POLITICAL MONITOR December 2020

IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR December 2020

Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention

Conservative 41% Conservative 41%

Labour 41% Labour 39%

Lib Dems 6% Lib Dem 6%

Green 5% Green 6%

Other 7% Other 6%

Conservative lead = -0 Conservative lead = +2

Base: 758 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 739. Margin of error is Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Headline voting intention: Since the 2015 General Election How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60 December 2020 50 41% 40 Labour 41% 30 Conservative

Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20

Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20

Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20

Sep 16 Sep Sep15 Nov15 Nov16 Sep17 Nov17 Sep18 Nov18 Sep19 Nov19 Sep20 Nov20

Dec20

May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20 General Election

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – December ‘20 How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Cameron elected Brown as PM Miliband elected Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Dec 05) (June 07) (Sept 10) (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60

50 December 2020 41% Labour 40 41% Conservative

6% Lib Dem 10 5% Green The Brexit Party

0 UKIP

Jul 18 Jul Jul04 Jul05 Jul06 Jul07 Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul19 Jul20

Apr 11 Apr Apr04 Oct 04 Apr05 Oct 05 Apr06 Oct 06 Apr07 Oct 07 Apr08 Oct 08 Apr09 Oct 09 Apr10 Oct 10 Oct 11 Apr12 Oct 12 Apr13 Oct 13 Apr14 Oct 14 Apr15 Oct 15 Apr16 Oct 16 Apr17 Oct 17 Apr18 Oct 18 Apr19 Oct 19 Apr20 Oct 20

Jan 04 Jan 14 Jan Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan Jan 05 Jan General Election

5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied

33% 50% 53%

Don’t know 29% 8% 10%

42% 38% 37%

Satisfied Net= -8% Net= +5 Net= -16 +9% swing -5% swing +7.5% swing from October 2020 from October 2020 from October 2020

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

December 2020 July 2019 –December 2020 100 42% 90 Satisfied 80 70 42% 8% 60 50% Don’t know Dissatisfied 50% 50 50% 40 42% Dissatisfied 30 Satisfied 8% 20

Net = -8 10

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Jan-19 Jun-20

Mar-20 Feb-19

Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-20

Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

December 2020 July 2019 – December 2020 100 78% 90 17% Satisfied 80 78% Satisfied 70 4% 4% 60 Don’t know 50

40 78% 17% Dissatisfied 30 20 17% Net = +61 10 Dissatisfied

Base: 324 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 4-10 December 2020

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Jan-20 Jun-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-20

Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?

Johnson

Blair

May

Cameron Net Net satisfaction Major

Brown

Thatcher

Johnson

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

Johnson’s Gov

Blair’s gov

Cameron’s gov

May’s gov Net satisfaction

Thatcher’s gov

Brown’s gov

Major’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Number of months after assuming government

11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

December 2020 June – December 2020 100 38% 90 Satisfied 80 33% 70 38% 29% 60 Don’t know 50 38% Satisfied 33% 40 Dissatisfied 30 33% 29% 20 Dissatisfied Net = +5 10

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jun-20

Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer

Starmer Cameron

Corbyn Howard

Miliband Duncan-smith

Blair Hague Net satisfaction Net Smith

Kinnock

Foot

Number of months after becoming opposition leader

13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

December 2020 June 2020 – December 2020 100 56% 90 Satisfied 80 25% 70 19% 60 Don’t know 56% 50 Satisfied 56% 40 19% 25% Dissatisfied 30 25% 20 Dissatisfied Net = +31 10

Base: 350 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 4-10 December 2020

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jun-20

Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Keir Starmer: Net satisfaction

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

% Net satisfied 75 66% 65 56% 55 51% 50%

45 Among 31% 31% 35 Labour 22% 25 voters 16% 15% 15 5% Among all 5 14% 9% -5 Among -1% -15 -5% Conservative -12% voters -25 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.

15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Ed Davey: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Davey is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

December 2020 September –December 2020 100 15% 90 15% Satisfied 80 29% 70 57% 60 Don’t know 50 29% 40 29% Dissatisfied 30 Dissatisfied 57% 20 15% Net = -14 10 Satisfied

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020

Oct-20

Nov-20 Dec-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Familiarity with politicians: Sunak v Dodds How much, if anything, do you feel you know about…?

A great deal A fair amount Not very much Heard of but know nothing Never heard of them

Rishi Sunak

11% 35% 27% 13% 12%

Anneliese Dodds

2% 9% 22% 23% 41%

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020

17 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net Rishi Sunak: satisfied Satisfaction Among all Dec '20 61% 19% +42 Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied Sept '20 64% 21% +43 with the way Rishi Sunak is March '20 45% 17% +28 doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Among Conservative party supporters Dec '20 82% 6% +76 Sept '20 83% 8% +75 March '20 63% 7% +56 Among Labour party supporters

Dec '20 55% 28% +27 Sept '20 59% 31% +28 March '20 32% 32% 0

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020, Conservative party supporters (324), Labour party supporters (350) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2020

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND JAVID 80 Dec-20 67% 70 Rishi 57% 60 52% Sunak 47% 50 44% 61% 39% 39% 37% 38% 40 36% 37%

30 % % SATISFIED 20

Note: Data labels denote each Chancellor’s highest satisfaction score

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Most capable Chancellor: 2015-2020 Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservative’s Rishi Sunak, or Labour’s Anneliese Dodds?

Conservative Rishi Sunak Anneliese Dodds lead Dec-2020 48% 17% +31 Sajid Javid John McDonnell Oct-2019 45% 24% +21 Phillip Hammond John McDonnell Nov-2017 41% 32% +9 Nov-2016 46% 28% +18 George Osborne John McDonnell Feb-2016 46% 29% +17 George Osborne Ed Balls Mar-2015 41% 30% +11

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020

20 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Decenber 2020 January 2007– December 2020 80

63% 70 4% Get worse 63% 60 Get worse

7% 50 27% Stay the same 40

27% 30 63% Improve 27% 7% Improve 20 4% Don’t know 10 7% Stay the same 0

EOI = -36

Jul-07 Jul-17

Apr-15 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-20

Jan-12 Jun-19 Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18

Feb-16 Feb-17

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20

Aug-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Aug-20

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

22 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 Economic Optimism Index (1998-2020) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

-20

Net optimism -40 -36%

-60

-80

Jul2017 Jul1999 Jul2002 Jul2005 Jul2008 Jul2011 Jul2014 Jul2020

Dec2020

Oct1998 Apr2000 Oct2001 Apr2003 Oct2004 Apr2006 Oct2007 Apr2009 Oct2010 Apr2012 Oct2013 Apr2015 Oct2016 Apr2018 Oct2019

Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 LABOUR THE LEADERSHIP CORONAVIRUS CONTEST

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Handling of the Very/fairly well Very/fairly badly Net well Coronavirus The Government outbreak Overall, how well or badly 37% 47% -10 do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak Boris Johnson so far? If you do not know who the person is, please 37% 46% say so. -9

Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party

31% 23% +8

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4 – 10 December 2020

25 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak Overall, how well or badly do you think the Government has handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?

March – December 2020 60% 50% 50% 49% 47% 50% 44% 42% Very/fairly badly

40% 40% 40% Very/fairly well 37% 30% 35% 32% 30% 20%

10%

0% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. % Net handling the Coronavirus outbreak well

+17 20% +11 December 2020 +9 +8 +3 Keir Starmer 0 0% Boris Johnson -9 -20%

-24

-40% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Better than expected About the same as expected Worse than you expected Don’t know Among all

15% 48% 34% 3%

2019 Conservative voters

25% 54% 20% 1%

2019 Labour voters

6% 38% 54% 2%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4 – 10 December 2020, 2019 Conservative voters (351), 2019 Labour voters (296)

29 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s performance since re-election Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government has done a good or bad job at…? Good job Bad job

Ensuring the UK has a coronavirus vaccine 80% 13%

Managing the economy 44% 43%

Keeping unemployment down 41% 46%

Handling taxation and expenditure 37% 44%

Maximising Britain’s influence in the world 33% 49%

Handling Britain's exit from the European Union 28% 63%

Developing a test and trace system 24% 70%

Delivering for the north of England 23% 50% Reducing inequalities between different regions, also known as “levelling-up” 21% 58%

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020,

30 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s handling of managing the economy Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government has done a good or bad job at…? Managing the economy April 1998 – December 2020

90% Labour government Conservative government 80% 69% 69% 71% 70% 61% 59% 59% 60% 55% 56% 51% 59% 47% 47% 50% 44% 52% 41% Good job 37% 40% 36% 46% 32% 32% 43% Bad job 29% 28% 42% 40% 30% 24% 37% 30% 20% 24% 10% 16%

2018 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

31 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s handling of taxation and public expenditure Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government has done a good or bad job at…? handling taxation and public expenditure April 1998 – December 2020

90% Labour government Conservative government 80%

70% 59% 60% 60% 56% 54% 52% 47% 50% 43% 44% Bad job 40% 36% 36% 43% 44% Good job 30% 36% 35% 37% 37% 33% 31% 32% 32% 20%

10%

2018 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

32 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s handling of the taxation and public expenditure Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government has done a good or bad job at…? Handling taxation and public expenditure

October 2011 – December 2020

70% 60% 60% 56% 54% 47% 50% 44% Bad job 40% Good job 30% 35% 37% 37% 32% 32% 20%

10%

2017 2017 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

33 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s handling of keeping unemployment down Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government has done a good or bad job at…? Keeping unemployment down April 1998 – December 2020

90% Labour government Conservative government 77% 80%

70% 65% 61% 61% 60% 55% 48% 49% 50% 46% 43% Bad job 40% 36% 44% 43% 41% Good job 30% 24% 21% 30% 20% 23% 10% 15%

2018 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

34 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government has done a good or bad job at…? Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union

November 2016 – December 2020 100%

90% 85% 76% 80%

70% 63% 58% Bad job 60% 53% 52% 54% 50%

40% 48%

30%37%33%36% 38% Good job 31% 20% 28% 10% 18% 0% 9% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

35 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s Good job Bad job handling of “levelling-up” Among all 21% 58%

Since Boris Johnson’s government was re-elected North 16% 59% in December 2019, do you think the government has done a good or bad job Midlands 22% 59% at…? Reducing inequalities between different regions of the South 26% 54% country, also known as “levelling-up” London 22% 49%

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020, those in the North (225), Midlands (331), South (212), London (150)

36 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2020 The Government’s Good job Bad job handling of delivering for the Among all 23% 50% north of England Since Boris Johnson’s North 23% 66% government was re-elected in December 2019, do you think the government has Midlands 26% 44% done a good or bad job at…? Delivering for the north of England South 21% 44%

London 24% 43%

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 4-10 December 2020, those in the North (225), Midlands (331), South (212), London (150)

December 2020 Political Monitor

For more information

Gideon Skinner Cameron Garrett Research Director Senior Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Keiran Pedley Dylan Spielman Research Director Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]