94/152 ZUZANNA BRUNARSKA Developmental and economic consequences of expected population changes in the Russian Federation February 2017 www.migracje.uw.edu.pl 1 Zuzanna Brunarska, Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw; The Robert B. Zajonc Institute for Social Studies, University of Warsaw,
[email protected] 2 Abstract The paper discusses economic and developmental consequences of future population changes in Russia, taking into account demographic changes both on the country level and broken down by ethnic group. It focuses on their impact on the labour market, pension system and economy, including regional development, also taking into consideration differences between ethnic groups as regards their demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The role of international migration is discussed separately. Key words: Russia, population changes, ethnic groups, migration Abstrakt Artykuł omawia ekonomiczne i rozwojowe skutki przyszłych zmian ludnościowych w Rosji, biorąc pod uwagę zamiany demograficzne zarówno na poziomie kraju, jak i w rozbiciu na grupy etniczne. Skupia się na ich wpływie na rynek pracy, system emerytalny i gospodarkę, w tym rozwój regionalny, uwzględniając różnice między grupami etnicznymi w kwestii ich charakterystyk demograficznych i społeczno-ekonomicznych. Oddzielnie poruszona jest rola migracji międzynarodowych. Słowa kluczowe: Rosja, zmiany ludnościowe, grupy etniczne, migracja 3 Introduction Demographic changes are reflected in a country’s socio-economic development, inter alia, through their direct impact on the demand and supply side of the labour market. Both the population size and its composition play vital roles, age distribution most significantly. Population shrinkage does not have to pose a problem for a country’s economic performance unless it is accompanied by a decline in working age population.