FINANCIAL EXPANSIONS, HEGEMONIC TRANSITIONS AND NATIONALISM: A LONGUE DURÉE ANALYSIS OF STATE-SEEKING NATIONALIST MOVEMENTS by Şahan Savaş KARATAŞLI A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland October, 2013 © 2013 Şahan Savaş Karataşlı All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT This dissertation provides a constructive criticism of theories that predict a decline in state-seeking nationalist movements in the 21st century, including the many theories that claim that the trajectory of nationalist movements is shaped like an inverted U-curve. Through a historical comparative analysis of state-seeking nationalist movements from 1000 AD to 2012, we show that these movements have been characterized by a cyclical pattern in the longue durée. More specifically, the incidence of state-seeking nationalist movements on a world-scale has tended to rise during periods of financial expansion and world-hegemonic crisis and has tended to decline during periods of material expansion and world-hegemonic consolidation. Thus, we expect to see a major resurgence of nationalist movements in the near future, the shape of which is contingent on how the current crisis of US hegemony unfolds. In addition to documenting this cyclical pattern in the prevalence of state-seeking nationalist movements, the study documents the evolution in the forms taken by these movements over time. Class composition and the predominant forms taken by the "nation" have changed from one world hegemony (systemic cycle of accumulation) to the next. The cyclical and evolutionary patterns can in turn be traced to the ways in which state-building strategies fluctuate over time and space between the use of "force" and the use of "consent", on the one hand, and the ways in which state-building strategies themselves have evolved (e.g., from the imposition of religious uniformity to the imposition of linguistic homogenization), on the other hand. ii The world-historical analysis presented in this study helps us to answer a number of unresolved questions and puzzles in the existing literature on nationalism. Our analysis helps resolve the terminological debate and confusion over what is a "nation" and offers a new explanation for the uneven geographical and temporal patterning of "aggressive" versus "tolerant" forms of nationalism. Finally, the study introduces a major new database (constructed by the author) on nationalist movements - the State-Seeking Nationalist Movements Database - which includes articles reporting on state-seeking nationalist activities throughout the world from 1790 to 2012 using The Guardian and other digital newspaper archives. Advisors and Graduate Board Committee Members Primary Advisor: Giovanni Arrighi (1947-2009), Professor, Sociology Department, Johns Hopkins University Primary Advisor: Beverly J. Silver, Professor, Sociology Department, Johns Hopkins University Second Advisor: Joel Andreas, Associate Professor, Sociology Department, Johns Hopkins University Committee Member: Michael Hechter, Professor, School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State University Committee Member: Siba Grovogui, Professor, Political Science Department, Johns Hopkins University Committee Member: Lingxin Hao, Professor, Sociology Department, Johns Hopkins University iii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In 2007, I wrote an outline for my dissertation research proposal and handed it to my dissertation advisors Giovanni Arrighi and Beverly Silver. The working paper, titled "Geometry of Anti-Imperialism", was using the framework of Arrighi's "Geometry of Imperialism" and discussing various forms of anti-imperialist movements that emerged as a reaction to different types of imperialist expansions summarized in the book. Similar to "Geometry of Imperialism" which attempted to dissipate some of the theoretical/terminological confusion created by multiple uses of the term "imperialism", I attempted to discuss the relationship between different and even antagonistic types of "anti-imperialist" movements in history. Although Giovanni Arrighi and Beverly Silver liked the idea, they also thought that "anti-imperialism" was too broad to be handled in a dissertation and they wanted me to focus on a particular type of anti-imperialist movement. Although I decided to focus on anti-imperialist national-liberation movements in 2008, it almost completely changed the direction of my dissertation research. The idea of diverse forms of anti-imperialism gradually disappeared and I found myself studying diverse forms of "nationalism" in world history. When I finalized the proposal in December 2008, it attempted to provide a criticism of the "inverse-U" theses of nationalism. I proposed to examine the historical trajectory of nationalist movements from 1785 to today. Although total number of so- called "nation-states" was increasing in the world, total number of "national problems" was not necessarily decreasing. Hence, the focus of my initial proposal was to provide with a theory and a database on nationalist movements to discuss why nationalist problems were not necessarily "resolved" every time a new state was established and to iv explicate how national problems were turning into "unfinished businesses". Although the notion of hegemonic transitions had been a part of my explanation, I had not yet attempted to take a longer historical perspective on my dissertation or to reconstruct systemic cycles of accumulation for an analysis of nationalist movements until we lost Giovanni in 2009. After his loss, the questions he left for my research provoked me to change the direction of this study once again. Giovanni has always been a major source of inspiration to me and to many of my fellow colleagues at Hopkins. I find myself extremely fortunate to find an opportunity to learn from him as a student, to work with him as an advisee and to know him in person. My unexpected journey from "Geometry of Anti-Imperialism" to the "Long Twentieth Century of Nationalist Movements" may suffice to illustrate the value I find in Giovanni's research and his contributions to studies of historical capitalism. In the formation of this dissertation, however, Giovanni Arrighi played two other roles that I need to acknowledge. Together with Beverly Silver, they turned the Ph.D program at Sociology Department at Hopkins into probably the only place where this dissertation could be written. The Program of Global Social Change and International Development (PGSCID) in particular, and Sociology Department in general, has a distinct selection of faculty and Ph.D students who helped me in many different ways to write, revise and complete this dissertation. In the formation of this collaborative spirit and intellectual environment, I believe, Giovanni Arrighi played a critical role. Furthermore, it was Giovanni's guidance which provided me with the necessary intellectual and moral courage to handle this ambitious project and prevented me from going astray by constantly reminding that I "must not wear my mountain boots while preparing for a tennis match". If I were able to v play this tennis match and/or if I will find the courage to climb steeper mountains one day, this will be thanks to Giovanni Arrighi. Although I will always be indebted to Giovanni Arrighi for his guidance, this must not underestimate the role Beverly Silver played in the course of my intellectual development and in the writing of this dissertation. It was Beverly's encouragement and intellectual support which helped me to bring the dissertation to its existing form. Without her guidance and experience, I could not have handled the complexities of macro-historical comparisons across long centuries, dealt with existing theoretical and historical anomalies, compiled the SSNM database or overcome the difficulties of the data collection procedure, or completed this project in a meaningful way. My research assistantships to Beverly Silver and her lectures helped me to appreciate the complexities of theoretically-substantive empirically-rich macro historical analysis. When I decided that it was necessary to pursue a longer-historical perspective to answer the existing puzzles regarding nationalism, Beverly Silver did not hesitate to support me. I could not have attempted to embed Arrighi's systemic cycles of accumulation and his theory into my explanation properly without her support and guidance. It was Beverly Silver who helped me "walk in Giovanni's shoes" and train me for the "tennis match". This dissertation could not have taken its current shape without her criticisms, suggestions and recommendations. It could not have been finalized without her patience and support. If the theory and historical evidence presented in this dissertation convinces a broader audience, this will be thanks to my second reader and advisor, Joel Andreas. Joel has been among my harshest critics and greatest supporters. Since the beginning of this dissertation project, Joel read every piece I handed to him very carefully, wrote vi extremely detailed comments and provided me with useful feedbacks. He did not hesitate to highlight every point he was skeptical about or disagreed with. Neither did he hesitate to underline every argument that he found "impressive, remarkable and masterful". It was his ongoing suggestions which helped me reshape, reevaluate and restructure my arguments. It was his skepticism and provocation which pushed me to seek further historical evidence or to find new ways