Forecasting Scenarios for Children's Television to 2012
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Independent research report by Attentional: Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 An independent research report by Attentional The future of children’s television programming Research annex Publication date: 6 November 2007 Contents Section Page Foreword 2 Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 3 Methodology 8 1 Independent research report by Attentional: Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 1 Foreword Ofcom initiated the review of children’s television programming in response to a number of consumer and market changes. These include an increase in the range of media available to many children and a growing number of dedicated children’s channels, as well as changes in the way children consume media. As a result, traditional commercial public service broadcasters are facing significant pressures on their ability to fund original programming for children. These changes are occurring in the context of a new framework for the regulation of children’s programming, set out in the Communications Act 2003. Since the Act, ITV1, which had historically played a role in delivering a strong alternative voice to the BBC in terms of children’s programmes, has significantly reduced its commitments to children’s programming. This development, together with the other consumer and market changes outlined above, has led many to ask how public service children’s programming can continue to be delivered in the future. The Communications Act requires Ofcom to report on the fulfilment of the public service broadcasters’ public service remit at least once every five years and to make recommendations with a view to maintaining and strengthening the quality of public service broadcasting in the future. In preparation for Ofcom’s second full public service broadcasting review, Ofcom has concentrated on the children’s programming aspects of public service broadcasting, focusing on the future prospects for delivery of a wide range of high quality and original content for children. Ofcom’s report on the Future of Children’s Television Programming was published on 3 October 2007 and sets out in full the findings from our research. As part of that report, Ofcom commissioned independent research agency, Attentional, to forecast potential viewing levels to children’s television until digital switchover in 2012 and the composition of viewing of children’s channels and slots within this, based on three possible scenarios for changes in the provision of children’s programming. This annex sets out the findings from Attentional’s research. 2 Independent research report by Attentional: Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 Section 1 Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 1.1 Forecasting viewing to children’s television The prevailing trend of the last decade is that children’s consumption of television overall has declined. Within this there has been a shift away from viewing on the PSB main channels (BBC One, BBC Two, ITV1, Channel 4, Five) towards dedicated children’s channels. Ofcom commissioned independent research agency Attentional to forecast potential viewing levels to children’s programming overall until digital switchover in 2012, as well as the composition of viewing of children’s channels and slots within this, based on a number of possible scenarios. In this analysis children’s programming is defined as all programming on the dedicated children’s channels, together with children’s programming (as defined by the BARB children’s genre classification) on BBC One, BBC Two, ITV11, Channel 4 and Five and the children’s slots on non-terrestrial generalist channels. (See Section 2.2.3 for full details.) 1.1.2 Television audiences Attentional’s modelling work is based on three underlying observed trends. Firstly, there is likely to be a continued fall in the size of the child population (based on projections from the Government’s Actuary Department) which will lead to a decrease in the number of potential child viewers. Secondly, there is likely to be a continued fall in the size of average audience to television among children aged 4-15 years (based on the current downward trend observed in BARB viewing figures, which could potentially be due to increased competition from other media). Thirdly, there is likely to be a continued growth in the number of children with access to digital terrestrial television (Freeview) and cable/satellite television and a decline in analogue terrestrial homes. (The modelling does not explicitly take account of other variables such as internet access and usage. It is assumed that these factors will be reflected in the underlying trends outlined above.) Attentional’s work suggests that over the next six years a decline in the number of children aged 4-15, combined with a decline in their average hours of daily viewing, is likely to produce an 11% drop in the average audience for all television (from 814,000 children aged 4-15 in 2006 to 724,000 children in 2012). Within this, the number of viewers of children’s television airtime will fall by only 5% (from 239,500 children in 2006 to 228,200 children in 2012). 1 GMTV is incorporated within ITV1 in this analysis. 3 Independent research report by Attentional: Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 Figure 1: Forecast average audience to total television (000s) 1000 800 Average audience to non- 600 children's airtime 575 551 535 522 512 503 496 400 Thousands Average audience to 200 children’s airtime 240 240 236 234 232 230 228 0 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F Source: Ofcom/Attentional. Note: among children aged 4-15 years. 1.1.2 Television viewing The net impact of these changes is that while children’s average weekly television viewing hours are expected to decline by 8% (from 15.5 hours per week in 2006 to 14.2 hours in 2012), the share of viewing that children’s airtime represents is forecast to increase moderately, from 29.6% to 31.5% of total children’s viewing. This forecast is supported by the trends we are currently observing in changes to television viewing: when children are given more viewing options at the times when most of them are viewing in later afternoon and early evening, as happens in multi-channel households, they tend to increase their viewing of dedicated children’s channels at the expense of viewing in non-children’s airtime. We expect that this trend will continue in homes yet to switch to digital television. Figure 2: Forecast for children’s average weekly hours of viewing Total 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 20 Children's airtime 15 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Non-children's 10 airtime 5 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.7 0 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F Source: Ofcom/Attentional/BARB. Note: this is based on children 4-15 years. In short, a forecast for the children’s television market to 2012 is that dedicated children’s channels will gain a larger share of children’s viewing, in the context of a broader decline in overall children’s television viewing. 1.1.3 Scenarios for changes in viewing To assess the cumulative effect of these potential changes, Attentional modelled the likely impact on viewing share in children’s airtime among children 4-15 years for the following different channel groupings: 4 Independent research report by Attentional: Forecasting scenarios for children’s television to 2012 • BBC One/BBC Two; • CBBC/CBeebies; • Commercial Public Service Broadcasters (ITV1, Channel 4 and Five); • Commercial children’s channels and children’s slots on the non-terrestrial generalist channels, grouped together and referred to in this analysis as ‘commercial non- terrestrial’ children’s airtime. Attentional undertook forecasts for three different possible scenarios which represent hypothetical changes in the provision of children’s programming: • Base-case forecast – projection based on historic trends in performance by channels in 2006 and projected changes in television viewing and television audiences (detailed below); • Scenario 1 – removal of children’s programming (CITV slot) on ITV1; all BBC One’s children's programming transferred to BBC Two; preschool slot Milkshake on Five to continue but removal of Shake as announced by Five in Q2 2007; all other channels as per 2006 base case; • Scenario 2 - as Scenario 1, but with an increase in the volume of UK originated programming on the commercial children’s channels, allocating at least 10% of each schedule to UK programming. 1.1.4 Base-case forecast A base-case forecast has been projected on the basis of the historic trends in performance by channels in 2006 and the projected changes in television viewing and television audiences detailed above. This forecasts the total share for the BBC channels taken as whole to remain stable at around 10%, a slight decline for the commercial PSBs from 1.7% total share in 2006 to 1.4% in 2012 and a slight increase for the commercial children’s channels and slots from 18% in 2006 to 20% in 2012. Figure 3: Base-case forecast for share of viewing in children’s airtime Total 29.6 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.5 % of total viewing of children’s airtime 35 Commercial non- 30 terrestrial 25 CBBC/Cbeebies 19.5 19.7 19.8 20 20 18 19 19.3 15 Commercial PSBs 10 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 BBC One/BBC 5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 Two 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.8 0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F Source: Ofcom/BARB/Attentional.