are not aware of any occurrence of substantial information indicated ‘‘that been attributed entirely to the Gulf of ringed seals whelping or nursing young (i) the portions may be significant Bothnia portion of the population, while on land. (4) The Ladoga ringed seal’s [within the meaning of the draft policy] little growth rate or possible declines pupping and nursing seasons are and (ii) the species [occupying those have been suggested for ringed seals in adapted to the phenology of ice and portions] may be in danger of extinction the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga snow. Reductions in ice and snow are or likely to become so within the (Harkonnen et al., 2008; Karlsson et al., expected to lead to decreased survival of foreseeable future’’ (76 FR 77002; 2008). We conclude that the best pups and a substantial decline in the December 9, 2011). Under the draft information available does not suggest abundance of this subspecies. (5) policy, both considerations must apply that declines in or loss of the Gulf of Ongoing mortality incidental to fishing to warrant listing a species as Finland and/or Gulf of Riga portion(s) activities is also a significant endangered throughout its range based would result in a substantial decline in conservation concern. Based on the upon threats within a portion of the the rest of the subspecies. We find that: substantial threats currently affecting range. In other words, if either (1) there is substantial information Ladoga ringed seals at a significant level consideration does not apply, we would indicating that the Gulf of Bothnia may across the range of this subspecies, the not list a species as endangered based be a significant portion of the Baltic high likelihood that the severity of the solely upon its status within a ringed seal’s range; and (2) the Gulf of impacts of deteriorating snow and ice significant portion of its range. For the Finland and Gulf of Riga are not so conditions will increase for this Arctic and Okhotsk subspecies, we significant that the decline or loss of subspecies in the foreseeable future, and found it more efficient to address the these portions of the range would leave the fact that the subspecies is status question first, whereas for the the remainder of the subspecies in landlocked and will be unable to Baltic subspecies, we found it more danger of extinction, and thus they do respond to habitat loss by dispersing to efficient to address the significance not constitute significant portions of the new habitat, we have determined that question first. Baltic ringed seal’s range. the Ladoga ringed seal is in danger of The consequences of the potential The consequences of the potential extinction throughout all of its range. threats to the Arctic and Okhotsk threats to the Baltic subspecies, Therefore, we are listing it as subspecies, including from changes in including from climate change, have endangered. sea ice habitat, have been addressed in been addressed in other sections of the

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preamble to this final rule. As described 7(a)(2) of the ESA to ensure such actions known, specific activities that will be in our Listing Determinations, the will not jeopardize the continued considered likely to result in violation threats are such that we concluded that existence of the species. We therefore of section 9, as well as activities that Baltic ringed seals are likely to become conclude that it is unlikely that the will not be considered likely to result in endangered within the foreseeable proposed section 4(d) regulations would violation. Because the Ladoga ringed future. We do not have any information provide appreciable conservation seal occurs outside the jurisdiction of that would lead to a different benefits. As a result, we have concluded the United States, we are presently conclusion for ringed seals in the Gulf that the 4(d) regulations are not unaware of any specific activities that of Bothnia. Therefore, we find that the necessary at this time. Such regulations could result in violation of section 9 of Gulf of Bothnia portion of the Baltic could be promulgated at some future the ESA for this subspecies. However, subspecies’ range is not in danger of time if warranted by new information. we note that it is illegal for any person extinction, but is likely to become so Section 7(a)(2) of the ESA requires subject to the jurisdiction of the United within the foreseeable future. Federal agencies to consult with us to States to ‘‘take’’ within the United States ensure that activities they authorize, or upon the high seas, import or export, Prohibitions and Protective Measures fund, or conduct are not likely to deliver, receive, carry, transport, or ship Section 9 of the ESA prohibits the jeopardize the continued existence of a in interstate or foreign commerce in the take of endangered species. The term listed species or a species proposed for course of a commercial activity, or to ‘‘take’’ means to harass, harm, pursue, listing, or to adversely modify critical sell or offer for sale in interstate or hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, habitat or proposed critical habitat. If a foreign commerce, any endangered or collect, or engage in any such Federal action may affect a listed wildlife species. It also is illegal to conduct (16 U.S.C. 1532(19)). In the case species or its critical habitat, the possess, sell, deliver, carry, transport, or of threatened species, ESA section 4(d) responsible Federal agency must enter ship any such wildlife that has been authorizes NMFS to issue regulations it into consultation with us. Examples of taken in violation of the Act. considers necessary and advisable for Federal actions that may affect Arctic the conservation of the species. Such ringed seals include permits and Critical Habitat regulations may include any or all of the authorizations relating to coastal Section 3 of the ESA (16 U.S.C. section 9 prohibitions. These development and habitat alteration, oil 1532(5)(A)) defines critical habitat as: (i) regulations apply to all individuals, and gas development (including seismic specific areas within the geographical organizations, and agencies subject to exploration), toxic waste and other area occupied by the species, at the time U.S. jurisdiction. On December 10, pollutant discharges, and cooperative it is listed in accordance with the ESA, 2010, we proposed protective agreements for subsistence harvest. on which are found those physical or regulations pursuant to section 4(d) to For the Ladoga subspecies of the biological features (I) essential to the include all of the prohibitions in section ringed seal that we are listing as conservation of the species and (II) that 9(a)(1) (75 FR 77476) based on a endangered, take will be prohibited may require special management preliminary finding that such measures under section 9 of the ESA. Sections considerations or protection; and (ii) were necessary and advisable for the 10(a)(1)(A) and (B) of the ESA provide specific areas outside the geographical conservation of the threatened us with authority to grant exceptions to area occupied by the species at the time subspecies of the ringed seal. the ESA’s section 9 ‘‘take’’ prohibitions. it is listed upon a determination by the In light of public comments and upon Section 10(a)(1)(A) scientific research Secretary that such areas are essential further review, we are withdrawing the and enhancement permits may be for the conservation of the species. proposed ESA section 4(d) protective issued to entities (Federal and non- Section 3 of the ESA also defines the regulations for ringed seals. We received Federal) for scientific purposes or to terms ‘‘conserve,’’ ‘‘conserving,’’ and comments arguing against adoption of enhance the propagation or survival of ‘‘conservation’’ to mean ‘‘to use and the the 4(d) rule and we have not received a listed species. The type of activities use of all methods and procedures any information, and are not aware of potentially requiring a section which are necessary to bring any any, indicating that the addition of the 10(a)(1)(A) research/enhancement endangered species or threatened ESA section 9 prohibitions would apply permit include scientific research that species to the point at which the to any activities that are currently targets ringed seals. Section 10(a)(1)(B) measures provided pursuant to this unregulated and are having, or have the incidental take permits are required for chapter are no longer necessary.’’ potential to have, significant effects on non-Federal activities that may Section 4(a)(3) of the ESA requires the Arctic, Okhotsk, or Baltic incidentally take a listed species in the that, to the extent practicable and subspecies. Further, the Arctic, course of otherwise lawful activity. determinable, critical habitat be Okhotsk, and Baltic subspecies appear designated concurrently with the listing sufficiently abundant to withstand Identification of Those Activities That of a species. Designation of critical typical year-to-year variation and Would Constitute a Violation of Section habitat must be based on the best natural episodic perturbations in the 9 of the ESA scientific data available, and must take near term. The principal threat to these On July 1, 1994, NMFS and FWS into consideration the economic, subspecies of ringed seals is habitat published a series of policies regarding national security, and other relevant alteration stemming from climate listings under the ESA, including a impacts of specifying any particular area change within the foreseeable future. policy for peer review of scientific data as critical habitat. Once critical habitat This is a long-term threat and the (59 FR 34270) and a policy to identify, is designated, section 7 of the ESA consequences for ringed seals will to the maximum extent possible, those requires Federal agencies to ensure that manifest themselves over the next activities that would or would not they do not fund, authorize, or carry out several decades. Finally, ringed seals constitute a violation of section 9 of the any actions that are likely to destroy or currently benefit from existing ESA (59 FR 34272). The intent of this adversely modify that habitat. This protections under the MMPA, and policy is to increase public awareness of requirement is in addition to the section activities that may take listed species the effect of our ESA listing on proposed 7 requirement that Federal agencies and involve a Federal action will still be and ongoing activities within the ensure their actions do not jeopardize subject to consultation under section species’ range. We identify, to the extent the continued existence of the species.

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In determining what areas qualify as not propose critical habitat for Okhotsk, testimony from 41 people and received critical habitat, 50 CFR 424.12(b) Baltic, or Ladoga ringed seals. written submissions from 12 people. requires that NMFS ‘‘consider those Comments were received from U.S. Public Comments Solicited physical or biological features that are State and Federal Agencies including essential to the conservation of a given To ensure that subsequent rulemaking the Marine Mammal Commission and species including space for individual resulting from this final rule will be as the Alaska Department of Fish and and population growth and for normal accurate and effective as possible, we Game (ADFG); government agencies of behavior; food, water, air, light, are soliciting information from the Canada, Nunavut, and Greenland; minerals, or other nutritional or public, other governmental agencies, Native Organizations such as the Ice physiological requirements; cover or Alaska Natives, the scientific Seal Committee (ISC; Alaska Native co- shelter; sites for breeding, reproduction, community, industry, and any other management organization); and rearing of offspring; and habitats interested parties. Specifically, we environmental groups; industry groups; that are protected from disturbance or request comments and information to and interested individuals. are representative of the historical help us identify: (1) The PCEs or In accordance with our July 1, 1994, geographical and ecological distribution ‘‘essential features’’ of critical habitat for Interagency Cooperative Policy on Peer of a species.’’ The regulations further Arctic ringed seals, and to what extent Review (59 FR 34270), we requested the direct NMFS to ‘‘focus on the principal those features may require special expert opinion of four independent biological or physical constituent management considerations or scientists with expertise in seal biology elements * * * that are essential to the protection; as well as (2) the economic, and/or Arctic sea ice and climate change conservation of the species,’’ and national security, and other relevant regarding the pertinent scientific data specify that the ‘‘known primary attributes within the range of the Arctic and assumptions concerning the constituent elements shall be listed with ringed seal that could be impacted by biological and ecological information the critical habitat description.’’ The critical habitat designation. Although use in the proposed rule. The purpose regulations identify primary constituent the range of the Arctic ringed seal is of the review was to ensure that the best elements (PCEs) as including, but not circumpolar, regulations at 50 CFR biological and commercial information limited to: ‘‘roost sites, nesting grounds, 424.12(h) specify that critical habitat was used in the decision-making spawning sites, feeding sites, seasonal shall not be designated within foreign process, including input of appropriate wetland or dryland, water quality or countries or in other areas outside U.S. experts and specialists. We received jurisdiction. Therefore, we request quantity, host species or plant comments from three of these reviewers. information only on potential areas of pollinator, geological formation, Two of the reviewers questioned the critical habitat within the United States vegetation type, tide, and specific soil magnitude and immediacy of the threats or waters within U.S. jurisdiction. You types.’’ posed to Arctic ringed seals by the may submit this information by any one projected changes in sea ice habitat, in The ESA directs the Secretary of of several methods (see ADDRESSES and particular on-ice snow cover, while the Commerce to consider the economic DATES). Comments and information third reviewer was generally supportive impact, the national security impacts, submitted during the initial comment of the information and analyses and any other relevant impacts from period on the December 10, 2010 underlying the determinations. designating critical habitat, and under proposed rule (75 FR 77476) or during The differences of opinion amongst section 4(b)(2), the Secretary may the comment period on the peer review the peer reviewers, as well as exclude any area from such designation report (77 FR 20773; April 6, 2012) uncertainty in the best available if the benefits of exclusion outweigh should not be resubmitted since they are information regarding the effects of those of inclusion, provided that the already part of the record. climate change, led NMFS to take exclusion will not result in the additional steps to ensure a sound basis Summary of Comments and Responses extinction of the species. At this time, for our final determination on whether we lack the data and information With the publication of the proposed to list ringed seals under the ESA. To necessary to identify and describe PCEs listing determination for the Arctic, better inform our final listing of the habitat of the Arctic ringed seal, Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga subspecies determination and address the as well as the economic consequences of of the ringed seal on December 10, 2010 disagreement regarding the sufficiency designating critical habitat. In the (75 FR 77476), we announced a 60-day or accuracy of the available data proposed rule, we solicited information public comment period that extended relevant to the determination, on on the economic attributes within the through February 8, 2011. We extended December 13, 2011, we extended the range of the Arctic ringed seal that the comment period an additional 45 deadline for the final listing decision by could be impacted by critical habitat days in response to public requests (76 6 months to June 10, 2012 (76 FR designation, as well as the identification FR 6754; February 8, 2011). Also in 77466). Subsequently, we conducted of the PCEs or ‘‘essential features’’ of response to public requests, including special independent peer review of the this habitat and to what extent those from the State of Alaska, we held three sections of the ringed seal status review features may require special public hearings in Alaska in Anchorage, report (Kelly et al., 2010a) related to the management considerations or Barrow, and Nome (76 FR 9733, disagreement. For this special peer protection. However, few substantive February 22, 2011; 76 FR 14882, March review, we recruited two scientists with comments were received in response to 18, 2011). marine mammal expertise and specific this request. We find designation of During the public comment periods knowledge of ringed seals, and two critical habitat for Arctic ringed seals to on the proposed rule we received a total physical scientists with expertise in be not determinable at this time. We of 5,294 comment submissions in the climate change and Arctic sea ice and will propose critical habitat for Arctic form of letters via mail, fax, and snow to review these sections of the ringed seals in a separate rulemaking. electronically through the Federal status review report and provide Because the known distributions of the eRulemaking portal. These included responses to specific review questions. Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga subspecies 5,238 form letter submissions and 56 We received comments from the two of the ringed seal occur outside the other unique submissions. In addition, physical scientists and one of the jurisdiction of the United States, we will at the three public hearings we received marine mammal specialists. We

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consolidated the comments received in proposed rule was published (i.e., (AOGCMs) used for climate, sea ice, and a peer review report that was made Quakenbush et al., 2011) should be snow prediction are not appropriate for available for comment during a 30-day considered, and that this information directly linking to ringed seal habitat or comment period that opened April 6, indicates they are currently doing as for predicting snow on sea ice at a scale 2012 (77 FR 20773). During this public well or better than they have since the that is important for ringed seals. For comment period on the special peer 1960s. The State of Alaska submitted a example, some of these reviewers review we received an additional 15 summary of this information with its commented that the models: (1) Do not comment submissions via fax and comments on the proposed rule, and represent precipitation adequately, electronically through the Federal also subsequently submitted a full copy particularly at a local scale (one eRulemaking portal. of Quakenbush et al. (2011), reviewer stated that it is well known We fully considered all comments commenting that these data indicate that AOGCMs do not adequately predict received from the public and peer Arctic ringed seals are currently precipitation, and two reviewers noted reviewers on the proposed rule in healthy. that some regional models predict developing this final listing of the Response: We agree that data on precipitation poorly); (2) do not account Arctic, Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga ringed seal demography and population for openings in the ice that are large subspecies of the ringed seal. size are limited. None of the published sources of moisture and heat in the Summaries of the substantive public reports (including Kingsley et al., 1985) atmosphere, thus making winter and peer review comments that we provide reliable estimates of total or precipitation prediction problematic; received concerning our proposed range-wide population size. We have and (3) do not account for ice surface listing determination for these taken Quakenbush et al.’s (2011) data roughness caused by deformation in subspecies, and our responses to all of (available at http:// autumn through winter, or wind speeds the significant issues they raise, are alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/ and directions, which are critical to the provided below. Comments of a similar protectedresources/seals/ice.htm) into distribution and accumulation pattern nature were grouped together where consideration in reaching our final of snow on ice. Related comments of appropriate. listing determination, and these data some of these reviewers suggested that Some peer reviewers provided will be useful in future status reviews. increased deformation can be expected feedback of an editorial nature that We note, however, that healthy as ice forms later in the autumn and noted inadvertent minor errors in the individual animals are not inconsistent remains thinner throughout the winter, proposed rule and offered non- with a population facing threats that and that this could actually mean an substantive but clarifying changes to would cause it to become in danger of improvement to Arctic ringed seal wording. We have addressed these extinction in the foreseeable future. For habitat. One of these reviewers pointed editorial comments in this final rule as example, animals sampled from the out that in addition, the projections of appropriate. Because these comments endangered Western DPS of Steller sea future Arctic snow cover are discussed did not result in substantive changes to lions have consistently been found to be in terms of the present climatology of the final rule, we have not detailed them healthy. In the case of ringed seals, snow over sea ice (i.e., increased here. In addition to the specific substantial losses due to predation and precipitation in autumn and spring, and comments detailed below relating to the hypothermia associated with reduced less in winter). This reviewer suggested proposed listing rule, we also received snow cover could not be detected by that snow climatology would be comments expressing general support assessing the health of survivors. In fact, expected to change due to more open for or opposition to the proposed rule survivors might be expected to fare well water later into the winter, which would and comments conveying peer-reviewed for a period of time as a consequence of provide a moisture source for increasing journal articles, technical reports, and reduced competition. references to scientific literature Comment 2: A peer reviewer pulses of snow on sea ice in the autumn regarding threats to the species and its suggested that although the ringed seal and perhaps through winter if the habitat. Unless otherwise noted in our population in the Sea of Okhotsk is atmosphere remained warmer. Several responses below, after thorough review, reported to have been in a state of public comments, including from the we concluded that the additional steady decline for 55 years, there are State of Alaska, Canada’s Department of information received was considered still a substantial number of seals Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), and previously or did not alter our estimated in this population. This Nunavut’s Department of Environment, determinations regarding the status of reviewer noted that it is possible that expressed more general concerns about the four ringed seal subspecies. the perceived decline reflects sampling limitations with the model projections error rather than an actual decline in of snow cover, and some commenters Peer Review Comments abundance. also suggested that the model Comment 1: Four peer reviewers Response: We must base our listing projections should be verified by field commented that the best available data decisions solely on the best scientific observations. on ringed seal demographics and and commercial data available, after In contrast, a third peer reviewer current and past abundance are limited conducting a status review of the commented that the model considered to poor or non-existent. Consequently, species and taking into account efforts in the status review is the best source these reviewers noted that there is to protect the species. Improved available for snow cover projections, considerable uncertainty associated population estimates certainly are and a commenter expressed a similar with these parameters, including in desirable. In the meantime, as discussed view. The commenter also noted that many areas of Canadian waters. In in the proposed rule and detailed in the the snow depth findings of the status addition, one reviewer noted that results status review report, the best available review are now supported by a new of ringed seal surveys reported by information indicates a decline for the snow depth analysis by Hezel et al. Kingsley et al. (1985) were not cited. Okhotsk subspecies from historical (2012) that uses a more advanced suite One of the reviewers also commented numbers. of models from the Coupled Model that new information regarding the Comment 3: Four peer reviewers Intercomparison Project Phase 5 health and status of ringed seals in expressed the view that the atmosphere- (CMIP5; IPCC AR5) and suggested that Alaska that became available after the ocean general circulation models this analysis addresses some of the

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critiques raised in the special peer models projected more snow than Nevertheless, the status review report review. observed. Despite the broad range of indicated that there is already clear Response: The model (CCSM3; IPCC) snow depths among the 10 models over evidence of advancement in the break- that we used to project snow depths the 21st century, the models all agree up date of fast ice and the onset of snow includes the ice-thickness distribution that snow depths will decline melt in several parts of the Arctic (e.g., and therefore accounts for sea ice substantially in the future, similar to the Ferguson et al., 2005; Kelly et al., 2006). deformation as a function of the sea ice CCSM3. Snow depths decline faster in No evidence was found by the BRT or compressive strength (resistance to the models with greater initial depth, so presented by the peer reviewers or other compressive stresses; computed from the spread in the model projections commenters that indicates these trends the potential energy of the ice-thickness declines over time, lending greater are likely to abate or reverse. Early break distribution) and the opening and support for these forecasts. Hezel et al. up and early snow melt dates have closing rates of leads (linear cracks of (2012) discuss that over the 21st clearly been associated with poor open water in the ice) in the ice century, the loss of sea ice as a platform survival of ringed seal young. Therefore, (computed from the ice motion field). to collect snow in autumn and early these trends are likely to result in The model has roughly 2 percent open winter (due to later sea ice formation) reduced productivity, resilience, and water and 10 percent of the area with results in a substantial reduction in the abundance of the Arctic ringed seal ice thickness less than 60 cm in the amount of snow that can accumulate on population, despite the fact that the central Arctic in winter months. These sea ice, the primary concern that was models do not explicitly distinguish fast aspects of the model are well also expressed in the status review ice from pack ice (both of which are documented in Holland et al. (2006). report and the proposed rule. Hezel et important ringed seal habitats). The consequence of resolving open al. (2012) also discuss that their analysis Comment 5: A peer reviewer, as well water and thin ice allows for higher may underestimate future decreases in as Canada’s DFO, noted observations of evaporation rates over these surfaces. snow depths because decreases in regional snow conditions and ringed The model shows a greater rate of autumn and winter sea ice seal pupping that they suggested may evaporation as the sea ice concentration concentrations could result in loss of conflict with the model projections of declines over the 21st century. This drifting snow into leads, and the models snow depths and the 20 cm minimum contributes to higher snowfall rates in also do not account for the effect of snow depth criterion identified for winter (November–March). rainfall in winter and spring on net ringed seal birth lairs. The reviewer Sea ice deformation rates in the snow accumulation and melting. pointed out that based on CCSM3 model CCSM3 indicate the 21st century will We continue to conclude that the best projections presented in the status see increased deformation rates in available information suggests that the review report, average April snow regions where sea ice motion is towards CCSM3 projects snow depth reasonably depths on sea ice for the first decade of the shore, such as north of Greenland well. We note, for example, that snow this century in Hudson Bay appear to be and the Canadian Archipelago. As we depths from the CCSM3 are consistent below 20 cm, which she suggested noted in the proposed rule and the with measured snow in the Arctic implies longer-term reproductive failure status review report, this region is Ocean (Radionov et al., 1997) and in this population than the decline and/ projected to maintain summer sea ice Hudson Bay (Ferguson et al., 2005). The or perhaps decadal cycles suggested by cover during this century longer than resolution of the model projections of the available data. In addition, this any other. Though we agree that there snow is certainly limited, but the reviewer noted that loss of sea ice and may be a greater concentration of CCSM3 and more recent model results snow can vary regionally, and that this deformed ice in some regions where point unequivocally to less snow needs to be taken into consideration in snow may collect, the CCSM3 (and accumulation on the ice throughout the evaluating impacts. A few public other models analyzed by Hezel et al., range of the species. The reviewers/ comments also pointed out what were 2012) also predicts that snow depths commenters did not present—and we believed to be discrepancies in some will decrease on average in this region are not aware of—evidence that snow regions between the model projections within this century. When ice floes accumulation is likely to increase at any of snow depths and local observations, (sheets of floating ice) converge, they scale that would likely be helpful for and expressed the view that a model first must fill in leads between the floes. ringed seal populations responding to that does not agree with current Hence when there is more open water the expected climate warming. conditions should not be used to project in the 21st century and only occasional Comment 4: A peer reviewer future conditions. For example, these converging events, there can be less commented that fast (shorefast) ice comments noted that: (1) Ringed seals rafting and ridging. Therefore, conditions are not considered continue to occupy and reproduce in deformation is not expected to increase adequately in any of the AOGCMs used. the northern Bering Sea, while the in frequency everywhere. For example, This reviewer expressed the opinion model projections suggest that snow the projected deformation rate changes that this is a key problem with the depths are currently below 20 cm in little in the CCSM3 in most of the assessment because a significant amount these areas; and (2) the observed trend Barents Sea and Siberian coastal of Arctic ringed seal habitat is related to in annual snowfall accumulation since regions. fast ice, and fast ice zones will also be the 1980s in the vicinity of Barrow As noted by a commenter, recently, less affected than marginal ice zones. shows a clear upward trend, with levels Hezel et al. (2012) considered historical Response: The sea ice dynamical similar to or exceeding those recorded and 21st century snow depth changes schemes used in AOGCMs (including during previous periods when ringed on Arctic sea ice using 10 models from the CCSM3) have regions of very slow seals successfully maintained lairs. the CMIP5 that had snow depth data moving ice, though not perfectly rigid. Response: The models should be available. The model projections were These regions exhibit little deformation interpreted as indicating trends in compared with existing observations, and lead openings in AOGCMs. NMFS conditions when averaged over large and according to Hezel et al. (2012), the did not use AOGCMs to estimate areas. There may well be local or model projections were on average changes to the fast ice area. Instead, we regional variation sufficient to produce about 10 percent below observations, used AOGCMs to estimate changes to locally different trends. A single model but about one-third of the individual snow depth and sea ice area. is prone to large errors on the scale of

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a few hundred kilometers. For example, snow should be a high priority for future throughout all or a significant the CCSM3 has too much sea ice area in development. portion of its range (threatened) based the Sea of Okhotsk and in the Labrador Response: We agree with this on the best scientific and commercial Sea. On the scale of the Northern recommendation. data available. While we may consider Hemisphere, the errors across these Comment 9: A peer reviewer the assessment processes of other regions cancel somewhat. Another expressed the view that climate model scientists (i.e., IUCN; Walsh, 2008), we appropriate use of a model is to evaluate predictions should not be considered must make a determination as to agreement across regions. Although the beyond mid-century because they rely whether a species meets the definition rate of change varies by region, the on assumptions about future policy of threatened or endangered based upon CCSM3 has snow depth decreasing decisions that will affect GHG emissions an assessment of the threats according everywhere, which lends support for the and are thus highly speculative. Related to section 4 of the ESA. We have done projected direction of future change. public comments, including from the so in this rule, using a threat-specific Comment 6: A peer reviewer State of Alaska, noted that NMFS’s approach to the ‘‘foreseeable future’’ as expressed the opinion that insufficient recent ESA listing determination for the discussed below and in the proposed consideration is given to the greater role ribbon seal and a subsequent court listing rule. that the Arctic Archipelago will likely decision concluded that projections of In the December 30, 2008, ribbon seal play as an ice retention zone over the climate scenarios beyond 2050 are too listing decision (73 FR 79822) the coming decades. heavily dependent on socioeconomic horizon of the foreseeable future was Response: The proposed rule noted assumptions and are therefore too determined to be the year 2050. The that the Arctic Archipelago is predicted divergent for reliable use in assessing reasons for limiting the review to 2050 to become an ice refuge through the end threats to the species. Two reviewers included the difficulty in incorporating of this century. Indeed, the Archipelago and several commenters expressed the the increased divergence and ‘‘will likely play’’ a ‘‘greater role’’ in opinion that trying to predict the uncertainty in future emissions ringed seal habitat ‘‘over the coming response of seals to environmental scenarios beyond this time, as well as decades,’’ but not because habitat will change beyond mid-century increases the lack of data for threats other than improve there (snow accumulation, for the uncertainty unreasonably. A those related to climate change beyond example, is projected to decline). reviewer and several public comments 2050, and that the uncertainty inherent Rather, the Archipelago’s increased role also pointed out that assessing impacts in assessing ribbon seal responses to will reflect greater losses of ice and to ringed seals from climate change threats increased as the analysis snow elsewhere in the Arctic. In other through the end of this century is extended farther into the future. By words, the Archipelago is projected to inconsistent with: (1) Other recent ESA contrast, in our more recent analyses for be the last possible remnant of suitable determinations for Arctic species, such spotted, ringed, and bearded seals, we habitat, although we do not know how as ribbon seal and polar bear, that did not identify a single specific time as suitable or for how long. considered species responses through the foreseeable future. Rather, we Comment 7: A peer reviewer mid-century; (2) the IUCN red list addressed the foreseeable future based expressed the opinion that use of process, which uses a timeframe of three on the available data for each respective temperatures as a proxy for projecting generation lengths; and (3) the mid- threat. This approach better reflects real sea ice conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk century timeframe considered to conditions in that some threats (e.g., appears problematic given that: (1) The evaluate environmental responses of disease outbreaks) appear more climate models did not perform marine mammals to climate change in a randomly through time and are satisfactorily at projecting sea ice, and special issue (March 2008) of the journal therefore difficult to predict, whereas sea ice extent is strongly controlled by Ecological Applications (Walsh, 2008). other threats (climate change) evince temperature; and (2) temperature itself A few commenters expressed the documented trends supported by is strongly controlled by sea ice opinion that the altered approach is paleoclimatic data from which conditions. significant because the listing reasonably accurate predictions can be Response: The decision to use determinations are wholly dependent made farther into the future. Thus, the temperature as an indicator for the upon NMFS’s use of a 100-year time period covered for what is presence of ice is a geographic size foreseeable future. Several commenters reasonably foreseeable for one threat issue. While the climate models’ grid expressed the opinion that inadequate may not be the same for another. The size is too coarse to develop full sea ice justification was provided for NMFS’s approach is also consistent with the physics for the Sea of Okhotsk, these use of a 100-year foreseeable future. memorandum issued by the Department models are able to resolve temperature, Many of these commenters suggested of Interior, Office of the Solicitor, which is mostly controlled by large- that the best scientific data support a regarding the meaning of the term scale weather patterns on the order of ‘‘foreseeable future’’ time frame of no ‘‘foreseeable future’’ (Opinion M–37021; 500 km or more. As the reviewer notes, more than 50 years, and some January 16, 2009). In consideration of sea ice extent is strongly controlled by commenters such as the State of Alaska this modified threat-specific approach, temperature; this is especially true for suggested a shorter time horizon of no NMFS initiated a new status review of smaller bodies of water relative to the more than 20 years. In contrast, another the ribbon seal on December 13, 2011 grid size of available models. Thus, peer reviewer and some commenters (76 FR 77467). whether the whole geographic region expressed support for use of climate As discussed in the proposed listing around the Sea of Okhotsk is above or model projections through the end of rule, the analysis and synthesis of below the freezing point of sea water the 21st century. information presented in the IPCC’s should be a reasonable indicator of the Response: The ESA requires us to AR4 represents the scientific consensus presence or absence of sea ice. make a decision as to whether the view on the causes and future of climate Comment 8: A peer reviewer species under consideration is in danger change. The IPCC’s AR4 used state-of- suggested that climate models capable of extinction throughout all or a the-art AOGCMs under six ‘‘marker’’ of adequately capturing fast ice significant portion of its range scenarios from the Special Report on formation, the physics of snow (endangered), or is likely to become Emissions Scenarios (SRES; IPCC, 2000) precipitation, and the catchment of endangered within the foreseeable to develop climate projections under

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clearly stated assumptions about the IPCC model suite represents a demonstrate adaptive responses. The socioeconomic factors that could consensus view, there is relatively little resilience and adaptability of ringed influence the emissions. Conditional on uncertainty that warming will continue. seals was also noted in several public each scenario, the best estimate and Because sea ice production and comments, including those of Canada’s likely range of emissions were projected persistence is related to air temperature DFO, Nunavut’s Department of through the end of the 21st century. In through well-known physical processes, Environment, and Greenland’s our review of the status of the ringed the expectation is also that loss of sea Department of Fishing, Hunting, and seal, we considered model projections ice and reduced snow cover will Agriculture (DFHA). In addition, a of sea ice developed using the A1B continue throughout the 21st century. related public comment expressed the scenario, a medium ‘‘business-as-usual’’ Thus, the more recent inclusion of view that the determination appears to emissions scenario, as well the A2 projections out to the year 2100 reflects contradict NMFS’s emphasis in its scenario, a high emissions scenario, to NMFS’s intention to use the best and recent ESA listing determinations for represent a significant range of most current data and analytical ribbon and spotted seals on the ability variability in future emissions. approaches available. AOGCM of ice seals to adapt to declines in sea We also note that the SRES scenarios projections consistently show continued ice. do not assume implementation of reductions in ice extent and multi-year Response: Presumably the reviewers additional climate initiatives beyond ice (ice that has survived at least one are referring to phenotypic plasticity, current mitigation policies. This is summer melt season) throughout the which is the ability of an individual consistent with consideration of 21st century (e.g., Holland et al., 2006; genotype (genetic composition) to ‘‘existing’’ regulatory mechanisms in Zhang and Walsh, 2006; Overland and produce multiple phenotypes our analysis under ESA listing Factor D. Wang, 2007), albeit with a spread among (observable characteristics or traits) in It is also consistent with our Policy on the models in the projected reductions. response to its environment. Plasticity Evaluating Conservation Efforts (68 FR In addition, as discussed by Douglas in the timing of ringed seal reproduction 15100; March 28, 2003), which requires (2010), the observed rate of Arctic sea and molting is not established. More that in making listing decisions we ice loss has been reported as greater importantly, the BRT would predict consider only formalized conservation than the collective projections of most population reductions as habitat efforts that are sufficiently certain to be IPCC-recognized AOGCMs (e.g., Stroeve changes (i.e., depth and duration of ice implemented and effective. et al., 2007; Wang and Overland, 2009), and especially snow cover decreases) The model projections of global suggesting that the projections of sea ice require changes in the timing of warming (defined as the expected global declines within this century may in fact reproduction and molting, decreased change in surface air temperature) out to be conservative. nursing periods, changes in migration, about 2040–2050 are primarily due to We concluded that in this review of use of alternative haul-out substrates, emissions that have already occurred the status of the ringed seal, the climate and changes in diet. If the reviewers are and those that will occur over the next projections in the IPCC’s AR4, as well arguing that ringed seal populations decade. Thus conditions projected to as the scientific papers used in this might persist in the face of such mid-century are less sensitive to report or resulting from this report, changes, we agree. If the reviewers are assumed future emissions scenarios. For represent the best scientific and suggesting that ringed seal populations the second half of the 21st century, commercial data available to inform our would not be expected to decline however, the choice of an emissions assessment of the potential impacts significantly in the face of such changes, scenario becomes the major source of from climate change. In our risk we disagree. variation among climate projections. As assessment for ringed seals, we therefore Comment 11: A peer reviewer noted above, in our 2008 listing considered the full 21st century commented that regional variation in decision for ribbon seal, the foreseeable projections to analyze the threats the minimum snow depth required for future was determined to be the year stemming from climate change. We Arctic ringed seal lair construction and 2050. The identification of mid-century continue to recognize that the farther maintenance is an important as the foreseeable future took into into the future the analysis extends, the consideration, and noted that the consideration the approach taken by greater the inherent uncertainty, and we ambient temperatures and primary FWS in conducting its status review of incorporated that consideration into our predator in a particular region may the polar bear under the ESA, and the assessments of the threats and the influence the minimum snow drift IPCC assertion that GHG levels are species’ responses to the threats. depth needed for birth lair formation expected to increase in a manner that is Comment 10: Three peer reviewers and maintenance. This reviewer largely independent of assumed expressed the opinion that the potential discussed that ringed seal birth lairs emissions scenarios until about the for ringed seals to modify their behavior have been successfully constructed in middle of the 21st century, after which in response to climate conditions is drifts shallower than 45 cm, with the emissions scenarios become underestimated. These reviewers corresponding snow depths on flat ice increasingly influential. suggested that plasticity in ringed seal of less than 20 cm, in some parts of the Subsequently, in the listing analyses life-history activities includes subspecies’ range, and also noted how for spotted, ringed, and bearded seals, variability in timing of reproduction and difficult it is to measure snow depth and we noted that although projections of molting relative to changes in the ice how poor the data coverage is across GHGs become increasingly uncertain and snow cover season; the ability to various parts of the Arctic ringed seal’s and subject to assumed emissions survive slightly shortened nursing range. A commenter expressed the scenarios in the latter half of the 21st periods; and the ability to migrate over opinion that given the reviewer’s century, projections of air temperatures long distances, to use alternative emphasis on regional variation, 20 cm consistently indicate that warming will platforms to haul out on, and to use average snow depth might not be continue throughout the century. alternative food resources. One reviewer adequate in many regions. This Although the magnitude of the warming noted that changes in Ladoga and commenter also noted that Ferguson et depends somewhat on the assumed Saimaa seal reproductive behavior in al. (2005) found a minimum of 32 cm emissions scenario, the trend is clear recent history (e.g., increased use of average snow depth was needed for lairs and unidirectional. To the extent that shorelines for lair construction) also in western Hudson Bay.

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Response: We recognize that there is seals would be prohibitively difficult Comment 14: A peer reviewer some uncertainty in measurement of and expensive to acquire. Therefore, it suggested that the climate model snow depth and in identifying a is critical and required by the ESA to projections of snow cover indicate it is threshold depth (measured as the make use of existing data, which highly likely sufficient snow will be average accumulation of snow on flat include observations from years or short available to Arctic ringed seals in the ice) for adequate recruitment of ringed periods of extreme conditions, as foreseeable future during the key seals. The minimum adequate snow analogs for projected future trends. As months when reproduction is likely to depth is unlikely to be a sharp the reviewer noted, it is important to occur. threshold, so that there will no doubt be keep in mind possible limitations of this Response: As discussed in the many cases in which successful lairs approach, including the geographic and preamble to the proposed rule, contrary have been created and maintained in temporal contexts. Although several of to this reviewer’s suggestion, by the end snow shallower than the threshold, and the key studies relating ringed seal vital of the century, April snow cover is also many cases where ringed seals have rates to environmental conditions do projected to become inadequate for the succumbed to predation or exposure in come from southern parts of the species’ formation and occupation of ringed seal lairs made in deeper snow. Also, there distribution, the conditions encountered birth lairs over much of the Arctic may be regional differences in this in those studies did not exceed the ringed seal’s range. threshold depth, though the examples values for temperatures, minimum snow Comment 15: A peer reviewer that were cited in the status review depths, and ice break-up dates that are commented that the increasing report and the proposed rule, and used anticipated in the coming decades probability of spring precipitation to estimate the snow depth threshold, throughout most of the Arctic ringed coming in the form of rain during the included documentation of predation by seal’s range. critical birth lair period (i.e., April) is of particular concern. bears, foxes, and birds. However, our Comment 13: A peer reviewer Response: This concern (i.e., potential conclusions were based primarily on the suggested that the assumption that for spring rain to damage lairs) was expectation that snow depths will inadequate snow depths and warmer decrease substantially in the coming identified in the preamble to the temperatures will cause high pup proposed rule and was acknowledged decades, and that poor survival of young mortality due to the loss of thermal seals has already been documented in and considered by the BRT in its risk protection is based on very limited data. assessment (see Kelly et al., 2010a). We recent years with early break-up or This reviewer also commented that onset of snow melt. No compelling note that Hezel et al. (2012) reported a ringed seal pups may not need lairs for projected increase in rainfall in April evidence was received during the peer thermal protection to the same degree as reviews and public comment periods to and May through the end of this temperatures warm, which may be why century. indicate that these impacts are likely to ringed seals successfully pup without abate or reverse, or that they are Comment 16: One of the peer lairs in the Sea of Okhotsk. Another reviewers expressed the opinion there expected to be isolated to particular reviewer commented that the thermal regions. We discussed in the preamble should be more focus on the seasonal benefit of lairs appears secondary to thresholds and types of ice that are to the proposed rule that the best predator avoidance. A related public available estimate of the minimum thought to be important for ringed seals, comment noted that some data on seal average snow depth (on flat ice) for the as some thresholds are likely to be more pup mortality due to hypothermia (i.e., formation of birthing lairs is at least 20– critical than others. This reviewer Hammill and Smith, 1991) suggest that 30 cm, and we considered areas suggested this type of synthesis is seal pups are largely unaffected by the projected to have less than 20 cm needed to evaluate how important snow depth of subnivean lairs, and are average snow depth in April to be changing ice extent, thickness, and in fact much more tolerant of inadequate for the formation of ringed presence of multiyear ice will be in the temperature extremes than suggested. seal birth lairs. However, the conclusion future. For example, a change in ice that snow habitat will decline Response: Substantial data indicate thickness in core Arctic habitat may be substantially throughout the ringed high pup mortality due to hypothermia less significant than a change in freeze- seal’s range was not highly dependent and predation as a consequence of up dynamics that affects ice roughness on that specific value. inadequate snow cover (Kumlien, 1879; and subsequent snow drift development Comment 12: A peer reviewer Lydersen et al., 1987; Lydersen and in the medium and long-term. commented that while the observations Smith, 1989; Smith et al., 1991; Smith Response: A multi-factorial model of reported of the effects of extreme and Lydersen, 1991; Hammill and the impacts of ice extent, thickness, and weather events on Arctic ringed seals Smith, 1989; Hammill and Smith, 1991). ice type on ringed seal populations are important to consider, there are The suggestion that ringed seals may not would be desirable. However, we are relatively few data on how these habitat need lairs to the same degree as not aware of any time series or other effects are influencing longer-term temperatures warm is overly simplistic. data sets that could be used in such an reproductive potential and population Unseasonal warming and rains will analysis. dynamics need to be considered in the become increasingly common as the Comment 17: A peer reviewer noted proper geographic and temporal context. climate warms, and such events have there are few data on what proportion This reviewer noted that these led to high pup mortality when collapse of the habitat identified as ‘‘suitable’’ is observations are also for Arctic ringed of lairs was followed by a return to cold actually used by Arctic ringed seals, and seals in the southern extent of their temperatures (Lukin and Potelov, 1978; commented that without this range and in the western Arctic, where Stirling and Smith, 2004; Ferguson et information it is difficult to evaluate the ringed seals are expected to be more al., 2005). Whether one benefit is impact of ice loss. This reviewer strongly affected by climate change. secondary or not, the preamble to the suggested that in core Arctic areas, Therefore, they need to be considered in proposed rule summarized considerable availability of ice may not be a limiting the proper geographic and temporal data that was detailed in the status factor, even with changes in the short context. review report indicating that lairs and medium term. Response: Long-term data on protect seals from both cold and Response: The greatest uncertainty population dynamics of ice-associated predators. about areas actually used by ringed seals

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is with respect to the offshore areas, seals. Thus, our analysis did not place and snow is sufficient snow depth for especially the central Arctic Basin. particular emphasis on certain ages or the formation and maintenance of lairs. Along the coasts and in the marginal types of ice. NMFS considered the We considered areas projected to have seas, there is relatively good evidence impacts of an increased proportion of less than 20 cm of average snow depth that ringed seals are currently Arctic ice being made up of first-year in April to be inadequate for the widespread if not ubiquitous in areas ice. Indeed, first-year ice is predicted to formation of ringed seal birth lairs. with regular presence of suitable winter form progressively later in fall, after Model projections indicate that ice and snow cover. Many of these areas much of the annual snow has already throughout the range of ringed seals are projected to become unsuitable fallen, so snow depths are projected to there will be a substantial reduction in within the 21st century. Because be diminished on first-year ice as well. on-ice snow cover within this century. potentially suitable sea ice and snow are An increase in the proportion of first- Therefore, a supplemental analysis projected to be present in parts of core year ice would not be beneficial to similar to the one provided to the Arctic areas longer than in other areas ringed seal breeding and pup survival if bearded seal special peer reviewers of the Arctic ringed seal’s range, ringed snow depths on the new regions of first- would not have indicated any potential seals may be affected later in these year ice are insufficient for lair creation gains in suitable habitat in terms of areas. Nevertheless, reductions in snow and maintenance. areas with snow depths sufficient for depths are projected throughout the We agree that ongoing climate ringed seal birth lairs in April. Arctic ringed seal’s range, including in disruption and warming may cause Comment 19: A peer reviewer noted core Arctic areas, such that Arctic some habitat changes that could be that there was discussion in the status ringed seals are threatened by the beneficial to ringed seals. However, a review report of limited evidence anticipated habitat changes throughout shift from unsuitable to suitable values suggesting lack of a suitable ice platform their range. of a few habitat dimensions is not a may lead to a delayed molt. This Comment 18: A peer reviewer strong indication that other habitat will reviewer commented that this should be commented that considerable emphasis become suitable overall. For example, if discussed, along with the longer term is placed on the projected loss of multi- Arctic ringed seals move north with impact from a survival aspect. The year and seasonal ice cover. However, retreating ice and occupy new areas, Marine Mammal Commission submitted this reviewer noted that Arctic ringed they may encounter less prey a related comment that the projected seals avoid multi-year ice, instead availability in the deeper, less loss of ice poses a threat to molting preferring stable first-year ice and stable productive Arctic Basin. The reviewer’s Arctic ringed seals that should not be pack ice, and they only require ice assertion that the Arctic Basin may overlooked. The Commission noted that during breeding and possibly molting. become more productive is highly failure of ice in a molting area may In addition, the reviewer commented speculative; unlike the physical models mean that seals are forced to spend that how Arctic ringed seals might used to predict ice and snow, there is more time in the water, where they must respond to replacement of multi-year not a broad scientific consensus on the expend more energy to maintain body sea ice by seasonal first-year ice is not general direction of the expected trends. temperature-energy that does not go to sufficiently considered, noting that We are not aware of any documented the production of a new coat. although the Arctic Basin has relatively examples of ice-associated species Response: The limited evidence low productivity, it is unclear whether expanding into previously unsuitable suggesting that a lack of suitable ice may this will remain the case in the future. habitat that has become suitable due to lead to a delayed molt was discussed in Another peer reviewer and Greenland’s climate or other large-scale shifts in the status review report. The BRT DFHA both commented that the conditions. Therefore, we conclude that considered the threat posed from translation of multi-year ice into more it is more likely that losses of current decreases in sea ice habitat suitable for first-year ice could actually increase the habitat will outweigh any potential molting as moderately significant to the amount of ringed seal habitat. habitat gains. We also note that as ice persistence of Arctic, Baltic, and Ladoga A few commenters, including and snow cover decline, Arctic waters ringed seals, and moderately to highly Canada’s DFO, similarly suggested that may become more hospitable to species significant to the persistence of Okhotsk some habitat changes caused by like spotted and harbor seals that do not ringed seals (Tables 5–8; Kelly et al., projected changes in climatic depend on snow-covered ice for 2010a). conditions, such as increased open breeding. So, as breeding habitat Comment 20: A peer reviewer water foraging areas, may be beneficial declines for ringed seals, they may also commented that given what is known to ringed seals. One commenter face greater competition for food. about the relatively diverse diet of expressed the opinion that NMFS Regarding the supplemental analysis Arctic ringed seals in different regions arbitrarily adopted a precautionary provided to the special peer reviewers and the potential for new species of approach that assumed the worst of the bearded seal status review report, forage fish to shift northward, it is very possible future habitat conditions that analysis summarized the projected difficult to predict how quickly the without taking into account any future changes in areas of suitable bearded seal distribution of ringed seals might potential habitat gains. This commenter habitat based on sea ice concentration change in some regions. This reviewer also stated that it was unclear why and bathymetry criteria during the expressed the opinion that it is likely to NMFS provided the special peer months of reproduction and molting, be highly variable, making conclusions reviewers of the bearded seal status both including and excluding areas of about climate change impacts over review a supplemental analysis that potential habitat gains. Possible habitat broad geographic regions difficult. highlighted habitat losses and gains gains for bearded seals were described Response: NMFS agrees that drawing based on the sea ice concentration as areas where sea ice concentrations such conclusions is difficult. The BRT criteria, but did not provide a similar were currently too dense to be members’ assessments of the analysis for ringed seals. considered suitable, but where projected significance of specific threats to ringed Response: As discussed above, we future concentrations fall within the seal persistence in the foreseeable future used AOGCM projections to estimate suitable range. For ringed seals, a key were summarized in the status review changes to snow depth and sea ice area consideration in evaluating the potential report in numerical scores. The BRT throughout the range of Arctic ringed impacts of the projected changes in ice members assigned relatively low threat

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scores and low degrees of certainty to ice condition for species extinction, and from increased polar bear predation threats from changes in prey availability that this is a primary reason why listing during ice reductions are part of the or density and higher threat scores to of ringed seals as threatened is not normal predator-prey cycle and should changes in snow cover and the impacts warranted. Greenland’s DFHA not be over-interpreted in considering on rearing young (Table 5; Kelly et al., expressed a similar view. potential impacts of projected changes 2010a). It is not clear how increased Response: We are not aware of any in sea ice habitat. food would compensate for the loss of available information on ringed seal Response: ‘‘Significant pup mortality’’ snow, nor is it clear that forage fish adaptive responses during the from polar bear predation would not moving north would not be interglacial periods. A fundamental have to occur ‘‘across the entire range of accompanied by predators that would difficulty in using pre-historic warm the Arctic ringed seal’’ to pose a threat. compete with ringed seals for those periods as analogs for the current We recognize that expected declines in prey. climate disruption is that the rate of polar bear populations could lessen Comment 21: A peer reviewer warming in the pre-historic periods is predation on ringed seals; however, suggested that the lack of subnivean poorly known. The species’ resilience to decreased snow cover has also been lairs in the Sea of Okhotsk has those previous warming events, which shown to markedly increase predation apparently not increased pup mortality may have been slower than the current success by polar bears (Kumlien, 1879; there to an extent that it has warming, does not necessarily translate Lydersen et al., 1987; Lydersen and significantly decreased the population. into present-day resilience. Moreover, Smith, 1989; Hammill and Smith, 1989; Response: Russian literature has been there may be cumulative effects from Hammill and Smith, 1991; Smith et al., inconsistent as to whether or not lairs climate warming and ocean 1991; Smith and Lydersen, 1991). While are or were used in the Sea of Okhotsk. acidification, or other human impacts, decreased sea ice might decrease We know of no data that would support that combine to limit the species’ accessibility of seals to bears, it also the reviewer’s assertion that pup resilience to the changes anticipated in may be that the decreased extent of ice mortality has not increased or that the the coming decades. could concentrate ringed seals, resulting population has not significantly Comment 24: A peer reviewer in the opposite effect. The possible decreased. The best available commented that the magnitude of the decreases in predation are speculative, information would suggest the impact that increased predation might while increases in predation associated population has decreased, but as noted have relative to mortalities associated with decreased snow cover have been elsewhere, estimates of population size with other climate related factors like an well documented. Therefore, the best are poor. early spring rain or an early break-up in scientific and commercial data available Comment 22: Two peer reviewers a particular region is not discussed. This show that the threat posed to ringed commented that Arctic ringed seals are reviewer also commented that how the seals by predation is currently considerably more abundant and suite of predators in a particular range moderate, but this threat can be broadly distributed than Okhotsk and might change from predominantly ‘‘on- expected to increase as snow and sea ice Baltic ringed seals, and their habitat is ice’’ species (e.g., polar bears) to ‘‘in- conditions change with a warming forecast to change less substantially. water’’ species (e.g., sharks and killer climate. Therefore, it is unclear why the whales) and what impacts that might Comment 26: A peer reviewer found demographic risks for all three have is not addressed. the assessment of subsistence harvest in populations were assessed at relatively Response: Although the relative the proposed rule reasonable, noting similar levels. impacts of the various factors cited by that harvest appears to be substantial in Response: The ‘‘relatively similar the reviewer are no doubt significant to some areas of the Arctic, but appears to levels’’ are, in part, a function of the 1 the eventual status of ringed seals in remain sustainable. This reviewer to 5 numeric scale used to estimate risk various portions of their range, we commented that the ISC has been in the status review report. The BRT consider them too speculative to developing a harvest monitoring assessed the risk in terms of abundance evaluate at this time. The reviewer did program with personnel assistance from for the Okhotsk population as 31 not provide additional data or evidence the State of Alaska. The Marine percent higher than for the Arctic on which to base such an evaluation. Mammal Commission also commented population, and the risk for the Baltic Comment 25: A peer reviewer that it does not believe that the population as 38 percent higher than for expressed the opinion that the threat subsistence harvest of ringed seals in the Arctic population in the foreseeable posed to Arctic ringed seals by polar U.S. waters constitutes a significant risk future (Table 10; Kelly et al., 2010a). bear predation should be qualified. This factor for Arctic ringed seals, and The assessment of demographic risks reviewer commented that it is unlikely several other commenters expressed was detailed for each population in polar bear predation would cause similar views regarding subsistence section 4.3 of the status review report. significant pup mortality across the harvest in U.S. waters, as well as Comment 23: A peer reviewer entire range of the Arctic ringed seal. In elsewhere. In contrast, another commented that while it is addition, this reviewer noted that it is commenter expressed concern that the acknowledged that ringed seals have assumed that polar bear abundance will impact of Native subsistence hunting on likely responded to previous warm remain high as snow conditions ringed seals is substantially periods, no attempt is made to explore deteriorate; however, it is expected that underestimated. The commenter the extent of these warming periods and polar bear populations will decline, expressed the view that NMFS needs to how ringed seals may have adapted to which could reduce predator effects on obtain reliable estimates of subsistence them. The State of Alaska and another ringed seals. In addition, this reviewer harvest of ringed seals such that their commenter similarly suggested that past commented that ringed seals may also conservation status can be more closely warming periods were not adequately become less accessible to polar bears as monitored, in particular considering considered. They stated that the seasonal sea ice decreases. Greenland’s climate change is expected to have survival of ringed seals during DFHA similarly discussed the dynamic impacts on ringed seals and those could interglacial periods can be considered relationship between polar bears and be exacerbated by other factors such as better evidence for population ringed seals, suggesting that harvest. This commenter also suggested persistence than predictive models of observations of ringed seal declines that additional resources should be

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devoted to obtaining these estimates of negatively affecting the species, NMFS 2000) to defensibly derive habitat subsistence harvest, and suggested that may regulate such harvests pursuant to parameters and use TEK to provide NMFS institute a harvest monitoring sections 101(b) and 103(d) of the presence/absence data for model fitting system rather than rely on self- MMPA. NMFS would have to hold an and evaluation. reporting. administrative hearing on the record for Response: The contribution of TEK to A number of commenters, including such proposed regulations. Currently, the overall understanding of ice- the ISC and Greenland’s DFHA, based on the best available data, the associated seal species is greater than emphasized that ice seals have been a subsistence harvest of ringed seals by commonly acknowledged. Much of our vital subsistence species for indigenous Alaska Natives appears sustainable. If basic understanding of the natural people in the Arctic and remain a the current situation changes, NMFS history of ice-associated seals stems fundamental resource for many northern will work under co-management with from information imparted by coastal communities. Some the ISC (under section 119 of the indigenous Arctic hunters and observers commenters, including the ISC, MMPA) to find the best approach to to the authors who first documented the requested that NMFS identify what ensure that sustainable subsistence biology of the species in the scientific additional measures would be required harvest of these seals by Alaska Natives literature. NMFS recognizes that Alaska before the subsistence hunt could be can continue into the future. NMFS is Native subsistence hunting affected by Federal management of also continuing to work with the ISC to communities hold much more ringed seals and under what conditions develop and expand collaborative information that is potentially relevant the agency would consider taking those harvest monitoring methods. and useful for assessing the additional measures, and this Comment 27: A peer reviewer conservation status of ice seals. information should be provided to commented that it is suggested that Productive exchanges of TEK and residents of all potentially affected climate change will likely alter patterns scientific knowledge between the communities. of subsistence harvest of marine agency and Alaska Native communities Response: We recognize the mammals by hunting communities. can take many forms. Collaborative importance of Arctic ringed seals to However, this reviewer noted that research projects, for example, provide Alaska Native coastal communities. hunter questionnaire data from five opportunities for scientists and hunters Section 101(b) of the MMPA provides Alaska villages (Quakenbush et al., to bring together the most effective ideas an exemption that allows Alaska 2011) did not indicate decreases in and techniques from both approaches to Natives to take ringed seals for ringed seal availability at any location. gather new information and resolve subsistence purposes as long as the take Response: The alterations to conservation issues. NMFS supports is not accomplished in a wasteful subsistence harvest patterns by climate efforts to expand reciprocal knowledge- manner. Section (10)(e) of the ESA also change suggested in the proposed rule sharing, which can be facilitated provides an exemption from its are likely to occur at some unspecified through our co-management agreements. prohibitions on the taking of time in the future, when changes to These efforts require time to build endangered or threatened species by snow and ice cover are predicted to be networks of relationships with Alaska Natives for subsistence purposes, more pronounced that they are at community members, and the ESA does provided that such taking is not present. The hunter questionnaire data not allow us to defer a listing decision accomplished in a wasteful manner. relate to recent, not future, ringed seal in order to collect additional Although the number of ringed seals availability. information. harvested annually by Alaska Natives is Comment 28: A peer reviewer Comment 29: Four peer reviewers not precisely known or commented that no information from expressed the view that while the best comprehensively monitored, ongoing the subsistence community or the ISC is scientific data available was evaluated hunter surveys in several communities considered in the status review report. in assessing the status of the Arctic give no indication that the harvest This reviewer noted that subsistence ringed seal, this information does not numbers are excessive or have a hunters know a great deal about the provide an adequate basis to support the significant impact on the dynamics of biology, ecology, behavior, and listing proposal for this subspecies. Two the populations (Quakenbush et al., movement of ringed seals, and keep a of these reviewers noted that Arctic 2011). The numbers of seals harvested close watch for changes in the seals ringed seals number in the millions, are have likely declined substantially in relative to environmental change. widely distributed across a vast area and recent decades because the need for Several related public comments, variety of habitats, and have a high food to supply sled-dog teams has including from the ISC, expressed the degree of genetic diversity. They diminished as snowmobiles have been opinion that NMFS has not made expressed the view that they are thus adopted as the primary means of winter adequate use of the traditional unlikely to be at high risk of major transport. The proportion of Alaska ecological knowledge (TEK) of Alaska declines due to environmental Natives that make substantial use of Natives related to ice seals in the listing perturbations including catastrophic marine mammals for subsistence may process. The ISC also suggested that events, and as such, they are not at risk also have declined due to increased NMFS should conduct a TEK study of extinction now or in the foreseeable availability and use of non-traditional related to ice seals. Another commenter future, and should not be listed as foods in coastal communities. However, specifically suggested that TEK should threatened. In addition, these reviewers there may also be a counterbalancing be sought and incorporated into model pointed out that the climate model increase in awareness of health benefits projections of future snow cover on sea projections suggest there will be of traditional foods compared with non- ice; and that the adaptive capacity of sufficient snow and ice to support traditional alternatives. Arctic ringed seals should be further survival and reproduction of Arctic Under the MMPA the Alaska stock of investigated by seeking observations of ringed seals through mid-century, and ringed seals will be considered Native communities, especially those in they appear to have healthy abundant ‘‘depleted’’ on the effective date of this the southern part of its range. This populations across their range. One of listing. In the future, if NMFS expressly commenter also suggested that NMFS these reviewers suggested that this was concludes that harvest of ringed seals by should use an empirical static modeling the case for the other subspecies as well, Alaska Natives is materially and approach (Guisan and Zimmerman, and noted that there is therefore still

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time to monitor the status of these We agree that Arctic ringed seals are seal in particular until more information populations and their responses to currently thought to be distributed becomes available. Two commenters changes in ice and snow conditions throughout their range and number in specifically noted that NMFS has before any of the demographic the millions, are widely distributed and announced that it is conducting large- characteristics considered could be genetically diverse, and are not scale ice seal aerial surveys, and they expected to be at any elevated risk level. presently in danger of extinction. requested that NMFS delay the listing In opposing the proposed listing of However, these characteristics do not determination until the results of these Arctic ringed seals, several related protect them from becoming at risk of surveys become available. public comments, including from the extinction in the foreseeable future as a Response: Under the ESA, we must State of Alaska, Canada’s DFO, consequence of widespread habitat loss. base each listing decision on the best Nunavut’s Department of Conservation, Based on the best available scientific available scientific and commercial data and Greenland’s DFHA, similarly noted data, we have concluded that the available after conducting a review of that Arctic ringed seals appear to have persistence of Arctic ringed seals likely the status of the species and taking into healthy abundant populations across will be challenged as decreases in ice account any efforts being made by states their range. Several commenters and, especially, snow cover lead to or foreign governments to protect the suggested that the ESA is not intended increased juvenile mortality from species, and we have done so in to list currently healthy abundant premature weaning, hypothermia, and assessing the status of Arctic, Okhotsk, species that occupy their entire predation. Initially impacts may be Baltic, and Ladoga ringed seals. These historical ranges. Some of these somewhat ameliorated as the data were summarized in the preamble commenters expressed the opinion that subspecies’ range retracts northward to the proposed rule and are discussed if NMFS lists healthy abundant species with sea ice habitat. By the end of this in detail in the status review report (see under the ESA based on assessments century, however, average snow depths Kelly et al., 2010a). The existing body of that consider the potential biological are projected to be less than the literature concerning ringed seal consequences of multi-decadal climate minimum depths needed for successful population status and trends is limited, forecasts, virtually every species could formation and maintenance of birth lairs and additional studies are needed to be considered threatened. A few throughout a substantial portion of the better understand many aspects of commenters also stated that a subspecies’ range. Thus, within the ringed seal population dynamics and conclusion that the Arctic ringed seal foreseeable future it is likely that the habitat relationships. However, the ESA does not allow us to defer listing subspecies will decline from millions of number of Arctic ringed seals will decisions until additional information seals to being threatened with extinction decline substantially, and they will no becomes available. In reaching a final should be accompanied with some level longer persist in substantial portions of listing determination we have of quantification regarding what their range. Data were not available to make considered the best scientific and constitutes being in danger of statistically rigorous inferences how commercial data available, including extinction. Finally, the State of Alaska Arctic ringed seals will respond to the information provided in the status commented that although the habitat loss over time. We note that we review report as well as information monitoring could be enhanced, ADFG’s currently have no mechanism to detect received via the peer review process and Arctic Marine Mammal Program is even major changes in ringed seal public comment. These data are adequate to detect landscape population population size (Taylor et al., 2007). sufficient to conclude that Arctic, level patterns and problems, should However, the BRT’s assessment of the Okhotsk, and Baltic ringed seals are they arise in the future. severity of the demographic risks posed likely to become endangered within the Response: The ESA defines a to the persistence of each of the ringed foreseeable future (threatened) and threatened species as one that ‘‘is likely seal subspecies was formalized using a Ladoga ringed seals are in danger of to become an endangered species within numerical scoring system. The BRT extinction (endangered). the foreseeable future throughout all or judged the risks to Arctic ringed seal Comments on the Climate Model a significant portion of its range’’ (16 persistence to be moderate to high Projections and the Identification and U.S.C. 1532(20)). Whether a species is within the foreseeable future (Table 10; Consideration of Related Habitat healthy at the time of listing or Kelly et al., 2010a). After considering Threats beginning to decline is not the deciding these risks as well as the remaining factor. The inquiry requires NMFS to factors from section 4(a)(1) of the ESA, Comment 31: A commenter noted that consider the status of the species both we concluded that the Arctic ringed seal studies indicate the risks from climate in the present and through the is likely to become endangered within change are substantially greater than foreseeable future. Having received a the foreseeable future (threatened), those assessed in the IPCC’s AR4, petition and subsequently having found primarily due to the projected loss of raising concern that the IPCC climate that the petition presented substantial sea ice habitat, in particular snow cover. change projections used in the status information indicating that listing Comment 30: A peer reviewer review report likely underestimate ringed seals may be warranted (73 FR commented that although Baltic and climate change risks to ringed seals. 51615; September 4, 2008), we are Ladoga ringed seals are the most at risk Response: Although recent required to use the best scientific and due to their lower abundances and observations of annual minimum ice commercial data available to determine limited habitat, there do not appear to extent in the Arctic Ocean have been whether ringed seals satisfy the be sufficient data available to evaluate outside (i.e., below) the majority of definition of an endangered or the risks to their persistence. Similarly, model runs projected from the most threatened species because of any of the several commenters expressed the view commonly used scenarios, a few models five factors identified under section that there are insufficient data, exhibit anomalies of a similar 4(a)(1) of the ESA. These data were including on abundance and population magnitude early in the 21st century. compiled in the status review report of trends, to proceed with the listing of Nonetheless, the observed sea ice retreat the ringed seal (Kelly et al., 2010a) and Arctic ringed seals at this time. Some has been faster than the consensus summarized in the preamble to the commenters stated that we should defer projection, which may have occurred proposed rule. the listing decision for the Arctic ringed either because: (1) climate models do

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not have sufficient sea ice sensitivity to preamble to the proposed rule that the occur, and that the length of open water the rise in GHG forcing, or (2) there is projected decreases in sea ice, and and changes in snow accumulation are an unusually large contribution in especially snow cover, are expected to the primary issues. These commenters observations from natural variability. lead to increased pup mortality from expressed the view that changes in the Many of the same recent years have premature weaning, hypothermia, and distribution and numbers of ringed seals been characterized by near record high predation. may occur, but the continued ice extents in regions such as the Bering Comment 34: A commenter expressed occurrence of winter ice, and Sea, for example. While we recognize the view that sea ice in the Arctic has particularly years where its record the possibility that consensus been in decline for a number of years extent coincides with low summer ice, projections may underestimate the without observed detrimental effects on indicate that a more thorough future risks to ringed seals, the ringed seals, thus calling into question assessment of seal habitat and likelihood of that does not seem to be NMFS’s assumption that future declines population responses is needed before sufficiently established to warrant in sea ice will inevitably result in the threat of extinction can be assessed abandonment of the IPCC AR4 as the impacts to ringed seals. with any level of certainty. best available scientific basis for Response: As noted in the preamble to Response: The above average ice projection of future conditions. the proposed rule and discussed in cover in winter in the Bering Sea in 4 Comment 32: The State of Alaska detail in the status review report, our of the last 5 years is consistent with noted that predicting climate change is present ability to detect changes in the natural variability of the past 33 years made more difficult and uncertain by Arctic and Okhotsk ringed seal and does not represent a statistically decades long shifts in temperature that populations is limited. There are no significant increase. In any case, as the occur due to such variables as the population estimates sufficiently precise reviewer notes, the length of the open Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). for use as a reference in judging trends. water season and snow depths are the Response: Climate models account for Indices of condition, such as those primary issues. Furthermore it is the PDO variability but the PDO is chaotic— recently reported by ADFG trend, forced from rising GHGs, in the the future points at which it will shift (Quakenbush et al, 2011), are available sea ice cover in fall (and hence open between its warm and cool phases for only a limited portion of the Arctic water) that causes snow depth to cannot currently be predicted. In this ringed seal’s range and would not be decline in the model projections. sense, a specific PDO is not predictable expected to detect certain types of Comment 36: A commenter noted that in the future. To address this detrimental effects, such as an increase NMFS’s current MMPA stock unpredictable variability, NMFS used in pup mortality by predation. assessment report and proposed draft the average from an ensemble of models Therefore, while NMFS is not aware of update state that there are insufficient and model runs. The average of the unequivocal evidence that Arctic or ensemble indicates the expected Okhotsk ringed seals have declined, the data to predict the effects of Arctic response forced by rising GHGs and converse is equally true: there is no firm climate change on the Alaska ringed aerosol changes. The individual model evidence that these populations are seal stock, suggesting that predicting runs that compose the ensemble vary stable or increasing. Our decision to list future population declines based upon substantially, often trending above or these subspecies is based primarily on climate change effects is speculative. below the average, or bouncing back and our conclusion for ESA listing Factor A Response: NMFS’s MMPA stock forth across it. The variability among the that ongoing and projected changes in assessments for ice-associated seals model runs in the ensemble reflects the sea ice habitat pose significant threats to need to be updated, which NMFS is in unpredictability of the PDO and many the persistence of all of the ringed seal the process of doing to reflect new data other factors. We used the range of this subspecies. and recent analyses from ESA status variability in our projections of future The primary concern about future reviews. ice conditions, for example, to ringed seal habitat stems from Comment 37: A commenter noted that characterize the minimum, mean, and projections of inadequate snow depths elders and hunters interviewed in 2011 maximum ice concentrations in future for birth lair formation and maintenance for a Kawerak research project on TEK decades. later in the 21st century. Although the of ice seals and walruses reported Comment 33: The State of Alaska and model projections considered in the changes in ice and weather that another commenter noted that it is status review report indicate a decline complicated hunter access, but they also assumed Arctic ringed seals cannot in snow depth on sea ice has been explained that walrus, bearded, and survive without year-round ice. underway for some years, the average ringed seals were as healthy as ever. The However, they suggested that the predicted depth remains at least slightly commenter also noted that multiple current status of the other ringed seal greater than the 20 cm minimum for hunters in these interviews also subspecies indicates ringed seals can lairs. Thus, these projections are reported that marine mammals have survive without multi-year ice. consistent with a scenario in which shifted their migrations to match the Response: Our risk assessment for little or no impact from climate timing of earlier ice break-ups. Arctic ringed seals was not based on an disruption has yet been felt by Arctic Individual observations regarding ice assumption that they require sea ice ringed seals. The anticipated impacts seal ecology, health, abundance, year-round. The threats that were scored likely will begin to appear in the near behavior, and habitat were also by the BRT as moderate to high future as average snow depth on ice provided by a number of coastal Alaska significance were a decrease in sea ice declines. residents, primarily Native hunters. habitat suitable for whelping and Comment 35: The State of Alaska and Many of these comments, including nursing, and increased hypothermia due another commenter suggested that the those from the ISC, indicated that to insufficient depth or duration of record high winter ice in the Bering Sea although the effects of a warming Arctic snow cover (Table 5; Kelly et al., 2010a). from 2007–2010 casts some doubt on have been observed for a number of Both of these threats are relevant to the the determination of the threat of years, ringed seals appear healthy and period of whelping and pup rearing, extinction to ringed seals. They noted abundant, and any significant decline about mid-March to mid-June for Arctic that the climate model projections make does not appear to be sufficiently ringed seals. We discussed in the it clear that winter ice will continue to imminent to warrant listing Arctic

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ringed seals as threatened under the with assessing the potential impacts of the U.S. Government and international ESA at this time. ocean acidification in the previous ESA community to implement effective and Response: TEK provides a relevant listing determinations for ribbon and comprehensive GHG reduction and important source of information on spotted seals. measures places ringed seals at ever- the ecology of Arctic ringed seals, and Response: As we discussed in the increasing risk, where the worst-case we have carefully reviewed the preamble to the proposed rule, the IPCC scenarios are becoming more comments submitted from individuals impact of ocean acidification on ringed likely. with TEK on ringed seals and climate seals is expected to be primarily through Response: While some progress is change. We do not find that these changes in community composition, but being made in addressing anthropogenic observations conflict with our the nature and timing of these changes GHG emissions, we recognize in our conclusions. As we have noted in is uncertain. The BRT members tended analysis under ESA listing Factor D that response to other related comments, to rank the threat from ocean current mechanisms do not effectively Arctic ringed seals are not presently in acidification as relatively low, but also regulate the anthropogenic processes danger of extinction, but are likely to noted the very low degree of certainty influencing global climate change and become endangered within the about the nature and magnitude of the associated changes to ringed seal foreseeable future. potential effects on ringed seals (Tables habitat, and that this is contributing to Comment 38: Greenland’s DFHA 5–8; Kelly et al., 2010a). However, the the risks posed to ringed seals by these commented that the most pessimistic BRT did consider cumulative effects as emissions. Further, we note that our scenarios for consequences of sea ice part of the threats assessment scoring analysis considered future emissions loss on polar bears estimate a reduction procedure, as evidenced by the fact that scenarios that did not involve dramatic in the polar bear population to one-third the overall score for each ESA section and substantial reductions in GHG of its present size by 2099, and that if 4(a)(1) factor tended to be as high or emissions. the densities of polar bears and Arctic higher than the score assigned for Comment 43: Some commenters ringed seals continue to stay correlated individual threats within each factor. suggested that NMFS should re-examine in the ratio of 1:200, this implies that its conclusion that fisheries do not there would still be more than 2 million Comments on the Identification and threaten ringed seals because a warming ringed seals. Consideration of Other Threats climate could lead to shifts in Response: The ratio between ringed Comment 41: A commenter expressed commercial fisheries that could affect seal and polar bear densities, and the the opinion that the listing of ringed the seal’s food base. speculation that such a ratio would seals is related to the elevated number Response: The possible advent of new remain constant in the face of extreme of sick or dead ringed seals reported in commercial fisheries, and the nature changes in the Arctic ecosystem, are 2011. This commenter noted, however, and magnitude of ecosystem responses, interesting as a conceptual exercise but that testing has not identified a cause for are speculative. Although there are cannot be considered the best scientific this apparent disease outbreak, and that possible risks, those should be mitigated and commercial information for the the significance of the mortalities to the through appropriate management of purpose of our ESA listing decision. population as a whole is unclear. new fisheries. In U.S. waters, the intent Comment 39: Greenland’s DFHA Response: The proposed listing of to conduct such responsible suggested that if the projected changes Arctic ringed seals is not related to the management is evident in the Arctic in sea ice cover are realized, ringed seal disease outbreak referred to by the Fishery Management Plan (North Pacific habitat will likely shift northward of the commenter, which began after the Fishery Management Council, 2009), range of Inuit hunters. They commented proposal was published. The elevated which establishes a framework for that in recent years new ringed seal numbers of sick or dead ringed seals in sustainably managing Arctic marine habitat has emerged in northern areas the Arctic and Bering Strait regions of resources. where there is not hunting, which has Alaska beginning in July 2011 led to the Comment 44: Some commenters actually created a new sanctuary for declaration of an unusual mortality stated that offshore oil and gas ringed seals in what must be some of the event (UME) by NMFS under the MMPA development should be determined to most pristine habitats on earth. on December 20, 2011. The underlying be a threat to ringed seals in part Response: The current levels of cause of this UME is unknown and because there is no technology available subsistence hunting do not threaten remains under focused expert to effectively contain or recover spilled ringed seal populations. If sanctuaries investigation. We acknowledged in the oil in ice covered waters, and a large oil from human or other predation were to preamble to the proposed rule that spill could be devastating to these seals. emerge, as the commenter suggested, abiotic and biotic changes to ringed seal In addition one of these commenters this could moderate, to some extent, habitat could lead to exposure to new emphasized that extensive offshore oil losses due to poor snow and ice pathogens or new levels of virulence. developments are currently underway conditions. However, given the However, based on the best scientific within the range of Arctic ringed seals, relatively small impact of hunting, and and commercial data available, we and additional drilling is proposed in the potentially very large impact from continue to consider the potential the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Other the loss of pupping habitat, such threats to ringed seals from disease to be commenters stated that offshore oil and sanctuaries would have limited benefit low. gas development, as currently regulated, for the declining population status over Comment 42: A few commenters does not pose a significant threat to time. expressed the opinion that existing Arctic ringed seals. Comment 40: Some commenters regulatory mechanisms in the United Response: Although a large oil spill argued that ocean acidification should States and elsewhere are not adequate to could cause substantial injury, be determined to be a significant threat, address the factors driving climate mortality, and indirect impacts to seals in particular when considered disruption (i.e., GHGs). One of these in the area, the risks posed to cumulatively with other climate change commenters suggested that U.S. persistence of the ringed seal subspecies impacts. Another commenter disagreed, agencies are either failing to implement as a whole are low and are possible to and felt that NMFS more clearly or only partially implementing laws for mitigate by preventive measures, at least discussed the uncertainties associated GHGs, and that the continued failure of relative to the much more pervasive

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risks from climate change and habitat is uncertain. Land boundaries will limit the Endangered Species Act’’ (61 FR loss. the ability of Okhotsk, Baltic, and 4722; February 7, 1996) two elements Ladoga ringed seals to shift their range are considered when evaluating whether Comments on the Status Determinations northward in response to deteriorating a population segment qualifies as a for the Ringed Seal Subspecies ice and snow conditions. Regarding the distinct population segment (DPS) Comment 45: The State of Alaska, climate model forecasts, the BRT under the ESA: (1) The discreteness of Canada’s DFO, Nunavut’s Department of analyses used simulations from six the population segment in relation to Environment, and several other CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) models prepared the remainder of the species or commenters expressed the opinion that for the IPCC’s AR4, which represent the subspecies to which it belongs; and (2) Arctic ringed seals should not be listed scientific consensus view on the causes the significance of the population because there are no scientific data and future of climate change and segment to the species or subspecies to demonstrating any observed past or constitute the best scientific and which it belongs. If a population present adverse impacts on ringed seal commercial data available. Based on segment is discrete and significant (i.e., populations resulting from sea ice this information, and after considering it is a DPS), its evaluation for recession or other environmental the five ESA section 4(a)(1) factors, we endangered or threatened status will be changes attributed to climate change. have determined that the Arctic, based on the ESA’s definitions of those The State of Alaska also extended this Okhotsk, and Baltic subspecies are terms and a review of the factors comment to the other subspecies of likely to become endangered within the enumerated in section 4(a). ringed seals proposed for listing. These foreseeable future throughout their A population segment of a vertebrate commenters suggested that the ranges (i.e., threatened under the ESA). species may be considered discrete if it determinations rely on the results of Ladoga ringed seals are also faced with satisfies either one of the following predictive models and speculation additional threats and the population conditions: (1) it is markedly separated about future impacts, which they argued has been greatly reduced from historical from other populations of the same provide insufficient justification. Some numbers. We have therefore determined taxon as a consequence of physical, of these commenters noted that in that an endangered listing is appropriate physiological, ecological, or behavioral contrast, the polar bear ESA for this subspecies. factors; or (2) it is delimited by determination relied upon data for some With regard to the comment that the international governmental boundaries populations that suggested a link climate model projections should be within which differences in control of between observed population declines considered as hypotheses, with data exploitation, management of habitat, or other population vital rates and collected over time to test the conservation status, or regulatory climate change. Further, the State of hypotheses, taking that approach in lieu mechanisms exist that are significant in Alaska and another commenter of listing is not an option under the light of section 4(a)(1)(D) of the ESA. As suggested that climate model ESA. If the best scientific and summarized in the preamble to the projections should be considered as commercial data available indicate that proposed rule and discussed in detail in hypotheses to be tested with data a species satisfies the definition of the status review report (p. 35–39), we collected over time. threatened or endangered, then NMFS found no evidence of discrete segments Response: We have concluded that must list it. In time, as new data become within the Arctic ringed seal the best scientific and commercial data available, NMFS may de-list a species, population, including within the available, which are discussed in detail change its listing status, or maintain its Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Therefore, in the status review report and are listing status. The determination here is we did not take the next step of summarized in this notice, provide based on the best scientific and determining whether any population sufficient evidence that: (1) Ringed seals commercial data that is presently segment is significant to the taxon to are strongly ice-associated and the available. which it belongs. pupping and nursing seasons, in Comment 46: The Marine Mammal Comment 47: A commenter suggested particular, are adapted to the phenology Commission recommended that before that if NMFS determines that any of the of ice and snow; (2) reductions in sea listing the Arctic ringed seal subspecies, ringed seal subspecies are threatened ice and in particular the depth and NMFS first determine whether ringed under the ESA, it should adopt the duration of snow cover on sea ice are seals in the Canadian Arctic approach used by FWS for species such very likely to occur within the Archipelago might be recognized as a as the walrus and designate them as foreseeable future; (3) without the discrete and significant population and candidate species, or alternatively list protection of lairs, ringed seals, in excluded from the listing due to limited them as species of concern. This particular newborn pups, are vulnerable change in physical and ecological commenter expressed the opinion that to freezing and predation; (4) the rates conditions projected for that area. A listing the species as candidate species of environmental change will be rapid related comment from Canada’s DFO or species of concern would avoid in the coming centuries and may expressed the view that the subspecies- unnecessary expenditure of resources outpace possible adaptive responses; wide listing of Arctic ringed seals does while providing for the option to take and (5) the rapid changes in sea ice not address the variable spatial and appropriate action under the ESA if it habitat are likely to decrease the ringed temporal scales of threats that the becomes necessary. seal populations to levels where they different populations of Arctic ringed Response: Although NMFS and FWS are in danger of extinction. Because seals face. This commenter noted, for define candidate species the same way Arctic ringed seals stay with the ice as example, that while in the southern in their joint regulations, the two it annually advances and retreats, the parts of its range certain Arctic ringed agencies have slightly different southern edge of this subspecies’ range seal populations might be compromised interpretations of the term. FWS may initially shift northward. However, if warming trends continue, in other candidate species are those species for whether Arctic ringed seals will Arctic regions ringed seal habitat could which FWS has sufficient information continue to move north with retreating be expected to remain. to support an ESA listing but for which ice over the deeper, less productive Response: Under our ‘‘Policy issuance of a proposed rule is precluded Arctic Basin waters and whether species Regarding the Recognition of Distinct due to higher priority listings (61 FR that they prey on will also move north Vertebrate Population Segments Under 64481; December 5, 1996). Therefore,

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FWS has already determined that its exceeds the maximum number of We have also considered the candidate species warrant listing under animals that may be removed (not Commission’s comments and the ESA. In contrast, NMFS uses the including natural mortalities) while information regarding Ladoga ringed term ‘‘candidate species’’ to refer to ‘‘(1) allowing the stock to reach or maintain seals. After reanalyzing the factors species that are the subject of a petition its OSP; (2) based on the best available affecting Ladoga ringed seals, we agree to list and for which NMFS has scientific information, is declining and that greater weight should be given to determined that listing may be likely to be listed as threatened under the range of threats affecting these seals, warranted, pursuant to section the ESA; or (3) is listed as threatened or and in particular the severity of the 4(b)(3)(A), and (2) species for which endangered under the ESA. While we threats posed by loss of ice and snow NMFS has determined, following a may consider MMPA stock assessment and mortality in fishing gear. As noted status review, that listing is warranted information, our determination as to in the preamble to the proposed rule, (whether or not they are the subject of whether the Arctic ringed seal meets the threats such as drowning of seals in a petition)’’ (69 FR 19976; April 15, definition of a threatened or endangered fishing gear and disturbance from 2004). Regardless, once a species has species must be based on an assessment human activities are conservation been proposed for listing, section of the threats according to section 4 of concerns for Ladoga ringed seals that 4(b)(6)(A) of the ESA does not allow us the ESA. could exacerbate the effects to these to issue a ‘‘warranted but precluded’’ Comment 49: Several commenters, seals due to climate change and habitat finding. Such a finding is only including Canada’s DFO and Nunavut’s loss. There is evidence that seal- permissible at the time of a 12-month Department of Environment, expressed fisheries conflicts continue, and that finding (see section 4(b)(3)(B)), not a the view that listing the ringed seal bycatch of seals in fishing nets is a final rule. NMFS defines a ‘‘species of subspecies as threatened is inconsistent significant source of mortality (Verevkin concern’’ as a species that is not being with the IUCN’s listing of ringed seals et al., 2010). Medvedev and Sipila¨ actively considered for listing under the among species of ‘‘least concern.’’ (2010) also reported that in the north ESA, but for which significant concerns Response: While we may review the portion of Lake Ladoga there has been or uncertainties regarding its biological assessment processes and conclusions a marked decrease in snow cover and status and/or threats exist (69 FR 19975; of other expert organizations such as the thickness of snow drifts. They noted April 15, 2004). This is not the case for IUCN, our determination as to whether that the importance of this northern part Arctic, Okhotsk, Baltic, or Ladoga the ringed seal subspecies meet the of the lake as breeding habitat is likely ringed seals. definition of threatened or endangered to increase as ice cover decreases or Comment 48: A commenter noted that must be an independent one based on disappears in southern Lake Ladoga. We the Alaska stock of ringed seals is not an assessment of the threats according have therefore concluded in our listed as depleted or strategic under the to section 4 of the ESA. After reviewing analysis of the five ESA section 4(a)(1) MMPA by NMFS, which they suggested the best scientific and commercial data factors that the risks to Ladoga ringed indicates the absence of scientific data available, we have determined that seals under listing Factor A (‘‘The or consensus that these populations are Arctic, Okhotsk, and Baltic, ringed seals Present or Threatened Destruction, currently threatened or in significant Modification, or Curtailment of its are likely to become endangered within decline. Habitat or Range’’) and to a lesser extent the foreseeable future (threatened) and Response: The absence of a depleted Factor D (‘‘Inadequacy of Existing that Ladoga ringed seals are in danger of designation does not mean that a Regulatory Mechanisms’’) and Factor E extinction (endangered). species is not threatened under the ESA. (‘‘Other Natural or Manmade Factors Similarly, the absence of a threatened Comment 50: The Marine Mammal Affecting the Species’ Continued designation does not mean a species or Commission recommended that NMFS Existence’’) are collectively significantly population stock is not depleted under re-evaluate individual and cumulative contributing to the risk of extinction for the MMPA. Under both the ESA and the threats to the Baltic and Ladoga this landlocked population. We note MMPA, these determinations are based subspecies of ringed seals and consider that Kovacs et al. (2012) cited similar on reviews of the best scientific and listing these species as endangered. The threats in classifying the Ladoga ringed commercial data available, which is the Commission noted that the Baltic and seal as endangered according to the process NMFS is undertaking here. Ladoga subspecies are greatly reduced IUCN Red List classification criteria. The criteria for depleted or strategic from historical numbers and are subject After reconsidering the ESA section status under the MMPA also differ from to a range of threats in addition to 4(a)(1) factors in light of the those for threatened or endangered reduction in ice habitat, including Commission’s comments and the new species under the ESA. A species or mortality in fishing gear, industrial information discussed above, and taking population stock is considered depleted pollution, and for Ladoga ringed seals, into consideration other relevant factors, under the MMPA if it is determined disturbance of summer haul-out site including conservation efforts and through rulemaking to be below its areas, and likely increased risk of special designations for this population, optimum sustainable population (OSP) predation as lair conditions deteriorate. we have determined that Ladoga ringed or if it is listed as threatened or Response: With regard to Baltic ringed seals are ‘‘in danger of extinction,’’ and endangered under the ESA. Section 3(9) seals, we expressly recognized the are now listing them as endangered in of the MMPA (16 U.S.C. 1362(9)) threats identified by the Commission in this final rule. defines OSP as ‘‘the number of animals the preamble to the propose rule. The which will result in the maximum BRT judged the risks posed by those Comments Related to Subsistence productivity of the population or threats to be low to moderate at present. Harvest of Ringed Seals species, keeping in mind the carrying In weighing the immediacy and Comment 51: Several comments capacity of the habitat and the health of magnitude of the threats posed to Baltic received, including from the ISC, the ecosystem of which they form a ringed seals, we continue to conclude expressed concern that Alaska Natives constituent element.’’ Under the MMPA, that Baltic ringed seals are likely to who harvest ice seals, and all of the the term ‘‘strategic stock’’ means a become endangered within the coastal communities, will likely be marine mammal stock: (1) for which the foreseeable future, rather than that they disproportionately affected by the level of human-caused mortality are in danger of extinction. listing of Arctic ringed seals as

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threatened; and that the listing could Native community, as well as the opportunity to learn about and cause hardship in the form of expertise and particular knowledge the understand the proposed rules and their restrictions being placed on subsistence Alaska Native hunting communities implications. We received several hunting of the seals, and could also possess regarding the species and its comments expressing concern that result in other restrictions that could habitats. We are committed to consultation with Alaska coastal impair economic development. Some of meaningful involvement of communities and local leaders was these commenters expressed concern stakeholders, including the Alaska inadequate. One commenter asserted that the listing could also result in Native Community, throughout any that the Inuit of Alaska, Canada, Russia, additional unfunded mandates, such as recovery planning process. Critical and Greenland should all play a central monitoring of the seal harvest. habitat will be proposed in subsequent consultative role in any decision that Response: As discussed above, the rulemaking. We are soliciting comments could affect them in relation to wildlife MMPA and ESA exempt subsistence on the identification of critical habitat food sources and wildlife management takes by Alaska Natives from the marine (see DATES, ADDRESSES, and Public regimes. mammal take prohibitions. Subsistence Comments Solicited for additional Response: NMFS has coordinated harvest of ringed seals by Alaska information). We encourage those with with Alaska Native communities Natives appears sustainable and does expertise and understanding of those regarding management issues related to not pose a threat to the populations. If physical or biological features which are ice seals through co-management the current situation changes, we will essential to the conservation of the organizations, particularly the ISC. work under the co-management Arctic ringed seal and which may NMFS discussed the listing petitions agreement with the ISC to find the best require special management to submit with the ISC, and provided updates approach to ensure that sustainable written comments. regarding the timeline for the ringed subsistence harvest of these seals by In the response to comment 26 above, seal status review. Following Alaska Natives continues. Protection we explained the criteria that must be publication of the proposed listing under the ESA does not automatically satisfied for any regulation of determination, we notified the ISC of result in specific data collection and subsistence harvest of ringed seals or the proposal and requested comments reporting requirements for the species. trade in their parts to occur under the on the proposed rule. NMFS remains However, benefits of listing a species MMPA. committed to working with Alaska under the ESA can include enhanced We appreciate the ISC’s interest in Natives on conservation and subsistence funding and research opportunities that identifying research priorities and a use of ringed seals. might address aspects of the harvest for mechanism to distribute funds for ice We acknowledge the value of face-to- a listed species. In addition, when a seal research and management. The face meetings, and NMFS held three species is listed under the ESA, ISC’s Ice Seal Management Plan public meetings in: (1) Anchorage, additional protections apply that identifies its biological and subsistence Alaska, on March 7, 2011; (2) Barrow, promote the conservation of the species research recommendations for ice seals. Alaska, on March 22, 2011; and (3) and therefore have the potential to The ISC has provided this management Nome, Alaska, on April 5, 2011. The benefit subsistence harvests. For plan to NMFS and we are taking the logistical difficulties with holding example, section 7 of the ESA requires information into consideration in additional hearings in other remote Federal agencies to ensure that the planning future research (the ISC has communities made it impractical to do activities they authorize, fund, or carry also made a copy of this plan available so. We instead used other methods to out are not likely to jeopardize the at our web site; see ADDRESSES). provide opportunities for the public to submit comments both verbally and in continued existence of the species or to Comments on the ESA Process and writing. With assistance from the North destroy or adversely modify its critical Related Legal and Policy Issues habitat. If a Federal action may affect a Slope and Northwest Arctic boroughs, listed species or its critical habitat, the Comment 53: NMFS received we provided teleconferencing access to action agency must enter into comments that we should consult the Barrow hearing from outlying consultation with NMFS. directly with all of the Alaska Native communities in the North Slope Comment 52: The ISC expressed the communities that could potentially be Borough and from Kotzebue. The public view that, should Arctic ringed seals be affected by the proposed listings, hold hearings in Anchorage and Barrow were listed under the ESA, the Alaska Native public hearings in each of these announced in the Federal Register on community should have a strong role in communities, and consult directly with February 22, 2011 (76 FR 9733), and the determining the terms of subsequent the ISC on the listings. The ISC stated public hearing in Nome was announced management, including (1) that they protest the lack of in the Federal Register on March 18, representation on the recovery team, (2) consultation, request an explanation 2011 (76 FR 14882). The communities of the identification of critical habitat, (3) from NMFS, and require a commitment Kaktovik, Wainwright, Point Lay, Point identification of criteria that must be to be involved in all future aspects of Hope, Nuiqsut, Anaktuvuk Pass, and met before any changes could be the listing process prior to any future Kotzebue participated in the Barrow required in the harvest of ringed seals or public announcement. Some hearing via teleconferencing. The public trade in their parts, (4) identification of commenters, including the ISC, also hearings were attended by research priorities, and (5) identification expressed concern that without holding approximately 88 people. In response to of a mechanism for distribution of funds hearings in more communities where a comments received during the public available for research and management. majority of the ice seal hunters live, comment period that indicated some Some other commenters similarly these communities were not able to tribes may wish to consult on the suggested that local Native subsistence provide informed comments. In proposed rule, we also contacted users should be involved directly and addition, one commenter stated there is potentially affected tribes by mail and have primary roles in any subsistence- confusion and frustration in the Alaska offered them the opportunity to consult related management or monitoring Native community regarding the listing on the proposed action. activities involving ringed seals. process and harvest implications, and We recognize the value of ringed seals Response: We recognize the suggested that a better process is needed to the Inuit of Canada, Alaska, Russia, importance of ringed seals to the Alaska to ensure that all stakeholders have an and Greenland, and we have considered

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all of the comments received from best scientific and commercial data interfere directly with Alaska’s interested parties in our final available after conducting a review of management of ringed seals and their determination. Further, we note that the status of the species and taking into habitat and would therefore harm E.O. 13175 outlines specific account efforts to protect the species. Alaska’s sovereign interests. The State responsibilities of the Federal Based on our review of the best also commented that NMFS’s listing Government in matters affecting the available information on the status of determination impedes Alaska’s ability interests of recognized tribes in the Arctic, Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga to implement its own laws by displacing contiguous 48 states and in Alaska. We ringed seals, and efforts currently being State statutes and regulations addressing have met those obligations in the made to protect these subspecies, we Alaska’s wildlife and natural resources development of this final action. conclude that Arctic, Okhotsk, and generally, and ringed seals specifically. Comment 54: The State of Alaska Baltic ringed seals should be listed as Response: The ESA does not preclude commented that NMFS did not involve threatened and Ladoga ringed seals the State from managing ringed seals or the State in a meaningful manner in should be listed as endangered. Our their habitat. We disagree that the listing either the development of the status supporting analysis is provided in this of a species under the ESA would review report or the proposed listing final rule and is supplemented by our displace a specific state law or rule. responses to peer review and public otherwise impede the State’s ability to Response: We sent a copy of the 90- comments. While listing does not have implement its own laws. We note that day petition finding to ADFG and a direct impact on the loss of sea ice or in 2009 NMFS and ADFG entered into considered all of the comments and the reduction of GHGs, it may indirectly a cooperative agreement for the information submitted in response to enhance national and international conservation of threatened and this finding in the development of the cooperation and coordination of endangered species pursuant to ESA status review report and the proposed conservation efforts; enhance research section 6(c)(1). rule. We also provided funding to ADFG programs; and encourage the Comment 58: The State of Alaska to analyze information and samples development of mitigation measures commented that NMFS’s consideration collected from Alaska Native that could help slow population of the State’s formal conservation subsistence harvest of ringed seals to declines. In addition, the development measures designed to improve the make these data available for inclusion of a recovery plan will guide efforts habitat and food supply of ringed seals in the status review report. Although intended to ensure the long-term is extremely limited, and without any reports on the results of this work were survival and eventual recovery of Arctic supporting analysis. Such limited submitted after the status review report ringed seals. consideration of the State’s conservation was completed and the proposed rule Comment 56: Several commenters, programs fails to comply with NMFS’s was published, we have considered this including the State of Alaska and the affirmative statutory obligation under information in our final determination. ISC, expressed the view that ringed ESA section 4(b) and NMFS’s Policy for During the initial public comment seals and their habitat are adequately the Evaluation of Conservation Efforts. period, we sent a copy of the proposed protected by existing international Response: The ESA provides that rule to ADFG and the Alaska agreements, conservation programs, and NMFS shall make listing determinations Department of Natural Resources laws such as the MMPA. solely on the basis of the best scientific (ADNR), and in those mailings noted the Response: We recognize that there are and commercial data available and after Internet availability of the proposed existing regulatory mechanisms, such as conducting a review of the status of the rule, status review report, and other the MMPA, that include protections for species and taking into account those related materials. In response to ringed seals. However, declining to list efforts, if any, of any state or foreign requests received, including from the a species under the ESA because it is nation to protect such species. NMFS State of Alaska, we extended the public generally protected under other laws has developed a specific Policy for comment period 45 days to provide such as the MMPA would not be Evaluation of Conservation Efforts (68 additional time for submission of consistent with the ESA, which requires FR 15100; March 28, 2003) that comments. We have thoroughly us to list a species based on specified identifies criteria for determining considered the comments submitted by factors and after considering whether formalized conservation efforts the State of Alaska, and these comments conservation efforts being made to that have yet to be implemented or to are addressed in this final rule. protect the species. As discussed in our show effectiveness contribute to making Comment 55: Some commenters analysis under ESA listing Factor A, a listing a species as threatened or expressed the opinion that the ESA is primary concern about the conservation endangered unnecessary. not intended as a means to regulate status of the ringed seal stems from the The State of Alaska asserts that it has potential impacts from climate change, likelihood that its sea ice habitat has implemented laws, regulations, and or that the primary potential threats to been modified by the warming climate mitigation measures that are generally ringed seals identified are the result of and that the scientific consensus aimed at protecting ice seals and their a global phenomenon that cannot be projections are for continued and prey. These ‘‘measures’’ (the most effectively addressed through the ESA, perhaps accelerated warming for the relevant of which are summarized and thus the proposed listings will not foreseeable future. While we below), however, are not specifically provide a significant conservation acknowledge that there is some progress directed toward the conservation of benefit. being made in addressing anthropogenic ringed seals and their ice habitat. For Response: First, this rulemaking does GHG emissions, we also recognize example, the mitigation measures not regulate impacts from climate under listing Factor D that current referenced by the State aim to minimize change. Rather, it lists certain species as mechanisms do not effectively regulate the impact of oil and gas operations, threatened or endangered, thereby the anthropogenic factors that influence rather than proactively or specifically to establishing certain protections for them global climate change and the associated conserve the species. Moreover, the under the ESA. Second, section changes to ringed seal habitat. threats to ringed seals stem principally 4(b)(1)(A) of the ESA states that the Comment 57: The State of Alaska from habitat loss associated with global Secretary shall make listing commented that NMFS’s proposed climate change, a threat the State could determinations solely on the basis of the listing of the Arctic ringed seal would not single-handedly mitigate. Under

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NMFS’s policy and the ESA, governed by Alaska Statutes at Title 46 the continued existence of the species. notwithstanding state conservation and regulations at 18 AAC 75 and 18 We therefore conclude that it is unlikely efforts, ‘‘if the best available scientific AAC 78. that the proposed section 4(d) and commercial data indicate that the We acknowledge that the State of regulations would provide appreciable species meets the definition of Alaska’s regulatory regime may provide conservation benefits. As a result, we ‘endangered species’ or ‘threatened some general benefits to ringed seals have concluded that the 4(d) regulations species’ on the day of the listing and their habitat. However, these laws are not necessary at this time. Such decision, then we must proceed with and regulations do not reduce or regulations could be promulgated at the appropriate rule-making activity mitigate in any material way the some future time if warranted by new under section 4 of the Act,’’ i.e., list the principal threats posed to Arctic ringed information. species (68 FR 15115; March 28, 2003). seals from the projected changes in sea Comment 60: Comments were Finally, in the preamble to the ice habitat. As a result, they do not received that critical habitat is both proposed rule we described our change our extinction risk assessment prudent and determinable; other consideration of the effects of existing within this final listing determination. comments were received that critical programs on the extinctions risk of the Comment 59: Several comments were habitat is not currently determinable four ringed seal subspecies proposed for received regarding the proposed 4(d) and would require extensive additional listing. In response to these comments rules requesting additional analyses to study. from the State of Alaska, we add the support the conclusion that they are Response: Section 4(a)(3) of the ESA following details about the State of necessary and advisable and petitioning requires that, to the maximum extent Alaska’s regulatory programs. NMFS to establish certain limitations on practicable and determinable, critical Under the Submerged Lands Act, the the application of those rules, such as habitat be designated concurrently with State of Alaska has authority over the excluding activities occurring outside the listing of a species. Critical habitat submerged lands and resources therein, the range of any of the subspecies of is not determinable when information within an area extending from the mean ringed seals listed as threatened. sufficient to perform required analyses high tide line to 3 nautical miles Response: For species listed as of the impacts of the designation is offshore. The ADNR Division of Oil and threatened, section 4(d) of the ESA lacking or if the biological needs of the Gas (DOG) develops mitigation requires the Secretary to issue such species are not sufficiently well known measures and lessee advisories as part regulations as are deemed necessary and to permit identification of an area as of its best interest finding process for advisable to provide for the critical habitat. Existing data are lacking area-wide oil and gas lease sales. The conservation of the species. Such 4(d) in several areas necessary to support the North Slope Area-wide and Beaufort Sea protective regulations may prohibit, designation of critical habitat, including Area-wide lease sales have the potential with respect to threatened species, some identification and description of the to affect ringed seals. Mitigation or all of the acts that section 9(a) of the physical and biological features measures and lessee advisories ESA prohibits with respect to essential to the conservation of Arctic identified for these lease sales include endangered species. Both the section ringed seals, and economic data which advisories that ESA-listed and candidate 9(a) prohibitions and section 4(d) would allow for consideration of the species may occur in the lease sale area, regulations apply to all individuals, costs of designation. We have therefore that lessees shall comply with organizations, and agencies subject to determined that designating critical recommended protection measures for U.S. jurisdiction. On December 10, 2010 habitat for the Arctic ringed seal is these species, and that lessees must also (75 FR 77476), we proposed to issue prudent but not determinable at this comply with MMPA provisions. Other protective regulations for ringed seals time. We will designate critical habitat provisions to protect certain under section 4(d) of the ESA to include for Arctic ringed seals in a subsequent concentrations of resources and to all of the prohibitions in section 9(a)(1) rulemaking as provided under the ESA, protect subsistence harvest could based on a preliminary finding that such and we are soliciting comments related provide some incidental benefit to regulations were necessary and to the designation (see DATES, ringed seals. advisable for the conservation of the ADDRESSES, and Information Solicited). The Alaska Department of species. As explained above, in light of Comment 61: Comments were Environmental Conservation’s (ADEC) public comments and upon further received that it is unclear how future mission involves the permitting and review, we have determined that such recovery planning, including authorization of actions relating to oil regulations are not necessary at this establishing accurate recovery and and gas development, oil spill time. The Arctic, Okhotsk, and Baltic delisting criteria, can occur given the prevention and response, pollutant subspecies appear sufficiently abundant apparent lack of abundance data. Other discharge, and other activities affecting to withstand typical year-to-year comments were received expressing Alaska’s land and waters in the Arctic. variation and natural episodic support for recovery planning for ringed State of Alaska solid waste management, perturbations in the near term. The seals. water quality, wastewater, air quality, principal threat to these subspecies of Response: Section 4(f) of the ESA and vehicle emission standards are ringed seals is habitat alteration requires that NMFS develop recovery found in the Alaska Administrative stemming from climate change within plans for ESA listed species, unless Code (AAC) at 18 AAC 60, 18 AAC 70, the foreseeable future. This is a long- such a plan will not promote the 18 AAC 72, 18 AAC 50, and 18 AAC 52, term threat and the consequences for conservation of the species. Section respectively. Oil spill contingency plans ringed seals will manifest themselves 4(f)(1)(A) of the ESA also states that in are required under Alaska Statute AS over the next several decades. Finally, developing and implementing recovery 46.04.030 and at 18 AAC 75 for crude ringed seals currently benefit from plans, the Secretary shall, to the oil tankers, non-crude vessels and existing protections under the MMPA, maximum extent practicable, ‘‘give barges, oil and gas exploration facilities, and activities that may take listed priority to those endangered species or oil flow lines and gathering lines, and species and involve a Federal action threatened species, without regard to for certain non-crude oil terminals and will still be subject to consultation taxonomic classification, that are most non-tank vessels. The ADEC under section 7(a)(2) of the ESA to likely to benefit from such plans.’’ The contaminated sites cleanup process is ensure such actions will not jeopardize ranges of Okhotsk, Baltic, and Ladoga

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ringed seals occur entirely under the Comments on the Consequences of the Response: As noted above, section jurisdiction of other countries. These Proposed Listing Rule 4(b)(1)(A) of the ESA states that the subspecies would therefore qualify for Secretary shall make listing exemption from the ESA section 4(f) Comment 64: Several commenters, determinations based solely on the best recovery planning process because the including the State of Alaska and the scientific and commercial data available U.S. has little authority to implement ISC, expressed concern that the ultimate and the regulations implementing the actions necessary to recover foreign effect of the listings will be additional ESA state that the listing determination species. A recovery plan will be regulatory burden and increased will be made without reference to developed for Arctic ringed seals, economic and other human impacts possible economic or other impacts of provided that the limitations in section without significant conservation benefit. such determinations. Therefore, we 4(a)(1)(A) of the ESA do not apply. Some of these commenters noted that cannot consider such potential Future recovery planning efforts for the the proposed listing would affect an consequences in our final Arctic ringed seal will incorporate the area of national significance because of determination. Regarding listing under best scientific and commercial data its importance for domestic oil and gas CITES, we note that the structure of available regarding abundance at that development. The State of Alaska CITES is similar to the ESA, in that time, and would identify data gaps that specifically expressed concern that the species are listed in CITES Appendices warrant further research. proposed action will cause substantial according to their conservation status. Comment 62: A number of comments injury to Alaska’s economic interests, However, listed CITES species must also stressed that the determination should including those of northern coastal meet the test that trade is at least in part be based on sound scientific data and municipal governments. The State contributing to their decline. We did not analysis. Some comments suggested expressed the view, for example, that find this to be the case for ringed seals. inappropriate factors such as political the listing will deter or delay activities pressure from the climate change debate such as oil and gas exploration and Additional Comments may have influenced our decision development, and shipping operations, Comment 66: The Marine Mammal making. which could reduce State royalties and Commission recommended that NMFS Response: We were petitioned to revenue. One commenter also expressed develop a research plan to address the evaluate the status of the ringed seal concern that the listings could also major uncertainties and information under the ESA. Section 4(b)(1)(A) of the potentially cause resources and efforts gaps identified in the status review ESA requires us to make listing to be distracted away from the report, and strengthen collaborative determinations solely on the basis of the conservation of populations at greater efforts among range nations to facilitate best scientific and commercial data risk. research and management to assess the available. Consistent with this Response: Section 4(b)(1)(A) of the status and trends of ringed seal requirement, in reaching our final ESA states that the Secretary shall make populations throughout the species’ listing determination, we considered the listing determinations based solely on range, and identify protective measures where necessary. Canada’s DFO noted status review report prepared by the the best scientific and commercial data that they remain open to exploring BRT, information received through available, after conducting a status potential areas for cooperation for public and peer review comments, and review of the species and taking into improving mutual understanding of efforts being made to protect the account efforts to protect the species. species. This information is summarized Arctic seal populations. The The regulations implementing the ESA in this final rule. Commission and another commenter at 50 CFR 424.11(b), consistent with Comment 63: A commenter expressed expressed the view that NMFS also case law interpreting the ESA and its the opinion that to provide a meaningful needs to prioritize funding to collect legislative history, state that the listing process in which interested parties data on ringed seal population size and determination will be made without could review and comment on the trends and many other aspects of the reference to possible economic or other special peer review comments, NMFS seal’s biology, such as population impacts of such determination. should have made the original comment structure of the Arctic subspecies, Therefore, we cannot consider such letters available (rather than NMFS’s which are currently poorly understood. ‘‘summary interpretation of those potential consequences in our final Response: We agree that additional comments’’) and opened more than a determination. However, we will research is needed to help resolve areas 30-day comment period. consider economic impacts when of uncertainty and to add to the Response: On April 6, 2012, we designating critical habitat. We also note ecological knowledge of this species. announced in the Federal Register the that such activities have been occurring We look forward to working with our availability of a peer review report that despite the presence of several ESA- partners and stakeholders in the consolidated the comments received listed whale species in the areas. conservation and recovery of ringed from special peer review of the ringed Comment 65: A few commenters, seals, including obtaining needed seal status review report (77 FR 20773). including Greenland’s DFHA, expressed research to fill in knowledge gaps. We issued a news release to ensure that concern that if the Arctic ringed seal is Comment 67: The State of Alaska and the public was made aware of this listed as threatened a negative market another commenter pointed out that the comment period. The comment period perception toward use of seal products proposed rule referred to the ‘‘long was limited to 30 days in consideration could, in turn, impact trade and harm generation time’’ of ringed seals without of the statutory deadline requiring a Inuit communities. These commenters stating what it is. These commenters prompt final listing determination. We suggested that the proposed listing suggested this is an important parameter did not receive any specific requests to could also result in ringed seals being for population projections and extend the comment period. The peer listed under the Convention on the population genetics assessments. review report simply consolidated the International Trade in Endangered Response: Based solely on the type of comments received from the special Species (CITES), which would directly life history that ringed (and other) seals peer reviewers to facilitate public affect the trade of seal products, a vital have evolved, with high adult survival review—the report did not provide our part of the Inuit subsistence lifestyle rates and low birth rates, the species is interpretation of those comments. and economic independence. expected to have a relatively long

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generation time. The age at first Classification responsibilities of the Federal Government in matters affecting tribal reproduction and the birth rate would National Environmental Policy Act interests. Section 161 of Public Law be expected to vary somewhat between (NEPA) regions and years because these 108–199 (188 Stat. 452), as amended by typically depend upon foraging The 1982 amendments to the ESA, in section 518 of Public Law 108–447 (118 conditions. Palo et al. (2001) estimated section 4(b)(1)(A), restrict the Stat. 3267), directs all Federal agencies the generation time of ringed seals to be information that may be considered to consult with Alaska Native when assessing species for listing. Based about 11 years, based on vital statistics corporations on the same basis as Indian on this limitation of criteria for a listing reported by Smith (1973) from seals tribes under E.O. 13175. decision and the opinion in Pacific sampled in the Canadian Arctic during Legal Foundation v. Andrus, 657 F. 2d NMFS has coordinated with Alaska 1966–1970. 829 (6th Cir. 1981), we have concluded Native communities regarding Comment 68: The State of Alaska and that NEPA does not apply to ESA listing management issues related to ice seals another commenter noted that there is a actions. (See NOAA Administrative through co-management organizations, high degree of uncertainty associated Order 216–6.) particularly the ISC. NMFS discussed the listing petition with the ISC and with the ringed seal subspecies Executive Order (E.O.) 12866, identified that should be more explicitly provided updates regarding the timeline Regulatory Flexibility Act, and for the ringed seal status review. acknowledged, and they provided a Paperwork Reduction Act number of references to support this Following publication of the proposed listing determination, we notified the comment. Under the plain language of the ESA and as noted in the Conference Report ISC of the proposal and requested Response: Although the concept of a on the 1982 amendments to the ESA, comments on the proposed rule. subspecies as an identifiable taxon has economic impacts cannot be considered We fully considered all of the been questioned by some evolutionary when assessing the status of a species. comments received from Alaska Native biologists, and has been applied Therefore, the economic analyses organizations and tribes on the inconsistently by taxonomists with required by the Regulatory Flexibility proposed rule and have addressed those respect to the nature and amount of Act are not applicable to the listing comments in this final rule. In response differentiation required for subspecies process. In addition, this rule is exempt to comments received during the public designation, the concept remains in from review under E.O. 12866. This rule comment period that indicated some wide use and there is clearly no does not contain a collection of tribes may wish to consult on the consensus to abandon it. In the case of information requirement for the proposed rule, we contacted potentially ringed seals, the five subspecies purposes of the Paperwork Reduction affected tribes by mail and offered them designations have been in wide use for Act. the opportunity to consult on the many years (for details see Kelly et al., E.O. 13132, Federalism proposed action and discuss any 2010a) and constitute the best scientific concerns they may have. No requests for and commercial data available. There is E.O. 13132 requires agencies to take into account any federalism impacts of consultation were received in response clearly no means of dispersal between to this mailing. the landlocked subspecies in Lake regulations under development. It Saimaa and Lake Ladoga, or between includes specific directives for References Cited consultation in situations where a those subspecies and the remaining A complete list of all references cited three subspecies. The BRT presented regulation will preempt state law or impose substantial direct compliance in this rulemaking can be found on our and considered reasonable evidence in costs on state and local governments Web site at http:// the status review report that, although (unless required by statute). Neither of alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/ and is there could be some exchange of those circumstances is applicable to this available upon request from the NMFS individuals between Arctic ringed seals rule. office in Juneau, Alaska (see and the subspecies in the Baltic Sea or ADDRESSES). Sea of Okhotsk, there is no documented E.O. 13175, Consultation and evidence of exchange rates that would Coordination With Indian Tribal List of Subjects Governments be sufficient to fuel a recovery of the 50 CFR Part 223 latter populations if they were to The longstanding and distinctive become severely depleted. Thus, all five relationship between the Federal and Endangered and threatened species, of the widely-recognized subspecies are tribal governments is defined by Exports, Imports, Transportation. appropriate for consideration of whether treaties, statutes, executive orders, 50 CFR Part 224 a listing is warranted. judicial decisions, and co-management Comment 69: A commenter noted that agreements, which differentiate tribal Endangered and threatened species, the Society for Marine Mammalogy governments from the other entities that Exports, Reporting and recordkeeping Committee on Taxonomy currently deal with, or are affected by, the Federal requirements. assigns the ringed seal species and the Government. This relationship has given rise to a special Federal trust Dated: December 20, 2012. five subspecies to the genus Pusa rather responsibility involving the legal Alan D. Risenhoover, than Phoca. responsibilities and obligations of the Director, Office of Sustainable Fisheries, Response: The status review report United States toward Indian Tribes and performing the functions and duties of the presented and considered a current lack the application of fiduciary standards of Deputy Assistant Administrator for of consensus on placement of ringed due care with respect to Indian lands, Regulatory Programs National Marine seals in the genus Pusa or Phoca tribal trust resources, and the exercise of Fisheries Service. (perhaps in a subgenus Pusa). The tribal rights. E.O. 13175—Consultation For the reasons set out in the proposal to list ringed seals is not and Coordination with Indian Tribal preamble, 50 CFR parts 223 and 224 are dependent on the nomenclature used. Governments—outlines the amended as follows:

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PART 223—THREATENED MARINE Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1531–1543; subpart B, ■ 2. In § 223.102, in the table, add AND ANADROMOUS SPECIES § 223.201–202 also issued under 16 U.S.C. paragraphs (a)(4), (a)(5), and (a)(6) to 1361 et seq.; 16 U.S.C. 5503(d) for read as follows: ■ § 223.206(d)(9). 1. The authority citation for part 223 § 223.102 Enumeration of threatened continues to read as follows: marine and anadromous species. * * * * *

Species 1 Citation(s) for Where listed Citation(s) for listing critical habitat Common name Scientific name determination(s) designation(s)

******* (4) Ringed seal, Arctic Phoca (=Pusa) hispida The Arctic subspecies of the ringed seal in- [INSERT FR CITA- NA subspecies. hispida. cludes all ringed seals from breeding popu- TION & 12/28/12]. lations in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas except west of 157° E. Long., or west of the Kamchatka Peninsula, where breed- ing populations of ringed seals of the Okhotsk subspecies are listed as threat- ened under § 223.102(a)(5); or in the Baltic Sea where breeding populations of ringed seals are listed as threatened under § 223.102(a)(6). (5) Ringed seal, Phoca (=Pusa) hispida The Okhotsk subspecies of the ringed seal in- [INSERT FR CITA- NA Okhotsk subspecies. ochotensis. cludes all ringed seals from breeding popu- TION & 12/28/12]. lations west of 157° E. Long., or west of the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the Pacific Ocean. (6) Ringed seal, Baltic Phoca (=Pusa) hispida The Baltic subspecies of the ringed seal in- [INSERT FR CITA- NA subspecies. botnica. cludes all ringed seals from breeding popu- TION & 12/28/12]. lations within the Baltic Sea.

******* 1 Species includes taxonomic species, subspecies, distinct population segments (DPSs) (for a policy statement; see 61 FR4722, February 7, 1996), and evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) (for a policy statement; see 56 FR 58612, November 20, 1991).

* * * * * § 224.101 [Amended] J, K and L pods, wherever they are ■ 4. In § 224.101, amend paragraph (b) found in the wild, and not including PART 224—ENDANGERED MARINE by adding the phrase ‘‘Ladoga ringed Southern Resident killer whales placed AND ANADROMOUS SPECIES seal (Phoca (=Pusa) hispida in captivity prior to listing or their ■ 3. The authority citation for part 224 ladogensis);’’ immediately after the captive born progeny;’’. continues to read as follows: phrase ’’ Killer whale (Orcinus orca), [FR Doc. 2012–31066 Filed 12–21–12; 4:15 pm] Southern Resident distinct population BILLING CODE 3510–22–P Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1531–1543 and 16 segment, which consists of whales from U.S.C. 1361 et seq.

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