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Front Matter Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information Party Competition between Unequals Why do some political parties flourish while others flounder? In this book, Bonnie M. Meguid examines variation in the electoral trajectories of the new set of single-issue parties: green, radical right, and ethnoterritorial parties. Instead of being dictated by electoral institutions or the socio-economic climate, as the dominant theories contend, the fortunes of these niche parties, she argues, are shaped by the strategic responses of mainstream parties. She advances a new theory of party competition in which mainstream parties facing unequal competitors have access to a wider and more effective set of strategies than posited by standard spatial models. Combin- ing statistical analyses with in-depth case studies from Western Europe, the book explores how and why established parties undermine niche parties or turn them into weapons against their mainstream party opponents. This study of competition between unequals thus provides broader insights into the nature and outcome of competition between political equals. Bonnie M. Meguid is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Rochester. Her research on party competition has been published in The American Political Science Review. Her research has been funded by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Krupp Foundation, and her doctoral dissertation was awarded the Samuel H. Beer Prize for Best PhD Dissertation on British Politics by the British Politics Group. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics General Editor Margaret Levi University of Washington, Seattle Assistant General Editor Stephen Hanson University of Washington, Seattle Associate Editors Robert H. Bates Harvard University Helen Milner Princeton University Frances Rosenbluth Yale University Susan Stokes Yale University Sidney Tarrow Cornell University Kathleen Thelen Northwestern University Erik Wibbels University of Washington, Seattle Other Books in the Series Lisa Baldez, Why Women Protest: Women’s Movements in Chile Stefano Bartolini, The Political Mobilization of the European Left, 1860–1980: The Class Cleavage Mark Beissinger, Nationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State Nancy Bermeo, ed., Unemployment in the New Europe Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution Carles Boix, Political Parties, Growth, and Equality: Conservative and Social Demo- cratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy Catherine Boone, Merchant Capital and the Roots of State Power in Senegal, 1930– 1985 Catherine Boone, Political Topographies of the African State: TerritorialAuthority and Institutional Change Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective Michael Bratton, Robert Mattes, and E. Gyimah-Boadi, Public Opinion, Democ- racy, and Market Reform in Africa Valerie Bunce, Leaving Socialism and Leaving the State: The End of Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, and Czechoslovakia Daniele Caramani, The Nationalization of Politics: The Formation of National Elec- torates and Party Systems in Europe Continued after the Index © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information To Michael and in Memory of my Grandmothers © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information Party Competition between Unequals STRATEGIES AND ELECTORAL FORTUNES IN WESTERN EUROPE BONNIE M. MEGUID University of Rochester © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sao˜ Paulo, Delhi Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, ny 10013-2473, usa www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521887656 C Bonnie M. Meguid 2008 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2008 Printed in the United States of America A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Meguid, Bonnie M., 1973– Party competition between unequals : strategies and electoral fortunes in Western Europe / Bonnie M. Meguid. p. cm. – (Cambridge studies in comparative politics) Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn 978-0-521-88765-6 (hardback) 1. Political parties – Europe, Western – Case studies. 2. Power (Social sciences) – Europe, Western – Case studies. 3. Europe, Western – Politics and government – 1989– I. Title. II. Series. jn94.a979m44 2007 324.2094–dc22 2007036840 isbn 978-0-521-88765-6 hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information Contents List of Tables and Figures page viii List of Abbreviations and Acronyms xi Acknowledgments xv 1 THE NICHE PARTY PHENOMENON 1 2 POSITION, SALIENCE, AND OWNERSHIP: A STRATEGIC THEORY OF NICHE PARTY SUCCESS 22 3 AN ANALYSIS OF NICHE PARTY FORTUNES IN WESTERN EUROPE 41 4 A THEORY OF STRATEGIC CHOICE 91 5 STEALING THE ENVIRONMENTAL TITLE: BRITISH MAINSTREAM PARTY STRATEGIES AND THE CONTAINMENT OF THE GREEN PARTY 110 6 “THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND”: FRENCH MAINSTREAM PARTY STRATEGIES AND THE SUCCESS OF THE FRENCH FRONT NATIONAL 143 7 AN UNEQUAL BATTLE OF OPPOSING FORCES: MAINSTREAM PARTY STRATEGIES AND THE SUCCESS OF THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY 192 8 CROSS-NATIONAL COMPARISONS AND EXTENSIONS 247 9 CONCLUSIONS: BROADER LESSONS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN UNEQUALS 273 References 283 Index 305 vii © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information List of Tables and Figures tables 1.1 Niche Parties in Western European Countries, 1960–2000 page 5 1.2 Electoral Fortunes of Niche Parties in Britain and France, 1970–2000 19 2.1 Predicted Effects of the PSO Theory’s Issue-Based Strategies (in Isolation) 30 2.2 Predicted Effects of Mainstream Party Strategic Combinations on Niche Party Electoral Support 34 2.3 Testable Hypotheses of the PSO Theory of Party Competition 39 3.1 Niche Parties in Western Europe 45 3.2 Mainstream Parties in Western Europe 47 3.3 Incidence of Mainstream Party Strategies toward Green and Radical Right Parties per Electoral Period from 1970 to 1998 50 3.4 Multivariate Analyses of Niche Party Vote Percentage: Nonstrategic Models 55 3.5 Multivariate Analyses of Niche Party Vote Percentage: Strategic Models 58 3.6 Predicted versus Observed Effects of Strategies on Niche Party Vote Percentage: Assessing the Standard Spatial Theory’s Predictions 61 3.7 Incidence of Mainstream Party Strategies by Niche Party Family as Measured per Electoral Period from 1970 to 1998 63 3.8 Multivariate Analyses of Niche Party Vote Percentage: Party-Specific Strategic Models 65 3.9 Ethnoterritorial Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis 70 viii © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information Tables and Figures ix 3.10 Incidence of Mainstream Party Strategies toward Ethnoterritorial Parties as Measured per Electoral Period from 1970 to 1996 71 3.11 Multivariate Analyses of Ethnoterritorial Party Regional Vote Percentage 74 3.12 Electoral Trajectory of a Radical Right Party 77 3.13 Electoral Trajectory of an Ethnoterritorial Party 80 A3.1 Green Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis, 1970–98 84 A3.2 Radical Right Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis, 1970–98 85 A3.3 Ethnoterritorial Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis, 1970–96 86 A3.4a Descriptive Statistics for Select Variables from the Pooled Analysis of Green and Radical Right Party Vote 87 A3.4b Descriptive Statistics for Select Variables from the Analysis of Ethnoterritorial Party Vote 88 A3.5a Definitions of the CMP Variables Used to Capture Mainstream Party Strategies toward Green Parties 89 A3.5b Definitions of the CMP Variables Used to Capture Mainstream
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