Front Matter

Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information

Party Competition between Unequals

Why do some political parties ﬂourish while others ﬂounder? In this book, Bonnie M. Meguid examines variation in the electoral trajectories of the new set of single-issue parties: green, radical right, and ethnoterritorial parties. Instead of being dictated by electoral institutions or the socio-economic climate, as the dominant theories contend, the fortunes of these niche parties, she argues, are shaped by the strategic responses of mainstream parties. She advances a new theory of party competition in which mainstream parties facing unequal competitors have access to a wider and more effective set of strategies than posited by standard spatial models. Combin- ing statistical analyses with in-depth case studies from Western Europe, the book explores how and why established parties undermine niche parties or turn them into weapons against their mainstream party opponents. This study of competition between unequals thus provides broader insights into the nature and outcome of competition between political equals.

Bonnie M. Meguid is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Rochester. Her research on party competition has been published in The American Political Science Review. Her research has been funded by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Krupp Foundation, and her doctoral dissertation was awarded the Samuel H. Beer Prize for Best PhD Dissertation on British Politics by the British Politics Group.

© Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-88765-6 - Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Bonnie M. Meguid Frontmatter More information

Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics

General Editor Margaret Levi University of Washington, Seattle

Assistant General Editor Stephen Hanson University of Washington, Seattle

Associate Editors Robert H. Bates Harvard University Helen Milner Princeton University Frances Rosenbluth Yale University Susan Stokes Yale University Sidney Tarrow Cornell University Kathleen Thelen Northwestern University Erik Wibbels University of Washington, Seattle

Other Books in the Series

Lisa Baldez, Why Women Protest: Women’s Movements in Chile Stefano Bartolini, The Political Mobilization of the European Left, 1860–1980: The Class Cleavage Mark Beissinger, Nationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State Nancy Bermeo, ed., Unemployment in the New Europe Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution Carles Boix, Political Parties, Growth, and Equality: Conservative and Social Demo- cratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy Catherine Boone, Merchant Capital and the Roots of State Power in Senegal, 1930– 1985 Catherine Boone, Political Topographies of the African State: TerritorialAuthority and Institutional Change Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective Michael Bratton, Robert Mattes, and E. Gyimah-Boadi, Public Opinion, Democ- racy, and Market Reform in Africa Valerie Bunce, Leaving Socialism and Leaving the State: The End of Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, and Czechoslovakia Daniele Caramani, The Nationalization of Politics: The Formation of National Elec- torates and Party Systems in Europe

Continued after the Index

To Michael and in Memory of my Grandmothers

Party Competition between Unequals

STRATEGIES AND ELECTORAL FORTUNES IN WESTERN EUROPE

BONNIE M. MEGUID University of Rochester

cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sao˜ Paulo, Delhi

Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, ny 10013-2473, usa www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521887656

C Bonnie M. Meguid 2008

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2008

Printed in the United States of America

A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Meguid, Bonnie M., 1973– Party competition between unequals : strategies and electoral fortunes in Western Europe / Bonnie M. Meguid. p. cm. – (Cambridge studies in comparative politics) Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn 978-0-521-88765-6 (hardback) 1. Political parties – Europe, Western – Case studies. 2. Power (Social sciences) – Europe, Western – Case studies. 3. Europe, Western – Politics and government – 1989– I. Title. II. Series. jn94.a979m44 2007 324.2094–dc22 2007036840

isbn 978-0-521-88765-6 hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

Contents

List of Tables and Figures page viii List of Abbreviations and Acronyms xi Acknowledgments xv

1 THE NICHE PARTY PHENOMENON 1 2 POSITION, SALIENCE, AND OWNERSHIP: A STRATEGIC THEORY OF NICHE PARTY SUCCESS 22 3 AN ANALYSIS OF NICHE PARTY FORTUNES IN WESTERN EUROPE 41 4 A THEORY OF STRATEGIC CHOICE 91 5 STEALING THE ENVIRONMENTAL TITLE: BRITISH MAINSTREAM PARTY STRATEGIES AND THE CONTAINMENT OF THE GREEN PARTY 110 6 “THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND”: FRENCH MAINSTREAM PARTY STRATEGIES AND THE SUCCESS OF THE FRENCH FRONT NATIONAL 143 7 AN UNEQUAL BATTLE OF OPPOSING FORCES: MAINSTREAM PARTY STRATEGIES AND THE SUCCESS OF THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY 192 8 CROSS-NATIONAL COMPARISONS AND EXTENSIONS 247 9 CONCLUSIONS: BROADER LESSONS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN UNEQUALS 273

References 283 Index 305

vii

List of Tables and Figures

tables 1.1 Niche Parties in Western European Countries, 1960–2000 page 5 1.2 Electoral Fortunes of Niche Parties in Britain and France, 1970–2000 19 2.1 Predicted Effects of the PSO Theory’s Issue-Based Strategies (in Isolation) 30 2.2 Predicted Effects of Mainstream Party Strategic Combinations on Niche Party Electoral Support 34 2.3 Testable Hypotheses of the PSO Theory of Party Competition 39 3.1 Niche Parties in Western Europe 45 3.2 Mainstream Parties in Western Europe 47 3.3 Incidence of Mainstream Party Strategies toward Green and Radical Right Parties per Electoral Period from 1970 to 1998 50 3.4 Multivariate Analyses of Niche Party Vote Percentage: Nonstrategic Models 55 3.5 Multivariate Analyses of Niche Party Vote Percentage: Strategic Models 58 3.6 Predicted versus Observed Effects of Strategies on Niche Party Vote Percentage: Assessing the Standard Spatial Theory’s Predictions 61 3.7 Incidence of Mainstream Party Strategies by Niche Party Family as Measured per Electoral Period from 1970 to 1998 63 3.8 Multivariate Analyses of Niche Party Vote Percentage: Party-Speciﬁc Strategic Models 65 3.9 Ethnoterritorial Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis 70

viii

Tables and Figures ix

3.10 Incidence of Mainstream Party Strategies toward Ethnoterritorial Parties as Measured per Electoral Period from 1970 to 1996 71 3.11 Multivariate Analyses of Ethnoterritorial Party Regional Vote Percentage 74 3.12 Electoral Trajectory of a Radical Right Party 77 3.13 Electoral Trajectory of an Ethnoterritorial Party 80 A3.1 Green Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis, 1970–98 84 A3.2 Radical Right Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis, 1970–98 85 A3.3 Ethnoterritorial Parties of Western Europe Included in the Analysis, 1970–96 86 A3.4a Descriptive Statistics for Select Variables from the Pooled Analysis of Green and Radical Right Party Vote 87 A3.4b Descriptive Statistics for Select Variables from the Analysis of Ethnoterritorial Party Vote 88 A3.5a Definitions of the CMP Variables Used to Capture Mainstream Party Strategies toward Green Parties 89 A3.5b Definitions of the CMP Variables Used to Capture Mainstream Party Strategies toward Radical Right Parties 90 A3.5c Definitions of the CMP Variables Used to Capture Mainstream Party Strategies toward Ethnoterritorial Parties 90 4.1 Hypotheses of the PSO Theory of Strategic Choice 108 5.1 Electoral Strength of British Mainstream Parties, 1955–97 114 6.1 Electoral Strength of French Mainstream Parties in the Fifth Republic, 1958–97 146 7.1 Post–World War II General Election Results for Scotland 196 7.2 SNP Performance in Westminster Parliamentary Elections 198 8.1 Electoral Outcomes of Mainstream Party Strategies across British and French Niche Party Cases 249

figures 3.1 Electoral Trajectory of the French Front National: Actual versus Predicted (with 95 percent confidence intervals) 78 3.2 Electoral Trajectory of the Basque Parties (PNV and HB): Actual versus Predicted (with 95 percent confidence intervals) 81 5.1 British Party Identification, 1964–97 112 5.2 Decline of Strong Party Identification among British Partisans 113 5.3 British Green Party Support in Nationwide Elections 116 5.4 Salience of the Environmental Issue in Britain 135 5.5 Environmental Issue Ownership in Britain 136 6.1 Electoral Support of the French Front National 149

x Tables and Figures

6.2 Electoral Support of the French Front National with Mainstream Party Strategies 155 6.3 Salience of the Immigration Issue in France 185 7.1 Scottish Partisan Identiﬁcation, 1974–97 194 7.2 Decline in Strength of Party Identiﬁcation among Scottish Partisans 195 7.3 Scottish National Party Electoral Support 203 7.4 Partisan Preference Distribution on How to Govern Scotland, October 1974 211 7.5 Salience of the Devolution Issue to the Scottish Electorate 233 7.6 Public Support for the SNP in Scotland 235 7.7 Partisan Preference Distribution on How to Govern Scotland, 1979 239

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

political party abbreviations and acronyms AGALEV Anders Gaan Leven (Live Differently [Flemish Greens]), Belgium AN Alleanza Nazionale (National Alliance), Italy AP Alianza Popular (Popular Alliance), Spain CDC Convergencia` Democratica` de Catalunya (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia), Spain CDU Christlich Demokratische Union (Christian Democratic Union), Germany CiU Convergencia` i Unio´ (Convergence and Unity), Spain CSU Christlich Soziale Union (Christian Social Union), Germany CSV Chreschtlech¨ Sozial Vollekspartei (Christian Social Party), Luxembourg CVP/PDC Christlichdemokratische Volkspartei (Christian Democratic People’s Party [German])/Parti democrate-chr´ etien´ suisse (Swiss Christian Democratic Party [French]), Switzerland DC Democrazia Cristiana (Christian Democrats), Italy DNA Det Norske Arbeiderparti (Norwegian Labor Party), Norway DVU Deutsche Volksunion (German People’s Union), Germany Ecolo Ecologistes´ (Ecologists [French]), Belgium ERC Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan Republican Left), Spain FDF Front Democratique´ des Francophones (Francophone Democratic Front), Belgium FDP Freie Demokratische Partei (Free Democratic Party), Germany FN Front National (National Front), France FPO¨ Freiheitliche Partei Osterreichs¨ (Austrian Freedom Party), Austria GE Gen´ eration´ Ecologie´ (Ecology Generation), France

xii Abbreviations and Acronyms

H Høyre (Conservatives), Norway HB Herri Batasuna (United People), Spain KF Konservative Folkeparti (Conservative People’s Party), Denmark KOK Kansallinen Kokoomus (National Coalition), Finland LN Lega Nord per l’indipendenza della Padania (Northern League for the Independence of Padania), Italy LSAP Letzebuerger¨ Sozialistesch Arbechterpartei (Luxembourg Socialist Workers’ Party), Luxembourg M Moderata Samlingspartiet (Moderate Unity Party), Sweden MSI Movimento Sociale Italiano (Italian Social Movement), Italy ND Nea Demokratia (New Democracy), Greece NF National Front, U.K. OIKIPA Ikologiko Kinima Politikis Anagennisis (Ecological Movement – Political Resistance), Greece OVP¨ Osterreichische¨ Volkspartei (Austrian People’s Party), Austria PASOK Panhellinio Sosialistiko Kinima (Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement), Greece PC Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales), U.K. PCF Parti communiste franc¸ais (French Communist Party), France PCI Partito Comunista Italiano (Italian Communist Party), Italy PNV Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque Nationalist Party), Spain PP Partido Popular (Popular Party), Spain PRL/PVV Parti reformateur´ liberal´ (Liberal Reform Party [French])/Partij voor Vrijheid en Vooruitgang (Party of Liberty and Progress [Flemish]), Belgium PS Parti socialiste (Socialist Party), France PS/SP Parti socialiste (Socialist Party [French])/Socialistische Partij (Socialist Party [Flemish]), Belgium PSC Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (Socialist Party of Catalonia), Spain PSD Partido Social Democrata´ (Portuguese Social Democractic Party), Portugal PSOE Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol˜ (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party), Spain PSP Partido Socialista Portuguesˆ (Portuguese Socialist Party), Portugal PvdA Partij van de Arbeid (Labor Party), Netherlands RPR Rassemblement pour la republique´ (Rally for the Republic), France RW Rassemblement Wallon (Walloon Rally), Belgium SAP Sveriges Socialdemokratiska Arbetareparti (Swedish Social Democratic Party), Sweden SD Socialdemokratiet (Social Democratic Party), Denmark SNP Scottish National Party, U.K.

Abbreviations and Acronyms xiii

SPD Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (German Social Democratic Party), Germany SPO¨ Sozialistische Partei Osterreichs¨ (Austrian Socialist Party), Austria SPS/PSS Sozialdemokratische Partei der Schweiz (Swiss Social Democratic Party [German])/Parti socialiste suisse (Swiss Socialist Party [French]), Switzerland SSDP Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (Finnish Social Democratic Party), Finland UDB Union Democratique´ Bretonne (Breton Democratic Union), France UDC Unio´ Democratica` de Catalunya (Democratic Union of Catalonia), Spain UDF Union pour la democratie´ franc¸aise (Union for French Democracy), France UPC Unione di u Populu Corsu (Corsican People’s Union), France VGO¨ Vereinte Grune¨ Osterreichs¨ (United Greens of Austria), Austria VVD Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy), Netherlands

data source abbreviations and acronyms CCO Conservative Central Office, London, United Kingdom CEVIPOF Centre d’etudes´ de la vie politique française (Center for the Study of French Political Life), Paris, France CPA Conservative Party Archives, Bodleian Library, Oxford, United Kingdom CRAPS Centre de recherches administratives, politiques et sociales (Center for Administrative, Political, and Social Research), Lille, France CRD Conservative Research Department FNSP Fondation nationale des sciences politiques (National Foundation of Political Sciences), Paris, France IFOP Institut français d’opinion publique (French Institute of Public Opinion), Paris, France LCC Leader’s Consultative Committee, also known as the Shadow Cabinet, British Conservative Party LPA Labour Party Archives, National Museum of Labour History, Manchester, United Kingdom NEC National Executive Committee, British Labour Party OURS Office universitaire de recherche socialiste (Academic Office of Socialist Research), Paris, France SOFRES Societ´ e´ française d’enquetesˆ par sondage (French Society of Polling Inquiries), France

Acknowledgments

This project has benefited from the guidance and assistance of many people and organizations. I would like to start by thanking my dissertation committee, Peter Hall, Torben Iversen, and Jorge Domınguez,´ who first shaped my ideas about the competition of mainstream and niche parties during my doctoral work at Harvard. Peter Hall has been a generous and inspiring mentor. His countless thought-provoking comments and suggestions both during and since the dissertation phase have influenced my ideas, my writing, and the scope of this project. TorbenIversen introduced me to the field of party competition and spatial model- ing and provided invaluable feedback on both my theoretical and empirical argu- ments. Jorge Domınguez´ repeatedly amazed me with his knowledge of European party politics and provided new perspectives along with detailed comments and thoughtful advice. Many others have been critical to the articulation and execution of this project. I am extremely grateful to James Adams and Michael Laver for reading the entire manuscript and offering suggestions for revisions. I am also thankful to the many other scholars who have read and provided helpful comments and critiques on various parts of the project and manuscript over the years. Although the number of people in this group is too long to list, I particularly thank Jim Alt, Eric´ Belanger,´ Ted Brader, Barry Burden, Kevin Clarke, Mark Duckenfield, Mark Fey, Matt Golder, Sona N. Golder, Anna Grzymala-Busse, Tim Hellwig, Gretchen Helmke, Sunshine Hillygus, Michael Jones-Correa, TasosKalandrakis, Orit Kedar, Gary King, Miki Caul Kittilson, Ken Kollman, Gary Marks, Tony Messina, Dick Niemi, Susan Pharr, Bing Powell, David Primo, Susan Scarrow, Ethan Scheiner, Cindy Skach, Jae-Jae Spoon, Josh Tucker, and Carolyn Warner. Participants in various workshops and seminars at Harvard University, the Kel- logg Institute at the University of Notre Dame, the University of Michigan, Princeton University, and Wesleyan University provided stimulating questions and useful feedback on many parts of this project. I am also grateful to the anony- mous reviewers of my manuscript for their comments and critiques, to Margaret Levi for her suggestions and encouragement, and to Lewis Bateman at Cambridge

xvi Acknowledgments

University Press for his support throughout the publication process. Needless to say, any shortcomings of the book are my own responsibility. The field research for this book could not have been conducted without the help and support of many scholars, colleagues, and friends in Europe. In par- ticular, I would like to thank Bruno Cautres,` Nicole Catala, Gerard´ Grunberg, Pascal Perrineau, and Patrick Weil in France and Virginia Bottomley, David McCrone, Robert McLean, and John Mellon in Great Britain. I am grateful to the librarians and members of research departments in Paris, Fontainebleau, Oxford, and Manchester who helped me navigate party and governmental archives. They include Robert Bird, Fred´ eric´ Cep´ ede,` Jill Davidson, Andrew Flinn, Odile Gaultier-Voiturier, Mireille Jean, Martine Jouneau, Jeremy McIlwaine, James Walsh, and Sheridan Westlake. I am indebted to the CEPIC in Paris and the Politics Department at Birkbeck College in London for providing me with institutional homes and intellectual environments during my field research. And I am grateful to Margaret Paques,ˆ Sabine Weidlich, and Herve´ Demangue in France and Camilla and John Brown, Gil Lea, Andrew Pearson, Tim and June Perfect, Margaret Tabor, and Jane Tinkler in England for their friendship and support. I also would like to thank the countless members – voters and elite – of British and French political parties who generously met with me, answered my questions, and taught me about their organizations. The research and writing of this book were made possible by financial support from many sources. For the funding of my field research, I would like to thank the National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship program and the Krupp Foundation. Grants from the Mellon Foundation, the Program for the Study of Germany and Europe at the Center for European Studies at Harvard University, the Program in Empirical Policy Research at the Wallis Institute, and the Charles E. Lanni Memorial Fund at the University of Rochester provided generous support for writing and additional research. I would like to especially thank Gerald Gamm and the Department of Political Science at the University of Rochester for the leave time and research support needed to complete the research and writing of this book. For assistance with securing access to data sets, I thank Bruno Cautres` and the Banque des Donnees´ Socio-Politiques, Russ Dalton, Gerard´ Grunberg, Murray Goot, Robert Harmel, Sophie Holloway and the Australian Social Science Data Archive, Kenneth Janda, Sol Lebovic and Cassandra Marks of Newspoll, Ann Marshall, Andrea Volkens, and Bernard Wessels. For their help in the final stages of the manuscript preparation, I am thankful for the research assistance of Tanya Bagashka, Jon Sabella, and Susanna Supalla. I am also grateful for the assistance of Peter Dorey, Jane Green, Janet Laible, Fabiana Machado, Susan Scarrow, and Jae-Jae Spoon in gathering party logos for the cover art. I thank Becky Hornyak for her preparation of the index. Material from parts of Chapters 1, 2, and 3 was previously published in “Competition Between Unequals: The Role of Mainstream Party Strategy in Niche Party Success.” American Political Science Review 99:3 (2005): 347–59 and is reprinted here with the permission of Cambridge University Press.

Acknowledgments xvii

Last, but certainly not least, I offer my gratitude to my family. I thank my parents and brother for their support of my academic pursuits. My parents were my first academic role models. They taught me to embrace challenges and to always persevere, for which I am grateful. My grandmothers provided much needed physical and emotional respite during my years of study in the United States and in Europe. They never saw the final product of that work, but they were critical to its achievement. My deepest thanks go to my husband, Michael. He has been a tireless advocate of my work since the very beginning. He has read countless drafts of this book and the papers and dissertation that came before it. My theory and analyses have benefited immensely from the thought-provoking comments and questions that he wrote in the margins of those many drafts. This project and my life would have been much less rich and much more difficult without his intellectual support, love, and general encouragement. I dedicate this book to him and to the memory of my grandmothers.