August 2019 //// Westminster Watch Westminster update from the BVCA WESTMINSTER UPDATE FROM THE BVCA This is the thirteenth update shedding light on what catches the eye in and around Westminster and its satellite community of advisers, think tanks and hangers on and will be the first edition to feature the premiership of Boris Johnson, the 77th Prime Minister of the UK. Some of this may have been captured in the headlines and other stuff. Views my own but an acknowledgement Lisa Hayley-Jones that everyone is working hard in a challenging political Director, Political and environment and an extremely bad-tempered world… Business Relations and one last thing, it’s going to be a very, very intense BVCA political summer. Key Political Dates Parliamentary Holidays The House of Commons will return on 3 September. Potential No Confidence Vote As for potential no-confidence vote timing, Graeme Cowie, a House of Commons Library Clerk, calculates that the statutory timetable for an early general election, Thursday 24 October, would require a vote of no confidence to be debated no later than Tuesday 3 September — the first day back from summer recess. More on this later… G7 Summit 24-26 August It will be on the beautiful beaches of the French Basque coast that Boris Johnson faces his first moment of truth on Brexit. The seaside town of Biarritz hosts the G7 summit between 24-26 August, the first major international meeting for the new Prime Minister. The Summit will be attended by President Macron, Chancellor Merkel and Donald Tusk, and will be a key moment if there is to be any Brexit agreement by 31 October. Westminster Watch //// 2 WESTMINSTER UPDATE FROM THE BVCA Trump and Boris 17-30 September Boris and Trump could also meet at the UN general assembly meeting September. The governments of France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada and the United States allow plenty of time for intensive bilateral talks and these will be crucial for Mr Johnson. European governments will watch to gauge his chemistry with President Trump, who has used past G7 meetings to threaten the EU with trade sanctions. Of course there is also that invitation to the White House for the new Prime Minister… EU Summit October Boris Johnson will attend a summit of EU leaders on 17-18 October. New Government Emergency Budget A no-deal emergency budget has been pencilled in for the week of 7 October. September Spending Review The Government will conduct a one-year “fast-tracked” Spending Review. Comprehensive Spending Reviews (CSRs) typically set out Whitehall department expenditure over a two or three year period. Chancellor Sajid Javid has said a shorter spending round would provide “financial certainty” for departments as well as “clear the ground ahead of Brexit.” Latest Westminister Polling Westminster Watch //// 3 WESTMINSTER UPDATE FROM THE BVCA The new Prime Minister Boris Facts • 77th Prime Minister • 14th Prime Minister to serve the Queen • 20th Prime Minister to have attended Oxford University • 20th to have attended Eaton • 2nd to have been born outside the UK • Smallest parliamentary majority in his Uxbridge seat compared to other PM’s • Johnson lost a seat in a by-election (Brecon and Radnorshire) faster than any PM since Herbert Henry Asquith in 1908 Westminster Watch //// 4 WESTMINSTER UPDATE FROM THE BVCA Boris Johnson’s first 100 Days His first 100 days will make or break Boris — which is what makes his premiership unlike any other in recent times. In his favour is his ability to rally support in the country; against him, the realities of a hung parliament. It’s already clear that Boris Johnson intends to be an unconventional Prime Minister. This is going to be the Boris Johnson show. Significantly, his No. 10 will be very different from that of his predecessors: he has filled No. 10 Downing Street with veterans of the Vote Leave campaign and City Hall. There is a strong Vote Leave streak running through his cabinet, too (a full ministerial list of appointments features later on in this edition). Dominic Raab, a stalwart of that campaign, becomes Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State. Priti Patel, who sat around May’s cabinet table to support Leave, is Home Secretary. Michael Gove, who led the campaign with Boris, is now in charge of no-deal planning. The new Chancellor, Sajid Javid, may have backed Remain in 2016 but he is more convinced than the institutional Treasury that the government can do things to offset the effects of no deal. Expect his Budget this autumn to be the most radical for many years. His decision to appoint Dominic Cummings to his Downing Street staff suggests that he has now decided on a course and will stick to it. Cummings’ appointment means Boris plans to get things done, even if that means upsetting the civil service and others in the wider Conservative party. Cummings’ role is to make sure that no deal is a logistically and politically credible option, David Frost, Boris’s EU adviser, is in post to ensure that the deal proposed is one that has a realistic chance of being agreed. The challenge for the new No. 10 team is working within the current system. Without an election – and an election before Britain has legally left the EU would be extremely high risk but there’s no changing the parliamentary arithmetic – the new Prime Minister will have to find ways to get his measures through this hung parliament. As with Theresa May during her tenure at No. 10, Brexit will be the defining issue. Failure to meet this deadline could destroy Boris (and his party). By contrast, if Boris can get a deal with the EU in time and secure parliament’s support for it, then he will be master of all he surveys. The question then will become when, not whether, he will call an early election. Non-Brexit Domestic Agenda Johnson has already unveiled a blitzkrieg of domestic policies to widen his premiership away from just Brexit. They include an immediate insurance plan to tackle the spiralling cost of social care, a major overhaul of school funding, more police, moves to turbo-charge business in the regions and to be the most ‘pro-business PM ever.’ A speech held in Manchester bore all the hallmarks of an election pitch to disillusioned Leavers in Labour areas; he pledged a £3.6 billion fund for deprived towns, a new Manchester-to-Leeds rail line and major investment in buses, and broadband, and to increase the number of regional Mayors and their powers. The new Prime Minister wants to use the ‘One Nation’ domestic blitzkrieg to build support for his new administration from across the bitterly divided Conservative party, as well as draw a sharp contrast with Mrs May’s three years in No. 10, which were characterised by arguments and delays. One Boris confidante said, “Boris wants to establish as soon as possible that he’s about more than Brexit.’’ Westminster Watch //// 5 WESTMINSTER UPDATE FROM THE BVCA No. 10 Team Boris Chief of Staffs: Sir Edward Lister, Dominic Cummings Deputies: Ben Gascoigne, Liam Booth-Smith and James Wild Communications Director: Lee Cain Press Secretary: Rob Oxley Department Press Secretary: Lucia Hodgson No. 10 Policy: Munira Mirza Operations: Shelley Williams-Walker Policy team: James Starkie, Nikki da Costa EU adviser: David Frost New Ministerial Line up Prime Minister, First Lord of the Treasury, Minister for the Civil Service and Minister for the Union Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP HM Treasury Chancellor of the Exchequer: Rt Hon Sajid Javid MP Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Rt Hon Rishi Sunak MP Financial Secretary to the Treasury: Jesse Norman MP Economic Secretary to the Treasury: John Glen MP Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury: Simon Clarke MP Foreign and Commonwealth Office Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, and First Secretary of State: Rt Hon Dominic Raab MP Minister of State for Europe and the Americas: Rt Hon Christopher Pincher MP Minister of State for the Middle East and North Africa: Rt Hon Dr Andrew Murrison MP (jointly with the Department for International Development) Minister of State for Africa: Andrew Stephenson MP (jointly with the Department for International Development) Minister of State for the UN and South Asia at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office: Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Asia and the Pacific: Heather Wheeler MP Home Office Secretary of State for the Home Department: Rt Hon Priti Patel MP Minister of State: Rt Hon Brandon Lewis MP Minister of State: Kit Malthouse MP Minister of State: Baroness Williams of Trafford (jointly with the Department for Work and Pensions (Minister for Equalities) Parliamentary Under Secretary of State: Victoria Atkins MP (jointly with the Department for Work and Pensions (Minister for Women) Parliamentary Under Secretary of State: Seema Kennedy MP Westminster Watch //// 6 WESTMINSTER UPDATE FROM THE BVCA Cabinet Office Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Rt Hon Michael Gove MP Paymaster General, and Minister for the Cabinet Office: Rt Hon Oliver Dowden CBE MP Minister of State: Rt Hon Jake Berry MP (jointly with the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government) Parliamentary Secretary: Chloe Smith MP Parliamentary Secretary: Kevin Foster MP (jointly with the Wales Office; and Assistant Government Whip (paid) Parliamentary Secretary: Simon Hart MP Parliamentary Secretary: Johnny Mercer MP (jointly with the Ministry of Defence) Ministry of Justice Lord Chancellor (paid), and Secretary of State for Justice: Rt Hon Robert Buckland QC MP Minister of State: Lucy Frazer QC MP Parliamentary