IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR March 2021

Home , Rishi Sunak

Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention

Conservative 45% Conservative 42%

Labour 38% Labour 39%

Lib Dems 6% Lib Dem 7%

Green 5% Green 8%

Other 6% Other 5%

Conservative lead = +7 Conservative lead = +3

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 754. Margin of error is displayed Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Headline voting intention: Since the 2015 General Election How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60 March 2021 50 45% Conservative 40 38% 30 Labour

Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20

Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21

Mar Mar 21

Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20

Sep15 Nov15 Sep16 Nov16 Sep17 Nov17 Sep18 Nov18 Sep19 Nov19 Sep20 Nov20

May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20 General Election

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – March ‘21 How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Cameron elected Brown as PM Miliband elected Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Dec 05) (June 07) (Sept 10) (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60

March 50 2021 45% Conservative

40 38% Labour

6% Lib Dem 10 5% Green Brexit Party/Reform UK

0 UKIP

Jul04 Jul05 Jul06 Jul07 Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20

Mar 21 Mar

Oct 09 Oct 18 Apr Apr04 Oct 04 Apr05 Oct 05 Apr06 Oct 06 Apr07 Oct 07 Apr08 Oct 08 Apr09 Apr10 Oct 10 Apr11 Oct 11 Apr12 Oct 12 Apr13 Oct 13 Apr14 Oct 14 Apr15 Oct 15 Apr16 Oct 16 Apr17 Oct 17 Oct 18 Apr19 Oct 19 Apr20 Oct 20

Jan 17 Jan Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan Jan 04 Jan General Election

5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied

42% 51% 49%

Don’t know 5% 26% 10%

44% 33% 42%

Satisfied Net= -7% Net= -9 Net= -7 +1% swing -7% swing +1.5% swing from February 2021 from February 2021 from February 2021

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

March 2021 July 2019 – March 2021 100 44% 90 Satisfied 80 70 44% 5% 60 51% Don’t know Dissatisfied 51% 50 40 44% 51% Satisfied Dissatisfied 30 5% 20

Net = -7 10

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Jan-19 Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-19 Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21

Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-19 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

March 2021 July 2019 – March 2021 100

90 13% 83% 83% Satisfied 80 Satisfied 3% 70 3% 60 Don’t know 50 13% 40 83% Dissatisfied 30 20

Net = +70 10 13% Dissatisfied 0

Base: 343 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 5-12 March 2021.

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-21

Mar-20 Mar-21

Feb-20 Feb-21

Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-19 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2021)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?

Johnson

Blair

May

Cameron Net Net satisfaction Major

Brown

Thatcher

Johnson

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2021)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

Johnson’s Gov

Blair’s gov

Cameron’s gov

May’s gov Net satisfaction

Thatcher’s gov

Brown’s gov

Major’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Number of months after assuming government

11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

March 2021 June 2020 – March 2021 100 33% 90 Satisfied 80 33% 70 42% 26% 60 Don’t know 50 42% Dissatisfied 42% 40 Dissatisfied 30 33% 26% 20 Satisfied

Net = -9 10

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer

Starmer Cameron

Corbyn Howard

Miliband Duncan-smith

Blair Hague Net satisfaction Net Smith

Kinnock

Foot

Number of months after becoming opposition leader

13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

March 2021 June 2020 – March 2021 100 52% 90 Satisfied 80 33% 70 16% 60 Don’t know 52% 52% 50 Satisfied 40 33% 33% Dissatisfied 30 16% Dissatisfied 20

Net = +19 10

Base: 342 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 5-12 March 2021

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Keir Starmer: Net satisfaction

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

% Net satisfied 75 66% 65 56% 55 51% 50%

45 31% 33% 35 31% Among 22% 25 19% Labour 16% 15% 15 voters 5% 5% 5 14% Among all 9% -5 -9% -1% Among -5% -15 -6% Conservative -12% -25 -15% voters Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.

15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Ed Davey: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Davey is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

March 2021 September 2020 – March 2021 100 15% 90 15% Satisfied 80 28% 70 57% 60 Don’t know 50 28% 40 Dissatisfied 30 28% Dissatisfied 57% 20 Net = -13 10 15% Satisfied 0

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021

Oct-20

Jan-21

Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Rishi Sunak: Satisfaction

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

March 2021 March 2020 – March 2021 100 59% 90 Satisfied 80 27% 70 59% 14% 60 Satisfied Don’t know 50

59% 40 14% 27% Dissatisfied 30 27% 20 Dissatisfied

Net = +32 10

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021

Jul-20

Apr-20 Oct-20

Jun-20 Jan-21

Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21

Dec-20 Nov-20

Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Rishi Sunak: Net satisfaction

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

% Net satisfied 100 79% 75% 76% 73% Among 75 Conservative 56% voters

50 43% 42% 32% 28% 30% Among all 25 28% 27% Among 0 9% Labour voters 0% -3%

-25 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.

18 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2021

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND JAVID 80 Mar-21 67% 70 64% Rishi 57% 60 52% Sunak 47% 50 44% 59% 39% 39% 37% 38% 40 36% 37%

30 % % SATISFIED 20

Note: Data labels denote each Chancellor’s highest satisfaction score

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

March 2021 January 2007– March 2021 80

41% 70 3% Get worse 60

14% 50 Stay the 43% 41% same 40 Improve 43% 41% 43% 30 Improve Get worse 20 3% 14% 14% Don’t know 10 Stay the same

EOI = +2 21

Jul-07 Jul-17

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-20

Jan-11 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jun-19

Mar

Feb-16 Feb-17

Dec-09 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20

Aug-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Aug-20

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

21 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Economic Optimism Index (1998-2021) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

20 Net optimism 0 +2%

-20

-40

-60

-80

Jul2008 Jul1999 Jul2002 Jul2005 Jul2011 Jul2014 Jul2017 Jul2020

Mar Mar 2021

Apr2009 Oct1998 Apr2000 Oct2001 Apr2003 Oct2004 Apr2006 Oct2007 Oct2010 Apr2012 Oct2013 Apr2015 Oct2016 Apr2018 Oct2019 Apr2021

Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

22 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 LABOUR THE LEADERSHIP CORONAVIRUS CONTEST

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Handling of the Very/fairly well Very/fairly badly Net well Coronavirus Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer outbreak 55% 20% +35 Overall, how well or badly Boris Johnson do you think each of the following have handled 43% 46% -3 the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know The Government who the person is, please 41% 44% say so. -3 Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care 38% 42% -4 Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party 26% 26% 0

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021

24 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak Overall, how well or badly do you think the Government has handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?

March 2020 – March 2021 60% 50% 50% 49% 47% 50% 44% 46% 44% 42% Very/fairly badly 40% Very/fairly well 40% 40% 41% 37% 38% 30% 35% 32% 30% 20%

10%

0% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

25 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak: March 2020 – March 2021

Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. % Net handling the Coronavirus outbreak well

+17 20% +11 March 2021 +9 +8 +10 +3 Keir Starmer 0 +0 0% -3 Boris Johnson -9 -7 -20%

-24

-40% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Do you think the government has done a good job or bad job at ensuring the public are vaccinated as soon as possible? Good job Bad job

Among all Mar-21 88% 7% Feb-21 78% 16% Among Conservative supporters Mar-21 95% 3% Feb-21 92% 6% Among Labour supporters Mar-21 85% 8% Feb-21 65% 24%

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

28 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Prime Minister material? On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister? Net Agree Disagree Agree

Boris Johnson 43% 45% -2

Rishi Sunak 33% 29% +4 Keir Starmer 30% 35% -5

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

29 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Prime Minister material? Among own party supporters On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister? Net Agree Disagree Agree

Boris Johnson 81% 12% +69

Keir Starmer 53% 17% +36

Rishi Sunak 50% 16% +34

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (343), Labour party supporters (342), 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

On balance, do you agree or disagree that … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

70% % Agree 60% Theresa March 2021 May Boris 50% Johnson 43% Boris Johnson 40% Jeremy Corbyn 30% 30% Keir Keir Starmer 20% Starmer

10%

0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

On balance, do you agree or disagree that Boris Johnson has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

80% 2016 Brexit Referendum Became Prime Minister 70% March 2021 60% 45% 50% Disagree 40% 43% 30% Agree 20%

10%

0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

On balance, do you agree or disagree that Keir Starmer has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

80%

70% March 2021 60% Keir 35% 50% Disagree Jeremy Corbyn Starmer 40% 30% 30% Agree 20%

10%

0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Who would make Boris Johnson Keir Starmer the most capable MarchMar-21 2021 47% 37% Prime Minister? June 2020 43% 38% Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn Who do you think would make 11 Dec '19 43% 29% 6 Dec '19 47% 31% the most capable Prime Minister, Nov 2019 49% 30% the Conservative’s Boris Sept 2019 50% 29% Johnson, or Labour’s Keir July 2019 52% 27% Starmer ? June 2019 51% 33% Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Sept 2018 46% 37% July 2017 46% 38% June 2017 47% 36% June 2017 50% 35% May 2017 56% 29% April 2017 61% 23% David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Sept 2015 57% 28%

Base: 1,059 British adults 18+, 5 - 10 June 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister … or … ?

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer

47% 37%

Boris Johnson Rishi Sunak

41% 42%

Rishi Sunak Keir Starmer

39% 37%

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Impact of the budget on you personally: 1976-2021 As you may know, the Government announced its 2021 budget this week/ last week. From what you know or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for you personally?

March 1976 – March 2021

80% Labour Conservative government Labour government Conservative government Govt. 70% March 1977: Denis Healey Dec 1994: Ken Clarke Cut income tax by 2% Backbench rebellion 60%

50% 39%

40% Good thing 30% 26% 20% Bad thing

10%

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

37 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Impact of the budget on the country: 1976-2021 As you may know, the Government announced its 2021 budget this week/ last week. From what you know or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for the country?

March 1976 – March 2021

80% Labour Conservative government Labour government Conservative government Govt. Dec 1994: Ken Clarke March 1977: Denis Healey 70% Backbench rebellion April 2002: Gordon Brown Cut income tax by 2% “NHS Tax” budget 60% 52% 50% Good thing 40% 30% 25% 20% Bad thing

10%

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose each of the following policies? Net Support Oppose Satisfaction

Raising corporation tax on company profits above £250,000 from 19% to 25% in April 2023 69% 15% +54

Increasing the amount raised in income tax by freezing the threshold for paying 40% tax at 53% 23% +30 earnings above £50,270 until April 2026

Increasing the amount raised in income tax by freezing the threshold for paying 20% tax at 47% 33% +14 earnings above £12,750 until April 2026

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Please tell me how strongly you agree or disagree with the following arguments about public services and public spending? Is that strongly or tend to agree/disagree? “There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the very high national debt we now have” June 2009 – March 2021 70%

60% 61%

50% Disagree

40%

30% 26%

20% Agree

10%

0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 5-12 March 2021

Do you think the Government has spent too much money, too little or about the right amount on supporting ordinary people during the pandemic?

Too little About the right amount Too much

Among all 29% 54% 12% Among Conservative supporters 8% 75% 14% Among Labour supporters 46% 41% 8%

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (343), Labour party supporters (342), 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

41 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2021 Government spending after the pandemic And thinking ahead as Britain begins to recover from the pandemic, do you think the Government will spend too much money, too little or about the right amount on supporting ordinary people during the recovery from the pandemic? Too little About the right amount Too much

Among all 45% 40% 7% Among Conservative supporters 20% 66% 9% Among Labour supporters 68% 24% 2%

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (343), Labour party supporters (342), 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

As you may know, the Government has proposed a pay rise of 1% for most NHS staff in England. Do you think this is too much, too little, or about the right amount?

Too little About the right amount Too much

Among all 78% 20% 1% Among Conservative supporters 66% 32% 2% Among Labour supporters 91% 7%1%

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (343), Labour party supporters (342), 5-12 March 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

March 2021 Political Monitor

For more information

Gideon Skinner Cameron Garrett Research Director Senior Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Keiran Pedley Dylan Spielman Research Director Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Glenn Gottfried Research Manager [email protected]