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Marjan Nikolov Phd FINAL for PRINT UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA FACULTY OF ECONOMICS MARJAN NIKOLOV THE MEASUREMENT AND IMPACT OF FISCAL DECENTRALISATION: THE CASE OF MACEDONIA DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Ljubljana, 2013 AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT The undersigned Marjan Nikolov, a student at the University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics (hereafter: FELU), declare that I am the author of the doctoral dissertation entitled The measurement and impact of fiscal decentralisation: The case of Macedonia, written under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Nevenka Hrovatin and co-supervision of Prof. Dr. Maks Tajnikar. In accordance with the Copyright and Related Rights Act (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia, No. 21/1995 with changes and amendments) I allow the text of my doctoral dissertation to be published on the FELU website. I further declare: • the text of my doctoral dissertation to be based on the results of my own research; • the text of my doctoral dissertation to be language-edited and technically in adherence with the FELU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works which means that I o cited and/or quoted works and opinions of other authors in my doctoral dissertation in accordance with the FELU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works; and o obtained (and referred to in my doctoral dissertation) all the necessary permits to use the works of other authors which are entirely (in written or graphical form) used in my text; • to be aware of the fact that plagiarism (in written or graphical form) is a criminal offence and can be prosecuted in accordance with the Criminal Code (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia, No. 55/2008 with changes and amendments); and • to be aware of the consequences a proven plagiarism charge based on the submitted doctoral dissertation could have for my status at the FELU in accordance with the relevant FELU Rules on Doctoral Dissertations. Date of public defence: 22 March 2013 Committee Chair: Prof. Dr. Maks Tajnikar Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Nevenka Hrovatin Co-supervisor: Prof. Dr. Zan Oplotnik Member: Doc. Dr. Jelena Zoric Ljubljana, 22 March 2013 Author’s signature: _______________________ MERJENJE FISKALNE DECENTRALIZACIJE IN NJENEGA VPLIVA NA PRIMERU MAKEDONIJE POVZETEK Makedonija je svojo tranzicijo za čela na zahtevo tržnega gospodarstva po razglasitvi svoje neodvisnosti od nekdanje Jugoslavije leta 1991. Tranzicija je pripeljala do odzivnega u činka s krivuljo v obliki črke U s po časno stopnjo rasti pod potencialom. V času nekdanje Jugoslavije so kolektivizacija kmetij in za četki velikih industrijskih podjetij pritegnili pravoslavne makedonske skupnosti k preseljevanju zaradi dela v teh velikih industrijskih podjetjih v urbanih centrih. Po drugi strani so muslimanske skupnosti ohranile svoje tradicionalne podeželske lokacije in aktivnosti z visoko stopnjo rodnosti in intenzivno emigracijo v zahodno Evropo. Leta 1991 so se Albanci vzdržali glasovanja o prvi makedonski ustavi. Kmalu so se zahteve Albancev v Makedoniji za čele usmerjati na sorazmerno zastopanost v vseh politi čnih institucijah, ve č izobraževanja v albanskem jeziku na univerzitetni stopnji in spremembe ustave, ki bi Makedonijo razglasila za multietni čno državo, katero enakovredno sestavljajo Makedonci in Albanci. Leta 2001, takoj po ratifikaciji obmejnega sporazuma s Srbijo, je prišlo do spopada Albancev z makedonskimi oboroženimi silami. Spopadi so se kon čali s podpisom Ohridskega okvirnega sporazuma (OOS) leta 2001. Težko je zaklju čiti, kje so bili razlogi etni čnega konflikta v Makedoniji. Je bil to razli čen socialno-ekonomski status narodnosti? Je bila to ustava iz leta 1991? Ali le boj za ozemlje? Socio-ekonomske in demografske razlike niso bile rezultat utesnjenosti glede na regije in etni čno pripadnost v Makedoniji. Čeprav Albanci predstavljajo 25 % celotnega prebivalstva, je lahko njihova gospodarska mo č nesorazmerno višja v Makedoniji v primerjavi z etni čnimi Makedonci, tako da je njihova odgovornost kot spoštovanega partnerja zgraditi nacionalno kohezijo z Makedonci pravzaprav še ve čja. Če sprejmemo, da so gospodarske razlike in pomanjkanje etni čnega sožitja pripeljali do etni čnih sporov in preferencialne politike po OOS v Makedoniji, potem moramo danes na žalost podati zaklju ček, da razlike v gospodarstvu, socialni vklju čenosti in demografiji med regijami in v etni čnem spektru v Makedoniji še vedno ostajajo. OOS je prinesel novo makedonsko ustavo s preferencialnimi politikami, povezanimi s procesom decentralizacije, enakovredno zastopanostjo skupnosti, ustanovitvijo Sveta za medetni čne odnose in uporabo jezikov. Decentralizacija je sprejeta kot zaš čitni znak OOS in preferencialna politika kot izbira za ve čjo nacionalno kohezijo, ne pa kot ekonomski instrument. A kontekst decentralizacije in še posebno fiskalne decentralizacije se v tranzicijskih gospodarstvih na žalost zelo razlikuje od konteksta v tržnih gospodarstvih. Ta vprašanja postavljajo probleme, ki so kompleksni za obravnavo in empiri čno testiranje. Od svoje neodvisnosti leta 1991 je Makedonija izkusila tri obdobja procesa decentralizacije. Hitrost decentralizacije se je mo čno pove čala v letu 2005, ko je vlada sprejela podroben na črt prenosa pristojnosti in virov. V povezavi s fiskalno decentralizacijo kljub rasto čemu deležu ob činskih prihodkov v BDP makedonske ob čine še vedno kažejo relativno visoko fiskalno odvisnost od centralne uprave. Ta doktorska disertacija ocenjuje u činkovitost makedonskih ob čin z uporabo metod DEA-VRS in SFA. Domnevamo, da etni čna fragmentiranost vpliva na u činkovitost makedonskih ob čin in zato testiramo naslednje hipoteze: H1. Makedonske ob čine so povpre čno relativno neu činkovite pri zagotavljanju storitev državljanom. H2. Etni čna fragmentiranost prispeva k neu činkovitosti decentraliziranega zagotavljanja storitev v Makedoniji. Naš prispevek k literaturi je, da kolikor nam je znano, prvi č predstavljamo etni čne zna čilnosti ob čin v literaturi o ocenjevanju uspešnosti ob čin z metodami DEA in SFA. Prav tako je to prvi č, da se pri državi kandidatki za vstop v EU ocenjuje splošna občinska u činkovitost z uporabo metod učinkovite meje. Doktorska disertacija prispeva tudi k razpravi o decentralizaciji v Makedoniji in k razpravi o politi čnih problemih, povezanih s socialno-ekonomskim in politi čnim razvojem Makedonije po OOS. Rezultati DEA-VRS potrjujejo našo hipotezo H1 o v povpre čju relativno nizki u činkovitosti makedonskih ob čin. Poleg tega smo pokazali, da makedonske ob čine iz črpavajo rasto če ekonomije obsega s populacijo do 10.000. Druga stopnja Kernelove ocene kaže negativen u činek etni čne fragmentiranosti na to čke u činkovitosti DEA in potrjuje našo hipotezo H2. Vidimo lahko, da višja kot je fragmentiranost (uravnoteženo število etni čnih skupin: Makedonci, Albanci in drugi) v Makedoniji, manj u činkovita bo ob čina. Možna razlaga za negativni trend je lahko, da v primeru obstoja ve četni čnega ravnotežja med etni čnimi skupinami v eni ob čini, politi čna mo č postane bolj uravnotežena, etni čne skupine barantajo za igre z ni čelno vsoto in podaljšujejo proces odlo čanja, ki bi prinesel spremembe v smeri bolj u činkovitega delovanja ob čin. Druge ugotovitve so, da so lastni dohodki na osebo rahlo negativno sorazmerni z to čkami u činkovitosti DEA in ve čje kot je prebivalstvo na km 2 (spremenljivka gostote), ve č izdatkov je potrebnih. To potrjuje dejstvo, da je gostota prebivalstva negativno soodvisna od u činkovitosti, in kaže, da je pomemben del opaženih neu činkovitosti morda posledica strukturnih neu činkovitosti. Povpre čna SFA stroškovna u činkovitost je ocenjena na 57,9 % z metodo SFA, in sicer kot sledi: makedonske občine lahko dosežejo enake izhodne stopnje s povpre čno 40 % (DEA-VRS) do 42 % (SFA) zmanjšanjem trenutnih stroškov. Distribucija to čk je videti koncentrirana okrog sredine pri SFA, saj je mediana to čk relativno blizu to čkovne sredine. Po to čkah DEA-VRS smo namre č ugotovili, da se rasto ča strukturna u činkovitost iz črpa pri razredu števila prebivalstva med 5.000 in 10.000, medtem ko so po SFA rasto ča strukturna u činkovitost iz črpa v razredu števila prebivalstva med 10.000 in 15.000. Zato lahko pri čakujemo, da se strukturna u činkovitost v makedonskih ob činah pojavlja s povpre čnim številom prebivalstva 10.000. Rezultati SFA ocenjevanja Cobb-Douglasove stroškovne funkcije nadalje kažejo, da so etni čna fragmentiranost, lastni dav čni prihodki na osebo in gostota prebivalstva negativno soodvisni od ob činske u činkovitosti. Primerljivost SFA in DEA rezultatov kaže, da so dobljeni rezultati robustni. Naša umetna spremenljivka, ki meri enako pripadnost župana s pripadnostjo koalicije v centralni vladi, kaže pomemben pozitivni vpliv na ob činsko u činkovitost. V Makedoniji je obi čajno, da župani, ki so člani drugih politi čnih strank, kot so tiste v centralni vladi, ustvarjajo zastoje pri projektih v dolo čeni ob čini, in sicer zaradi sovražnega vpliva centralne vlade na lokalne zadeve. Naše ugotovitve potrjujejo, da lahko pride do pozitivnega vpliva na ob činsko u činkovitost enostavno zato, ker župan iste politi čne pripadnosti kot centralna vlada doseže kooperativne rešitve namesto bojev v igrah z ni čelno vsoto. Opazili smo tudi nekaj zanimivih trendov, ko smo merili zadovoljstvo državljanov, tj. izhodne spremenljivke. Nezadovoljstvo z ob činskimi spremembami je na splošno relativno višje, če je ob čina etni čno fragmentirana in ljudje pogosteje poro čajo, da so jim zavrnili storitve zaradi njihove narodnosti. Po drugi strani ni pomembne soodvisnosti med etni čno fragmentacijo in napredovanjem
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