BWCP/1340 to Stansted: Davies Commission submission July 2013 15 July 2013

Take Crossrail to Stansted

SUBMISSION TO THE DAVIES COMMISSION

Brian Waters, BWCP with Bryan Avery, Avery Associates Architects in association with Michael Schabas, First Class Partnerships (FCP) ! Page 1 BWCP/1340 Crossrail to Stansted: Davies Commission submission July 2013 15 July 2013

1.0 The authors This submission is proffered by BWCP with Avery Associates Architects and is in support and coordination with a separate submission by Michael Schabas and FCP. Between us we are town planners, architects, railway experts and thinkers.

Brian Waters is principal of BWCP, an architect and town planner. He was a member of Conservative Transport Policy Group with Michael Heseltine and Peter Walker and Regional Policy Group under John Boyd-Carpenter. He has chaired the London Planning & Development Forum since 1990 and is current chairman of the National Planning Forum.

Bryan Avery is author of the AJ Metric Handbook terminal design guide. He designed the masterplan for Dubai airport and was architect for the BFI London IMAX Waterloo, Covent Garden, and the Royal Academy of Dramatic Art amongst many others.

Michael Schabas was vice president transportation for Canary Wharf Ltd and led negotiations for delivery of the Jubilee Line extension. He also consulted on and gave evidence on the evolving scheme for Crossrail which included the option of an extension to Stansted. The feasibility and costings indicated by Michael Schabas and FCP are realistic. Please refer to their submission for more than is contained in our references and summaries.

We have no interests to declare and do not represent any landowners or other commercial parties who may have an interest though we have met major landowners implicated in this proposal and have discussed it with them.

CVs are included in Appendix A.

2.0 Background Under Sir Leslie Martin at the Cambridge school of architecture a post graduate project by Max Boisot and Brian Waters (founder partners of BWCP) proposed the ‘London Airport System’. It was published in Official Architecture and Planning and later in a pamphlet by the Conservative Political Centre titled London’s Flight East [see Appendix B]. The London Airport System was conceived around the time of the Roskill Commission which led to the Maplin Sands decision. It proposes a fast rail dedicated to air passengers running across London to link Heathrow to a new hub airport in the East – in that case in the estuary.

Since 2009 Michael Schabas and Brian Waters have been discussing with potential investors and interested parties the idea of running an airport service to Stansted using spare capacity in the Crossrail tunnel. This would run non-stop to Heathrow

! Page 2 BWCP/1340 Crossrail to Stansted: Davies Commission submission July 2013 15 July 2013 west from Paddington and similarly NE from Canary Wharf or Stratford to Stansted. We anticipate four trains each way per hour and premium ticket pricing for the airport extension legs. Journey times from Bond Street to Heathrow and Stansted will be similar, Stansted being closer to Canary Wharf than Heathrow. This is the basis of this submission.

Once the Commission was announced Brian Waters invited Bryan Avery to help develop the thinking in relation to the potential development of the Stansted terminals and in the wider context of a supporting new town. This brings together Brian’s knowledge as team leader for the Hampstead Garden Suburb conservation plan at Shankland/Cox and Bryan’s concept for ‘Wilderness City’ which is a modern interpretation of Ebenezer Howard and the Garden City movement.

3.0 The proposal

3.1 Appendix C (also at http://alturl.com/dbdcy) reproduces the article and cover story from the October 2012 issue of Planning in London which neatly summarises the proposition and the arguments. I will not repeat them here but refer you to the arguments spelled out for the need for hub and the case for and precedents of major cities (New York and Moscow, amongst others) which have more than one.

3.2 To compete and provide an efficient facility to serve the UK and the South East it is essential that Stansted has a dedicated and efficient rail connection to London as well as good access from the East Midlands. Using the spare capacity of Crossrail can provide this in a way that the overloaded commuter lines presently trying to serve the airport never can. A big advantage of removing the present service will be to release commuter capacity on those tracks.

3.3 Stansted has the advantage of not overlapping with the flight paths of Heathrow and Gatwick. It also meets the London Mayor’s demand for expansion of the city and its infrastructure to the East. The development and economic potential of the ‘London-Cambridge Corridor’ has recently been formally recognised and Stansted will be a key element in the strategic thinking which this implies.

3.4 We envisage Crossrail running fast, probably non-stop, from Canary Wharf or Stratford into the existing station under the airport. The present terminal will be upgraded and expanded to meet the needs of long-haul international passengers and their airlines while new simple terminal pavilions will be built for the low-cost airlines, dedicated to the larger of these. Their point-to-point passengers will be able to feed the other carriers, though this is not seen as a primary objective.

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The expanded terminal layout

3.5 An enlarged car park and bus station will be served by a monorail loop.

3.6 The refreshment and expansion of the airport provides an opportunity to provide a more ‘green’ and pleasant passenger experience as suggested by our illustrations.

3.7 Strategic land holdings, especially to the east of the airport (for example Land Securities and Countryside Properties, see Appendix D) demonstrate the potential for substantial housing development which will be supported by airport employment. Well planned this could be conceived as a new ‘garden city’ along the lines of our published thinking (see Appendix E). An aerotropolis concept sharing employment, car park and local transport, even some hotel, catering, retailing and entertainment between the airport and the new town could be an especially attractive and sustainable form of development.

3.8 There would be the need for an approved masterplan and private long-term (patient) investment as considered by members of the Eco-towns Delivery Consortium brought together by Brian Waters in response to the last government’s Ecotowns Prospectus (see Appendix F).

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4.0 Delivery and cost 4.1 Informal conversations with Crossrail confirm that if decided speedily and given that the legislation is in place to extend Crossrail, the Stansted service could be running when Crossrail is fully complete in 2019. The cost with Crossrail in tunnel to Fairlop Waters then surface rail, much alongside the M11, is put at £3bn (see Appendix G)

4.2 In the same time frame the second runway could be permitted and, if demand justifies, also built. Otherwise this can follow as with further runways as the airport traffic grows.

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4.3 As shown in the Michael Schabas submission, the value of the airport itself is doubled as a result of the Crossrail connection, so underwriting the investment very profitably.

4.4 Its value is presently held down by regulation but with new ownership and competition between London’s airports this will be hard to justify in future. Expansion depends on the willingness of airlines to pay higher charges. The sale price of City Airport suggests that a capital value of £300 per annual passenger is possible, implying that with 50mppa Stansted could support a £15bn valuation. The enhanced land value for the airport city adds to the value released.

4.5 Phasing: a major advantage of this proposal is the flexibility in its phasing. As Stansted expands it can relieve Heathrow of its present overload. It can accommodate expanding demand from non-alliance airlines (Gulf and Chinese for example) and can meet the requirements of airlines or alliances wishing to develop a European hub here. This all depends on regulation, competition and demand so the timing will not be certain and a plan which does not rely on uncertain assumptions has an advantage. At the extreme, a policy requiring the run-down of Heathrow in favour of a major 4-runway replacement at Stansted could also be achieved.

Greening the terminal ! Page 6 BWCP/1340 Crossrail to Stansted: Davies Commission submission July 2013 15 July 2013

CONCLUSION The advantages of taking Crossrail to Stansted

We support the case for the UK needing substantial additional capacity and a hub airport (or two) in the South East of England. We leave others to make the argument for this. ! Page 7 BWCP/1340 Crossrail to Stansted: Davies Commission submission July 2013 15 July 2013

We think the time has passed for the ‘grande project’ of the estuary airport hub. Maplin would have started operations in the early 1990‘s as Sir Peter Walker pointed out in Parliament at the time. The need for the coherent expansion of airport capacity in the the South East is in any case too urgent.

We agree with the Mayor’s thinking that new capacity should be to the East of the metropolis and that it should have the capacity and potential for airline hub operations. Heathrow is now building a second hub at Heathrow for Star Alliance and major world cities (New York, Moscow) have more than one hub airport. Linking Heathrow effectively with Stansted through central London will allow a speedy balancing of loads in non-conflicting airspace, once airlines see it working. We don’t anticipate significant interlining between the airports. The railway should be useful for staff interlinking. The equal accessibility will also reduce resistance of passengers to using the newly enlarged Stansted.

Daniel Moylan, to whom we presented this proposition as chairman of TfL, has recently gone on the record as saying that an expansion of Stansted gives the Mayor 95 per cent of what London needs.

Extending Crossrail and Stansted itself both have the great advantages of building upon existing assets. If the USA had not donated us a long runway at Stansted then it is not likely to ever have become a significant location but with a credible means of access it can become a viable hub airport.

It is not only an almost obviously easy option but has the added advantage of finding itself on the London to Cambridge corridor (itself the subject of a relevant new study); it has relatively unconstrained airspace (when compared to LGW for example); it can embrace the Midlands in its catchment and, importantly, can stimulate and underwrite the economies of one or more new towns in its vicinity.

We trust that this submission makes a constructive and helpful contribution to the work of the Commission.

Yours faithfully,

Brian Waters, BWCP with Bryan Avery, Avery Associates Architects in association with Michael Schabas, First Class Partnerships

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Appendix A: CVs of authors

BRIAN WATERS MA DipArch(Cantab) DipTP RIBA MRTPI PPACA FRSA BRIAN is principal of architects and planning consultants The Boisot Waters Cohen Partnership, founded in 1972. See bwcp.co.uk. A chartered architect, he studied at Cambridge University; a chartered town planner, he studied at the Polytechnic of Central London. He went to the City of London School, is a Freeman of the City of London and a founder member of the Worshipful Company of Chartered Architects, where he was elected Master in 2002. As a graduate he worked for the City of London Corporation, as a housing architect at the GLC and with Shankland/Cox where he was team leader for the Hampstead Garden Suburb Conservation Plan. He served on policy groups on transport and London regional policy under Peter Walker and John Boyd-Carpenter. He is chairman of the National Planning Forum and of London Planning & Development Forum and joint publishing editor of Planning in London, its journal, a director of Land Research Unit Ltd which publishes the journal. Planning in London won Magazine of the Year (non weekly) 2007 at the International Building Press Awards and has been a finalist every year since 2006. He has written for most of the professional journals and has received four commendations as Architectural Journalist of the Year for his articles in Building, AJ and RIBAJ. He contributed a chapter in the book on Lord Foster's Tokyo Tower and is planning correspondent for the Architects Journal. He has tutored at PCL and Cambridge and lectured at the AA, PNL and Welsh Schools of Architecture, presented a paper to the 1997 ACA annual conference and has contributed to the 1998 and 2000 induction courses for civil servants on planning at the DETR/ODPM. He is a past president of the Cities of London & Westminster Society of Architects and was elected to the RIBA Council in 1987. He was elected RIBA Vice-President, Marketing and chairman of the Marketing Committee 1988-90 and again for 1991-2. He chaired the National Architecture Conference held in London in 1991. He was appointed chairman of the London Planning & Development Forum in July 1990; the Forum includes representatives of central and local Government and the private sector including DCLG, English Heritage, GLA, BPF, RIBA, RICS, RTPI, London borough chief planning officers, the CBI, UCL and the TCPA. He was the only private sector member of the CLG steering group contributing to the Killian-Pretty review of planning in 2009. He was appointed vice-chairman (professions) of the National Planning Forum effective 1st January 2010 and chairman from September 2011 and from September 2012. He is immediate past President of the Association of Consultant Architects. He was elected a member of the council in 1997. He is a Past-Master of the Worshipful Company of Chartered Architects. He is a member of the RAC and Hurlingham Clubs. He was elected president of the Old Citizens' Association, alumni of the City of London School for 2005-06. His recreations include dressage, tennis, Siberian huskies, painting, throwing (pots) and growing fruit, lavender and vines in Catalunya. In 1997 he was elected a member of the Society of Architect Artists and exhibited with them in December 1997 and in March 1998 at the RIBA. His first solo exhibition NFS* took place at Leighton House, Kensington in December 2002 (*NotForSale ). Brian was highly commended in the 2007 London Planning Awards for 'best personal contribution'; these awards are made by the Mayor, London First and the RTPI. The University of Westminster conferred an honorary Fellowship in November 2012.

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BRYAN AVERY See http://www.avery-architects.co.uk/foreword.html

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------MICHAEL SCHABAS

MICHAEL SCHABAS has over 30 years experience in development, finance and management of rail passenger, freight and urban transport systems. He played leading roles in shaping Vancouver Skytrain, London (DLR) and Jubilee Line Extension, West Coast Main Line modernisation and on Britainʼs first High Speed Railway (the Channel Tunnel Rail Link). During privatisation of , Michael founded GB Railways plc which operated Anglia Railways, launched GB Railfreight and backed the formation of , Britainʼs first “open access” train company. GB Railways won numerous awards for passenger service excellence and innovation. He has also led Great Southern Railwaysʼ acquisition of Australiaʼs trans-continental passenger train services and created the business plan which brought it to profitability. Michael has particular expertise in multi-disciplinary business strategy, preparing and reviewing traffic forecasts, business plans and feasibility studies as well as building core teams for complex projects. He brings a detailed understanding of project finance structure for Private-Public-Partnerships (PPP), concessions and franchises which must operate within technical, economic and political opportunities and constraints. He has been actively involved on international transport projects for public and private sector clients including the UK Department of Transport, Transport , City & County of Honolulu, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, European Development Bank, British Telecom, Transport Innovations Edinburgh, Queensland Rail, Railtrack, East London Line Group, Halliburton, Angel Trains and Amec plc. He is founder investor of Hamburg Köln Express, a new passenger train company in Germany, which launched in Spring 2012. Michael is leading the technical and commercial team advising Eko Rail on new metro line development in Lagos, Nigeria under a 25 year PPP concession. He has published extensively on modern transit modes and project planning. For publication links: www.schabas.net.

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Appendix B: London’s Flight East published Conservative Political Centre 1974 & The London Airport System published Official Architecture and Planning December 1969

! Page 11 Appendix C: A NEW HUB AIRPORT FOR LONDON | MICHAEL SCHABAS & BRIAN WATERS ‘Take Crossrail to Stansted’ – published Planning in London issue 83 October 2012

PLANNING REFORM IS NEEDED Shaun Andrews – Keynote page 7 Take Crossrail to Stansted MORE HOMES FOR RENT Sir Steve Bullock – Briefing page 10 NEW GROWTH OUTSIDE LONDON Drummond Robson reports the London Planning & Development Forum page 20 GREENING LONDON Victoria Thornton page 28 Under pressure, The debate about whether, if, how or where London is to have has not presented even a conceptual business case for the additional airport capacity has filled the news through the massive investment. Even with a fast rail link to St Pancras, Issue 83 October-December 2012 www.planninginlondon.com the Government summer. most passengers would prefer Heathrow, or even connecting has backtracked The question for London is whether to continue expanding through Schiphol or Frankfurt. It would be a £40 billion black Heathrow, or support the creation of a second hub. It’s analo- hole for taxpayer’s money. on its manifesto gous with the situation in 1988, when Big Bang (financial Even flakier proposals have been made, to develop “split commitment to deregulation) increased demand for office space. The City was hubs”, with short haul flights switched to Northolt or Gatwick, block new unwilling to allow a lot of new development, although some linked to Heathrow by a fast, airside train. Any passenger flying was built (Broadgate for example). So a new financial district from say to Dar es Salaam who found themselves runways in the was developed at Canary Wharf. That was not good news for routed this way would be in the market for a better travel South East. landowners in the city, including the Corporation of London. agent for their next trip! But it survived, and finally raised its game. Meanwhile, Canary Heathrow is the world’s most popular international air hub, Michael Schabas Wharf has transformed east London, creating perhaps half a and the most profitable for the airlines, because it is at the and Brian Waters million jobs in the area and stimulation billions in new invest- heart of southern England, at the hub of the motorway net- believe that an ment. work, yet also a short ride to central London. It’s about as close BAA, the owner of Heathrow, insists that a third runway is to Harrods as you can land a 747. extension of the only realistic way to add capacity and maintain London’s There is as much noise as light in this debate. Everyone flies Crossrail to position as a global transport hub. Of course they would say on planes, so everyone thinks they understand the industry. that. But few understand the regulation or economics of air travel, Stansted is the Business groups seem to agree. But few politicians want to which are not always transparent. And groups like BAA, BA, best answer. come out in favour of a scheme that would increase air traffic Ryanair, and even Norman Foster have particular interests or noise affecting west London, where there are several marginal “axes to grind”. Michael outlines seats. If a second hub is to be created, where should it be? It needs to the reasoning. Since he was first elected, Mayor has been have a fast rail link to London, but also good road and rail con- The proposal is enamoured with building a large, four-runway airport on an nections to a much wider catchment area, ideally with direct island in the Thames Estuary. This would take the noise prob- trains or only one change. outlined on the lem away. But while BAA can finance a third runway with ease Gatwick is isolated on the south side of London – anyone following pages from landing charges, there seems no way a new estuary air- going there needs to cross London, or go around it, driving past port could make any commercial sense. Airlines want to land Heathrow on the way. Stansted is convenient to East London their planes close to their passengers. and Essex, and within range of the Midlands. Its catchment Norman Foster and Halcrow have suggested a slightly dif- area overlaps with Heathrow but for large parts of Britain it ferent scheme, combined with ambitious new passenger and would be very competitive. freight rail lines, together with closure of Heathrow. This might OVERPAGE: The proposal followed by The facts, How hub air- Michael Schabas was Vice be good business for consultants but seems unlikely to be ports happen and What they say about the Government’s President Transport for good for London. It is easy to draw lines on maps, but Halcrow Capacity Review. >>> Canary Wharf Developments. He was a founder and director of GB Coalition sets up airports capacity review Railways which operated The Government has asked Sir Howard Davies to chair an independent diate actions to improve the use of existing runway capacity in the next train services from East commission which will identify and recommend options for maintain- five years – consistent with credible long-term options. Anglia into Liverpool ing the UK’s status as an international hub for aviation. The Commission will then publish by the summer of 2015 a final Street.. He consults on The Commission will: report, for consideration by both the Government and the Opposition. • examine the scale and timing of any requirement for additional This will provide an assessment of the options for meeting the UK’s railways with First Class capacity to maintain the UK’s position as Europe’s most important avi- international connectivity needs, including their economic, social and Partnerships ation hub environmental impact as well as its recommendation(s) for the opti- • identify and evaluate how any need for additional capacity should be mum approach to meeting any need. The final report will also provide TAKE CROSSRAIL TO STANSTED Brian Waters is an architect met in the short-, medium- and long-term the context and material to help the Government prepare a National Michael Schabas and Brian Waters propose an immediate solution page 33; A date and planner. He chairs the The Commission will compile an interim report for ministers no Policy Statement on aviation for planning purposes. The government National and London later than the end of 2013 setting out its assessment of the evidence has stressed that any decision on new capacity at any existing airport with density, Lee Mallett interviews Philip Turner page 44; New Towns: everything to Planning Forums and edits on the nature, scale and timing of the steps needed to maintain the or the development of new facilities will be taken by the next adminis- be gained! Patrick Clarke and Katy Lock page 54; Sir Terry Farrell page 66 Planning in London. UK’s global hub status. This preliminary report will recommend imme- tration after 2015.

THE ESSENTIAL GUIDE TO DEVELOPMENT IN THE CAPITAL Please subscribe: page 65 Issue 83 October-December 2012 43 page 12 A NEW HUB AIRPORT FOR LONDON | MICHAEL SCHABAS & BRIAN WATERS

Crossrail to Stansted: how it works Michael Schabas and Brian Waters have worked up a proposal which can be achieved in the near-term and which makes good use of existing infrastructure investment to bring a second hub to the east side of London. They are in discussion with landowners and potential investors.

Why extend Crossrail To Stansted? But access is a problem

Other options 1: floating runways in the estuary Stansted has space for four runways Would the airlines be attracted to Stansted?

ABOVE: The London Airport System envisaged a dedicated railway through Crossrail extension to Stansted How difficult will it be to get environmental approval? London linking Heathrow with an airport with floating runways off Warden will cost about £3 billion Point, Sheppey. A graduate project at Cambridge by Max Boisot and Brian Waters at the time when Maplin was emerging as government policy, it was published in Official Architecture & Planning in1969 and by the Conservative Political Centre as London’s Flight East in 1974. RIGHT: Gensler last month published another floating runway proposal dubbed London Britannia Airport. LBA “would position the capital as the global gateway for Europe in what would be the world’s most innovative infrastructure develop- ment this century – whilst reducing environmental impact, cost and disruption to London. Providing a further endorsement to the Thames Estuary as the pre- ferred location for London’s new airport, Gensler have designed a unique solu- tion creating an entirely new approach to modern airport design and construc- tion with a clear focus on convenience and accessibility”, they claim. The proposals also envisage a new future for Heathrow as the largest urban expansion project in Europe with the development of an eco city

44 Planning in London Issue 83 October-December 2012 45 page 13 A NEW HUB AIRPORT FOR LONDON | MICHAEL SCHABAS & BRIAN WATERS

Lets get some facts straight indirectly employing over 100,000 persons. The airport has Hub airports don’t just “happen”. transport to all parts of the airport? This could be a true eco-town, because been there for 60 years, and in the last 30 it has actually been most residents would not need a car to commuter - indeed they would not There is plenty of spare runway capacity in the southeast. getting quieter. People live there because of the airport, and in The airport operator needs to do many things to make an airport suitable for want one. In effect, they would already live in the staff car park. Of course, Heathrow’s two runways are full, but Stansted, Gatwick, and spite of the noise. House prices in Hounslow and Chiswick hub operations, and to attract the airlines that will use it. Obviously there people would not want to live in a “company town”, but places like Crawley Birmingham operate only at 60 per cent or so of capacity. So would probably go down if Heathrow were to close. needs to be enough runway capacity to serve the mix of long and short haul (for Gatwick) and Staines and Southall (for Heathrow) are already dominated nobody will be stuck on the ground because of capacity. There is a lot of money to be made from international air flights, at the times that work for passengers and for airline operators. It’s hard by airport workers. A “Stansted New Town” would have fast rail links into cen- London is the best-connected city on the planet. Heathrow travel through a “hub airport”. Heathrow slot pairs are worth to make a hub work with only one runway, even if it is not busy at all times tral London, so it could also attract city workers, who also would not need to has the most international passengers, and is served by virtual- £10 to £20 million, because the combination of local markets through the day. Successful hub airports fill big planes to fly around the world. own a car. Of course, the town would need to be built in land that is currently ly all the big airlines with direct flights to all major centres. And and feeder traffic means you can fill both the front and back of At Heathrow, airlines can fill 747s or the even larger A380, mostly with Greenbelt. It could be authorised on the basis that there would be NO resi- when you add in flights from London’s five other airports, there the plan at significantly higher fares than in Amsterdam, passengers who arrive by car or public transport. But even Virgin and BA need dent car parking. There would need to be access for service vehicles, and there are more flights, to more places, than from anywhere else. Yes, Frankfurt, or Paris. Airlines can charge, on average, about £20 feeder flights. This is why Virgin is now operating 3 flights a day from could be car-sharing so residents could take the kids to visit grandparents, etc. Frankfurt has direct flights to more cities in Asia, Madrid has more per passenger on flights from Heathrow, than from Manchester to Heathrow. In the past, they could partner with BMI, but now more to Latin America. But that is because they are closer. The Gatwick or Schiphol. This is because it is smack in the middle of this has been bought by BA. You can’t rely on your competitor to give you To have a viable, profitable hub airport, you need one daily flight to Europe from the Chinese city you have never southern England, with good transport connections, as well as good prices on seats on feeder places. • at least two runways and 30 million passengers per year, with a mix of local heard of lands in Frankfurt (or perhaps Munich or Vienna) having a great network of feeder flights. At Frankfurt and Schiphol, often more than half the passengers on a long and long haul flights. Gatwick’s new owners are trying, but with only one run- because half the passengers will not want to go as far as A third runway at Heathrow would release another 300 ‘slot haul flight have a connection on a feeder flight. KLM actually set up its own way, it is difficult to match feeder and long haul flight times. Budget airlines London. pairs’, potentially worth £5 billion. This is enough to pay for the subsidiary, KLM Cityhopper, to feed long haul flights with passengers from like Easyjet and Ryanair, which dominate Gatwick and Stansted, arguably And as there is only one flight, they don’t need to pay for an entire project, and make all the displaced residents into mil- across northern Europe (including Britain). maker it harder to create a hub because they occupy so many slots already, expensive slot at Heathrow to fill the plane. There are 25 flights lionaires. It would maintain London’s position as the premier The dominance of Ryanair at Stansted actually makes it hard for a hub to and will cannibalise any feeder traffic. each day from Heathrow to New York; if global connectivity transport hub, and create thousands more jobs operating the develop, because competition from Ryanair would make it harder for a long • excellent transport links to business and leisure destinations (“Harrods”, ide- was really a problem, some of these slots would be used for planes. Some of this traffic would otherwise go to continental haul airline to sustain a feeder network. ally) for the inbound traveller, and from the Home Counties for the outbound flight to places like Valparaiso and Chengdu. rivals, so there would be a benefit to “UK PLC” as well as to The airport also needs to be a nice place, especially if you might need to traveller. Even with excellent rail links, about half of passengers are likely to Air traffic is growing and will continue to grow, despite BAA and airlines like BA. spend three or four hours waiting for a connection. When United moved from arrive at the airport by road. higher aviation taxes and carbon taxes. Air travel is just too You can have more than one hub – see PiL 82, July 2012 JFK to Newark to create its new hub, it completely rebuilt terminal C. Besides • a large pool of workers nearby, to do all the support jobs. For Heathrow, this convenient, and international travel too valuable. Yes, there are where I make the case. You can have a second in the same met- a large business class lounge with an open bar, there’s an upmarket is Slough and Southall; for Gatwick, it is Crawley. groups that fly to Bratislava for a stag party, but most people ropolitan area, provided the market is large enough. New York’s Steakhouse and an Oyster Bar. These restaurants may not be profitable on • excellent terminal facilities. going through Stansted security at 5.30am are going to work, main airport, JFK, is to the east, on Long Island. But United, the their own, or able to pay the same rents as shops selling perfume, DVDs or BAA had little incentive to develop Gatwick and Stansted as rival hubs. And to visit family, or to study. Air travel is good for international world’s largest single airline, has moved all its flights to jewellery. But a hub airport operator manages the mix because this is essential it was easy for them to make sure it didn’t happen, just by not trying very understanding; it’s one reason we haven’t had world war three. Newark, on the other side of the city, where it operate what it to attract the best mix of airlines. hard. Now that the Competition Commission has forced their sale this may Modern aircraft are not very noisy. If west London really calls its “global gateway”. Washington, Tokyo and Moscow also Airports employ thousands of passengers, as a general rule about 1,000 for change. Landing charges at London’s main airports have been regulated by the was blighted by aircraft noise, homes in Putney and have two hub airports. In the same way, most cities can only every million annual passengers (so one for every three daily passengers). This CAA to provide a reasonable rate of return but not creating any real incentive Hammersmith would not be so expensive. Aircraft noise can be sustain one Central Business District, but London seems now to means that there are often more daily ground trips to to an airport by workers to develop facilities. annoying but the airport is a massive economic powerhouse, have three. – MS than by passengers. Because they often start very early or finish very late, few Local economies benefit from having a hub airport nearby. The Thames staff use public transport, most driving to long-stay staff carparks, then taking Valley is home to many global high tech companies. Few will locate in or a shuttle bus into the terminal. Worker commuting is a major generator of air Essex, because they are remote from a hub airport. Will more flights to What they say about the Commission pollution and traffic congestion. Heathrow help the Thames Valley, or does it already have all the air access it If Stansted is expanded into a global hub, it will need another 50,000 work- needs? Would Eastern England benefit if a second hub was created at Heathrow expansion won't happen but we cannot afford further delays on such a growth-critical ers. Why not build a new town, next to the airport, with good 24 hour public Stansted? – MS I Vince Cable says there is "formidable" cross-party opposition issue.” to a third runway. An expansion of is "not going to happen". Peter Eversden, London Forum of Amenity Societies says: Other options 2: integrated estuarial airports Foster & Partners with Halcrow (LEFT) have given a high profile (See Fosters’ His comments came after the government launched a “The consultation on the Government's Draft Aviation Policy Huw Thomas article in Planning in London 79) to a variation on the ‘Boris commission on how to increase the UK's aviation capacity, Framework was published on 12th July. This first consultation Island’ idea which, in turn, is based on the Bluebase project by Mark amid fears business is losing out. deals with noise, night flights, carbon emissions, air quality and Willingdale and published in PiL 60 (January 2007) and the AJ in 2003 Mr Cable told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show the value of regional airports, as well as "how the diverse interests in the (BELOW). this exercise was to "look at the alternatives". aviation debate can work together and the how aviation and Several senior Tories say Heathrow must expand, but others, the planning regime interact." It ends on 31st October. including London Mayor Boris Johnson, oppose the idea. The aviation industry and the media bemoaned the delay in the more controversial part of the consultation, in which they The CBI Chief Policy Director, said: are more interested - south east airport capacity, and perhaps a “The decision to set up an independent commission to look at new runway or even runways. This capacity issue has been so how we can increase our aviation capacity is good news, and contentious, and caused such internal difficulties for the should lead to a robust and lasting solution. Coalition government, that it is postponed till an unknown “The capacity crunch is already biting for businesses, and a autumn date - probably around mid September. lack of direct links to destinations in growing markets hampers The delay to the second part of the consultation is not a our ability to trade overseas, so this commission should look at huge problem, but the current consultation is absolutely key, all the options. because it is the basic document which will set overall policy; if “Howard Davies is a good choice for the job. The commis- and where expansion is needed (the second paper) will fall sion will understandably want to take a long, hard look at this, within that framework.” I

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Appendix D: Land assembly

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Appendix E: Stansted Cellular City

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Appendix F: Eco-towns Delivery Consortium

In 2008 Brian Waters brought together the Eco-towns Delivery Consortium which includes Savills, Sir Terry Farrell, Grosvenor and others and they developed thinking about how ‘patient investment’ might be used again in the tradition of the ‘Great Estates’ to bring a long-term investment foundation to new towns but not dependent on public finance (Appendix J).

as reported in the Estates Gazette [excerpt]:

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Appendix G: Cost of extending Crossrail to Stansted

 10km tunnel Stratford to Fairlop Waters £1.5bn.  25 km surface railway Hog Hill to Sawbridgeworth Stansted £750m.

 Upgrades to existing railway Sawbridgeworth-Stansted/ Cambridge £200m.

 Central London station improvements £300m.

 Total cost about £3bn. Sawbridgeworth

 Alignment feasibility confirmed by Mott Macdonald study in 2002.

 Minimal property impacts; mostly follows M11.

 For comparison, High Speed 1 (95km line plus three stations) cost about £6bn.

Fairlop Waters

Stratford

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Appendix H: The value proposition

 London is the largest and richest airport market in the world with 6 airports and 135mppa.  Owing to BAA monopoly and regulation, only Heathrow has been developed as a hub airport.  Emerging consensus that a second hub is required to maintain UK pre-eminence.  BAA forced to sell Stansted and Gatwick.  Price to purchase Stansted approx. £1.5bn.  2000 acres adjacent farmland already assembled.  Can expand STN to 50 mppa with 4 runways.  A fast rail link will cost £3bn.  Potential value uplift is £5bn - £10bn, net of costs.  Possible “one stop shop” approval process.  Seeking to form a consortium to work to develop the Stansted Hub and Aerotropolis.

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Brian Waters MA DipArch DipTP RIBA MRTPI ppACA FRSA The Boisot Waters Cohen Partnership Studio Lexham, 17 Lexham Mews W8 6JW

+44 (0) 2079382557

Brian MOBILE: 07957 871477 [email protected] [email protected] www.bwcp.co.uk

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