Methodology & Data Sources

METHODOLOGY & DATA SOURCES February 2016

This documents details the methodology and the data sources of the China Water Risk – IRENA paper published on 25 February 2016 and titled: “Water Use in China’s Power Sector – Impact of Renewables and Cooling Technologies to 2030”. The scenario analysis was conducted by China Water Risk using existing water policies and IRENA energy development scenarios.

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WATER USE IN CHINA’S POWER SECTOR IMPACT OF RENEWABLES AND COOLING TECHNOLOGIES TO 2030

This brief examines the expected impact of China’s power sector on water and climate in 2030. Building on plans announced at COP21 in Paris and earlier analyses by China Water Risk and IRENA, it assesses the impact of different options for China’s power mix in 2030 on water use and carbon emissions.

The analysis finds that a power sector transformation driven by renewables would also yield benefits in areas related to water. The magnitude of these effects reaffirms the importance of integrated water and energy decisionmaking in the power sector. Indeed, tomorrow’s water resources should be considered as part of energy decisions today.

The paper can be found online at: http://irena.org/publications http://chinawaterrisk.org/resources/research-reports.

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SCOPE

In the paper, water consumption and withdrawal refer to the amount of freshwater consumed and withdrawn by thermal power plants (coal, oil, natural gas), nuclear power plants, geothermal and solar PV panels. Wind turbines are considered to require no water during the power generation phase. The water use related to equipment manufacturing (e.g. power plants, wind turbines, solar panel) as well as coal and natural gas extraction are not considered in this study. For more details on life-cycle analysis of water use for power generation, see for instance (Feng, Hubacek, Siu, & Li, 2014) and (Zhang & Anadon, 2013).

WATER WITHDRAWAL AND CONSUMPTION INTENSITY

This section describes the source and assumption made to estimate the water intensity levels i.e. the amount of water withdrawn (or consumed) per unit of electricity generated.

2013 For thermal power generation (which includes coal, natural gas and oil), we use water intensity levels indicated by (Zhang, Zhong, Fu, Wang, & Wu, 2016). This study provides values of freshwater consumption and withdrawal across different cooling types (once-through, wet closed-loop, dry cooling and seawater) in 2011. We assume similar water intensity levels in 2013. For other power types, we consider (Macknick, Newmark, Heath, & Hallett, 2011). As explained in the paper, no freshwater withdrawal or consumption is assumed for hydropower. Indeed, dams and reservoirs are often used for multiple purposes, including irrigation, water supply and flood control. Evaporative losses can therefore not be attributed entirely to power generation. We assume that coastal nuclear power plants (which represent 100% of China’s nuclear power in 2013) do not consume nor withdraw any freshwater. The freshwater consumption and withdrawal of inland nuclear power plants are in turn considered in the 2030 scenarios. The Table 1 lists the water intensity values considered in this study.

Power type Cooling type/ Withdrawal Consumption technology [m3/MWh] [m3/MWh] Thermal (average of coal, natural Wet closed-loop 2.51 2.01 gas and oil power plants) Dry cooling 0.39 0.39 Once-through 99.51 0.35 Seawater 0.44 0.44 Geothermal Wet closed-loop 0.04 0.04 Solar CSP Through 3.27 3.27 Solar PV - 0.1 0.1 Wind - 0 0

Table 1 - Water withdrawal and consumption factors across power types for existing power generation in 2013

2013-2030 The power plants built after 2013 are assumed to be more efficient than the existing fleet. As a consequence, the water intensity levels of different cooling types are lower than their 2013 national average. The Table 2 lists the water intensity levels considered for the additional power generation capacity.

Water consumption for coal power plants is based on China’s Clean Production standard (NDRC, MEP, & MIIT, 2015). The figures represent the advanced performance level, which will progressively be required in large coal bases and in regions suffering severe water stress (NEA, MEP, & MIIT, 2014). These values are significantly lower than average consumption figures and hence represent an aggressive improvement over existing water consumption levels. Since no water withdrawal value is given in the standards, we assume a 85% ratio between withdrawal and consumption for the wet closed-loop option. Similar ratios is often observed across existing water intensity levels - see for instance (Qin, Curmi, Kopec, Allwood, & Richards, 2015) and (Zhang et al., 2016).

Water use for inland nuclear power is estimated using data of the three Westinghouse AP1000 already planned in China (Ding, Wang, & Huang, 2014). For other power types, we adopt water intensity values from (Macknick et al., 2011).

Power type Cooling type/ Consumption Withdrawal technology (m3/MWh) (m3/MWh) Wet closed-loop 1.49 1.75 Coal Dry cooling 0.31 0.31 Natural Gas (combined cycle) Wet closed-loop 0.75 0.96 Geothermal Wet closed-loop 0.04 0.04 Nuclear (inland power plants) Wet closed-loop 3.13 4.40 Solar CSP Through 3.27 3.27 Solar PV - 0.1 0.1 Wind - 0 0

Table 2 - Water withdrawal and consumption factors across power types for additional power between 2013 and 2030

COOLING TYPES

The choice of cooling types for the additional power plants has a substantial impact on the water use for power generation. For the power generation capacity added during 2013-2030, we adopt the following assumptions:

 No additional power plant will use once-through cooling. This technology is not suited for dry Northern provinces where most of the additional coal power plants are expected to be built. In Southern provinces, this technology is progressively being banned (Xiang & Jia, 2016). Main reasons pertain to its impacts on ecosystems and the so-called thermal pollution that already affects rivers and coastal areas. Once- through cooling is also more sensitive to heat-waves than wet closed-loop systems.  All the aditional coal power plants are assumed to be built in the provinces hosting the 18 large coal power bases indentified in China policy documents. The additional capacity is split porpotionally to the existing power generation capacity of these provinces. In provinces with extremely-high baseline water stress, dry-cooling will be adopted as recommended by the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR, 2013). In other provinces, the local rate of dry-cooling will be used. Remaining power plants are considered to adopt wet closed-loop.  All additional natural gas power plants will be of the combined cycle type and will adopt wet closed-loop cooling technology; and  All the inland nuclear power plants will use wet closed-loop technology.

The resulting share of cooling types among the additional power plants are presented in the Table 3. It should be noted that the share of dry-cooling among additional coal power plants is an upper estimate. It is indeed uncertain that all the additional power plants in highly water stressed areas will adopt this cooling technology.

Wet Power type Dry cooling Once-through Seawater Closed-loop Coal 32% 68% - - Geothermal 100% - - - Natural Gas 100% - - - Nuclear 27% - - 73% Solar CSP 100% - - -

Table 3 – Share of cooling types across power types for additional power between 2013 and 2030

POWER GENERATION

2013 PROVINCIAL POWER GENERATION 2013 data for provincial power generation is extracted from the China Electric Power Yearbook 2014 edited by the China Electricity Council (CEC, 2014).

2030 NATIONAL POWER GENERATION Power generation scenarios until 2030 are those of IRENA’s report Renewable Energy Prospects: China (IRENA, 2014). The Table 4 details the power generation mix as indicated in this report:

Power type Reference 2030 REmap 2030 (TWh) (TWh) Biomass 192 358 Coal 5099 4269 Geothermal 9 9 Hydro 1600 1600 Natural gas 663 663 Nuclear 878 878 Ocean / Tide / Wave 0 0 Oil 12 12 Solar CSP 18 46 Solar PV 197 445 Wind offshore 182 158 Wind onshore 465 1105 Total 9315 9543 Table 4 - Power generation mix scenarios in 2030

The share of additional nuclear power plants that will be built in inland areas (and hence relying on freshwater) is estimated from (World Nuclear Association, 2015).

CARBON EMISSIONS

Carbon emissions of different power types are based on (Feng et al., 2014). Values consider the whole life-cycle of the power generation. These are shown in Table 5.

Power Type Carbon emissions (g/kWh) Coal 1230 Oil 1213.4 Natural Gas 855.9 Solar PV 76.3 Wind 46.4 Nuclear 17.1 Hydro 13.2 Table 5 - Life-cycle carbon emission of power generation in China (Feng et al., 2014)

The specific carbon emissions (i.e. per kWh) of different power types are considered constant through to 2030, except for coal. In the latter case, the direct carbon emissions of power plants are assumed to decrease in line with the officialy targeted efficiency improvement (i.e. from 321gce/kWh in 2013 to 310gce/kWh in 2020). This results in a specific carbon emission of coal-fired power generation of 1167.2g/kWh in 2030.

BASELINE WATER STRESS

Baseline water stress geo-referenced data is coming from the World Resources Institute’s Aqueduct project. Methodology and data can be found in (Gassert, Landis, Luck, Reig, & Shiao, 2014). In this paper, we agregate the baseline water stress at the provincial level using an area-weighted approach.

REFERENCES

CEC. (2014). China Electric Power Yearbook 2014. Ding, X., Wang, W., & Huang, G. (2014). A Two-Step Water-Management Approach for Nuclear Power Plants in Inland China. Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 4(4), 184–202. Feng, K., Hubacek, K., Siu, Y. L., & Li, X. (2014). The energy and water nexus in Chinese electricity production: A hybrid life cycle analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 39, 342–355. Gassert, F., Landis, M., Luck, M., Reig, P., & Shiao, T. (2014). Aqueduct Global Maps 2.1. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Retrieved from http://www.wri.org/publication/aqueduct-global-maps-21 IRENA. (2014). Renewable Energy Prospects: China. Retrieved from http://www.irena.org/remap/IRENA_REmap_China_report_2014.pdf Macknick, J., Newmark, R., Heath, G., & Hallett, K. C. (2011). A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies. MWR. (2013). Water Allocation Plan for the Development of Coal Bases. Retrieved September 24, 2014, from http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/tzgg/tzgs/201312/t20131217_520799.html NDRC, MEP, & MIIT. (2015). Coal Power Plants Cleaner Production Indicator System. Retrieved from http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbgg/201504/t20150420_688586.html NEA, MEP, & MIIT. (2014). Opinions on Promoting the Clean, Efficient Coal Development and Utilization. Retrieved January 20, 2015, from http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/auto85/201501/t20150112_1880.htm Qin, Y., Curmi, E., Kopec, G. M., Allwood, J. M., & Richards, K. S. (2015). China’s energy-water nexus – assessment of the energy sector's compliance with the “3 Red Lines” industrial water policy. Energy Policy, 82, 131–143. van Vliet, M. T. H., Wiberg, D., Leduc, S., & Riahi, K. (2016). Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources. Nature Climate Change, (January). doi:10.1038/nclimate2903 World Nuclear Association. (2015). Nuclear Power in China. Retrieved November 10, 2015, from http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/China--Nuclear-Power/ Xiang, X., & Jia, S. (2016). Estimation and Trend Analysis of Water Demand of Energy Industry in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 31(1), 114–123. Retrieved from http://www.jnr.ac.cn/fileup/PDF/2016-1-114.pdf Zhang, C., & Anadon, L. D. (2013). Life cycle water use of energy production and its environmental impacts in China. Environmental Science & Technology, 47(24), 14459–67. Zhang, C., Zhong, L., Fu, X., Wang, J., & Wu, Z. (2016). Revealing Water Stress by the Thermal Power Industry in China Based on a High Spatial Resolution Water Withdrawal and Consumption Inventory. Environmental Science & Technology, 50(4), 1642–1652.

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China Water Risk (CWR) is a nonprofit initiative dedicated to addressing business & environmental risk arising from China’s urgent water crisis. We aim to foster efficient and responsible use of China’s water resources by engaging the global business and investment communities. As such, we facilitate discussion amongst industry leaders, investors, experts & scientists on understanding & managing water risk across six industry sectors which are either water intensive and/or highly polluting. They are Agriculture, Power, Mining, Food & Beverage, Textiles and Electronics. However, we believe that sectoral water risks cannot be considered and that an unsiloed approach to the challenges China faces relative to water is critical. Examples of these include trade-offs within the water-energy-climate nexus, water-energy-food nexus as well as managing China’s development and economic mix with limited water. To this end, CWR encourages a comprehensive view of water risks and has been commissioned by financial institutions to conduct research analyzing the impact of water risks across sectors. These reports have been considered groundbreaking and instrumental in understanding trade-offs in China’s search for socio- economic growth with limited water resources. Join the discussion today, visit us at www.chinawaterrisk.org

CWR’S WORK IN THE WATER-ENERGY-CLIMATE NEXUS

Water increasingly is interlinked with climate issues and the Water-Energy-Climate Nexus is an integral part of CWR’s work in promoting a comprehensive view on water risks. As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG), China plays a central role in this global nexus for it needs to add significant power with limited water resources. Power generation in China is the largest contributor to GHG emissions as well as the largest user of industrial water. Not only does no water = no power, we also require power to clean and distribute water. Moreover, water resources are vulnerable to climate change from melting glaciers and unpredictable rain to droughts & floods. Balancing the right mix of power for both climate and water is thus crucial for a water secure China. As the upper riparian of many of Asia’s transboundary rivers, the future of China’s energy mix does not just impact China’s water; it has regional watershed implications and global climate ramifications. Please contact us if you would like to work with us in this nexus at [email protected]

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