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Changing Nature of Competition in the Weak Party System of Hybrid Regime in Pakistan Ph.D

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PhD Program in Political Theory, Political History and Political Science Changing Nature of Competition in the Weak Party System of Hybrid Regime in Pakistan Ph.D. Candidate: Muhammad Salman Supervisor: Prof. Lorenzo De. Sio Abstract Pakistan as different post-colonial states had experienced three military rules till 2008 since its inception in 1947. During and in between different military rule political parties did not cease to exist barring few. These parties have been engaged in a contentious competition among each other that has paved the way for different military rules. After the end of last military rule in 2008 Pakistan had gone through three consecutive elections with three different parties gaining majority. During this period the nature of competition has been oscillating between contentious and cooperative forms. This dissertation combines the theoretical traditions of hybrid regimes and party-system institutionalization to explain the changing political dynamics of Pakistan. Case of Pakistan is analyzed with reference to configurative approach of Gilbert and Mohseni (2011) in linkage with the concept of party-system institutionalization (PSI), proposed by Mainwaring and Scully (1995). It is proposed that in the presence of current degree of PSI in Pakistan, hybridity of the regime will persist. Key words: Hybrid regime, Party-system Institutionalization, Competition, Party Rootedness, Tutelary Interference Acknowledgement: I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my Supervisor Prof. Lorenzo De. Sio, whose guidance and inputs have enabled me to improve my research. I would also like to thank my university, LUISS Guido Carli for providing me an amazing opportunity to study is such an esteemed institution. I would also like to thank, School of Politics and IR, Quaid-e-Azam, University Islamabad for facilitating my field work. Last but not the least I would like to express my gratitude to my parents and my wife who provided immense moral support which enabled me to complete this dissertation. TABLE OF CONTENTS A. Introduction ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 1 B. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework……………………………………………………………………… 2 C. State of the Art i. Hybrid Regimes…………………………………………………………………………………………………4 ii. Party System and Political Parties……………………………………………………………………..8 D. Research Methodology i. Case Study Method…………………………………………………………………………………………..11 ii. Process Tracing…………………………………………………………………………………………………13 iii. Process Tracing in this Dissertation…………………………………………………………………..16 iv. Case Selection of Pakistan………………………………………………………………………………..18 v. Research Objectives………………………………………………………………………………………….20 vi. Research Questions………………………………………………………………………………………….20 vii. Sources…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….20 viii. Research Division……………………………………………………………………………………………..21 ix. References………………………………………………………………………………………………………..21 Chapter 1. Party System Institutionalization and Hybrid Regimes A. Hybrid Regimes i. Diminished Sub-Types……………………………………………………………………………………..25 ii. Explaining Hybrid Regime………………………………………………………………………………..27 iii. Defining Hybrid Regime…………………………………………………………………………………..33 B. Party System Institutionalization i. Significance and Typologies of Political Parties………………………………………………..35 ii. Explaining Party System and Emergence of New Parties…………………………………..40 iii. Towards the Institutionalization of Party System……………………………………………..43 C. Linkage of Weak PSI with Hybrid Regimes……………………………………………………………………48 D. Party System Institutionalization in Different Hybrid Regimes i. Latin America…………………………………………………………………………………………………..50 ii. East Asia…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..52 iii. Africa……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….53 iv. Hybrid Regime in Turkey………………………………………………………………………………….55 References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….58 Chapter 2. Forty Years of Civil and Military Authoritarianism (1947-1988): A Tale of Political Volatility A. Creation of Pakistan as a Result of Contentious Political Process………………………………… 61 B. Constitutional and Political Crisis…………………………………………………………………………………64 C. Adoption of Constitution and its Aftermath…………………………………………………………………67 D. Impact of the Inchoate Party System…………………………………………………………………………..69 E. Ayub Khan’s Military Rule: Experimentation with “Democracy”………………………………….71 i. Resurgence of Political Parties and Presidential Elections of 1965…………………73 ii. 1970 Elections and Dismemberment of Pakistan…………………………………………..74 F. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto: A Democrat with an Authoritarian Mindset………………………………..75 i. From Civil Martial Law Administrator to Prime Minister………………………………..76 ii. Unfulfilled Promise of Reforms………………………………………………………………………78 iii. Relations with Provincial Governments and Political Opponents……………………80 iv. Elections of 1977 and Fall of Bhutto……………………………………………………………….81 G. Zia-ul-Haq, Islamization and its Impact on Society of Pakistan…………………………………...84 References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..87 Chapter 3. A New Party System and Consolidation of a Hybrid Regime A. Benazir’s First Tenure: A Tale of Compromises, Corruption and Tutelary Interference….90 B. Nawaz Sharif’s First Tenure: Rise and Fall Under the Tutelage of Military…………………….93 C. Benazir’s Second Tenure: A Tale of Betrayal………………………………………………………………...95 D. Nawaz Sharif’s Second Tenure: Turning Against the Former Patron………………………………96 E. Rule of Pervez Musharraf: A Parliamentary Authoritarian Regime……………………………….100 i. Party System During Musharraf Era…………………………………………………………………102 ii. The Judicial Activism and its Role in Regime Change………………………………………..104 F. Zardari’s Rule: Combining Reconciliation with Confrontation………………………………………107 i. 18th Amendment and NFC Award: Strengthening Federation or Weakening the State? ................................................................................................................108 ii. Memogate and Judicial Activism: Surviving Through A Political Crisis……………….110 G. 2013 Elections: Return of Nawaz Shari Amidst Changing Party System…………………………162 i. Dharna (Sit-in) Politics of PTI and Renewed Civil-Military Tensions…………………..114 ii. Panama Verdict and its Aftermath……………………………………………………………………116 H. Army Act Fiasco: Judiciary’s Challenge to the Military and Capitulation of Political Parties ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….119 References…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….122 Chapter 4. Making Sense of the Historical Trajectory: Intensifying Competition, Struggling Parties and Resilient Tutelary Actors A. Competitiveness……………………………………………………………………………………………………………128 B. Party Rootedness, Party Organization and Party Identification………………………………………136 C. Horizontal and Diagonal Accountability: NAB, Judiciary and Media……………………………….149 D. Tutelary Interference and its impact on Party System and Civil Liberties………………………...155 E. Concluding Remarks and Significance of the Study………………………………………….……………..163 References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………165 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….169 Changing Nature of Competition in the Weak Party System of Hybrid Regime of Pakistan A. Introduction On 10 July 2017, a five-member bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan disqualified Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the charges of asset concealment. The country’s apex anti-corruption body, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), was also directed to prepare references against the Prime Minister's children (Dsouza, 2017). It is not the first time that Sharif has failed to complete his tenure. Earlier, he was twice dismissed by the President and by a military coup during the 1990s. During the first democratic government after 2007, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was also de-seated on contempt of court charges. The court punished him for non- compliance of its order to formally request the Swiss authorities to furnish asset details of the then President Asif Ali Zardari (Daily Dawn, June 19, 2012)i. Their respective parties continued to rule, and the parliaments completed their tenures, whereas this was not the case in the 1990s. The recent disqualification of Nawaz Sharif was followed by an active narrative-building campaign from his party, which nearly accused the Supreme Court of dismissing a sitting PM in collusion with the military establishment. Pakistan’s military has directly and indirectly intervened in the country’s politics (Paul, 2014; Talbot; 2017). Four military regimes have usurped power since the country’s inception in 1947. The civilian governments of the 1970s and 1990s either ended through a military coup or by the plotting of military and opposition parties against incumbents. However, since 2008, one civilian government did not only complete its tenure, but a relatively smooth transfer of power to another civilian government also took place (Adeney, 2017). Numerous factors contributed to this transition. One crucial determinant is the growth of electronic media, which has strengthened the element of media pluralism, even though the media is not entirely free. A second factor is the stronger role the judiciary has assumed following the later stages of the Musharraf regime, wherein a massive lawyers' movement regarding the restoration of dismissed judges also strengthened the civil society in Pakistan (Belokrenisky and Moskalenko, 2013). A 1 third important factor, which is the focus of this research, is the changing dynamics of the party system in Pakistan. The nature of the party system during the civilian rule in the 1970s and 1990s was highly contentious
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