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Volume 16 Number 4

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Volume 16 Number 4 T SPORT tT1 N O t ) 'i THE TRANSPORT ECONOMIST MAGAZINE OF THE TRANSPORT ECONOMISTS GROUP VOLUME 16 NUMBER 4 SUMMER 1989 EDITOR: Stuart Cole, Polytechnic of North London CONTENTS Page RECENT MEETINGS The Central London Rail Study Roland Niblett (London, January 1989) 1 Air Deregulation 14 Tom Bass (London, April 1989) Minibuses 27 Peter White & Roy Turner (London, June 1989) 1 RECENT MEETINGS Page TEG NEWS THE CENTRAL LONDON RAIL STUDY Membership News 40 Roland Niblett, Strategic Planning Manager, Chairman's Report for 1988 42 Network South East (London, January 1989) Report of the Treasurer & Membership Secretary The Central London Rail Study was set up at the for 1988 44 beginning of 1988. It is a joint study between British Rail (Network South East Sector), the Department of Transport and Income and Expenditure Account 1988 45 London Regional Transport. The objectives of the study were to solve the problems of overcrowding on railways in Central Forthcoming Meetings 47 London and to make central London more accessible by rail, especially to areas where railways, at present, do not Committee 47 exist. Copy Dates 49 What is overcrowding? Unfortunately the two railway organisations in London work to two different standards. London Underground Limited work to a planning standard which is the number of passengers in a sequence of trains. This equates roughly to a 200% load factor, on average. But Network South East have a 135% load factor for sl iding door stock and a 110% for "slam" door stock. There is also a general proviso that nobody should need to stand for longer than 20 minutes. On this basis, the following lines do not meet the standard required during the morning peak: 2 3 Charing Cross/Cannon Street to Dartford and Ladywell (NSE) and the higher numbers of employment in the central business Stockwell to Clapham Common (Northern Line) district. Bank to London Bridge (Northern Line) Waterloo to Wimbledon (NSE) If we look at the future employment in central London; St James's Park to Sloane Square (Circle/District Line) in the City 60,000 new jobs will be created in the next five Victoria to Green Park (Victoria Line) years based on the space in the new office blocks that are Knightsbridge to Earls Court (Piccadilly Line) either under construction or where planning permission has Earls Court to Fulham Broadway (District Line) been granted. In the next ten years the number of jobs in Baker Street to Edgware Road (Metropolitan (Hammersmith & the central area will increase by 100,000+ and in Docklands City) and Circle Lines) by 120,000+. Baker Street to Swiss Cottage (Jubilee Line) Finchley Road to Wembley Park (Metropolitan Main Line) The question being asked is will this happen? The Baker Street to Oxford Circus (Bakerloo Line) answer has to be yes because private investors are putting Oxford Circus to Euston (Victoria Line) up billions of pounds in new City office blocks which alone Euston to Camden Town (Northern Line (West End Branch» amount to over half the total forecast increase for central Camden Town to Archway (Norethern Line (High Barnet Branch» London. To solve this present and future overcrowding Holborn to Arsenal (Piccadilly Line) problem the Central London Rail Study started with the base Finsbury Park to Manor House (Piccadilly Line) case. Holborn to Leyton (Central Line) Liverpool Street to Gidea Park/Hackney Downs (NSE) The base case involved the splitting of the Northern Mile End to Bromley-by-Bow (District & Metropolitan Line into two separate lines in order to be able to increase (Hammersmith & City) Line) the service frequency by 25%; to resignal the Bakerloo and Jubilee Lines to be able to increase the service frequency The main problem is that journey to work trips have by 25% and to increase the service frequencies on the increased the most and on LUL since 1983 this has increased Piccadilly, Central and Metropolitan Lines. by 50%. No-one is totally sure of the reasons for this. but the two main possible factors are: Ue introduction of the For Network South East the base case involved buying Travelcard/Capitalcard (since combined into the Travelcard) more rolling stock (with more seats per coach) and longer 4 5 platforms. There is also a need to provide more Chiltern Crossrail links Line trains in order to relieve the Metropolitan Main Line. I.e. lines built for Network South East trains to be able to run through. The total cost of the base case is £1.5 billion. Thameslink Metro However, only about half the overcrowded Lines will come North/South - Euston/Kings Cross to Victoria within the standards and the Liverpool Street, Central and East West - Liverpool Street to Marylebone/Paddington Piccadilly LInes will not be affected or improved. The Base East/South - Liverpool Street to Victoria case solution is concluded by the Central London Rail Study City - GN suburban to London Bridge. to be all that can be achieved without building new lines. Each scheme was put through a traffic forecast model to A long list of new lines and extensions were then predict the new useage patterns and the passenger diversion considered. to other lines, the time savings, congestion savings and any car to rail transfers that would take place. Those schemes New tube lines with the best results are outlined here. Northern Line - southern extension (linked with splitting) Jubilee Line - extension to Stratford, Ilford or London Jubilee Line Bridge The cost of the extension would be £600 million to £700 Victoria Line - overlapping it into two sections million; this high cost is because the geology is not good A Chelsea to Hackney line for tunnelling in East London. This scheme will not relieve Central Line/Bakerloo Line - western package. This involves the Central Line or the Liverpool Street lines, even though providing a Shepherd's Bush to Turnham Green link line it is parallel to them. This is because the connections to enable the Central Line to go to Richmond, so as to at each end of the line will have to be deep down therefore allow more District Line trains to go to Ealing making interchange difficult. Broadway and Wimbledon. Chelsea to Hackney Line A figure of eight line - within the central area with its This line would run from Wimbledon via Fulham, centre at Oxford Circus Victoria, Piccadilly Circus, Kings Cross. Angel, Hackney Waterloo and City - extending to Liverpool Street. Central. Leytonstone to Hainault. The line will be in 6 7 tunnel from Fulham to Leytonstone. The cost will be £1.3 The benefits of the new lines would be: billion. However it will provide a rail service for Chelsea and Hackney. both of which are poorly served at present. Savings in time for existing journey - where if this is Also the line would relieve the Central, Victoria and a direct link a journey is quicker than if the District Lines. passenger has to change trains. The in-vehicle passenger time was valued at £4 per hour. Crossrail lines - North/South & East/West These two lines would relieve nearly all the Reduction in crowding. The study quantified the overcrowding. however the total cost would be £2 billion. benefits that passengers perceived from travelling in relatively uncrowded trains. This was done by Thameslink Metro observing people's behaviour when they have a choice of This involves upgrading the present service and waiting longer for an empty train or catching an extending it to Sutton, West Croydon and Wimbledon to earlier crowded train. Bedford and Enfield Chase. At the moment there are only three trains per hour during the peak period due to a Reduction in road congestion. The time savings to road shortage of rolling stock. The total cost of the upgrading users through less congestion. is only £300 million but this would only relieve the Kings Cross to Moorgate section of the Circle and Metropolitan Additional rail revenue - passengers travelling further (Main and Hammersmith & City) Lines and the southern section and/or more often because of enhanced rail links and of the Northern Line. None of the other schemes manage to therefore paying more in fares. relieve these sections. Assumptions The operating costs of the new lines were also Capital cost discounted at 7% per annum over 60 years (35 considered. The Crossrail and Thameslink Metro schemes years for trains) would be cheaper to operate than the new tube lines because Construction cost spread over 5 year period prior to line the train crews would be in the central area for their opening turnrounds and by adding the centre sections better 2% growth in real value of time productivity could be achieved. 2% growth in Gross Domestic Product 8 9 Peak period to annual X 000 .µ C W ~ The most promising initial packages are:- ~ ~ ~ .~ ru-r-~of.J ctS 1. East/West Crossrafl plus Chelsea to Hackney line g. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .!; g' I-"6 W « u..... ..... N .,... s- C plus Thameslink Metro. Ol .e ~ C 0 .,... ~ 2. East/West Crossrail plus North/South crossrail ~ ~ ~ ~ ::> s- .µ w C w ~ >, plus Thameslink Metro. Co.o 0 U') U') 0 0 0 ~ ~ U') 0 «ou N ...... N............... M'µ ~ .µ s- C ~ 0 (l) , s- or- Each scheme package will cost between £2 billion and £2.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ 5. ~ >"'.µ >, Q) -r- ::l or- ~ " billion. .~ g. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 55 ~ ~ 55 .~ s- w«uu..... .......... s- o. s- w W 0. 00 Ol ~s- 00 C '" Phas i n9 of schemes ~ ;:; jEw ~OVlt 00 oU')U')o oU') ::>>, _ o~o MOO ~~~m ~~ ~ The base case scheme planning has already started but lJ 0:; VI U M M ~ ~ ~ g ~~ these are 1ead times because of the need to obta i n ~ t ~'" .
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